Friday, April 30, 2021

Global Top 20 March 2021

 


Models: Tesla's siblings and the Wuling Mini EV shine in hot market 


Registrations were up for an impressive 173% last month, to some 531,000 units, the second best month ever, only behind the 571,000 units of last December, with BEVs jumping 145%, to some 351,000 units, so we might be seeing the plugin market hit (well) over 5 million units this year

These impressive results this year, with over 1.1 million units being registered already this year, pulled the 2021 PEV share to 5.8% (3.8% BEV), which is already significantly above the 4% of last year, all thanks to a record score in March of 8.2% (5.4% BEV), and expect it to continue growing throughout the year, to a large single digit number, as Disruption (eg, two digit market shares) on a global level is looking set to happen in 2022 the last months of this year...

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and on the economic recovery, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.




All Top 5 models of March repeated their February standings, with all podium bearers beating their personal bests, with the Model 3 in particular setting a new all-time monthly record for a single EV model, with close to 76,000 units. Will we see it beat the 100,000 units mark this year?

The top 3 are really in a league of their own, with these 3 models alone representing almost 30% of March deliveries.

Just below this Top 5, we see some surprises, with the Hyundai Kona EV returning to form, in #6, with 7,623 units, while the veteran Nissan Leaf  surges to 7th, thanks to 7,511 units and the newcomer VW ID.4 started oficially its career in 8th, with 6,568 units and expect it to reach five-digit scores soon. 

On the PHEV side, the Best Selling model was again the Volvo XC60 PHEV (6,081 units), with Swedish maker winning its second 1-2 win in a row, as the Volvo XC40 PHEV (5,812) was the category runner-up model. Both Volvo's hit record scores last month, highlighting the good moment of the Swedish maker. 




On the YTD table, the Tesla Model 3 returned to the 1st place, and the 30,000 units advance it has over the #2 Wuling Mini EV should be enough to keep the tiny Chinese EV at bay during the next couple of months.

The Tesla Model Y has secured its Bronze Medal position, distancing itself from the #4 BYD Han EV, with the midsize Crossover-disguised-as-SUV now preparing its first assault at runner-up spot in June.

The first position change outside the podium happened in #6, with the Nissan Leaf jumping four positions (discounts do indeed help to move metal...), even allowing the veteran model to improve on its 2020 position (#7) and keep the Best Seller status in compact class (Where are thou, ID.3?...).

The BEV side had other models on the rise, like Hyundai Kona EV jumping 9 spots, to #8, with the Korean crossover now being the new king on the subcompact class (B-segment), while the Audi e-Tron joined the Top 10, recovering the Best Seller status in the full size class.

On the second half on the table, reference to the BMW 330e climbing to #18, with 11,798 units, which is less than one tenth of the Model 3 deliveries...  

After a long absence, we salute the return of the Chevrolet Bolt, in #20, with the GM EV scoring last month a record performance of 6,123 units.

Outside the Top 20, two models are set to join the table soon, the #21 Peugeot 208 EV continues knocking at the door, with the French hatchback now being 700 units behind the aforementioned Chevy Bolt.




Manufacturers: Tesla firm in #1

Tesla's March score (108,398 units) represented not only a new all-time high, but also the first time we see a six-digit score on the monthly table, consolidating the expectation that Tesla will end the year with over 800,000 units.

Looking at the EV maker numbers in more detail, one might say that both sides of the Tesla fence are right:

* Pro-Tesla analysts are right to say that the Tesla demand cliff is a myth, as deliveries have jumped 109% YoY, and expect them to continue at similar rates during most of the year, and possibly also during 2022. 

* But Anti-Tesla analysts are also right to say that competition is stealing share from Tesla, because while in absolute numbers the EV maker will continue to grow in the foreseeable future, that growth will come at the cost of ICE models, because Tesla's share within the plugin market is now dropping, as new models from the competition are being launched seemingly every day and the PEV market is growing faster than Tesla. In Q1 2020, Tesla had 19% share against the current 16%, and should lose a couple more percent points until the year end. (The same applies for BEV purists, Tesla had 29% of the BEV market in Q1 2020, now it has 25%).

But then, who is winning share YoY? 

There are a few, besides the obvious case of SGMW, that came out of nowhere to the currrent 9% share, the most unexpected for me is Mercedes, that now has 5% share against the 3% of 12 months ago, thanks to its long, and strong, lineup of PHEVs and the ever expanding BEV lineup (at this pace, they will run out of alphabet letters for their EQ range in about 2 years...), the once laggard Mercedes is starting to threaten its BMW arch-rival, with the three-pointed-star maker climbing another spot in March, to 6th.

