Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Europe November 2020



Record Month! 


Despite having the overall automotive market in the doghouse (-14% YoY), Europe's passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered a record 166,000 registrations in November (+198% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 16% share (8% BEV), helping numbers to rise 123%, to over 1 million units, pulling the market into the...Disruption Zone, as the 2020 PEV share crossed north of 10% mark (5.4% for BEVs alone), so we can say with some certainty that part of the fall on the overall market has more to do with the disruption provoked by plugins than Covid-related issues. So, let the games begin...

...And let's not forget that December should bring also another record month, so we should see some 15%-plus 20% market share in the last month of they year...

Looking back, imagine that in January i was feeling adventurous by predicting 6% plugin share at the end of this year....after all, 2019 ended with 3.6% (2.2% BEV), which was already over 1% above the 2018 market share (2.5% PEV share)...Oh, how times have changed!

So...Will we see the plugin share hit 20% in 2021?

BEVs are running fast (83.512 units, +182% YoY), but PHEVs are going faster (+217%), with these last ones hitting new record month (82,743) for the second time in a row, pulling the BEV/PHEV breakdown to parity between both technologies, although YTD, plugin hybrids are still below (47% vs 53% share) fully electrics.

Last month Best Seller was the Renault Zoe, that managed to beat the VW ID.3, but December should be all about the race between the Tesla Model 3 and the VW new EV, as i believe both models are going to have a deliveries high tide, with Volkswagen trying to out-Tesla the US carmaker.

This podium is also a sign that the plugin market is merging with the major trends of Europe's overall automotive market, as November's Top 2 (ID.3 and Zoe)  are the same as the longtime two Best Sellers in Europe (#1 VW Golf and #2 Renault Clio).

Looking at November Top 5 Models:


#1 Renault Zoe – November was another good month for the French EV, with 9,953 deliveries of the Renault model, with the maker going all in and milking its EV until the last drop, in order to keep five-digit scores until the end of the year and recover the European Best Seller title. Last month, the main market was Germany (4,287 units), followed by France (2,944), with Italy (555 units) and the UK (450) also helping along. In December, expect the Zoe to end in 3rd, behind the high tide Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3, but the 20,000 units advantage that it has collected throughout the year, should be enough to keep the YTD leadership and become the 2020 Best Seller in Europe. 


#2 Volkswagen ID.3 - The much antecipated German EV wasn't able to win the November trophy over the Renault Zoe, delivering just 8,496 registrations, which might look underwhelming, but then again, it could be Volkswagen downplaying in November, in order to have a surprise high tide in December, as i suspect it will happen. The first MEB-platform based EV had its main markets in Germany (2,439), the Netherlands (1,485), Norway (986), and Sweden (773). Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 for the December Best Seller title. 


#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Hyundai's star EV seems to have stabilized at 5,000-plus performances, as the 5,375 deliveries in November can prove. With the upcoming Ioniq 5 BEV  compact crossover said to be a small revolution in the EV World, one wonders if the Kona EV won't suffer from the new internal competition. Unless Hyundai lowers its price...But enough of futurology, and back to last month performance, Germany was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 2,474 deliveries, followed by the Netherlands (529 units), Norway (355) and France (344).


#4 Tesla Model 3 - Last years Best Selling EV in Europe delivered 5,014 units, which while is not a record for a second-month-of-quarter performance, is not too shabby either, meaning that the Tesla midsizer seems to have (finally!) found its cruise speed. The sports sedan main markets in November were Germany (1,617 deliveries), the UK (900 units), France (501) and Switzerland (356). Expect the Model 3 to have another high tide in December and win next month Best Seller title, but it will have to look over its shoulder and check where the VW ID.3 is, as the unassuming hatchback is looking to steal the show from the Californian in the last minute. 


#5 Mercedes A250e – Thanks to competitive pricing (for a Premium brand), usable electric range (64 kms / 40 mi WLTP), and even CCS availability, the compact Mercedes has become the star player in the PHEV field, with November registering 4,517 units, with its biggest markets being Germany (1,612 units), closely followed by the UK, with some 1,200 registrations, while France (443 units, new record) is the 3rd largest market at some distance of the first two. Will this be the 2020 PHEV Best Seller?




