Saturday, March 23, 2019

Op-Ed: Top 10 Countries in 2018

This is the Inside EVs contributor Assaf Oron Top 10 in 2018, an article i had the pleasure to help doing, it ranks the countries that made a larger contribution for the EV Revolution last year. Enjoy: 

2018 has been a true transition year. One could say, Year 0 of EVs charging into the major
leagues. For that we have to thank mostly China, Tesla, and Hyundai-Kia, in that order.


 According to Jose, global EV sales surged 65% over 2017 (and 2017 was 58% over
2016!) - ending at just over 2 million new plug-in vehicles, and 2.1% global market
share. It should be noted that the ICE auto market was slightly down in 2018, and is
forecast to drop even further in 2019.

 For the first time ever, a single EV sold in six figures in a single year, a classic major-
league sales milestone. And the Tesla Model 3 did it in style, with nearly 146k
deliveries in its first full year on the market!

 The world’s leading EV market by volume, China, crossed another milestone with over
a million EVs sold in one country in one year, the vast majority BEVs.

I keep the exact same scoring system as last year’s list, so the points are directly comparable
to 2017. If in 2017, only the top 2 countries reached 50+ points and #3 had 45, in 2018 we
have 4 with 50+ and 2 with 45+, while the leader gallops towards 80.

Ok let’s go. Last year’s place is in parentheses.

10 th Place – tie (8 th and 9th): Germany and Ukraine, 40 points. Claim to fame: Germany’s
EV consumers run ahead of its stagnating automakers; Ukraine continues to play role-model
for low/med-income countries and to shame spoiled Western EV consumers, but suffers
fluctuating denominators.

An interesting pair these two make, being Europe’s economic powerhouse and its anchor of
stability, vs. one of the continent’s poorest with a wildly unstable economy.

German automakers’ EV production was flat in 2018, a bit over 200k. Their years-long bet on
subpar PHEVs backfired spectacularly, with July’s EU-wide introduction of more stringent
emissions standards. They were caught flatfooted and had to revamp all PHEVs. VW is
talking big about near-future EV production, but talk is cheap. I would also really like to see
Mercedes e-buses in large quantities, there is absolutely no excuse for the Western world’s
largest bus-maker to continue foot-dragging on this. German consumers, meanwhile, nudged
sales and market share up by about one-third to ~70k and ~2.0%, salvaging Germany from
dropping out of the Top 10.

Just like in previous years, over half of EVs introduced to Ukraine’s roads last year were
used imported Leafs. BEV sales roughly doubled to 5300, but PHEVs probably dropped (I
don’t have exact numbers). The overall auto market increased due to a sharp rise in used-
imports. So it seems the effective EV market share stayed roughly flat at 3-3.2%.

Ukraine shows how a low-medium income country can play a meaningful role in the EV
revolution. But I’ve realized there’s an even stronger lesson for us in the West, in particular
the US.

Every year, thousands of Ukrainians – a country where the average monthly salary is $300 –
line up to pay $15,000 for an 80-100 mile used American Leaf. In their harsh winter, range
might be easily 40% shorter than that, and there are hardly any quick-charge stations – but
there’s always demand for those used Leafs.

Meanwhile, Americans who make easily 10x more than Ukrainians, have access to brand-
new Leafs with double the range for the cheapest prices to be found anywhere, and to brand-
new Bolts with triple the range for not much more – but could not be bothered. In fact, to
judge by comments on American EV sites and by some “analysis” stories, the offer to, say,
lease a 150-mile Leaf for 3 years at a price of $7-10k total out-of-pocket, no worries about
battery depletion or resale value (or to get e.g., a 125-mile eGolf for a similar price) – is a
ridiculously bad deal, beneath contempt, almost a crime against Humanity.

So, my fellow EV fans: do you really like EVs? As much as the Ukrainians do? Please do
maintain some perspective. Thank you.

9 th Place: Japan (tie-5th), 43 points. Claim to fame: stagnant domestic market and limited
focus by automakers, combine for a continued slide.

Japan slid to its lowest place in the list’s history. Its EV market, dominated by 1-2 domestic
models, was down somewhat to 52k sales and 1.0% market share, lower than any other
country in the Top 20, let alone the Top 10. The 240-km Gen 2 Leaf whose best 2018 market
was Japan, salvaged things from cratering completely. It should be noted that the Japanese
don’t buy Korean EVs and vice-versa. I wonder whether this has to do with mutually
destructive tariffs.

