Sunday, January 28, 2018

Europe December 2017

Image result for Renault Zoe vs tesla model S
The two best sellers in December

Tesla shines in (near) record month

The European passenger plug-in market ended the 2017 season with a (near) record performance, growing 11% regarding the same period last year, by registering some 33.700 units, just a whisker below the all-time record of December 2015 (33.827) which, let’s not forget, was inflated by fiscal changes that happened in the Netherlands, Sweden and Denmark in January ‘16.

Looking at the full year performance, sales were up 38%, to over 306,000 units, this growth is even more significant against the backdrop of a stagnating (-5%) automotive market in Europe, making plug-ins the fastest growing segment in the Old Continent.

Good news in the BEV/PHEV breakdown, the BEV share grew to 49%, with all-electric cars growing faster (+45% vs +32%) than PHEVs. Expect this trend to continue this year, with BEVs recovering the upper-hand over plug-in hybrids.

Looking at PEV share, December hit a record 3% share, pulling the full year share further up, ending 2017 at 2%. Looking into 2018, we should see the plug-in share end around 4% share, with the last months of the year even reaching some 6%...

In December, Tesla did its usual last-month-of-quarter peak performance, but this time the resurgent Renault Zoe resisted the Tesla tide and won the Best Seller title, thanks to 3,380 deliveries.

Interestingly, the biggest surprise in December hasn’t reached the December Top 5, ending the month in Sixth. The Smart Fortwo ED scored 1,707 units, by far the nameplate best performance ever, it seems the tiny two seater is experiencing an overwhelming demand, with the Smart EV already having a six-months waiting list, suffering from a recurrent problem: “Not enough batteries”.


Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

Image result for white renault zoe 
#1 Renault Zoe – December marked a return to form for the French hatchback, growing 18% YoY, to 3.380 units, its best performance since June. Let’s hope the Renault EV doesn’t suffer from further production hiccups, delivering enough units to satisfy demand from now on. As for market individual performances, besides the usual good result at home (1,652 units), there were also big numbers in countries like Germany (301 units), Norway (422 units) and Spain (168 deliveries).   
Image result for white 2018 tesla model s 
#2 Tesla Model S – Mostly thanks to Norway (1,026 units, best result in 32 months), the Californian was Second Placed in December, with boatloads of S’s arriving to Europe (at the expense of starving some Asian markets), with deliveries up 74% YoY, to 2.451 units. Aside from the Norwegian specific case, it appears the Model 3 reveal not only didn’t hurt sales, but actually helped it, as many buyers preferred not to wait and buy now the older model, instead of waiting for ages for the Model 3 to cross The Pond. Looking at individual countries, besides Norway’s undisputed contribution, the Netherlands (400 deliveries, best result in four(!) years) and Germany (213) were also heavy contributors, in a generally positive month throughout the Continent for the Sports Sedan. Looking ahead, expect deliveries to return to more regular levels, but the end of 2018 could imply falling sales, as buyers see the Model 3 arrival getting closer and closer...

Image result for white 2018 tesla model x
#3 Tesla Model X – The Ugly Duckling of the Tesla stable had an opportunity to shine in December, growing 42% YoY to a record 2.156 units and ending the month in the podium. If the record sales Norway (1,429 deliveries) were the main driving force, other markets also impressed, with the Netherlands and the United Kingdom posting three digit numbers. The SUV/Minivan-that-thinks-is-a-sports-car is profiting from incoming improvements (eg, second and third row seats are now foldable…) and might start to leave the long shadow of the Model S older brother. 

Image result for white 2018 bmw i3 
#4 BMW i3 – The German Stormtrooper Hatchback was up 9% in December, to 1,979 units, a result explained by deliveries start of the facelifted version, that is still in early production phase. Still, it was enough to secure another Top 5 presence, and expect deliveries in 2018 to continue the growth path. Looking at individual countries, strong results in Norway, with 512 units (All BEV), and Germany, scoring 562 registrations, with Austria (124) and France (177) also helping along. Looking into 2018, expect deliveries to pick up in the coming months, as BMW returns to full production in its Leipzig plant and delivers as much i3 and i8 as the factory can deliver.

 Image result for white 2018 outlander phev
#5 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – After a close race with the Smart Fortwo ED(!), the Japanese SUV managed to secure the Fifth spot in December, but sales were down 23% YoY, to 1,837 registrations, but despite this setback, the Mitsubishi model continues to profit from its unique mix of space, AWD, range and affordability (40.000€), to make it popular in markets like the UK, Norway, Sweden, France or Germany. In the long run, it is not certain that the Japanese SUV can keep up with the general growing sales trend and stay among Europe’s top sellers.


Image result for bmw i  models
Bad Boyz

 
 
2017 Ranking – Renault Zoe wins Best Selling Model award, BMW wins manufacturers

The year 2017 crowned the Renault Zoe as the Best-selling plug-in in Europe, for the second time in a row, thanks to 31,410 registrations, up 43% regarding 2016, with Silver going for the ever improving BMW i3, winning its first podium position, with 20,855 units, while the two times winner Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV ended the year in Third, its lowest standing ever since it landed, 400 years ago in 2013, having seen its sales drop 10% regarding 2016, and an astounding 39% regarding 2015. Are wrinkles showing on the Mitsubishi plug-in?...

