Monday, November 18, 2019

China October 2019

Resultado de imagem para gac aion s 2019"

GAC Aion S is the only ray of light in a depressed market  

There seems to be no end to the incentives blues, with the Chinese plugin market plunging 46% YoY, and this time both powertrain technologies crashed at the same speed (-47% for BEVs, -46% for PHEVs), a worrying drop, considering the overall market was down just 6% YoY.

In the midst of this adverse environment, October’s PEV share was just 3.5% (2.7% BEV), dropping the 2019 PEV market share to 5.5% (4.3% for BEVs alone), which is still above the 2018 result (4.2%), but should the market continue this red until the end of the year, the 2019 share shouldn’t be much different from 2018.

The main reason for this string of drops lies on the subsidy changes that happened on June 26, when NEV subsidies were cut off completely for vehicles with less than 250 kms electric range, while those with higher range saw their subsidies halved, but the reasons do not end there, besides the general drop in the local automotive market, there must be some GF3 Osborne effect also going on, affecting not only the Model 3 deliveries, but also everything close to it.

This is changing the face of the market, as it is now a less subsidy dependent market, with smaller, cheaper models unable to compensate the subsidy loss, while the most expensive end of the market continues to thrive, helping foreign OEMs to increase market share, now at 14%.

In October, the nameplate that made the biggest impression was the #3 GAC Aion S, that continues to ramp up production every passing month, no mean feat, considering all the doom and gloom around it.

Here’s last month Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Resultado de imagem para baic eu-series 

#1 – BAIC EU-Series: The electric sedan scored another win, this time with 7,623 units last month, with the Beijing Auto model continues King of the Hill, thanks to an attractive design and specs (215 hp, 416 kms / 260 mi NEDC, US $32,500), but considering that many of its main competitors are taking a hit, the question remains: How long will BAIC’s electric sedan continue immune to the current pessimistic environment?

Resultado de imagem para Baojun E200

#2 – Baojun E-Series: With the end of subsidies for most of the small city EVs, unable to reach the minimum 250 kms range, the few that still have access to subventions have seen their sales rise, and none did it more spectacularly than the Baojun E-Series, Shanghai Auto and General Motors offspring. It seems the tiny two seater has won the lottery with the new rules, winning consecutive podium positions, and October was no exception, having registered 4,636 units last month. The updated range, thanks to a new 24 kWh battery, is the crucial element to reach the subsidy minimum range requirement, which added to its competitive price (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes it an appealing model, especially considering its modern design and features. 

Resultado de imagem para gac aion s

#3 – GAC Aion S: Things are going well for the Aion S, because the sleek sedan continues to improve its performance every passing month, having established another record yet again, with 4,217 units, reaching the 3rd place in October, its 4th Top 5 spot in a row. A sedan inspired by the Tesla Model 3 formula, GAC is betting everything in its new dedicated EV lineup, the Aion. Besides the Aion S sedan, the recently landed LX also promises to make an impact in a few months. But back to the Aion S, beyond the stylish (and aerodynamic - 0.245cd) looks, this new model bears some impressive specs: a 59 kWh CATL NCM 811 battery, 510 km / 318 mi NEDC range and Level 2 driving aids, but the real killer is the price: Around 180,000 CNY / $26,000. Before subsidies.

Resultado de imagem para byd yuan ev 500

#4 – BYD Yuan / S2 EV: The small crossover was one of the subsidy cut victims, while previously it clocked 6,000-plus performances regularly, now i tis happy to cross 3,000 units, like last month (3,227 units). While the BYD model has competitive specs (58 kWh battery, 410 kms /255 mi NEDC range, 163 hp motor), for the price (25k USD), the truth is that the overall negative environment is taking its toll on the Yuan sales.

 Resultado de imagem para bmw 530le 2019

#5 – BMW 530Le: The current success of BMW’s luxury sedan in China has take a lot by surprise, but it seems it is here to last, in October the luxury sedan scored 2,764 units, allowing it for another Top 5 presence. Even without access to subsidies (then again, let’s face it, subsidies for cars at this price level don’t really make that much of a difference, the owners just use the money for some nicer alloys or optional creature comforts…), so the leader in the Luxury category should continue selling around 3,000 units per month, which is well above its direct competitors, that would happy to reach 1,000 units in one month.

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2019 ranking

The market is now adapting to the new reality, now that certain models lost access to subsidies.

