Monday, April 19, 2021

Germany March 2021



Tesla Model 3 wins in March, but Volkswagen leads the way 

The German plugin market scored over 65,000 units last month, with both technologies rising fast, particularly plugin hybrids (+191% for BEVs and +278% YoY for PHEVs), with last month plugin share ending at 23% (10% BEV), pulling slightly up the yearly tally, to 22% (9.9% BEV), so this market sits firmly in The Disruption Zone.

And in a rebounding overall market (+36% YoY), petrol failed (+7% YoY) to profit from it, while diesel is helplessly in a hell hole (-5%), with its sales continuing to fall, even in the context of a recovering market.




Looking at last month Best Sellers, in March we had a surprise winner, with the Tesla Model 3 beating its Volkswagen arch-rival, the... e-Up! Wait, what?!?

Yep, by registering 3,599 units in March, its second record performance in a row(!), the veteran model (VW's city car is on the market for 10 years now, and its EV version exists since 2013), not only put to shame its larger siblings, namely the #5 VW ID.3, but was close (it ended just 100 units behind) from stealing the thunder from a record-setting Tesla Model 3...

Prost for the tiny EV, which is still my favorite VW, as it is the closest we have from the original VW Beetle concept: Cheap, no-frills and reliable transportation for das Volk.

In the 3rd spot we have another surprise, with the Hyundai Kona EV returning to form, thanks to a record 3,237 registrations, banking on its competitive km range per euro score to win its first monthly podium seat since November.

Below the podium Top Sellers, the 4th place went to another record setting Volkswagen, with the new Golf PHEV winning the Best Seller award in the PHEV category, with 2,792 units, while last year Best Seller, the Renault Zoe, had to settle with an 8th spot, with the French hatchback failing to follow the pace of the Model 3 and the VW armada that followed it.

The Mini Cooper EV jumped to 9th, thanks to a record 1,674 deliveries, thus making 7 BEVs in the in the Top 9, but below it, it's a sea of PHEVs, with the only exceptions being the #16 BMW i3, which reflects one if the current market trends, while the BEV market is concentrated (almost literally) in half a dozen models, the models choice in the plugin hybrid field is far greater and spanning through much a wider type of customers and needs, leading to a more diversified market.

One example is the fact that the VW Golf PHEVs cousin models are all present in the Top 20 (Audi A3 in #12, Seat Leon PHEV in #18 and Skoda Octavia in #19), while the VW ID.3 MEB platform siblings are still either in different stages of production ramp-up (VW ID.4 and Skoda Enyaq), just being presented (Audi Q4 e-Tron) or still under wraps (Seat/Cupra El-Born), and this exercise can be replicated in a number of other OEMs, true BEV takeover of the market will only be possible when pure-electric model choice is nearly as complete as PHEV or ICE models. No one-size-fits all recipe will work, wether some people like it or not.

Outside this Top 20, a mention to the continuous ramp-up of the Fiat 500e, now at 748 units, while two other models are also ramping up their deliveries, with the Opel Mokka EV now at 526 units, while the VW Tiguan PHEV had 548 deliveries.
  



Regarding the 2021 table, we now have the tiny VW e-Up on top, with a sizeable distance (1,229 units) over the rising Tesla Model 3, relegating the previous leader, the VW ID.3, to 3rd. We were expecting more, ID.3...

Another model on the rise was the Hyundai Kona EV, up 2 spots, to 4th, while the VW Passat PHEV climbed to #6, thus making 4 VW's in the Top 6.

On the second half of the table, the Mercedes E300e/de jumped three spots, to #11, and is now the only full size model in the table. 

Highlighting the good moment of the VW Group, besides the Volkswagen models in the Top 20, we should mention the Audi A3 PHEV jumping from #20 to #15 last month, all while their Czech and Spanish cousins joined the table, with the Skoda Octavia PHEV jumping to #18, and the Seat Leon PHEV to #20.

But these weren't the only new faces on the table, as the Mercedes A250e re-joined the table,in #16, while the Mini Cooper EV slalomed its way through a forest of PHEVs to end the month in #17. 

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (18%, down 1%) is clearly leading its home market, followed by Mercedes (11%, up 1%) and BMW (9%), while #4 Audi (7%, down 1%) is not too far away.

Further behind, Hyundai and Renault, both with 5% share, seem unable to threaten the grip that the local heroes have on the German plugin market. 


38 comments:

  1. You should list sales by manufacturer, not just by model.

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    1. Why not both?

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    2. Do you understand the meaning of the word 'just'? Is English your first language?

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  2. Hi Jose,

    Thank you for putting together these detailed EV sales reports. I have been following them for years and every morning the highlight of my day is to find a new report from you.