Still, the Japanese SUV was the Best-selling plug-in hybrid for the fifth time in a row, and with no other PHEV selling at the same pace, expect it to remain the plug-in hybrid king throughout 2018.

Speaking of 2018, the Zoe and i3 are sure to run with the VW e-Golf and others (Smart Fortwo ED?) for podium positions, while the First Position is sure to go to…For the new Nissan Leaf. Hot on the heels of 10,000 orders in Europe alone, the facelifted version will not only be the strongest candidate for the Best Seller award, but will also expand EVs further into mainstream buyers.

But back at December, the last month of the year hasn’t brought many changes to the 2017 ranking, with the most important being the Smart Fortwo ED jumping enough seats to reach the Top 20, while the 2017 Rookie of the Year, the BMW 530e, climbed to #16.

In a strong sales month, some models hit record performances, besides the aforementioned Smart Fortwo ED smashing month, and the Model X new deliveries record, two recently arrived Volvos have impressed, beating their own records: The XC60 PHEV registered an amazing 1,213 units, earning the Ninth Place in December, while the S/V90 PHEV twins had 594 deliveries.

Another rising stars are bubbling up below the Top 20, like the Porsche Panamera PHEV(!), that despite struggling from a common disease (Not enough batteries…), still registered 717 units last month, or the Mini Countryman PHEV, that with 752 units in December, had (yet) another record month.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BMW (18, down 1%) won the class trophy, repeating the 2016 title, followed by Volkswagen (12%) in Second Place, with Renault (11%, down 1%) ending in the last place of the podium. Interestingly, the 2016 podium was exactly the same…

Outside the podium places, Tesla (9%) was Fourth, ahead of Mercedes, with 8% share, replacing Nissan and Mitsubishi in the 2017 ranking.


Pl
Europe
December
YTD
%
1
Renault Zoe
3380
31410
10
2
BMW i3
1979
20855
7
3
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV
1837
19189
6
4
Nissan Leaf
486
17454
6
5
Tesla Model S
2451
15553
5
6
VW Passat GTE
1291
13599
4
7
VW e-Golf
1369
12895
4
8
Tesla Model X
2156
12630
4
9
Mercedes GLC350e
975
11249
4
10
BMW 225xe Act. Tourer
919
10805
4
11
BMW 330e
1180
10117
3
12
VW Golf GTE
983
9267
3
13
Audi A3 e-Tron
616
8356
3
14
Volvo XC90 T8 PHEV
725
7847
3
15
Mercedes C350e
399
6861
2
16
BMW 530e
825
6143
2
17
Hyundai Ioniq Electric
669
6117
2
18
BMW X5 40e
553
5944
2
19
Kia Soul EV
558
5551
2
20
Smart Fortwo ED
1707
5191
2

Others
8680
69110
22

TOTAL
33738
306143
100


8 comments:

  1. Thanks again for a full year of sales statistics.

    And I would love to see a top 40 of European sales. Mostly to see all the other choices their are beside the top sellers.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I made a Top 20, because it would be too much work analyzing 40 models, but in any case, here are some models to keep an eye in 2018, that were left out of the Top 20:

      Kia Niro PHEV (1.8k units in 2017)
      Mini Countryman PHEV (4.6k)
      Porsche Panamera PHEV (4k)
      Volvo S/V90 PHEV (2k)

      But especially keep a close eye on the Volvo XC60 PHEV (3.8k units in 2017), in December alone it registered 1203 units, so we could see run for a Top 10 position this year.

      Delete
  2. I would love to see StreetScooter Work sales...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The StreetScooter had some 4000 units registered, but more on that will be in the upcoming "2017 Europe LCV" post, coming in February.

      Delete
  3. Also I wanna see Japan's December sales...

    ReplyDelete
  4. Jose, you know a lot about this stuff. I am struck by how much the market shares vary around Europe (and around the world). Is it all due to subsidies and charges, or are there other factors, maybe climate change awareness? Would love to see you do a blog post looking at this.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I think it's a bit of everything, as sales expand out of the 1% niche, it depends on the personal motivation, but i can say the following:

    - Tesla buyers are heavily drawn on hipness, the fact that it's the coolest and most advanced car around, for many, the fact that it's an electric car is secondary;

    - PHEVs rely heavily on company/fleet car buyers, that are going after tax breaks, whenever they are available;

    - Some, particularly in Scandinavian countries, buy EVs for environmental reasons, While others just do the math and reach to the conclusion that, with tax benefits added, it makes finantial sense for them.

    -

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The fact that each country has its own tax policy also has a big impact, wether it is by having no benefit for Plug-ins (Spain), PHEV-friendly incentives (Belgium), or BEV-friendly incentives (Austria).

      Delete