I. Big Eight
Let's see how the Big Eight EV Markets fared in 2016:
* BYD Tang #1 - But the BYD SUV was losing power in the last months of the year;
* 351.000 units - At some point i was expecting 400k units, but still, is whole lot more than the 207k of 2015. And the Market Share reached 1.45%, more than the US or Europe.
* Tesla Model S #1 - Second Title (And last?) for the Californian, but the Chevy Volt was not that far off;
* 159.000 sales - Strong second half of the year, leaving good signs for 2017.
* Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV #1 - The unthinkable happened, for the first time, a PHEV was the Best Selling plug-in in Norway! It was not only in Global Politics that Hell has frozen;
* 46.000 units in Norway - Sales continue to grow higher and higher (29.5% market share!), albeit through plug-in hybrids, as BEV's have stagnated in 2016.
* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and ended with a new all-time record;
* 22.000 units - What can i say, big disappointment here.
* Renault Zoe #1 - How could it be otherwise?
* 34.000 units - Steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 1.7%.
* BMW i3 #1 - The prodigal son took the Trophy home after a close race with the Renault Zoe.
* 27.000 sales - A bit disappointing, only 3.000 units above 2015, and that's with incentives kicking in...What's wrong with this picture?
* VW Passat GTE #1 - In one of the most dramatic twists of 2016, the VW Passat GTE took the leadership crown in the last month of the year from the
head ceiling of the Volvo XC90 T8;
* 23.000 units - Far from the 43k sales of 2015, a tremendous drop, but i'm afraid the sales slowdown will continue in 2017...
II. Engines of Growth
* By EV Share
One is pretty obvious, after all, the Norwegian EV performance continues to be the poster-child for the EV Scene, with the market share ending 2016 at 29.5% vs 23% in 2015.
But there were other markets pulling up strongly, like Sweden (3.6% now vs 2.6% in '15), Belgium, (1.8% in '16 vs 0.8% in '15) or Austria (1.6% vs 0.7%). But the most impressive market was Iceland, with the EV Share jumping from an already high 2,9% in '15, to 4.6% now!
Other markets with healthy rises were China (1.45% vs 0.84%), the UK (1.48% vs 1.07%) and Finland (1.2% vs 0.6%), which together with France (1.7%), Netherlands (6%), Switzerland (1.8%), Hong Kong (+/- 5%) and Sri Lanka (+/- 2%), make a grand total of 13 markets with over 1% market share...Not bad, eh?
* By Volume
EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case China made all the headlines, with 144.000 more units being sold in 2016 than in the previous year, at this pace, China will reach half a million EV's sold in 2017...
Others have also progressed greatly, like the USA (43k more, to 158k) or Norway (46k vs 34k), while the UK (40k vs 28k), continues to outpace the growth of France (34k vs 27k) and Germany (27k vs 24k), outside the Big 8, there are also markets adding significant volume, like Belgium (+5.5k!), Sweden (+4.5k) or Canada (+4k), while South Korea finally woke up and grew to 5.883 units in 2016, up from 2.681 in the previous year. A market to keep an eye in 2017.
III. Other markets
A few words regarding markets that have fallen through the cracks or are just beginning:
Hong Kong - It's all Tesla here, with the BMW i3 a distant second;
South Africa - BMW all the way, but numbers have fallen regarding 2015;
Poland - Stable market, with the BMW i3 winning over the Outlander PHEV;
Brazil - Once again, BMW is doing its homework here, waiting for a possible sales boom;
Russia - It's all about Tesla fanatics;
Mexico - Nissan Leaf wins;
UAE - Some 300 BMW i8's found home here;
Slovakia - Nissan are the only ones doing something here;
Colombia - Twizy is King, but the BMW i3 is finding its niche;
Hungary - BMW and Nissan run for Best Seller, BMW wins;
Croatia - VW e-Up! has a following here;
Malaysia - Nissan doing the heavy lifting;
Sri Lanka - The Nissan Leaf is a local darling;
IV. 2016 vs 2015
Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2015 (Previous winner):
Nissan Leaf - Japan (Outlander PHEV); Italy (Like in 2014 and 2015); Estonia (Since 2013); Ireland (Since 2011); Portugal (Outlander PHEV); Slovakia (Like in 2014 and 2015); Cyprus; Malaysia (Renault Twizy); Mexico; Sri Lanka (Since 2013).
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV - Norway (VW e-Golf); UK (Like in 2014 and 2015); Australia (Like in 2014 and 2015); New Zealand (Like in 2014 and 2015); Spain (Like in 2015); Iceland (VW e-Golf); Costa Rica;
BMW i3 - Germany (Kia Soul EV); Czech Republic (Like in 2014 and 2015); Slovenia (Renault Zoe); Poland (Outlander PHEV); Romania (Outlander PHEV); Hungary; Greece; South Africa (Like in 2015); Brazil.
Renault Zoe - France (Since 2013); Austria (Tesla Model S); Denmark (Tesla Model S);
Model S - Switzerland (Like in 2014 and 2015); USA (Like in 2015); Hong Kong (Like in 2015); Luxembourg;
Volvo XC90 T8 - Belgium (Tesla Model S); Finland (Tesla Model S);
VW Passat GTE - Netherlands (Outlander PHEV); Sweden (Outlander PHEV).
Chevrolet Volt - Canada (Tesla Model S);
Hyundai Ioniq Electric - South Korea (Renault Samsung SM3 ZE).
BYD Tang - China (BYD Qin).
Renault Twizy - Colombia (Like in 2015); Ecuador;
VW e-Up! - Lithuania (BMW i3); Croatia (Like in 2015)
BMW i8 - Turkey (Like in 2015); UAE
Examining this, we can see that the Tesla Model S lost a great number of markets, collecting only four awards, while the Nissan Leaf recovered five markets, one of them being its home country, winning 10 Best Seller trophies.
Mitsubishi's SUV also lost a number of #1's, with only seven markets crowning it as the Best Seller, but had a somewhat unexpected award in Norway (Kudos for the local importer), while the BMW i3 won in nine markets, including its home Germany, with these four models being the only ones to win in more than three markets.
Dear Jose, thanks for the excellent round-up and insights. Do you have the actual data for the III. Other markets? I am especially interested in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia UAE, HK and ZA. If you could post this data, it would be super interesting. Thanks man.ReplyDelete
Please send me an email (email@example.com)and we will discuss it.Delete