Sunday, April 11, 2021

Netherlands March 2021

 Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.4 shine

The Dutch PEV market dropped 4% in March, to 4,834 plugin registrations, but that result wasn't all that bad, considering that the overall market fell even more (-18% YoY), placing last month PEV Share at 20% (9% BEV), pushing the year to date PEV share to 15% (5.6% BEV), which is still significantly down on last year result (25%), but already on par with the 2019 score (15%).

Considering that the first quarter of the year is always the weakest, and the last the strongest, to make this a fairer comparison, it's best to compare the current share with what was going on 12 months ago, and by doing so, we can see positive results, as the market share grew by 3% YoY (15% vs 12%) in Q1, although one must say that BEVs have seen their share fall (9% a year ago vs the current 5.6%), so the market's motor of growth are actually PHEVs...

Breaking down registrations between each plugin powertrain, BEVs recovered a bit, and are now responsible for 37%, a 5% recovery, but they are far from the 75%  of 12 months ago, and even further away from the final 82% of 2020, expect pure electrics to continue recovering ground throughout the year, but one thing looks certain, with BEVs gradually losing their fiscal incentives year after year, plugin hybrids are recovering their space in the market, highlighting just how sensitive to incentives the plugin market still is.

In March, the leader was the Tesla Model 3, scoring its first win since September, this time with 341 units, relegating the previous leader Volvo XC40 PHEV to the second spot, while in 3rd we have the VW ID.4, that after a surprise landing last December (#4, with 2,408 units), has finally started its regular career, and with a podium standing, while its sibling ID.3 has failed to show in the Top 20...

Outside the podium, in the 4th place we have a surprise, with the Ford Kuga PHEV scoring its best result since last July (179 units), while in #6 we have the BMW iX3 showing up for the first time on the table, thanks to a record 159 registrations, and the veteran Nissan "Abe Simpson" Leaf is teaching the young ones a thing or two ("Now, when i was a young boy, Abraham Lincoln showed up in my dreams and...Hey! Who stole my rear bumper?!?!?"), about sales and last month had its best result this year, with 134 units.

The second half of the table also had a few surprises, like the Mercedes A250e showing up in #12, with a record 101 registrations, and two Opel's in the table, with the SUV Grandland X PHEV in #14, with a record 95 units, while the small crossover Mokka EV landed in #17, with 83 units, a promising start for the attractive Opel. 

Speaking of new models, March witnessed the landing of two other nameplates that might show up on the Top 20 soon, with the Kia Sorento PHEV starting its career with 54 registrations, while the Mercedes EQA had its first 38 registrations in this market. After its older brother EQC discreet career on the market (insert short range comment), Mercedes hopes the EQA to become its volume mover on this market, where the three-pointed-star brand trails (way) behind its arch-rival BMW. 

Looking at the 2021 ranking, the two main candidates for the 2021 Best Seller prize have finally came out to play, with the Tesla Model 3 and Volkswagen ID.4 jumping to the 3rd and 4th positions, respectively. 

Another model climbing was the Ford Kuga PHEV, that jumped four positions, to #5, while the Renault Captur PHEV joined the table, in #12.

But the momentum belonged to BEVs, besides the aforementioned Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.4, the BMW iX3 also joined the table, in #17, while there were several pure electric models climbing positions, like the Kia Niro EV (up 2 spots, to #9), Volvo XC40 EV (up to #11), or the Polestar 2 (from #18 to #15). After starting the year with just 5 representatives, BEVs now have 8 in the Top 20, and they should be the majority by June...    

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo (17%, down 1%) is firm as the Number One brand, with BMW (14%, down 1%) in the runner-up position, while a distant Volkswagen (5%, up 2%) now closes the podium, ahead of Renault and Kia, both with 4%.


  1. Would be great if you could cover the rapid transformation of the UK market over the past few months, sales of BEVS and PHEVS are growing very quickly.

    1. I would, if SMMT would allow it... ;-)

  2. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 11, 2021

    The Q1 Dutch BEV market is such a tragedy.
    And I don't know who to blame.
    Is it the overhang of unsold but registered BEV from December?
    Is it the Dutch Corona lockdown?
    Are other markets prioritized over The Netherlands?
    Is it the PHEV avalanche of new models? (no phev incentives!)

    I have first to think and then to write about this.

    1. I wouldn't call it a tragedy... It's just a funny side effect of the yearly BEV incentives step-down. It's not like people are suddenly buying PHEVs instead of BEVs: it's just that most people who wanted to buy a BEV pulled forward the purchase before the end of last year. As a result, PHEVs temporarily become more visible, despite not selling significantly more, because they aren't crowded out by BEVs... Things will be back to normal as the year progresses -- like every year.

      Aside from that: what do you mean "no PHEV incentives"? As discussed back in February (under the January results article), PHEVs actually get *huge* incentives, in the form of paying almost no CO2 penalties, due to totally absurd assumptions about their emissions savings...

