Friday, March 8, 2019

USA February 2019

Resultado de imagem para tesla model 3 stock

Tesla Model 3 leads softening market

Some 17,200 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, up just 2% YoY, with last month PEV Share reaching 1.4%, the same as the current 2019 PEV share. 

This growth softening has to do with Tesla focusing the Model 3 deliveries in overseas markets, with only 12,250 units being delivered, but expect Tesla to ramp up US deliveries in a all-hands-on-deck March, pulling at the same time this Tesla-addicted PEV market.

Looking elsewhere, the Chevrolet Bolt was #2 last month, with some 1,200 units, allowing it to climb one position, to 4th,  while the Honda Clarity has once again beaten the PHEV competition, remaining in the 2019 runner-up spot.

In a numb stable market, there are a couple of performances that deserve a mention, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climbing one spot, to #18, with its US career being far from the success it experiences across The Pond

On the other hand, the Kia Niro PHEV is slowly (not enough batteries?) swimming upstream, having delivered 505 units, a strong performance that could prelude a Top 10 spot this year.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is now responsible for 47% of the market, while Chevrolet (10%) hangs on to Second Place, with Honda and Toyota (both with 7%) running for the last place of the podium.

Tesla Model 3 & Others

2019 Sales  
Toyota Camry
Honda Accord  
Nissan Altima
Chevrolet Malibu
Ford Fusion

Tesla Model 3


With the Tesla Model 3 selling at a slower pace, the category best sellers gained a significant advantage, leaving the Tesla midsizer in #8, but despite this, the Californian #1 competitor in the Premium midsize segment (Mercedes C-Class) is still behind it, with 9,488 sales.

So, with the Premium midsizer trophy in the bag, the Model 3 will need the new, cheaper, SR version to beat the Camry & Co. 

Tesla Model S & Others

 Mercedes E/CLS-Class 
BMW 5-Series    
Audi A6
Mercedes S-Class
Tesla Model S

Looking at the large premium car category, the Tesla Model S is suffering from the cannibalization effect of the Model 3, having seen its sales drop 13% YoY, falling from the usual 3rd spot to 5th.

This performance helps to explain the recent price reductions, as Tesla had do something to pick up sales of its flagship sedan.

Regarding the Model X, it's even worse as the Tesla nameplate is not even on the Top 10 of the Large Premium SUV category…


  1. I don't think you will see GM/Chevy above 10% share again.

    1. Surely not any time soon. They might have a chance again I guess -- depending on what the competition will be doing by then -- when they start introducing a slew of new models based on their new BEV3 platform starting in 2021...

  2. Yep, so far this year, Tesla doesn’t seem to be resonating with American consumers as Tesla's performance has been weak and only holds because last year's Model 3 build rate was lower than it is although it also now means US Model 3 inventory already suffices for 60 days!
    This month, Model X feels the heat (-50% YoY) and barely stays among peers (LR Range Rover/Sport: 3687 registrations, Audi Q7/Q8: 2865 registrations, Infiniti QX80: 1968 registrations, Porsche Cayenne: 1762 registrations, MB GLS-class: 1587 registrations), while Model S fares even worse (above -70% YoY) with segment challengers aiming flak left, right and center (Lexus GS/ES: 3587 registrations, MB CLS/E-class: 3424 registrations, BMW 6/5-series: 3291 registrations, Audi A7/A6: 1980 registrations). How Tesla will manage survival and endure future life? (servicing all Model 3, provide charging bays for all Tesla customers present and future, manage brand sales and marketing, suport legacy vehicles and troubleshoot any product flaw on customer's hands).
    Last but not least, competitors on the high margin segment barely exist by now (Jaguar I-pace), but how will Tesla fare in the US when Audi arrives (e-tron/e-tron sportback/e-tron GT), Porsche (Taycan series), Rimac C_Two, Pininfarina Battista, Mercedes-Benz (EQS), Piëch Mark Zero, to name just a few, not counting with the high possible offensive coming from Chinese brands (or/and backed by chinese finance)?
    Bumpy ride ahead!