Looking at the remaining November Best Sellers, the BMW 330e was #6, with its second record score in a row, in this case 4,229 deliveries, most of them being the new station wagon body, a real no brainer in wagon-loving Europe, that others have already been doing for years (Volvo and Mercedes are just two examples).

In a record month, several models hit their personal bests, like the fresh (now in 8th Generation body) VW Golf PHEV, that scored 3,618 units, beating the nameplate's long running record score, set in December 2015, so expect the compact plugin hybrid to be a strong candidate to the 2021 Best Selling PHEV title, so we might even see Volkswagen collecting both the BEV and PHEV Best Seller titles next year... 

Another known model on the rise is the #12 Smart Fortwo EV, that scored a record 3,371 registrations in November, so despite the underwhelming specs, the tiny EV is growing fast, highlighting the latest trend in Europe: City EVs are rising, besides the Fortwo EV record score, its slightly longer sibling Forfour EV also hit a best ever performance (984 units), like the VW e-Up (3,318), while the new Renault Twingo EV (1,009) and Fiat 500e (1,285) are ramping up deliveries, with the Italian model in particular having potential to be Top 20 material.  

The Smart record performances highlight Daimler's rise to stardom, as the German Group continues to have records galore every month, with 7(!) Mercedes plugin models (B-Class, E-Class, CLA, GLA, GLE, EQC, EQV) hitting record scores. 

A reference also to the #19 Mazda MX-30, despite being imagined like a niche model, the truth is that as Mazda's only available EV, it will have to sell in large numbers, in order to lower the maker CO2-related fines, so the quirky crossover is being registered in surprising volumes, with November representing a new record, with 2,640 units. 

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 2,212 registrations of the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French carmaker already having the small 208 EV in cruise speed, now it's time to ramp up the electric crossover production, speaking of compact crossovers, FCA is ramping up the production of the Jeep Compass PHEV, having registered 1,466 units last month, while Volvo has finally launched the BEV version of its XC40 best seller, with 1,311 deliveries in its first month and Land Rover has done the same with the PHEV versions of the posh Range Rover Evoque (1,411 units) and family-friendly Discovery Sport (721).






Looking at the 2020 ranking, the podium positions seem already decided, so the big news is the jump to 6th of the VW ID.3, that should climb a few more positions in December, probably ending the year in #4, just in time to surpass its e-Golf antecessor. 

A secondary effect of the ID.3 rise, is that we now have a fully BEV Top 9, followed by 7 PHEV models, which makes the table look like there is an "A" League, made only by the best BEVs, and a "B" League, with the best PHEVs.

On the "B" League, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV managed to keep the category leadership, but it will be hard for the Japanese SUV to keep ahead of its most direct competitors in the last stage of the race, as the #11 Volvo XC40 PHEV (and #13 VW Passat GTE, and #12 Mercedes A250e, and #14 BMW 330e...) are all running at a faster pace than the veteran Japanese, so at least some of them should surpass the Mitsubishi SUV in December, and discuss between themselves the PHEV title in the final days of 2020. Should the Outlander PHEV lose the 2020 title, it will be an historic moment, as it will be the first time since 2012 that the Outlander isn't the Best Selling PHEV in Europe

Among them, the one i think will take the PHEV Best Seller title is the Mercedes A250e. Any other bets?

Looking at the remaining position changes, the VW e-Up was up one spot, to #18, while we have a return to the Top 20, with the Smart Fortwo EV showing up in #20.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (11% share, up 1%) has gained precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), that now is more concerned in keeping the 2nd position away from the #3 Mercedes (9%), that profits from its strong (and long) lineup to gain ground over the French brand.

Outside the podium, Tesla, BMW and Volvo, all with 7% share, are looking to join the podium in December, only Tesla has real chances to do so, thanks to the expected end of quarter high tide.







BEV D-Segment / Midsize category





Tesla's midsize sedan sales are in another galaxy, and although it has seen its sales drop a worrying 36% YoY last month, the December high tide should compensate it.

