Friday, October 30, 2020

Global Top 20 September 2020


 Tesla Model Y já tem preços e configurações / 0 aos 100 / Notícias em alta  rotação


Models: Tesla Model Y and Wuling Mini EV shine in Record month


After a rough start of the year, first because of the Chinese EV market blues, then because of the Covid pandemic, the second half of the year has finally brought positive months, and the much anticipated (Super-)September month has arrived and brought a record month, with 345.000 units, shattering the previous record, dated from June '19, by over 50.000 units, adding a whopping 17% volume to the 294.000 units of the broken record.

With plugin registrations going up 91%, both technologies had record months, but plugin hybrids were particulary hot, jumping 120%, to 104.000 units, which is the highest PHEV growth rate since December 2015...

This record month has allowed the YTD numbers to reach a positive result of 11% YoY, on par with the 2019 growth rate, so it looks (Covid willing...) like 2020 will end up as a positive year for plugins. 

With the overall automotive market losing momentum, added to a record month, the September PEV share hit a record 4.9% (3.4% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3.4% (2.3% BEV), which is almost 1% above the 2.5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

The BEV/PHEV breakdown stayed more or less the same, with the current standing now at 68% BEV, 32% PHEV. 




Profiting from the expected end-of-quarter high tide, the leader Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in September, but the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored a record 14.495 units last month, with the tiny EV placing itself between two Teslas, with the Model Y repeating the monthly Bronze medal, thanks to a record 12.685 deliveries, benefiting from the current production ramp-up, and allowing Tesla's new baby to jump three spots in the Top 20, to #3, with only the Renault Zoe in the way for the Californian maker to make a 1-2 win this year.

Will the Model Y reach Silver? Depends on the production ramp up, with 22.000 units separating both nameplates and only 3 months to go, the midsizer will need to continue ramping up production throughout Q4, in order to get there. With that said, there is a Dark Horse also running for #2...

...The Wuling Mini EV was the Climber of the Month, jumping 11(!) positions, to 7th, and with a steep production ramp up, expect the Chinese EV to continue rising in the table, with October surely witnessing another climb, to 4th or 5th, and then in November/ December, it could go after the current podium medalists, the #3 Tesla Model Y and #2 Renault Zoe, so if the 2020 Best Seller title has been decided long ago, the remaining podium positions are pretty much open for discussion.

The Volkswagen ID.3 has oficially landed, and although the bang wasn't has big as expected, the German EV jumped immediately to the 5th position in September, with 8.576 deliveries, beating the Hyundai Kona EV, that lately has been in a record frenzy, delivering yet another personal best last month, with 8.014 registrations.

Regarding other position changes, the Audi e-Tron (4.795 units, new Year Best) climbed to #8, followed by GAC's Aion S, that was also up one spot, to #10, thanks to a slow month of the BMW 530e/Le twins, that dipped to #11.

Speaking of the big Bimmers, on the PHEV side, the Best Selling model in September was the VW Passat PHEV, that thanks to strong results in both China and Europe, scored a record 6.092 units, with the remaining podium positions in September being filled by two models outside this Top 20, the Mercedes A250e (4.778 units) and Volvo XC40 PHEV (4.281), with the two young (and ambitious) models frankly outpacing most of the Best Sellers in the class. 

With the BMW 530e/Le losing their breath, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV showing its wrinkles and the Ford Kuga/Escape PHEV suffering from battery suply problems, it looks like the VW plugin hybrid model has the road open to win the 2020 Best Selling PHEV title.

Finally, on the second half of the table, SAIC's MG ZS EV climbed one spot, to #16, thanks to a Year Best performance of 5.317 units, while we have two models returning to the Top 20, the Tesla Model X profited from a higher than expected end-of-quarter high tide (6.586 units, its best result since December 2018!), to jump into #17, thus making 3 Tesla models in the Top 20, while Great Wall's ORA R1, now called Black Cat, returned to the best sellers, in #20, thanks to 5.141 units, the small EV best result since June 2019, now making 16 BEVs and 4 PHEVs in the Top 20, and with the #18 Ford Kugao/Esape PHEV in trouble, in October we could see just 3 plugin hybrid models here... 




