Norway September 2017 (Updated)

"Ampera who?!? I eat two of these for breakfast..."

48% Share!

The Norwegian plug-in market reached 48% share last month, a new all-time high, thanks to a record 6.524 registrations, up 43% YoY, leading to an increase in the YTD tally to some 43.000 registrations, up 29% YoY, pulling the 2017 plug-in share to new heights, now at 37%. Will it reach 40% by year end?

Interestingly, BEVs (+33%) are growing faster than PHEVs (+24%), a trend that probably will be more significant in 2018, once the new Leaf arrives, along with the Tesla Model 3 and the remaining next generation of dedicated BEVs.

Looking at September Top Sellers, this sales surge was concentrated in three models, with both Teslas and the VW e-Golf surpassing the 900 units mark. Of these three models, the most surprising performance was from the Model S, that with 1.007 deliveries, had its best result in 30 months (1.140 units in March '15), in fact, last month Tesla delivered as much Model S as in the previous eight months...


I guess a lot of Norwegians decided to wait for the Model 3 unveil and after that, decided to go for the Model S. (Given the chance, i would go for the Model S too, it's just a better car, especially on the inside, for some reason the Model 3 interior reminds me the Johnny Cab).

An amusing factoid on the BMW i3 registrations, last month a Rex unit was registered, the first of the year.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model S	1.007
2	Tesla Model X	996
3	Volkswagen e-Golf	949
4	BMW i3	313
5	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV	292

Looking at the YTD ranking, the most important news were the rise of both Tesla nameplates, with the Model X climbing to #5 and the Model S jumping to #8, while in the second half of the ranking, two Volvos finally started to pump out in decent numbers, with the S/V90 PHEV twins and the XC60 PHEV delivering over 200 units each and going to #23 and #24, respectively.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (22%, down 1%) is in the leadership, with BMW (17%) in Second, while Tesla (11%, up 3%) surpassed Mercedes (10% share, down 2%) in the race for the Third Spot.

Footnote: Five additional Hyundai FCEVs and one Mirai were added in September, with the Hyundai SUV leading the 2017 race by 20 to 12...Despite being an older model. Sharewise, FCEVs have 0,03% share of the market.

Pl	Norway	Sep.	YTD	%	'16Pl
1	Volkswagen e-Golf	949	4.531	11	2
2	BMW i3	313	3.748	9	5
3	Nissan Leaf	111	2.911	7	4
4 5 6	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV Tesla Model X Volkswagen Passat GTE	292 996 211	2.739 2.694 2.652	6 6 6	1 11 6
7 8	Mercedes GLC350e Tesla Model S	156 1.007	2.177 2.023	5 5	21 8
9	Volkswagen Golf GTE	229	1.885	4	3
10 11	Renault Zoe BMW 225xe Active Tourer	38 194	1.880 1.525	4 4	10 12
12	Mercedes B250e	84	1.416	3	9
13 14 15 16 17	Volvo XC90 T8 Hyundai Ioniq Electric Audi A3 e-Tron Mercedes C350e Opel Ampera-e	169 76 153 158 28	1.301 1.290 1.224 944 923	3 3 3 2 2	19 20 7 15 N/A
18 19	Audi Q7 e-Tron BMW X5 40e	84 48	787 752	2 2	22 16
20	Volvo V60 Plug-In	15	618	1	17
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30	Volkswagen e-Up! Kia Soul EV Volvo S/V90 PHEV Volvo XC60 PHEV BMW 530e Toyota Prius PHV Kia Optima PHEV BMW 330e Mini Countryman PHEV Mercedes E350e Others	83 58 246 215 59 40 67 17 90 34 314	582 545 400 362 336 334 281 275 260 204 1.376	1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 3	14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 39 24 N/A N/A
	TOTAL	6.524	42.976	100

Source: elbil.no; ofvas.no

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model S	1.007
2	Tesla Model X	996
3	Volkswagen e-Golf	949
4	Toyota Yaris	347
5 6 7 8 9 10	BMW i3 Toyota RAV4 Mitsu. Outlander PHEV Toyota Auris Volvo S/V90 PHEV Toyota C-HR	312 299 292 263 246 237

With 48% PEV share in September, the general market is showing the electrification effort, for the first time ever, there are no ICE models in the Top 10, with four HEVs, two PHEVs and four BEVs.

This month we have three BEV models on the podium, with both Teslas and the VW e-Golf high above everyone else, with 600 units more than the Fourth Placed Toyota Yaris, with another BEV, the BMW i3,  closing the Top 5.

Two plug-in hybrids (Outlander PHEV and S/V90 PHEV) and three additional Toyota hybrids (RAV4 and C-HR) follow.

Having reached a "NO ICE" Top 10, the next step will be to replace HEVs for plug-ins. This year should be difficult to achieve it, maybe in 2018?


And now an interesting contribution from our reader Terje:


Norway entering early majority and now we start to see the consequences

In order to drive the adoption through the early majority phase, the government must be backed by the decision-makers in each city. At this stage the local politics in each city really matters.

So by looking at this site:

http://www.ofvas.no/aktuelt-2/nullutslippsbiler-i-fylkene-article738-396.html

(Some of the rates are really odd, but the core numbers can be utilized to find adoption rate per region)

 

You will see that there are two cities in Norway that are leading the race:

Oslo: Capital of Oslo and Akershus regions

Bergen. Capital of  Hordaland region

 This article shows how Oslo is now taking the lead in EV adoption:

http://elbil.no/oslo-kommune-baner-vei-for-elbilskiftet/

 

The keys are

* At early majority home chargers for those that do NOT have their own garage become critical;

* At early majoriy, polution fees for ICE cars become acceptable and are used to meet EU pollution regulations;

And indications are that this is now driving EV rate in September for Oslo and Bergen, and expectation is that this will further increase when winter season with it's higher air pollution issues arrive in October.

This is based on log's for the tollroads around the 4 largest cities in Norway. And you can see exactly how the BEV share has increased.

The differences are based on different factors

* Oslo and Bergen have the highest payment in the toll-ring

* Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger are in fjord areas with ferries. In these cases EV ferry discount increases the incentive

* Bergen is surrounded by mountains (It's called the citiy between the seven mountains). These trap the pollution during winter time. Due to this, there are restriction one ICE cars on some winter-days in Bergen

* There are different EV parking rules between the cities.

When this number cross 20% BEV will need to start paying road-toll.

The reduction in Trondheim the last year is due to BEV needed to start paying for city parking as downtown became flooded by long-term parking BEVs..

And the main conclusions are: As Norway now enters early majority, the EV incentives at city level becomes more and more important, as incentives must be removed because of the large numers of BEVs and new ICE fees and taxes can be added because the Green alternative has become so obvious, and access to shared chargers is critical for EV owners that do not own their own garage.

And this wave will hit Europe in 3-7 yrs...