Monday, May 3, 2021

2021 Q1 Sales by OEM

 

Looking at the Q1 2021 sales by Automotive Group, we have:



PHEV+BEV




If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla ended the first quarter of the year in the lead, with 16% share, 3% less than a year ago, which nevertheless is still a small feat all by itself, considering the intensive diversification process that the EV world is now having, 16% is still significant.

Tesla's current domination is however being threatened by the Volkswagen Group the rise and rise of SAIC, that jumped from #9 in Q1 2020, to the current 2nd spot, with its share jumping from 4% a year ago, to the current 13%.

Although most of this growth has to do with the Wuling Mini EV success story, the truth is that SAIC itself is also benefiting from the export efforts made through MG (it is the only Chinese EV brand that sells in volume outside its home country), with leading roles in the EV movement in diverse geographies, from Latin America to Australia, passing by Israel and other Middle Eastern markets, and as these EV markets grow, so too will MG  (and SAIC).

Although being surpassed by SAIC, the Volkswagen Group reduced its distance to the leader from 6% (19% vs 13% in Q1 2020), to the current 4% (16% vs 12%), so not all is lost for the German conglomerate, in its goal to discuss the global leadership, but what has changed in the last 12 months is that Tesla doesn't have just one competitor (VW Group) trying to catch it, but two (VWG and SAIC).

Will this mean that Tesla will lose the 2021 title? Despite an expected strong second half of the year for the VW Group, I believe Tesla will still end the year in the lead, but for 2022...All bets are on.

The BMW Group ended the first quarter of the year in the 4th place, improving on the #5 of 2020, benefiting from the implosion of the Renault-Nissan Alliance (a year ago, the Alliance had 11% share, now it has 5%...) and the popularity of its PHEV lineup. 

We now have a new face on this Top 5, with Stellantis rising to 5th, with 6% share, thanks to an extensive lineup, spreaded through its 205 brands, and with the #4 BMW Group just 11.000 units ahead, we could see it run for the 4th spot soon.

Regarding the Q1 2020 ranking, we witness the disappearance of the Hyundai-Kia Group, that has seen its share drop by half, from 8% a year ago, to the current 4%, so those Hyundai Ioniq 5 and Kia EV6 are badly needed to change the fortunes of the Korean group.




BEV




Looking only at BEVs, Tesla is comfortable in the lead, with 25% share, but has lost 4% share regarding the same period of last year, but the fact that 1 in 4 BEVs sold in the World belongs to Tesla is a feat in itself, considering the current diversification process.

The Silver medal is in the hands of the 2020 Silver medalist, SAIC, with the Chinese maker jumping its share by 6%, to the current 17%, not only leaving the 3rd placed Volkswagen Group in the dust (they ended 2020 separated by just 16.000 units), but they are now starting to see Tesla's rear more clearly.

The self-registering stunt of late last year by the Volkswagen Group is now having its payback, with the first two months of the year being registration low points, with March helping it to recover a bit, but it wasn't enough to recover the 11% share that the German conglomerate had both in Q1 2020 and by the end of last year.

Will we see it recover significantly in Q2?

Just outside the podium we have BYD, with 5% share, with the Chinese carmaker rising one spot regarding 2020, not because it has increased its share (it was actually down from 6% to the current 5%), but because of the Renault-Nissan implosion, with the Alliance now having 4% share, a far cry from the 13%(!) it had 12 months ago...

Like in the PHEV+BEV ranking, Stellantis shows up in the Top 5 BEV ranking for the first time, in 5th, with 5% share, but despite being just 3.000 units behind the #4 BYD, do not expect it to surpass the Chinese maker anytime soon, as BYD is now set to increase deliveries significantly, now that all its BEV lineup has transitioned to the new LFP batteries.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, it disappears from the Top 5, being replaced by the more BEV-friendly BYD.

30 comments:

  1. Renault had a big lead when there was no competition.

    Now Zoe's design similar to Nissan Note looks outdated just like GM Bolt.

    Peugeot 208, Opel Corsa, Citroën e-c4 and Fiat 500e seem to gain customers favor.

    Maybe Dacia Spring can help.

    Will model 3 suffer like Zoe in the future?
    Right now it's design still looks acceptable.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Fiat 500 is a different size class; and so is the C4.

      As for the 208 and Corsa, I'm not convinced it has anything to do with styling. I did expect these to make significant inroads, as they are offering faster charging and otherwise similar specs -- I'm just surprised it took so long. Though I'm not sure the current Zoe slump is actually indicative of future trends...

      Delete
    2. In Q1 Renault sold 14.000 Zoe's, 5.000 Twingo EVs and 3.000 Kangoo EV's. One would expect that with Nissan EV's added, the top 5 BEV is within reach.

      Delete
  2. Actually, I think VW might have a better chance of beating Tesla (when including PHEVs in the count) in 2021 than in 2022... Apparently they have a goal of selling over a million EVs this year (something like 1.1 million IIRC?) -- while at this point it doesn't look like Tesla will quite reach a million.

    Of course VW failed to fulfil their BEV sales goals in 2020 (due to production delays in Europe, and weak demand in China) -- so it's entirely possible that they will fall short again this year... Which means the race is still very much on.

