Tuesday, February 2, 2021

Global Top 20 - December 2020

 

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Models: Tesla Model 3 three-peats in Record Year


After a rough start of the year, the second half of 2020 has become a records fest, with 3 record months in the last 4, with December being one of them, with over half a million registrations.

With plugin registrations jumping 105% last month, it was the first time since 1411 2011 that we had 3 consecutive months (October, November & December) of doubling sales, with is a great sign for what 2021 could be.

While BEVs were a hot item last month, jumping 81%, to a record 407.000 units, PHEVs were even hooter, shooting 205% in December, allowing them to end the year with 31% of plugin sales, up 5% from the 26% of 2019, giving credit to those that say that PHEVs will still be around for a while.

December's brilliant result has allowed the the full 2020 numbers to increase 41% regarding 2019, a step above the 2019 growth rate (+10%), and an (almost) return to the 50%-ish growth rates that plugins have experienced historically, since start of the Third Age of the Electric Car started, back in 2011. 

With the overall automotive market in the red (-14% in 2020), added to the amazing recovery of plugins on the second half of 2020, the December PEV share jumped to a record 6.9% share (4.9% BEV), pulling the final 2020 plugin share to 4% (2.8% BEV), results that are well above the 2.5% plugin share (1.9% BEV) of 2019.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its share on the way, to some 6-7% in 2021, and in 2022...The Disruption Zone will happen, with the first two-digit scores. 




The high tide mode Tesla Model 3 won another monthly Best Seller title, with over 65.000 deliveries, a new record, while the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored another record 33.489 units last month, its 6th record score in a row, although it seems the tiny EV seems to be hitting a plateau of 30.000-something deliveries, which could be related to production constraints or reaching its demand limits.

The surprise of the month came in Third, with the VW ID.3 jumping to the podium for the first time, thanks to a record (and somewhat unexpected) 28.000 registrations in December, such high number could be related to the EU's CO2 emission compliance rules, so we will have to see if the German hatchback will be able to replicate this performance soon...Say, in March?

In the remaining positions of this Top 5 we have the #4 Renault Zoe and #5 Tesla Model Y, that have beaten their personal records too. 

Just outside this Top 5, a mention to two other EVs scoring five-digit scores, with the Hyundai Kona EV scoring an unexpected 12.000 registrations, which could be its last record score in a long time, considering the upcoming arrival of the much awaited Hyundai Ioniq 5, that could seriously hamper the sales of its smaller sibling, while the 7th model above the 10.000 registrations in December (a year ago, only two models, the Tesla Model 3 and BAIC EU-Series, got there) was Great Wall's ORA Black Cat (formerly known as the R1), that has received a second youth with the renaming. A model to follow closely in 2021... 




On the final 2020 table, the Tesla Model 3 won its 3rd consecutive Best Seller award, with no real competition in sight, so it looks 2021 could be its 4th title in a row, which would equal the number of titles that the Nissan Leaf has won so far (2011, 2013, '14 and 2016).

The Wuling Mini EV secured the Silver medal, beating BAIC's EU-Series yearly score (111k) and becoming the Chinese EV with highest score in one year, while also winning the Rookie of the Year title, ahead of heavyweights like the Tesla Model Y or VW ID.3.

The Renault Zoe earned the Bronze medal, its first podium finish ever, which says a lot about the progress of the French EV, that has been around since 2012.

Something its Japanese relative, the Nissan Leaf, can't say the same, currently the most medalled EV in active service, with 7 podium positions, 4 of them as Best Seller, was down to 7th in 2020, having seen its sales drop by 19% regarding 2019, in an overall recovering market. 

If some go down, other rise to the occasion, like is the case of the Tesla Model Y, that started its career in 4th, missing the opportunity to have two Teslas in the podium, a feat that has been eluding the Californian maker since the beggining. Or anyone else, for that matter... 

In December, the Climber of the Month was the VW ID.3, that jumped from #19 in November to #6 in the last stage of the race, allowing it to join the Top 10 and become the Best Selling plugin in its class, but more on that later...

Other position changes benefited small Chinese EVs, with the Baojun E-Series climbing to #9, the Great Wall ORA Black Cat jumping to #10 and the Chery eQ reaching #17, underlining the most recent trend in China: The Rise of City EVs. But more on that later...

On the PHEV side, the 2020 Best Seller trophy went to the VW Passat PHEV, that thanks to strong results in both China and Europe, allowed the German midsizer to win the category title, a first for the German conglomerate. 

Interestingly, the Best Selling PHEV was only #12 in 2020, while in the previous year, we had 2 plugin hybrids in the Top 10 (BMW 530e/Le and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV), and this despite PHEVs had increased their share in 2020, this can be explained by the much greater model diversity currently on offer, with makes the sales to be distributed more evenly among the several models on the market.

