Thursday, December 17, 2020

Netherlands November 2020


Volvo XC40 EV lands in hot market (30% Share!)

November saw the Dutch EV market stay in full charge, with the 9,910 units representing the market's best score ever, if we exclude the December months, that are prone incentive-derived year end rushes. 

So...will this December post a new record performance?

The PEV market share jumped to 30% (23% BEV) in November, pulling the 2020 plugin share to 18% (14% BEV), this time PHEVs were the main driver of growth, jumping 450% YoY, to 2,350 registrations, the category best result in this market since December 2016, when it was still benefiting from significant incentives.

Still, the BEV/PHEV technology sales split remained at 75% BEV, 25% PHEV, which together with the current volumes growth, it shows a healthy behavior, on its way to become the second market, after Norway, where BEVs are the new normal.

Looking at last month best sellers, the VW ID.3 won it again, with the German EV being also #1 in the overall market, so the Volkswagen new model could to be the main candidate for the 2021 Best Seller title...In the overall market.

But the event of the month was the impressive landing of the Volvo XC40 EV, with an amazing 825 units, propelling it to the runner-up spot in November, so depending if this performance has continuity, the Belgian-Swede EV could be a dark horse in this market next year.

The Kia Niro EV was 3rd last month, registering a record 767 units, being its third 700-something performance in a row, so it seems Kia's production (or is it demand?) is maxed out for the moment. 

Outside the Top 3, there were two other good news for Volvo, with the S/V60 PHEV reaching #6, with 406 registrations, the twins best result since December 2016, while in #5 we have that honorary and full EV Volvo model, the Polestar 2, with the Sino-Swede scoring a record 500 deliveries, making 3 Volvos in the Top 6...

Another model showing strong results is the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French crossover benefiting from PSA's production ramp up to reach 261 deliveries in November and the 9th position.

On the PHEV side, besides Volvo plugin hybrids, the only other model shining was the Renault Captur PHEV, with a record 191 registrations, while on the second half of the table, we should also mention the tiny SEAT e-Mii EV (aka the Spanish twin of the VW e-Up) scoring a best ever 173 deliveries and joining the Top 20 table, while in #20 we have the Mercedes EQC, that after a looong production ramp up, is finally ready to join the Best Sellers table, having scored a record 128 deliveries in November.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the strong landing of the FIAT 500e, with its first 100 units, so we could have here another contender for a Top 20 position in 2021.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the VW ID.3 surpassed the Tesla Model 3 and is the current runner-up, but because the Californian is having a strong high tide in December, expect it to not only surpass the German hatchback in the last stage of the race, but also overcome the the current leader Kia Niro EV and win the 2020 Best Seller title in December.

Another model climbing positions is the Hyundai Kona EV, now in #4, but the Climber of the Month was undoubtedly the Polestar 2, that jumped five positions, to #12, while its Volvo relatives S/V60 PHEV twins were up to #8, highlighting the good moment of the Swedish brand, that will have a 1-2 win in the PHEV category this year and might even be the only two plugin hybrids on the table by the end of this year.

On the second half of the table, the Audi e-Tron was up two positions, to #11, consolidating its status as the Best Selling Luxury model in this market.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (14%) is the leader, followed by Kia (12%), while Tesla (9%, down 1%), was surpassed by Volvo (11%, up 1%), with the Swedish maker currently being the Bronze medalist.

Expect Tesla to recover the podium position in December, maybe even reaching Silver.


  1. Hello José,

    do you account for registration updates to let's say the Netherlands, Norway and Spain that occur after the month has ended? I noticed that numbers increase by a few hundred vehicles each for each month several weeks after each month has ended, at least on Did you notice this as well?

  2. Looks like the top 5 is decided... The only question being whether ID.3 might yet surge ahead and beat the Niro to second place?

    Having said that, keep in mind that the ID.3 (and all other newcomers) are facing their first incentive step-down, which always causes a huge pull-forward -- so the current results aren't really indicative of regular results next year. (Though I wonder whether availability of only one trim might be diluting this effect in a significant way?...)

    On that note, EQC seeing so few deliveries despite the upcoming step-down is pretty horrible.

    1. It looks there is a certain market qty for BEV SUVS. As soon as one more vehicle arrives the sales of the others go down.
      Now Audi E-tron, EQC, Ipace and Volvo XC40 are deviding this market.
      Next year several more will join. Competition will be similar to the mobile phone market when it started.

    2. That's not how it works. While new models can take some share from existing ones in some cases, for the most part, new EV models rather grow the overall market. (At the expense of combustion cars.)

    3. Maarten VinkhuyzenDecember 20, 2020

      The EQC is too expensive to see much change in its costs by the next incentive step down.

      The 2018 stepdown was a huge push for the expensive models like Model S&X and I-pace. The Audi e-tron and EQC missed that round.

      The 2019 stepdown was for the Model 3 and the like.
      This year the most influence is on the lower priced models.

      But the market is very weak thanks to Covid-19. We probably don't even reach last years BEV sales.

    4. My understanding was that last year's step-down affected lower-priced models as well? Which is why we saw many models surge before the end of the year... (Though not all, since some makers slept through it, or consciously decided to ignore it...)

  3. Seems very unlikely that the Volvos will end up the only PHEVs in the top 20... While Peugeot 208 will surely beat the Outlander, and XC40 surge way ahead, I don't see what other two BEV could overtake the Outlander in the last month...

  4. Opel Corsa, Peugeot 208, Renault Zoe and Mazda MX-30 are very close in sales.
    Apparently range is not so important for a commuting car.
    ID3 low range will be interesting to watch once it arrives.

