Tesla Model 3 shatters records in hot market
The European passenger plug-in market registered a record 77,000 registrations in December (+88%!), with the Dutch market helping to pull the market up, and BEVs (+91% YoY) growing faster than PHEV (+81%), with the powertrain breakdown becoming even more BEV-friendly (68% BEVs / 32% PHEVs in December vs 64% / 36% in 2019).
The 64% share in 2019 is a massive 13% growth for pure electrics regarding last year, when they had just 51% share, and i remember at the time, we were celebrating the fact that for the first time in 4 years, BEVs were finally outselling plugin hybrids...Oh, how the times have changed!
Last month sales surge pulled the final 2019 count to a record 564,000 units, a 45% increase regarding 2018, while the brilliant performance in December allowed plugins to reach to 6.1% (4.1% for BEVs alone) last month, pulling the final 2019 PEV share to a record 3.6% (2.2% BEVs), above the 2.5% result of 2018.
Will the plugin share reach 6% this year? More? Please place your bets.
In December several models profited from the Netherlands sales rush to perform record results, and none did it more spectacularly than the Tesla Model 3, with the Californian shattering the all-time record in Europe (22,137 units in December), while the runner-up Renault Zoe also pulled a Year Best performance last month, meaning that the French hatchback has already ramped up the revised version, and should be preparing to reach new heights in 2020.
Another big winner from the Dutch sales fever was the Audi e-Tron, that reached 3rd in December, with a record 4,225 units, it seems the Big Audi has already surpassed its own production hell and is ready to find its demand limits soon, while the veteran VW e-Golf was 4th, with an amazing 2,998 units, its best result in 13 months, so with this kind of performances, the old geezer seems to be saying: “ID-who? Never heard of it!”
A final mention to the #6 BMW 330e, that registered 2,996 units, the model’s 4th(!) record month in row. With the Bavarian suffering the biggest bleed from the Model 3 black hole effect, BMW is going all in for the 330e patch, in order to cut the bleeding, at least until the i4 antidote is not deployed.
Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:
#1 Tesla Model 3– The poster child for electro mobility had a memorable month, by delivering 22,137 units in one month, a new monthly record for any single plugin in Europe, with the Model 3 benefiting from the Dutch EV year end rush, by scoring 12,053 units in the Netherlands, but deliveries in the UK also did a big contribution, with some 2,700, while there were three other markets with four-digit performances (1,251 units in Norway, 1,188 in Switzerland and 1,250 in France), with several other markets also hitting sizeable three-digit scores. With part of China’s Model 3 demand now being locally made, it is expected that Tesla will find more room to satisfy its domestic market, as well as Europe, so we should start to know the organic demand of the Model 3 on this side of the pond this year, in what could be the Model 3’s peak year here, as in 2021 a certain Model Y will create its own black hole effect...
#2 Renault Zoe– The 4,700 deliveries of December meant falling deliveries (-14%), but it was still the French hatchback best result in 2019, meaning that the production ramp up of the revised version is mostly done, and now it is ready to start 2020 in on a full charge, something that will prove to be important further along the year, because while its most direct competitors (Peugeot 208 EV, Opel Corsa EV, VW ID.3...) will spend the beggining of the year trying not to screw the production ramp up, the Zoe will be delivering thousands of units across the continent from day 1. Back to December, France pulled the usual heavy lifting, with 2,097 units, but this time the Netherlands also had a four-digit score, with a record 1,020 units, with Germany (780 units) and Switzerland (385) being also major markets for the cheeky EV.
#3 Audi e-Tron – With the initial production problems now a thing of the past, the big Audi hit a record 4,225 units last month, winning its first monthly podium seat. And while most of them (3,054 units) went to the Netherlands (#BiK change), the fact is that e-Tron has good growth prospects for 2020, thanks to the new (and cheaper) 71 kWh battery version and the launch of the interesting Sportback version, that adds a bit of flair to the dull exterior design of the regular e-Tron. But it wasn’t just the Netherlands pulling the e-Tron’s (very) heavy weight, as Norway (282 units), Switzerland (245) and Germany (182) also helped the Audi EV to reach the medals.