In fact, Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, at least until its Model Y sibling lands, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (1,336 units last month) seems to have already peaked out this year, and with expansion plans only set to be enabled in 2021, don't expect much more from the Sino-Swede.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it sells half of the Mercedes EQC...Which, by the way, has beaten once again its personal best, having delivered 2,343 units last month, so it seems the Mercedes midsize SUV slooow ramp up still hasn't ended, and should continue in the following months.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace profited from the new, cheaper, EV320 version, to jump its sales to 1,916 units, the Sports SUV best score in 23 months and a 89% jump YoY. It seems the Austrian-built Jaguar still has some tricks (ahem, lowering its outrageous high price to something more palatable...) up its sleeve to fight the newcomers. 



BEV E-Segment / Full size category





The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring 3,459 units last month, with its sales jumping 162% YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will this kind of growth rates will be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...With Audi already discounting its big EV, expect this moment to come soon.

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (2,151 units last month, a new record) accelerating its sales once again, the main interest layed on the 3rd spot, where the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (474 units) has managed to beat both flagship Teslas, with the Model X having 293 deliveries in November and the Model S some 287 units, with the higher riding Tesla witnessing a steep fall of 45% YoY, which should worry Tesla, as steep drops have been the norm for the big Teslas throughout the year, and while this is still a rarefied market, all it took was Mercedes to convert the Passenger version of a Van into electric drive, which basically it's what the EQV is, to beat both the Model S and X.

In 2021 there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), that have potential to beat the Porsche Taycan saleswise, making the 2021 race all the more interesting to follow, but should also render the Big Teslas even more irrelevant. Something needs to be done...

43 comments:

  1. Looks like polestar 2 and Ford kuga had low numbers because of their recalls.
    Next year they will have to work on their image.

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    1. Cheaper version is coming for the Polestar 2 next summer: 40k€

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  2. 166.255 / 16% is a voohoo moment for Europe. Its like allies crossing Seine and racing towards Rhine. Freedom from Oil. I am happy that at least Europe + China are setting records while the big oil mercilessly killed the electric vehicle movement in USA. Yes, except Tesla which is increasing the sales with newer models, all other are selling only compliance cars at lower #.
    I am hoping that Ford MachE, Volvo XC40, Lucid Air will give a much needed shot while Model Y will continue to increase.

    Europes 166.255 + Chinas 198.066 alone hits 365.321 which is more than the global record of 345.519 in 2020-09. This is the best holiday gift. Happy New Year 2021 in advance.

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    1. Don't expect meaningful sales from Lucid Air: being essentially a Model S clone with similar specs and pricing (but not the same level of autonomy) from a less established maker, it will be very niche.

      The only non-Tesla models that could see meaningful US sales next year are probably Mach E, Ariya, and ID.4.

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    2. I wouldn't call it a Model S clone, but a "2nd Generation Model S", with a proper interior.

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    3. "Proper interior" being subjective...

      Sure, given Rawlinson's history, the Lucid Air is essentially "Model S director's cut" -- but by the time it will finally be available, we will likely have an *actual* second-gen Model S, that Lucid will have a hard time competing with.

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  3. In NL alone, and in order to dodge the EU CO2 fine as much as possible, VW dumped 8.500 ID's in Dec, with 3 trading days to go (6.500 reg plates still availbale).

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    1. "Dumping" at the end of the year in the Netherlands is "normal": it's because of the yearly incentive step-downs.

      (If it was about the fines, there would be no particular motivation to emphasise the Netherlands over any other European country...)

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    2. @hansome

      That raises our hopes of ID.3 ending up in #3 since its a dedicated BEV with multiple ranges. Any idea on frunk volume of ID.3 Does the european government website include the frunk volume.

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    3. Multiple ranges for ID.3 will only become available next year: for now, it's all just different trims of the mid-range variant.

      And there is no frunk.

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    4. Also, what VW itself communicates, is viewed differently among pundits. Year end, VW focussed on markets best suited (infra, tax incentives etc) to absorb as many ID's as possible before 010121 due to the imminent fine. Fact, no fiction.

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    5. @2handsome I guess if the CO2 fines wouldn't be imminent, VW might have done something different, but not that much. They apparently have ID.3s available, so they sell them.

      NL makes sense, because of the incentive decrease, but everyone else does that (4500 Konas also isn't a regular month in the NL). But they also sold over 7k ID.3 in Germany (as well as 2k ID4) and even over 3k in GB.

      I guess in the end it will be about 25k ID.3. Why? Because they can now build that many and sell them. Was there pressure to sell them before 2021? Sure, but not just in December but the whole year. If they could have sold them earlier, then they would have.

