Friday, October 30, 2020

Q1-Q3 2020 Sales by OEM


Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:


If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 18% share, down 1% regarding the previous June report, followed by the Volkswagen Group (13%), that increased the distance to the Renault-Nissan Alliance, to 5%, so the German conglomerate is midway between the #1 Tesla and the #3 Renault-Nissan. 

And to think that 2019 ended with the Volkswagen Group in 6th, with 6% share, 2 points behind the Renault-Nissan Alliance and a whole 11 points below the leader Tesla (17%)...At this pace, the Germans could beat Tesla by Q2 2021. Bets, anyone?

Below the podium, Hyundai-Kia rose to 4th, at the expense of the BMW Group, with both keeping the 7% share they had in H1. 

SAIC is now #6, with 110.000 units, benefiting from the success of the SGMW City EVs, and could displace BMW from the Top 5 by the end of the year.

With the plugin market this year growing at a 11% rate, while Tesla (+24%), Hyundai-Kia (+29%) and BMW (+17%) are growing at a slightly higher pace than average, but the Volkswagen Group is growing at warp speed (+168%), and it has been the OEM that has grown more in volume, in the past three months, beating even Tesla in that aspect. 

On the other hand, the Renault-Nissan Alliance has seen its sales drop, by 1%, harmed by the slowing sales that Nissan and Mitsubishi have been experiencing. Maybe Renault could be better off seeking new dance partners (Ahem, Mercedes, Ahem)?


Looking only at BEVs, the leader Tesla (26%) lost 2% share regarding H1, but it is still 3% above the 2019 result, while the Renault Nissan Alliance continues losing share, due to Nissan's slowing sales, dropping by 1% regarding the last quarter, to 9%, and the Alliance was surpassed by the Volkswagen Group, that has kept its 10% score, which is double its final 2019 score (5%).

SAIC is also on the rise, jumping to #4, thanks to the Wuling and Baojun EVs, while increasing its share to 8%, placing the Chinese OEM 2 points ahead of last year 6% share.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, to the profit of the BEV-friendly SAIC.


  1. DoggydogworldOctober 30, 2020

    I'm surprised almost half of VW Group's PEV sales are PHEVs. I knew Porsche and Audi were PHEV-heavy, but I assumed VW's China sales were mostly BEV.

    Recent investor slides say BEVs will be 3-4% of VW Group sales in 2020. That's 150-240k BEVs in Q4! How is that even remotely possible?

    ID3 - 60k???
    eTron - 20k?
    Taycan - 10k?
    Enyaq - 10k?

    Plus a few leftover eGolf/eUP. They finally started the big ID4 plant in Anting this week and will start the one in Foshan soon, but I read they wouldn't deliver those cars until early next year.

    Any ideas?

    1. 150-240k seems a real lot for Q4 2020. They should for sure reach those numbers in Q1 or Q2 2021. Zwickau (ID3 & ID4 production) should be 82.5K per quarter when fully ramped up - but they won't run at this rate the full quarter.
      So your 60k for Zwickau might be right. Plus E-Tron, Taycan, E- Golf, E-Up,Mii and Citigo and you are at 75k.

      But they do have some BEV factories and models which are not widely known: So E-Tron production in Changchun (35k/yr), JAC joint venture (75% VW) with IEV 7s and Sol E20X and China Audi Q2L e-tron, VW Lavida and Chine E-Golf.
      Their China BEV production capacity ramping up now is probably higher than current EU -(300k Anting, 300k Foshan, 35k Changchun + Heifei + Shanghai) - so I'd expect 75k Europe & 75k in China in Q4 and you have your 150k.

    2. Dont forget December will have some ID.4 delivried in U.S. AND China.

  2. Tesla sold only 139.300 in Q3-2020, that 316.820 is YTD sales.
    Thanks a lot for publishing this.
    Nice to see VW group rising by leaps and bounds.
    SAIC rising up to #4 in BEV table is notable. Renault is clueless because of Nissan dragging them down.

    1. Both tables contain YTD numbers for all companies listed.

    2. It's not only about Tesla that it is YTD, but also for all other brands in the only BEV sheet.
      I think it was simply a lapsus from José.

    3. Yet, maybe a sheet with only BEV sales from 5 first Brands/groups in Q3 would be a great addition to the article.
      So, 139.593 deliveries for Q3, what about for others 4 brands/groups?

    4. You are right, it's not Q3, but YTD.

      Regarding only Q3 sales, and only BEVs, besides the 140k of Tesla, we have 56k of VW Group, 44k for the Renault-Nissan Alliance and 41k for Hyundai-Kia

  3. Tesla increased it's market share to 18%.

    Looks like this is a historic moment.

    Though impossible to maintain.

  4. Can I suggest you add a set of summary tables that give GWh leagues. To an extent counting vehicle #s is misleading, what is more relevant is what is the cell (GWh) capacity embedded in the vehicles as that gives the most insight into the underlying industrial positions of the different automotive OEMs.

    1. That's an interesting way of looking at it. It would emphasise Tesla's dominance even further of course, but notably also put SGMW much lower... Is that representative of actual positions? Not sure, but certainly worth considering.

      Gathering this data would require quite some research and guesswork, though...

    2. David: please send me an email (, so we can discuss this further.

    3. @David Sharman
      Your suggestion would favour OEMs which produce long range vehicles.
      For CO2 containment that would be terrible.

      Every commuter who uses a small battery is contributing to CO2 containment.
      The smaller the better.

  5. However, on a daily basis of BEV and PHEV cars sold, Volkswagen Group is already by far the Nr 1. ID3 sales in Norway surged to 2500 in October versus not even 100 Model 3 sold. Tesla Model S sold close to zero in Norway during October. The table turns now in a big way.

    1. DoggydogworldNovember 02, 2020

      Tesla sales are always extremely low in the first month of the quarter, and very high in the last month. You have to use a 3 month rolling average for Tesla instead of cherry picking a single month.

    2. True, Tesla sales are usually weak in October and November, yet what is happening now is extreme. Just 4 Model S in Norway and none in the Netherlands sold in October is extremely low.

    3. Which of course just means they were able to deliver everything they had before the end of last quarter.

  6. Over the last two months, VW ID3 had a constant market share in Norway of over 30%. If this would translate into World markets, VW group would have far over 500,000 sales year to date and far above 800,000 for the whole year. Big changes are coming to the market.

    1. Yeah, well, VW has a large presence in Norway. What will determine VW's global position next year will be more China, where VW has historically sold well. If the ID.4 goes over big in China, VWAG will do well globally. The early returns on ID.3 in Europe really can't be bettered, and the initial backlog should evaporate.

    2. Maarten VinkhuyzenNovember 02, 2020

      This is delivery the backlog of orders. I only a small indication of what demand will be when the ID.3 is a normal product.

    3. DoggydogworldNovember 03, 2020

      Over the last two months VW ID3 has ~3% share in Belgium. This would translate to ~50k worldwide so far this year. These extrapolations depend on which tiny country you choose to cherry pick.

  7. Dear Sir or Madam,

    may I am wrong, but I guess these are not the values Q3 2020, but YTD.

    Best regards, Daniel