Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Sweden December 2020


VW ID.3 Shines in Record month (49% Share!)

The local plugin market ended the year on fire, jumping 251% YoY, to an amazing 16.929 registrations, its second third 4th record performance in a row, with last month scoring a record 49% share for plugins (19% BEV), ending the 2020 PEV share at 32% (10% BEV), a significant jump over the 11% of 2019, and well above my prediction for this year ("North of 20% share"). 

This time both it was BEVs outpacing PHEVs, with these last ones jumping 222% in December, to 10.337 units, while BEVs (+310%!) had 6.592 registrations, with the plugin split in this year sales ending at 30% for BEVs and 70% PHEVs, with pure electrics dropping 9% regarding 2019, when they had 39% share. 

With plugin hybrids representing over 20% of the total market, maybe now's the time to reduce incentives for PHEVs? Another way, would be to set a minimum electric range for a PHEV to be eligible for subsidies...What do you think?

Looking at the remaining fuel sales in December, HEVs clocked 9% share, versus 5% a year ago, while petrol lost 26% market share(!), now at 24% (it was 50% 12 months ago), while diesel was down 15% in share, to just 18%.  

As such, with PHEVs having 30% of the total sales in December, plugin hybrids were the most popular drivetrain last month, a good sign for the year ahead, which begs the question: At this pace, will diesel will be död by 2022 and petrol in 2023?

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the VW ID.3 stole the show, with an all-time record for a single plugin model of 2.564 registrations in one month, winning not only the PEV Best Seller trophy, but also the leader status in the overall market!

But it wasn't the only BEV to shine, as the Tesla Model 3 ended the month in 3rd, thanks to the expected end-of-quarter high tide

With Volvo enjoying some deserved Jul holidays, after all, it had already complied with the EU's CO2 rules before December, it was time for Kia to shine, with two models in the Top 5, with the Kia Ceed PHEV beating its own record by delivering 636 units, while its stablemate Niro PHEV was #5, with 591 units.

VW ID.3 
Volvo XC60 PHEV
Tesla Model 3
Kia Ceed PHEV
Kia Niro PHEV

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with Volvo doing a 1-2 win, with the Volvo S/V60 twins winning their first Best Seller title, while their higher riding sibling XC60 PHEV took Silver.

Interestingly, in 2019 the Swedish maker didn't had any model in podium...The 3 times winner (2016/17/18) VW Passat GTE also returned to the podium in 2020, after having dropped to #6 in 2019.

On the other hand, last year Best Seller, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, ended this year race in 9th...Yep, that's disruption happening.

In the last stage of the 2020 race, the Climber of the Month was the VW ID.3, that shooted 12 spots, from #17 to #5, thanks to a Tesla-like peak in December of 2.564 units, allowing it to displace the Tesla Model 3 from the Best Selling BEV throne, something few could predict a month ago.

On the second half of the table we have the BMW 330e climbing two positions, to #13, mostly thanks to the new Touring (station wagon) body, a must if you want to succeed in wagon-loving Sweden, while the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins recovered the Best Selling full-size trophy in December, after a surprisingly slow month from the Audi e-Tron (has its demand peaked in Sweden?).

The small car category was far less interesting, with the Renault Zoe retaining its hold on the category, despite a significant increase in the number of competitors. 

The Hyundai Kona EV climbed to #18, thanks to a record 368 deliveries, and the
 good news on the BEV side haven't ended there, as the #17 Nissan Leaf registered its best result in 2 years, with 332 units, most of them being of the 62 kWh version, proving once again that deep discounts do help to move metal...

In December we received a fresh face in the table, with the Toyota RAV4 PHEV climbing to #20, thanks to a record 460 deliveries, and one wonders how high will the plugin Toyota rise in 2021. A Top 10 spot seems like a given, but can it go above it?

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the ramp up of Mercedes, with 4 models (E300e/de - 446 units; GLA250e - 106; EQC - 140; GLE350e/de - 246) scoring record deliveries, with the first of them ending the year in #21, while the last two have beaten their personal best by the #4th time in a row...#MercedesIsRising

But it's not only about the German maker, as there were other models shining, like the BMW X3 PHEV (317 units), or the Renault Captur PHEV (182), while the fresh Volvo XC40 EV had 177 deliveries last month.