On the second half of the table, the Peugeot 208 EV was ousted from the table by the Li Xiang One, with the startup model reaching the #20 position right in its first year on the market, which could be a good omen for the future.

Finally, outside the Top 20, one model deserves a special mention, with the rising BYD Han EV (29k units in 2020) ending the year on high note (9.000 units!) so the flagship BYD is looking to become a familiar face in the 2021 table. Inclusively if we were to add the PHEV version to the tally, the extra 11.500 units would allow the big BYD to be #16 this year, ahead of the BMW 530e/Le and only behind the 2020 Full size Best Seller, the Audi e-Tron. Not bad for a model that only landed during the summer...But more on that later.




Manufacturers: Tesla 3-peets the title 


The high-tide mode Tesla managed to win another monthly Best Seller title in December, and with a record to boot (91k), while Volkswagen has managed to beat the SGMW joint-venture for the first time since September, while Mercedes was pushing the pedal to the metal in December, in order to comply with the EU's CO2 emission rules, allowing it to be #4 in December, with an amazing 32.000 units.

After a walk in the park in 2020, Tesla repeated its 2018 and 2019 Best Seller titles, with the Califonian now having 3 titles in the bag, as much as Nissan (2011, 2013 and 2014) and BYD (2015 to 2017), so it looks that Tesla will go ahead of those two in 2021, as it looks no one is in position to challenge Tesla for the 2021 title.

Volkswagen won its first podium position in 2020, which is not bad (it's actually quite good), considering they were still in the Year Zero of their Plan to Rule the EV World, while a recovering BYD won its 6th podium position in row, even if it lost the runner-up position it had in 2019, to a rising Volkswagen.

The SGMW joint-venture was up one spot in December, to #4, relegating BMW to 5th, just ahead of a rising Mercedes, of the German Three Marys (Audi, BMW, Mercedes), the Three-pointed-star looks to be the most dynamic in the present days, and with several models to launch in 2021, just BEVs, we will have the EQA, EQB and EQS, expect it to beat the other two by a reasonable margin, while trying its luck for a Top 5 spot.

By the way, in a record month, there were record galore, 16 in this Top 20, to be exact, besides the aforementioned, Shanghai Auto (SAIC) scored over 20.000 units in December, allowing it to climb one position, to #10, highlighting another great month for the SAIC Group (in the same month, SGMW was up to #4), while Chery was up to #18, thanks to a record 8,962 registrations

Even Nissan had a good month, with the 8.590 units of December being its best score since November 2018, pulling the Japanese brand to #14, just 7 spots below its #7 position in 2019... 

Interestingly, Porsche (5.662 units, new record) and NIO (record 7.007 units) have kept their Top 20 positions, a small feat for what are niche brands.




SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.



Category leaders

Here's a look at the 2020 segment winners:


A segment / City Cars - This is all about Chinese EVs: The Wuling Mini EV is miles ahead of the competition, followed by the Baojun E-Series and Great Wall ORA Black Cat. Which says a lot on who will be in the pole position when (and if) autonomous pods become a thing. Back to 2021, the only non-Chinese EV with any fighting chances to run with the best will be the Fiat  500e, that plays in a different, more Premium-oriented, class;


B segment / Subcompacts - Renault Zoe (100k units), followed by the Hyundai Kona EV at some distance, while in 3rd we have the Peugeot 208 EV, that with 32k deliveries, it was somewhat below expectations. Maybe the main difference between the two French arch-rivals has to do with the level of commitment of each maker regarding EVs?


C segment / Compacts - The Volkswagen ID.3 (57k) stole the show in the last stage of the race from the usual winner, the Nissan Leaf (56k). Another change regarded the GAC Aion S, that profited from the career end of the VW e-Golf to surpass the German EV and take the category Bronze medal;


D segment / Midsize - Tesla Model 3 (365k). Followed by another Tesla (Model Y - 80k). Far from these two, we have the VW Passat PHEV (45k). And if we exclude PHEVs, then the 3rd best becomes the Jaguar i-Pace, that just managed to beat the Mercedes EQC (17k vs 16k), with the high priced Sports SUV benefitting from a peak in December (record 4.868 units) to surpass the German SUV.


E/F segments / Fullsize - Audi e-Tron (48k), is the new Top Dog, ahead of last year winner BMW 530e/Le (41k) and the rising Li Xiang One (33k). And if we were to consider the BYD Han EV and PHEV versions counted together, then we would have the big BYD with the Silver medal, which considering that the large sedan only landed in the summer, it is an awesome performance, making it the strongest candidate to the category 2021 title. Counting only BEVs, then we would have the Tesla Model X (33k) in 2nd, followed by the BYD Han EV (29k), that would stay ahead of the Tesla Model S (22k) and the niche Porsche Taycan (20k). For 2021, with the e-Tron suffering from internal competition (Audi Q4 e-Tron...), the title is very much open, if the Model X is expected to rebound (48k?), the first full year of the BYD Han EV could propell it to some 50k-60k in the whole of 2021, and don't forget the Li Xiang One, that has been a sort of Dark Horse, doing its own thing without much noise, so expect a 3 horse race in what promises to be one of the most exciting races in 2021. 

