Netherlands June 2017

Who will win the sub-40.000€ Best Selling Model contest?

Tesla leads, Zoe and e-Golf shine

While in past it was known for being the PHEV capital of the World, the incentives policy changes, early this year, led the Dutch EV market to change drastically, with BEVs now frankly outselling PHEVs, by a 5 to 1 order, with combined registrations actually increasing 6% YoY in June, to 958 units (Year best), and the EV share now standing at 1.8%.

Looking at June results, Tesla had its usual last-month-of-quarter deliveries peak, with the Model S registering 203 units and the Model X 121 units, placing themselves in the monthly ranking podium. 

But the American brands isn't the only to benefit from the BEV-friendly incentives scheme, the Renault Zoe registered 143 units last month, its best result since December 2013(!), allowing it to reach the Silver Medal, while the 36kWh version of the VW e-Golf allowed the nameplate to reach for the first time the three digit area, with 103 deliveries.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model S	203
2	Renault Zoe	143
3	Tesla Model X	121
4	VW e-Golf	103
5	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	90

Looking at the YTD ranking, the BMW i3 dropped two positions to Fourth Place, to the benefit of the #2 Tesla Model X and #3 Hyundai Ioniq Electric, with the German model possibly suffering from the increased competition and high purchase price. I think it's time for BMW to drop the price, after all, after four year in the market, they have margin to do it...

Unlike in other markets, the Nissan Leaf is showing its age here, dropping another position to #6, to the benefit of the Renault Zoe, while the VW e-Golf climbed to #7, making it a 100% BEV* Top 7.

Below the Top 10, mention to the arrivals of the Porsche Panamera PHEV, impressing with 50 deliveries (Or 80% of all Panamera registrations in June), presenting a strong application for the 2017 Best Selling PHEV title, but the Mini Countryman PHEV could have a saying in this, having also landed with 25 units, an interesting score that promises a successful career too.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is head and shoulders above the competition (33%), while in Second Place we have BMW (12%, down 1%), with Hyundai now closing the podium, with 11% share.

Pl	Netherlands	June	YTD	%	'16Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S Tesla Model X	203 121	828 480	21 12	5 15
3	Hyundai Ioniq Electric	90	442	11	23
4	BMW i3	54	420	11	14
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14	Renault Zoe Nissan Leaf Volkswagen e-Golf Volvo XC90 PHEV Mitsu. Outlander PHEV  Mercedes GLC350e Porsche Panamera PHV Volkswagen Passat GTE  Porsche Cayenne Plug-in Mercedes B250e	143 34 103 11 2 9 50 4 5	395 358 173 95 70 63 50 44 42 41	10 9 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 1	17 13 19 3 7 31 33 1 25 20
14 16 17 17	Kia Soul EV Volkswagen e-Up! T. Prius Plug-In (Gen I&II) Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	25 6 3 2	41 35 32 32	1 1 1 1	27 24 22 16
19 20	Mini Countryman PHEV Audi Q7 e-Tron	25 2	25 23	1 1	N/A  6
21	BMW 225xe Act Tourer	4	20	1	11
22 23 23	BMW 530e Citröen C-Zero Mercedes C350e	8 6 2	19 17 17	0 0 0	N/A 38 4
25 26 27	Mercedes E350e Smart Forfour ED BMW i8	2 15 2	16 15 14	0 0 0	10 N/A 29
27	BMW 740e	3	14	0	18
27 30	Smart Fortwo ED BMW 330e Others	14 3 7	14 13 84	0 0 2	38 2
	TOTAL	958	3.932	100

       





































* - Yes, i know, the BMW i3 is not really 100% BEV, but with only 7 Rex units among 413 BEV copies, we can consider it BEV, can't we?           

