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| The facelifted BAIC E200 EV, formerly known as E150 EV |
Corrected Edition
Looking at last month numbers, the BYD Qin continues to grow, albeit more slowly (Up 49 units regarding last month), the #3 Zotye E20 had a somewhat poor performance, selling only 381 units (Worst result since May), but it's still hoping to displace the now discontinued Chery QQ3 EV from the Second Spot.
The surprise of the month came from BAIC, its refreshed E150 EV, now called E200 EV, reached for the first time the four-digit sales area, selling 1.040 units, placing it in Second on the November ranking and enabling it to rise to #5 in the YTD table. Just to compare numbers, in 2013 BAIC had sold only 710 E150's...
Editor's Note - After the confusion generated by wrong Kandi numbers, i've decided it´s better to leave Kandi out of the ranking, their numbers just aren't as reliable as BYD, for example, and besides, they create background noise that diverts attention from the overall picture. If their numbers (Beyond the Quarlerly results) become easier and more reliable to find, i will gladly include them here.
| Pl | China | Oct | YTD | % | '13Pl |
| 1 | BYD Qin | 1.753 | 12.928 | 29 | 9 |
| 2 3 4 5 6 | Chery QQ3 EV e) Zotye E20 Tesla Model S e) BAIC E150/E200 EV BYD e6 | 100 381 500 1.040 229 | 6.416 5.844 4.149 2.619 2.432 | 14 13 9 6 5 | 1 N/A N/A 5 3 |
| TOTAL e) | 5.000 | 45.000 | 100 |
e) Estimate
Source: http://www.chooseauto.com.cn/; seekingalpha.com
Jose, thanks for trying to get to the bottom of the inflated and misleading KNDI numbers and correct them.
ReplyDeleteIf production diverged from sales for the first time in Q3, this suggests Kandi's JV expected to sell many more cars than they did. Now they come into Q4 sitting on significant excess inventory.
Respectfully, I still don't understand why a September tax change can be an explanation for all of this. If it was a widely expected tax change holding up sales in July and August, then that pent up demand should've results in huge sales in the last month of the qtr. The cars were apparently there in inventory and ready to go, no manufacturing contstraints, right?
Its also interesting you think they SOLD only 600 cars in October. Still working off that extra inventory it would seem.
See "Editor's Note" on the article.
DeleteJose, the Kandi data is very clear from the company's SEC 10-Q and quarterly report filings. Your latest update seemed to get it right and you should be confident in using that data! I wonder why the company is now withholding the data from you and the market?
DeleteIt's easy to imagine no being able to deliver a backlog of 5,000 cars in one month, and needing to spread that out over Q4, given a limited number of carrier trucks. Also they were waiting for batteries for some of those inventoried cars. The Q4 Sales (by the JV) should be at least 5,000.
ReplyDeleteHow could Kandi sell an EV without a battery? That sounds like a car that doesn't go.
DeleteWhile I enjoy the analysis, your sources are dubious at best. You never describe *how* you obtain these numbers, or even suggest why we should trust them. Citing http://www.chooseauto.com.cn/ and seekingalpha.com comes off as lazy. Might was well just cite www.google.com.
ReplyDeleteShow me a 100% reliable (And free of charge) source regarding China's EV market and i will send you a 1kg of the finest portuguese pastry...
DeleteThank you for putting in the work to figure out Kandi's 9 month production numbers (and, I agree with your 9 month numbers).
ReplyDeleteOn the Sales side - You are reporting on November and November YTD results (vs. October results), correct? If Yes - then.
Your spreadsheet should say Nov not Oct.
And - I assume you are assuming 600 EVs sold by Kandi in both October and November as 7,279 (9M) + 600 (Oct) + 600 (Nov) = 8,479 (11M).
Also - the below article link contains a quote from Kandi CEO Mr. Hu stating that Kandi's (The JV w Geely) total YTD sales through November are 10,132 EVs. Which is 1653 more EVs than the 8,479 that you have estimated.
Here is the Google Translated quote from Mr. Hu....
Under the policy help, January 2014 to November, sales of 10,132 Condit, is 3.2 times the year 2013. Hu Xiaoming said, plus several other provinces assembly base, Condi year's production capacity has reached 400,000.
Here are the links...
http://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/sdbd/20141215/110921077992.shtml
http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.aspx?from=&to=en&a=http%3A%2F%2Ffinance.sina.com.cn%2Fchanjing%2Fsdbd%2F20141215%2F110921077992.shtml
Jose, will you also go back and update your last worldwide rankings through Q3 to reduce KNDI there too? Regardless of possible debate about who has got it right about monthly estimate (you with ~8,500 YTD through Oct vs Rich saying ~10,000 YTD through Nov), there's no way your post from October showing over 15,000 YTD for KNDI through end of September can be correct. There appears to be no debate that Q3 YTD sales figure is only ~7,000 based on data from the company's SEC filings.
ReplyDeleteI will update the numbers in the next November article
DeleteThank you Jose!! Please keep up the excellent work - you are providing a great service to the many electric vehicle enthusiasts around the world. And, it is much appreciated!!
DeleteThanks Rich
Delete