81 comments:

  1. What a bright year for EVs)

    Looks like Tesla is going to be №1 both in 2021 and 2022. It was really hard to believe 3 or 4 years ago) Elon is amazing)

    ReplyDelete
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    1. All the numbers show that VW Group will overtake Tesla in Q4 2021. 2022 it will be way ahead of Tesla.

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    2. The lead in 2021 will mainly depend on who have secured enough batteries, been the actual limiting factor for how many EV's are made.
      Big utility batteries as well as home batteries are competing for the very same capacity and gaining momentum. It will very difficult to forecast EV sales growth unless we fully understand the allocation dynamics for battery manufacturing capacity, as well as the average battery pack size evolution.

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    3. What numbers are those? Tesla are aiming for something like 250K in Q4 2021. Will VW Group have enough batteries to compete with that? Which volume models will they have for the Chinese and North American markets? If it's going to be ID4 only it's doesn't seem to enough.

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    4. 2021 should see Tesla in #1, with the VW Group coming closer, as for 2022...No idea :-)

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    5. @Unknown the amount of cells currently used in stationary storage is tiny compared to automotive. Even if it grows quickly, it won't affect EV cell availability in the foreseeable future.

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    6. @Ursus latest ambition I heard from VW group is for 3 million EVs per year by 2025. You think that translates to more than the 1.5 million or so Tesla will deliver in 2022?...

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    7. I concurs with you José on this, but I think that the ID3 has a shot of beating the Model 3 in 2021 as I think that the Model 3 will suffer from Model Y sales and I don't see it selling more than 300.000 in 2021. At the contrary, the ID3 have a lot of space to grow in Europe as a substitute of the ICE Golf as the most sold passenger car in Europe. So maybe, these two will have a very interesting finish lane race in December 2021 (300.000 Model 3 and 301.000 ID3 ? :))

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    8. I think people are grossly overestimating the ID.3's near-term potential. VW itself recently mentioned an ambition of a mere "over 100,000" for this year...

      Looking at it another way, the Zoe -- cousin to the best-selling Clio -- reached 100,000 last year. That is likely about its near-term potential, without revised models or further incentive increases. The ID.3 should be able to do a bit more than that, being in an even more popular segment, and having better technology (thanks to a dedicated BEV platform) -- but how much? 150,000 maybe?...

      Longer-term potential of course is bigger, as BEVs keep cutting into combustion car sales -- but that won't be for several years. Medium-term, it might see a bit of a boost from introduction in China late this year: but I'm not sure it will be all that competitive with all the local makers in China...

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    9. @antrik
      I think the recent mention about having an ambition of "over 100.000" for this year was about the ID4.
      For the ID3, several assembly lines are coming on line this year.
      Sure, maybe I'm too optimistic, but at least 200.000 ID3 should be possible.
      Maybe, it is me being too much hungry to see us be ride of ICE cars, and the ICE Golf are the right one to be substitute by the ID3 quickly...as long the public is sensibilize to do so!

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    10. @Marsusul: "ID3 have a lot of space to grow in Europe as a substitute of the ICE Golf"

      I wish this happens, at least the buyers of Golf Diesel should consider ID3. I still wish VW sells ID3 in USA with Golf discontinued. That way they can boost their sales here, which has been very low all along.

      Delete
    11. @ID.3 in China: Do not expect much from it in China, compact hatchbacks are not "a thing" there, so their sales won't be even close to those of the ID.4...

      And VW knows it, that's why they betted on the ID.4 to land first.

      The 2021 ID.6 SUV and 2022 ID.5 sedan will be more important players in China that the ID.3

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    12. @Jose: In china, also the crossovers have 47% market share and has overtaken cars, the other small %age of 6-7 is held by MPV which is just a different name for crossovers. Among this 46% share of cars, there are many hatches/wagons though not as much as in europe, at the same time, not as less as in usa.

      And what about these minicars like wuling, black cat, eq, they are wagon style cars, not sedan/coupe. Pretty soon, those MPVs will be restyled and classified as crossovers. In same way, the wagons will also be raised to be classified as crossovers. So ID.3 should sell well. Ideally they should call it a crossover because of its 5 door / 1.500+ mm height.

      Before ICE age ends, sedan/coupe age could end. they are not-so functional vehicles. Very recently Kia discontinued Cadenza & K900 sedans in USA.

      Delete
  2. DoggydogworldFebruary 02, 2021

    VW Group sold more EVs than Tesla in Q4, 190k to 180k. Third place went to SAIC Group (incl SGMW) with a little over 160k.

    Both challengers grew much faster than Tesla last year and carry a lot of momentum into 2021. But Tesla plans to grow well over 50% this year in an effort to remain #1.

