Monday, October 17, 2016

2016 Forecasts - Q3 Update

In the beginning of the year, i published some forecasts regarding 2016 that me and my partners from EV Volumes made, let's see how they are, now that we are at three quarters of the year:

2016 ForecastsJoseRolandViktor
1) World Total850.000850.000N/A
2) World #1BYD TangMit. Outlander PHEVN/A
3) China Total400.000350.000350.000
4) China #1BYD TangBYD TangBYD Tang
5) USA Total175.000170.000170.000
6) USA #1Chevrolet VoltChevrolet VoltTesla Model S
7) Japan Total30.00023.00038.000
8) Japan #1Nissan LeafMit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEV
9) Europe Total250.000280.000280.000
10) Europe #1Mit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEV
11) Netherlands T.27.50035.00035.000
12) Netherlands #1Mit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEV
13) Norway Total45.00050.00050.000
14) Norway #1Volkswagen e-GolfVolkswagen e-GolfVolkswagen e-Golf
15) UK Total40.00040.00045.000
16) UK #1Mit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEVMit. Outlander PHEV
17) France Total37.50042.00040.000
18) France #1Renault ZoeRenault ZoeRenault Zoe
19) Germany Total37.50044.00035.000
20) Germany #1VW Passat GTEKia Soul EVKia Soul EV

1) With registrations at over 510k now and sales up 45% YoY, we get some 800k...Not that far off, then.

2) Nissan Leaf is #1 right now, but the difference to the Tesla Model S is minimal, and with the Californian at full speed, we should see the Model S repeat last year win. 

3) Sales are at 225k, and considering the end of the year peak, we should see it reach 400k by year end. One for me.

4) BYD Tang is #1, with 19k, with the #2 (BYD Qin) 8k behind...Enough said. One for each.

5) The US market is growing 33%, which is leading to a 154k total number, which is 16k below expected. Then again, the Chevy Bolt  and Prius Prime might still pull the market up in the last minute, right?

6) With the Model S at 20k and the Chevrolet Volt at 16k, i believe Tesla has this one secured. One for Viktor.

7) With Japan down 2%, they are set to a 25k total number. One for Roland.

8) With the Leaf at 11k and the Outlander PHEV at 4k, Nissan's hatch has 99% probability of winning the 2016 title. One for me.

9) The European EV Market is set to end at around 240k, a bit below our forecasts.

10) With the Zoe at 16k, the Outlander PHEV at 15k and the Leaf around 13k, it is too early to give a sure winner, but at the moment the Zoe is the favorite.

11) Sales are down 54%(!), so the total number should be around 15-20k, much lower than our forecasts.

12) Another big miss, right now the most likely Best Sellers are the Tesla Model S or the Volvo XC90 T8.

13) I remember we had some difficulty doing this forecast, as we were afraid to be too conservative, but with growth at just 32%, the market is going according to our forecasts, for 45k-50k by year end. One for all.

14) The VW e-Golf might still be #1, but for now, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is ahead.

15) The UK market is up some 42% and headed to some 40k, it seems Brexit hasn't impacted the EV Market growth. One for me and Roland.

16) The Outlander PHEV will be #1 with 75% certainty, but the Mercedes C350e might still surprise. One for all.

17) The French EV market is up 38%, leading to some 39k. One for Viktor.

18) No surprises here, the Renault Zoe has 8k, the #2 Nissan Leaf has 3k. One for all.

19) Looking just at the growth rate (20%), this market would go for some 30k, but with the recent surge, expect an increase in sales, so expect sales to end between 30k to 40k. 

20) Quite frankly, anything can happen, the Renault Zoe is the current leader, but the BMW i3 is coming in strong, and even the Kia Soul EV might come out of nowhere and steal the show at the last minute.

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