Thursday, July 23, 2020

China June 2020

2020 BAOJUN E300 Plus EV: Interior and Exterior Before Price Release in  China - YouTube
Baojun E300: It's this what the Autonomous Driving pods will look like?

Tesla and the Minions

The overall Chinese market returned to negative numbers in June (-6% YoY), but on paper, plugins fared much worse, being down 53% last month.

But this number is misleading, because last month result, with over 91,000 units, was in fact the market second best result in the last 12 months, while June 2019 marked an all-time high for plugins in China, due to a sales rush derived from the subsidies changes, that happened at the time.

Expect next month to see a return to growth, as July ‘19 was the first month with the current subsidy rules.

With this out of the way, June was the best month this year, and that shows on June’s plugin share, with 5.5% (4.1% BEV), pulling up the 2020 share by 0.4%, to 4.7% (3.6% BEV), which is still a step below from the 5.5% of 2019, but it is a step in the right direction and hopefully the second half of the year will bring the possibility to (at least) reach last year's score.

Looking at June Best Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 dominated the scene, almost tripling the deliveries of the surprise runner-up, the Baojun E-Series, highlighting the most recent trend in this market, the return of City EVs, underlined by the small Chery eQ and Great Wall ORA R1, that were were #6 and #7 respectively, in June.

Here’s June’s Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit a record 15,023 units (including estimated imports), and while it’s still not an all time high for EVs in China (that is still in the hands of the BAIC EU-Series – 21,963 units last December), Tesla’s midsizer is getting closer to it. And the Model 3 is starting to get in the way of the category Best Sellers in the overall market, as the Californian was #23 in June, ahead of the #24 BMW 3-Series and not that far-off from the #21 Mercedes C-Class, so the Tesla sports sedan still has some room to grow. Will we see it reach some 20,000 units/month cruise speed this year? Intriguingly, in Q2 the Model 3 started slow (4,312 units in April), then picked up the pace in May (11,468) and ended the quarter with a bang, with 15,023 units, replicating Tesla’s typical behavior elsewhere. A coincidence, or is Tesla China also addicted to end-of-quarter peak deliveries?

#2 – SAIC Baojun E-Series

With the end of subsidies for most of the small city EVs, unable to reach the minimum 250 kms range, Baojun won the lottery, thanks to their E-Series (E100/200/300) lineup of City EVs, with the Shanghai Auto and General Motors offspring watching its sales jump in the past few months, winning a 2nd spot in June, thanks to 5,875 units last month, a new year best. The access to the current subsidy, added to competitive pricing (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes it an appealing model for car-sharing companies, as well as other kinds of fleets. 

#3 – BYD Qin Pro EV

The maker’s reply to the GAC Aion S and Xpeng P7 reached  4,303 units in June, so BYD’s bet on its electric sedan to stay among the podium Best Sellers is working, but demand could end up being an issue soon, not only because of the ever increasing competition from other makers, but also because of the internal competition of the upcoming Han full size car, an appealing and technologically advanced model that might sway some buyers from its smaller sibling.

#4 – GAC Aion S

GAC’s sleek sedan was only 4th in June, having registered 3,695 units (excluding the Toyota-badged iA5 units), an unexpected drop regarding the previous month, that might be linked to the arrival of its SUV sibling, the Aion V. One of the most competitive domestic electric sedans on the market, the Aion S should continue to be a regular in this Top 5, being a strong candidate to the 2020 medals positions.

#5 – BMW 530Le

The BMW luxury sedan continues to be a hot item in China, impressing in more than one way, first with the steady demand flow, consistently scoring 2,500-plus performances, second, the full-size sedan is running in the top positions with cheaper models, and thirdly, despite the wave of new full-size models (Li Xiang One is the most successful of them), both imported and locally-made, the big Bimmer is still the undisputed leader in the Luxury category, continuing to sell close to 3,000 units per month, which is well above its direct competitors, that are happy to reach 1,000 units in one month.

BYD Song Pro EV High power version specs, price, photos, offers and  incentives
BYD Song Pro EV:  A future Best Seller?

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with Tesla already having enough advantage to start preparing the celebrations for its first Best Selling Model trophy ceremony, while the Baojun E-Series jumped two spots, to 5th, thanks to 5,875 deliveries, a new year best.

If in the past months, the hype was about EV startups, now the mood is changing, with only one startup model climbing in the ranking, as the Weltmeister EX5 was up to #12, thanks to 1990 units, its best score in the past 10 months.

Now, City EVs are returning to the spotlight, not only with the Baojun E-Series, but also with the Chery eQ climbing to #8, thanks to 2,632 units, its best result in a year, while the Greal Wall Ora R1 (2,601 units, new year best) was up to #10, now making 3 small BEVs in the Top 10.  

BYD also had a positive month, with the e2 compact hatchback climbing one spot, to #13, thanks to 1,517 units, a new year best, while the Shenzhen maker sees two models joining the table, with the Tang PHEV (1,197 units, best score since last October) back to the Top 20, in #19, while the Song Pro EV (1,086 units, new personal best) is a new face in the ranking, and could climb higher in the next few months.

