Monday, May 31, 2021

Global Top 20 April 2021

 


Models: Wuling Mini EV #1 in April 


Registrations were up for an impressive 249% last month, to some 392,000 units, the 4th best month ever, with BEVs jumping 235%, to some 251,000 units, so we might be seeing the plugin market hit 5 million units this year

These impressive results this year kept the 2021 PEV share to 5.7% (3.7% BEV), which is already significantly above the 4% of last year, and expect it to continue growing throughout the year, to a large single digit number, as Disruption (eg, two digit market shares) on a global level is looking set to happen in the last months of this year, or 2022, the latest.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and on the following economic recovery, but whatever happens, expect plugins to increase significantly its PEV share on the way.




There are two new faces on the Top 5, with the VW ID.4 debuting in 4th, with 10,318 units, its first five-digit score, while its (slightly) older brother, the ID.3, makes its first appearance this year, in #5.

In the podium, besides the Wuling Mini EV return to the top position, after a win in January, there an important mark concerning both Teslas, as last month the Tesla Model Y managed to beat the Model 3 for the first time ever, something that i believe will become the norm in a not too distant future.

Just below this Top 5, we have the Li Xiang One showing up in #7, becoming April's Best Selling PHEV, ahead of two Volvos, the XC60 PHEV (5,005 units), and the Volvo XC40 PHEV (4,589), highlighting the good moment of the Swedish maker. 




On the YTD table, everything remained stable on the Top 5, but below it, balance is the word, with less than 4,000 units separating the #6 Nissan Leaf from the #20 Chevrolet Bolt.

But despite this balance, there weren't much position changes to the table, with the most important being the Li Xiang One jumping to 12th, overcoming the BMW 530e/Le, that had a slow month, with the Chinese startup model now joining the full size category podium, while being just 481 units from the runner-up Audi e-Tron, so we might see the Chinese EREV overcome the big Audi soon and have a 1-2 Chinese leadership in the full size category, as the category leader, the #4 BYD Han EV, seems unattainable.

Volkswagen had a great month, with the ID.4 joining the table in #13, thus making 15 BEVs in the Top 20, allowing the crossover to surpass for the first time its ID.3 relative, that despite this, had a positive month, with the German hatchback jumping 3 spots, to #13, with Volkswagen EV in recovery mode, the Nissan Leaf Best Seller status in the compact class is going to be tested soon, as both hatchbacks are now separated by less than 2,000 units.

Outside the Top 20, there are a few interesting developments, the most surprising of all being the rise to #22 of the Toyota Prius PHEV, that thanks to 4,715 units in April, its best score in over 3 years, allowed the Japanese hatchback to be just 1,500 units behind the #20 Chevrolet Bolt, and highlighting Toyota's good month, the RAV4 PHEV had its best score so far, with 3,996 units, so don't rule out Toyota from the 2021 Best Sellers table just yet...

Speaking of records, right now there are two models scoring consecutive record performances, with the BYD Qin Plus PHEV registering 3,603 units last month, it's 3rd record score in a row, while Hozon's Neta V had 3,846 units last month, it's second consecutive record, expect the BYD model to continue ramping up production (up to five-digits?), while one wonders if the startup Hozon has finally struck gold, with its small crossover.





Manufacturers: Volkswagen climbs to #3

In April, Tesla took the monthly trophy, it's third in a row, but the top three brands were close, with only 1,874 units separating the #1 Tesla from the #3 Volkswagen.

Speaking of Volkswagen, the German brand has surpassed BMW in April and joined the podium, in 3rd, thanks to the good performances of the ID.3 and ID.4.

By the look of things, do not expect BMW to hold on to the 4th position for long, as #5 BYD is recovering momentum and might already surpass it in May, leaving the Bavarian brand withing sight of the rising #6 Mercedes, that has won 3% share YoY, while in the same period, BMW dropped from 7% in April 2020, to the current 6%.

Peugeot joined the Top 10, while Kia also climbed one position, in this case to 12th, but with just 2,000 units separating the #10 Peugeot from the #13, anything can happen.