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  4. @Jose Pontes: Will it be possible to publish another table on %age share of
    BEV, PHEV, HEV, Petrol, Diesel, Others for Europe. Seems 8% share of BEV and another 8% share of PHEVs are really good. Although Petrol & Diesel are still sky high, at least another BEVs are higher than others (LPG, CNG, FCV ...)

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  5. I believe ID.3 production started in 2019-11 and went on sale in Germany in 2020-08. So 2020-09 is almost like a 1st full month 2020-11 is 3rd full month. Sales of high 4 digits is still low by our expectations.
    An article mentioned that VW dealers are not interested in selling ID.3 and instead blaming VW while VW blames on dealers. Are they still playing the same game that they played for 10 years in suppressing BEVs. That could be why in Europe, PHEVs match BEVs while its whole different story in China. Hoping that ID.4, Model Y will give a much needed boost to BEV movement in Europe. Only when the automakers lose share to a affordable EV like Wuling MiniEV, they may wake up.
    Chevy Volt production ended in 2019-02 and still the dealers are selling that model with 10 in inventory now. You can imagine the state of ID.3 / ID.4 ...
    Time for European automakers to consider selling directly at least for BEVs.

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    1. PHEVs are strong in Europe, because in many countries, they get almost as much incentives as BEVs. In China, they don't.

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  6. DoggydogworldDecember 29, 2020

    Model 3 is at ~7500 so far this month just in NL+NO+SP vs. ~5000 in all of Europe last month. Crazy stuff. ID3 is also about to exceed its November all-Europe total in just those three countries. Kona is farther away, but delivered 803(!!) in the Netherlands yesterday so don't rule them out.

    Does Tesla really have a chance to beat Renault or Mercedes? I see Tesla coming in near 100k vs. 110k+ for the other two.

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    1. Thats sweet news. Hope Model-3 will retain at least #2 spot and close the margin with Renault Zoe.
      With battery in the base and panoramic roof for view of the sky and 400 km WLTP range and affordable pricing, its a great luxury BEV. Anyone who is concerned about global warming will go for it. Seems 2020 and 2020-11 are the 2nd warmest year and month globally.

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    2. Looks like Model 3 will end this year some 5,000 units behind Zoe.

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  7. ID3 has been selling like crazy in Sweden in December. If the numbers are representative for the rest of Europe I would not rule out a surprise place on the podium at the end of the year. Should be exiting to watch!

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    1. I'd be surprised if it does *not* end up in the podium...

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  8. "..... like the fresh VW Golf PHEV, that scored 3,618 units, beating the nameplate's long running record score, set in December 2015, so expect the compact plugin hybrid to be a strong candidate to the 2021 Best Selling PHEV title, so we might even see Volkswagen collecting both the BEV and PHEV Best Seller titles next year... " Strange. I read the production of the E Golf stopped Dec 23. Now it's up to the ID's. Is the PHEV Golf 8 excluded?

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    1. It means VW, not Golf. It could be ID.3 as best BEV, and Golf as best PHEV.

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  9. Nice to see VW ID.3 leap past 3 PHEV (Outlander, Kuga, XC40) to race to #6.
    Will the VW ID.4 repeat the same.
    I wish new automakers with dedicated focus launch more new BEVs to gain more share from PHEVs. Perhaps the later competition with full hybrids could be more aggressive. Then comes the diesel and finally petrol.

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    1. VW advertisements for the ID.3 as well as ads for the Audi-Etron GT are shown during prime time on German TV...

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    2. I'd be *extremely* disappointed if ID.4 doesn't end up way in front of any PHEV model...

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  10. An average american does not switch off the monitor when they leave home. A monitor consumes 80 watts of power and in idle mode could consume 5 watts. After how many minutes of inactivity it goes idle could differ from 5 minutes to 1 hour or never. What a waste of electricity.

    And they expect upcoming Biden admin to work out magic and reduce pollution. How about in Europe/China. Do they switch off monitors and lights or just walk away.

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    1. Pretty sure modern monitors typically consume way less... Unless you mean TV sets.

      (It should be noted though that on top of wasting energy, running needlessly also means faster ageing...)

