Wednesday, December 28, 2016

World Top 10 November 2016

Image result for zotye cloud ev
Zotye Cloud EV - Best Seller in November

Models - Chinese Take Over, Chapter Two

The global EV market had its second best month ever in November, with some 79.000 units delivered, representing a 39% growth YoY, if the same growth rate happens in December,  a month from now we should be celebrating a 120.000 units record month, placing the 2016 final tally at some 780.000 units, 40% above 2015.

In the models ranking, the big news were once again the Chinese models grabbing the November Top Spots, starting with the Zotye Cloud EV, Best Seller in November with 5.024 units, with the Silver Medal going to the Geely Emgrand EV, with 3.799 units, while the remaining podium seat going also to another Chinese model, the BAIC EU260, with 3.769 units, thus making a 100% Chinese Podium, the first time this happens, but i believe it won't be the last.

But the take over didn't end there, there were three additional Chinese models (#5 Zotye E200, with 3.500 units, #7 Chery eQ, 3.233 units and #10 BYD e5, 2.113), in the November Top 10, making six(!) models from that country in the monthly Top 10. And BYD only contributed with one model...

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Tesla Model S has the Nissan Leaf within shooting range, so the last-month-of-the-quarter-peak should pull it to another Models title, like it did last year.

The recent poor performances of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV has allowed the Chevrolet Volt to close in and with the help of the expected December peak in the US market, the GM model should end the year in the Fourth Spot. 

The BMW i3 33-kWh-kick continues to be felt, with the German Hot Hatch delivering a record 2.875 units, securing its Sixth Place, while the BAIC E-Series EV suffered from production constraints (The EU260 has priority over it #LargerProfits) and delivered only 735 units, its worst result in almost two years, dropping one position to #9, to the benefit of the Renault Zoe, which recovered its Eighth Position.

In #10 we have a fresh face, with the BAIC EU260 replacing the Tesla Model X, but with the American Sports-Minivan-Crossover-Thing only 185 units away and the #12 BYD e6 some 400 units behind, a lot can still happen in December between the #8 to the #12 spots.

The rise of the Chinese manufacturers has significantly changed the BEV/PHEV breakdown, at this moment BEV's have a 63% take rate, well above the 37% of PHEV's, we have to go back five years to see such a big difference, so China's Wild Card into EV's is not only increasing the number of plug-ins on the road but also helping BEV's to overcome the PHEV technology.

1Nissan Leaf3.52946.80572
2Tesla Model S3.37543.34771
3BYD Tang1.57829.89558
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Chevrolet Volt
BMW i3
7BYD Qin1.11821.04734
8Renault Zoe1.48818.97037
9BAIC E-Series EV73518.587311
10BAIC EU2603.76918.496364

TOTAL 79.257

Manufacturers -  Zotye Surges 

Looking at November Best Selling manufacturers, three of the Top Four brands came from China (#1 Zotye, #2 BYD, #4 BAIC), with BMW being the only foreigner, in Third.

Zotye had a Tesla-like surge last month, registering 12.318 units, the second best result ever (Only Tesla did better, last September, with over 13k units) by any brand, possibly probably due to dealership registrations, anticipating the upcoming incentive changes in China, allowing it to jump to the Sixth Place in the YTD ranking.

As for BYD, with only 8.315 units, it had its worst result in seven months, which raises the question: Is this due to production constraints or are the new arrivals making a dent into the once all-mighty BYD?

As for the Bavarian automaker, the benefits from a strong (And extensive) lineup allowed it to reach a new all-time high, with 7.571 units, distancing itself from Nissan and securing the Third Spot for 2016. With ambitious goals for 2017 (100k sales), expect the German carmaker to continue being one of the leading OEMs next year. 

With Chevrolet selling at decent levels and its newest baby, the Bolt, arriving in December, expect the American brand to have a deliveries peak next month (Do i hear 4.000 units?), which should be enough to overcome Mitsubishi and reach #8.

As for Mitsubishi, whether its #8 or #9, 2016 will be remembered as its lowest place in the ranking, a sad place to be for a carmaker that has been pushing for EV's since 2009. That's what you get when you don't improve your lineup...  

With Zotye jumping to #6, someone had to leave the Top 10, and that one was Ford, now #11, some 3.000 units behind Renault, so unless Ford Goes Tesla in December and surprises us all (Highly unlikely), the French brand has the #10 secured in 2016.

