Wednesday, December 19, 2018

Germany November 2018

Resultado de imagem para Renault zoe vs VW e-Golf vs bmw i3

Renault Zoe and VW e-Golf run for #1

After a positive October, the German PEV passenger car market slipped again in November, down 2% to 6,266 registrations, with a seismic change happening in the fuels mix, with BEVs jumping (+41% YoY), while PHEVs continue sinking (-39%), with full electrics outselling plugin hybrids (68% share for BEVs in November), frankly above the 2018 share (51% each).

Because the mainstream market is dropping even faster (-10%) than plugins, the PEV Share climbed to 2.3% in November
, with BEVs alone hitting 1.6%, while YTD, the total PEV share remained stable at 1.9%.

Looking at November Best Sellers, you can see the good moment of all-electric models, with the Renault Zoe breaking the previous all-time record for a single model (980 units, in Oct.'15, by the Kia Soul EV), with 1,047 units.

The VW e-Golf was Second, thanks to a best ever result of 858 deliveries, it seems VW opened the gates for BEV production, as the little e-Up! registered 126 units, the nameplate best result since March. 

But the surprise of the month was the Nissan Leaf reaching the Fifth Spot, that with 366 deliveries, had its best result since March '15. Will we see it here more often? I bet we will...

Renault Zoe
VW e-Golf
BMW 225xe A. Tourer
BMW i3
Nissan Leaf

The German PEV market is known for close races and its changes and surprises, and November was no exception, first of all, the Renault Zoe and VW e-Golf became the only two candidates for the 2018 Best Seller award, as both stepped up the pace last month.

It will be a close race for the leadership, interestingly, if the e-Golf wins the 2018 trophy, it would be a first for Volkswagen, as so far the best results it had was two Third Places, one in 2014, with the VW e-Up!, and the second in 2015, with the VW Golf GTE.   

The last place of the podium also has an interesting race, with two BMW's (i3 and 225xe AT) separated by less than 100 units, 77 to be more precise.

Below the top positions, there were some interesting changes, the Nissan Leaf jumped two positions, to #8, making 7 BEVs in the Top 8 spots, while the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV also went up two spots, to #11, thanks to 386 units, the nameplate best result in its 5 year career. 

The BMW 530e climbed to #14, and with the now discontinued Mercedes E350e only 90 units ahead, the BMW PHEV is now the favorite to end the year as the Best Selling Luxury plugin.

Finally, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric rose to #15, thanks to 227 registrations, underlining the good moment that pure electrics are experiencing.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the 220 registrations of the Audi e-Tron, no doubt demostration units, but a large amount nevertheless, especially considering that full deliveries should start only in February. Will the Big Audi be the 2019 Luxury PEV Best Seller?

Uncoincidentally, the Tesla Model X deliveries are down 29% YoY, while the Model S is faring even worse, with a sharp 60% drop, although in this last case, this has more to do with the Model 3 long shadow, than any (read, Porsche Taycan) other upcoming model. 

In the brands ranking, BMW (18%, down 1%) is in the leadership, ahead of Volkswagen (16%, down 1%) while the #3 Smart (10%, down 1%) is in the last place of the podium, with Renault (9%, up 1%) still trying to reach the Bronze medal.


  1. Hey Jose, I do not think the drop we are seeing in the Model S in Europe has to do with the Model 3 seeing that both models are dropping in most countries in Europe not just the Model S. I will continue to stick with my views that the Model 3 is not going to do as well as people think it will in most of European countries. Look at Germany, so far only 62,000 EVs have been registered there and as you know the top 7 out of 8 spots are cheap BEVs. The model 3 being 60,000 € base price makes me think we might see around 2000 sold in Germany maybe 2500. I think after we have 2 full quarters worth of Model 3 deliveries we will get a much better picture of how it does in 2019 in Europe.

    1. Maybe i haven't been completely clear, it is clear that both Teslas are going down, but the explanation for the drop difference between both models (-29% for the X and -60% for the S) is that the Model S is suffering from internal competition (Model 3), while the Model X isn't (yet).

      Regarding the Model 3 performance in Europe, i honestly i have no idea how it will go, because there are good arguments for and against, like the ones you have mentioned.

      I guess we will have to wait for the first 6 months of deliveries to see how things will be by then.

    2. Could part of the reason of the drop in Germany just be allocation?

      In the US the federal tax credit is lost end of year. In the Netherlands there is also a sharp incentive drop for cars over €50k.

