Wednesday, May 13, 2020

Norway April 2020

Resultado de imagem para audi e-tron Norway\

Audi e-Tron reigns supreme

In a market less severely impacted by the current pandemic than others, with the overall market dropping just 34% YoY, in April, plugins represented 70% of the overall Norwegian market, with BEVs alone representing 50% of the total sales, in line with the 2020 PEV share of 70% (50% BEV).

And to think the forecast i made for Norway (66% share in 2020) was pretty bold...Maybe now we can aim for 75% share this year?

Looking at April model sales by fuel, we have a 100% BEV Top 5, with the best unplugged model showing up only in #7 (Skoda Octavia).

The Audi e-Tron won another Best Seller award, its 4th in a row, with the VW e-Golf in 2nd place, with 498 deliveries, securing a 1-2 win for the VW Group, while the surprise of the month is the Mercedes EQC finishing the month in #5, with a record 243 registrations, so it seems the electric Mercedes ramp-up is (finally!) allowing the German brand to deliver units in decent volumes.

Audi e-Tron
VW e-Golf
Nissan Leaf
Hyundai Kona EV
Mercedes EQC

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the podium remained the same, while below it, there was one significant change, with the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV climbing one spot, to #5, while the #7 Renault Zoe and #8 VW e-Golf can benefit from the lack of inventory from the #6 Tesla Model 3, to surpass the Californian in May.

The Kia Soul EV jumped three positions, to #11, and could rise even further in the coming months.

In the unplugged category, the highest standing is now the Toyota Yaris Hybrid, in #9, while the only pure ICE model here is the #16 Skoda Octavia, which, by the way, is said to receive a PHEV version soon, so in the near future, we will see a fully electrified Top 20 in Norway..

Back to plugins, in April we have two new entries at the bottom of the Top 20, with the refreshed VW e-Up! in #20, with the three Bratislava clones (e-Up, Citigo EV, e-Mii) registering 1.505 units in total this year, which would place them in #5 overall in 2020. Not bad, eh?

The Mercedes EQC also joined the Top 20, in #19, and hopes to climb further up, profiting from the production ramp up in the coming months.

Outside the Top 20, we have a few models shining, like the VW Passat GTE, registering 135 units, a new year best, the new Ford Kuga PHEV is having a promising start, with 109 deliveries in April, while the Porsche Taycan continues its slow, but steady, rise, having registered a record 121 units last month.

Looking at the overall manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen and Audi share the leadership, both with 12% share, with the #3 Toyota (9%) keeping BMW (7%), Volvo (6%), Hyundai (6%) and Skoda (6%) at bay.


  1. If the future of EV car markets look like this, it's pretty good news for the VW AG

    1. I'd be surprised if it turns out differently... Despite many years of dawdling in the past, right now VW clearly seems the most committed of all the legacy makers.

  2. #trufflenodemand

    Jose, what do you expect it might become the sales performances for the ZS EV, Cooper Se and Taycan?

    1. The ZS could get a Top 20 spot, once its deliveries reach cruise speed, the Mini EV is a question mark, it is a proper hot hatch and should move a significant amount of units, but will it be able to stay in the Top 20? Mmmm...

      As for the Taycan, once the production ramp up is done, it could be a strong candidate for Best Seller in its size category.

    2. Taycan at some point was reported to have 600 reservations in Norway. Assuming a similar reservations-to-regular-sales ratio as Tesla, we should expect to see several hundred sales per year.

      The others we can only guess.

      I'd expect the Mini to end up at a roughly similar level to what the i3 has seen in the past, given similar segment, quite a bit lower price, and more "traditional" look, but also slightly worse specs, and much more (often superior) competition...

      No idea about the MG. How competitive are the specs/price? How willing are customers to accept a (practically speaking) new, and mostly Chinese brand?...

    3. The ZS EV might have chances to achieve significant volumes, with comparable performances to both Kia's Soul and Niro. His price/features are competitive and I don't see how being a chinese-owned brand can hinder this, looks like people in Europe tend to buy what suits them, no matter they are Korean, Japanese, American or not.

      I expect the Taycan range to be a strong contender for leading his segment, it much depends on the amount of competitors (e-tron GT, EQE, among others).

      I don't expect the Cooper Se to be able to mimic the i3 career achieved in Norway (more than 25000 units sold). On the other hand, being able to consistently achieve 2000 sales annually, might be feasible.

    4. The ZS EV doesn't offer anywhere near the same range and performance as the 62 kWh Kias. It's comparable to the 39 kWh Kias -- but I'm not sure there is actually any market where the 39 kWh Kias and the ZS EV are both available...

      This also means that we can't directly compare prices: but extrapolating from different markets, it seems they are in roughly a similar price range -- which makes the MG a fairly difficult sale I believe.

      In my experience, most Europeans *do* very much care about brands -- and while a few Chinese brands in specific areas are beginning to make in-roads (such as Huawei smartphones), for the most part Chinese brands are still associated with cheap junk. With expensive, long-lived purchases like cars, consumers are particularly conservative to accept new brands specifically, and new origins in general. MG would have to offer *significantly* better pricing/specs to appeal to anyone but a minority of people who are drawn to non-mainstream brands on principle...

