Models: 1-2 win for Tesla in March
The global EV market is back on track, with over 90.000 units delivered in March, representing a 50% growth YoY, the second best result EVER, only behind the 103.000 units of last December.
With YTD sales growing right now at a 36% rate, surpassing the one million mark by the end of the year is a given, the question will be, by how much? Will sales reach 1.1 million? 1.2?
In March, as it has been usual in the last couple of last-month-of-quarter, it was all about Tesla, with the brand placing both their models in the top positions, this time it was the Model S to win the Best Seller of the Month award, setting a new all-time monthly record for a single model ,with 8.125 units, while the Model X also did a personal best performance, with 7.699 units.
Interestingly, Asian markets are showing a preference for the SUV model, with the Model X receiving there the love that it has been lacking in western markets.
Despite this Tesla offensive, placing the Model S and X in the YTD Podium, the Nissan Leaf resisted in the YTD leadership, with a rather surprising 6.470 units delivered, it's best performance in 12 months.
Interestingly, Asian markets are showing a preference for the SUV model, with the Model X receiving there the love that it has been lacking in western markets.
Despite this Tesla offensive, placing the Model S and X in the YTD Podium, the Nissan Leaf resisted in the YTD leadership, with a rather surprising 6.470 units delivered, it's best performance in 12 months.
Below the podium, other models have helped the market to reach near-record levels, like the Renault Zoe, with a record 3.790 deliveries, or the Zhidou D2 EV(!), which registered a best ever 3.593 units. It seems the reports the death of the basic Microcar EV in China were greatly exaggerated...
Positive numbers also by another Chinese model, the BAIC EU260, which recorded 2.608 units, its best result this year.
Positive numbers also by another Chinese model, the BAIC EU260, which recorded 2.608 units, its best result this year.
"But what about the Chevrolet Bolt?" - The new long-range BEV was down to #13, with 3.493 deliveries, as it is still in launch mode, we shouldn't read too much on its deliveries, only after landing in Europe and Asia, where its size and shape is better understood, we will see if the car is a success.
| Pl | WORLD | March | YTD | % | '16Pl |
| 1 | Nissan Leaf | 6.470 | 14.438 | 8 | 1 |
| 2 | Tesla Model S | 8.125 | 13.450 | 7 | 2 |
| 3 | Tesla Model X | 7.699 | 11.550 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 5 6 | Toyota Prius Prime / PHV Renault Zoe BMW i3 | 4.488 3.790 2.822 | 10.447 9.286 7.369 | 6 5 4 | 64 8 6 |
| 7 | BAIC EC180 | 3.605 | 7.129 | 4 | 42 |
| 8 | Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV | 4.044 | 7.024 | 4 | 5 |
| 9 | Chevrolet Volt | 2.530 | 6.520 | 4 | 4 |
| 10 | Zhidou D2 EV | 3.593 | 5.799 | 3 | 32 |
| TOTAL | 90.946 |
186.260
|
 |
| Zhidou D2 EV |
Manufacturers: Tesla #1!
Tesla broke all the records in March, by delivering an unprecedented 15.824 units, shooting for the Manufacturers leadership, dethroning by a large margin the previous leader, BMW.
The German brand is now followed by Nissan (7.003 units, best performance in 12 months) and BAIC (Up three positions to #4), the Chinese carmaker posted a record 7.690 units and seems ready to run with the "Big Boys".
Speaking of "Big Boys", if we look at the Top 4 positions, we see that the standings all follow last year places. All, except for last year leader, BYD, which had seemed to be missing in action in the last couple of months...
Apparently the Shenzhen-based company finally put their act together and posted a decent performance (6.631 deliveries), jumping into the Top 10 at #8, still a low position, but expect it to jump a few more positions in April, possibly even breaking into the Top 5 next month.
The German brand is now followed by Nissan (7.003 units, best performance in 12 months) and BAIC (Up three positions to #4), the Chinese carmaker posted a record 7.690 units and seems ready to run with the "Big Boys".
Speaking of "Big Boys", if we look at the Top 4 positions, we see that the standings all follow last year places. All, except for last year leader, BYD, which had seemed to be missing in action in the last couple of months...
Apparently the Shenzhen-based company finally put their act together and posted a decent performance (6.631 deliveries), jumping into the Top 10 at #8, still a low position, but expect it to jump a few more positions in April, possibly even breaking into the Top 5 next month.
Toyota climbed to #5, while we salute a return to the Top 10, with Mitsubishi profiting from good performances in the UK and Japan to return into the spotlight, at #9.
A notable absent is Volkswagen, after years in the Top 10, it has dropped to #11, with 7.172 units. The German automaker needs to put the Dresden glass-factory (And others) making plug-ins in large volumes as fast as possible, it it wants to return into the Top 10 soon.
| Pl | WORLD | March | YTD | % | '16Pl |
| 1 | Tesla e) | 15.824 | 25.000 | 13 | 2 |
| 2 | BMW | 6.632 | 16.679 | 9 | 3 |
| 3 | Nissan | 7.003 | 15.708 | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | BAIC | 7.690 | 13.240 | 7 | 5 |
| 5 6 7 | Toyota Renault Chevrolet | 4.488 4.207 3.792 | 10.500 10.263 10.025 | 6 6 5 | 30 10 8 |
| 8 | BYD | 6.103 | 8.857 | 5 | 1 |
| 9 | Mitsubishi |
4.164
| 7.370 | 4 | 9 |
| 10 | Mercedes |
3.197
| 7.338 | 4 | 13 |
e) Estimate
Jose,
ReplyDeleteThe data for Tesla seems to be plugged. Up until today, you had US Tesla sales for March at 6200, Europe at 2600, China at 850 and about another 300-500 from other countries. You upped European sales today, I presume for UK and other countries adding 1500 to the number? That seems like an awfully high jump for UK sales, but even taking that at face value, where do the other 5000 sales come from that gets 25000 global sales for the month? Are you estimates for the US that egregiously bad? Have you been basing these on actual new car registrations, or are these purely guess work at this point? Any understanding as to how you get these numbers would be appreciated.
