Wednesday, October 31, 2018

Global Sales By OEM

Here are the 2018 PEV deliveries by Automotive Groups, from January until September:

Regarding the previous post, two months ago, the big change happened at the top, with both Tesla (12%, +2% share) and BYD (11%, +1%) profiting from their recent record performances to surpass the Renault-Nissan Alliance (10%, -1%), that is now down to Third Place. 

Regarding the remaining OEMs, there aren't significant changes, the only major difference is Geely Group, that is getting closer to the #6 SAIC,

Interestingly, half of the Top 10 belongs to Chinese OEMs, and if we add Tesla to the Disruptors team, Legacy OEMs are a minority in the Top 10. Talk about disruptive times…

Grouping sales by origin of brand, China has increased its leadership, to 47% share (+1%), a new record, with the USA (16%, +1% share) recovering the Second Place from Germany (16%, -2%), while the Fourth Placed Japan lost share (10%, -1%), and Korea (4%) remained stable in #5.

Excluding PHEVs from the equation, the disruption becomes even more evident: Tesla (18%) is #1, Renault-Nissan (12%) is Second, BAIC is Third (11%), followed by BYD (#4), Chery (#5), and three other Chinese OEMs (JAC, Geely Group and JMC), with the Best Selling Legacy OEM being BMW (3% share) showing up only in #9(!). 

If this trend continues, by the time the ICE market crashes, say in 2022, few Legacy OEMs will remain…

Monday, October 29, 2018

Global Top 20 - September 2018 (Updated)

Models: 200.000 units in September!

Registrations grew 61% in September, to over 200,000 units, shattering the previous record (174,000 units, in December '17). Will we see all Q4 months reach 200k, too? And reach two millions by year end?

This positive result is placing the 2018 numbers at 1,3 million units (+68% YoY), with the global PEV share now standing at a record 1.8% share, which still makes realistic the prospect that this year we will hit over 2% share.  

September was all about Tesla  and China, and especially the Model 3, with the Californian maker pushing up the production rate of its midsizer, resulting in a record 23,600 units being delivered to customers, breaking again the previous all-time record, distancing itself from the #2 Nissan Leaf.

Still regarding Tesla, the older two siblings, the Model S and X, had brilliant results, with the Model S jumping two positions to #4, thanks to a year best 8.074 deliveries, proving that the larger sedan can go on its successful career, even with the internal competition of the Model 3.

As for the remaining YTD ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climbed one position to #10, scoring its best result (4.952 units) since December '15.

But the true surprise was the BMW 530e jumping three positions, to #16, thanks to 4.839 units, the nameplate's best result ever.

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, pure electrics have grown their share by 1%, to 65% of the total market, mostly thanks to the Model 3, and expect this score to be improved  even further during the year, to levels above the 65% share of 2017. 

Image result for tesla 2018 lineup
Best Selling EV maker in the World

Manufacturers: Tesla continues on a record streak

September saw Tesla break once again the all-time record, with over 38,000 deliveries in one month, thanks to the Model 3 deliveries, allowing the brand to distance itself further from BYD, while the Chinese maker also hit record levels, with over 26,000 units. 

With both brands now hitting unseen sales levels month after month, there is no question on who will be in the first two positions, and with Tesla apparently ramping up production faster than BYD, it all points out that the US brand will finally win its first Manufacturers title, after 10 years on the market. 

Coming down from Outer Space and back to Earth, there aren't significant changes at the top, with #3 BAIC keeping an eye on the Fourth Placed BMW (new PB, last month), while Roewe is now defending its Fifth Position from Nissan.
Below the Top 10, Hawtai was the Climber of the Month, thanks to a record 7.639 registrations, jumping two positions to #12, while Mitsubishi has finally started to recover, having climbed one position last month, to #15, thanks to 5.009 units, its best result since 2016. while Hyundai was up one position, to #17, thanks to a record 3.901 units. 

A final reference to Changan, that with 3.962 deliveries, displaced Mercedes from #20 and joined the Top 20.

