Saturday, May 18, 2019

Global Top 5 - Mid Game bet - April 2019

1. Tesla Model 3 - 70k

2. BYD Yuan EV - 31k

3. Nissan Leaf - 26k

4. BAIC EU-Series - 24k

5. BYD e5 - 19k

On the manufacturers ranking, BYD (93k) is still ahead of Tesla (87k), but the gap is getting smaller.


  1. The Model 3 is just short of being on the Top 100 global vehicles for 2019 YTD. 55K sales were needed through March to be on that list - for 2019 April YTD Top 100 Global 74K will probably be the threshold.

    So I hope you're off by a bit and we can finally see a PEV on that list. Even if you're not, it'll probably happen by the end of June...

    1. @ Taylor S. Marks,

      Suppose that the total global annual Tesla Model 3 deliveries (at the end of the year) in 2019 will be 300,000.

      Which position on that "Top 100 global vehicles" list would the Tesla Model 3 roughly be?

      Around position nr 50?


    2. I would bet by the end of June.

  2. Jose,

    3 EV models in the global top 5 are from China.

    When are you going to post "China April 2019"?


    1. AnonymousMay 20, 2019

      Yes, China in April will be very interesting!
      They released the Top 10 sold EVs recently and for some reason the Model 3 did not make that list implying less than 3000 deliveries there.
      Since we already have numbers (S3X) for the US (11925) and Europe(4400), your estimate of 24k global deliveries for Tesla in April seems to be rather high, unless Canada saw much more deliveries than usual..

    2. China comes this week.

      Imports come a little later than home made vehicles, that is why i am waiting a little longer. If they do not come by Friday, i will publish the article on that day, with an estimate for the Model 3, that should be between 3k-4k deliveries.

    3. Via Forbes, it seems as though Tesla sold less than 3k M3s in China in April. Collating the European numbers, it looks like total sales are closer to 5-6k from European and Chinese numbers. Perhaps the US and other markets would bail Tesla out?

    4. AnonymousMay 20, 2019

      If that's true why would the M3 not show up in the top 10?
      Is that what you mean when you say "home made vehicles"? Did they publish a Top 10 without M3 because they didn't have the data yet?
      Thanks!! Looking forward to Friday!!

    5. Just a reminder that both European and Chinese April deliveries for Tesla are *only* cars that were produced in February or early March, and arrived on ships in late March, but didn't manage to complete delivery before the end of March. (Most of the >10,000 cars in transit at the end of March were likely in this category.) European and Chinese deliveries of cars produced in April commenced maybe two weeks ago.

  3. Interesting that European numbers seemed to have stalled at about 1/6th of Q1 sales in April. Yet the numbers we're seeing suggests very strong sales in the United States; are these leases?

  4. Is there also something missing? It seems as though 20k M3s moved in April, but by my count, from listed numbers, only 2405 M3s sold in Europe.

  5. Remember, these are estimates to what we will see next week, so numbers will change until then.