Netherlands March 2019

Tesla Model 3 jumps to #1

After the December deliveries peak, the Dutch PEV market had another sales surge last month, with 4,721 plugin registrations, up 252% YoY, which translates in a PEV Share of 12% in March, and pulls the year to date count to 10,424 units (+224%), with the 2019 PEV share now at 9%, frankly above last year result, if we only consider BEVs, the EV share in March was 10%, or 7.4%, if we consider the 2019 YTD share.

This good market performance was mainly due to the Tesla Model 3, that delivered 2,195 units in March, a new record for any Tesla in the Netherlands, also allowing the Tesla sedan to become last month Best Seller, all fuel categories included, with over 1,000 units of advantage over the #2 Ford Focus (1,187 units). 

Two other recent, long range BEVs, reached the podium, with the Hyundai Kona EV (376 units) and Kia Niro EV (323 units, new personal best) underlining the changing market dynamics. 

Surprisingly, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was also 3rd, with 323 units, being by far the Best Selling PHEV in this market, with the Japanese SUV scoring its best result since December 2016, when it lost the company car fiscal benefits, so even without fiscal incentives, buyers (or should i say, fleet managers?) are back to Mitsubishi dealerships.

Outside the podium, the Nissan Leaf (288 registrations) keeps pumping out decent performances, even with the looming 62 kWh version just a few months away.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	2,195
2	Hyundai Kona EV	376
3	Kia Niro EV	323
3	Mit. Outlander PHEV	323
5	Nissan Leaf	288

Looking at the 2019 ranking, we have a new leader, with the Tesla Model 3 jumping to Numero Uno, leaving the previous leader Hyundai Kona EV some 1,500(!) units behind, while on the mainstream market, the Californian is now 5th, only behind the Ford Focus (#1, 3,567 units), VW Golf (#2, 3,506), VW Polo (#3, 3,402) and Kia Picanto (#5, 3,109). 

Will we see the Model 3 end the year in the mainstream podium?

The following positions remained mostly the same, with the only change being the BMW i3 surpassing its Renault Zoe rival, climbing to #7.

Outside the Top 10, the ranking is more dynamic, with the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV jumping six positions, to #12, with the 94 deliveries of March being the nameplate's best result since December 2016.  

After the December deliveries tsunami (2,621 units, best result ever for a BEV), that allowed it to be the #2 last year, the Jaguar i-Pace is back at the ranking, in #19, thanks to 40 deliveries in March.

In the large luxury car class, we have the #15 BMW 530e (33 units, 11% of all 5-Series sales) ahead, but the Porsche Panamera PHEV was up one position to #18, thanks to 35 registrations, the nameplate best result since last August, with the PHEV version representing 77% of all Panamera sales. As for the Model S, it is out of the Top 20, with just 32 units (-96% YoY).

As for Luxury SUVs, the 2019 Best Seller is the Land Rover Range Rover PHEV, with 114 registrations, ahead of the Volvo XC90 PHEV (99 units), but last month the Audi e-Tron registered 40 units and became that month Best Seller, so it won't be a surprise that a few months from now we will see the German SUV not only in the Top 20, but maybe ahead of this category. For the ones asking about the Model X, news are not at all good, with only 22 units this first quarter, down 94% YoY, but more on this below. 

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is the new leader (26%), followed by Hyundai (15%), and Volkswagen (10%) in 3rd.

Just outside the podium, Nissan (9%), Kia and Mitsubishi (both with 8%) are all looking for a chance to jump into a medal spot.

Source: RAI Vereniging and EV Volumes

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	2,707
2	Volvo S/V60 PHEV	1,462
3	BMW 3-Series	1,031
4	Mercedes C-Class	942
5	Audi A4	529

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now starting to be written, comparing the first quarter Model 3 deliveries against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that it has managed to kick some Premium ass outrun all of them, although the ICE models behavior differs from one to another, while the Audi A4 registrations sank 47%, and the Mercedes and BMW nameplates stagnated (+2% and +5%, respectively), the Volvo S/V60 twins are up 76%, and its PHEV version is still in ramp up mode, representing just 9% of all sales.

Once the production of the Swede PHEV Wagon is in cruise mode, expect it to be responsible for at least some 20% of the model sales, helping it to run ahead of the Germans, although the revised BMW 330e, said to start selling in the Summer, could help the sports sedan to overcome the Volvo model, in the race for #2.

Large luxury cars, by fuel source

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	BMW 5-Series ICE	695
2	Mercedes E-Class ICE	340
3	Volvo S/V90 ICE	328
4	Audi A6 ICE	256
5	BMW 530e PHEV	86

With the luxury EVs losing the generous fiscal incentives in January, sales were bound to tank this year, to the profit of ICE models and PHEVs. 

And so it did, while a year ago, the Tesla Model S was in podium seats, disputing the leadership with the BMW 5-Series, sales (32 deliveries) are only a fraction of what they were last year.

Will the Model S recover? I guess we will only know, once the much-awaited refresh has landed.