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    Replies
    1. Well, if you decide to produce a lot of cars just to stand and wait until the software is finish, you will get a lot of deliveries in a short time. It also means that he number of deliveries don't correspond to your production capacity. Otherwise we can decide to only look at December and say that Tesla won by a lot.

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    2. VW Group wants to sell 600,000 BEVs in 2021.
      If they keep delaying deliveries, it will be tough.
      Stellantis is well positioned in Europe for 2021, but not worldwide.
      Will be an interesting race.

      Delete
    3. @Victor: Very valid point, VW has been producing ID.3 since 2019-11, we dont know what is their production capacity. the sales in 1st 2 months of 2021 will say and its the trio of suppliers, VW and its dealers who have to put their efforts.

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  3. What a wonderful globe.
    2020 takes top-4 out of top-12
    In top-12; 2020 takes 7; 2019 takes 3; 2018 takes 2. Much more successful year.

    Top-3 months are
    2020-12: 571.475
    2020-11: 414.368
    2020-09: 345.519

    Next 9 months are
    2020-10: 341.531
    2018-12: 286.367
    2019-12: 279.214
    2019-06: 264.591
    2020-07: 247.575
    2020-08: 240.981
    2018-11: 237.553
    2020-06: 229.894
    2019-03: 224.335

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  4. Congratulations to Tesla, VW, BYD, SGMW for joining and putting up a best performance.
    Tesla 499.647 sales is more than remarkable and all these are BEVs with all of them having 400 + km range (WLTP). I think in earnings call, Tesla said 499.647

    2021 may see some turbulence because of subsidy cuts, but that should be compensated by economic recovery. However, the year may only witness 50% increase because of battery constraints. If more people prefer smaller cars, then there could be a big increase in sales.

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  5. @Jose Pontes: In the beginning of 2020, you estimated 3,6 million PEVs in 2020. Because of virus, it came to 3,1 million, otherwise it could have hit 3,5 million and thats very close. Good estimation.

    What is your estimate for 2021. Conservatively I will say 4,5 million. Anybody wants to guess.

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    Replies
    1. Covid willing, i believe the market will return to the 50%-ish growth rates, so around 4,5 million in 2021 would be a safe bet.

      Delete
    2. Europe will likely be below two million; US maybe half a million. To reach 4.5 million globally, China and the rest of the world would need more than two million... Not impossible: but rather optimistic I'd say.

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  6. Will a comparison by automotive groups possibly be published later ? (Stellantis, VAG etc)

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  7. "Maybe the main difference between the two French arch-rivals has to do with the level of commitment of each maker regarding EVs"

    There's also the fact that PSA had more BEV models (Peugeot e-208/e-2008, Opel/Vauxhall Corsa-e and DS 3 Croosback E-Tense) in that segment while Renault had only Zoe.

    Plus once again I repeat that a larger table (top 30 or something along these lines) would be nice, with market becoming more and more diverse the portion of the market represented in top 20 is becoming smaller and smaller - already more than half sales belong to "Others".

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  8. 8,931 fuelcell vehicles were sold in USA in last 9 years out of which
    2019: 2.089
    2020: 937

    Nice graph, it increased and then decreased. Will it make a turnaround in 2021 with redesigned Mirai. Seems there are plans to launch more hydrogen stations. In any case, the hydrogen will gain only from the mainstream gasoline/petrol vehicle.
    https://insideevs.com/news/482386/us-hydrogen-fuel-cell-car-sales-2020/

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  9. In a way, its good to see more sales of Model 3/Y than Model S/X, since these smaller vehicles have 55 - 80 KWh battery as opposed to those bigger vehicles having 100 KWh.

    Best is the smaller 4 seater cars. 3 cars with 20 KWh battery can be produced in place of 1 car with 60 KWh battery. Smaller car with 20 KWh could go 150 km WLTP.
    Battery supply is constrained, thats why Tesla Semi production is postponed to year end.

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  10. Ooh, just read that redesigned Tesla Model S/X does not have gear stalk and vehicle automatically senses objects and shifts gears accordingly. If you want to override, you can use touch screen. All vehicles with touch screen could have had this feature by giving a
    forward facing arrow - drive
    backward facing arrow - reverse
    circle/square in center - neutral/park

    By the way, in automatic car, neutral is rarely used.
    And the steering rectangle has a cartoon image of an elephant with those 2 buttons (eyes).

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AIUI there are actually dedicated "force touch" controls for the gear selection. You don't have to use the touchscreen.

      Delete
  11. @Jose Pontes: Thanks for publishing all this data. I see slight discrepancy.
    If I count the Tesla brand sales of the 12 months of 2020, I get 501.935. But in earnings call, they mentioned 499.647 units.