#4 Volkswagen e-Golf– The evergreen German model hit 2,998 units last month, up 44%(!) YoY, being its best performance in the last 13 months, which is an amazing result for a model that is supposed to be in sunset-mode for months now and has its sucessor now starting to roll of the lines in the Zwickau factory. It seems VW is going all in into plugins, milking everything it can from its current best selling electric model. Regarding the December performances, the Volkswagen EV main markets were Germany (764), Netherlands (691), Norway (525) and Switzerland (348). By the way, have you noticed that Switzerland features among the major markets of all top 4 EV’s? Will Switzerland be the next Norway?
#5 BMW i3– The German hatchback was up 21% in December, to 2,997 units, with the BMW pocket rocket benefitting from its unique formula (At least until the Mini Cooper EV and the Honda e land, it is the only Premium City EV in town) to continue expanding its sales (possibly making it a future classic), following the EV bubble growth. Looking at individual countries, Germany (630 units) and the Netherlands (768), were its largest markets, with the following being the UK (320) and France (485).
Looking at the 2019 ranking, the Model 3 can say like Julius Ceaser: “Veni, Vidi, Vici”, or “I came, I saw, I conquered”, after giving a couple of months of advance to the competition in the beggining of the year, the Californian basically kicked everyone’s butts on its way to the top, leading the table since last March, becoming the first Tesla to win Europe’s Best Seller award, while being also the first time since 2010(!) that a Tesla reaches the podium...Disruption, anyone?
The two times winner (2016 & ’17) Renault Zoe won another Silver Medal last year, its 4th so far (2013, ’15, ’18 and ’19), it is the longest standing model in Europe’s podium, having always been there since 2013, with the French hatchback securing the #2 spot right in March, while the 3rd place went to the two times winner (2014 & ’15) Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that collected also its usual Best Selling SUV and PHEV titles (it has been with it ever since since it landed, back in 2013...), although the BMW 330e has beaten it in the last two months of the year...
Will we finally see some competition in the plugin hybrid field in 2020?
In December, there were a few last minute changes, the most important being the Audi e-Tron going up to #8, making it 7 BEVs in the Top 8...Revealing, isn’t it?
Below the front runners, the Mercedes E300e/de twins were up two places, to #14, while the new BMW 330e jumped 3 spots, to #17.
A mention to the #16 Kia Niro PHEV, that registered just 301 units, its worst performance in over 2 years, being the clearest example of the “only deliver units in 2020” order made by Kia Europe.
Outside the Top 20, December brought a number of brilliant results, like the #21 Volvo XC90 PHEV scoring 1,312 units, the Swedish best result in 4 years, the new BMW X5 PHEV scored 1,453 units, its second record performance in a row, while the Audi Q5 PHEV continued its steady rise, having registered 847 units last month.
But the Surprise of the Month were the 1,336 units of SAIC’s MG ZS EV, by far the best result of any Chinese plugin in Europe.
Looking at some sub-categories, the Renault Zoe kept its B-Segment trophy, same as the Nissan Leaf in the C-segment, despite dropping from #1 in 2018 to #4 now, the midsize car category went to the Tesla Model 3 (and it should stay with it in the foreseeable future), while in the Luxury category, the #8 Audi e-Tron succeeded to last year winner Tesla Model X (#9 last year) in the SUV category, while the BMW 530e won the Luxury car category, despite dropping from #8 in 2018 to the current #11, because last year winner, the Tesla Model S, fell 14 positions, from #6 last year, to #20 in 2019...
Finally, the MPV category was once again won by the BMW 225xe A. Tourer, while in the small crossover race, there was a leadership change, with the Mini Countryman PHEV losing the title to the Hyundai Kona EV.
In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (20%) won the Best Seller trophy, being not only its first win in Europe, but also its first podium appearance since 2010...
The three times winner (2016, ’17 & ’18) BMW this time had to conform with the runner-up spot, with 13% share, ahead of #3 Renault (8%, down 1%), with the French brand returning to the podium, despite suffering from a short lineup, with Hyundai (7%) ending in 4th.
Looking into 2020, the Tesla Model 3 should build on its current success, possibly reaching some 120,000 units, while below it, the Renault should start the year in a firm 2nd spot, possibly reaching some 80,000 units by the end of the year, and Volkswagen will try to ramp up production of its ID.3 as fast as it can, so it can collect this year’s Bronze medal, with around 60,000-70,000 units.
But the volume of growth will come not from the Best Sellers, but from several new players said to land this year, that individually shouldn’t go much over 40,000 units, but all counted together will make the bulk of the impressive growth that the European plugin market should witness this year.
