|"I'm Coming to Get'ya, Leaf!"|
Models - Leaf Had To Sweat
The Nissan Leaf was the Best-Selling model in December, as it is the case during the whole year, but this time it had some real competition, having to perform its second-best-ever-month (5.976 units) in order to outrun the
Looking at the full year ranking, the first position was for the Nissan Leaf with a record 61.027 units (But it has lost 4% share regarding 2013...), followed by the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, which ended the year holding the Silver Medal by just 66 units, considering that the #3 Tesla Model S sales will be still subject to small changes in the future, the Outlander might have the #2 still in danger.
Behind them we see two models (Volt and Prius Plug-In) losing speed, particularly the japanese, that has failed to deliver a four-digit performance for the second consecutive month
In #7 the BYD Qin continues to impress (And improve its personal record month after month), while the Renault Zoe benefited from a record-shattering performance in December to climb one position to #9, we have to go back to 2013 to find the last time that the french hatch was so high in the ranking, while the #3 in the Monthly Ranking won by the Zoe was a first for the french hatch.
Because this is a full year edition, the ranking includes cars from #11 to #20, where we can see some interesting things, like two rising stars coming from China (Zotye E20 and BAIC E200 EV), or the VW e-Up! rising in the ranking, but also some major dives, like the Volvo V60 Plug-In (From #7 to #17), the Renault Kangoo ZE (#10 to #18) or the continued fall from the Mitsubishi I-Miev, from #5 in 2012, to #12 the next year and now in #19...The I-Miev needs an urgent replacement, Mitsu.
Looking at the EV Market with the traditional segmentation, let's see who are the Best-Sellers in each Segment:
* Micro-Car - Kandi EV;
* A-Segment - VW e-Up!;
* B-Segment - BMW i3;
* C-Segment - Nissan Leaf;
* D-Segment - Ford Fusion Energi;
* E/F-Segment - Tesla Model S;
* SUV - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV;
* MPV - Ford C-Max Energi;
* Pick-Up - Mitsubishi Minicab Miev;
* Sports Car - BMW i8.
|2||Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV||2.165||31.689||10||5|
|3||Tesla Model S||5.498||31.623||10||4|
|4||Chevrolet Volt (1)||1.608||21.293||7||2|
|5||Toyota Prius Plug-In||915||19.018||6||3|
|8||Ford Fusion Energi||805||11.719||4||9|
|Kandi K10 (2-Seater EV)|
Ford C-Max Energi
Chery QQ3 EV
Smart Fortwo ED
BAIC E150 / E200 EV
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Renault Kangoo ZE
Mitsubishi I-Miev (2)
|The Ambitious Looking BYD Tang|
Manufacturers - Mitsubishi #3
In the Manufacturers ranking, we've got Nissan again in #1 with 20% share (It has lost 3% Share), followed from a far by Mitsubishi with 12% share and Tesla, with 10%.
Below the Podium, there were some last minut changes, with Chevrolet surpassing Ford and reaching #4, while BMW lost not one, but two positions in one month(!), dropping to #9, to the benefit of BYD (#7) and Renault (#8), both with record months in December.
Looking below the #10 Kandi, we can see two rising powers: Zotye in #13 and BAIC in #15, both of them with Top 10 ambitions in 2014, while Volkswagen has been slowly getting closer to the Top 10, it has ended the year in #11, while down below Volvo is agonizing in #16, down 8 positions regarding last year.
(2) - Includes Peugeot iOn and Citröen C-Zero
Forecasting is always a tricky subject, so instead of analyzing model by model, brand by brand, i've decided to have a look at each Automotive Group and their perspectives for 2015:
* Renault-Nissan - As the undisputed leader of the plug-in market, with some 220.000 units sold, making 30% of the market, there is a lot at stake with the competition launching many new models, while the Alliance has...Zero this year. Well, not quite, the renewed Zoe and the further production increase of the e-NV200/Evalia should help things, but there's two important question marks: How much will the Venucia version of the Leaf benefit from China's growth, and how high can the new Zoe go? I'm going for 95K units in 2015, up from 82K last year;
* Mitsubishi - Despite a being a major player in the Plug-In market, truth is that the Japanese carmaker is relatively small in the fishtank of Global Auto Groups, and that is starting to show, now that they finally have a hit on their hands, with the Outlander PHEV, they don't seem to have the ability to get the full profit from it, especially by entering in the largest SUV market in the World, the USA. Without it, their growth perspectives are severely lowered, while the rest of their offerings are starting to get a bit vintage...They need to increase their batteries production. Fast. And significantly. Because of this, i see some 50K units this year.
