Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Norway September 2020


Octavia iV é só o início da ofensiva eletrificada da Skoda
Skoda Octavia PHEV: Norway's next Success Story?

82% share!

After Sweden, Norway is another EV market with a Super-September month, with plugins hitting an historic 82% market share, with BEVs up 57% last month, to 9.560 units and 62% share, while PHEVs continue on the fast lane, up 175% YoY, to 3.129 units, or 20% share of the overall market, pulling the 2020 PEV share to a record 71% (51% BEV).

Looking at the fuels breakdown, if plugins are up, the rest is down, and even HEVs are now suffering from the blackhole effect of PEVs, as their sales were down 12% YoY, now having just 7% share of the market, but petrol and diesel are even worse, with the first down to 6% share (it had 10% a year ago), while the latter fell to just 5%, while in the same month last year, diesel had 12% share...Will we see diesel disappear next year?

Another record to take in account, is the fact that 88% of all September sales belonged to electrified (BEV+PHEV+HEV) vehicles, so we should see months next year where pure ICE sales will be basically non existant... 

Looking at September model sales by fuel, we have once again a 100% BEV Top 5, with the VW ID.3 landing immediately in the leadership, stealing the Tesla Model 3 thunder, as the sports sedan posted in September its best performance so far in 2020, with 1.116 deliveries.

Another hot new item closed the podium, with the Polestar 2 scoring a record 937 units, and should become a regular face in this Top 5 from now on. 

The remaining Top 5 saw the MG ZS EV reach the 4th position, thanks to a record 672 registrations, with the Audi e-Tron closing the Top 5.

Interestingly, in #8 we have a new hot addition to the market, with the Toyota RAV4 PHEV winning already the September PHEV Best Seller award, with 467 units, a promising start for the plugin Toyota, that places the popular SUV as a strong candidate for the 2021 Best Selling PHEV award in Norway. (And globally too?) 

Tesla Model 3
Polestar 2
Audi e-Tron

Looking at the 2020 ranking, if the podium positions seem secure for now, the star in the Top 10 was the Tesla Model 3, that thanks to the expected high tide, the sports sedan jumped two spots to #5, placing it closer to the #3 Hyundai Kona EV.

The MG ZS EV joined the Top 10, jumping to #8, proving that range is not everything, as there is a market for average-specced models with a low price.

But the real star of the month was the VW ID.3, that landed with a bang (1.989 units) and joined the table in #11, and the highly antecipated EV is looking to climb higher, possibly reaching #6 in the next couple of months, while the Polestar 2 also joined the Top 20, in #19, with the hot fastback poised to join the Top 10 soon. 

In the unplugged category, the highest standing is still the ICE Skoda Octavia, but it has dropped two spots, to #10 (the PHEV version is badly needed), with the #13 Toyota RAV4 leading the Toyota hybrid pack. 

Interestingly, the Toyota Yaris Hybrid dropped to #20 so we might see here just 4 plugless models in October.

Outside the Top 20, the highlight was the aforementioned 467 deliveries of the Toyota RAV4 PHEV, a badly needed model for the brand, as its plugless hybrid lineup is already suffering from the EV blackhole effect, so if the Japanese OEM wants to continue to be relevant in Norway, it is critical that the RAV4 PHEV becomes a success. 

Other models shining were the Peugeot 2008 EV crossover, that scored a record month for the second time in a row, with 278 units, while the Skoda Citigo EV deliveries continue to rise, reaching a record 249 deliveries in September, and the Kia Niro EV scored 223 units, its best performance in the last 17 months, so it seems the recent production ramp up of the Korean maker allowed it to have more units available for this market. Will it reach the Top 20 soon?

A few words also for the strong landing of the Suzuki Across (who?!?!), that debuted with 158 units, while two veterans, the Tesla Model S and Model X, posted Year Best performances, with 142 deliveries of the first and 181 of the latter.

Looking at the overall manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (13%, up 1%) is in the leadership, with Audi (9%, down 1%) in the runner-up spot, but now being troubled by the #3 Toyota (9%, up 1%).

Outside the podium, Volvo and BMW are leading a pack of makers (Hyundai, Mercedes, Skoda)  all with 6% share, all looking to reach the podium.


  1. The VW ID.3 will reach 4th or 5th position within Oct. Probably too far for catching the Audi e-tron by end year though.

    2021 will be fun for the top spot race - any favourites yet? I would have my money on the ID.4

    1. I would but my money on the ID.3 as there is no strong direct competitor. Maybe except Kona&Niro that are somewhat similar.
      ID.4 will be in competition with Skoda Enyaq, Model Y, Volvo XC40, Mach-E, BMW iX3, e-tron Q4.

    2. @Anonymous Since you are counting in-house competition, don't forget the el-born...