This is particularly visible in the middle-to-lower end of the market (DS3 Crossback EV, Fiat 500e, Honda e, Kia Soul EV, Mini Cooper EV, Opel Corsa EV, Opel Mokka X EV, Peugeot 208 EV, Peugeot 2008 EV, Renault Twizy EV...), that should double or triple sales, based on new model launches, while on the Premium side of the market, it will be more a case of evolution than revolution, with models adding (a bit) more volume to what it already exists, like the Lexus UX300e, Mercedes EQC (if they manage to get out of their own Production Hell), Porsche Taycan, Polestar 2 and Volvo XC40 EV, although in the case of the Porsche, it will be interesting to know if it can be a serious candidate to the trophy of Best Selling Luxury Car.
Having said all this, i expect the European EV market to reach close to one million units in 2020, which would be a great prelude to the following year, 2021, as it would mean that by then, firm two-digit shares would be possible, and that would be the point where
would break loose EVs would become the new normal, and we could order the
ICE coffin in Europe.
Europe woke up!ReplyDelete
E-Tron killed MX.ReplyDelete
In 2018 more than 12.600 Tesla X were delivered in Europe, this year there were only some 7.300 (José could help here to say how many exactly), so a cut of more than 40%, and Model S had a cut of 50% (8.800 in 2019 for 16.600 in 2018).Delete
Sure, competition from I-Pace and E-Tron gad surely hurt Model X sales, but in fact, we have to remember that Tesla ended to sale the Model X 75 and the Model S 75 at the very beginning of 2019, and these constituted some 70% of these Model S and X sales in Europe in 2018, so the result was not so bad as it could have been!
So, with the intent of Tesla to differentiate the Model 3 offerting from its holders, Tesla did more in hurting sales of the S and the X than competitors. I think it was an error from Tesla to did so.
Can we please stop propagating this "Tesla Killer" bullshit? First of all, the Model X isn't dead, despite lower sales. And more importantly, almost all reasons for the lower sales have nothing to do with e-tron (or other inferior competitors): tax change in the Netherlands; removal of the most affordable variant (which was the vast majority of sales especially in Norway); Osborne effect from major changes expected next year; and some in-house competition from Model 3 and especially upcoming Model Y.Delete
Certainly the fact that it's no longer the only game in town also did have some effect: but I doubt it's anything but minor. e-tron etc. are decent options for people who never considered a Tesla -- but I seriously doubt a significant number of people interested in a Tesla would decide to go with something else that is vastly inferior in almost every regard...
Who made Tesla remove the most affordable option?Tesla herself killed TX.Do you like it better?Delete
Indeed nobody made Tesla remove the most affordable option: it was a business decision they made on their own.Delete
I understand that people are unhappy about that decision (especially since they did it before introducing the more affordable Model Y) -- but in order to change the world, Tesla does have to be a viable business; and thus taking steps to improve their margins is a perfectly valid decision.
In short: I still don't like wording it like that -- but this statement is at least more valid than the previous one...
"was a business decision" give the market to competitors?(I dont think that affordable models were much less cost-effective)Delete
Well, yes, sometimes it's actually a good business decision to abandon unprofitable segments...Delete
But in this case, again, I doubt much sales went to other EVs (I'm reluctant to call them competitors...) -- or to combustion cars, for that matter. The majority probably simply went to other Tesla models, present or future. Which is why it's likely not a net loss for Tesla or its mission: concentrating on more impactful models probably more than makes up for minor losses in this particular niche.
As for what you think about cost effectiveness: are you seriously suggesting you have a better understanding of Tesla's cost structure than their management?...
It is not necessary to bang your head against the wall to find out what will painfuiy."you have a better understanding" I can ask abot any of your comments.Delete
Delays EQC,E-TRON,ID3,infaled prices.These are links of one chain.Delete
Strange.why do not they talk about delays PHEV models?Delete
Or soft hybrids.Delete
We don't see PHEV delays for the same reason established car makers tend to like PHEVs so much: these are easy to make for them. They aren't fundamentally different from their combustion models -- just with a smallish battery and underpowered electric motor thrown in... They aren't experiencing any of the difficulties facing production of BEVs.Delete
I am talking:about the same thing they sabotage BEVs at the expense of PHEV.Delete
I wont put a cent that the M3 will repeast its success in terms of quantity(without price reduction).ReplyDelete
Considering M3 wasn't available for the whole year in many markets, I expect it to still go up. The UK didn't see deliveries for the first half of the year, as just one example.Delete
Now add to that the tens of thousands of cars that would have been going to China that can now be handled by GF3...