To have a better idea of how fast Chinese brands are growing in the EV industry, in 2013 they had delivered some 12.000 units, which made them have 6% of the total EV market.

In 2014, their numbers grew to 53.000 units and 17% of all plug-ins sold that year, a year after they had 180.000 units and 31% of the EV market, and now, November 2016, they have 286.000 units sold this year and 43% of all EV's registered in 2016.

So, 6% to 43% share in less than three years. Not bad... 

2Tesla 4.76961.68592


  1. If I did my maths well (61.685 for Tesla total minus 43.347 for Tesla S) this means 18.338 for the Tesla X so far. Hum, very close of BAIC-E and BAIC EU260, so maybe the Tesla X end the year in the ten first.

    1. Spot on! :)

      The Model X will have a sales surge in December, but so should have the BAIC models...Not to mention the veteran BYD e6.

      That's why i think the Zoe is still in danger of being left out of the Top 10.

  2. Nice... :) Great work as usual.

    For 2017 I would love to see the tables increase to "World Top 30" for models (added models coming fast, so just skipping "World top 20" makes sense).
    And a "Top 20" table for manufacturers. :)

    1. Mmmm...Will consider it.

    2. Have to agree with this. Without a top 30 it leaves out so much info. It leaves out a lot of the China vs non-China dynamic

    3. That you will consider it is all that I can ask for. =) EVs are increasing fast and I hope you can cope with the "problem" of more sales, more models and more markets opening up and growing.

      By the way, any news about the Indian EV market? It's the one large market I feel I got no real idea of what is happening in.

    4. I will make a Top 30 next month, once the final numbers for 2016 are in.

      Regarding the Indian market, all i know is that Mahindra is selling some 80 units/month, apart from that, what i know is...Zero. :)

  3. Jose hi,

    Sorry, I'm not seeing how the numbers add up for BMW selling >7.5k units last month, if the i3 is only 2875 of that.

    Looking at individual models, what I'm seeing from BMW is i3 and a bunch of dwarves, dwarves that don't seen to add up to nearly 5k sales in November.
    For example, all the non-i3 BMWs in your Europe top 30 for November add up to less than 2300 sales. This list goes down to i8 with 97 sales. There are ~800 additional in the US, but still far short than nearly 5k.

    I'm probably missing something, but what is it? Thanks!

    1. In US BMW sold 1453 of i3, i8,X5 40e and 330e. In europe they sold i3, 330e, 225xe, X5 40e and i8 wish totally is 4350. Then 25 in Soth Korea, some in Canada wish takes the total up to nearly 6k but BMW have report that they sold 7571 in November so even Jose have got wrong numbers from some countries or he haven't cover all countries that BMW sales electric car in.

    2. 7.500 units is the official BMW number.

      I have 6.500 units from my own countings, so 1.000 is missing.

    3. I will give a "Renew" magazine to the one that can find the missing 1.000 units!

    4. How many manufacturer does give out separate numbers for electric car sales? If you are missing 1000 BMW sales in only November, how do we now that we are not missing a lot of sales from other manufacturer wish could change the table? You are really doing a great job with this site and I expect that you have to put down a lot of work but if you don´t get the numbers from the manufacturer and it can differ this mush you should point it out in the blog post. I know that BMW and Renault does give out monthly reports about there sales and Tesla gives out every quarter, wish other manufacturer gives out separate numbers for electric cars?

    5. To my knowledge, only Renault gives monthly official data, BMW does that when they have good news, as been happening recently.

      As for other manufacturers and sales not being counted on EV Sales, i don't think even multi-million dollar companies like IHS and Polk have the full data on EV's, so it is common sense to know there is a margin of error regarding the full picture.

      What i will say about EV Sales is this: No other free source of information is as close to reality as this blog.

      And i will send a "Renew" magazine to the one that can prove me wrong on this one.

  4. It seams like you have got a little to high number on Renault, they reported for some time ago that they delivered 1991 electric cars in November.

    1. Renault official report:

      1463 passenger Zoe + 103 Renault-Samsung SM3 ZE + 316 Kangoo ZE + 25 Zoe van + 187 Twizy = 2094 EV's

    2. Okay, didn't new that the Samsung car was done together with Renault.