Great Wall's ORA ever expanding lineup is also helping the Chinese maker to gain share, from the 1% of March 2020, to the current 3%, while little NIO has managed to survive in the shark tank and is gaining scale, now having 2% of the global plugin market, now that survival is assured, i believe now it is the time for the Chinese EV startup to adventure itself into overseas markets.

Finally, Ford has also increased its share, by 1%, thanks to the return to normal of the Ford Kuga/Escape PHEV and the addition of the Mustang Mach-E.

But let's return to last month performances, Volkswagen is recovering from a poor start of the year and climbed to 4th, with the same story applying to Renault and Hyundai, with the French maker up to #12, while the Korean jumped to #16.

Far from the spotlight, Toyota is slowly climbing the table, now in #14, thanks to the (slow) production ramp up of the PHEV version of its RAV4 Best Seller, with the Japanese maker registering a record 10,226 units last month. Do not rule Toyota out of the race just yet... 

Outside the Top 20, a reference to Porsche, that thanks to a record 6,077 deliveries in March, it is the new #21, less than 600 units away from a Top 20 spot, an outstanding performance for such a niche (and expensive) brand.

32 comments:

  1. So GM out of the Top 20 Brands and the Bolt just hanging in at number 20 in the models.
    GM not doing so well.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. They are now finally rolling out new models though, after years of stagnation... I think they could recover a bit.

      Delete
    2. Man, avoid redundant repeating and long sentences, e.g. "this year..this year..year, this year..."
      It is really difficult to focus on the message

      These impressive results this year, with over 1.1 million units being registered already this year, pulled the 2021 PEV share to 5.8% (3.8% BEV), which is already significantly above the 4% of last year, all thanks to a record score in March of 8.2% (5.4% BEV), and expect it to continue growing throughout the year, to a large single digit number, as Disruption (eg, two digit market shares) on a global level is looking set to happen in 2022 the last months of this year

      Delete
  2. Skyhigh 531.702 / 8,2%. Even YTD @ 5,8% is approaching 6%.
    Months in top-12
    2021 : 3
    2020 : 6
    2019 : 2
    2018 : 1

    Top-3 months
    1. 2020-12 : 571.475
    2. 2021-03 : 531.702
    3. 2020-11 : 414.368

    Next-9 months
    4. 2020-09 : 345.519
    5. 2020-10 : 341.531
    6. 2021-01 : 321.031
    7. 2018-12 : 286.367
    8. 2019-12 : 279.214
    9. 2021-02 : 269.743
    10. 2019-06 : 264.591
    11. 2020-07 : 247.575
    12. 2020-08 : 240.981

    ReplyDelete
  3. Woohoo. Global Q1 crosses 1 million mark. 1st Q to cross this was 2020-Q4 with 1.327.374. This is only a 2nd quarter to achieve this. I guess every subsequent quarter will see 1 million in sales.

    Its the 3rd time, that global sales cross 400.000 mark.

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  4. march milestone setters
    2 milestones for Tesla.
    Cumulative Tesla sales crossed 1,5 million
    Model 3 crosses 900.000
    Wuling MiniEv crosses 200.000

    Every month, some make/model will add another 100.000.
    Last month, Model Y crossed 100.000 mark.

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  5. @Jose Pontes: Since Tesla sold more than 1,5 million vehicles with all of them being BEVs and most of them being long range vehicles with 400+ km range, it will make sense to publish just the global cumulative sales of 4 Tesla models in 1 small table. This will raise awareness as to how a small new company could usher in revolution. Later if the sales of Nio, Xpeng, Lucid increases, they can also be added. This is just to promote companies that sell just the BEVs.

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  6. Of late, the ice car architecture used for bev is slowly replaced with bev specific architecture like MEB in upcoming models. GM, Benz, Hyundai are all creating a whole new arch with battery on the floor and this could lower the cost. But they should make and sell with all support from supplier/dealer.

    500 million doses of vaccines given by march end and it crossed 1 billion in april. At this rate, it will be given to another 4 billion by year end with the total reaching 5 billion. Probably another 3 billion in next year.

    In a quarter with so many shortages related to chips, battery; Tesla still managed to pull a record though with just 2 models. Hoping that the production for the other 2 models will start at least this quarter. Seems they are planning to start Model S sales soon.