1 - Europe is 4.076 (http://ev-sales.blogspot.pt/2017/04/europe-march-2017.html);
Delete2 - 850 in China is only Model X. Add a few hundreds more for Model S;
3 - I never mentioned 350-500 from other countries;
4 - 25k is the oficial (provisional) number from Tesla, that's why it has a e) on it, it is an estimate made by Tesla itself;
5 - Considering all the markets on the EVS database, i couldn't reach the Tesla estimate, but it was close, as in less than 1.000 units difference;
6 - The fact that i do not post sales reports in every country counted has only to do with lack of time, so counting sales in all posts of EVS does not mean it is the real number for the month.
If you need further details, please send me an email to efeelblog@gmail.com
25.000 global sales are not for the month but for the quarter...
DeleteYou are correct there is a large bust for this last quarter with the published registries not coming close to the claimed sales by Tesla. I've been following Joses/Insideevs etc. numbers amd for the last 3 quarters the error is under 500 cars. No issue there as Jose's numbers are registrations and Tesla's are deliveries.
DeleteHowever, this last quarter the bust looks to be at least 4,000 cars, at least from what Jose has published so far. We might find out more with tomorrows conference call but we're equally likely to get a smokescreen. If there has been a large batch sale, the average selling price should be noticeably down.
There are some concerns that Tesla may have sold substantive numbers to distributors in China in March and that these were not sales made entirely all to specific customers nor can be easily repeated in Q2.
ReplyDeleteTesla has been poorly selling the Model X, after all the sedan is dead but surprisingly Tesla is unable to sell a lot more newer SUVs than older sedans.
ReplyDeleteThat is in fact not a surprise as consumers can`t see the USP of falcon doors (that are unreliable/unsafe) and that also show poor fit&finish. Tesla realy shoot in the foot with this one.
Give me the money to buy one and would rather have one than two of each monstrous outdated and toxic dinosaurs Cayennes, Bentley or Audi Q7...
DeleteI also don't get where the Tesla cars are, maybe in the ocean or on stockpile.
ReplyDeleteA "dead sedan" that, with an average cost of some $100.000, have been sold almost at twice the rate of a car from a "super car brand"(BMW I3), that cost less than half of a Model S...sure. And the Tesla X that no one wants because its "gimmick" back doors its selling even at a better rate than the Model S at the same time after its launch in 2012...
ReplyDeleteCome on, Tesla X RHD are only now arriving in UK, Hong-Kong, Australia, Japan , New Zeland, and Tesla is only beginning selling officially in Taiwan, South Korea, New Zeeland, Portugal, Ireland, Jordan, UAE... So little humility in some comments would be welcomed.
For example, you don't know per sure the sales in UK for Q1, and for Canada in March, and in Hong-Kong Tesla have sold almost 600 Tesla in February ( with 551 (!) Tesla X of them), and we don't know March figures, and the figures for a lot of other markets, and for USA is only estimates we can do.
I'm still amazed how two cars which are twice or three time more expensive than others is selling better than them...
Thanks for that info on Hong Kong, 551 MX in February is even higher than i estimated, but considering what i saw there, i am not surprised.
DeleteSo, MX deliveries are pretty much covered, my only doubt is the missing 500 MS...
Maybe Taiwan/UAE/South Korea are absorbing more MS than estimated, one thing is certain, at first the 25k mark seemed a bit Ludicrous, but right now it is justified.
All to say that Tesla has once again beaten the odds. Next stop: Q2 2017.
If you enter Electreks numbers for Hong Kong (3,000 for Q1) and China (4799 for Q1) the bust is gone, overshoots by more than 1,000 but just waiting to be delivered.
DeleteThe only problem will be Hong Kong will be zero for Q2 or close and there was speculation the some part of the China batch was to re-sellers; I'll have to check the 8K for futher info, so look for a sales drop in Q2 compared to Q1
And it seems that Q1 in China and Hong-Kong was really passing the marks with some 8.000 cars (almost 5.000 S and X imported to China and an estimate 3.000 in Hong.Kong with the end of EV tax waiver at April 1srt there!).
ReplyDeletehttps://electrek.co/2017/05/03/tesla-q1-china-hong-kong/
Wow. Impressive. Well, now not even the Model S deliveries are left unmapped...
DeleteAND it also helps to explain other divergencies in other OEMs.
Thanks for the tip!
You are welcomed José. When I saw this article in Electrek site, I knew it will important to share it and add it to this discussion. Thus, as I was at work, I couldn't use my usual user name as in my home computer.
DeleteThe estimation for Hong-Kong let me very hungerly to see the real figures for march sales, but we will have to wait for the 29 or 30 may to know, when the Hong-Kong transport department use to publish its official figures.
April & Mai - Switzerland plz
ReplyDeleteYou are really doing a fantastic work but it seams to be hard to get out all numbers. Now BMW have said that they under the first quate sold around 19400 plug-in cars. I don't know how many i8 you have but there number of 8089 sales of i:series could be right with your numbers but then the iPerformence numbers isn't right.
ReplyDeletehttp://insideevs.com/bmw-q1-2017-plug-in-sales-at-4-of-total-sales-double-year-ago/