Friday, July 22, 2016

2016 Forecasts - Half Year Update

In the beginning of the year, i published some forecasts regarding 2016 that me and my partners from EV Volumes made, let's see how they are, now that we are at the middle of the year:

2016 ForecastsJoseRolandViktor
1) World Total850.000850.000N/A
2) World #1BYD TangMit. Outlander PHEVN/A
3) China Total400.000350.000350.000
4) China #1BYD TangBYD TangBYD Tang
5) USA Total175.000170.000170.000
6) USA #1Chevrolet VoltChevrolet VoltTesla Model S
7) Japan Total30.00023.00038.000
8) Japan #1Nissan LeafMit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEV
9) Europe Total250.000280.000280.000
10) Europe #1Mit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEV
11) Netherlands T.27.50035.00035.000
12) Netherlands #1Mit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEV
13) Norway Total45.00050.00050.000
14) Norway #1Volkswagen e-GolfVolkswagen e-GolfVolkswagen e-Golf
15) UK Total40.00040.00045.000
16) UK #1Mit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEV
17) France Total37.50042.00040.000
18) France #1Renault ZoeRenault ZoeRenault Zoe
19) Germany Total37.50044.00035.000
20) Germany #1VW Passat GTEKia Soul EVKia Soul EV

1) With sales at 306k, sales are up 48%, so if we multiply last year sales by 1.48, we get 812k...Not that far off, then.

2) Nissan Leaf is #1 right now, with 27k, followed by the Tesla Model S (22k), BYD Tang (19k) and Outlander PHEV(15k). But i'm still betting on the Tang, it's the model with most growth potential.

3) Sales are up 118%, so multiplying last year total by 2.18, we get 440k, which is even better than our most optimistic forecasts... 

4) BYD Tang is #1, with 19k, with the #2 (BAIC E-Series) 9k behind...Enough said.

5) The US market is growing 18%, which is leading to a 136k total number, which is 34k below expected. Then again, the Chevy Bolt  and Prius Prime might still pull the market up, right?

6) With the Model S at 11k and the Chevrolet Volt at 10k, anything can still happen here, but i must say, at this point i Viktor got it right...

7) With Japan growing 22%, they are set to a 31k total number.

8) With the Leaf at 9k and the Outlander PHEV at 4k, Nissan's hatch has 90% probability of winning the 2016 title.

9) The European EV Market is growing at a 20% rate, so the final number will be around 233k, a bit below our forecasts.

10) With the Zoe, Outlander PHEV and Leaf all around 11k, it is too early to give a sure winner, but we were expecting more from the plug-in SUV...

11) Sales are down 61%(!), so the total number should be around 10-15k, much lower than our forecasts.

12) Another big miss, right now the most likely Best Sellers are the Tesla Model S, Volvo XC90 T8 or the BMW 330e.

13) I remember we had some difficulty doing this forecast, as we were afraid to be too conservative, but with growth at just 30%, the market is going for 45k by year end, within our forecasts.

14) The VW e-Golf is still #1, but not for long, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV seems unstoppable right now.

15) The UK market is up some 30% and headed to some 38k, now let's see how Brexit impacts the EV Market...

16) The Outlander PHEV will be #1 with 80% certainty, but the Mercedes C350e might still surprise.

17) The French EV market is up a healthy 53%, leading to some 42k, a win to Roland's forecast.

18) Renault Zoe has 7k, the #2 Nissan Leaf has 2k. 

19) Looking just at the growth rate (8%), it this market would go for some 30k, but incentives kicking in, expect a tidal wave of registrations, so the 44k of Roland seems perfectly possible.

20) Quite frankly, anything can happen, as nobody knows who will benefit most from the incentives, but my bet now would be the BMW i3, currently #2 and receiving new batteries just in time for the new incentives.


  1. I find a great similarity between these forecasts and mine (See:

  2. Great information, love reading your blog.