Another long awaited model is the Skoda Octavia PHEV, that had 259 units in its first full sales month, and should become a strong candidate for a Top 20 spot in 2021, just like its Spaniard cousin, the recent Seat Leon PHEV, that is also running three-digit scores in its first months on the market.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo won the title, with 21% share (down 2%), thanks to the success of its PHEV lineup, while the two times winner (2018 & 19) Kia (18%, up 1%) this time had to settle with Silver, and the rising Volkswagen (15%, up 1%) closed the podium, well ahead of Tesla (6%, up 1%).


  1. A remarkable month and year!

    50% PEV market share is definitely possible for 2021 with hopefully at least a 50/50 split BEV / PHEV now that there are further volume BEVs available.

    I hope we also start seeing real competition on the price front. Geely's BEV line up is good, but still expensive. Are they going to watch the ID.3, ID.4, Skoda Enyaqs eat their lunch or will they bring lower priced variants in volume? The 2021 title will be fought between Geely and VAG and at this point I think it's most interesting to watch overall market shares vs just PEV. Can the one or the other eat into ICE shares? That is the big question now.

    Tesla will surely follow with price cuts, like in Norway and China to save volumes. They dropped like a stone from 14% market share to 6%, decreasing volume in a market growing 100%+ yoy.

    1. As far as I'm aware, apart from exchange rate adjustments (both up and down), Tesla hasn't changed European Model 3 prices at all last year -- no "saving volumes". Apart from some occasional demand micro-management (mostly in the US), Tesla usually only adjusts prices of their mainstream models when production costs change. Don't expect any major price reductions in Europe until local production begins...

      And BTW, volumes dropping only slightly in the second year on the market (after the initial peak), and during a pandemic at that, is not a concern at all. Nor is the fact that the total of all others EVs grew, when most of the growth comes from new models (other existing BEVs didn't change all that much), along with mostly PHEVs profiting from taxation changes. When Tesla introduces another model next year, it will also see their market grow...

  2. Damn 2500+ sales are impressive for a BEV especially in PHEV loving sweden. Adding the 8953 sales in NO+SP+NL and we are already at 40k+ in 2020 for the ID.3 with markets like Germany, UK and France still missing.

  3. Hello Jose,

    "...maybe now's the time to reduce incentives for PHEVs? Another way, would be to set a minimum electric range for a PHEV to be eligible for subsidies...What do you think?"

    In my opinion the reduction of PHEV incentives should be made step by step (e.g. 2022 - PHEVs with range < 50 km are exempt from incentives and then each year a step of 25 or 50 km).

    Additionally a range of 200 km or higher is quite sufficient for Class A and Class B cars to charge them once a week as they are used as city cars. Models running on diesel/petrol for these cars from all producers should be banned as a start. For example for the EU it could look like this:
    2023 - ban of Class A diesel cars
    2024 - ban of Class B diesel cars
    2025 - ban of Class A petrol cars
    2026 - ban of Class B petrol cars
    2028 - ban of Class A PHEVs
    2030 - ban of Class B PHEVs
    In the mean time I expect the technology to improve significantly (price of batteries, density, speed of charging, charging network) which would allow to follow the same pattern for the cars of Class C or higher which are used by their owners for longer trips.

    1. Just limit the maximum speed of PHEVs to 80km/h if the battery is not charged.

      Problem solved!

    2. That wouldn't solve anything. It wouldn't affect city driving at all; while it would make PHEVs completely useless for longer trips -- which is ostensibly their sole justification...

    3. @antrik

      Of course it would work.
      If you require 1 time charging per 1000km, otherwise speed limit.

    4. Well, that would make them less useless... But still wouldn't meaningfully change commuter charging behaviour.

      A much more reasonable and effective measure is to force EV-only driving in cities -- which many models are already enabled to do, in preparation for upcoming combustion car bans in some cities...

  4. A wonderful sight awaits us in 2021.PHEV 30%,BEV 70.Dreaming isn't harmful

  5. Huge dive for Tesla in Sweden!

    2020 Tesla sales: total 4921 vehicles, of which 893 Model S, 497 Model X and 3531 Model 3
    2019 Tesla sales: total 6199 vehicles, of which 1355 Model S, 628 Model X and 4216 Model 3
    2018 Tesla sales: total 1228 vehicles, of which 883 Model S and 345 Model X
    2017 Tesla sales: total 1281 vehicles, of which 800 Model S and 481 Model X
    2016 Tesla sales: total 1125 vehicles, of which 837 Model S and 288 Model X
    2015 Tesla sales: 996 Model S

    1. ups & downs are common in market place. All these new incentives put in place were meant to favor european automakers. Even Tesla sales in china went down in 2019, when giga-shanghai started, you know what happened. Same will happen when giga-berlin opens up.