Manufacturers: Mercedes shines in Record month

Tesla's score (65.814 units) was its best performance ever and is in a different league, but below it, there were also plenty of record performances, 9 to be exact, with the most relevant being Volkswagen, that thanks to the ID.3 landing, jumped its deliveries to 24.035 units, but also Mercedes, that registered 17.836 units, its 3rd record score in a row(!), allowing the three-pointed star brand to jump three positions, to #6, just 73 units below the #5 Renault, that also scored a record result, but in a time that everybody is pushing their limits, it's just not good enough to beat records, one has to shatter them by a significant margin, as Volvo, Audi and Hyundai can attest, as all 3 of them broke their records, and yet, all 3 of them were surpassed by Mercedes... 

Expect Mercedes to climb one position in October, to #5, and then it will be time to go after the #4 BMW arch-rival, that despite hitting a record score in September, is now being outshined by the Mercedes star appeal.

In a different scale, young little NIO, in #20, continues to grow, having reached a record 4.280 deliveries last month, as it tries to keep up with the Big Boys.

With Shanghai Auto tally now split in two, with SAIC on one side and SGMW(1) on the other, the two are now at #11 (SGMW) and #12 (SAIC), with the small EV joint-venture having just surpassed the Mothership in the table.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to Great Wall, now in #21, that registered 6.731 units, its best score since June 2019, with the maker betting on the cat pack (The Good, the White and the Black) to grow its sales and join the table soon.





(1) - SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.

24 comments:

  1. Thanks again for your efforts in compiling Jose.

    Rolling 12 months now at approx 2.4 million!

    Outside of Tesla VW group at ~160k ytd looks like it will be the engine of growth this year and next. Anybody else? A byd bounce perhaps?

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  2. Wow, wow, wow, wonderful 345.519; 4,9% share and BEVs take Top-12, please make it Trendy-12 soon.
    Nice to see Wuling MiniEV storming to #2 in just the 4th month and Model Y to #3 in 7th month.
    Thanks to all automakers for making this happen.

    VW ID.3 will be a strong contender in top-20. All 4 Tesla models sold very well, with the battery day behind and price cuts, these will sell very well soon. Seems Model S sold 4.747 units. Tesla cumulative sales crossed 1,2 million mark.

    In 2020-08, there were 5 PHEVs in top-20, now its down to only 4.
    For those who said that after mild hybrid, it will be full hybrids and then plugin hybrids, there is egg on their face.

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    Replies
    1. Where do you see a BEV top 12? Right now I see only a BEV top 10 -- and even this is likely temporary, if the Passat PHEV continues like that... (Unless GAC and BYD step up their game significantly.)

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  3. @Jose Pontes: You mentioned that June 2019 was the previous record.
    But in 2019-06, PEVs scored only 264.591 per this website. The previous record belongs to 2018-12 @286.367. So its a 59.152 unit jump. Can you please check.
    http://ev-sales.blogspot.com/2019/07/global-top-20-june-2019.html

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  4. If you notice keenly, you can see that VW has more than doubled its sales compared to previous month, thanks to ID.3, we can hope this trend will continue. Silently Toyota also increased its plugin sales probably because of RAV-4 plugin ramp up. Many automakers have seen big jumps in their sales.

    Renault also scored big in super sep.
    SGMW & SAIC split has pushed BAIC out of top-20, they have to ramp up.

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  5. DoggydogworldOctober 30, 2020

    Great work! Almost 5% PEVs, wow. BTW the first table heading says "Aug" instead of "Sep".

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  6. @Jose Pontes: I get a different YTD total if I sum up the 1st 9 months.

    2020-09 345519
    2020-08 240981
    2020-07 247575
    2020-06 229894
    2020-05 144600
    2020-04 110274
    2020-03 192380
    2020-02 116170
    2020-01 150613

    Total 1,778,006
    You have mentioned 1,784,293

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. As José mentioned a couple of times, the numbers for past months often get adjusted after the respective blog posts have been published...