Source: RAI Vereniging

Regular Hybrids + Plug-ins Ranking

Pl	Model	June Sales
1	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	419
2	Kia Niro	374
3	Toyota C-HR Hybrid	321
4	Toyota Auris Hybrid	250
5	Tesla Model S	203

If we add regular hybrids to plug-ins, there are no significant changes regarding the previous month, the Toyota trio (Yaris and Auris stalwarts, C-HR rebel kid) is always present, while the Kia Niro repeats the brilliant Second Place (Now imagine the success that plug-in Niro's will have), with the Tesla Model S in Fifth.

Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	June Sales
1	BMW 5-Series	446
2	Volvo S/V90	350
3	Tesla Model S	203
4	Mercedes E-Class	159
5	Audi A6	77

Looking at the E-Segment/full-size vehicles, the BMW 5-Series is ahead of the Volvo S/V90 duo, with 446 units (Will the arrival of the T8 version pull Swedish sales up?), with the Tesla Model S completing the podium.

Tesla Model X & Others

Pl	Model	June Sales
1	Tesla Model X	121
2	Volvo XC90	68
3	BMW X5	52
4	LR Range Rover Sport	27
5	Jaguar F-Pace	23

Big SUV's had a big hit with the end of PHEV incentives, to the benefit of the Tesla Model X, which now has the big advantage of being the only model eligible to plug-in incentives.

With this in mind, it won't be surprising to see the Model X outselling the competition through the remainder of the year.

Tesla Model 3 & the others (Updated)

With just a couple of weeks until the final unveiling of the Tesla Model 3, i am biting my nails with antecipation, maybe like thousands of reservation holders, so to kill the time, i decided to compare it with the available crop of BEVs in Portugal and see how it stands in the main topics:


Range

Tesla Model 3 - 5 (Largest real world range and an extra point for the Supercharging ability)

BMW i3 - 2

Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 2

Nissan Leaf - 1

Renault Zoe - 3

Volkswagen e-Golf - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 4


Space

Tesla Model 3 - 4 (Around 50 liters more (420 l) in the trunk, plus more space in width)

BMW i3 - 1

Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 3

Nissan Leaf - 3

Renault Zoe - 2

Volkswagen e-Golf - 3

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 3


Reliability / Running costs

Tesla Model 3 - 3

BMW i3 - 3

Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 5 (Highest fuel efficiency, 5 year warranty, reliable LG battery)

Nissan Leaf - 3

Renault Zoe - 4

Volkswagen e-Golf - 3

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 3


Power / Dynamics

Tesla Model 3 - 5 (Waaay more power i will ever need, expectable leading dynamics)

BMW i3 - 4

Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 3

Nissan Leaf - 2

Renault Zoe - 1

Volkswagen e-Golf - 3

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 4


Price

Tesla Model 3 - 1

BMW i3 - 1

Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 2

Nissan Leaf - 5 (At 27.000 eur, it is 15.000 eur cheaper than the BMW i3...)

Renault Zoe - 3

Volkswagen e-Golf - 2

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 2

Total

Tesla Model 3 - 18 (The best model. But with an estimated price of 42.000 eur, it is very expensive...)

BMW i3 - 11 (A small car that shines on the Dynamics part, but sucks at the rest)

Hyundai Ioniq Electric - 15 (A balanced car that shines on the running costs, but in need of a larger battery)

Nissan Leaf - 14 (Unbeatable price, but the world has moved on when it comes to range and dynamics...)

Renault Zoe - 13 (A small car playing in the big boys league that needs a more powerful engine to play head to head with them)

Volkswagen e-Golf - 13 (Typical VW Golf personality traits: Not bad at anything, not especially good in any item and slightly overpriced)

Opel Ampera-e (Chevy Bolt) - 16 (Good power and range, but at an estimated 39k eur, it needs a lower price to be a class leader)

Canada May & June Preview

"Canadians like me!...Weeee!...."

Chevrolet Bolt is now Lieutenant

Canada's plug-in market continues on fire, with a record 1.556 new registrations being made in May, more than doubling last year result, while keeping the EV Share at a record 0.7%. 