    2. I guess you mean the BPM. I guess that makes some difference, but it is not as huge an incentive as 4-5 yrs ago when the "Bijtelling" for PHEVs was 7% or before that even 0%. PHEV sales have not come close to the share seen in those days (when PHEVs had the same Q4-Q1 dynamics).

    3. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 12, 2021

      The side effect of the December peak was starting to diminish in late January in previous years. Now it is holding for three whole months. I need more data on this.

      There are huge incentive for OEM to produce PHEV, no incentives in the Netherlands to buy PHEV.
      It has an other reason.

    4. Everyone and their mother tried to get an BEV in December 2020, because some taxes changed as of January 1-st. Undurprisingly, the next few months were/are low(er).

    5. Dutch leasing companies buy EVs in bulk late in the year to lock in the BIK rates. They then lease them out all during the following year.

      As for 'absurd assumptions' about emissions, look no further than BEVs counting as zero CO2 instead of using a life-cycle estimate.

    6. The overhang was smaller in 2019, because it only affected some models back then; and it was smaller in 2020, because many models either only became available in the new year, or had not been delivered in sufficient numbers to satisfy demand before. This time around is essentially the first time we see the effect in full force... This shouldn't materially affect the usual recovery later in the year, though.

      As for PHEVs: saving thousands of Euros -- or even more than 10,000 on some models -- in CO2 penalties is a *huge* incentive for buyers.

    7. @Marten
      In 2019 every car maker held back XEV sales because of EU penalties in 2020.
      Exept Tesla.
      So maybe Q1 2021 is the new normal.

    8. @Doggydogworld looking only at tailpipe emissions is not absurd. Tailpipe emissions objectively do play an outsized role in terms of overall impact; the simplification is pretty much a necessity for practical reasons; and it's close enough to being proportional to actual lifetime emissions savings, thus making it sufficient for the intended purpose of incentivising less polluting options. Pretending PHEVs have 75% of the average emission savings of BEVs on the other hand is completely wrong and unhelpful.

  3. Funny that the Mokka-e outsold the Peugeot e2008, but the e208 outsold the Corsa-e...

    I guess that's just a temporary glitch though, as the Mokka-e made its initial deliveries, while the other models participated in last year's pull-forward...

  4. Not a single city EV in the top 20.

    BEVs and PHEVs only for the wealthy?

    Something must be wrong with incentives and EU rules.

    1. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 12, 2021

      The incentives are for company cars. The short range city-ev are unfit for company cars and unfit for most private use cases.

      They are designed to be a niche product.

    2. Because people buying sub-compacts like Zoe, 208, Captur etc. or compacts like Leaf, ID.4, Niro, Kuga etc. are generally considered "wealthy", right?

    3. Germany in March e-up 3599,SKODA CITIGO 593,SEAT MII 362(almost monthly production).Not enough for all countries.The same story with the Fiat 500 was only enough for 3 countries.The main reason is insufficient production,not a lack of demand

  5. The ID4 was outsold by the XC40.
    - Why mention the ID4 and not the Volvo?
    The ID4 was outsold by the Model 3.
    - Why a picture of the VW instead of the Tesla?

    1. 1 - Because i had already mentioned the XC40 siblings in January and February, so that's nothing new;

      2 - Because it's something new, as it is the first time i've posted a picture of the VW ID.4, while i have been posting pictures of the Model 3 for years now.

      Xtra - I am not attached to brand A or B, but to new stuff coming to the market, which is why i prefer to highlight what is new, and the ID.4 is the newest hot stuff around.

    2. @2hansome
      I think Jose Pontes is correct. Every new model should have the picture at least once, so that a prospective customer could see the model. Besides VW ID4 being a dedicated BEV built of the new MEB architecture needs to be shown and given priority than the XC40 which is built of ICE architecture.

    3. Because ID.4 did this in two weeks.

  6. Eventually all the self-registered ID3/ID4 will be sold and then the fresh units will hit the market and BEV sales will increase.
    Do you think its so easy to sell those ID3/ID4, please read this article as how the dealer tried to ripoff prospective customer of MachE and scared him away.

    Thats why the direct sales should be allowed for BEVs, otherwise its all dillydallying and only PHEV/FHEV/MHEV will sell.

  7. The *real* news is IMO this:

    Stellantis ending up first in OEM ranking for Q1, with 18.6% market share is a small sensation IMHO. Peugeot 8%, Opel 5.9%, Citroen 2.5% - it's very clear now why former PSA managers have a say in Stellantis now.

    Renault & co. with 15.7% and Volkswagen AG with 14.4% did so-so, Tesla on the 7-th place with 9.5% of the market even worse.

  8. Hi, is there any chance you could give full figures for BEVs and PEVs instead of giving market shares? I am sadly not an expert in dutch car market, and knowing that PHEVs makes xx% and BEV xx% does not mean much to me :(

    1. Well, you got the BEV+PHEV total -- so from the percentages, you can derive approximate numbers for each category...

  9. AnonymousMay 02, 2021

    Has anybody taken into account the sales price of each vehicle in order to rank vehicles by revenue, rather than units? I know that it would be ballpark prices, as the Model 3 for example has a range of prices.