Thursday, October 25, 2018

Europe September 2018

Resultado de imagem para Tesla model S europe

Tesla high tide, PHEV low tide

In September 2018, the European passenger plug-in market stagnated (+1%), by registering some 32,700 registrations, pulling the Year-to-date count to some 275,000 deliveries, while the 2018 market share is now at 2.2%.

This behavior is not a surprise, as the introduction of the WLTP standard in the beginning of September originated a PHEV sales rush in the previous months, followed by a sudden drop last month (-21% YoY) in the plugin hybrid category.

On the BEV side, it was business as usual (+27%) in September, allowing them to grow their share by +2% regarding the total year breakdown (48% BEV, 52% PHEV), so all-electrics could still win the upper hand over PHEVs this year.

Tesla was a big contributor for the positive performance of BEVs, as the last-month-of-quarter peak was higher than usual, with the Model S being Second Placed in September, while the Model X was Fifth, hitting a record result of 2,453 units.

The PHEV sales drop wasn’t equal across the category, as some brands (BMW, Mitsubishi, Volvo…) did their homework and weren’t affected by the new rules, leading to some brilliant performances in those particular brands, like the #4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Resultado de imagem para 2018 white nissan leaf

#1 Nissan Leaf – Europe’s Best Selling PEV model continues to expand its sales, by registering 4,596 units in September, its best result in the last six months, and with the orders list still to be satisfied in a number of countries, expect the Leaf to continue to be the default #1 throughout the year. But back at last month performance, with the main market being by far Norway (1,071 deliveries), but several markets across Europe also reached three-digit performances, like France, Netherlands, Germany, UK, Sweden, Portugal, Austria, Spain, Denmark and Italy.

Image result for 2018 Tesla Model S white 

#2 Tesla Model S – The Sports Sedan had its best month in Europe since December ‘15, thanks to 2,854 deliveries, up 12% YoY. This is an impressive result for the Californian, not only because it’s been around in the Old Continent since 2013, but especially because the Model 3 is just a few months away from crossing The Pond and land on this side of the Atlantic, which could already make a shadow over its older (and more expensive) sibling, eclipsing its sales. So far it hasn’t been the case, with the nameplate’s 2018 sales performance actually growing 11% YoY. Looking at individual countries, besides Norway’s usual contribution (782 units), the Netherlands have registered a record month, with 1,052 deliveries, while Sweden and the UK also had significant contributions, with over 150 registrations in both countries.

Resultado de imagem para 2018 white renault zoe 

#3 Renault Zoe – The September 2,762 deliveries meant a 22% growth YoY for the French hatchback and is expected continue with a steady growth until the revised model arrives next year. Anyways, regarding September individual market performances, the domestic market did the usual heavy lifting, by registering 1,482 units (+17% YoY), with other significant numbers coming from Germany (328 units), Norway (386, Year Best), and Sweden (191, new record for the third time in a row).  

Image result for 2018 white Outlander PHEV 

#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – Solid as a rock, and with the help of a revised version, the Japanese SUV secured yet another Best-Selling PHEV of the Month award and a Top 5 presence in September, thanks to 2,595 registrations, up 22%, being the nameplate highest result since March ‘16. The plug-in SUV will continue to offer its unique mix of space, AWD and affordability (40.000€), with the added bonus of a larger electric range (28 mi/45 kms real world range) and more power (+15 hp) at hand, keeping it popular in markets like the UK, Norway or Sweden. Going forward, the Japanese SUV is expected to keep wearing its Europe’s Best-Selling PHEV crown in the foreseeable future.

Resultado de imagem para white tesla model x 

#5 Tesla Model X – The Sports SUV had its best result ever in Europe, thanks to 2,453 deliveries, up 18% YoY. It seems the nameplate is starting to catch on in Europe, so expect a slow, but steady, growth in the near future, possibly surpassing its Model S sibling next year. Looking at individual countries, Norway was the largest market (1,234 units), while the Netherlands has registered a record month, with 593 deliveries.