Large luxury SUVs, by fuel source

Pl	Model	2019 Sales
1	BMW X5 ICE	290
2	LR Range Rover  Sport PHEV	114
3	Volvo XC90 ICE	104
4	Volvo XC90 PHEV	99
5	LR Range  Rover PHEV	63

With the luxury EVs losing the generous fiscal incentives in January, BEV sales were bound to tank this year, to the profit of ICE models and PHEVs. 

And so it did, while a year ago, the Tesla Model X was dominating front and center this category, this time, with only 22 deliveries, it is far behind the front runners.

Unlike the car category, where ICE is still king, here on behemoth-land, plugin hybrids are having a relevant part, while the leader BMW X5 is all ICE (for now), the runner-up Range Rover Sport PHEV represents 88% of the nameplate sales, while the Volvo XC90 has its sales evenly distributed between the ICE version and the PHEV, and finally, the Range Rover has 76% of all its sales also coming from the PHEV version.

But one can always say that these nameplates weren't affected by the fiscal changes that happened at the end of the year, so it would be natural that they jumped ahead of the Model X.

But what about the 60 Jaguar i-Pace and 42 Audi e-Tron registered so far this year? 

Both had the same fiscal cuts, and yet they are ahead of the Tesla Model X, despite the first being too expensive for what it is, while the second has a poor efficiency, when it comes to range.

I think this is just one symptom of a larger trend regarding the Model S and X, that the Tesla Q1 2019 sales report shed some light on it, while the Model 3 part wasn't surprising, with deliveries up YoY, the fact that the Model S/X were down over 50% is worrying and it is also proof that Tesla demand is finite, after all.

There are several reasons to explain this:

- First, there are fiscal issues (both models lost benefits in the US and NL); 

- Second, there is the long rumoured Q2/Q3 '19 refresh of both nameplates;

- Third, is the fact that Tesla now has competition, something it lacked for several years, and although they are not (yet) at their level, spec-wise, they are good/different enough for many to prefer one of the just landed BEVs, or wait for those that are about arrive, like the much antecipated Porsche Taycan; 

- The fourth reason is specific to the Model S and is called cannibalization, by its slightly smaller, younger and much cheaper Model 3 sibling, that has almost the same range and can charge at a higher rate, being also the ultimate "hot EV" nowadays.

And one final note on the future plans of the Model S, there have been rumours on pulling the Model S upmarket.

I believe it is a mistake, not only because the Mercedes S-Class type of customer would be less inclined to buy a Tesla, but also because it is a limited market (+/- 80,000 units/year for the S-Class), while the lower class has a lot more more room to grow.

With the current Model S sitting somewhere in no man's land, between the E-and-F segments, a bit like the Audi A7, it would be wise for Tesla to go down a little and face the Mercedes E-Class and BMW 5-Series face to face, like the Model 3 is doing in its own category.

But for that, Tesla would need to launch a competitive Standard version of the Model S, with some 300 miles range and selling for about 70-75,000 euro. 

Impossible? Would ruin those models profitability? I have no idea, but one thing i do know: Tesla Model S/X demand limits are now being discovered, and the maker has to decide what it wants to be, either a niche maker, like Porsche, and have high margins in their vehicles, or going after BMW and Mercedes, at the cost of (some) profitability.

Spain March 2019

Tesla Model 3 tsunami (Spanish edition)

The Spanish plug-in market hit 2.084 units in March, and the interesting thing is that both powertrain technologies have helped to this good result, as not only BEVs jumped 192% YoY, to 1.301 units, but PHEVs have also surged in March, having registered 1.721 units, up 157%, so plugin hybrids in Spain aren't yet hit by the doom and gloom that is hitting them elsewhere.  

Looking at market share, March reached 1.7%, with 1.1% belonging to BEVs, while the remaining 0.6% comes from PHEVs.

As for last month best sellers, the big news was the first full deliveries month of the Tesla Model 3, with 396 units, being a big contributor for the 62% BEV share within plugin sales. 

While it wasn't enough to beat the all-time record (554 units, in October '17, by the Renault Zoe), this Model 3 performance allowed it to jump to the leadership, surpassing the Nissan Leaf, that surprinsingly enough, had a record performance last month, with 278 registrations, an outstanding feat, considering the arrival of the 62 kWh version in a couple of months, and the possible damage that the Model 3 could have done to it.

If the Leaf is growing and has a shot at racing the Model 3 for the 2019 title, its Renault Zoe relative is on the opposite trend, down 63% to 56 units, and dropping in the 2019 ranking to #7. It seems the 2017 & '18 Best Seller won't be able to make a treble.

The BMW Group had a strong month, with the Mini Countryman PHEV scoring a record 178 units, pulling it to #4, while the BMW i3 delivered 118 registrations, the nameplate best result in 18 months, allowing it to climb to #6, and finally, the BMW 225xe A. Tourer delivered 166 units, a new year best, jumping to #8.

Other models climbing positions are the VW e-Golf, now #9, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV has broken its personal best, with 79 registrations, allowing it to climb to #11, and the Kia Niro PHEV is now #15.