Just like Germany, Japan’s world-leading auto industry should do much more on EVs. One
cannot deny that the world’s most common BEV and most common PHEV are still both Japan
designed-and-made, and both had a good year (Leaf and Outlander). Also, Honda showed
what it can do with the Clarity PHEV – which with the Volt’s retirement, is the world’s best
passenger PHEV on offer (only available in the US, though?). So unlike the Germans’ wacky
EV offerings thus far, the Japanese certainly have it in them when they want it. Most of them,
unfortunately, still don’t want it. To add insult to injury, we now have the Ghosn scandal, losing
Japan’s prominent EV front man.

The main thing preventing Japan from dropping out of the Top 10 like a depleted Leaf battery-
pack, is its global leadership role in battery production (Panasonic-Tesla, and to a lesser
extent also AESC-Nissan).

8 th Place: Iceland (7 th ), 43.5 points. Claim to fame: Iceland continues its role as the “mini-
Norway”, although a bit more like Sweden.

Sparsely-populated Iceland saw EV sales increase to 3500 and 17.5% market share, #2 in
the world, with December’s share around 30%. Sounds a lot like Norway a few years ago,
except that the EV mix here is PHEV-heavy like in Sweden.

7 th Place: The United Kingdom (tie-11th), 44 points. Claim to fame: steady rise and
production spurt finally land the UK solidly in the Top 10.

The UK was a perennial “almost”, never quite making it into the annual Top Countries list.
Well, it landed with a bang and seems here to stay. Unless the ongoing Brexit fiasco craters
its EV scene.

Sales increased ~40% to 61.4k and 2.3% share, but the big story was production. Nissan’s
Sunderland plant feeds Europe’s Gen 2 Leaf demand, while Jaguar got tired of the Germans’
empty talk about their mythical “Tesla-killer”, and came out relatively quickly with the i-Pace, a
veritable competition to the Model X selling a solid 7k units in its first few months.

6 th Place: The Netherlands (16th), 45 points. Claim to fame: our biggest mover has
successfully reinvented itself as a BEV haven, but how about a little more consistency from
now on?

While the UK added an impressive 9 points, the Netherlands jumped by a full 12, advancing
10 spots. A few years ago the Netherlands sported the world’s #2 market share after Norway,
but it was almost all PHEVs due to some tax loophole exploited by fleet managers. The
loophole was closed, EV sales cratered, and the country dropped out of my Top 10. Now they
are back with a vengeance, sales more than doubling to 28k and 5.2% market share, 9/10ths
of them BEVs.

We’re not done with loopholes, however; luxury BEVs enjoyed favorable taxes, expiring at the
end of 2018. So of course the 2018 best-selling EV list is dominated by luxury brands. Now,
hopefully, Netherlands will experience an auto-tax system in line with environmental and
economic sanity, and we’ll see what the country’s “normal” EV market really looks like.

Another thing in Netherland’s favor is its relative leadership role on electric buses. Granted,
that’s a continued abysmal weakness of European automaking and bus purchasing; but
against that weakness, Netherlands almost alone is punching above its weight. Eindhoven-
based VDL makes only 1-2k buses a year, but 10% of them (and rising) are electric; they
sold their 500 th e-Bus last September, continuing to compete with Poland’s Solaris for the
continent’s #1 e-bus making spot. By contrast, Mercedes (oops, have I already mentioned
them?) makes ~30k buses/year around the world, practically none of them electric.

5 th Place: Sweden (tie-3 rd ), 49 points. Claim to fame: despite solid performance, Sweden
drops 1.5 spots. Also, how about some BEVs for a change?

Similarly to 2017, Sweden again increased sales year-over-year by ~1.5x, to 29.k and 7.2%.

Amazingly, that wasn’t enough to hang on to its tie for 3 rd . One reason is only 27% BEV in the
mix, and Volvo’s continued delay in introducing a BEV to the market. Not much else to add.

4 th Place: South Korea (tie-5 th ), 50 points. Claim to fame: Korean automakers continue to
jump ahead in the EV game.

Korea finally broke its two-year tie with Japan, big time. While Japan slid way down, Korean
automakers more than doubled their EV output, from 39k to 95k, and introduced the
midmarket SUVs Hyundai Kona and Kia Niro, each available both as a PHEV and as a 200-
mile BEV. Meanwhile, the Hyundai Ioniq BEV continued to sell well in Europe and Korea.