We’ll start with the position changes, with the Chery eQ tying with the BYD Tang PHEV in the 4th place, but the most important change happened in the second half of the table, with the GAC Aion S jumping 5 positions, to #14, with the stylish sedan now being half way to secure a Top 10 position this year, which would be a great starting point for a Top 5 (Podium?) spot in 2020…

The GAC star player, along with the BMW 530Le and the Tesla Model 3, currently seem to be the only players with the potential to climb positions until year end, as most of the other models are seeing its sales dry out.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to the MG eZS EV compact crossover, with the Shanghai Auto nameplate scoring 2,549 units, its best result so far, allowing it to be #6 in October.

With MG having high hopes for the electric crossover in export markets, these good numbers in its domestic market are a good sign for the success of the nameplate elsewhere.

In the Best-Selling Startup race, if Xpeng had a horrible month, with only 505 units, WM Motors, and its Weltmeister EX5 EV, saw 2,056 units delivered, a new year best, while NIO did even better, by delivering 2,526 units (2,220 ES6 and 306 ES8), this being its third best result ever and representing a 61% growth YoY.

I wish the best of luck to NIO, despite the heavy losses, the brand has potential, let’s hope it has enough resources to launch the compact crossover ES3,a model said to be launched in next year, which will be essential for the brand to win scale and find its way into profitability.

If the Chinese EV maker survives the next two years, I believe it will have a bright future ahead, even in overseas markets.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (18%, down 1%) is losing momentum, while below it, BAIC (12%, up 1%) isn’t much better, all while #3 SAIC (11%, up 1%) is benefitting from the new environment to gain share.

Outside the podium, Geely (5%, down 1%) is slowly losing charge, unlike GAC, that now has 3% share and is on an upwards trend.

Will this Natural Selection help the market become more competitive? For now, the best foreign carmakers (Tesla, BMW and VW all have 3% each), are already above of most of the local OEMs, in this highly competitive market.

It seems in the future only some 5 or 6 Chinese EV makers will be able to run with the best of the foreign brands…

Any bets on who will be?

Friday, November 15, 2019

Global Top 5 - Mid Game bet - October 2019

1. Tesla Model 3 - 222k

2. BAIC EU-Series - 82k

3. BYD Yuan / S2 EV - 64k

4. Nissan Leaf - 60k

5. Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV - 43k

On the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (276k) is King, followed by BYD (198k). But in October, BMW should be 2nd, with about 12-13k units.

Thursday, November 14, 2019

Germany October 2019

Resultado de imagem para mercedes e300e wltp range"

Open the (PHEV) Flood Gates!

Some kind of click happened in the German plugin market after the Summer holidays, having scored a record month (9,452 registrations) in September, October came and yet a new record was set, this time 26%(!) above the previous one, with 11,926 being registered, more than doubling last year result, with China's PEV market in post-subsidies blues, this is a welcome boost to global sales, now if only the US market helped to carry the burden...

Despite BEVs continuing to grow at a fast pace (+47% YoY), this time all the lights were focused on PHEVs (+248%!!!), with several models hitting record results, allowing the PEV Share to reach a record 4.1% share last month, with PHEVs alone hitting a best ever 2.4%, pulling the 2019 plugin share to 2.9% (1.7% BEV).

October brought a surprise leader to the monthly leadership, with Mercedes opening the flood gates to the E300e/de twins, and the luxury twins hitting 1,564 deliveries, a new monthly record for any plugin hybrid in Germany. Suddenly, the current PEV record of the Tesla Model 3 (2,224 units, last March) doesn't seem so unattainable...

But the Daimler Group didn't stopped there, with the smaller Mercedes C300e/de coming out of nowhere to 3rd, with 748 units, a new record for the midsize nameplate, while both Smart models also shined, with the smaller Fortwo EV ending the month in 4th, with 746 units, its best result since December '17, while the slightly larger Forfour EV reached 320 units, its best score in 19 months.

The remaining two spots in the Top 5 went to the local heroes BMW i3 (#2, with 861 units), and VW e-Golf (#5, 723), with the last one continuing to impress by its vitality, even with its successor showing up in bilboards everywhere.

Mercedes E300e/de
BMW i3
Mercedes C300e/de
Smart Fortwo EV
 VW e-Golf

Regarding the YTD table, remember last month when i said the BMW i3 only had 10% of becoming the 2019 Best Seller?

Well, things have changed for the better for the Bimmer, with the leader Renault Zoe scoring just 458 units last month, its lowest result this year, due to the current generation change, and the Tesla Model 3 delivering the usual slow (221 units) first month of the quarter performance, the German hatchback took the opportunity to displace the Californian from the runner-up spot, while at the same time it reduced the distance to the leader Renault Zoe to just 124 units.