  6. Interestingly the sales from Netherland in December show already the coming massive changes in the structure of sales: VW ID3 over 6000 and ID4 over 2000 versus just 3800 for Tesla. The numbers in January will show if Tesla can keep its leadership position, yet the writing is on the wall that Tesla needs substantial cost and technological improvements to keep its position.

    1. Dude: sales of ID.3, ID.4 and this 49% share are coming at the expense of petrol/diesel vehicles.
      If not for Tesla, VW would not have launched this whole MEB architecture.
      3.800 sales of Tesla is still good in a small country like NL.
      Substantial cut in cost will come when Giga Berlin starts production. Will result in shipping and import duty.

    2. New models always peak in the Netherlands before the first incentives step-down -- just like the Model 3 did the previous year. In fact, if anything, VW should have seen a much larger peak.

      And January of course will show absolutely nothing regarding Tesla...

  7. I thought id.4 deliveries will start in December. But no sign of those in Norway or Sweeden.

    1. They already delivered ~2500 in NL and started to deliver in the US too if I'm not mistaken.

    2. It seems to have been a Netherlands-exclusive thing, to take advantage of the massive end of year rush that market experiences.

  8. Production of id.4 started around 20th August. How many time does VW needs to deliver them? Tesla started Y production in about December. And they are already delivering it.

  9. As Sweden already has an emissions-based bonus/malus system, I don't think they fundamentally need to change their incentives structure. What they *do* need to do is to base it on realistic fleet-average emissions, rather than fantasy figures based on 2x - 4x off electric driving assumptions...

  10. Despite being based on the same platform, I wouldn't exactly call the hatchback Leon a cousin of the sedan/estate Octavia...

    1. Different targets, but the truth is that both share the same platform, tech, etc.

      So i will continue to consider them related.

  11. Swedes open Dec with a bang. Wow 16.929 with 49% share. After Norway, Sweden, who is going to be next?
    Finland, Denmark, Netherlands?
    I wish those Americans who have friends & relatives in Scandanavia learn all this and tell this to other Americans.
    Strong $ and cheap imports is what is fuelling inefficiency and gas guzzling.
    Finally ID.3 hitting its stride, I hope it will cross 10.000 mark when other countries tally comes in.
    I wish Tesla makes Model 3 in Giga Berlin, so that shipping, import taxes are removed and it becomes more economic.

    1. You forgot Iceland. Finland and Denmark on the other hand are rather meh...

  12. At the end of 2020-11, light duty (4-wheeled) PEV sales stood at 9.986.203 which is 13.797 short of magic 10 million mark. With this 16.929 sales from Sweden; that mark has been hit. Celebrate !!!
    Thanks to Team ev-sales-blogspot and Jose Pontes, I could collect all these # for my personal interest and to share with the (global) community.

    Next target: BEVs hitting 10 million.
    Global full hybrid sales will be well over 20 million. PEVs will take quite some time to catch up to full hybrids. Will the full hybrids migrate towards plugin hybrids. Will the fuelcell vehicles join the race. Lets see. FCEVs are still better than the dirty petrol/diesel.

    1. Whether hydrogen vehicles are better, depends on what you are looking at, and where the fuel is coming from: avoiding tailpipe emissions is of course a big plus -- but if the hydrogen comes from methane reforming, it can actually be worse in terms of CO2 than a comparable combustion car...

  13. Anti-EV toyota is dragging its feet to sell plugin RAV-4, why not they sell plugin Prius also.
    After all, europeans love hatches. launched mirai gen-2 in dec, lets see how many they can sell.
    Pro-diesel benz wants to include diesel in all plugins. lets see how many diesel plugins can be sold and whether it even hits 100.000 mark.
    I wonder whether making a car in 2 body styles (saloon/estate) with petrol, plugin hybrid variations fetch them the ROI in a world which is fast moving towards crossovers.
    Meanwhile GM is running comedy show by claiming that they have plan to dethrone Tesla.
    Their earlier plan is to sell 320.000 PEVs by 2025. Tesla sold 365.000 in 2019 and 499.550 in 2020.