    Lately I have been noticing that the reports are getting fewer and fewer each month, just as the EV market is finally getting exciting, at least in Europe. Is that because the data is harder to come by or are you getting too busy or burned out?

    Doing the research and putting together these reports must take countless hours. It's pretty much a full-time job and I can't blame you for not finding the time for it or getting sick of doing it.

    Do you have anyone helping you with this? If not why not ask your regular readers on this site to give you a hand? If you could find a few volunteers to do the research and update the report on one or several countries I imagine it would be a great help to you. All you would have to do is proof read it and publish it.

    I am putting my money where my mouth is and offering my help on at least one country. Please let me know if you want to take me up on this offer.

    And I appeal to any other readers to offer your help as well. This is a pivotal time in the transition to EVs and we need this service. Jose has carried this torch alone for far too long. Let's step up and show our appreciation for his work by offering to help him out. Many hands make light work.

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    1. as the # of models increase and with many phev being a variant of existing ice model, it may be very difficult to sift and produce these #. especially in america, automakers dont even break out sales between the ice and fhev and phev variant. also some automakers report only on quarterly basis.

      i am expecting this to narrow down to just 4 entities.
      world, europe, china, germany. thats enough because these 4 do all the load.

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    2. Thanks for the comment +1

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  3. It's even more fun when you count all the Volkswagen Group sales: VW brand, Audi, Porsche, Skoda and Seat accounted for nearly 1/3rd of the BEV sales in Germany in Q1 2021.

    Not sure how big a share of all plug-ins, but Volkswagen + Audi sum up to 25% of the plug-in market and 29% of the BEVs, so it's probably around 28%.

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  4. I'm not sure what's more crazy: that Model 3 edged out ID.3, or that e-Up! is ahead of both...

    Though it's all but certain that neither will hold as the year progresses, with ID.3 presumably ramping deliveries in earnest.

    (Will be interesting to see though whether e-Up! can stay ahead of Model 3...)

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    1. That's why i highlighted the e-Up performance... :-)

      Although unexpected, the Model 3 beating the ID.3 is not much of a surprise, but the fact that the veteran e-Up can beat both of them...Now, that's news!

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  5. VW up sales according to the 'Bundesamt fuer Kraftfahrzeuge' at 4988 in March. What is the reason for the difference?

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    1. VW Up vs. VW e-Up!?

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    2. The data José uses comes directly from KBA (Federal Motor Vehicle Office of Germany). This is good list of links https://open-ev-charts.org/#electric-sales:DE:all-time:all-models:sources

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    3. e-Up! only, or all Up! variants?...

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    4. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 20, 2021

      IN the FZ10 report there is a detail for all different "antrieb" in the market.
      Total VW-Up! is 4,933 of which 3,599 did have a battery only powertrain.

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    5. 73% of VW UP sales were electric.
      That's something to celebrate!

      Hope they will be able to get the sales price down to gasoline version without incentives.

      Should not be difficult: Take a gasoline version, strip it of ICE components, add something like Hong Guang Mini EV EV components.

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    6. The e-Up! will never be anywhere close to the price of gasoline variants. Not even the current price is sustainable beyond meeting emission mandates.

      A future model based on something like MEB might come somewhat close in a couple of years, once EV sales (across the model range, not only for one model) reach a similar scale as combustion car sales.

      Just putting in HongGuang-like components won't work, because a) this car is way too pricey (regardless of power train) to get away with such specs; and b) there is no way it would reach a similar scale in the foreseeable future.

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    7. @antrik

      Don't forget that at the moment the German Government is super generous with their incentives...that makes a HUGE difference, with this car.

      EVs that are below 40.000€ (base price) get 9.000€ bonus. That brings the base price down from 20k to 11k !!!

      VW is not in a bad situation with the e-Up, there is more demand than there is supply, if they would loose too much money they have a bit of room for price adjustments.

      I think producing the car for 20k is profitable and selling it for a bit more than 10k is working fantastically well, as long as the government is not changing the incentives, the e-up is even a real cash cow for VW... Without the incentives most potential e-up buyers would simply buy a regular up, so yes VW would stop selling the car.

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    8. They can't just suddenly increase the price by 5000 Euro or more. That's not how traditional auto brands operate. They could raise the price slightly, with a new model year, that offers a bunch of minor improvements -- but nothing that would make people feel a 5000 Euro increase would be justified. So instead, they keep production low; and try to emphasise their other, more profitable EV offerings instead.

      I'm not sure what makes you think it could be anywhere near profitable at 20,000 Euro (considering that the similar e-Golf cost way above 30,000 before they started discounting it way below costs as well in order to meet emission mandates; and even the more cost-optimised ID.3 starts at 30,000...) -- but we know for a fact that it isn't. No need for guessing.