    2020-01 : 12779
    2020-02 : 16276
    2020-03 : 60131
    2020-04 : 14793
    2020-05 : 24607
    2020-06 : 49765
    2020-07 : 32956
    2020-08 : 42887
    2020-09 : 65814
    2020-10 : 35968
    2020-11 : 54566
    2020-12 : 91393
    Total :501935

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. These are estimates, that get adjusted further as new data comes in after being posted here...

      Delete
  12. Seems natgas is facing trouble and the big oil talks hydrogen. There is plan even to heat homes using hydrogen. Can it be used for cooking as well. While natgas moves slowly in the air; hydrogen rises fast.
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/natural-gas-peril-pipeline-owners-090007907.html

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    Replies
    1. It's certainly possible technically... It just doesn't make sense financially, when it needs new appliances/heaters; major investments in the grid; and has much higher energy costs too. (At least if produced in a sustainable fashion...)

      Just switch to heat pumps and electric stoves already.

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    2. @antrik: European homes use piped gas(methane) or cylinder gas(LPG) ?. Sending gas thru pipes is very efficient.

      But LPG cylinders: for every 1 kg of gas, the cylinder(steel) may weigh 1 kg while the truck that delivers it may weigh 1kg for every 1 kg of gas. So to move 1kg of gas, you need another 2 kg of cylinder & truck.
      So wherever the cylinder gas is used, its better those homes switch over to electricity or piped methane gas. The saved LPG can be moved to transport to reduce diesel consumption.

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    3. Transporting electricity is way more efficient than transporting natural gas -- and hydrogen is way worse still than natural gas...

      In each case though, transport efficiency is a minor factor for overall efficiency.

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  13. ICE vehicle sales went down in 2019 (trade war) and 2020 (virus), but there could be a significant rebound in 2021 because of economic recovery and increasing sales in developing world. At best 10% increase, but in unit terms, this could be very high.

    Note that oil companies are acquiring companies/labs creating super efficient engines. Oil companies want vehicles to be more efficient without using any battery. They will market it as low cost fuel efficient option though ICE can never match a motor in efficiency. We have to see how this plays out.

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    1. Combustion engines are already fairly close to their theoretical limit. Hybrids can boost this further to some degree, by making sure the engine *always* works near the optimum. But beyond that, there is not much room for further improvement...

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  14. For 2020-12, BEVs taking top-13 and not top-11, Passat PHEV came to 12 because of YTD sales,
    #12 is Chery eQ with 7.074
    #13 is MG eZs EV with 5.940

    And the #1 title for PHEVs goes to Li Xiang One with 6.126 sales. Its 180 km NEDC = 120 km WLTP which is still great. This pushes the plugins with 50 km like Passat, 5 Series, Outlander to the rear. All the growth of plugins came because of very high subsidies given by europe artificially to promote them, this wont last long. Ideally automakers should reduce the price of plugins, increase their range and sell it to active users who want to charge the battery every day.

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    Replies
    1. That's "only" top 11 BEVs in December as well. The Li One was above the MG eZS, as well as the Aion S.

      Delete
  15. 185 Ford MachE found homes in Europe (crossing American roads, Atlantic and European roads) while only 3 found homes in America (Crossing American roads). How is this possible. In USA, it gets $7.500 rebate. All this shows that automakers rush to subsidy rich markets to swallow all the subsidies. Something needs to be done to cut it drastically.

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    Replies
    1. None of these found "homes". These are clearly just demonstration units.

      And it's obviously not about subsidies, when they actually get more in the US than in the vast majority of European countries... The actual difference is the fleet emission mandate. And there is nothing wrong with that -- except that the US clearly needs to step up theirs...

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  16. Power generation in USA is getting cleaner, In 1st 11 months of 2020.
    Coal fell from 23,6% to 19,0%
    Natgas rose from 38,4% to 40,7%
    Solar rose from 1,8% to 2,3%
    Other renewable rose from 8,8% to 10,2%

    There was a big change in 2020-11 with Solar hitting 2,0% and other renewable hitting 13,2%, Winter is low for solar and high for wind. All this is good for BEVs which has been criticized as running on coal. However the fracked natgas replacing coal is not very good since all natgas drilling is done by oil companies which are gaining monopoly on power gen in addition to transport. Big oil suppressed all efforts to run vehicles on natgas and instead used the natgas to replace coal.

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  17. 41% growth is actually much in line with the long-term average of the past eight years... Sure, several years had 50% or so -- but others had less.

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  18. I'm sceptical about seeing 10% world-wide share in 2022. Some months, sure (maybe even late this year?...) -- but for the whole year, it doesn't seem likely. Europe will see another strong growth in 2021, but will largely stall after that. US might accelerate, but probably not enough to make a large difference for the global tally. China is hard to say, with their unpredictable incentive changes: but the government doesn't seem interested in a repeat of the crazy growth we have seen a few years back...

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  19. The Wuling hitting a plateau might also be related to other models arriving in that price range?...

