With Tesla said to wait for July to hit the 200k registrations mark in the US, one wonders how many Model 3 units Tesla had in
stock transit in order to do so, while no one really knows the final numbers, if nothing else, because June hasn't ended yet, one thing is certain, the thousands stocked during June and late May will all be delivered in July, resulting in a historic flood of deliveries that month, but the question i would like to make is:
How many Model 3's will be delivered in July?
Always an optimistic, i predicted some 35k deliveries...
Our reader Illia said 23k.
And how about you?
I`ll calculate again :)ReplyDelete
Production: 32K had been already made + 5K will be made by the end of June + 8K will be made during first two weeks of July (cars that will be made later, will make it to the customers in August).
Delivery: 19K by May, 3K in June, 2K in Canada = 25K
So, delivery in July must be 20K.
I will meet halfway and go 29k. :pReplyDelete
If the estimated numbers are more or less correct, it cant be less than 20k.ReplyDelete
My estimation = 22K
I would expect 20 k, too, as this equates to 4 weeks x 5 k / week - as promised to the share holders.ReplyDelete
15k - they'll be close to 5k/week production but not quite. Also i do not think they are hoarding any significant(perhaps 2-3k) number simply because they do not have enough parking lots.ReplyDelete
You are wrong, the registrations in June will be very high, more than 10000 but for July it is very badly left and the objective of 5000 units produced per week will not be reached. I bet on 6000 registrations (only) for the month of July.ReplyDelete
Interesting bet! If they could make "only" 3500 cars per week(as they supposedly done at least once), they would produce 14k in July... Only if they really exhaust all the stockpile, and have 2 week delivery time, they could deliver as little as 7k in July.Delete
Another question is, that we likely would never know the exact delivery number for July 2018, as Tesla reports only quarterly numbers, and all the "InsideEv" or "Cleantechnica" are .well... estimates...
Tesla even making ~714 Model 3s a day for 31 days will only produce 22134 in July. From config to delivery usually means cars made in the last week to week and a half of the month are not delivered that month. So I say out of the 22134 model 3s built, maybe only 15,000 of them are delivered. Add that to the 4000-5000 Tesla is producing in June but not delivering until July, I have 20,000 or so Model 3s being delivered for July. This is of course Tesla can produce ~714 Model 3s a day or 5000 a week.ReplyDelete
I think near 20.000 but below.ReplyDelete
20000 - 21000. Sorry to be the pessimist, but I think Tesla will need a second paint shop to exceed that, and I think construction of the second paint shop will take two months. I expect, however, that September's delivery rate will be mindblowingly high.ReplyDelete
Tesla filed with the state of California saying that it is intended to only paint 250,000 units in 2018. While Tesla can update this number, the company is pinching pennies. It makes no sense to spend money on a paint shop especially if you might not produce 250,000 units in 2019.Delete
I would say 25k if they stockpile in June, 15k otherwiseReplyDelete
A figure close to 22,000 is feasible with a deviation of 1,000 units negative or positive.ReplyDelete
As long as they keep increasing then I'm happy. But for July I would be very happy with 13k deliveries.ReplyDelete