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  6. big # from europes biggest market.
    nice to see tesla model 3 being #1, all these long range vehicles with 400 + km will cover many long distance trips to reduce pollution.

    hope id.3/id.4 sales accelerate in coming months.

    incentives for all corporate lease of phev should be cut as those guys who buy at company cost wont care a damn about charging. phev are unnecessarily eating the lunch that belongs to bev.

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  7. Hi, hi, hi, Volkswagen thwarts Tesla with a pocket car

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  8. i thought id.4 will enter top-20, sadly its still in rampup.
    if e-up is such a popular affordable model, why not they keep producing more.
    at least mercedes c300e/de phev is knocked out of top-20 in march though they are in ytd. many more lessons are waiting for daimler group.

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    1. It's only popular and affordable because they are selling it way below cost. Any sales beyond what they need to meet emission mandates would produce a loss.

      It would be great if global makers could produce actually profitable EVs at such price points (like the Chinese) -- but we just aren't there yet :-(

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    2. That explains, so they stuffed motor and battery in Up to gain greenness in earlier years and regulatory credits in later years and closed the order books since ID.3 is in the market. I guess e-Up will go down like e-Golf.

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    3. Maarten VinkhuyzenApril 20, 2021

      The Renault Twingo ZE and the Dacia Spring are both profitable.
      I see no reason why the e-Up! should not be profitable.
      Last year every e-Up! sold safed about €18k in fines. This year it is about €14k.

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    4. Well, it's not exactly the same situation: as e-Golf has a direct successor, it really doesn't make sense to continue producing the inferior and more costly older model. e-Up! on the other hand won't have a direct successor on a dedicated EV platform for some time... But VW has no interest in increasing production to meet demand at the current price level. It's the very definition of a compliance car.

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    5. @Maarten Vinkhuyzen yes, they are obviously profitable if you include savings on emission penalties -- otherwise they wouldn't be selling them at all. But the point is that it's nowhere close to profitable without these penalities, and thus VW has no interest in selling anything beyond what's needed to meet the mandate. (And only as a last resort, when they can't sell enough of other, more profitable models.)

      Not accounting for penalties, VW is loosing something like 4000 Euro IIRC on each one. That's not a guess: that's the actual figure that has been reported. (But also, it's really obvious, as otherwise VW would be happily ramping production.)

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    6. @Maarten please note that the e-up has a 32 kWh battery vs. only 21 kWh in the Twingo, while the Dacia Spring has 27 kWh but is made in China I think.

      It's like VW made the e-up too good, or too cheap, when they almost doubled the battery and lowered the price in 2019. Or they just did't know that such large incentives were coming around the corner...

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  9. Hello José,

    can you tell me how many GWh of batteries were installed in EVs globally in January? EV Volumes posts numbers for every month but in the case of January they didn't.

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  10. What is the reason for the poor performance of the ID.3? No interest? I would buy one, if it only had a towing hook.

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    1. Word on the street is that they did massive channel stuffing late last year in order to (almost) meet emission mandates, and are still working through the backlog of self-registered cars gradually being delivered to actual customers...

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    2. In my view the ID3 should have a better price/equipment offer. And that issue will be even more accute when Hyundai/Kia start rolling out their new products.

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  11. Wow, vw group has 7 in top 20. ~30k units which is 5x tesla

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    1. VW is like those successful German football teams, what they might lack in individualities (ID.3 doesn't match Model 3, ID.4 is still growing), they more than compensate in brilliant team work...

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  12. Sales from U.S. : Q1 2021, much of the credit to Tesla.

    BEVs: 98,832 (up 44.8% from 68,247) and 2.5% of the market
    HEVs + PHEVs: 204,921 (up 105.5% from 99,719) and 5.2% of the market
    Total xEVs: 303,753 (up 80.8% from 167,966) and 7.8% of the market

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  13. There is a 200% increase in PEV sales in some european countries. Did you see any sharp increase in electricity consumption and your rates if you are only hourly pricing (real time based on hourly demand). Technically it should not since electric vehicles are 3-4 times more efficient, but if it does, then its time for utilities to take notice. May be some households can install solar panels on their homes to mitigate the price increase.

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    1. Hourly Prices, production and consumption in Germany:

      https://www.agora-energiewende.de/en/service/recent-electricity-data/chart/power_generation_price/25.04.2021/28.04.2021/

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  14. Todays hot news: Cadillac confirmed that all future vehicle developments will be only BEV. They are hoping their Ultium venture will give enough batteries to all GM models.

    No new ice models, only changes will be done. This is the company that sold most vehicles with V8 engines and perhaps with V6 too. They made lot of V12 engines once, but those high end models were phased out long ago.

    Surprisingly, they sell Escalade SUV with diesel engine. How long will that last.

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  15. In my view the ID3 should have a better price/equipment offer. And that issue will be even more accute when Hyundai/Kia start rolling out their new products.

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