    Even Lucid, Rivian may start deliveries only in Q3.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Lucid officially pushed deliveries to the second half of the year.

      (Don't remember Rivian's latest timeline...)

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    2. "(Don't remember Rivian's latest timeline...)"

      Deliveries are supposed to start in June.

      Delete
  7. Seems toyota (+lexus) group is the big loser. Probably one time prius users who expected prius bev are showing their anger at toyota. Grudgingly toyota is selling those phevs. we should ask them how many fcev they sold so far.

    https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-trade-in-numbers-dominated-gas-powered-cars/

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  8. By all means it makes sense to stop any new investment in diesel engines and this should be done by automakers. Diesel has extra 15% energy than petrol and diesel engines are 15% more efficient for a total gain of 30%.

    But the FHEV (full hybrid) gets 30 - 40% increase in efficiency using a small 1,5 KWh battery with petrol that still has 15% less energy. If automaker cannot procure battery for a PEV, at least they should consider making MHEV/FHEV instead of investing in diesel.

    Share of diesel in EU-28 has gone down from 52% (2015) to 32% (2019). In 2020, the real change happened with the PEV sales skyrocketing and diesel sales crashing. Once the Covid issue is over, the real focus will be on implementing the marine transport policy with lower sulfur content which will pretty much eliminate high carbon bunker fuel. Then ships/barges will be using either diesel or natgas like LNG/Methanol. Diesel can power heavy vehicle but not the lighter 4-wheeles vehicles.

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  9. Please read this news from below mentioned webpage. Low speed EVs powered by lead batteries are declining. One of the reason is Wuling MiniEV and this will accelerate as more small affordable EVs hit the market. Makes more sense to replace unstable 3-wheeler with more stable 4-wheeler.
    Note: Their . is european , as 1000s delimiter.

    "Since 2010, the four-wheeled low speed electric vehicle market experienced wild development due to the demand from fourth-tier and fifth-tier cities and rural areas, and the output peaked at 1.34 million units in 2018, but dropped to 1.27 million units in 2019 affected by policy adjustment from the state and main producing districts like Shandong.

    The market was expected to rebound with the establishment of a national low speed electric vehicle standard in 2021. However, it will continue to decline due to the impact of A00 class electric vehicles such as Wuling Hongguang MINI EV, and the transformation of many low-speed electric vehicle vendors."

    "output of electric tricycle decreased to 9.82 million units"
    https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/02/08/2171206/0/en/China-Low-speed-Electric-Vehicle-LSEV-Industry-Report-2020-2026-Featuring-Chinese-LSEV-Manufacturers-LSEV-BMS-Manufacturers.html#:~:text=At%20present%2C%20China%20has%20over,Haibao%2C%20Bird%2C%20and%20Besway.&text=The%20four%2Dwheeled%20low%20speed,prototype%20of%20a%20golf%20cart.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The article says that three-wheelers are mostly used for deliveries. These won't get replaced by the likes of the HongGuang, or any four-wheeler for that matter. Indeed three-wheelers for deliveries seem to be on the rise in most of the world...

      Delete
  10. While producing crude oil, lot of associated natgas(methane) is simply flared(burnt) and some natgas escapes into atmosphere causing more global warming. If we combine the emissions from the oil & gas burnt, it could be worser than buring coal.

    According to this site, 150 billion cubic meters (3,8% of global production) are flared while another 55 billion cubic meters (1,4%) are released into atmosphere. Thats a total of 5,2% of wasted natgas.
    https://www.iea.org/commentaries/putting-gas-flaring-in-the-spotlight

    Also most of the coal consumed is produced in the same country or at least in the same continent. On the other hand, the oil is transported far away. In addition transporting refined motor fuel involves nearly 1 kg of truck weight (refinery to petrol bunk and back) for 1 kg of refined motor fuel transported.

    On top of all, oil leads to lot of civil wars, wars and terrorism. Just sum it up, lets spread the word that oil is more harmful than coal.

    So we should target on cutting the oil production first, but how?
    BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) followed by PHEV, FHEV, MHEV.

    ReplyDelete
  11. How many of you can believe that the USA power consumption decreased by 2,8% between 2010 and 2020. You may blame Covid, so lets compare 2010 and 2019, it only increased by 0,06% which is nothing with the population that has grown 7% in last 10 years with millions more houses being built and economy growing by 30+ %.