    Meanwhile, in 2022, Tesla should see another huge jump in production, to 1.5 million at least -- while I don't think VW has particularly aggressive growth plans for next year?...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The publicly stated goal is to sell up to 1 million BEV + PHEV in 2021 for the whole Volkswagen group.

      Delete
    2. Only "up to"? I guess I misremembered...

      According to some suppliers, Tesla is apparently also planning for up to a million vehicles -- so this should be really interesting :-)

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    3. In some countries in Europe the VW group seem to have sold more EVs+PHEVs in April alone than the full first quarter and now in May the Skoda Enyaq seems to be delivered in substancial amounts, it seems we should not at all look at first quarter 2021 as a benchmark for the rest of the year as regards VW group, 1 million in 2021 seems a lot to me but like around 0.9 million reachable. I believe both VW group and Tesla will end up 2021 neck to neck. For Tesla, the fog of what's happening in China needs to be dissipated to have a better view of what 2022 & 2023 will look like. (Tesla is under pressure in China and as CCP controls everything there, we know where from it's coming but we (I) do not know what the CCP wants exactly).

      Delete
  3. The Ioniq 5 / EV6 look so promising, they could probably outsell some entire major groups on their own... Except that knowing Hyundai, initial production will surely again be way way below demand :-(

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scratch that: with the Kia pricing now revealed (and the Hyundai variant presumably being similar), it doesn't look like they will be quite as mainstream as I thought. While Tesla-like specs arguably justify the premium pricing, I'm not sure many people will accept it from brands that haven't exactly been perceived as premium in the past...

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  4. AnonymousMay 04, 2021

    Q1 Sales total is 1,128,003

    But Jan + Feb + Mar = 321031+269743+531702 = 1,122,476

    What am i missing?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Corrections for Jan + Feb are included now ?

      Delete
  5. AnonymousMay 05, 2021

    Tesla shares not worthy $700

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Tesla has not sold any model during the first week of May in Norway. Is this really a growth stock and industry leader?

      Delete
    2. @Heinrich
      Please stop that nonsense.
      You know by now that Tesla deliveries only in the second half of a quarter.

      Delete
    3. @Koogle - true. But will it really be enough to sell its products only in 4 out of 12 months a year? That was a nice publicity stunt as long as competition was little to none existent. The BEV market is maturing and Tesla has to do business like grown ups if it wants to compete in a grown ups' market.

      Delete
    4. @Nikita Hund
      Fully agree with you.
      They have more than enough capacity to deliver more regularly since they produce in China.

      Delete
    5. Deliveries should even out once they have factories in all major markets, i.e. fairly soon. Until then, most people don't mind waiting a few weeks for delivery.

      As for "publicity stunt", that's bullshit, and you know it.

      Delete
  6. AnonymousMay 05, 2021

    Do we know towards which group the SAIC-VW ID.4 X will be counted? Or the FAW-VW ID.4 Crozz?

    ReplyDelete
  7. AnonymousMay 06, 2021

    Stellantis

    Citroën Ami
    Fiat 500e
    Peugeot 208 EV
    Opel/Vauxhall Corsa EV
    Citroën C4 EV
    Peugeot 2008 EV
    Opel/Vauxhall Mokka EV
    Opel/Vauxhall Vivaro EV
    Fiat E-Ducato
    ... and many more

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Stellantis, not much talk, but plenty of action.

      Delete
  8. AnonymousMay 06, 2021

    Tesla Mission is to accelerate trade-ins ownership by sending the majority of their 98% ICE traded in vehicles to used market auctions

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What else are they supposed to do with the trade-ins?

      Delete
  9. AnonymousMay 07, 2021

    Is Sol brand member of VAG?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Curious why Renault-Nissan is missing among Top 5 EV manufacturers. In Q1, Renault alone sold 14.000 Zoe's, 5.000 Twingo EV's, 3.000 Kangoo EV's. Guess Nissan's LEAF easeliy adds enough to pip the #5's 35.400 ex.

    ReplyDelete
  11. AnonymousMay 11, 2021

    Stupid legacy carmakers, one by one derailed by chip shortages. Look Smart asshole Tesla: Model S and Model X line shutdown for almost 6 months now...

    ReplyDelete
  12. AnonymousMay 12, 2021

    Tesla, permanently in Beta iterations.

    ReplyDelete
  13. AnonymousMay 12, 2021

    12 days into May and not even 1 market report! What's up?

    written by Looney Tunes

    ReplyDelete
  14. AnonymousMay 13, 2021

    Daimler

    M-B eCitaro
    M-B eActros
    Fuso eCanter
    M-B eSprinter
    M-B eVito
    M-B EQC
    M-B EQA
    Smart ForFour EQ
    Smart ForTwo EQ
    ... and many more

    ReplyDelete
  15. VAG will pass everyone by the end of 2022 when ID4, Skoda Enyac, E tron Q4, Porsche Taycan Tourismo have matured. And if that dosen t happen in 2022 it will happen in 2023 with the addition new ID wagon, sedan and van in 2022, as well as some new E tron lineups....

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonymousMay 13, 2021

    Tesla; in 2020 FSD will be piloting the Model 3 robotaxis. LOL

    ReplyDelete