* Tesla - If Mitsu is small fish, the american brand is a just-out-of-the-shell-baby croc...A baby croc with a rock-star attitude wanting to (someday) swallow Big Whites whole in one piece, that's how ambitious they are. Fact is those large sharks (And everybody in that fishtank) are taking a close eye on it, hoping to smother it before it's too
|This angry-looking 2nd Gen Volt has a lot to live up to|
* Ford - As it has been evident in the last couple of months, small range PHEV have been hit by the low price of gas, and without any major news coming in 2015, they will have to sell at discount prices if they want to keep sales at the same level of 2014. So, 23K.
* Toyota - Just like Ford, they have been hit with lowering sales, with the additional problem of an ageing car (The Prius has been here since 2010) and the general disinterest from the MotherShip, now with eyes only to its new baby, the Fuel Cell Mirai. I'm thinking 13K for the whole year.
* BYD - If some seem to be disregarding the market, others are coming with everything they've got. Besides the continuation of the success story Qin (18K for this year), and the upcoming Tang, there are more two SUV's promised, as well as an sucessor to the e6, all in the same year! The brand is known for delaying a bit their launches but all in all, i would go for some 35K this year for BYD.
* BMW - Now that they have experimented the taste of plug-in success, they are coming back for more, now in the form of a PHEV SUV, the X5 will surely increase significantly the sales volume, the question will be: "By how much?". I would go for 5K for the X5 PHEV plus 25K for the i-branded cars.
|Geely is looking to win some phat profits on the back of this |
* Geely - Hot on the heels of the Kandi 2-seater EV success, there are insiders saying that four(!) new models are expected this year, even if this doesn't comes into reality, i can see some 20K coming from Kandi. As Volvo is part of Geely, one has also to consider the impact of the new XC90 PHEV on sales, so i would go for 5K for the SUV going together with an additional 5K for the existing V60 Plug-In, making a total of 30K for the Geely Group.
* VW - The Largest of the Large Great Whites in the Auto Industry is still relatively small in the EV Segment, but as the interest slowly rises and their deep pockets are starting to be used here, the lineup is starting to grow significantly, especially on the PHEV formula, i think the Golf GTE will be a (relative) sales success and will probably hit the 10K bar, and with the help of the Passat GTE and the rest of the lineup, sales will probably double and reach 25K.
* Daimler - While Smart has seen a small but constant uptick in sales, the new Generation Fortwo ED should help sales to increase to some 8K, but the real challenge is Mercedes, after a 2014 (way) below expectations, one wonders how far can they go with their plug-in offerings, with the all important addition of the C-Class PHEV, one can imagine Mercedes getting up to 12K this year.
Finally, looking at the market as a whole, i would think that the market will continue to grow at a steady rate, reaching some 450K units by the end of this year.
You wrote "In #3 the Prius Plug-In finally won over Tesla's Model S, with a difference of just 989 units between them. "ReplyDelete
something is wrong here...
450k cars in 2015 compared to 315 in 2014 would mean nearly 43% increase. Man this would be cool.ReplyDelete
Awfully for tesla but i think they will have the X ready for sale in december. But the AWD Model S shall bump up sales anyway. 288 miles (460km) Highway range, this is crazy awesome.
Thanks for your great work.
Germany's ZSW estimated the global stock of plug-in electric vehicles at 405k units at the beginning of 2014. Adding the 300k + accounted for 2014, the global stock has already passed 700k, and based on Jose's forecast the 1 million milestone will be reached 2/3s into 2015, that is between August and September 2015.ReplyDelete
Check here for the 400k estimate:
Thanks for your effort Jose, and keep the hard work,
How do you come to the conclusion that 315k is the total sales number in 2014? There are more electric cars being sold than just these top 20 models. What am I missing?