On the lower half of the table, #18 GAC had its best score in 16 months, thanks to the landing of the new Aion Y. 

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 6,062 registrations of Skoda, but the brands closer to join the table are the #21 Xpeng (18,436 units) and #22 Li Xiang (18,118).

By OEM, Tesla (14%, down 2%) is ahead, followed by SAIC (13%), with the Volkswagen Group (13%, up 1%) closing in on both. 

44 comments:

  1. Ships from California can't enter Germany ports.LAKE FUXIAN has been unable to enter the port of Emden for a week,GLOVIS CHORUS two days standing near the port Bremerhaven.What is happening?

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    1. AnonymousMay 31, 2021

      I expect the same behaviour like every last month of a quarter? Deliveries to customer in June.

      On the other hand, there are a lot of problems with cargo goods cause of the Suez-Incident

      e.g. https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/logistik-container-chaos-trifft-hamburger-hafen-die-verzoegerungen-sind-enorm/27226938.html?ticket=ST-7027635-wIyPTsHA0odrtjtQoimR-ap2

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    2. Maybe the parking is still occupied by VW vehicles after terrorists from greenpeace stole 1200 keys and spare keys from vehicles parked there.
      Now the extortionists got in contact with the victims.

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    3. Some other ecology terrorists attacked Tesla Berlin factory burning high voltage on surface cables.

      People could have gotten killed.

      There must be no pardon for any such terrorism.

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    4. GLOVIS CHORUS was never launched for unloading in Bremerhaven(5d 19h).Returns back to Bruges

      Delete
  2. If Volkswagen group has 13% market share with VW brand at 6% and audi at 3% it would mean that Skoda, Seat and Porsche have 4% market share combined despite being out of the top 20 ?

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    1. These ratios were similar at end of March. Through April 137k of ~195k total VAG EVs were VW/Audi brand. The text says Skoda was 6k. Porsche was probably close to 20k, with 12k (est) Taycans plus all their PHEVs.

      That leaves 22k for:
      SEAT (should be less than Skoda, maybe 5k)
      SOL (VW/JAC brand in China, less than 6k)
      ???

      The 6k Skoda looks low. EU-EVs shows them with 4.4k BEVs alone without numbers from UK, Austria, Belgium, eastern Europe where they are built, etc.

      Delete
  3. AnonymousMay 31, 2021

    Do you see a reason for Model 3 being way lower than in January?
    Enhanced exports from China maybe which were sold in May?

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    1. China was very low due to higher exports. They also shut Fremont Model 3 lines down a bit during April, perhaps due to supply chain.

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  4. What is a total for Volkswagen AG? I found a source claiming that their cumulative BEV sales Jan-April 1021 were 99,076, which would mean that they sold 39k BEVs in April - 8k more than Tesla. I believe this is a premiere.

    With PHEVs, their cumulative Jan-April sales must be around 200k, maybe 10% less than Tesla (216k). Times are changing...

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    1. If we do know that Tesla is doing bad the 1, 4, 7, and 9 month every year, to compare month 1-4 will defensively be bad for Tesla. If you want to do a fair comparison you will need to wait until we have Junes number. If you aren't interested in doing a fair comparison then you can conclude now that only Volkswagen and Audi together crushed Tesla if you look only on April.

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    2. AnonymousMay 31, 2021

      As Viktor pointed out, comparisons of Tesla based on a given month are skewed, since they do most of their deliveries in the final month of each quarter due to transit.

      Then, there are rumors that Tesla's Shanghai plant was closed for two weeks in April (not sure how true those rumors are, though).

      Looking are pure BEVs, the 14 brands under VAG are still under half of Tesla's output. Over time, PHEVs will become too expensive to produce due to the ICE portion getting comparatively more expensive than the BEV portion, as economies of scale are achieved. That's part of the reason I don't get excited by the PHEV portion; it will be a short-term (<5 years, IMO) phenomenon.

      There is a current catch-up period for other OEMs as GFs Berlin and Austin are built, but once they are up and running, Tesla will once again pull ahead for a few years. Consider that their estimated capacity is 1.5-2M units annually each. Tesla is bringing more capacity online this year than the rest of the Western auto makers combined.

