Models: Small EVs shine in Record month
After a rough start of the year, the second half of 2020 has become a records fest, after a record September, last month brought another record score, with over 400.000 units, and expect December to perform yet another record, maybe above 500,000 registrations.
With plugin registrations going up 133%, the highest monthly growth rate in over 8 years, with both technologies running hot, with BEVs jumping 125%, to 289.000 units, while PHEVs jumped 155%, to a 125.000 units.
This brilliant result has allowed the YTD numbers increase the growth rate to +32% YoY, a step above the 2019 growth rate (+11%), so it looks 2020 will end up as a recovery year for plugins.
With the overall automotive market in the red, added to another record month, the November PEV share jumped to a record 5.9% share (4.1% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3.8% (2.6% BEV), and with the help of a great December, expect the final 2020 share to end north of 4%, well above the 2.5% of last year.
The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its share on the way, to some 6-7% in 2021, and in 2022...The Disruption Zone, with two-digit scores.
The half tide mode Tesla Model 3 won another monthly Best Seller title, with over 39.000 deliveries, its best off-peak score ever, so expect the sports sedan to have a record result in December, while the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored a 33.094 units last month, its 5th record score in a row, with the tiny EV closing in to the leader, and expect the tiny EV to continue ramping up deliveries throughout December.
While the Model Y repeated the monthly Bronze medal, the surprise in this Top 5 is the appearance of the Great Wall Ora Black Cat, with almost 10.000 units, a new record for the City EV, highlighting the current main trend in China, the rise of city EVs.
On the YTD table, the Wuling Mini EV shined once again, removing the Renault Zoe from the runner-up spot, earning it the Silver medal position, while making the tiny EV the strongest non-Tesla candidate for the 2021 Best Seller title, while the #4 Tesla Model Y will have to work hard in December to beat the French hatchback and reach the podium, as the 20.000 units difference seem almost insurmountable, with just one race to go.
Regarding other position changes, the VW Passat PHEV jumped two positions, to #9, followed by the Baojun E-Series, that was also up, to #10.
On the PHEV side, the favorite for the 2020 Selling trophy is the VW Passat PHEV, that thanks to strong results in both China and Europe, was last month Best Selling PHEV, and only a surprising score by the BMW 530e/Le twins in December will change the current chain of events.
On the second half of the table, two more small Chinese EVs are on the rise, with Great Wall's Ora Black Cat jumping three positions, to #14, while the Chery eQ climbed to #18, and in #19 we now have the much antecipated Volkswagen ID.3, that should jump a few more positions in December, possibly ending the year in #15.
Finally, outside the Top 20, one model deserves a mention, with the rising #21 Li Xiang One (4.646 units in November, new record) looking to join the table in the last stage of the race, but for that to happen, it will not only need to recover the 1.300 units of advance that the #20 Peugeot 208 EV, but also keep a close eye on the high tide of the #22 Tesla Model X, which is some 1.200 units behind it and hope that the BYD Han EV (7.482 units in November, 4th record in a row!) doesn't show up on the rearviewmirror on last minutes of the race, as the flagship BYD is doing everything to join the table already in 2020.
Manufacturers: Chinese makers on the rise
The mid-tide mode Tesla managed to win another monthly Best Seller title, but has seen the rising SGMW joint-venture cut the distance, wth the small EV maker scoring an amazing 41.793 score last month, allowing it to climb one position in the ranking, to #5, exchanging positions with Mercedes, but don't think the German maker wasn't pushing the pedal to the metal, as the 24.091 units it did in November represented its 5th record in a row(!), but it's just that SGMW is in a different league, and it should jump a few more spots in December, probably ending the year with the Bronze medal.
Back to Mercedes, of the German Three Marys (Audi, BMW, Mercedes), it looks to be the most dynamic in the present days, and with several models to launch in 2021, just BEVs, it will be the EQA, EQB and EQS, expect it to become a Top 5 member next month.
By the way, in a record month, there were record galore, 10 in this Top 20, to be exact, besides the aforementioned, the most relevants came from Volkswagen (27.756 units), that should have secured the runner-up spot for 2020 (Not bad for a Year Zero, not bad at all...), but also Great Wall, that registered 11.649 units, mostly thanks to their Cat Pack, allowing them to climb two positions, to #16, while Chery (re)joined the table, in #20, thanks to a record 7.927 units.
Highlighting the Chinese brands good moment, SAIC climbed to #11, while GAC was up to #14, with 7.556 units, a new year best for the brand.
Interestingly, despite the recent launch (in some markets) of the RAV4 PHEV model, Toyota had the worst score of this Top 20, being inclusively beaten by niche makers, like Porsche and NIO.
Toyota's potential to thrive in the plugin market is still there, but the window of opportunity is slowly closing down...It kind of reminds those young players that have everything to rise to the top, but then years go by, and they never seem to materialize the promises made in the past...
Looking at the ranking by OEMs, SAIC won in November, with 54.960 registrations, followed by Tesla (54.566 units), while the Volkswagen Group was relegated to 3rd, with little more than 52.000 units.
SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.