I did my own count by country (at least the ~ top 10), and the figure adds up to about 335K (US 120K, China 75K, Japan 32K, Norway 20K, Netherlands 15K, France 15K, UK 14.5K, Germany 13K, Swden ~5K, Canada ~5K, and there are about a dozen EU countries with sales betwee 1K & 2K, plus Australia 1K). So, you are right, the total is higher. Jose is only adding the top 20, and there are more than 40 models on sale worldwide!Delete
Don't be mistaken by the 75k in China, those numbers include heavy-duty vehicles (Buses, etc), the real ligh-duty-vehicle is smaller, around 60-something thousand.Delete
And yes, while i only publish the Top 20, i count all the 60-odd models on sale in the 40-ish countries where plug-ins are available.
But i would think that the real number will be some 10% higher than the 315K.
Hi Jose, thanks a lot for your continuous efforts! I am a big fan of your blog.ReplyDelete
Could you kindly post an overview out of your databases, in which you show a top20+ list of countries for thei total yearly sales and the EV penetration in %. Also, if you can cover the last 3 years or so would be great to see the development in the individual markets.
I think such an overview would be appreciated by many readers.
Thanks and keep up the good work!
Please send me an email (firstname.lastname@example.org) and we can discuss access to the kind of data you have mentioned.Delete
How can Chevrolet Volt have 11% when Tesla Model S have 10% even if Tesla have sold 40% more? You have little to change when it comes to the shears i thinkReplyDelete
320 713 plug-in vehicles worldwide
The Largest of the Large Great Whites in the Auto Industry is Toyota.ReplyDelete
A bit out of place, but I got to tell somewhere. Actually, when it comes to Daimler, a lot is going on!!
January, baby! Trice as good last year! Although, I was expecting a bit more, especially from the LEAF, but the news this year is that Daimler and Porsche have come to play, Mercedes-Benz especially!
1 Mercedes-Benz S Class PHEV
13 Mercedes-Benz E Class PHEVs
14 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEVs
2 Porsche Cayenne PHEVs
1 Audi A3 e-tron
2 BMW i8s
4 BMW i3s (2 are REx)
105 Nissan LEAFs
8 Renault ZOEs
1 Volkswagen e-Golf
Total is 151 plugins. 0.50% overall. Woo!
0.38% for EVs
0.12% for plugin-hybrids and ''unknowns'' (beepbeep.ie is still unrefined, half of the Outlander PHEV were unknown or plugin-hybrid.)
Just yesterday afternoon did I see a new, silver i8. Funny how I'm seeing more of them than the i3.
Irish numbers of course.Delete
There might be a big flaw with the E Class figures... It says http://www.beepbeep.ie/stats/?sYear%5B%5D=2015&sYear%5B%5D=&sRegType=1&sMonth%5B%5D=&sMonth%5B%5D=&sMake%5B%5D=Mercedes-Benz&sRange%5B%5D=E%2BCLASS&x=41&y=8there's 13 here. Hopefully, it might correct itself soon.Delete
Are you sure those E-Class hybrids have a plug?Delete
Hey, man. Sorry for not replying sooner. I soon got hold what the problem was. I'm guessing that it's most likely the C-Class. Even so, this is annoying the hell out of me with beepbeep.ie. It says this while the Irish Merck-Benz site doesn't even show that they have plugins. Perhaps we should wait another week, in case they refine their numbers.Delete
I'm just listing Mercedes-Benz based on my judgement of how the website has listed some PHEVs as 'unknowns' and others a plug-in hybrids.
For the Outlander, the 8 unknowns are PHEVs given that they could only total the 14 units that can only get 120g/km or below.
Others include... http://www.beepbeep.ie/stats/?sYear%5B%5D=2015&sYear%5B%5D=&sRegType=1&sMonth%5B%5D=&sMonth%5B%5D=&sMake%5B%5D=BMW&sRange%5B%5D=I8&x=45&y=7
They really just made a hames of it!