    1. For those unaware, this is just the usual stream of FUD relentlessly paddled by Tesla short sellers, i.e. people betting on the stock price falling, and trying to make it true by running a smear campaign in an attempt to erode investor and customer confidence. There is not a single claim in all this drivel that holds any water.

      *Of course* Q1 deliveries are down more than usual, with the tax incentive change pushing everyone who intended to buy a Tesla, to pull forward their purchase, resulting in a totally expected depression in demand in the near future. Everyone who bought a Tesla this year in the US, only started considering it, and then decided to pull the trigger, within the last two months! There is absolutely no doubt that demand will normalise again over time. I'm actually surprised that deliveries aren't even lower... And in case of Model 3, that's still without the cheapest models, nor the most recent round of price reductions -- and they still aren't offering leasing, either. All in all, I'm confident long-term demand in the US will be on the order of 20,000 average per month, very much in line with original expectations.

      There is no reason to believe that Tesla has any significant inventory in the US right now. The >12,000 they sold this year were more than enough to deplete any excess they might have had before they switched to European/Chinese production around the beginning of the year. And now that they pulled the BIG demand lever, there should be no problem whatsoever filling March production with US orders. Along with most European and Chinese models built so far being delivered in March as well, global March deliveries will be enormous. Q1 deliveries will of course still be weaker than Q4, with Model S and X feeling the pull-forward, while a lot of Model 3 units will be in transit at the end of the quarter -- but the drop won't be nearly as bad as naysayers are suggesting.

      Tesla's balance sheet looks better than ever. No serious observer sees any risk of them going bankrupt any time soon. At this point, it's probably more likely to happen for legacy makers than for Tesla... (And even in the remote case that they *did* go bankrupt: the brand, product lineup, and enthusiastic customer base are way too valuable to just disappear... Worst case they'd get restructured and continue business with new investors -- likely with no more trouble for customers than the GM and Chrysler bankruptcies...)

      As for competition: while truly competitive models from other makers *may* finally arrive in the next couple of years (there still aren't any yet), that doesn't mean they will significantly affect Tesla's sales. In a global market more than doubling every two years, other makers would have to grow sales much faster than the overall market, to actually put a stop to Tesla's growth. Not a single legacy maker has announced plans for growing volumes at such a pace.

      Brining up the C_Two and Battista -- each with a total planned production of all of 150 units -- as Tesla competition is so ridiculous, it's not even funny... Just shows how desperately these FUDsters are grasping for straws. For a fun glimpse at all the "Tesla is doomed" proclamations they made over the years, I suggest browsing . There is absolutely no reason to believe that their current proclamations are any more valid.

  3. what sources are you using? Tesla don’t give out number for each month and not each country separately wish is why the numbers is estimated. If you look at EV-sales estimation from one year ago you see that Model X improved while Model S whent down little. Total Model S plus X for this year was 2000 cars while last year was 1900. A fall but not even close to the numbers you are writing.

  4. The numbers clearly show, that Tesla cannot enter the mass market, albeit it starts to dominating the premium market. However, it is clear as well that Tesla is cannibalizing Model X and Model S sales.

    1. The numbers don't show any of this. Model X actually went *up* YoY. And Model 3 posted a respectable result in the mainstream market even during the off-months, while demand was depressed because of the tax-related pull-forward, and while the affordable variants still weren't available.

  5. Maarten VinkhuyzenMarch 09, 2019

    Without the Model 3 there is actually a drop in sales.
    To have a basic understanding of the USA market, I am afraid we need statistics excluding Tesla and splitting the market in California and the rest.

    I am afraid that what we will see in that case will be contrary to what we see in Europe, China and the rest of the world.
    No growing markets, but a market in decline.

    What is happening in the USA.

    1. Just leaving out the Model 3 wouldn't paint the whole picture either, as presumably some people would have bought over EVs if this one wasn't available...

      Still, Model 3 clearly broadens the total market; and I agree that results without it would be very depressing :-(

      Note though that other markets are also often stagnant, unless incentives change, or desirable new models get introduced...

    2. Good idea, the next edition will mention that metric (US market without Tesla).