Friday, September 27, 2019

Europe August 2019

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 Europe

Tesla Model 3 shines in off-season month

The European passenger plug-in market registered some 35,000 registrations in August (+15%), with BEVs continuing to grow at a fast pace (69%), while PHEVs are still suffering from the WLTP blues (-29% YoY), failing to post one single growth month since last September, when the new WLTP emission rules started.

This meant that all-electricswere responsible for 67% of all plugin sales last month (66% YTD), with the BEV share grew to 2.2%, while adding PHEVs to the tally, the share climbs to 3.3%, pulling the 2019 PEV share to 3.0% (2.0% for BEVs alone), above the 2.5% result of 2018.

The (not so) big news in August was that the Tesla Model 3 pulled of its best off-peak performance yet (5,286 deliveries), allowing it to win the August Best Seller title, and equaling the Renault Zoe in the number of wins this year (4).

With both models winning all the trophies in 2019, we could say that the Tesla Model 3 and the Renault Zoe are the two major players in Europe, with the first dominating the more expensive end of the market, while the latter takes care of sweeping the lower end of it.

With the Model 3 finally delivering the SR+ versions and the Zoe expected to double the output with the upcoming restyling, do not expect the current status quo to change much soon, as we need to wait until the VW ID.3 starts to deliver in large volumes, to see these two being challenged.

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

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#1 Tesla Model 3– The poster child for electro mobility had its best off-peak month so far, with 5,286 deliveries, mostly thanks to the UK, that had its first volume month, with over 2,000 deliveries, and with the sports sedan still benefitting from backlog-customers in important markets getting their much awaited SR+ units, expect another (record?) peak in September. By the look of it, we should only know the organic demandof the Model 3 in Europe on Q4 2019, if not already in 2020. But back at August, looking at individual markets, besides the aforementioned UK peak, the midsize model was mainly delivered in the Netherlands (1,180 units!), and Norway (649).

Resultado de imagem para white Renault Zoe.
#2 Renault Zoe– The 2,925 deliveriesof August allowed it to continue growing (+30%), regarding last year, an amazing feat for a model that is supposed to be in sunset-mode, waiting for the much improved “new” Zoe. As for individual market performances, the French hatchback continues as popular as ever in its domestic market (979 units), and in Germany (777 units), with Norway (235), among others, helping along to the Renault nameplate success.

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#3 BMW i3– The German hatchback was up 58% in August, to 2,666 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales, following the EV bubble growth. But, looking at individual countries, we start to see that the Bimmeris starting to rely too much on its domestic market, Germany (999 unit, new record), with the following markets, Norway (394) and the Netherlands (247), at a sizeable distance. A warning sign?

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#4 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV– The stainless steelJapanese SUV seems unfazed by the passing of time and the arrival of new models, being the only PHEV able to follow the pace of the Best Selling BEVs, with the Mitsubishi model scoring 2,500 registrationsin August (up 137%!), with its primary markets in August being France (635 units) and Germany (560). The success of this PHEV in the current BEV-friendly environment is remarkable, but in the long run, one wonders how long the Outlander PHEV will resist to the BEV wave (possible answer: until 2021, when the Tesla Model Y and VW ID Crozz finally land). With no direct BEV competitor in the (relatively) affordable-family-friendly-workhorselanding soon, the Mitsubishi model should still pick up a lot of sales this year without major worries.

Resultado de imagem para white VW e-Golf
#5 Volkswagen e-Golf– The evergreen German model model hit 2,160units last month, allowing it to grow 33%, an impressive result for a model that was supposed to be in sunset-mode…I guess the name Golf, and what it implies, is enough for many to choose over newer and more competitive models. But back at August performances, the Volkswagen EV main markets were Norway (1,083 deliveries, its best result in 2 years), Germany (380), and the Netherlands (161).

 Resultado de imagem para audi e-tron germany 

Looking at the 2019 ranking, if the podium positions remain stable, below it, the BMW i3 recovered the 4th spot, surpassing a Nissan Leaf that doesn’t seem to get its mojo back, no matter how hard they try, last month the Japanese hatchback was down 30%, making it its 6thconsecutive sales drop. The alarms should be sounding loud at the Nissan Europe HQ… 

But it wasn’t the only BMW on the rise, as the 530e was up one position, to #10, while the 225xe Active Tourer also climbed one spot, to #12. Not bad for an MPV…

The Audi e-Tron was up another position, to #8, thanks to 1,292 units, making it 7 BEVs in the Top 8 positions. I guess it shows what people want, right?... 