    1. The MX-30 just entered the market -- it will very likely fall behind the superior contenders, once the initial demand peak is over.

      (Also, I'm not sure why you would even compare it to models in a different vehicle class...)

    2. Maarten VinkhuyzenDecember 20, 2020

      Many new buyers and sellers have no idea what the WLTP numbers really mean. Expect many disappointment buyers the coming years.

      After the release of the 40kWh ZOE followed by the 40kWh Leaf Carlos Ghosn announced that bigger batteries were not needed and future price decreases in battery costs would be used to lower the BEV price.

      This was followed by the ZOE 50 kWh and Nissan admitting the not releasing the 60kWh battery was a very costly blunder.

      Expect WLTP 500km combined becoming the minimum for the mainstream models. The smaller batteries will be for niche cases.

      The market is still making baby steps.

    3. I included the Mazda as it may be used as a commuting vehicle just like the others mentioned.

    4. What all the "this much range is enough" claims miss, is that there is no hard "enough" cut-off: more range always means more flexibility / less inconvenience. Of course, depending on use cases, at some point you see diminishing returns: but with an additional 100 km of range costing less than $2000 at today's battery prices, the vast majority of people will go with a slightly more expensive 400 km model over a competitor that only has 300...

    5. For second car/commute car, small range could be worth it, if the price is right.

      But for regular one car families, i agree with Maarten, 500 WLTP is the bare minimum.

    6. Sure, *in theory* a "second" car for commutes, shopping etc. could do with a much smaller range... But by that theory, the original Leaf -- and other low-range EVs that came after it -- should have been a roaring success.

      The reality is that almost nobody is willing to pay serious money for a car with limited flexibility. It only works if it's *really* cheap -- like the HongGuang Mini... Cheaper (possibly after incentives) than more flexible entry-level combustion cars.

  5. This market clearly shows that competition is heating up for Tesla. VW ID3, Polestar, Audi etron, Volvo, Hyundai Kona....all on the same level as Tesla. Even for December, the Norwegian numbers suggest it already, it will be difficult to maintain its leading position in Europe.

    1. But not in December. Now we have the Tesla Rush in all countrys.

    2. e-tron having a third of the sales YTD (even before Tesla's strong December) is "on the same level"... Suuuuure. Oh, and lets pretend all these vehicles in other categories are actual competitors!

    3. In media reports Tesla has already admitted sluggish Model X and S sales. The company will therefore concentrate on Model Y sales and production, although competition is quite strong there as well. However, the market segment is for Model Y much bigger than the sport sedan market.

    4. Tesla has admitted no such thing. You are making things up again. Elon did mention on a few occasions that he doesn't think S/X is very important for Tesla going forward, simply because it's a much smaller market than 3/Y, and thus less relevant both to revenues and the mission.

    5. In the other hand, last year between Jan and Nov, more than 9.000 E-Golf were sold in Norway. This year, less than 5.000 were sold during the same time, but a little more than 5.000 ID3 were sold...See the trend of whose market lunch the ID3 is eating from? :)

    6. Sheesh, the fanboy brigade doesn't cease to expand...
      No sustainable/profitable business can be attainable on a basis of "Hit & Run".
      Due to the market size and the EV share on the market-mix accomplished in Norway, we can already draw some valuable inferences:
      1-Incumbent EVs (Nissan Leaf, Tesla Model S, Renault Zoe, BMW i3) are having a hard time retaining share, let's then analyse current status and past trends.
      4529 registrations (11 months 2020)
      5820 registrations (11 months 2019)
      11584 registrations (11 months 2018)
      3328 registrations (11 months 2017)

      Model S
      285 registrations (11 months 2020)
      1119 registrations (11 months 2019)
      3033 registrations (11 months 2018)
      2686 registrations (11 months 2017)

      2232 registrations (11 months 2020)
      2082 registrations (11 months 2019)
      2814 registrations (11 months 2018)
      2111 registrations (11 months 2017)

      2474 registrations (11 months 2020)
      4701 registrations (11 months 2019)
      5239 registrations (11 months 2018)
      4524 registrations (11 months 2017)

      Since BEV market share is at 52% for 11 months in 2020, who of the above are retaining/conquering market?

      Meanwhile, YTD standings for Audi e-tron (9077 registrations), Hyundai Kona (5120 registrations), MG ZS (3360 registrations), MB EQC (3214 registrations), Kia Niro (1477 registrations) and newcomers; VW ID.3 (5431 registrations), Polestar 2 (2151 registrations), Peugeot 208 EV (1756 registrations), Peugeot 2008 EV (1245 registrations), Porsche Taycan (1040 registrations), Mazda MX-30 (726 registrations), Volvo XC40 EV (383 registrations).
      2-Who is retaining/conquering customers for the brand?

      3-Who is surrending market share?

    7. What's your point? That recently introduced models have higher sales numbers? Well, I guess that explains why all makers are introducing new models...

    8. What?! Are you blind? 3 questions!
      What is your "take" on them?
      Unless your take is: sell computers, then move on to sell music players, then move on to sell phones, then move on to sell... cars.

    Tesla m3 is going to be year's no1, id3 no2

  7. Maarten VinkhuyzenDecember 20, 2020

    The Volkswagen ID.4 Pro 150kWh is just in time for the (in)famous end-of-year rush. Volume deliveries started this week with 139 on Friday and 113 on Saturday. Probably beating the Niro this month.

    The rest of the world will likely have to wait for next year.

    1. An ID.4 Pro 150KWh would have a fabulous an ID.4 with an engine with 150 kW of power is some how more understanding...:)