With the Volt comfortably seated on the Best Seller seat, Chevrolet is now focused in delivering its new baby, the Bolt, in selected provinces. With 177 deliveries last month, Chevy's BEV model was for the third month in a row the Second Best Selling model, ahead of the homeboy Chrysler Pacifica PHEV (128 units), so one can say the little hatchback was promoted to lieutenant, leading the BEV segment, while the Captain Volt takes care of PHEVs...

Looking at the remaining models, the big news were the good results of the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV, with 128 deliveries, jumping to #9 and, production constraints permitting, aiming for a Top 5 seat.

Besides the Pacifica, a number of models reached new personal bests, like the Audi A3 e-Tron (65 units, increased stock tends to allow these things), or the Ford Focus Electric, with 50(!) units, with the Hyundai Ioniq Electric impressing in its first full sales month, delivering 108 units. Finally, we signal the arrival of the VW e-Golf (8 units) and Mini Countryman PHEV (6), two models that won't shake the market, but will do their part in increasing the total volumes.

In the manufacturers ranking, Chevrolet has its leadership secured for a long time, with 40% share, followed by Tesla (20%) and Nissan (10%). 

Looking into June preliminar results, the big news was the thundering arrival of the Toyota Prius Prime, with 144 registrations, promising to shake things up, if the Volt (347 units in June) leadership seems untouchable, the Bolt (169 units) Silver Medal, could be in danger, it all will depend on the availabilty of the Japanese hatchback, if Toyota provides enough units to cope with demand, then it might well be possible to see it in the Podium by year end...

The other significant model with available numbers is the forever-young Nissan Leaf, with 125 units, up three units regarding May.  

Pl	Canada	May	YTD	%
1	Chevrolet Volt	404	1.651	28
2	Chevrolet Bolt	177	697	12
3	Tesla Model S	107	587	10
4	Nissan Leaf	122	586	10
5 6 7 8 9	Tesla Model X Audi A3 e-Tron Kia Soul EV Volvo XC90 PHEV Chr. Pacifica PHEV	112 65 56 50 128	559 253 241 214 203	10 4 4 4 3
10 11 12	Por. Cayenne PHEV BMW X5 PHEV Hyun. Ioniq Electric	50 20 108	125 122 117	2 2 2
13	Ford Focus Electric	50	107	2
14 15	BMW i3 Ford C-Max Ener. e)	17 27	99 56	2 1
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 26 26 29	Ford Fusion Ener. e) BMW i8 BMW 330e Mitsubishi I-Miev Mercedes GLE550e Mercedes S550e BMW 740e Hyun. Sonata PHEV Volkswagen e-Golf Mini Count. PHEV P. Panamera Plug-In Chevrolet Spark EV Cadillac ELR Smart Fortwo ED	10 9 9 6 7 4 2 2 86 11	47 41 33 29 23 15 12 10 8 6 3 3 3	1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
	TOTAL	1.556	5.851	100

Source: Greencarreports

USA June 2017

Tesla Model 3, VIN 0000001. Surely the first of millions. And the dawn of a new era.

Waiting for Godot Model 3

The US market registered over 17.000 units, with YoY sales growing 16%, leaving the YTD EV Share north of 1%, the US market is headed for a record year, with December surely surpassing the 250.000 units landmark, and 300.000 units still a possibility.

While the arrival of the most maddly antecipated vehicle since, well...Ever, does not happens, Tesla had its usual last-month-of-quarter peak, winning the top two places, with the Model S (2.350 deliveries) outrunning its baby brother, the Model X (2.200), allowing the older model to recover the US YTD leadership.

Interestingly, this was the slowest peak month since Tesla has two models, while looking only to the Model S performance, it was its worst deliveries month since September 2015, when the Model X was officially launched...Is it a coincidence that now the Model 3 is weeks away from landing, deliveries have slowed down? Probably not, Tesla has now shifted priorities into the smaller model production ramp up, so S and X buyers will probably have to wait a little longer for their high end EVs. 