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  7. super sep sale
    Modelwise, Tesla Model 3 is more than next 3 combined with 1 of them being its cousin Model Y
    Makewise, Tesla is more than next 3 combined

    Time for other automakers to catch up. For now Wuling MiniEV and VW ID.3 are well positioned.

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  8. October however, will turn the table completely as VW ramps up production. The factory in Zwickau/Saxony has an ID3 capacity of 1000 cars per day, which will be eventually sold. ID3 sales on a daily basis are close to 100 per day ( just 3 Model 3 per day) in Norway alone. VW has to fulfill its EU quota until year end. This is catapulting VW by far to the top on a daily basis.

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    Replies
    1. The plan is to have a capacity of 1.500 cars (six EV models) built a day at the end of 2021, not only ID3.

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    2. @Anonymous that's an interesting figure. Do you happen to know what exactly it entails? All VW Group models? All MEB-based models? BEV only, or BEV+PHEV? Across all factories, including the Chinese joint-ventures and the Czech Skoda factory in addition to the Zwickau plant?

      And what exactly does "per day" mean? Are we talking average across a seven day week? Or six working days per week? Five working days?...

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    3. Anyone that have followed the sales for a while know that Tesla’s sale will be low in the beginning of a quarter. To do a comparison between ID3 that have been in production for several month without delivering and Model 3 a month we know the deliveries will be low feels very strange. We also know that just like so many other models there is a long list of waiting customers then a model is realised which means the deliveries don’t really show the demand over time.

      So, if we want to do a reasonable comparison between Model 3 and ID3 we should look over a quarter and start looking next year when the first spike is over.

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  9. My prediction is we will have a million more added in the last quarter ending the year with 2.7mil a healthy 20,% growth for a pandemic year.
    Thank you so much for the great work Jose.

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  10. @Jose Pontes: Will it be possible for you to say the Sep & YTD sales of USA. Just at country level will do, no need for model split.

    Worldwide cumulative Light duty (mostly 4 wheeled) PEV sales crossed 9 millon mark in super sep and stands above 9,2 million. Wonderful achievement in < 10 years.

    General Motors does not have an entry in Sep & YTD, though they have it thru partnership. Its the 1st company in modern times to launch an EV (EV1 [lead battery], EV2 [nickel battery]). Sadly they crushed it and did not care to keep even 1 in their museum. Now they are offering $8.500 discount on Bolt permanently. And Nissan is offering $6.000 discount on Leaf.

    And today, Tesla is carrying the torch that they lit. Luckily the solar power generation in USA is growing steadily month after month. Latest addition is the solar tiles with Tesla installing 57 MW in Q3.

    Among the 4 plugins, both Kuga and Passat has near 60 km range which is a big improvement compared to earlier years.

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    Replies
    1. The 57 MW in Q3 is all Tesla solar, not just the new solar tile roof...

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  11. @José I only recently realised that SGMW is an entirely separate joint-venture from SAIC-GM... Which makes me wonder: under which brand are you counting sales of GM's Buick models made by SAIC-GM?...

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    Replies
    1. I count Baojun and Wuling in the SGMW joint-venture.

      As for Buick, it stays within GM, like Chevrolet, even if the Velite 6 is basically a reskinned SAIC Roewe Ei5...

      #badgeengineering_gives_you_headaches

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  12. I continue to be amazed by the relative sales success of the e-tron, which might end the year close to 50,000 units... While that's what they were aiming for (reportedly even 70,000 if it wasn't for production issues), I didn't expect them to actually find this many buyers. I wonder what the real average selling price is for this model after discounts?...

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    1. It is a good barge, like all big Audi's, even if inneficient, hence the success. Also, it is then only Audi BEV.

      But don't expect this success to be replicated in 2021, with the landing of the Audi Q4 e-Tron, with higher range and much lower price, the new model will do to the e-Tron what the Model 3 did to the Model S...

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  13. Wow, upstart NIO has already surpassed established brands like GM, and might soon overtake Mitsubishi... Strange times we live in ;-)

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  14. Are there any sources for your interesting market share figures please?

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    Replies
    1. Plenty. Please check the EV-Volumes.com website, for more information.

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