Monday, December 17, 2018

Canada November 2018

Tesla Model 3 leads the way

November registered some 3.000 plugins in Canada, up 53% YoY, with the PEV share reaching 2% last month, with the 2018 share stable at 2.2%.

Despite not reaching the same outlandish scores that it gets South of the border, the Model 3 is leading the way in Canada, with November being its third month of consecutive Best Selling wins, allowing it to lead the YTD ranking by a sizeable margin, with over 6.000 units, shattering the previous yearly record (4.313 Chevy Volt, in 2017), and preparing itself to give Tesla the second Models trophy, after the first having been won in 2015 by the Model S. 

But proof that not only Tesla, but the market as a whole is expanding, is the fact that the #2 Nissan Leaf and the #3 Mitsu Outlander PHEV have also broken last year yearly record, with the #4 Volt also on track to beat its own personal best.

The ranking remained stable this month, with only two changes, the Tesla Model S climbed one spot to #12, while the Smart Fortwo ED was also up one position, to #19.  

Below the Top 20, the Jaguar i-Pace had its first full deliveries month, with 20 units, and should be a familiar face in the 2019 Top 20.

Regarding the manufacturers podium, Tesla (22%) is head and shoulders above the competition, while the 2017 winner Chevrolet (16%) is now relegated to Second Place, with Nissan (13%) and Mitsubishi (12%) running for Third Place.


  1. Your model 3 numbers are interesting. In September you had Model 3 YTD at 4325 and then at the end of November you had it up to 6271. If you minus the 600 for November this means that in October 1346 units were registered? So Tesla deliveries unit to Canada at the beginning of the quarter which is opposite of what they do in other markets even in the US?

    I also notice that that had 2785 Model 3s registered in Q2 and 2070 registered in Q3. The trend points to Q4 being in low 1000s yet you have already have almost 1950 units registered for the first 2 months of the quarter. Do you expect to see another 2785 quarter or do you expect for December to be a dead month for Tesla with only 100-200 units registered?

    1. I believe it has to do with the end of the $7.5k credit, as Tesla could be starving Canada, in order to deliver as much Model 3/S/X in the US as it can, so i believe it is possible that December could be a low month for Tesla in Canada.

    2. Jose,

      That's absolutely correct.

      Tesla will obviously try to maximize the number of EV deliveries in the US in December 2018, due to the end of the $7,500.- Federal Tax Rebate.

      The number of Tesla EV deliveries in the US in December 2018 will be more than 30,000 but less than 40,000.


    3. Khushi,

      Let's say Tesla maintain a avg weekly build rate of 43000 Model 3. This would be 223,600 a year. Divide this by 12 and this gives an average monthly run rate of 18,633. Tesla had about 8000 in transit Model 3s coming into Q4, delivered around 39,000 Model 3s so far for the quarter, thus leaving about 6300 model 3s in inventory. There is no way Tesla could deliver more than 25,000 Model 3s in December but looking at how Tesla is pretty much having a fire sale to move Model 3s this month, I wouldn't be surprised if December Model 3 number is between 15,000 and 20,000. Making Q4 Model 3s deliveries just ever so slightly more than Q3 with about 5K-10K model 3s left in inventory going into Q1 2019.

  2. Where are the YTD numbers for the Volvo PHEV's? Something is missing here from the data...

    1. This is a Top 20, Volvo's haven't made it into the 20 Best sellers.