By the way, did you know that there are other PEVs on sale not named Tesla? Yes, they are not so media and Google friendly, but they (still) make the bulk of sales, among them, there are a couple of interesting points to notice:

- The BMW 330e reached a record 496 deliveries, the same happened with the 530e (239 deliveries), while the X5 PHEV hit a year best performance (488 units), so it seems BMW is opening the production gates for their short range PHEVs;

- The good old Nissan Leaf hit a year best(!), with 1.506 units being sold last month, an impressive feat, considering a much improved version is just months away...

- As the number of states where the problem child Chevrolet Bolt is available increases, the small BEV hits (small) record performances month after month, with the 1.642 being delivered representing its third record in a row. Interestingly, its Volt sibling registered only 1.745 units in June, its worst result since January and down 10% YoY. Is the new kid on the block beggining to hurt the plug-in hybrid model sales? 

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (23%, up 2%) has distanced itself from the Second Placed Chevrolet (21%). Looking forward, while Chevrolet will get a (small) boost in sales from the nationwide availability of its Bolt, Tesla should trounce it by year end, once the Model 3 production hit volume numbers.

 The race for Third place is also close, with Ford (12%) resisting (For how long?) Toyota (11%).

Pl	USA	June	YTD	%
1	Tesla Model S e)	2.350	11195	13
2	Chevrolet Volt	1.745	10932	12
3	Toyota Prius Prime	1.619	9.692	11
4	Tesla Model X e)	2.200	8.945	10
5	Chevrolet Bolt	1.642	7.592	9
6	Nissan Leaf	1.506	7.248	8
7	Ford Fusion Energi	707	5.057	6
8	Ford C-Max Energi	936	4.409	5
9 10	Fiat 500e BMW i3	495 567	3.828 2.992	4 3
11	BMW X5 PHEV	488	2.146	2
12	Audi A3 e-Tron	324	2.120	2
13 14 15	Volkswagen e-Golf BMW 330e Hyu. Sonata PHEV	232 496 255	1.887 1.869 1.415	2 2 2
16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34	C. Pacifica PHEV Ford Focus electric Por. Cayenne PHEV Kia Soul EV Volvo XC90 PHEV Mercedes S500e BMW 530e Kia Optima PHEV Mercedes B250e BMW 740e Mercedes C350e Mercedes GLE550e BMW i8 Hyundai Ioniq Elec. Smart Fortwo ED Cadillac CT6 PHEV Cadillac ELR Chevr. Spark EV Mini Country. PHEV Others	355 110 195 100 202 81 239 78 46 52 41 22 58 3 20 7 1 10	1.407 1.058 978 836 775 411 399 390 317 303 288 268 220 157 57 42 14 13 10 15	2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
	TOTAL	17182	89285	100

 e) Estimate

Source: insideevs.com; goodcarbadcar.com


Tesla Model S & Others

Pl	Model	June Sales
1	Mercedes E/CLS-Class	4.316
2	BMW 5-Series	4.068
3	Tesla Model S e)	2.350
4	Audi A6	1.425
5	Mercedes S-Class	1.169

Looking at the E-Segment/full-size vehicles, both the Mercedes E/CLS-Class and BMW 5-Series benefit from volume deliveries of the new generation to stay well above the other models, with the Tesla Model S staying in its usual Third Place. 

It will be interesting to see if the upcoming Model 3 will cannibalize sufficient sales of the Model S, that forces it to drop it from its usual Bronze Model.

As for the Tesla Model X, its 2.200 units are not enough to reach the Top 5 in its class (#5 was the Volvo XC90, with 2.751 registrations), not only it has more competition to deal with, but also higher numbers to reach (Usually high end SUVs sell two to three times more than their sedan siblings), proving once again that the Tesla SUV should have been doing much better (Around 3.000 units/month) than its five year old brother.