On the second half of the table, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric climbed to #16, and we have a new face in the Top 20, with the Mercedes E300e/de twins showing up in #19, signaling the return of a three-pointed-starmodel to the Top 20, after the 18thposition of the Mercedes GLC350e in 2018. 

Outside the Top 20, we should notice the Tesla Model X climbing to #21, just 336 units below the #20 Range Rover Sport PHEV, thanks to 617 deliveries. Regarding the flagship Tesla, the #18 Model S, it delivered 630 units its best off-peak month this year.
In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (21%, up 4%) is the leader, while last year winner BMW (14%, up 1%) remains in the runner-up spot, ahead of Renault (10%), that needs more models (Twingo EV, Captur PHEV, Megane PHEV, Scenic PHEV…) in its lineup to expand sales, while Hyundai is below the podium, with 8% share.


  1. Tesla Model 3 sales in August Europe-wise are nothing impressive since they were heavily skewed to UK, Netherlands and Norway (top3 markets).
    Lord knows what numbers got France, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria, Italy and a few others since UK certainly got nearer 2500 registrations, it's currently the only "hot market" due to the amount of backorders.

    written by Looney Tunes

    1. So the fact that deliveries were particularly strong in some markets makes the overall win unimpressive... Impeccable logic, as always.

      (Well, except the same is true for all the other top models...)

  2. Big fan of the blog, regular visitor and reader! In your summation, it looks as if you have missed off the Tesla Model 3 sales. When i sum all of the numbers in the August column, i get 40,564. The difference between your total of 35,278 and 40,564 is the 5,286 from Tesla.

  3. You are right, the formula of "Others" wasn't counting the Model 3 row.

    1. Now the table has the right formulas.

    2. ...but the opening paragraph still mentions July and 35000 sales, instead of August and 40000? :)

      As to Nissan, I'm not sure they are trying that hard. There seems to be a strong correlation between Leaf's lost mojo, and Carlos Ghosn's removal. Strong chance that the substitute leadership may not be as keen on EVs as he was. Just look at the other Japanese automakers :(

  4. With September and December high sales of Tesla (last months of a quater) and with traditionally strongest last quarter of the year, I still expect that my forecast of 3,5% PEV sales for 2019 and 5% at least (considering all new models, especially VW ID3) for 2020 will come true. That would mean that mean that 50% PEV sales in Europe in 2025 is becoming quite realistic.

  5. Any numbers for Canada in July/August?

    I really appreciate the work you're putting into this. Nice job.

  6. Josè, you write again 'in July (+15%)' although it is about August

  7. Highlights
    At 5.286 Tesla Model-3 sold 2.361 units more than #2 Renault Zoe.
    Top-3 in Aug belongs to BEVs
    12 in Top-20 in Aug belongs to BEVs
    Nice to see BEVs +69% while PHEVs had -29% growth.
    Europes 35.278 sales is very encouraging in the month when US & China sales suffered.
    Conclusion: Higher battery range leads to more sales of pure BEVs.
    While battery prices at just $176 / KWh at the end of 2018-12 means more high range BEVs are possible, but the automakers are not willing to sell.
    Even in its 7th year if BMW i3 sells so well, you can get it.

    Nissan suffered because of management chaos and their hesitation to sell BEVs.
    All that talk of launching a BEV SUV is just fake.

    1. Well, Nissan will introduce additional BEV models *eventually* -- though by that time, their early lead will be entirely gone. From what I gather, their new dedicated BEV platform isn't planned before 2021 or even 2022 -- by that time, most other major makers will have introduced competitive models based on such platforms.

      The Renault-Nissan alliance being in shambles certainly doesn't help, considering that the new platform is supposed to be a joint development...

  8. It's ridiculous that the rather outdated Ioniq is now catching up with the brand-new much superior Niro... This illustrates how limited supply (determined by quotas rather than customer interest) skews the sales figures.

  9. Nothing against a beautiful conspiracy theory, but probably Hyundai has simply taken care of the battery delivery too late or too little. On the other hand, the e-Golf is doing well for VW, which apparently get the batteries in large quantities without any problems.

    1. There is no conspiracy. Hyundai/Kia have openly stated that their EVs aren't profitable yet; and won't be for a couple more years. (Presumably until they introduce their new dedicated BEV platform? Same with GM etc.)

      Of course it's easy to say, "we can't sell more because we can't get more batteries" -- but *why* don't they have enough batteries? Simple: they didn't order enough in time: so the suppliers haven't built out more capacity. It's really all Hyundai/Kia's fault.

      The limited allocations to specific markets are just an obvious consequence of these circumstances.

      (And for what it's worth, the e-Golf was in the exact same position for a long time... If that's no longer the case, it's simply because they announced a *much* better replacement coming soonish.)