I think it shouldn't be hard at all to match those numbers this year.
Yes,I agree UK will be the market n1 for T3.Besides the UK there are still examples?Delete
about 50k car niche is limited.Delete
Thanks. And I hope you also let me know Georgia (in Caucasus) and Ukraine.ReplyDelete
Hey. I'm from Ukraine and have some numbersDelete
Total new registrations in 2019 - 7.7 thousand (39% growth against 2018). Most of them are second registrations and Nissan Leaf is still Number 1
You can find more info here https://biz.liga.net/all/avto/novosti/rynok-elektromobiley-v-ukraine-vyros-na-40
I think the PEV-share could reach 7% this year.ReplyDelete
Yes,I agree it will be so,but I would like a faster adoption BEVs.Countries,producers,consumers should strive for this.Oddly enough, I see that countries do it very well,but the consumer and the producer are bad.Delete
With the current trajectory, combustion car sales will be all but dead before the end of the decade. It could accelerate further once more people realise that buying new combustion cars is pointless, and start delaying purchases while they wait for more EVs to become available...Delete
Of course we'd like to happen it even faster: but we need to understand that even if all investments in combustion cars were immediately stopped -- which is the ideal case -- it still would take years to design more EVs, to ramp production capacity, and to lower costs to a point where most people are willing to buy them...
Still, it's very encouraging to think that most of us will see the day when cars spewing poisonous fumes will be a thing of the past :-)
It aii depends on the speed at which are accepted BEVs.:-)Delete
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7%? Anything below 12% would be disappointing. This is the year that they have to perform.Delete
@Mikael I'm pretty sure that's literally impossible... Unless combustion car sales drop by more than a third. Even ignoring all other factors, there simply isn't enough production capacity for EV sales to suddenly go up this much.Delete
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Sweeetest news. Like Newton effect, Raman effect, this is the Model-3 effect. European automakers saw Tesla threat and did their best to sell more vehicles.ReplyDelete
Europe bought more vehicles in December alone than what Japan bought in whole 2019.
Tesla sent a message to Japanese who lied that BEVs will fail and only FCEVs will succeed.
Tesla sent a message to Europeans who lied that BEVs will fail and only PHEVs will succeed.
BEVs capturing 64% market share in 2019 and 68% in 2019-12 is really great.
BEVs also took Top-5 last month despite aggressive push from MB selling plugins with both petrol & diesel engines.
Now the big question is whether VW ID will launch in 2020-summer as told by them. If so in what quantity.
Thats right,for many manufactures everything happens because of a lie.Delete
Toyota and VW-the main liars.Delete
Moreover,they are marketts leaders.Delete
PHEV technology is alive only for them:BMW,MB,Toyota.This is stuped(they are just trying to keep sales ICE).Their resistance is costing the planet.VW realized its mistake.Delete
Business that is built on a lie.Delete
Mr. M here. My Bet is:ReplyDelete
7% - 2020
12% - 2021
15% - 2022
18% - 2023
25% - 2024
I does not like this graph.Delete
Why do you expect such a slowdown after 2021? I actually think that's when things will be getting really interesting, more likely resulting in further acceleration rather than slowdown...Delete
In 2020 we will see a lot more models, most with an acceptable range and DC charging for competitive prices. At least very competitive compared to the old guard of mid-sized EV.ReplyDelete
The industry is hard trying to stay below the 95g/km CO2.
They will launch a number of advertising campaigns to increase sales of their new EV.
I would be surprised with less than 1,000,000 EV sales. I admit that I hope for 1,000,000 BEV sales.
Also the European EV marketshare above the Chinese marketshare.
I'm also hoping for something in the vicinity of 1,000,000 PEVs -- though I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't quite hit that mark.Delete
1,000,000 BEVs alone unfortunately doesn't seem realistic at all. Even if demand turns out stronger than expected, I just don't see where all these cars would suddenly be coming from...
Also, while there are certainly some very interesting new models coming this year, there is also a whole bunch of models that are so-so at best, and thus not likely to sell very much, going by historic figures for comparable EVs -- unless they start slashing prices like crazy...
Europe overtaking China seems unlikely. Even if Europe manages to double market share, it would additionally require China to see hardly any growth at all...Delete
Note that even after the step-downs, China has stronger incentives than most of Europe -- and also a lot more affordable models to chose from...