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  20. I'm not sure ID.3 will be able to repeat that result for a long time... Presumably, registrations in the future will be much smoother -- at a way lower level. While it might ultimately be able to reach the 300,000 per year or so needed for hitting such monthly scores without one-time effects, I don't think this will happen soon.

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  21. It happened: we got a BEV-only top 10! Yay!

    And that's just the beginning. How long until we see a BEV-only top 20? Will renewed efforts to create *serious* PHEVs, like the Li One, see sustained success? Will European politics keep senselessly propping up subsidy-leaching emission mandate-defeating low-effort PHEVs?...

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  22. While Audi is only introducing two new BEV models this year (Q4 and e-tron GT) to Mercedes's three, the MEB-based Q4 should see *much* better sales than the mediocre expensive EQA and EQB combustion car conversions... If Mercedes keeps ahead, that's only because of their large lineup of low-effort PHEVs.

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  23. A strong position in city EVs says absolutely nothing about who will have a strong position in autonomous mobility. While it's likely that we will see many small autonomous vehicles for single and two-person rides, these will nevertheless be comfortable and spacious -- not some cramped shitboxes. The cost of the base vehicle will be minor compared to the cost of the autonomous technology and the cost of operation -- nobody will want to ride in a crappy vehicle just for marginally lower fares...

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    Replies
    1. @antrik: I suggest you take a bus ride or the rickshaw ride in a developing country, then you will know how good these econoboxes are. Certainly these smaller mini evs are good for many.

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    2. @antrik: We will see. And adding to what Famlin said, Europe and North America's population are only a fraction of the World's population.

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    3. In developing countries, rickshaws will likely remain the cheaper option for quite some time... Which just means there is even less of a market for crappy autonomous vehicles, that are barely cheaper than more comfortable and spacious ones, and still more expensive than rickshaws...

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    4. They cannot leave rickshaw ride and buy a Taycan. But a mini ev costing around $5.000 is within the affordable range.
      Wagon which use the trunk space to the fullest (rising upto roofline).
      Being narrow just enough to fit 4 passengers makes better sense than the compact 4 door sedan/ 2 door coupe where the trunk space is only 50% that of wagon and the 1 passenger space in front is being wasted.
      Mini ev which are shorter in length (600 mm <) and width (300 mm <) cost less, weigh less and takes lesser battery. Rich mock at them, but they utilize the size, material, battery lot more wisely. Put the other way round, they are efficient
      mathematically, physically and economically.

      This segment is popular in japan, now becoming popular in china, expect, india, europe to join soon.

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    5. Dude, we are talking about autonomous fleets here. You totally missed the topic.

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    6. (Also, sedans have less air drag, and behave better in curves. They make perfect sense for those who don't need the extra space of taller vehicles.)

      Delete
  24. Scania quits fuel cell truck effort, but GM joins in. After claiming that they will stop selling ICE vehicles by 2035, GM wants to sell FCVs while at the same time claiming that their Ultium battery is the future. Will they stick with battery or fuelcell or both just like automakers sold both petrol & diesel vehicles. As long as they dump ICE that is good. Both BEV & FCV use the same motor, just the fuelcell & cylinder taking the place of battery & plug.

    On 2021-02-14, GM will reveal the Bolt EUV, they may/may not give complete details, not much was revealed during Cadillac Lyriq & GMC Hummer reveal. Both were short shows. No ideal why they call it Bolt EUV instead of giving a distinct name.

    Another reveal this month is Hyundai Ioniq 5. Whether they will launch it in USA and what will be the price and how many they will sell is?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. @Ioniq 5: Specs seem top notch and pricing is promised to be very competitive, so much so, that might overlap the top Kona EV versions.

      As for availability, as ever with Hyundai-Kia, it is a big unknown...

      Delete
    2. Even if we ignore that fuel cells will never be relevant for land transport, and thus a waste of effort: they are only an ecological option when they get dedicated green hydrogen production, from dedicated renewable electricity generation -- which is rarely the case. When they run on fossil hydrogen, they are way worse than EVs; and in some ways worse even than combustion cars.

      Delete
  25. Seems 23% of VW ID.3 are sitting in used car sales lot in Switzerland. Is this because of self-registration. Is it something that is happening every year or something new with PEV push, regulatory fines and so on. May be other European countries are also doing the same. Do you see any ID.3 near your local dealer. And how about eTron, Taycan.

    Hoping that jan PEV sales will hit at least 300.000 to be higher than any month in 2019 and before. Every automaker will cry about battery shortage. After leader Tesla has postponed Semi & Roadster to 2022 citing shortage of their high capacity 4680 batteries.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They haven't postponed Semi to 2022.

      And Roadster has little to do with cell availability. (It's a low-volume vehicle... It would be the first one to get the new cells, if it was ready in time.)