Consumers didn’t lag behind, doubling EV purchases to 32k and 1.75% share. And battery
maker LG Chem continues to compete with Panasonic-Tesla and BYD for the world’s #1 spot.
On the bus front, Koreans apparently believe in fuel-cells rather than electric. Oh well, see
how that pans out for them; better than diesel in any case.

3 rd place: the United States (tie-3 rd ), 53 points. Claim to fame: welcome to Tesla Country.

EV sales increased dramatically to 361k and 2.1% (exactly China’s 2017 market share), a
75% increase, most of it due to domestic production. Tesla’s near-impossible Model 3 ramp
plans finally started happening for real, and the company still managed to sell nearly 100k of
the S and X worldwide. And thanks to the Gigafactory, the US is increasing its battery-
production score as well. So things look pretty rosy.

Until you look outside of Tesla. Sales of non-Tesla BEVs were actually down 25%, despite
Nissan introducing Gen 2 Leaf in March, and Chevy Bolts offered at deep discounts. Lesser
EV models saw even sharper drops: eGolf was down 3x, Soul EV down 2x. Recall that the
Model 3 was offered for ~$50k or more until near 2018’s end, so ostensibly this was not direct

I think what’s going on is that American consumers have fallen into thinking that EVs are
either Tesla or “a bunch of useless, overpriced golf carts”. It’s not a random thought; much of
US media coverage, and what people write on American EV blogs and comment threads,
suggests this strongly.

The Tesla-first patterns were even stronger on the automaker side. GM just killed its Volt,
reneging on the promise to use its technology in larger vehicles. The party line is that “the
time window for PHEVs has passed; we’re going straight to BEVs”. Forgive me for not buying
it, because sales of Exhibit A for GM’s purported future, the Bolt, were completely flat from
2017 (~28k). Not only did they fail to exploit another full year in the US market with >$10k
price advantage over the Model 3; under 10% of Bolt production went to Europe where it
could have made a killing. So 2018’s only affordable 200-mile BEV in Western markets fell
from the global #10 position in 2017, to below the top 20. This is a rather shocking failure of
leadership. And Ford has essentially killed all its EV production, which was pretty lame to
begin with. They are said to be working on an electric F150; but how long will that take, given
that their only BEV experience is small volumes of the Focus? It is a sad year when Chrysler
is the best-behaved Big Three member. Or put another way, in 2018 Tesla sold 4x as many
EVs as all the Big Three put together.

We are lucky to have Tesla and to see it achieve such high-volume midmarket success. But
judging by the US patterns, some of its success has been zero-sum vs. other EVs. It doesn’t
matter whether it’s intentional or just US consumer silliness and Big Three corruption at play;
the bottom line is dangerous. Tesla (or any other automaker), is never free of the risk of
failure. It is problematic when in the world’s #2 auto market, all the EV eggs are in one basket,
especially when this basket itself is dominated by a single person who’s had a rather shaky
year at the top.

And then there’s the political and incentive environment. For a decade, the straightforward,
relatively generous US Federal incentive has served as an anchor, in particular once
automakers started bundling it into lease deals enabling people to enjoy it regardless of tax
liability. But in 2018 we’ve finally hit against its weird sunset rules, and in a way that actually
hurts the leading American EV producers (Tesla and GM) while sparing foreign automakers.

But instead of fixing this, the White House and its Congress allies want to kill the incentive
completely. Meanwhile, the EPA has been inhabited by oil-owned zombies, who claim we do
not need to conserve oil anymore, and seem willing to undermine California’s ZEV mandates
that drive that state’s unique EV scene.

But with all that said, the Model 3 juggernaut has enough kick-ass energy in it now, to lift the
US even further in 2019. And fortunately, other markets don’t seem to be following US’s
Tesla-or-bust, anti-incentives trend.

2 nd place: Norway (2 nd ), 56 points. Claim to fame: perennial silver medalist gets another one;
some progress on larger vehicles.

Norway’s passenger EV sales approached 50% of market total, with the Leaf winning
general-market #1 for the year. Light-commercial EV sales doubled, but are still under 5% so
the weighted average EV share was 41%, up from 34% in 2017 and 27% in 2016. There’s
some progress on buses, still lots to go.

Norway continues to function as the EV world’s lab on what happens further ahead in the
market transition, but in its overall role in the EV revolution, it is no match to...

1 st place: China (1 st ), 78 points. Claim to fame: a crisp, cool million – actually 1.1 million -
despite yet another regulatory revamp. The sky’s the limit.

