Canada September 2016 & October Preview

Canada's love affair with the Volt is back

Canada - Feel Good Inc.

Canada's EV market continues breaking volume records, last September was no exception, with a record 1.265 units registered, with YoY up 70%, pulling the EV Share to a record 0.51% (And over 0.73% in September), pulling the Canadian EV Market to some 9.000 10.000 units by year end, shattering the 6.657 units recorded last year.

The (feel) good news do not end on the total market numbers, looking at individual performances, the local darling Chevrolet Volt once again improved its own record for the third fourth fifth sixth consecutive time, to 446 units, which begs the question: Where will the sales peak for the Chevy product be? 500 units a month? 600? 

Spoiler alert for October: The Volt reached 337 units last month, ending a seemingly never ending streak of Month on Month growth that had been happening since February. So, for the time being, sales peaked at 446 units.

The other significant model with October numbers is the Nissan Leaf, with 132 units, up 17% YoY.

Looking at the rest of the ranking, the main news was the rise-and-rise of the Tesla Model X in the ranking, up another position to Fourth, while the tiny Chevrolet Spark EV also improved its (small) personal best in September, to 14 units, with the upcoming Bolt just a few weeks distance, GM decided end the little EV that could career. We say farewell to Sparky's amusing character, knowing that if GM had decided to promote it properly, it could have been so much more successful than just another compliance car...

In the manufacturers ranking, Chevrolet is ahead, with 33% share, followed by Tesla (23%) and Nissan (14%), with BMW climbing to Fourth, with 8%.

Looking at the BEV/PHEV share, plug-in hybrids are benefiting from the Chevrolet Volt newfound success to take back the majority of sales (51% share), when in 2015 they ended with just 33% share.

Pl	Canada	Sept.	YTD	%
1	Chevrolet Volt	446	2.544	32
2	Tesla Model S	187	1.194	15
3	Nissan Leaf	146	1.085	14
4	Tesla Model X	238	627	8
5 6 7 8 9	Kia Soul EV  Volvo XC90 T8 Audi A3 e-Tron BMW i3 BMW X5 40e	50 41 11 21 28	509 391 254 234 200	6 5 3 3 3
9 11	P. Cayenne Plug-In Ford C-Max E.   e)	26 18	191 190	2 2
12	BMW i8	7	131	2
13	Ford Focus Electric	6	98	1
14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23	Mitsubishi I-Miev Ford Fusion E.   e) Chevrolet Spark EV P. Panamera Plug-In BMW 330e Cadillac ELR Mercedes S550e Smart Fortwo ED Renault Twizy Porsche 918	9 2 14 7 8	73 68 43 28 15 10 7 6 4 1	1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
	TOTAL	1.265	7.903	100

Source: Good Car Bad Car / Green Car Reports


Tesla Model S vs The Others 

Pl	Model	YTD '16
1	Mercedes CLS / E-Class	2.408
2	BMW 5-Series	1.528
3	Tesla Model S	1.194
4	Mercedes S-Class	790
5	Audi A6	699

Like in its domestic market, the Model S is stable at the Third Spot, but the BMW 5-Series is closer here than south of the border, maybe with a sales push it can overcome it soon.

Tesla Model X vs The Others 

Pl	Model	Sept. '16
1	BMW X5	773
2	Mercedes GLE	667
3	Audi Q7	418
4	Mercedes GLS	274
5	Tesla Model X	238

Now that the Model X is on its fourth deliveries month, we can start to see where it will be its average score, by delivering 238 units, it allowed it to reach the Fifth Position, but in order to reach the Third Spot, like the Model S does in its class, it has to double the output to some 400 units/month, can Tesla pull it off?

New Zealand October 2016

Best. Name Plate. Ever.

Record  Month 

The Kiwi EV Market is very much alive, having registered a record 57 plug-ins sold last month, up three fold YoY, with the EV Share at 0.3%.

Looking at the models ranking, the usual driving force and current YTD leader, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, has seen its status being questioned recently by the BMW i3, that has won the last two Best Seller trophies, with a personal record of 17 registrations in October. 

An unexpected success story is what it can be said about the Renault Kangoo ZE, which is now Third in the ranking, trailing sales of its Zoe sibling (#12, with only 4 sales). 

In the remaining YTD ranking, the Tesla Model S is Fourth but the Audi A3 e-Tron is just one unit behind.

In the manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi is ahead, with 39% share, but BMW (28%) is gaining ground, thanks to its six(!) model line up, followed by Renault, with 10% share.

Looking at the BEV/PHEV breakdown, all-electric vehicles are up 4% YoY, to 37%, which is the best score for BEV's since 2013, when the total amount of EV's sold was just 15 units. 

Pl	New Zealand	Oct.	YTD '16	%	'15Pl
1	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	15	139	39	1
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 8 8 11	BMW i3 Renault Kangoo ZE Tesla Model S Audi A3 e-Tron Volvo XC90 T8 BMW 225xe Active Tourer Mercedes C350e Porsche Cayenne Plug-In BMW i8 BMW X5 40e	17 4 4 2 2 1 1 1 3 1	70 31 23 22 19 14 7 7 7 6	20 9 6 6 5 4 2 2 2 2	2 N/A 5 4 N/A N/A N/A 6 N/A N/A
12 13 13 15	Renault Zoe Volkswagen e-Golf BMW 330e BMW 740e	1 1	4 3 3 1	1 1 1 0	N/A N/A N/A N/A
TOTAL		57	356	100

Source: mia.org.nz

Regular Hybrids + Plug-ins Ranking

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Toyota Corolla Hybrid	22
2	Lexus RX450h	22
3	BMW i3	17
4	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV	15
5	Toyota Camry Hybrid	11

Adding regular hybrids to plug-ins, the growth trend of the last ones is starting to make a dent in regular hybrids, last month two plug-ins (BMW i3 in #3 and Outlander PHEV in #4) showed up in the Top positions, something unthinkable just a year ago.