    1. For big vehicle a diesel PHEV is best for CO2 reduction.
      Only a serial hybrid range extender would be better.

    2. BEV is best for CO2 reduction in virtually all situations. Anyone claiming otherwise is lying, or at least has been mislead by incorrect data.

    3. @antrik
      No one can really tell right now because we do not know how many kilometers a BEV will be driven until it is scrapped.
      ICE are scrapped after 16 to 25 years.
      We only have estimations after how many km it may brake even with an ice.
      For imported cars we must include the shipping CO2.
      Battery manufacturing spends 1 Ton CO2 for each 10kwh of battery size.
      What if battery needs to be replaced?

      The smaller the battery, the more CO2 friendly the BEV. That's for sure.

    4. No, smaller batteries aren't really more climate-friendly: everything else being equal, a larger battery lasts proportionally longer -- so the lifetime result is the same. Only real concern is that larger batteries are heavier, thus somewhat reducing efficiency -- but that's relatively minor. And with longer-lasting batteries, there is good chance that the entire vehicle will be used longer, thus making up for the lower efficiency as well.

      Also, we know enough by now to say with confidence that any well-built BEV will last a lot longer than an equivalent combustion car.

      As for emissions from battery production: while I don't have specific figures memorised, I do know that most of the figures being thrown around simply do not match reality of modern battery mass-production. (Not to mention Tesla's upcoming dry electrode coating process making it a lot better still...)

      Studies finding EVs to be worse than combustion cars are pretty much universally using these incorrect figures for battery production emissions -- and that's only one of the mistakes they generally make. They also usually assume battery lives several times shorter than current state of the art; usually use advertised fuel consumption figures, instead of much higher real-world consumption; often do not account for well-to-tank emissions of extracting, processing, and delivering fossil fuels; and usually ignore the effect of electricity generation getting progressively cleaner over the lifetime of an EV.

    5. Don't hold your breath: the cheerleader will keep rejecting any facts in a narrative that calls into question fan-beliefs.

      written by Looney Tunes

  14. Expecting ID.3 to climb from #5 to #1 next month along with ID.4 and Model Y in top-5. BEVs will send a strong message to PHEVs. I am sure automakers must be scratching their heads whether to choose more BEV or PHEV.

    At least, they should dump petrol/diesel in favor for full hybrids while allocating more towards PHEV & BEV.

  15. #synopsis
    Of the 34302 vehicles registered in December (market down 28.7%), 16929 (49.3%) were PEV.
    The leading powertrain was plug-in hybrids (30.1%) with 10337 units, followed by gasoline vehicles (23.6%) with 8100 units, electric (19.2%) with 6592 units, diesel (17.5%) with 6017 units, hybrids (8.8%) with 3022 units, and the remaining 234 units
    being alternative fuel powertrains (0.7%).
    For the whole year, gasoline vehicles were 35.2% of the market (-11%), followed by plug-in hybrids with 22.6% (+15.6%),
    diesel with 21.5% (-11.9%), hybrids with 9.9% (+2.8%), electric with 9.6% (+5.2%) and alternative fuels with 1.2% (-0.8%).

    64222 vehicles (68.4%) from the total registered 93938 PEVs, capture the PEV Top20 positions, were the leading carmakers
    are Volvo Car (21.5%) with 20150 units, followed by Kia-Hyundai (16.5%) with 15505 units and the VW group (15.4%) with 14445 units that incidentally delivered both best sellers PHEV (Passat GTE) and BEV (ID.3).

  16. Hi Jose
    The revised final figures are a bit higher that this report, totaling 94,077 plug-in cars. Check here:https://www.bilsweden.se/storage/5168D9529687B6326A0ED53E91974F769CAF9E811A3FD5AD50BFCCC8F06C440B/057d93be48eb4f589866c8222bb23b89/pdf/media/49deb2c99aa4471fa403fe1d6e6629a7/PressRel%20med%20tabeller%20och%20diagram_dec2020DEF.pdf

  17. Jose, were you fully convinced that the Model 3 would have any chances for running after #1 in Sweden for 2020?
    Looking at the yearly numbers, it was always doing a shitty show, never moving upper than 4th position, more likey a 6th seat warmer, closing the year in 7th. What is that, tin medallist? 2020 is going to be a never-forget year for Tesla in Sweden.

    written by Looney Tunes