Three recently landed long range BEVs are already showing up on the Top 20, with the promising Audi e-Tron in #17, followed by the Jaguar i-Pace, in #18, and the Kia Niro EV in #19.

If the Tesla Model 3 deliveries are jumping through the roof, the remaining lineup is sinking, with both model sales shrinking over 50% YoY. If the Model S drop (only 7 units last month) is easily explained by the cannibalization of its younger sibling Model 3, the Model X (11 deliveries) drop is not so simple to explain, as the Model 3 is not direcly impacting its sales, and the Model Y is still some time off. 

I believe the most immediate reason for the Model X sales slump is called Audi e-Tron, despite not being as good or efficient as the Californian, the fact is that it is an alternative, something that so far it didn't existed, until now, if you wanted a large EV, you only had Tesla to choose from, wether you liked or not, so the American maker had that segment of the market all to itself. Not anymore. 

On the manufacturers ranking, the race is pretty hot, with Tesla (14%) the new Number One, followed by Nissan (13%), while Hyundai (11%) is now a close Third, and the #4 BMW, with 10% share, is seeking to recover a podium place.

Sweden March 2019

Tesla Model 3 tsunami (Swedish edition)

We start the report on the Model 3 European tide, in Sweden, with the local plug-in market up 64% YoY, to a record 4.360 registrations, 1.005 of them belonging to the Tesla Model 3, placing the PEV share at a record 14,7%, with BEVs alone having 7% share, and pulling the 2019 plugin share to a record 13,4%. 

Meanwhile, the mainstream market continues sliding, dropping 19% last month, with the WLTP blues seemingly to have no end in sight.

Has Sweden hit peak-ICE? It seems so, at least.

Right now buyers are running away from fossil-fueled vehicles, with diesels dropping to 35% share last month (-31% YoY), and even HEVs are suffering (-22% YoY), with a stampede-like movement into plugins, and BEVs in particular (in March they were up 183%), but because BEVs are still model/production constrained, it seems many people prefer to buy a PHEV, or wait in line for a BEV, than to buy/lease another ICE-based vehicle.

This is starting to become a trend, once a market is regularly at over 10%, the mainstream market starts to suffer and decline, as people move away from regular petrol/diesel vehicles.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	1.005
2	Mit. Outlander PHEV	642
3	Kia Optima PHEV	383
4	Kia Niro EV	296
5	Volvo XC60 PHEV	237

Looking at last month Best Sellers, it was the expected Tesla Model 3 delivery tsunami, and although it wasn't enough to beat the all-time monthly record (1.249 units by the Outlander PHEV, back in December 2015), it was only the second time ever that a single plugin sold more than 1.000 units in one month.

Speaking of the Mitsubishi SUV, the nameplate is experiencing something of a renaissance in Sweden, registering 642 units, its best result since the aforementioned record result, in December 2015.

The Kia Optima PHEV, was 3rd, with 383 units, its best result this year, with the Korean midsizer seemingly not being impacted by the arrival of the Model 3. Of course, it helps that both are still in different price levels and the Kia is offered in the all important station wagon body...

But the real surprise came in #4, with the Kia Niro EV scoring a record 296 deliveries, allowing it to rise on position in the 2019 ranking, to #7.

Other Korean models are also on the rise, with the Kia Optima PHEV jumping two spots, to 4th, and the Hyundai Kona EV climbing one position, to #14, a much slower delivery ramp up than its Kia relative, the Niro EV.

In the top spots, the Tesla Model 3 shooted to 2nd place, only behind the leader Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, itself scoring strong results lately, so it will be interesting to see how long will the Japanese SUV resist the rise of the Silicon Valley EV. Bring on the popcorn, as this could be interesting.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the 47 registrations of the Audi e-Tron, that should show up on the Top 20 soon, as it ramps up production, making it the strongest candidate for the Luxury SUV title.   

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia is in the lead, with 25% share, now followed by Mitsubishi (16%, down 1%) and Tesla (13%), while Volvo stumbled (11%, down 7%), from Second Place, to outside the podium.

Tesla Model 3 and the ICE competition

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Volvo S/V60	2.031
2	Tesla Model 3	1.005
3	VW Passat	614
4	Kia Optima	411
5	Mercedes C-Class	407

Besides winning the monthly Best Selling PEV title in March, the Tesla Model 3 also made an instant impact in its midsize car category, only losing to the Volvo S/V60 series (quite naturally, i would say, i mean, its a Volvo...in Sweden), but staying well ahead of the VW Passat and the Kia Optima, with this last model also profiting from its plugin version (93% of all Optima sales) to have an unthinkable otherwise success in this market.

In #5 we have the first representative of the Three Marys, with the Mercedes C-Class showing up, with 407 registrations, or 41% of the Model 3 deliveries, with the three-pointes-star model appearing to be the one less affected by the Model 3 arrival, a trend that has been repeating in other markets where the Californian has landed.

A bit off-topic, but the 3rd best selling full-size car, the BMW 5-Series, registered 362 units, last month, so this is one of those markets where the Model S numbers can grow significantly, once a refresh is made to it.