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  11. A must read article for every BEV supporter.
    How VW fools the public by trying to promote ICE though they claim to support BEV. Lets see how many ID.3 they sell in the coming month and we will know who is right/wrong.

    https://cleantechnica.com/2020/12/29/a-volkswagen-dealer-is-making-10-less-profit-selling-an-id-4-instead-of-fossil-fuel-vehicle-cleantechnica-exclusive/

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    1. @famlin
      VW really is doing everything to make ID series succeed.
      - they stopped sales of E-up city triplets
      - they make Golf PHEV much more expensive than Mercedes A250e

      Motivation may be the survival of their CEO.

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    2. @famlin unfortunately Alex tends to put a spin on anything non-Tesla that at least borders on, and some would call outright FUD. Unless you check primary sources yourself (if he provides them), be wary of his claims...

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  12. Nope, 20% EV share next year is not likely. Someone (don't remember who) calculated that ~10% EV sales are needed this year in Europe to meet emission rules -- and it looks like it will end up pretty much on point. The same entity calculated 15% needed with the stricter rules next year... So that's around where sales will probably end up next year.

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    1. I think that the main impetus for increasing sales next year there will be no bans and tightening,but a positive driving experience,large selection and the realization that we need to give up as soon as possible ICE.I really want to believe that the share will be greater 25%

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    2. Maarten VinkhuyzenDecember 30, 2020

      The OEMs might target 15%. The public is discovering BEV and buying them.
      If a VW dealer has a customer with the ID.3, Kona, and Zoe on its shortlist. Will the dealer try to sell the ID.3 or a fossil fuel vehicle?
      The same goes for any other dealer.

      All carmakers are hard at work on hybridization of all models. They have to because the EURO-7 standard is accepted for 2025. Many fossil fuel models, and all non-hybrid models, will be EOL shortly after 2025. They will never be able to comply with EURO-7 emission levels.

      Current policy at most carmakers is making BEV with too small batteries and PHEV that can do the job. It works for now, as the fast increase of PHEV sales shows, even where they have no incentives for PHEV.

      Market pressure to make better BEV and the threat that more realistic exhaust limits will be used for PHEV will change this.

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    3. This year shows extremely clearly that auto makers' EV efforts in Europe are still driven overwhelmingly by compliance, not catering to consumer demand. I'm optimistic that this will shift in the next few years: but we are absolutely not there yet.

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    4. PSA,Renault,Volvo met the standards ahead of schedule.They could severely restrict sales EV in December,but this is not happening.We are absolutely where it's profitable for manufacturers to sell EV

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    5. If they were profitable, they'd have met the goals half a year ago, not in the last weeks of the year. Pretty obvious they were all aiming for a spot landing. (Some overshooting a bit, others falling short...)

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  13. What would the point be for VW to "downplay" ID.3 in November?...

    Either way, with some 25,000 Model 3 available for delivery in December (logistics willing), it seems pretty unlikely that ID.3 will beat that -- even though it looks like it will be much higher than November...

    OTOH, it seems very possible that ID.3 will exceed the 13,000 or so deliveries needed in December to beat the Kona to #3 for the year...

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    1. VW can then say they beat Tesla even in their strongest month. Which would actually be a remarkable achievement.

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    2. You seriously think VW would handicap their operations just to be able to make such a meaningless claim?...

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    3. I don't know, maybe yes, maybe no. But would it really be meaningless? A lot of customers these days base their purchasing decisions sometimes on even stranger reasons.

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    4. Id 3 sales in Europe will be huge in December (why not November?) In the Netherlands id3 wins.Although it seemed to many(including me)that's was impossible.Probably VW made an effort to this and is interested in PR.In Europe ICE-90% PHEV 5%. market without borders. Need to jointly take market share (convincingly explain the benefits of EV) and not find out who is cooler

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    5. The Netherlands always see a huge sales spike in December -- especially for newly introduced models -- before the next incentives step-down.

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  14. Hello Jose,
    maybe this question has been many times asked, but what countries include the European Market? Its not only EU I assume but who is in and who is out? Norway, Switzerland and now UK are non-EU countries but at least Norway and Switzerland somehow associated with the EU. And what about the balkan countries, Israel, Ukraine, Russia or Turkey which could be somewhat considered European?
    Would be interesting to know how you define this in your stats and where you get your figures from?

    Thanks

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