Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Markets Roundup June 2015

The (Pure) Electric Star


Many people have asked for a breakdown between plug-in hybrid and pure electric sales, here it is a small report regarding the most representative markets and their evolution since 2012.

2015 2014 2013 2012
Market BEV % PHEV % BEV % PHEV % BEV % PHEV % BEV % PHEV %
World 62 38 62 38 57 43 50 50
USA 63 37 55 45 49 51 27 73
Japan 63 37 53 47 55 45 53 47
France 84 16 94 6 95 5 94 6
Norway 79 21 90 10 94 6 93 7
Germany 55 45 75 25 85 15 86 14
Netherlands 17 83 23 77 15 85 22 78
China 61 39 72 28 90 10 89 11
UK 36 64 54 46 78 22 67 33
Italy 82 18 91 9 89 11 97 3
Canada 73 27 58 42 51 49 30 70
Switzerland 75 25 71 29 88 12 71 29
Sweden 53 47 35 65 48 52 45 55
Belgium 47 53 69 31 75 25 79 21
Denmark 97 3 99 1 99 1 97 3

It is easy to see that for the moment pure electric are resisting quite well to the announced take over from plug-in hybrids, in fact, the rise of Tesla has been a boon for BEV's, just compare the 2012 global numbers with the current ones.

Looking closer to some markets, it is curious to see that the US market and Canada went from Volt PHEV predominant to (Tesla) BEV prevalent.

The other way around ocurred in the UK and Belgium, in 2013 three out of four plug-ins were pure electrics, now PHEV's are the best sellers in these markets.

The PHEV champion continues to be the Netherlands, with plug-in hybrids steady between 75-85% Share, while Denmark is all for pure electrics, with PHEV's only able to grasp 1 to 3% share.

Trends in the G8 

China is continuing to score record performances (12.810 units in June, 0,46% EV share vs 0,25% last year), with new cars showing up almost every month, last month the Chinese EV Market was only 103 units away from setting a new all time global monthly sales record, by the way, for the first time that the asian giant surpassed the US in the YTD sales (54.665 for China vs 54.177 for the USA).

The French market is also growing, it is now firmly above the 1% barrier, while the UK and Germany continue their way up, both with double digit growth rates.

The two EV champs, Netherlands and Norway, also had positive months, with the EV Share (5,94 % and 23,22% respectively), keep on being the envy of everyone else.

The only laggards on this club are the USA (0,64% this year vs 0,73% in '14) and Japan, the asian market is plunging to values of 2012 and there doesn't seem to exist signs of hope in the short term, if Japan was the Third largest EV Market in 2014 (And #1 in 2010), now is just...Seventh.

If the japanese EV sales continue to fall, this G8 could lose a member and change the name again to G7.

Forecasts in the G8

Early this year, i made some forecasts regarding this year, let's see how they stack up against the results in the first half of the year:

USA - 150.000 units/year, Leaf #1; 

Given sales are at 54.000 and the second half of they year has always stronger sales, i think the numbers can end up a tiny bit higher than the 130K, the original number now seems too optimistic. Tesla is #1 for now, but with the manufacturer focusing on getting the Model X just right, the Model S might get a production slowdown, which might mean that the leadership could end up on Nissan Leaf's lap;

China - 120.000 units/year, Qin #1.
Year Two for this market, sales continue to go above expectations, the montlhy numbers are now consistently above the 10K area, with new players coming in, new record sales are expected, so i wouldn't be surprised if sales passed the 130K line by the end of the year. The Best Selling Plug-In in China this year is and will be the Qin, no doubt about it.
Japan - 32.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

The second semester is usually better in the Japanese EV market, but even so, with sales around 12K, it will be hard even to be close of this forecast, the japanese EV market is losing strength and there's no one in the short term capable of lifting it up. As for models, the Leaf is some 2.000 units above the Outlander, so it has a safe margin;

Norway - 25.000 units/year, Leaf #1.
What else can we say about this market? It just keeps on pushing bounderies, year after year, month after month. With 17K sales this year, the original forecast now looks small compared to it, better to update it to some 40K. As for models, big miss here, not only the Leaf if out of the leadership, but it's down to Third, surpassed by the VW e-Golf (Leader) and the Tesla Model S (Runner-up);

France - 19.000 units/year, Zoe #1;

Sales are at 12.000 units, but with the ever-increasing sales upwards trend in France, i believe that the forecast not only will be beaten by a long shot, but the 30K hallmark is possible. Zoe is #1, of course, nothing new here;

Netherlands - 19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

A welcome surprise, with sales at 12.000 units in the first half of the month, i think the 25K area can be achieved with relative ease. The Outlander PHEV was outclassed by the Golf GTE, and it looks the trend won't change in the second half of the year;

Germany - 20.000 units/year, German Car #1;

In this Year Two of the German Electric Car, sales continue to grow at a steady pace (10.000 units this year vs 6.000 in 2014) so the 20K shoud be achievable. A surprise in the models leadership, the Outlander PHEV is leading the pack, followed by three domestic models (VW Golf GTE, BMW i3 and Audi A3 e-Tron), each of them looking to dethrone the auslander;

UK - 20.000 units/year, Outlander PHEV #1.