      Also, the ID.4 doesn't really have direct (not in-house) competition: Model Y, Mach E, and iX3 are all bigger and more premium; XC40 is smaller, and presumably also a bit more premium? (Though they are probably all close enough to still see a decent amount of cross-selling...)

      The ID.3 technically has a more direct competitor in the form of the Leaf -- but that one won't be a real threat at least until they have a new generation on a better platform...

    3. Going by logic, i would say VW ID.3, but the ID.4 is such a compelling vehicle that i am torn.

      Usually i'm skeptical on SUV versions of regular cars, but the ID.4 feels more substantial than the ID.3, so in this case i think the price premium is justified.

  2. Thanks for the report. It is a sea change for electric cars as for the first time electric cars seem to enter the mass market for cars.VW ID3 currently selling at around 100 cars per day has a good chance to gain the second place this month and being the leader by year end. The factory in Zwickau/Saxony is ramping up production to over 400.000 by introducing a Saturday shift. Going to a 5 shift operation, capacity can be increased to over 500.000 per year. Including Seat, Skoda,Audi, VW is very likely the top producer of electric cars worldwide by year end.

    1. "Zwickau/Saxony is ramping up production to over 400.000 by introducing a Saturday shift"

      Great news. This is the only way, VW can keep ahead of Toyota in worldwide sales and Tesla in BEV sales. Pretty soon, they should convert their Wolfburg also to BEVs. A smaller ID2 for the Asian market is a must.

      Time for Renault, PSA group to think seriously about BEVs.

    2. e-Golf and Leaf have been top sellers in Norway for years, trouncing any combustion cars in that segment. You can't go more mass-market than that. BEVs have held around 50% for most of the year now.

      Face it: while the ID.3 certainly moves the needle further (perhaps stealing enough sales from the Corolla for it to drop out of the top 20?...), it's not the game-changer that was promised -- at least not in Norway.

    3. I wouldn't say that the VW Group will outsell Tesla next year in the BEV field, but i believe it will start the chase, so that somewhere in the future, it will catch it.

    4. @José while VWs ambitions are growing over time, they are still behind Tesla's 50% CAGR goal... They will have to step up their ambitions (and likely their technology) even further, if they are ever to catch up with Tesla.

  3. Nice showing by SAIC's ZS EV.
    Does the MG brand have any history (name recognition) in Norway at all?

    1. I don't know how things are in Norway, where i live (Portugal), MG is known for two things, depending on the age (and car culture knowledge) of who's talking: Sporty versions of old Rover models, well known among the tuning people, or small roadsters from the 60's.

  4. With 22 months elapsed, the Audi e-tron already moved past 13622 registrations and the first sitting duck is down: Tesla Model X with 13621 registrations since june 2016.

    written by Looney Tunes

    1. So the e-tron with terrible specs has exceeded 4 years of Model X sales. Maybe 0-60 and range efficiency aren't competitive advantages?

    2. I think Norway is a bit of a special case. The e-tron is more competitive to the Model X because its disadvantages do not weigh so heavy in Norway. You have a great charging infrastructure for all EV's which is an advantage for the e-tron, whilst in other markets the Model X has a huge edge over the e-tron and other competitors due to Teslas SC network. Nevertheless, Tesla has to rethink its Model X and S strategies. Or maybe they are all OK with the fact that in 1-2 years they produce mainly the 3 and Y and just have the X&S for the few people that prefer bigger high end Models?

    3. The e-tron is a smaller vehicle than the Model X, and way cheaper in Europe. (Even before discounts.) That's apparently all the competitive advantage it needs...

      And yes, Elon said on a number of occasions that the focus is on Model 3/Y (and other new models), while he considers Model S and X as niche/legacy at this point.

      (Though that doesn't stop them from introducing a new chassis for Model S Plaid, which will surely make its way to the entire S/X lineup, no doubt giving them somewhat of a boost in the future...)

    4. I think they figured that they would hardly compete in the S/X segment if Audi, BMW, Mercedes or Porsche would really tackle them there.
      But in the segment 3/Y the customers are a bit less sensitive to supreme interior and the edge that Tesla has and will have in coming years in terms of range, efficiency, design and performance makes them top of the class in this segment

    5. I very much doubt Tesla is afraid to compete with Audi, BMW, Mercedes, or Porsche. They are still years ahead in technology -- and it doesn't look like this is going to change any time soon...

      It's simply not a large enough market to make enough of a difference to Tesla's mission or financials, as to justify putting significant resources (especially in terms of engineering talent) towards it, while they are short on resources for much more important programs...

  5. Nice to see Norway hitting a massive 12.689 in sales. Time for Norway to stop building new petrol/diesel stations and also replace some stall with superchargers to handle this plugin wave.

