Wednesday, March 4, 2020

Sweden February 2020

Resultado de imagem para kia optima sw phev
Kia is Big in Sweden
Volvo and Kia shine

Good news continue coming from Sweden, with the local plug-in market doubling the number of registrations, to 5.435 registrations, placing the PEV share at 26% (28% YTD). 

If we look only at tradicional ICE (diesel and gasoline) sales, the diesel demise is visible, with the black-labeled fuel dropping 10%, from 37% a year ago, to the current 27%. 

At this pace, diesel sales will be dead by 2023...

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the fact that the mainstream market is getting electrified means that the plugin market is becoming influenced by the overall tastes, and what do regular Swedes like? 

That's right, Station Wagons, midsized preferably, and looking at the podium positions, that's exacly what we see, with the Volvo S/V60 twins jumping from #4 to the leadership, thanks to a record 666 registrations last month, followed by the #2 VW Passat GTE, with the Kia Optima PHEV closing the podium, and making a 100% midsize car podium.

Besides earning the leadership in February, through the S/V60 twins, Volvo had also other reasons to celebrate, with the XC60 PHEV climbing to #7, thanks to 294 units, its best result since June '18, while its youngest one, the XC40 PHEV compact SUV, finally started to ramp up deliveries, registering 123 units last month, and allowing it to join the table in #20, with the Swedish maker finally placing all the 5 models in the Top 20.

The Kia lineup also shined, with the Niro PHEV registering 392 units in February, its best performance in 8 months, while its BEV sibling had 359 deliveries, its best score ever, allowing it to climb to #6.

But the real surprise came in #10, with the Audi e-Tron registering a record 208 units, allowing it to jump 3 positions, while the BMW 530e climbed 2 spots, to #13, while its arch-rival Mercedes E300e/de was up to #15, but both are still far from the category leaders, the #8 Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins.

The last spots have new faces, with the Tesla Model 3 rejoining the table, in #18, while it prepares to jump to the first half of the table in March, and the Skoda Superb PHEV jumps to #19, and because there are a lot of people looking for a big estate wagon for a reasonable price, the big Skoda should climb further up the table.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention Porsche, that so far had been pretty invisible in this market, but last month it registered 48 Cayenne PHEVs, the best score ever for a Porsche plugin, while the German brand has finally introduced the first units (3, to be exact) of its Taycan BEV, so it will be interesting to see if the "4-door electric 911" can succeed in this PHEV-friendly market, i guess Porsche management would already be happy if its Sports Sedan got close to #20... 

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia is in the lead, but lost share (24%, -1%), and saw Volvo (23%, up 2%) get immediately behind it, while Volkswagen (11%, down 2%) closes the podium. 

Still far from the podium, BMW (8%) is in the 4th position, followed by Mitsubishi (7%). 


  1. Looks like EV sales are holding up pretty much across the board, rather than just seeing an initial peak in January from delayed deliveries -- very encouraging :-) (Also for the rest of Europe I hope?) And that's with many interesting new models yet to be introduced...

    Of course combustion car sales are slowly recovering (as expected), meaning EV share will be falling back to more moderate levels throughout the year -- but it still looks like we should see at least a doubling for the year as a whole!

    1. Well, in Germany BEVs increased by 650 cars, in France they reduced by 1500, so, considering delayed sales, February is looking good.

    2. Germany is a bit of a special case, since the incentive increase was delayed, and only took effect some time in February AIUI, thus presumably delaying some orders. Other markets should be more representative. Sweden is actually a bit up, while Spain shows a very slight pull-back; and you mentioned France with a somewhat larger pull-back -- let's see how others do...

    3. More than 2 times growht is that good?It is great!February of Europe.

  2. What is it with the Swedes buying so many PHEVs? Is it the cold? Is it cultural? Do they typically drive long distances?

    I know this was the case with the Dutch a few years back, then they fortunately switched to BEVs. When will Sweden switch?

    1. XC40 BEV,MY.At the end of the year will probably switch.

    2. It's the cold, it's the distances, it's the driving speeds, it's the driving patterns with towing etc.

      Sweden is the country of station wagons and Volvo, preferable a Volvo station wagon. There are no BEV station wagons, there are few BEV hatchbacks and there are no Volvo BEVs.
      There are really no good options for BEVs that actually suit the needs, wants and brands that a Swede would normally buy.