With only 2 games (months) to play, this is now a 3 horse race, with only 431 units separating the top 3, the BMW i3 continues to depend from two unknown variables: how fast will the new Zoe be delivered in large volumes, and will the Model 3 allocation be impacted by the inflated deliveries in the Netherlands.

If the Zoe and Model 3 underperform next month, then the BMW i3 could earn just enough distance to sustain the December peaks of its two competitors and win the Best Seller prize.

One thing is certain, this is probably the most exciting race among the top markets, so don't forget to bring the popcorns...

Outside the podium, there's plenty to talk about, the Mercedes E300e/de twins jumped 4 positions, to #7, and could even aim for a Top 5 spot until year end, and despite its arch rival BMW 530e also scoring a personal best, its 543 units pale next to the 1,564 of the Mercedes...Anyway, not all is bad, as this performance allowed the 5-Series to climb to #9.

In fact, this result from the 530e was just one out of many record results in the BMW stable, as the Bavarian carmaker, apparently also opened its PHEV gates, leading to record results in 5(!) of its plugin hybrids, besides the aforementioned 530e, the 225xe Active Tourer (592 units), the new 330e (438 units), the new X5 PHEV (76) and even the 745e barge (129) hit their personal bests last month.

But the PHEV resurgence didn't ended there, with the #14 Mini Countryman PHEV scoring a record 321 units, while the #20 Volvo XC60 PHEV scored a new personal best performance for the 2nd time in a row (158 units).

If we see good performances coming from plugin hybrids on the Top 20, outside the ranking the numbers are also significant: the new Audi Q5 PHEV did 147 registrations, while one of the surprises of the month was the Porsche Cayenne PHEV hitting an amazing 596 units score, a new record for any Porsche nameplate. 

In the middle of all these PHEV record numbers, there was one BEV also doing a personal best, with the revised Hyundai Ioniq Electric profiting from its first full month to score a record 269 units.

In the brands ranking, BMW (22%, up 2%) is the clear leader, with the Tesla (11%, down 1%) keeping its advantage over the #3 Renault (10%, down 1%).

Outside the podium, we have Mitsubishi (8%), followed by Volkswagen, Mercedes and Hyundai, all with 7% share, and trying to catch the Japanese brand.

Midsize Car Best Sellers

Mercedes C-Class
VW Passat
BMW 3-Series
Audi A4
Skoda Superb

With the Tesla Model 3 in an off month, we have two models with a significant degree of electrification, with the leader Mercedes C-Class having 13% of sales coming from its PHEV versions, while the #3 BMW 3-Series has 10% share. 

Outside these two, the #2 VW Passat only has 3% share coming from its PHEV version, but expect this to increase significantly in the coming months, while the #5 Skoda Superb is also said to start delivering its PHEV version in a couple of months.

Which will leave the Audi A4 as the only unplugged model in a few months...Until when?

Midsize SUV Best Sellers

Mercedes GLC
Audi Q5
Volvo XC60
Mitsubishi Outlander

If the Top 2 models are (still) very much ICE models, the following ones are already electrified, in various degrees, from the 8% PHEV share of the Audi Q5, or the 10% of the Volvo XC60, to the 61% of the Mitsubishi Outlander.

This last performance begs the question: When will Mitsubishi make the Outlander an entirely plugin model?

Anyway, 3 electrified models out of 5 is already something...

Full Size Car Best Sellers

Mercedes E-Class
Audi A6
BMW 5-Series
Volvo S/V90
BMW 7-Series
Mercedes S-Class

Funny enough, with the exception of the #2 Audi A6, all other models have PHEV versions, and this month we have some pretty decent shares in their overall sales, with the leader Mercedes E-Class hitting 28%, the #3 BMW 5-Series reaching 17%, the same value of the Volvo S/V90 twins, and while tied in #5, with 378 units, the flagships BMW 7-Series and Mercedes S-Class have very different plugin shares in their portfolio (34% for the BMW, 9% for the Mercedes).

Full Size SUV Best Sellers

Porsche Cayenne
Mercedes GLE
VW Touareg
Volvo XC90

The full size SUV category is also increasing its electrification share, with the leader BMW X5 slowly increasing its plugin share (6% of sales now come from the PHEV version), and the #5 Volvo XC90 growing its PHEV share to 15%, all while the Porsche Cayenne increased significantly its electrification share (50% of sales!) last month. Is the Taycan success inspiring Porsche to move faster into plugins?

With the new long range PHEV version of the Mercedes GLE set to land soon, the BMW X5 PHEV expected to increase sales significantly in a couple of months, the VW Touareg will become the only unplugged model among the Best Sellers.

For how long, Volkswagen?