Monday, November 4, 2019

Sweden October 2019

Resultado de imagem para 2019 Passat GTE sweden"
"Bam!!! Here i am!..." - said the unassuming Passat PHEV...

VW Passat GTE returns with a bang

The local plug-in market was up 31% YoY, to 3.404 registrations, with October scoring a 12% share for plugins, keeping the 2019 PEV share at 11%. 

Looking at last month Best Sellers, there was a significant reshuffle, with the three times Best Seller ('16, '17 and '18) VW Passat GTE coming back from the dead and shooting straight to #1, thanks to 428 units, its best result since August 2018

Expect the midsize Volkswagen to have a strong end of the year, due to fiscal changes in January 1st (CO2 emissions will have a higher tax), which should be enough for a Top 10 position this year.

But the most surprising performance was the 4th spot of the new BMW 330e, scoring 248 registrations, a new record for the nameplate in Sweden, which should also Grant it a Top 20 position this year.

To end the midsize trilogy, the Kia Optima PHEV was #2, with 353 units, proving that its Station Wagon body continues as popular as ever here.

Interestingly, for the first time this year, all Top 5 positions went to plugin hybrids, coinciding with the return en force of certain PHEV models, but also with an unusually slow month of the Tesla Model 3 (47 units, worst month so far), and with the skin change of the Renault Zoe, that nevertheless still scored 128 units.

Expect these two to rebound soon, making this 100% PHEV Top 5 a freak event.

VW Passat GTE
Kia Optima PHEV
Mit. Outlander PHEV
BMW 330e
Kia Niro PHEV

On the 2019 ranking, there is not much to talk about on the top positions, apart from the fact that the leader Outlander PHEV profited from the slow month of the Tesla Model 3 to open a gap 300-plus units gap between them, so November could be decisive for the 2019 title, as the Californian cannot lose more ground to the Japanese SUV, as its December peak might not be enough to recover, if the distance is, say, over 500 units. 

Who will win the race? Please make your bets...

The most important table change was the BMW i3 recovering the #10 spot, in what was a positive month for BMW, because the 530e luxury sedan also climbed one position, to #13, thanks to a record 94 registrations, part of it thanks to the new AWD version.

Other movements on the table were the risen from the dead VW Passat GTE joining the Top 20, in #16, tied with the surprising Mercedes E300e/de twins, that also jumped to #16, thanks to a record 133 deliveries.

It seems German PHEVs are back with a vengeance... 

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia is in the lead, with 23% share (down 1%), with Tesla (15%, down 3%), Volvo (14%) and Mitsubishi (12%, down 1%), are discussing the remaining podium seats.


  1. I think the Passat PHEV will be a success in Sweden, and outsell the others this quarter. Maybe for the exception of Model 3.

    1. Yeah, but the Model 3 only delivered 47 units. What's up with that?!?!

    2. Not surprising: Tesla sent the last boat to Europe in Q3 from Philadelphia instead of San Francisco, so it arrived in time to finish most deliveries before the end of the quarter, instead of spilling into Q4. Thus Q3 deliveries were stronger than usual, and October deliveries were minimal. (As the first Q4 boat only arrived a few days before the end of October.)

      The rest of the quarter should be normal, though. (November should be unusually strong in fact, with something on the order of 10,000 deliveries likely from the boats already arrived or on the way... Let's see what December brings :-) )

    3. Looks to me like Tesla was very efficient with the Q3 delivery to Europe. Almost no stock left over as was the case in Q1,Q2. This is why we are seeing such low model 3 sale numbers in October.

      Country September --> October
      Norway 2342 --> 121
      Netherlands 5778 --> 287
      Spain 228 --> 26
      Sweden 716 --> 47

      Positive is the boats for Q4 have arrived
      Netherlands delivery spike already
      Oct 1-27th 127
      Oct 28th 47
      Oct 29th 55
      Oct 30th 15
      Oct 31th 44
      Nov 1st 249 ( Saturday too)

      for Q3 sales peak only start 13th Aug

      Norway Nov 4th 19

      Also Tesla was battery constrained in Q3 as they sent 5K battery packs to china. That gives them an extra 5K capacity for model 3 and no SR+ deliver to china from Fremont

      Q4 will be huge

    4. Thanks for the useful info!

    5. @Simon I think you got that backwards: while a first batch of battery packs already sent might be sufficient for initial production in Shanghai, they will have to send way more soon if the ramp goes well... (Until local production of battery packs starts in a couple of months.) So if anything, they should be more pack-constrained in Q4.

      (AFAIK Q3 wasn't battery-constrained at all though. With the ongoing ramp in Nevada, and Shanghai only beginning production, Q4 likely won't be constrained either -- but depending on how the respective ramps go, I guess there might be somewhat of a bottleneck again going forward... And of course the situation will enter a whole new chapter once Model Y comes into the picture.)

  2. Because PHEVs sell in larger volumes than BEVs in this market, it is very possible that Hyundai/Kia will be the top selling manufacturer in 2019.

    written by Looney Tunes

    1. Yep, i suspect the Best Seller titles this year could go to the Outlander PHEV on the models, and Kia in the brands.

      Looking at my 2019 forecast, made last January, i was expecting Tesla to take both titles and the PEV share to reach 15%. Maybe i was being too optimistic...

    2. Well, Model 3 almost caught up at the end of Q3, while being way behind in Q2 -- so I think there is a decent chance it might still overtake the Outlander in Q4...

      (Top manufacturer seems to be out of reach, though.)

    3. Let's wait and see. I am afraid the Netherlands will starve the rest of Europe of Model 3's in the last 2 months of the year.

      Which is not all bad, as it would mean that Tesla would have a strong start in 2020...