45% BEV Share! 60% PEV Share! (History in the making)
Despite not hitting March's record sales, mostly due to PHEVs being down 32% YoY, the September sharp drop in sales (-21%) on the mainstream market, originated by the previous WLTP-sales rush, has lead to record BEV (45%) and PEV (60%) shares, and the share could have been even greater, hadn't the VW e-Golf scored a miserable score (It registered only 133 units, its worst performance in over 4(!) years), along with some models waiting list (Hyundai Kona BEV, Jaguar í-Pace, etc...) being (very) production constrained.
On this topic, based on this article, one of our readers sent a list of the BEV waiting lists in Norway: Kona BEV - 7.800 units; Niro BEV - 5.600; Audi e-Tron - 5.500(!); i-Pace - 3.100; Mercedes EQC - >2.000; DS3 Crossback - 1.000 in a couple of days!
Adding them up, we have 25.000 reservations in the waiting...And we are not counting the Tesla Model 3!
On this topic, based on this article, one of our readers sent a list of the BEV waiting lists in Norway: Kona BEV - 7.800 units; Niro BEV - 5.600; Audi e-Tron - 5.500(!); i-Pace - 3.100; Mercedes EQC - >2.000; DS3 Crossback - 1.000 in a couple of days!
Adding them up, we have 25.000 reservations in the waiting...And we are not counting the Tesla Model 3!
In this context, 2019 should see Norway get some 66% PEV share, with peak months possibly reaching 80%. Ambitious? Possibly, but next year we will see the Tesla Model 3 cross the ocean, a 60kWh Leaf, Kia Niro EV, second year of the Hyundai Kona BEV, etc...Now, it doesn't sound so outlandish, does it?
Proof of that are plug-ins reaching a record 60% share in September, with the fuels mix showing BEVs well in front (45%), followed from a far by gasoline (16% of all sales, vs 22% last year), while PHEVs were Third, with 15% share, while diesel-powered cars hit a new low, with 12% share (It had 18% twelve months ago), with the remainder (11%) going to regular HEVs.
At this pace, Diesel will be dead in Norway in two (one?) years time.
Looking at September Top Sellers, it's all about Tesla and the Nissan Leaf, with both Tesla's hitting year best performances, 1.234 units for the Model X and 782 for the Model S, this last result is the most surprising, as one could expect that the sales of the oldest Tesla nameplate would already be affected by the Model 3 long shadow, but apparently there's still enough life in it to continue moving on.
The Japanese hatchback scored its second consecutive four-digit score, so it seems the Leaf sales have stabilized around 1.000 units/month, enough to win the Best Seller status, not only on the PEV market, but also on the regular mainstream market.
The remaining places went for the BMW i3, with 458 units, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV scored 380 units, its best performance since April, and a rare brightspot for plug-in hybrids this month.
Looking at the 2018 ranking, the most important news were both Teslas climbing one position, with the Model X reaching #4 and the Model S #5, thus making a 100% BEV Top 5.
The Volvo XC60 PHEV was the only plug-in hybrid to have reasons to smile about, climbing one position, to #7. Will it be able to discuss the Best Selling PHEV title with the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV? Doubt it, but you never know...
But the mommentum is on BEVs, particularly Korean: The Hyundai Ioniq Electric had its best result since 2016, with 288 deliveries, and could climb a few spots in the coming months, while its recently arrived Kona BEV sibling registered 180 units and could should reach a Top 20 position before year end.
Another Korean on the rise was the Kia Soul EV, that climbed two positions, to #16.
A final reference to the 114 registrations of the Jaguar i-Pace last month, with September being its first real deliveries month, let's hope the production constraints are a thing of the past and the British SUV quickly picks up...the pace.
Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Nissan is in the lead (17%, down 1%), but is closely followed by BMW (15%), Volkswagen (14%) and Tesla (12%, up 1%), so at first sight, the Japanese automaker should need to keep a close eye on them to remain with the Gold Medal, but because PHEVs are a big part of the German pursuitors, they will have a harder time selling in the last quarter of the year, so Tesla might even get ahead of them and end 2018 in the runner-up position.
Models breakdown by Fuel Source
With the PEV share at 60%, the plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have four BEVs in the Top 4, followed a balanced mix, with 1 BEV, 2 PHEVs, 3 HEVs and no ICE models in sight, but the telling story is that the Best Selling HEV (Toyota RAV4) was only #8, with the remaining hybrids ending right behind it.
BEVs took all podium places, with the best selling Plug-in hybrid (Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV) being #5.
With regular ICE models (again) wiped out from the Top 10, and the Best Selling HEV only #8, will we see a 100% plug-in Top 10 soon? Let's say...December?
With the aforementioned WLTP-related sales hangover, even Fuel Cells had their best month ever, Share-wise, with the September FCEV Share reaching 0.08%, double of the 2018 share (0.04%), thanks to 8 Hyundai Nexo registrations, pulling the yearly tally to 38 units (24 Toyota Mirai and 14 Hyundai Nexo).
Once again, Norway is pointing the way.
ReplyDeleteThe BMW i3 with the largest 42+ kWh battery may be able to significantly increase the numbers.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteNissan Leaf sales in Japan in September 2018 have increased substantially (compared to September 2017). A whopping increase of 1292% has been realized in September 2018 in Japan. That must be around 2,500?
September 2017 was the last month of sales of the first generation of the Nissan Leaf in Japan. Therefore, the sales numbers of the Nissan Leaf in September 2017 in Japan were very low. Probably even less than 200.
Cheers
Should be interesting to see, then.
Delete2811 units for the Leaf in Japan. Nice!
DeleteMaths isn`t the strong point here, we have proof of it in this topic: 45% + 60% it gives; less than 100%? Maybe, but then the writing skills are lacking.
ReplyDeleteAnd then there is the always present "death will come by"...
dunno, but when I read in this topic that last year gasoline mix had 22% and now is at 16%, my math skills give me 6% drop, yet diesel get the same drop and are the only ones supposed to die?
With the more WLTP compliant mild hybrid models, do we will see diesel-only or the gasoline-only vehicles going to extinction? I bet mild hybrid gasoline vehicles will have a much more tough life than PHEV vehicles, giving the door open to diesel becoming 100% mild hybrid models. We will see.
Dear Anonymous, the BEV category is made only by 100% electric vehicles, eke "pure EVs", while PEVs include all vehicles that have a plug, putting it in math form:
DeletePEV = BEV + PHEV
Now, replacing the categories by its respective numbers, we have:
60 = 45 + PHEVs
Making some simple math:
PHEVs = 15
So, the 60% PHEV share is the sum of the 45% on the BEV side plus 15% on the PHEV side.
I hope i have been clear on this.
Regarding diesel, with the Tesla Model 3 in full swing and a series of new EVs landing soon, i seriously doubt that in 2020 a significant number of buyers will go for new diesel cars in Norway, but my guess is as good as your, so let's wait a couple of years and see what happens.
Jose,
ReplyDeleteAbout those BEV waiting lists in Norway.
The Nissan Leaf also has (had) a waiting list in Norway.
Nissan receives many new orders for the Nissan Leaf in Norway on a daily basis.
And this will continue to be the case in 2019.
The Nissan Leaf has built a certain base of Nissan Leaf fans over the years in Norway. And Nissan delivers them on a regular basis in Norway. Therefore, the Nissan Leaf will still be delivered in Norway in substantial numbers for many years to come.
The Nissan Leaf is one of the very first pioneer EV models.
Cheers
True, we have to add a few thousands from Nissan to the tally, which highlights how constrained the BEV market is.
Delete