Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Sweden November 2019

Resultado de imagem para 2019 Passat GTE sweden"
"Bam!!! Here i am!..." - said the unassuming Passat PHEV...

VW Passat GTE returns with a bang (2nd chapter)

The local plug-in market was up 37% YoY, to 4.166 registrations, leading to a 14% share for plugins, pulling the 2019 PEV share to 12%. 

Looking at last month fuels break down, we see the never ending slide of Diesel sales (29% share, versus 34% a year ago), petrol was also slightly down (45% vs 47%), while BEVs were also down (3% vs 5%), while on the flipside, PHEVs jumped from 7% to 11% share, HEVs (mild + full hybrids) were also up, from 7% to 10%, and even Ethanol and CNG have risen from irrelevance (0% share), to 1% share each...

At this pace, Diesel sales could be dead by the mid 2020's, with petrol living on for another decade. 

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the three times Best Seller ('16, '17 and '18) VW Passat GTE scored a record 861 units in only its 2nd full month on the market, doubling the registrations of the #2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, while in 3rd we have the only BEV in this Top 5, with the surprising Nissan Leaf scoring 224 units, its best result since January, so it seems the 62 kWh version is helping to stop the sales bleeding

Another surprising presence was the 5th spot of the new BMW 330e, scoring 168 registrations, which should also help it reach a 2019 Top 20 position in December.

To end the midsize trilogy, the Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins were #4, with 181 units, proving that the company car business is alive and well.

Pl
Model
Sales  
1
VW Passat GTE
861
2
Mit. Outlander PHEV
432
3
Nissan Leaf
224
4
Volvo S/V60 PHEV
181
5
BMW 330e
168

On the 2019 ranking, there is not much to talk about on the top positions, apart from the fact that the leader Outlander PHEV profited from (another) slow month of the Tesla Model 3 (the Netherlands are starving other European markets...) to open a gap of 700 units between them, so the Japanese SUV is the favorite for the 2019 title, which would be its first title since 2015, ending a 3 year rule of the VW Passat GTE. 

The most important table change was of course the VW Passat GTE shooting to #10, with the German midsizer now aiming for the 5th or 6th spot next month.

Other changes in the ranking were the Nissan Leaf climbing one position, to #7, while the Volvo XC90 PHEV returned to the Top 20, in #18, thanks to a record 161 registrations, making it four Volvo's in the Top 20...Now, if only the new baby Volvo, the XC40 PHEV (70 units last month), managed to reach a place in the table, then we would have 100% of the Volvo lineup in the table...

But it wasn't only the Swedish carmaker to have a good month, BMW saw several good performances across the lineup, the 530e is profiting from the new AWD version to score a record 104 units, the 225xe Active Tourer registered a record 103 units, while the Mini Countryman PHEV recorded a year best performance of 107 units.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, that registered a record 114 units last month, proving once again the age old formula: bigger battery = bigger sales, something that can also be said about the BMW X5 PHEV, that scored a record 88 units right on its first full sales month.

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia is on its way to revalidate the 2018 title, with 23% share, with Tesla (14%, down 1%) and Volvo (14%) running for the runner-up spot, while Mitsubishi (12%), is waiting for a slip up from the two in front, to win the Bronze medal.







Midsize Car Best Sellers

Pl
Model
Nov.
Sales  
1
Volvo S/V60
1.945
2
VW Passat
1.446
3
BMW 3-Series
512
4
Audi A4
509
Mercedes C-Class
234

With the Tesla Model 3 in an off month, we have one model with a large degree of electrification, with runner-up having 60% of its sales coming from the PHEV version, while the leaders Volvo S/V60 have just 9% of sales coming from its PHEV versions, a great deal worse from the other two remaining electrified models, the BMW 3-Series and Mercedes C-Class, both with 33% of sales coming from the PHEV versions. 

Which leaves the Audi A4 as the only unplugged model...Until when?


Midsize SUV Best Sellers

Pl
Model
Nov.
Sales  
1
Volvo XC60
1.164
2
Mitsubishi Outlander
455
3
Mercedes GLC
246
4
BMW X3
178
5
Audi Q5
147

The Midsize SUV category is electrified in various degrees, from the 13% PHEV share of the leader Volvo XC60, to the 95% of the Mitsubishi Outlander, passing by the 35% of the Audi Q5.

the Japanese SUV performance begs the question: When will Mitsubishi make the Outlander an entirely plugin model?