No one can catch China now, at least not for a few years. As the intro said, sales easily
crossed 1 million, while EV market share doubled from 2.1% to 4.2% thanks to an ICE-market
volume drop. For the second straight year, the government intervened in the EV market to
improve production quality, this time by raising the bar for subsidies in terms of minimum
range/power. This put a dent in last year’s world-record breaker, the BAIC EC-Series. Its
sales stopped for a few months to get it upgraded, causing it to miss joining the Model 3 in the
six-figure club; it still managed to beat its 2017 performance (as well as narrowly edge the
Leaf for global #2), with 90k sales.

Meanwhile, BAIC has come out with the larger, stronger-spec EU Series, as well as the EX
Series SUV, and they are stealing the EC’s thunder. Despite a late start, both newbies
managed to land in the global Top 20 for 2018. I wonder which of the three will reach an
annual six figures first? Overall, China’s residents bought ~55% of the world’s EVs last year,
spread across many automakers, with BYD rather than BAIC the overall volume leader. Look
at China’s Top 20 list to see how broad and deep the transition has become.

And of course, China still totally determines the world’s EV bus scene. According to Jose it
was same-old same-old in 2018: another year, another ~100,000 new electric buses in China.

Meanwhile, Europe added a mind-boggling 650 (six hundred and fifty) electric buses in 2018,
with a good chunk actually coming from China. That’s not even a rounding error in Chinese

Wrap-up and Tidbits

 For the first time, France is off the list with 39 points. As I have repeatedly warned the
French, their gradual improvement rate is not enough in today’s EV world. They
listened and tried, market share increasing by one-quarter to 2.1%, but still fell short.
Only a major advancement, e.g., doubling of Renault ZOE production, or PSA finally
putting some skin into the game, will bring them back.

 If one splits the US to California vs. all the rest, the “Not-California” part drops out of
the Top 10, while California with 7.8% EV share and Tesla’s production numbers,
shoots past Norway to 2 nd place with 63 points.


  1. Maarten VinkhuyzenMarch 24, 2019

    With PSA launching its offensive, France will be in the upper half next year. France production, in number of models at least, will be second only to China. And probably third after China and Tesla.

    1. There is no chance that France will get Close to Germany in either models, sales from domestic brands or absolute sales within the country.

      Percentage wise and ambition wise they are far behind almost all the others in the top 10. They will have to do more than that to break into the top list, let alone the top half.

      All the European manufacturers and markets are stepping up for the 2020 regulations.

      Which countries would they even get close to displace in the upper half?

    2. France traditionally has had a higher PEV penetration, and especially a much higher BEV penetration. Right now it looks like Germany might be catching up on total PEV penetration (though not on BEVs) -- but I'm not convinced it will last, since AFAIK France still has higher incentives?

      In terms of production, Germany has a shitload of mediocre PHEVs, but zero *good* PHEVs, and hardly any BEVs. This won't be changing in a significant way before 2020.

      While I'm sceptical too about France reaching the upper half, I think they have a very good shot at staying ahead of Germany in 2019.

  2. Assaf,

    How many new Plug-Ins are likely to be sold in China in 2019?


    1. Well, Jose is by far the expert on this one. I have no contacts in China and use mostly his reports :)

    2. It would not surprise me if they would hit 2 million in 2019.

    3. Assaf / Jose / Mikael,

      Could we agree on an annual sales total of more than 1.5 million Plug-In (passenger vehicles) in China in 2019?


    4. If we are talking only of passenger cars, my bet is somewhere between 1.5 to 2 million units.

  3. 1.5M ev + 1.5M LSEVs + 100k bus + 100k truck

  4. On the buses theme topic, youself already gave the answers to your question: Daimler sells 30,000 of them now either diesel, LNG or with some hybridization inputed. They aren't catering that half-thousand electric market yet, because they are in the business to also make money. On the other hand, since Solaris or VDL aren't able to sell 30,000 buses per year, they wisely saw better chances to embrace head-on electric drivetrains than waste their time fitting their chassis with Euro 6 powertrains sourced from Paccar, Volvo or anyone else. Pure business.

  5. China will be the most positive development this year again thanks to their NEV minimum requirements, which pushes all manufacturers to add NEVs.

    Europe will not see any gear change,but 2020 will be a hell of a ride. That's due to the 95g/km coming into place.

    US with Tesla hang over in terms of yoy growth this year and without a stronger policy push it will stay behind Europe in the coming years, not to talk of China.

    My 2c :-)