Another Year Two, sales continue to grow, with numbers already in the 15K area, so i wouldn't be surprised if sales reached  some 30K by the end of the year. The Mitsu Outlander PHEV continues to be the Best Seller by a long shot, doubling sales of the #2 Nissan Leaf.

Global EV Share leaders 

1. Norway - 23,22% (14,49% a year ago)
2. Netherlands - 5,94% (4,58%)
    California - 2.8% (3.2%)
3. Hong Kong - 2,58% (0,46%)
4. Sweden - 2,16% (1,52%)
5. Iceland - 2,04% (2,71%)
6. Switzerland - 1,42% (0,75%)
7. Denmark - 1,24% (0,88%)
8. France - 1,19% (0,91%)
9. UK - 1,01% (0,56%)

Besides these, EV Shares are up in Germany (0.60% vs 0.44%), Belgium (0.73% vs 0.44%), as well as Ireland (0.47% vs 0,27%) and Portugal (0,35% vs 0,25%).

There are also big EV Share dips, besides the aforementioned case of Japan, Estonia is also down sharply, this year it has just 0,35% Share, when last year ended with 1,57%. Does anybody know the reason for this sales freeze in the baltic country?


  1. How can Denmark have that high share of BEV compere to PHEV? Does they have incentives that is only for BEVs or is it just that Danish people have higher interest in BEV then PHEV?

    1. Denmark has a (up to) 180% registration tax on new cars which makes their cars by far the most expensive in Europe. BEVs don't pay that registration tax.

      And since PHEVs are more expensive than the ICE version to start with it gets even more expensive with the 180% registration tax.

      e-Golf = 286 000 DKK
      an average ICE Golf = 320 000 DKK
      Golf GTE = 426 000 DKK

      Tesla S70 = 581 000 DKK
      Tesla S90D = 732 000 DKK
      Tesla P90D ludicrous with every option included = 1 114 000 DKK

      BMW 320d with no options = 552 000 DKK
      BMW 550i xDrive with no options = 1 455 000 DKK

      The question is rather why is anything but Teslas selling in the premium segment and why are total BEV sales so low with such massive incentive?

    2. The P90D and S70 just started sales, therefore they don't reflect the 2015 numbers up to now. But for sure those two models will improve sales figures in the future.

      The model S has already nearly 0.5% of the whole market share YTD 2015 and close to 40% marketshare YTD of all electric vehicles sold. Those are no bad numbers.

      I think the luxury market in denmark is relatively low, because of the high taxes? How much is number of the BMW 5 YTD for example? For instance Audi sells around 6000 cars/year (most of them probably A3, that are cheaper than the model s). The more expensive tesla will reach around 1000/year at this rate.This denmark newspaper (telegraph) suggest that a lot of people already switching to tesla.

      Link: http://cphpost.dk/news/business/luxury-car-owners-in-denmark-switching-to-electric-tesla.html

    3. Medium and high luxury class cars together with sports cars make less than 5% of the whole market in germany. The model S has caputured 0.5% of the whole market in denmark, therefore it might have covered already 10%+ of the high end market. Thats a lot.

  2. If you are going to put Hong Kong on the top market list then you should also put California.

    California has a 1,1% PHEV share and 1,7% BEV share for a total of 2,8% share for electrified vehicles.

    1. Okey, Hong Kong is not a own country put it's probably as close you can come as a thought of how different it's to rest of China. They have we're own economy, politics and more so California is not close the same thing. This site have since long have the EV sales for Hongkong separately and it have never have every state in USA separately so why would it take Callifonia separately?

  3. Link to statistics from California vehicle dealers association.


  4. Thanks for the Californian data, the numbers are interesting, particularly Tesla (3rd in its segment and not far from the Top 2), i have included California in the EV Share article and given the data, i could make a California ranking as a comparison with the regular US ranking, but as mentioned before, California can't be compared with Hong Kong, the asian territory is a special case within China, with its own tastes and trends, just like Macau, another small territory that probably has a automotive ranking mirroring more Hong Kong than mainland China.

    1. BEV market share is only one example of how California is unique from the rest of the USA in terms of taste and trends.

      2,8% for CA vs 0,43% for rest of the USA is significant.

      Another automotive example; CA is the only State in the United States with more than 1 publicly available hydrogen fueling station. California has 48.

  5. AnonymousJuly 29, 2015


    Electric vehicle news reports that 220 plug-in vehicles were sold in the fourth quarter of 2014 versus only 4 sold in the last quarter of 2013.

    We don't get very much EV news from Latvia, so this information may be of interest to you.

  6. Great global overview! Thank you for giving us detailed insights on the current situation and trends :). I always like to read your posts, EV break through is coming closer with each of them ;) (at least usually...)!

  7. Is there anything comparing BEV and PHEV market share in each country to date? Also including previous years market share?

    1. Please send me a private email (efeelblog@gmail.com) and i will answer your question.