      Delete
  26. If ~ 7% of worlds vehicles are PEV and another 2% are flex fuel vehicles and another 1% is CNG/LNG, that leaves nearly 90% of the vehicles running on petrofuels like petrol/diesel. Even LPG is considered a petrofuel since any hydrocarbon having more than 1 carbon atom is considered as per the big oil. So its a long way to go for PEVs to make a difference. 2020 is a very different year with pandemic crushing ICE sales while the subsidy for economic boost gave a much needed help to PEV. What will be in 2021 is a big guess. Our hope is declining battery prices and hope the magic $100 / KWh will be attained by end 2022.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. i made some digging and found plugless hybrids sales in 2020. Add that to the 3 million PEVs and we had 8 million vehicles sold in 2020 with some sort of electrification, which means some 10% share for xEVs in 2020!

      Delete
    2. @Jose: Thanks for the info.
      That means nearly
      2,1 million BEV
      1,0 million PHEV
      5,0 million HEV
      Makes sense: Toyota alone would have sold 2 million HEVs with the others contributing the rest.
      Better for HEV to take the share of diesel.

      Delete
  27. Tesla Model S sold 22.000+ units in its 9th model year (2012 is 1st), with the same external body. Only change they made externally is removal of false grill. Rest are all battery increase, range improvements, electronic changes, extra speed/pickup, autonomous driving, interior chages. They kept the price as low as possible.

    So avoiding external redesign could mean cost savings, more range increase and many more internal updates. This is better especially for electric car where range is important. They are smart, after all they are selling 88% of Model S/X with only 12% going to lease. They want to provide value for those who spend their money from their wallet, not the company money that is used for other luxury vehicles. Hope the latest redesign with Plaid & Plaid + will give much needed boost.

    Someone posted in youtube video that.
    Tesla Model S: $120.000 : 0-100 in 1.99 sec : 5 seater : 390 mile/625 km :
    can be purchased for less than the tax paid for
    Bugatti Chiron : $3.000.000 : 0-100 in 2.4 sec : 2 seater : 308 mile/493 km.

    And how about the mileage
    Model S has 117 MPGe / 50 km/le (km per liter equivalent)
    Chiron has 11 MPGe / 4.7 km/le

    And Model S had these battery ranges (40,60,70,75,85,90,100) and sold 310.000+ units while BMW i3 which is much smaller sold 200.000- units.
    Congratulations again Tesla for making a wonderful car. Keep rocking.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Model S 40 was discontinued before it went into production. Those that pre-ordered it got a software-locked S 60 instead.

      Delete
    2. "software-locked S 60 instead", thats what i meant, they can pay $10.000 to unlock and make it 60 KWh. No idea how many paid the price to unlock and how many did not.
      It was a smart move to lock it at that time, something no other automaker thought about. Hope many unlock to see their cars driving extra 50% while Tesla made some money.

      Delete
  28. There is self-registration related fraud in USA also. Kandy K27 probably self-registered to grab the $7.500 fed rebate and another $4.000 California rebate without selling them to customers.
    They priced the car @ $20.000 before subsidies, but its 59 mile / 95 km range is very low and is very tall for its length, width. No idea how many they will sell. This is another reason, US govt should reduce the rebate by 50%. Kandy did not reveal how many K27 they sold here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What's the point in self-registering when they aren't selling or using them?

      Delete
  29. 2020-12: 7 models hitting 5 digit sales with 13 brands hitting 5 digit sales is a remarkable feat.

    2020: 10 brands made 6 digit sales.

    ReplyDelete
  30. Salutations to these great men who made the decade of 2010s a great decade for electric vehicle movement.
    Elon Musk led the actual EV sales from Roadster to Model Y
    Carlos Ghosn launched the Nissan Leaf, Renault Zoe and few other models.
    Herbert Diess who cleaned the VW image from diesel drinker to maker of clean EVs.
    And many others who worked for this.

    ReplyDelete
  31. 3 mini ev making it to top-10 in global sales is remarkable. what is greater is that all these 3 were sold only in china. imagine if these were sold in other countries as well. electric transport is not only about efficiency in terms of motors, but also the size and functionality. in few years, china will have 250 million people who are 60+ and their homes are called empty nest because their children have moved out and the husband & wife needs only a 2 seater. since they may not commute on daily basis, a smaller car with lesser range around 100 - 200 km will do. in japan already 35% of vehicles sold are mini vehicles. europe is also getting older, so wonder the fiat 500e are selling very well there. get ready for mini car revolution. in usa, some companies are selling 3 wheelers like acrimoto, solo ... they are out there to claim that a 3 wheeler can still protect the passengers from sun/rain/snow. lets see how it turns out. i still think that a small 4 wheeler that can seat 4 passengers is more stable.

    ReplyDelete
  32. Bye bye lead battery, Tesla moves to 12V Lithium battery to power lights, media, windows, viper ... Lithium could be costly, but much lighter, lasts longer and lesser weight means slightly more range. It comes in redesigned Model S/X.