    5. @Kiwi: I agree that the Mini should end close to 2k/year, if it gets close to 4k, it would already be an achievement!

      @Antrik: I wonder how Europeans would react to NIO...

    6. Nio is an interesting case... But I'm not very optimistic.

      As far as I can see, Nio seems to be betting on viral marketing based on "experience" or "vision" or other non-tangible nonsense, more than on tangible strengths. Right now it's seeing some limited success due to unique positioning: offering mid-priced products that are much cheaper (in China) than Tesla's high-end models, yet more capable than mainstream Chinese offerings. However, I think this formula will be totally overthrown with the coming introduction of other entrants in a similar space, such as the Model Y, Mach E, Polestar; as well as increasing higher-end aspirations from established brands such as BYD. Right now it looks like this will leave Nio with nothing but viral marketing -- which seems like a dead-end: good enough to maintain a small cult following, but unlikely to grow the following without tangible benefits to support it.

      Perhaps the most relevant comparison are OnePlus smartphones: a Chinese brand that went quickly from nowhere to some sort of international relevance, through very successful viral marketing. But that was enabled by offering a product that was very close in technology to the top models of established brands, at a *significantly* lower price.

      (Which was made possible by being a new sub-brand of a fairly large established Chinese maker -- and more generally, the fact that China is already the world base for pretty much all smartphone manufacturing. This in turn depends on the fact that international shipping costs are insignificant for smartphones, so they can be made anywhere in the world without penalty; and also the fact that smartphone mass manufacturing seems to be much easier to master than car mass manufacturing...)

      And of course OnePlus was helped by the fact that people are more willing to take a risk on a $300 smartphone, that is expected to change hands after about two years for free or a symbolic price, and reach end-of-live after maybe four, than a > $50,000 car that is expected to change hands after some seven years for a still significant price, and reach end-of-live after some 15 - 20...

      Nio doesn't have any of these advantages. And even OnePlus, despite all the things in their favour, is nevertheless just a tiny niche player compared to the major brands. Where would that leave Nio?...

      If any Chinese makers are to break into global markets in the foreseeable future, I believe it would be the established players, like BYD, SAIC, or Geely. But the window of opportunity might to be closing for these as well, as right now, international makers seem to be closing the gap in EV pricing and product range quicker than Chinese makers are closing the gap in technology and quality...

  3. Jose,

    Do you think that the BYD Tang EV will be able to grab a position in the top-20 list in Norway in 2020?

    1. Depends. Price matters :)

    2. I don't think we will get any idea about that until European reviews start showing up, once they actually introduce it... Thus far, I don't believe anyone outside China really knows how well it stacks up against established makers.

      And of course pricing is a big question mark... When BYD originally attempted to introduce the e6 internationally years ago, pricing made it a complete no-starter.

  4. AnonymousMay 13, 2020

    From the posted data, carmaker standings are:

    1st Volkswagen Group with 8069 vehicles
    2nd Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance with 4189 vehicles
    3rd Kia-Hyundai with 2880 vehicles
    4th Tesla with 1260 vehicles
    5th BMW Group with 1041 vehicles

  5. Maarten VinkhuyzenMay 14, 2020

    Having the VW-triplets as a single model in the listings, not only in Norway, but in all of Europe, would make the strength of them more visible.
    Also because many customers see them as the same model in different trim versions.

    The non-plug models still sold in Germany should be counted separately.

    Give the individual brand numbers in the text, like you are now putting the combined numbers in the text.
    What do you think?

    1. Good idea, i have done it in the past, with the Chevrolet Volt/Opel Ampera.

      Will start next month, for consistency sake.

    2. Doing this would be opening Pandora's box, since there are many other badge-engineered models in the ranking, both from VW and from other makers -- but in some cases, the lines between badge-engineered and merely sharing a platform become rather blurry, especially when crossing company boundaries...

    3. It makes more sense for Volt/Ampera I guess, since these were never sold in the same market... Similar to Opel Corsa vs. Vauxhall Corsa. On the other hand, cases like Up!/Mii/Citigo, i-MiEV/C-Zero/iOn, Golf/A3, Corsa/208, Passat/Superb, DS 3 Crossback/2008/Mokka X, DS 7 Crossback/3008/Grandland X, Taycan/e-tron GT, ID.3/el-Born, ID.4/Q4/Enyaq, Aion S/iA5, Ei5/Velite 6, or UX300/C-HR/Izoa, are all quite a different story.

    4. Good points, Antrik.

      Maarten and Antrik, i will think about this, and next month i hope to find a solution to this.

  6. Maarten VinkhuyzenMay 14, 2020

    I am happy to see the first country to have an all energy sources listing.
    No longer only for the EV niche market, but now the main market including the FF niches. :-)

    Who will be #2 to get such a list?

    1. One of these three: Netherlands, Sweden or Iceland.