      I suspect more production is allocated to these markets in 2018 to satisfy peak demand.

    3. Could it be that Model S & X are down because Tesla is prioritizing the US market before the expiration of the $7,500 tax credit?

      Ferdinand Dudenhöffer, a German Auto Industry Expert, predicts that Tesla will dominate German EV Sales in 2019 and expects them to sell 20,000 EVs in Germany alone. By 2021 he expects VW to take the crown back from Tesla. The next year will be exciting for EV sales in Europe, that's for sure! I personally expect that Tesla will blow away the competition just like it did in the US.

      Here is the link, if you read German.

    4. It could be also an allocation issue.

      Let's wait for the next quarter and see how things go.

  2. Maarten VinkhuyzenDecember 19, 2018

    I wonder about the production volumes of the Renault Zoë. With January and July below 2k, March above 4k and now 5.370 deliveries.
    The waiting lists were a few months.

    Was this erratic production caused by low priority at the factory, or problems in battery (or other parts) supply? Have your sources made any comments about this?

    1. They now have more batteries available from LG Chem, thanks to the volume ramp up of their European operations, which is allowing them to (finally) end the waiting lists, so in a couple of months we should know the real level of demand for the Zoe.

      Now, what i really want Renault to do, now that they have enough batteries, is to launch the ZE version of the Twingo, in my opinion, this generation Twingo is the perfect fit for an EV version.

      How about a 24kWh Twingo for 18-20k euro?

    2. Maarten VinkhuyzenDecember 19, 2018

      This generation Twingo was designed as BEV, but gor only temporarily a ICE to wait for more favorable battery prices.

      But I think it a mistake to think about "city-cars" as a design criterium. Nobody buys a limited functionality car.
      City cars exist in marketing and use-cases, not in the showroom.

      Make it a 32kWh and 40kWh Twingo and look at the sales figures. (Retail prices should reflect the real difference in battery prices, not some margin inflating premium).

      My guess is the 32kWh offering will disappear after one or two years. Not enough demand.

      BTW, I like the Twingo, but I think 2022 is the year for the Twingo ZE.

      What Renault needs right now is the Grand Scenic ZE, Talisman ZE, Espace ZE, Kadjar ZE, Koleos ZE.

      The bigger, more expensive the car, the smaller the premium for the electric drivetrain over the ice drivetrain.

      I understand that it is hard to touch your most profitable models, but those models are also the most vulnerable and least risky to electrify.

    3. Maarten,

      What would be the estimated price of such a Renault Twingo ZE with a 40 kWh battery pack?


    4. A Grand Scenic would be awesome, so many people have complained that there's no electric seven seaters in Europe...

  3. Jose,

    The government in Germany is going to introduce a new incentive to accelerate the demand for Plug-In vehicles in Germany. This new incentive will be only available for employees that get a new company car. Normally all employees have to add 1% of the catalog price of their company car to their taxable income. The new incentive will be that employees will have to add only 0.5% of the catalog price of their company car to their taxable income if they will choose a PHEV or a BEV as their new company car. This new incentive has been announced for a period of three years (2019, 2020, 2021).

    This will probably result in a substantial increase in registrations of PHEV's and BEV's in Germany in 2019, 2020 and 2021.


    1. that's a meager incentive. So if you get a 50K company car you must add 500 to taxable income for an ICE and only 250 for an EV. So you save taxes on 250 by going EV. at 40% rate that's only 100. Am I missing something here?

    2. @ anonymous

      The rate is 0.5% PER MONTH.

      Sorry for not mentioning that in my previous post.


  4. I know it is a common method to compare with the previous year but nonetheless when I read "After a positive October... " November has actually 872 EV more than Oktober and the total figure is higher as well, so it's a positive trend and even a new record for EV

  5. Jose,

    Regarding China November 2018.

    The Nissan Sylphy is one of the best selling car models in China. About 55,000 units of the Nissan Sylphy were sold in China in November 2018. And 2,400 of the were the EV version of the Nissan Sylphy.


    1. Thanks, the China post will be online in a few hours ;-)

  6. Can those rich Germans buy only 81 Model-S. Or is it because the German government gives subsidies to other EVs and not the Tesla.
    Either way, the Germans are so much nationalistic that they don't want to buy American cars.

    And the Japanese are even more nationalistic as only 6% of their vehicles are imported.

  7. Remember that Europe will receive 3.000 Model 3s per week starting from February, which is 12.000/month. I think 1.500,maybe 2.000 of them could easily go to Germany alone.