    Already Hyundai Ioniq has this feature and the lead battery can be changed from main lithium battery by pressing a button. Concept of dead battery and jump starting will be a thing of the past.
    https://electrek.co/2021/02/02/tesla-model-s-x-get-rid-lead-acid-12v-battery-moves-li-ion/

    ReplyDelete
  33. ID.3, ID.4, Model 3, Model Y all have their own market which is to go after the 90% share of petrol/diesel and no need to compete with 1 another. In some months, there could be a dip, but all those are normal. Contrary to everyones thinking, Model 3 sold 365.240 units last year. Same will happen this year also.

    In 2017, BMW ran ads claiming that you can buy a 3 Series PHEV with 14 mile /23 km range rather than waiting for years. For few months their claim was true when Model 3 ramp up was slow, but starting from 2018-01, Model 3 claimed sales leadership in US, then it went on rolling for global leadership among all PEVs. Despite the subsidy cut, Tesla set records. A car with 420 km range, $38.000 price tag, panoramic roof, 60 km/le is great buy.

    All this talk of 1 EV cannibalizing another EV is the trash talk of the big oil cannibals who want us to keep gas guzzling for another century.

    ReplyDelete
  34. Some of the key players did not play in all 12 months of 2020, but they will play in 2021. They are MiniEV, ID.3, ID.4, Model Y, Han ...

    ReplyDelete
  35. These models played major role from early years.
    Nissan Leaf: 510.000+
    Tesla Model S: 300.000+
    Renault Zoe: 280.000+
    Tesla Model X: 190.000+
    BMW I3: 190.000+
    Last, but not the least
    Chevy Volt: 180.000+ Could have become the leader of the REX World, but GM did not want this technology to succeed. With 80 km range, 500 km petrol range, 5 doors, this is a vehicle for many. Ask how many GM execs have how much investments in oil companies. That is why no one trust when GM talks about BEVs.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Till this day, whenever an "everyday Joe" from outside the EV bubble, asks me for advice for an EV, and i see they are still not ready to go "full BEV", i always advise them to buy a used Chevrolet Volt/Opel Ampera.

      After all these years, they continue to be the best introduction to the EV World in PHEV form.

      Delete
  36. And if you are talking about 2nd generation of EVs, here is the hero of
    "Who killed the electric car"
    GM EV1: 1,117 unit sales (sorry, its leased to be killed later)
    Gen 1 (Lead battery): 660 (16.5–18.7 kWh)
    Gen 2 (Nickel battery): 457 (26.4 kWh)

    Another unsung hero is
    Nissan Altra: worlds # BEV with lithium battery: Leased 320 units only to be crushed later.
    Tesla Roadster: worlds # BEV with lithium battery that has been sold: 2.450 are in worlds roads, luckily these are in the hands of owners and its fetching high prices in auction because these cars have rich history.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. One is in space, though... ;-)

      Delete
  37. @Jose Pontes: Thanks a lot for publishing all these stats. This website could have spread all the good info about rising PEV and contributed to its sales.

    Down the memory lane. Earliest global sales
    Ohh, Tesla sold 2.503 Model S in its 1st year (part year).

    http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/search/label/World?updated-max=2013-05-30T17:12:00Z&max-results=20&start=145&by-date=false

    ReplyDelete
  38. Both Tesla Model 3 and Toyota Camry has the same interior volume (passenger + cargo). This is how it works out to.

    Camry: Starting price: $24,970. Considering $2.5/gallon and 32 MPG
    Fuel cost 10 years: Driven
    120,000 miles: $8,823
    150,000 miles: $11,029
    180,000 miles: $13,235

    Model 3: Starting price: $38,000. Considering 8 cents / KWh and 4.12 miles / KWh
    Fuel cost 10 years: Driven
    120,000 miles: $2,296
    150,000 miles: $2,870
    180,000 miles: $3,444

    Difference for distances between 2 cars
    120,000 miles: $6,526
    150,000 miles: $8,158
    180,000 miles: $9,790

    By avoiding oil changes and tire rotations, you can save another $1,400. So for a person who drives 18,000 miles (using car for business, taxi, long commutes), there is saving of around $11,000 with the net difference between the 2 coming to just $2,000. But the drive of Model 3 is better than high end trims of Camry besides the extra space in frunk. Please pass this if you have any friends in USA.

    ReplyDelete
  39. As usual, mainstream media crows that Tesla sold only 15.000+ vehicles in china, but they ignored the fact that global cumulative sales of Tesla crossed 1,4 million mark. No other automaker sold even 1 million BEVs.
    Oh wait, no other automaker sold even 1 million PEVs.

    Yes, even BYD did not hit that # in light duty vehicle sales. May be if we include their bus sales, it may hit that mark.

    But we should appreciate VW in tripling the sales and jumping from #6 to #2.

    ReplyDelete