In 2012, Tesla launched Model-S with 3 battery options that catered to needs of different customers:ReplyDelete
85 KWh: 425 km/265 miles
60 KWh: 333 km/208 miles
40 KWh: 222 km/139 miles
But now they have only 1 battery range : 100 KWh for 597 km/373 miles.
Luckily they are planning to launch 75 KWh standard range which will have 450 km/280 mile range.
Same holds true for Model-X which will go 413 km/258 miles.
Model-S/X are really important models and Tesla cannot afford to let them down with just 1 range. Freedom to choose battery size and cost is important for customers.
I guess they have much lesser bells and whistles and costs less.
Lets hope these 2 models give a boost to Tesla Model-S/X sales once again.
It's very very unlikely that Tesla decides suddenly to re-introduce a 75 kWh variant... Ever since they originally dropped that one, the assumption has been that they will introduce a new one with larger capacity, while 100 kWh (or some other capacity somewhere in-between) will become the new base variant. That's still the go-to assumption (larger batteries coming have been confirmed by Elon) -- although it's taking much longer than originally anticipated...Delete
Tesla website says the Model-S has 28 cu ft cargo capacity,ReplyDelete
but fueleconomy.gov says only 26 cu ft. Its possible that the website did not update the latest size and is showing the old value.
Did Tesla do something to increase the cargo capacity by using lesser space for battery.
If Tesla did something redesign, this needs to be communicated to everyone and this should be appreciated.
Maybe fueleconomy.gov is not counting frunk space? Or maybe some other difference in methodology. Definitely shouldn't read to much into it.Delete
(FWIW, Tesla recently introduced new thinner front seats that increase rear legroom -- but I haven't heard anything about changes in rear seats, that could hypothetically increase cargo capacity...)
Look at this fantastic Aiways U5 CUV to be launched in EU soon with an expected 1st year sales target of 2,000 units, and 50,000 in 2021. But in China should sell a lot more this year itself.ReplyDelete
I hope this will make VW consider selling VW ID seriously.
That title is misleading: while Aiways might be the first originally Chinese brand, the MG ZS EV already available in Europe is also Chinese-owned and Chinese-made, despite the originally British brand.Delete
(Not entirely clear where the MG ZS is designed though, since supposedly they are still doing some sort of design work at the original British location?...)
Having said that, if the U5 is indeed sold for less then 30,000 Euro, as the article suggests (which I have serious doubts about...), it could be quite a disruptor.
For now though VW is certainly more concerned about meeting emission regulations than about some Chinese upstart possibly selling a handful of cars in Europe...
Mini Cooper Se in Norway.ReplyDelete
Peugeot 208 also.Delete
Ds3 Crossback also.Delete
Predicted registration targets fully failed: neither the Zoe reached 50.000 vehicles, neither the Leaf reached 40.000 vehicles and neither the Model 3 reached 100.000 vehicles. On the other hand, the Kona BEV and e-tron managed to climb within the Top10.ReplyDelete
From the published data, 2019 carmaker standings are:
1st Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 115160 vehicles
2nd Tesla with 104057 vehicles
3rd BMW Group with 86005 vehicles
4th Kia-Hyundai with 53381 vehicles
5th Volkswagen Group with 47193 vehicles
Whose predictions are these?...Delete
Zoe and Model 3 would be considered near misses, though -- only the Leaf is a major disappointment...
My forecast:T3-90k,id3-65,Zoe-65,Up-60(Mii,citigo),kona-45,niro-35,i3-35,leaf-35,etron-35,eqc-30,soul-30,ioniq-30,corsa-30,p208-35,mini se-30,p2008-20,ds3-15,TY-30,golf-20=735k+others BEVs 140k+330k PHEVs=1200000.Market share 8%.My dreams:)ReplyDelete
Interesting: adding up my own estimates model-by-model, I arrive at pretty similar numbers (~900,000 BEVs) -- though most of them are frankly pretty wild guesses... If we actually followed the announced ambitions of the various newcomers -- i.e. assuming there is plenty of demand even for the mediocre models, and no production delays -- we could theoretically end up way above that!Delete
Yes,900k this is an ideal case.Lets hope that it will be so.Delete
Italy!Will there be a review?ReplyDelete
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France!I could not imagine such!ReplyDelete
France:main market in the big minus,the market PEV in a big plus.SM-fantastic.ReplyDelete
Will there be a new record in Europe in January?Your rates.ReplyDelete
I am not sure.Delete