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    3. Tesla will remain #1 in YTD, but VW Group may win Q2. These numbers show ~65k in April, higher than Tesla's Q1 monthly average. They plan to sell a million this year, implying 100k/month average from May-Dec. So maybe 70-80k in May ramping to 125k/month near yearend.

      70k+ in May would set them up for 215k in Q2 vs. maybe 200-210k for Tesla.

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    4. With all the new factories and extensions of existing factories under construction, Tesla should soon have more than 2 million yearly capacity.

      (That's design capacity, though -- whether they actually achieve sustained production at such rates, remains to be seen... Shanghai however looks good thus far on that score.)

      As for April Shanghai production, the two-week shutdown was only for Model Y production line upgrades (always happens a few times during ramping) -- Model 3 production was normal, at ~20,000.

      Delete
  5. Wow 392.498. Even YTD @ 5,7% is great.
    Months in top-12
    2021 : 4
    2020 : 5
    2019 : 2
    2018 : 1

    Still 2019 retains its 2 spots with 2018 with 1 spot.

    Top-3 months
    1. 2020-12 : 571475
    2. 2021-03 : 531702
    3. 2020-11 : 414368

    Next-9 months
    4. 2021-04 : 392498
    5. 2020-09 : 345519
    6. 2020-10 : 341531
    7. 2021-01 : 321031
    8. 2018-12 : 286367
    9. 2019-12 : 279214
    10. 2021-02 : 269743
    11. 2019-06 : 264591
    12. 2020-07 : 247575

    ReplyDelete
  6. Again BEV take top-8 positions.
    On YTD basis, between #6 Nissan Leaf and #20 Chevy Bolt, all 15 models are separated by just around 4.000 units in difference, thats a tight race.
    Nice to see ID4 entering top-20 in #13 while ID3 moves from #17 to #14. Many dedicated BEV are moving up shows that automakers should seriously consider more such models instead of converting ICE cars to BEV.

    ReplyDelete
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    1. Indeed, there are only three models (Han, Kona, Niro) in the top 20 that are also available in non-BEV variants... Though if we add models that got unique names and bodies, but are based on converted combustion platforms, there are quite a few more: Leaf, e-tron, Zoe, Bolt. (And possibly others?)

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  7. Hooray, Tesla sales crossed 1.6 million mark.
    Good that Tesla is lead make even in 1st month of quarter. I believe most vehicles are in transit.
    Decrease in sales across the board shows that the chip shortage is impacting many automakers.

    I think BYD also crossed cumulative 1 million vehicle sales.

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  8. I believe in April, 2 new affordable crossovers went on sale in china.
    Changan Benben and Letin Mango both cost around $4.600, 5 door-4 seater vehicles with range around 150 km (NEDC) and both using LFP battery.
    In another development Leapmotor T03 was launched with a base version costing $9.400 for 403 km (NEDC). This model uses LFP while the same range version with NCM battery cost $11.250. Just like Tesla Model 3. We can see many models with its base low range/cost version using LFP.

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  9. Wow global cumulative sales crossed 12 million. It all started in 2010 with only few 1000 units sold, in the next 12 years, it crossed 12 million and this was never predicted by any expert in any MSM.

    YTD sales of 1.519.566 / 4 * 12 = 4.558.698.
    At this rate, it will cross 5 million mark easily though 6 million will be a stretch.

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    1. Arguably it started in 2008 (original Tesla Roadster), or perhaps 2009 (Mitsubishi i-MiEV).

      (There were various BEV models before these -- but none really meaningful, ever since the early 20th century...)

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    2. Thats correct, Tesla Roadster is the 1st BEV that was sold with Lithium battery. Before that it was Nissan Altra with Lithium battery around 2000 timeline, but that was leased in Japan (just 200 units) and probably crushed later. No idea about that vehicle, while Roadster is still running and living in many households.