Resultado de imagem para BMW 530e
BMW 530e: Selling like hot cakes

Tesla and BMWs shine

Looking at the 2018 ranking, with all the unusual results mentioned above, there is a lot to talk about, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climbed to #4, surpassing the VW e-Golf, that had its worst result in a year (839 units), while both Tesla’s jumped positions, with the Model S rising to #6, while the Model X jumped 5 positions, to #8.

Elsewhere, several models from the BMW Group continued climbing positions, with the Mini Countryman PHEV reaching #15, the BMW 530e is now #12, thanks to a record 1,839 deliveries, while the hot-selling MPV, the 225xe Active Tourer climbed to #10, beating once again its personal record, with 1,578 units. Even the quirky i3 had a record result, with 2,412 deliveries, 5 years after its arrival to the market.

On the other hand, Volkswagen had a terrible month, besides the unexpected slow month of the e-Golf, both their plugin hybrids had low results, with the Golf GTE registering 393 units, its worst performance in 18 months, while the Passat GTE scored 591 units, its lowest result since February ’16.

Outside the Top 20, the Hyundai Kona EV is ramping up deliveries, having reached 606 units last month, while the Jaguar i-Pace is also increasing the sales pace, by registering 407 units in September.


Looking at the manufacturers ranking, last year winner BMW (17%) is in the lead, while the runner-up Volkswagen (13%), is watching the #3 Nissan (11%) with a close eye, with Renault (9%) in a distant Fourth, ahead of Tesla (7%).

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Portugal September 2018 (Updated)

More and more the EV King in Portugal

5,4% Share!

PEV Sales continue on the fast lane in Portugal, growing 119% in September, to 711 units, 67 shy of a new all-time record, but because the mainstream market was down (-14%) due to the previous pre-WLTP sales rush, the market share hit an all time high (5,4% PEV share), pulling the 2018 Plug-in Share to a new record, at 3%, so there's good reasons to be optimistic and even hope for a 3,5% share by year end.

Looking at the fuels mix, this market is known for its diesel-addiction, due to an unbalanced taxation between gasoline (heavily taxed) and diesel (not so much), but even here, these are historic times, with diesel sales down 7%, registering 54% share for the troubled fuel (a year ago, it had 62% share), while all others increased their sales by two digits or more (BEVs are growing at 156% rate). At this rate, i wouldn't be surprised if diesel sales would be dead in Portugal by 2024/25... 

Last month the Nissan Leaf hit a new all time high for a PEV in this market, by delivering 254 units, expect the Japanese hatchback to continue widening the gap to the runner-up Renault Zoe, as Nissan still has a backlog of orders to take care of.

Moving on, the #3 BMW 530e confirms its success as a company car, by registering a record 106 deliveries, despite having a small electric range (Now imagine if it had a decent one - say 50 kms EPA - but i guess fleet buyers value more fiscal incentives than anything else...), while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climbed one position, to #7, that thanks to the arrival of the new revised version, it delivered a record 48 units. Will the most popular PHEV in Portugal still have time to end the year in a Top 5 position? I guess it all depends on farmers and the like, that buy these things by the bucket...

Elsewhere, the VW Golf GTE jumped two positions to #16, while the Tesla Model S continues climbing in the Best Sellers ranking, with the Sports Sedan jumping to #17, in what is already the nameplate best year here, with 2018 already being Tesla's record year. After some missteps at the start, it seems the local branch is finally doing the right moves for success.  

According to Best Selling Cars Blog, the Nissan Leaf was #9 in the mainstream ranking, the first Top 10 for an EV here, while the BMW 530e represented 38% of all 5-Series registrations.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (24%) is in the leadership, followed by the increasily threatening Nissan (21%), while Renault (14%) is in the last place of the podium.


Nissan Leaf
Toyota C-HR HEV
BMW 530e
Toyota Auris HEV
Toyota Yaris HEV

Once upon a time, regular hybrids (as in, Toyota) used to take the podium positions and plugins would already be Happy if they appeared on the Top 5.

Times have changed, and now we have two PEVs on the podium (#1 and #3), leaving the once dominant Japanese brand with just one model on the medals positions.