    VW ID.3 is the new superstar storming into #11 in the very 1st month.
    Tesla has finally recovered from coronavirus to get into decent #5. Will Polestar maintain this high sales. Their US EPA range has come out. Its just 233 miles; 373 km and the mileage is 92 MPGe; 39 km/l with their 78 KWh battery.
    Tesla Model 3 on the other hand has 141 MPGe; 60 km/l. In the 1st year, all the Volvo fans and those who want something new will run for this. Lets see how they do from 2nd year.

    I wish the HEVs gain at the expense of petrol/diesel, but the automakers must be locking them to sell at least some petrol/diesel. From october, there will be a new picture. From october, Skoda Octavia will drop out of top-10 and no petrol will be there in top-10.

    Seems Ford has not launched Kuga to compete with RAV4. No wonder why they keep the production low.

  6. Toyota & Panasonic are to build a factory to make prismatic lithium batteries for hybrids. This is a major news.
    Typical full hybrid vehicle requires only 1,5 KWh battery, so a battery used in typical BEV like Leaf (40 KWh) could be used in 33 full hybrid vehicles like Prius / RAV4.

    Toyota mentioned that they plan to build 5 million electrified vehicles by 2025. Last year they sold more than 1,5 million full hybrids. They are planning to bump it 3 times to 4,5 million full hybrids to show that non plugins can still give a decent 40% range increase for just 10% extra cost. This could be a selling point that crushes regular petrol/diesel vehicles. They dont want the world to plugin.

    But this could be a warning sign for automakers who believe that there is market for regular vehicles. And those who sell PEVs will face constant criticism that "there is no need to plugin". For the oil companies/refineries/stations who sell more diesel, they should think about the future.

  7. VW ID3 storming the charts in the first October week. At 2439 cars sold it would be already at #7. At the current rate of over 70 cars per calendar day, ID3 is on track to storm to #2 or #3 by end of the month and to #1 by year end. Staggering September numbers also from Germany as hybrid sales rose from 46,000 to 51,000 in September from August yielding a month to month growth rate of 30%. Ditto for EV sales rosing from 16,000 to 21,000 in just one month!!! mostly due to ID3 sales of more than 5000!!! ID3 is already the second best selling car after VW Golf (12,000) in Germany.

  8. #synopsis
    Of the 15552 vehicles registered in September, 12689 (81.6%) are PEVs.

    7795 vehicles (61.4%) from the total registered 12689 PEVs are BEVs in the Top20 positions, were the leading carmakers are VW group (36.2%) with 2821 units, followed by Tesla (14.3%) with 1116 units and Volvo Car (12%) with 937 units.
    Also among the Top20 positions are Hybrids (10%) with 952 units and Plug-in Hybrids (7.3%) with 699 units.

  9. In Germany ID.3 did only reach 3rd rank in its first month, behind ZOE and M3.

    1. On a daily basis, VW ID3 is by far the best selling car in Germany. Sales did start in mid September, so the monthly and yearly numbers are dilutet.

    2. Still, i feel disappointed with the ID.3 performance in Germany, let's see how the next months develop.

    3. In any case, it will be very interesting. The race is on.

  10. We read about Newton Effect
    82% PEV & 88% XEV is Norway Effect
    I wonder whether all Norwegians have garaged home, if not are they charging from public charging stations.
    I wish the Norway Effect is spread to other Scandanavian countries like Sweden, Finland & Denmark.

    Anyway the PEVs are spreading fast enough. Next year the subsidies may be cut and we have to see how things are going.
    Todays good news is major american bank has decided to follow Paris accord which should provide a much needed boost to the electric transportation.

    1. Scandinavia has an huge charging infrastructure for decades as during the winter petrol cars were heated on every parking place in even the most remote places.

  11. For the first 10 days in October VW ID3 is charging ahead with 843 cars sold. This implies more than 2500 cars sold by month end and possibly already #2 in Norway - far ahead of Tesla, which has sold just 34 Model3 during the first 10 days in October.

  12. VW ID3 surging again on a daily basis in Norway at a market share of 60%!!!, soon outselling Model 3 also on a yearly basis. Tesla did not yet sell any car today and is on a steep downtrend on a daily basis.

    1. Lying troll still pretending not to understand Tesla's delivery pattern repeating every single quarter...

    2. Tesla sales are extremely low in October, even if considering the Tesla delivery pattern. VW ID3 over 1000 in October so far and going to over 2000 by end month and over 3000 since mid September trumping soon Model3 sales for the whole year!!!!!

    3. Low Tesla deliveries at the beginning of the quarter means they were successful in delivering pretty much everything they had before the end of last quarter -- it's a *good* sign.

    4. The I.D.3 already passed the amount of deliveries this year from Model 3 so far!!!

  13. Mid October VW ID3 continues to surge ahead on a monthly basis. At 1200 sales it is on track to end the month with 2500 sales, far ahead of Tesla which had sold just 50 cars so far in October.