 |
| Kandies (Condies?) galore, now with certified data. |
Models - PiP is Weakening
The podium places are attributed a long time ago, with the Fourth Place now firmly in Chevy hands, with the soon-to-be-deceased 1st Gen Volt distancing itself from the wrinkled #5 Prius Plug-In, which made its worst sales performance ever (893 units).
Next we have the BMW i3 in #6, followed ever more closely by the ever-improving #7 BYD Qin (1.753 units,
The Ford Fusion Energi is on the verge of being surpassed by the #9 Kandi, while the Renault Zoe (1.290 units) continues to impress in this Second Coming, posting its third straight month in the four-digits area, a first for the french hatch.
A deserved mention should be noted to the BAIC E-Series, having sold 1.040 units last month, enabling it to win a Top 10 position (#9) in the November ranking, this looks to be another model to follow closely next year.
Finally, a curious fact, the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck (Long name for a short car) reached 750 registrations since it started in 2012, which is halfway to be the Best Selling Electric Pick-Up Truck, a title still in the hands of Ford, thanks to its 1.500 Ford Ranger EV, made from 1998 to 2002, so at least until 2016, the Best Seller pick-up truck title belongs to a vehicle sold in a time when Britney Spears was dressing schoolgirl uniforms, Social Networks consisted on emails and Elon Musk still drove gas-powered cars...
| Pl | WORLD | Nov. | YTD | % | '13Pl |
| 1 | Nissan Leaf | 4.874 | 54.969 | 20 | 1 |
| 2 | Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV | 2.215 | 29.628 | 11 | 5 |
| 3 | Tesla Model S | 2.193 | 25.731 | 9 | 4 |
| 4 5 6 | Chevrolet Volt (1) Toyota Prius Plug-In BMW i3 | 1.438 893 1.531 | 19.774 18.106 14.295 | 7 7 5 | 2 3 20 |
| 7 | BYD Qin | 1.753 | 12.928 | 5 | 40 |
| 8 | Ford Fusion Energi | 762 | 10.914 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Kandi EV | 1.500 | 10.132 | 4 | N/A |
| 10 | Renault Zoe | 1.290 | 8.762 | 3 | 6 |
| TOTAL | 26.202 | 277.173 |
Manufacturers - Duels Time!
If the Podium positions are a dead certainty, the race for #4, between Ford and Chevrolet, and #7, between BMW and BYD, will maintain the interest on this ranking until the last month of the year, as both races are separated by less than 100 units.
My guess is that Ford should keep the #4 place, but BMW will have to push hard sales if it wants to maintain the Seventh Spot.
| Pl | WORLD | Nov. | YTD | % | '13Pl |
| 1 | Nissan | 5.005 | 55.621 | 20 | 1 |
| 2 | Mitsubishi | 2.480 | 33.414 | 12 | 3 |
| 3 | Tesla | 2.193 | 25.731 | 9 | 5 |
| 4 | Ford | 1.605 | 20.894 | 8 | 7 |
| 5 6 7 | Chevrolet Toyota BMW | 1.499 976 1.838 | 20.828 19.408 15.484 | 8 7 6 | 2 4 13 |
| 8 | BYD | 1.985 | 15.410 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Renault | 1.785 | 14.836 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Kandi | 1.500 | 10.132 | 4 | N/A |
Questions for December
1 - Will Tesla or Kandi fulfill their promises and present record-busting sales?
2 - Will the BYD Qin continue to post record results?
3 - Can Chevrolet reach the #4 Ford?...
4 - ...And can BYD reach BMW?
Jose, your best estimate approach makes sense in general. However, you and your readers should be especially careful with data around Kandi, a manufacturer you show as #10 manufacturer worldwide on the table above.
ReplyDeleteKNDI is publicly traded in the US. The company has disclosed they are under investigation by US securities market regulators (Securities and Exchange Commission) who may be looking into exaggerations of the company in reports to investors if this accurate:
http://sharesleuth.com/investigations/2014/12/kandi-technologies-group-inc-where-are-the-go-karts
You've experienced some of these exaggerations in your own attempts at reporting on the market. For example, your late November blog post which included October forecasts estimated Kandi 2014 YTD over 17k units. Now in this one, you estimate KNDI sold approx 10k units YTD while including the month of November this time. This is quite a meaningful revision down in a very short period of time.
We probably won't hear Q4 sales figures from Kandi until they report to investors (and file with the SEC) likely in March. Even then, they may not be presenting an accurate picture if the link above is correct and the company has been overstating its position even to the US regulators.
Kandi sold 4,028 EVs in Q4 and 11,307 in FY 2014. Q4 sales were less than some anticipated due to the slowness of the political process. However on December 7 Kandi reported that sales had penetrated into 9 cities, mostly provincial capitals, up from 2 cities in Q3. Since December 7 another city has been added. Mr Hu, Kandi's CEO, has stated "In 2015 Kandi will shock the world."
ReplyDeleteChina's GDP annual growth rate is +7.3% but whereas China's NEV sector annual growth rate is +380% and backed by government policy and incentives. It's a rare investment opportunity. Kandi is the only US listed stock that has full exposure to this sector.
The derogatory comment above, posted by Anonymous, is typical of many of the organized short attacks occurring on all Kandi related articles across the internet. Kandi is heavily shorted and shorts are fighting against a rising tide of fundamentals. Whilst short and distort is their normal practice, they are now taking conjecture and Machiavellian innuendo to the limit. The link he provided goes to a short hit-piece based on deliberately bad "research." His claim that Kandi is under investigation by the SEC was really a case of Kandi assisting in the SEC investigation of 5 US stock promoters who have been charged. There has been no question of Kandi wrong doing, and their financial reports have never been in question.
Bill Watts
Correction: For "December 7" substitute "January 7"
ReplyDeleteBill Watts.