Monday, February 19, 2018

Norway January 2018 (Updated)

Image result for i3 vs zoe vs egolf

BEVs to Power

After Sweden, we cross to the neighboring Norway, the template for EV adoption, where something unusual has happened this January, with the Norwegian mainstream market dropping 30%, despite no apparent economic disruption.

To understand this number, we have to look at the overall fuels share, in January, despite dropping 7% YoY, BEVs registered a record 23% share, staying only behind regular gas cars (26% share) as the best selling fuel source, but PHEVs stumbled 40% in sales, to just 17% share, with the announced demise of diesel-powered cars continuing, scoring only 20% share (Down from 24%, a year ago), placing diesel behind BEVs, with the remainder (14%) going to regular HEVs, which have fell in line with the market.

Also interesting to notice, is that a sizeable 890 second hand EVs were imported last month, a 80% jump YoY, with hundreds of Nissan Leaf and Kia Soul EV, among others, being imported from abroad, which could help explaining the current registration slowdown. 

What does this all mean? Basically, people are either waiting for new BEVs to arrive (Leaf II, Model 3, Kona BEV, etc) or in line to get a BEV from the current best-sellers (i3, e-Golf, Zoe), with the remaining models, including PHEVs, suffering with the current seismic changes. Do not be surprised if in a few months BEVs become the best selling fuel source...

Looking at the current crop of Best Sellers, there is a significant difference between the podium bearers and the Fourth Placed Hyundai Ioniq Electric, which probably has more to do with the chronic production constraints of the Korean model, than lack of demand.

In the remaining 16 positions, we see a tide of PHEVs, with only the quirky #9 Kia Soul EV and both Teslas belonging to the BEV team, making it only seven BEVs in the Top 20, when this technology outsold PHEVs by 3 to 2. The reason for this paradox? BEV sales are more concentrated, as there are less models to choose and even less if we restrict the choice to appealing nameplates, reading from this Top 20, they are just 4 models (The Top 4), with the Kia Soul EV satisfying a specific customer niche (City drivers with utility high on their priority list) and the Teslas going after wealthier wallets.

Looking elsewhere, January is usually a slow selling month, but nevertheless the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins scored 145 units, allowing it a Sixth Place, allowing it even to outsell the current Volvo shining star, the XC60 PHEV (135 units).
In the manufacturers ranking, last year winner Volkswagen (22%) is in Second Place, surpassed by BMW (24%), with the Third Spot going to Volvo, with 12%.

BMW i361461417
VW e-Golf51451414
Renault Zoe3343349
4Hyundai Ioniq BEV1701705
BMW 225xe Active Tourer1541544
6Volvo S/V90 PHEV1451454
7VW Passat GTE1411414
8Volvo XC60 PHEV1351354
9Kia Soul EV1191193
10VW Golf GTE1151153
11Tesla Model S1101103
12Tesla Model X1051053
12Mitsu. Outlander PHEV1051053
14Kia Niro PHEV1031033
15Kia Optima PHEV63632
16Audi A3 e-Tron62622
16Mercedes GLC350e62622
18Mini Countryman PHEV61612
19Volvo V60 PHEV58582
20Volvo XC90 PHEV57572

Sources: Ofvas and Elbil

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

1BMW i3614
2VW e-Golf514
3Renault Zoe334
4Toyota Yaris319
Toyota Auris
Toyota RAV4
Toyota C-HR
Hyundai Ioniq BEV
Peugeot 3008
Peugeot 5008
Ford Fiesta

With 40% PEV share, the general market is showing the electric road in unstoppable, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have four HEVs, four BEVs, with no PHEVs in sight.

It seems plug-in hybrids are suffering more than expected from the current BEV-fever, which might prove that their role as stop-gap technology into full EV is being proven.
This month the Toyota hybrids had a major comeback, with all four of them joining the Top 10, while at the bottom we see fresh faces, with the Ford Fiesta(?!?), and the Peugeot Crossovers climbing in the Best Sellers train.
After September having been the first "NO ICE" Top 10 month ever, will we see the same happening in March? I wouldn't bet against it.


  1. Hi Jose,

    Welcome back from your vacation. We missed you!!!

    It will be interesting to see what happens once the new Leaf becomes available in larger numbers. I am sure it will quickly rise to the top of the list. Just how soon is the question.

    Too bad the Model 3 probably won't be available in Norway this year, that would be an interesting race.

    By the way, thank you for doing this. This is one of my favorite blogs and the first one I check every day. I was on sever withdrawal for the last couple of weeks. LOL

    With more and more countries getting into EVs it may soon become an overwhelming task for you. You might want to look into getting some help soon.

    1. Thanks Stefan, it always feels good to be appreciated :)

      I hope to have someone helping me on this in the next couple of months, fingers crossed...

      Regarding the EV market, at least in Europe we are in a strange place, where most decent BEVs have (several)months long waiting lists, so it's more a question of supply than of demand.

      In that aspect, Nissan seems better than most in their ability to fulfill the 40k orders they have globally, so i would guess they will rise to the top of the Legacy OEM championship.

      Globally, being able to beat Tesla and the Chinese, now that's a whole different ball game...

  2. I can only agree with Stefan, you are doing great work José, and I know that many analysts, including myself, rely on your work. So thank you!

    1. Thank you Gregor,

      I would like to remind that this is a blog that does not garantee the reliability of data, several times changes happen after the report is published and they are not reflected here.

      For professional analysts, i would suggest the EV Volumes sister site, where you can subscribe all the data available here, but updated in real time.

      And i promise you a nice discount if you mention that you are a EV Sales reader! :)