Anyway, 3 electrified models out of 5 is already something...


Full Size Car Best Sellers


Pl
Model
Nov.
Sales  
1
Volvo S/V90
1.192
2
Audi A6
430
3
BMW 5-Series
383
4
Mercedes E-Class
285
5
Tesla Model S
104

The leaders Volvo S/V90 have a low 9% share of sales coming from its plugin versions (When will the Swedes invest more in their PHEVs?), while the Mercedes E-Class hit a strong 41%, and even the #3 BMW 5-Series reached 27%.

Finally, the Tesla Model S delivered 104 units, allowing it a 5th spot and making 4 electrified models in the Top 5...Not bad, eh?

Full Size SUV Best Sellers


Pl
Model
Nov.
Sales  
1
Volvo XC90
327
2
BMW X5
120
3
VW Touareg
95
4
Mercedes GLE
67
5
Tesla Model X
51

The full size SUV category has relatively low volumes in Sweden (who would have thought, right?), but it is also increasing its electrification share, with the leader Volvo XC90 growing its PHEV share to 49% last month, all while the runner-up BMW X5 increased significantly its electrification share (73% of sales!) last month.

With the new long range PHEV version of the Mercedes GLE set to land soon, and the Tesla Model X continuing to be a regular feature, the VW Touareg will soon become the only unplugged model among the Best Sellers.

For how long, Volkswagen? 






19 comments:

  1. I am looking forward to the Netherlands numbers. If they are indeed absorbing most of the Model 3 production, they must be truly impressive.

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    Replies
    1. 4,000 units in November :)

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    2. And for the first weekdays this month they've registered 304 on Monday, and 384 on Tuesday!

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    3. market share over 50% in 2 days

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    4. all 1851,model 3-688,rest EV 249

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  2. The Kia Optima PHEV is bolded in the top 20 table due to it's long(ish) range, right? If so, shouldn't the VW Passat GTE PHEV also be bolded, or half bolded like the Leaf, as it has the same (or slightly more) all electric range?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, you're right, the Kia Optima has been taking a free ride lately.

      I will remove the bold, as several new PHEVs are now having the same kind of range and we now need to separate "real" long range PHEVs (2020 BMW X5 PHEV, 2020 Mercedes GLE300de, etc), from other "compliance" plugin hybrids.

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    2. Frankly, I'm not sure there are *any* mainstream PHEVs that exist for other reasons than compliance. (Except maybe to now-gone Volt?...) Certainly not any of the German ones. The reason they got longer ranges now is because the regulatory bar has been raised for compliance cars...

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    3. I guess both the X5 and the GLE can be considered "actual" PHEVs, with usable electric range.

      I am especially curious on the Merc GLE, that also has fast-charging available. That is assuming Mercedes makes them in volume, because if it's in EQC quantities...ahm, yeah, it is compliance.

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    4. It's not just about range: while the Volt was carefully engineered to make sure it works in pure electric mode just as well as in combustion mode, pretty much all other PHEVs have underpowered electric drive trains -- and thus either don't offer a true electric-only mode at all, or offer one with very poor performance.

      Going by the specs I've seen, the new generation of German PHEVs is still just as bad on that score.

      (Reportedly the Clarity PHEV comes closest to the Volt -- though still not quite the same...)

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  3. Jose, do you have any EV sales estimates for 2020? For example for Europe and the US?

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    Replies
    1. Still haven't thought about it, but Europe will surely grow a lot, surely surpassing 5% share, while the Model Y will pull the US market up.

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    2. my forecast 2019-547000 3,7%,2020 1100000-1200000 7,3-8,0%.sorry to interfere.for Europe

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    3. model Y start of production six months earlier!Europe will also get it

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  4. Not sure VW will bother to ever introduce a PHEV A4. (And definitely not a BEV one.) They made it pretty clear that they see the future in BEVs built on dedicated platforms -- PPE in this case. While Audi hasn't announced any specific PPE-based models yet, I think it quite likely that an A4 equivalent (Model 3 competitor) might mark the start...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BEV definetely not, but a PHEV A4 or A5, working as a stop gap, would work.

      I would even say that it is a necessity, considering BMW and Mercedes are now ramping up production of their midsize PHEV cars.

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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