Other models on the rise are the Roewe ei6 PHEV climbing to #18, while the locally-made VW Passat PHEV, jumped to #14, thanks to 1,357 units, leading a strong month for the German maker, that had five (5!) plugin models scoring four-digit results, besides the aforementioned Passat PHEV, the Tiguan PHEV, the Tayron PHEV compact SUV, the e-Lavida sedan and the e-Bora sedan all registered over 1,000 units in June.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the BYD Song Pro PHEV, that registered a year best score of 1,060 units last month, jumping to #21, making it 6 BYD models in the Top 21 positions(!), while the NIO barge flagship SUV, the ES8, scored 1,264 units last month, its best performance since June ’19, mostly due to the new 100 kWh version, and the Honda XN-V EV, basically the made-for-China BEV version of the Honda HR-V, had a record 1,268 units score last month. So...Is Honda finally waking up to BEV’s?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (16%, down 1%) is still in the leadership, but slowly losing charge, with Tesla (14%) firm in 2nd, same as SAIC (10%) in 3rd, while below the podium, we see a position change, with Volkswagen (7%, up 1%) climbing to #4, switching positions with GAC (6%, down 1%), with BAIC and BMW, both with 5%, are waiting for a chance to climb higher. 


  1. Table says "May" instead of "June."

  2. AnonymousJuly 23, 2020

    I don't think it's demand problem, but if so, please GAC bring Aion S to Europe!

  3. AnonymousJuly 23, 2020

    Positive developments on the China PEV market, with interesting changes on the Top20 thus leading to an alteration on the Top5 classification, all the while Nio was making significative progresses.

    From the posted data, Q22020 standings are:

    1st Tesla with 47565 vehicles
    2nd BYD Auto with 45860 vehicles
    3rd SAIC Motor with 29718 vehicles
    4th GAC Group with 18211 vehicles
    5th BMW Group with 13564 vehicles

  4. Reportedly the weak beginning of the quarter for Model 3 was because most new orders coming in were for the recently unveiled long-range variant, while production of that one was only beginning...

  5. Apparently the minimum range requirement for subsidies was raised again in the recent change, now to 300 km. The E300 only has 260 km NEDC from what I gather -- so the sales peak might be a last-minute rush before the subsidies for that one went away as well...

  6. @José the numbers say the Baojun should be (just) ahead of the BMW 530?...

  7. 91270 is a fantastic #. With < than 1/2 the subsidies of last year, if they have purchased this many vehicles, thats a small achievement.
    May be the vehicles sold is less than 2019-06, but if we consider the range factor, then the sales in 2020-06 may be closer since most of the vehicles sold are higher range this year compared to last year.
    I believe every month at least 1 new BEV is going on sale and in July, its Han BEV + PHEV combo.

    Nice to see Tesla selling very well. Any idea on Model S/X sales. I hope they sell all they produce every month instead of stacking upto 1/4 end. With many homes having only retired parents, these small 2/4 seaters like E-Series, eQ, R1 should do for them.

    All automakers are fighting to increase the sales, but seems to be an uphill task with the subsidies being cut. But thats nice and they should try to stand on their own instead of depending on government. Declining battery prices will be helping all these automakers increase the range.

  8. Pueden ir grabando el premio al superventas eléctrico con 6 meses de antelación

  9. 1st 1/2 sales of 360110 translates into annual sales of 720220.
    But 6th month sales of 91270 translates into annual sales of 1095240 and this is very encouraging.
    Hope the coming months will see the sales cross into 100.000 + area and eventually hit the 1 million mark.

    But subsidy cuts are good, as more realistic pricing is used which helps people compare the price of BEVs with ICE.

  10. AnonymousJuly 25, 2020

    What are the sales of Xpeng P7 in June?
    BYD Han started selling this month. Good range and it's almost 5 meters long. Xpeng P7 is also huge and it currently has the highest official EV range.
    They just started selling them. I think these two will be popular.

    1. The P7 production was in the low hundreds (around 300 units), so deliveries was low too, waiting for the production ramp up to continue, if they get some 600 units in July and 1,500 in August, then its a good sign, let's see what happens.

      A new brand, with a new model being made in a new factory, there's a lot that can go wrong, production-wise, so the ramp up will take time.

      As for the Han, despite the new blade-battery, the problem isn't so much on the production side, but actual demand, as regular Chinese brands climb the price latter, the harder things get.

    2. I frankly don't understand BYD's decision to debut the "Blade Battery" -- which is just a fancy name for an LFP battery with a cell-to-pack architecture, similar to the CATL one used in the upcoming new entry-level Chinese Model 3 -- in their high-end model... The price difference almost doesn't matter in this class; while buyers expect top-end range. The safety argument won't sway many, considering that even with ternary batteries, fires are actually pretty rare, and almost never sudden enough to result in injuries...

    3. True, the Qin Pro would have been more logic, but then again, i guess BYD thought it would have more success with the Han, after all, it's not a direct competitor to the Model 3 and the Model S is now something of a dead duck in China.

  11. TrackdazeJuly 26, 2020

    Looks likely that Europe will surpass China as the largest EV market for the Year to June! At end of May it was 307K units. plays chinas 360K to June.

    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

  12. Interesting figures.
    But it would be great if you could also give total BEV numbers for month and YTD (instead of giving market shares). Is this data not available to you? Same issue with europe and Netherlands