With these first signs of vulnerability, I believe it will be a question of time until Toyota NZ follows their European counterparts and starts heavily discounting their hybrids.

Netherlands October 2016

VW Passat GTE: Made For Fleet Managers

Company Car Month

As the year approaches the end, fleet buyers are starting to do their Company Car shopping more actively, and the numbers are showing it, with 1.487 registrations, it was the second best result of the year, with the EV Share recovering to 3%, but far from the 9.6% of last year.

Looking at the Top 5 ranking, the Company Car trend is visible, with the Monthly Best Seller award going to the fleet-favorite VW Passat GTE, with 250 deliveries its best result this year, followed by another fleet-friendly car, the BMW 330e, that 182 registrations, has beaten its personal best for the second time in a row.

Two trendy SUV's follow suit, with the Audi Q7 e-Tron beating the Volvo XC90 T8 by ten units, while the VW Golf GTE rounds up the Top 5, with 114 units, also its best result of the year, meaning fleet buyers haven't forgot one of the 2015 favorites.

With these results, breaking down the general ranking by fuel source, these models have made an impact in their respective segments, with the Passat GTE representing 44% of all Passat sales, ending in Second in the D-Segment/Midsize class, only behind the ICE Passat, while the 330e represented 49% of all 3-Series sales, ending #4 in its class.

The Audi Q7 e-Tron (84% of all Q7 sales) and the Volvo XC90 T8 (75%) also were leaders in the Luxury SUV class, so if you want to sell this kind of vehicles in the Netherlands, it'd better to have a plug...  

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Volkswagen Passat GTE	250
2	BMW 330e	182
3	Audi Q7 e-Tron	133
4	Volvo XC90 T8	123
4	Volkswagen Golf GTE	114

In the YTD ranking, there weren't major changes in the Top Spots, with the Audi Q7 e-Tron climbing to #7, while the Tesla Model X was down two places to #12, the Audi A3 e-Tron was up to #15 and the BMW 740e jumped to #20.

Three new models show up in the ranking, with the Mercedes E350e starting in uncharted territory (PHEV E-Segment), 50 units/month would probably be a good result, while two new Koreans are present, the Optima PHEV landed in one of the most popular segments so a lot is expected from it, while the Hyundai Ionic Electric is off to a good start, with 21 registrations in its first full sales month, let's see if the small-range-but-otherwise-talented Hyundai can run with the best in its class.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW's strong line up has helped it to maintain the leadership (22%), while the Volvo (17%) is back to Second Place, dropping Tesla (16%) to Third, the American car maker has to watch its back, has the #4 Volkswagen (15%) is closing in.

Pl	Netherlands	Oct.	YTD	%	'15Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S Volvo XC90 T8	57 123	1.328 1.303	14 14	8 7
3	BMW 330e	182	1.121	12	25
4	Volkswagen Passat GTE	250	917	10	6
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12	Mercedes C350e Nissan Leaf Audi Q7 e-Tron BMW 225xe Active Tourer BMW i3 * Volvo V60 Plug-In Volkswagen Golf GTE Tesla Model X	108 89 133 79 30 66 114 18	743 565 506 466 330 284 280 249	8 6 5 5 3 3 3 3	5 13 N/A 17 12 3 2 N/A
13	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	55	233	2	1
14 15	Renault Zoe Audi A3 e-Tron	7 53	157 132	2 1	14 4
16	Volkswagen e-Golf	5	129	1	28
17	Mercedes B250e	3	107	1	19
18 19 20 21	Porsche Cayenne Plug-In Toyota Prius Plug-In BMW 740e Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	8 5 20 3	89 71 70 64	1 1 1 1	10 22 N/A 15
22	Volkswagen e-Up!		63	1	28
23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 33 35	BMW X5 40e Kia Soul EV BMW i8 Mercedes GLE500e Kia Optima PHEV Hyundai Ioniq Electric Renault Kangoo ZE Mercedes E350e Porsche Panamera Plug-In Peugeot iOn Renault Twizy Mercedes GLC350e Mercedes S500e Others	5 7 3 4 11 21 19 1 4 4	55 55 41 40 37 23 19 19 17 16 13 13 7 16	1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0	11 24 20 27 N/A N/A 25 N/A 21 N/A 28 N/A 18
	TOTAL	1.487	9.574	100

                   

* - 23 Bev + 7 Rex

Source: RAI Vereniging

Regular Hybrids + Plug-ins Ranking

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Toyota Yaris Hybrid	279
2	Volkswagen Passat GTE	250
3	Toyota Auris Hybrid	249
4	BMW 330e	182
5	Kia Niro	167

If we add regular hybrids to plug-ins, the Toyota Yaris Hybird is back at the leadership, but this time the other Toyota best seller, the Auris Hybrid, was surpassed by the VW Passat GTE, which wasn't that far (Only 29 units behind) from the leadership. 

Will we see a plug-in lead the ranking until year end?

  

Plug-ins have another representative, with the BMW 330e reaching Fourth, while last month leader, the Kia Niro, was down to Fifth.