Jose, the Renault-Nissan Alliance just published their official EV sales for 2014 just in case you would like to fine tune your estimates. This report confirms that the Leaf global sales passed 158K in 2014.ReplyDelete
Se here: http://www.nissan-global.com/EN/NEWS/2015/_STORY/150204-01-e.html?rss
Congratulations, your estimates were pretty close to the official figures. Keep up the hard work, we your readers really appreciate your effort.
Be careful with Kandi figures. KNDI is under investigation by US federal regulators at the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.ReplyDelete
It seems that part of the confusion may be that KNDI doesn't actually make EVs. They resell batteries and other EV parts to a 50%-owned related party company that actually assembles the cars. Then this co sells them on to 10%-owned rental car operator.
Could you please provide a link to the investigation you cite? ThanksDelete
KNDI has disclosed an investigation by the Securities & Exchange Commission, in their most recent Form 10-Q on page 69.Delete
Item 1. Legal Proceedings
On November 21, 2013, the Company received a subpoena from the SEC seeking the production of various categories of documents in an investigation entitled In the Matter of Kandi Technologies Group, Inc. The Company has cooperated fully with the SEC's investigation and intends to continue doing so by providing whatever documents and other information requested. The Company has no information at present regarding the duration or outcome of the investigation.
Do any other EV manufacturers in top 20 besides KNDI make all of sales to themselves?ReplyDelete
Kandi is going to be huge growers in this space in coming years, with govt subs.ReplyDelete
Agree that we see China subsidizing EVs, but the subs do not actually get paid to Kandi as a battery reseller. PRC national subs are paid to the JV Company to which KNDI resells batteries and even Kandi has said that the local subs will be paid to car rental company operator and not to them.Delete
KNDI shareholders certainly do not benefit from subsidies.
I believe this subsidy situation may actually be why Kandi has increasingly negative operating cash flow as they ramped up production in 2014.
We all want EVs to succeed, but Kandi doesn't look a supplier that will make it at this rate.
Kandi is an amazing story! Former go kart maker now among top 10 for electric vehicles with almost no R&D investment. You've come a long way baby.ReplyDelete
These Kandi-related comments gave me an idea, what about posting an article with only one phrase: "Kandi. Discuss."ReplyDelete
It would probably reach dozens of comments per se, Kandi looks to be have more Love/Hate relations than Tesla itself...
This blog is just here to inform EV industry progress, and not serve as an investment advice platform.
Amazed though to see people saying "We all want EVs to succeed" but betting against Kandi since 2010 hoping the share price will collapse.
I just wanted to commend your work and thank you for providing so accurate data on a timely fashion. Just wanted to let you knoe that I used your 2014 sales figure for Tesla in a recent article published by Seeking Alpha, one of the leading stock exchange web sites of the world. As it turned out, your figure happened to be quite close to the actual result Tesla gave a few hours later. See: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2906656-tesla-outperformed-my-guidance-in-2014-and-is-likely-to-catch-up-with-it-in-2015
The electric cars market grows more and more in the world and there are many models that are presented continuously by the car manufacturers. As stated in the article the Nissan Leaf is certainly the best-selling electric car not only in USA but around the world. This car has many qualities. First of all, provides a mileage of about 200 km, is also a car equipped with a very advanced technology. In fact, the Nissan Leaf can be heated at distance, has an excellent integrated navigation system, has a seven inch screen, which even shows images from the cameras (mounted on board) to facilitate the parking and has a system that allows to heat the seats. On the market there are three versions of the car (Visia, Acenta, Tekna) at a price of about 35,000 dollars. What do you think about the Nissan Leaf?ReplyDelete
I can see you love the Nissan Leaf, actually the Leaf was a car that at first it didn't catched my eye, for whatever reason it reminded me of a frog, but after driving it and discovering the inside of the car, i was very much impressed, it does everything a regular compact car is supposed to and with their prices falling (Just haggle with Nissan's dealers), the only thing keeping it from being a perfect all-rounder is the range, 200 kms range is still a bit short for a car its size.Delete
That final reason is why i still haven't bought one (Yet).