    Reason is the improved energy efficiency of air conditioners, refrigerators, TV and most importantly 7 W LED bulb replacing 40 W incandescent bulb.

    And the 2+ million PEVs did not add much. But the big oil bluffs that the PEVs will kill the grid and they ignore the fact that EVs are 3-4 times more efficient than ICE.

    (Thousand Megawatthours)
    2010 : 4.125.060
    2011 : 4.100.141
    2012 : 4.047.765
    2013 : 4.065.964
    2014 : 4.093.606
    2015 : 4.077.601
    2016 : 4.076.675
    2017 : 4.034.271
    2018 : 4.178.277
    2019 : 4.127.855
    2020 : 4.009.085

    Estimated power from small scale solar that is not included in above info
    2010 : N/A
    2011 : N/A
    2012 : N/A
    2013 : N/A
    2014 : 11.233
    2015 : 14.139
    2016 : 18.812
    2017 : 23.990
    2018 : 29.539
    2019 : 34.957
    2020 : 41.740

    Even if we include this, it does not increase the overall power consumption much.

    https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_1_01

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  12. @Jose Pontes: You mentioned 184.500 as Tesla YTD sales, but the company said 184.800
    Where is the 300 unit difference.
    Thanks for all your great work in posting these #.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I had prepared this before the official Tesla numbers update.

      Delete
  13. Is the Bolt already the new model? Or clearing stock of the old one?...

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  14. Unless the HongGuang slows down (which wouldn't be unusual in this extremely dynamic market), I don't think Model Y will have the production capacity this year to displace it...

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  15. Seems Tesla March numbers are off, 21Q1 Model 3 global sales was 120k, same with 20Q4, see https://tesla-cdn.thron.com/delivery/public/document/tesla/a1ab64e7-7c18-421c-a898-9b60397b017b/S1dbei4/WEB/TSLA-Q1-2021-Update
    And Jan (perhaps Feb) was probably also off, see
    https://insideevs.com/news/496178/tesla-us-registrations-up-year-over-year

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That doesn't tell the breakdown between Model 3 and Model Y sales... These are usually just guesses. Though this time around, they actually gave a hint about the breakdown: production of ~125,000 Model 3; with 3 + Y deliveries for the quarter being ~4,000 above production -- so only 120,000 deliveries for Model 3 is almost certainly wrong.

      Delete
  16. Hi José,

    Thanks for interesting info!

    I am not sure about what the blue/black and bold/not bold way of writing in the brands table mean. Does blue indicate that the brand is registering more BEVs than PHEVs and the other way around with the black colour? And does bold mean that the brand is only registering BEVS or only PHEVS?

    If this is the case Volvo would not be in bold since there is the BEV XC40 Recharge P8. And Ford would be in black since most of the registrations comes from the Kuga PHEV.

    Or did I get this all wrong?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Mostly correct: blue is more BEVs, black more PHEVs; but bold means >90%, not 100%.

      XC40 BEV seems to have had rather few deliveries thus far this year -- so 90% PHEV seems likely.

      Ford also surprised me a bit: but I don't know how fast Mach E is ramping -- so maybe not wrong?...

      Delete
    2. Bold means 90+% of the registered PEVs were BEVs/PHEVs.

      And Ford's case it's blue because it apparently sold more Mach-es tyan Kugas (it sold 8,861 Kugas, which is slightly less than half of 17,891).

      Delete
    3. @antrik @IwasHidingDear Thanx for the information!

      Delete
  17. Amazing job as usual José. Parabéns!
    As a note, using your data here in this site threw out these last years, I was able to count some 940.000 model 3 deliveries until now. It should hit the one millionth delivery in May at earliest, but definitely in this second quarter of 2021.

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  18. Kudos on showing market share by brand. That's what investors care about.

    ReplyDelete
  19. AnonymousMay 03, 2021

    All the while startup Tesla keeps on catchuping, Nio lands in Norway. Hey!, did you know Norway...

    ReplyDelete
  20. Hi Jose,
    Thanks, this is great news
    I’m just wondering what Global means? Does this mean all new car sales in all countries throughout the world or only new car sales in eg markets where plug-in cars are sold? Either way it’s good news, but if it’s truly based on all worldwide new car sales in all countries, it’s just wonderful!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Some EV models -- or at the very least some PHEVs -- are sold pretty much everywhere in the world; so this distinction doesn't really make sense... Global is global.

      Delete
  21. AnonymousMay 07, 2021

    Any news on the RHD Markets?

    ReplyDelete