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  10. @Jose Pontes: I collected the global sales of 4 Tesla models for every YYYY-MM. 95% of source is ev-sales.blogspot with the remaining 5% being insideevs, cleantechnica and ir.tesla. I dont have data for few months.
    I am sure you will have for all months.
    If this will be of any help to you. I can email it to you .xls format in 1 sheet. Let me know your email id.

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  11. Why should we expect the Qin Plus PHEV -- or any PHEV, for that matter -- to reach five digits results?...

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  12. Presuming 12 million light duty and 2 million heavy duty vehicles were sold globally, thats a total of 14 million vehicles. Another 6-8 million low speed EV brings a total of 21 million vehicles. All this is slightly more than 1% of the global road vehicle fleet of 1,5 billion.

    So a long way to cut down on global emissions, but a good 1st step. I am sure those electric buses that does 200-300 km/day does a great job in cutting emissions.

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    1. What makes you think sales of low-speed EVs are even remotely this big? Last I heard, they sell something like a million per year in China (don't remember whether it was somewhat more or even less than that) -- and to the best of my knowledge, they are way less popular everywhere else...

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    2. His numbers are cumulative, so a million per year for six years....

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    3. Right, of course... Sorry, brain fart :-(

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  13. Wuling miniEV is #3 in China overall sales. At least 1 BEV is in podium in 1 country. Legacy automakers will soon learn hard lessons.

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  14. I think Tesla's number is something wrong. The numbers looks like only US or China.

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    1. Tesla sales are always very low in the first month of a quarter. In April they only sold 1.3k cars in Europe and 11k in China.

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    2. Tesla's production didn't stop. Capacity is larger than January. So that's why I think April deliveries are too low.

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    3. In April loaded on ships~35000

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  15. AnonymousJune 02, 2021

    Portugal: Tesla in the shithole; -48% YoY

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    1. Oh no... Clearly, Tesla is doomed!

      Delete
  16. AnonymousJune 03, 2021

    Tesla has to work their model changeovers... more than 6 months gap between models is definitely incompetence.

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    1. It's literally the first time ever they are doing something like that...

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  17. Tesla sigue perdiendo cuota de mercado mes a mes. Por mucho que haya comentarios de que fabrica mas que todos los fabricantes occidentales juntos su cuota de mercado no deja de caer y caer. Los números rara vez mienten.

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    1. Well, if Tesla was to maintain its 25% market share all along this process of transition between ICE cars and full electric cars, it would have to produce between 20 to 25 millions cars each year in maybe ten to fifteen years from now...So, very improbable. After not all car makers have a 10% market share of global car market like VW or Toyota. BMW and Mercedes have been living very healthily with far less for decades...

      Las cifras de cuota de mercado no dejarán de caer, es un proceso natural cuando se pasa de un modelo disruptivo a un modelo de mercado más maduro donde los actores se multiplican (como en el caso de la cuota de mercado de iPhone y Apple, para la situación actual con Samsung y Huwai ). Pero en números absolutos, Tesla seguirá dominando o permanecerá entre los tres primeros, al menos hasta 2030.

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    2. Tesla is literally planning for 20 million cars per year by 2030...

      Of course it's not certain that they will be able to achieve that -- but given their past CAGR, it's an entirely plausible goal.

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    3. Personally, i wouldn't like Tesla (or anyone else) to have such high share numbers...

      I like diversity, it's bad enough that IT and social media are on the hands of oligopolies, i wouldn't like the Automotive business to go that same route...

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    4. If they can keep being ahead of the pack in technology, it would only be natural to get a large market share.

      In IT, many things are based on exclusive rights (software) and/or exclusive databases, which naturally tend to create monopolies; and I agree that this is a problem. In physical goods however when there is an oligopoly, there are generally good reasons for that... There is a price to be paid for diversity -- and often people are not willing to pay it. I strongly suspect that the only reason why there are still quite many major car brands and makers today, is the logistics of car shipping providing a certain natural resistance against globalisation.

      As digitalisation progresses in the automotive sector though, I'd be surprised *not* to see further consolidation.

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  18. AnonymousJune 07, 2021

    Sweden: Tesla in the shithole; -17% YoY

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    1. Oh no... Clearly, Tesla is doomed!

      Delete