      And with a culture of biofuels it is so easy to take a diesel-PHEV, run it on renewable diesel and still fit the family, a load of IKEA furniture and drive 140+ km/h on the highways or just tow a caravan whenever you like.
      And you still do your commute on electricity, it's like 50+% of the distance anyway and zero-emission in cities where it counts for the local environment.

      When there are BEV Volvos the attitude will start to change. When there is also BEV Volkswagens like the Passat and Tiguan, BEV Skodas like the Octavia and Kodiaq and BEV Toyotas then the BEV sales will dominate.

      It probably takes another 3-4 years for enough of that to happen. Until then PHEVs will totally dominate.

    3. The Swedish tax system can make it cheaper for the company that will fix a company car for an employee to choose an PHEV or BEV rather then the normal ICE car even if they don't pay for the fuel. As it's up to the employee to fix and pay the fueling it can mean that the PHEV is never charge as the employee maybe can't charge at home.

    4. It all depends on what kind of incentives are being offered. When incentives for PHEVs are large, fleet customers in particular tend to buy them just because they end up cheaper than the combustion variants, even if they never actually intend to charge them... That kind of distortion doesn't happen with BEVs (even when incentives are large), since these obviously will ever be purchased only by buyers willing to actually charge them.

      That's why the Netherlands for example abolished most (all?) PHEV incentives a few years back, resulting in the market shifting from lots of PHEVs almost entirely to BEVs.

      In markets where there are no incentives for either, or there are some incentives, but not overly large ones for PHEVs, we usually see a more even distribution.

      (It's got nothing to do with cold or distances or culture: unlike Sweden, Norway is BEV-dominated, due to a different incentives structure...)

    5. As Sweden is the country of Volvo, I guess that as Volvo does not produce any BEV yet, that is why they buy mostly PHEV. As soon as Volvo starts BEV production in 2-3 years, situation should change. Another reason is that it is anorthern country, it is cold. So, a city car should have about 400 km range I assume in order to have real 200 km.

    6. @Mikael
      3-4 years?It is not easier to refuse vagons no one in the world buys them.

    7. XC40 BEV,Polestar2,T3(all 3 months in a Q),Kona,TY.Sweden forgot what a wagon is at the end of the year.

    8. @antrik
      In Norway has an even harsher climate.

    9. There is no rational explanation for this.Maybe tradition?:)

    10. There's really nothin wrong with a PHEV, studies suggest that the majority of km are done on electricity. Combine that with biofuels, the climate impact of PHEVs aren't bad at all, compared to a BEV.

    11. Most (all?) biofuels have a terrible climate impact -- actually worse than fossils. It's an egregious case of green-washing.

      Studies show vastly differing usage patterns depending on the type of PHEV; and I'd assume also depending the location. In the US for example, "serious" entrants like the Volt see a clear majority of electric driving, while poor ones such as Prius PHEV don't even get half.

      I haven't seen actual numbers for Europe: but considering the incentive-induced distortions in several (not all) countries, and the poor EV experience of pretty much all European PHEV models, I can't imagine them getting good scores in a representative study...

    12. Wagon preference is a good point -- I had forgotten about that one... Surely explains some of the PHEV slant, though certainly not all.

      (There are several BEV hatchbacks on the other hand, and also an increasing number of crossovers -- so I think this point applies mostly only for wagons...)

  3. What is market share of BEVs/PHEVs? You only have total PEV share in your post.

  4. So, a listing of the best 20 selling vehicles with just 6 EVs and the remainder being 14 PHEVs. That's 1762 EVs against 7003 PHEVs.

    "High PHEV penetration doesn't have anything to do with "suitability". It's simply a function of large incentive being offered for PHEVs, resulting in many people buying them simply to save on the purchase price, rather than actually being interested in EVs. This can flip very quickly when incentives are changed."

    "If it had anything to do with suitability, we'd see similar numbers in other markets... Yet neighbouring Norway and SWEDEN have *much* higher BEV percentages."


  5. Diesel sales will be dead by 2023...
    It's not going to be due to lack of try that the Diesel death date will be wrongly forecast.
    Just a summary:

    december 2019 - 2024
    november 2018 - 2022
    july 2018 - ...maybe by 2021
    february 2018 - ...symbolic sales by 2025

    Clearly, forecasting the death date of a moving target.