China August 2020

 

Wuling Mini EV shines in growing market

 

The overall Chinese market remained in positive numbers last month (+6% YoY), with plugins faring much better, growing 30% YoY last month, to 100,000 units, a new year best, with BEVs growing slightly faster (+31%), than plugin hybrids (+27%), allowing pure electrics to have 81% of plugin sales last month, slightly above of this year average of 79%.

August was the best selling month this year, and it shows, as last month plugin share reached 5.7% (4.6% BEV), pulling the 2020 share to 5% (3.9% BEV), which is still below from the 5.5% of 2019, but it is a step in the right direction and hopefully it will reach last year's score towards the end of the year.

Looking at August Best Sellers, we have 2 midsize sedans ( #1 Tesla Model 3, #3 GAC Aion S) and 3 City EVs, confirming the return of small EVs to the spotlight.

Here’s August Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

#1 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit 11,811 units last month, and while it’s not its all time best, Tesla’s midsizer continues firmly above the 10,000 mark. And the Model 3 is starting to get in the way of the category Best Sellers in the overall market, as the Californian was not that far-off from the BMW 3-Series (16,919 units), Mercedes C-Class (14,249) and Audi A4 (13,053), so the Tesla sports sedan still has some room to grow. Will we see it reach some 15,000 units/month cruise speed this year? Another question is, will Tesla deliver a surprise performance in September? Mmmm...Discuss.

 

#2 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

A big name for such a small car, the Wuling EV, let’s call it that way, scored 9,150 units last month, thanks to a steep production ramp up, so expect the tiny four-seater to hit five-digit performances soon. Why the reason for this overnight success? Well, from the start, it is one of the cheapest EVs on the market ($4,200!!!), and yet, it’s not all that bad, as the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture model can seat 4 people (or 3 people and a bit of cargo, or 2 with a fair amount of cargo – 741 liters), in car that is a tad larger (2,917 mm / 114.8 in) than a Smart Fortwo EV, sure, range is not brilliant (smaller battery version has 9.2 kWh battery, top spec version has a 13.8 kWh battery), just like the motor (27hp), but it has only 665 kg curb weight to carry around and is highway capable, so in order to have the 4,200 USD price, without subsidies, one can’t expect miracles... At this price level, the Wuling EV is in position to be a disruptive force in urban mobility, not only against 4-wheeled private transportation, but also against 2 and 3-wheelers. This EV could be a game changer for many, and not only in China...

 

#3 – GAC Aion S

GAC’s sleek sedan was 3rd in August, having registered 4,071 units (excluding the 665 Toyota-badged iA5 units), a new year best, so it seems the Aion S has found a way to live with its crossover sibling, the new Aion V (2,086 units last month). One of the most competitive domestic electric sedans on the market, the Aion S should continue to be a regular in this Top 5, being a strong candidate to the 2020 medals positions.

 

#4 – Great Wall ORA Black Cat (R1)

A few decades ago, Hollywood had a Rat Pack, and maybe inspired by that one, Great Wall decided to create its own Cat Pack, transforming its tiny R1 Smart-lookalike into the Black Cat, launching the R2 model (think Scion XB/Toyota Urban Cruiser kind of vehicle) as the White Cat, that delivered 1,035 units last month, and to lead the Pack, Great Wall is now preparing the launch of the Good Cat, a chunky (and funky) compact hatchback (VW Golf sized) that kinda looks like a Porsche 356 in the front, a Toyota from the side, and the back...Well, it’s its own thing. But enough of the Good Cat, we are here to talk about the Black Cat, that delivered 3,748 units in August, the City EV best score since the new subsidy rules were enacted, more than a year ago. Does this mean the new name will allow a second youth to the Ora model? To be answered in the next few months...

 

#5 – SAIC Baojun E-Series 

Baojun works as the more hip and upmarket version of the Wuling EV, and thanks to their E-Series (E100/200/300) lineup of City EVs, the SGMW (SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture) offspring has seen its demand stay high during the last months, winning a 5th spot in August, thanks to 3,312 units last month. The access to the current subsidy, added to competitive pricing (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes it an appealing model for young urban drivers, as well as car-sharing companies and other kind of fleets. 

 

 

Looking at the 2020 ranking, if the Model 3 is the undisputed leader, below it, everything is up for discussion, with the #3 GAC Aion S shortening the distance, to less than 1,000 units, to the 2nd placed BYD Qin Pro EV, but both should be surpassed in a couple of months by a rising star...

...The Wuling EV, that after joining the table in July, in #13, last month the Wuling model jumped 7 spots, to #6, and should reach the 4th place in September, only to surpass the aforementioned two by October. 

This move highlights the latest trend, City EVs are returning to the spotlight, not only with the Wuling EV, but also with the newly called Great Wall Ora Black Cat, that climbed to #8, and the #9 Chery eQ, that delivered 3,307 units, its best score in over a year.   

But it weren’t only with the City EVs shining, as the MG ZS EV was also up, to #15, while BYD saw two of their models climb, with the Tang PHEV climbing two positions, to #17, thanks to a Year Best performance of 1,525 deliveries, while the Song Pro EV was up to #19, and despite staying in the same spot, the BYD e2 had a Year Best score of 1,557 units.

Highlighting BYD’s positive month, the Han siblings saw the benefits of the production ramp up, with the EV version scoring 2,700 units, while the PHEV registered their first 1,300 units, if we to count both together, the full size BYD would feature on our monthly Top 5.

A final mention to two startup EVs, with the #11 Li Xiang One full size SUV scoring a record 2,711 units, while the Weltmeister EX5 had its best performance this year, with 2,042 units. 

Below the Top 20, a reference to the ramp-up mode Xpeng P7 (1,996 units in August), the 1,035 units of the Great Wall Ora R2 White Cat, the 2,086 units of the crossover GAC Aion V, or the 1,722 deliveries of the Changan Eado EV, its best score this year.

NIO’s barge flagship SUV, the ES8, scored 1,125 units last month, its best score in 16 months, mostly thanks to the new 100 kWh version, which constrasts with last month paltry result of the Tesla Model X (112 deliveries).

“Yeah, but August is not a peak month for Tesla...” – True, but Tesla’s flagship SUV top score this year in China was 650 units, last March, which pales next to the Li Xiang One regular scores, and the NIO ES8 4,506 deliveries this year are two times the score of the Model X...

Currently, the Model S & X are weak points for Tesla in China, as they are being trailed by several opponents, be it startups (NIO, Li Xiang), local OEMs (BYD), or foreign ones (BMW), which is a stark contrast with the current Model 3 domination of the midsize category...

#MakeModelS&XinChina; #RefreshModelS&XonBatteryDay.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (15%) is still in the leadership, but the #2 Tesla (13%), and especially the rising #3 SAIC (13%, up 1%) are looking to catch it soon.

SAIC is 3rd, although i should say, it’s more SAIC+SGMW, because if we remove the joint-venture small EV models from the SAIC tally, the Shanghai maker would have only 6% share. Technicalities, technicalities....

Below the podium, Volkswagen (6%) is holding on to #4 by just 2 units(!), with GAC (also 6%) looking forward to surpass the German maker in September, while NIO (4%) has surpassed BMW and is now #6, and with the #5 BAIC less than 300 units away, it is waiting for a chance to climb higher (In September?). 

France August 2020

Koreans shine in Slow Selling Month

With the overall automotive market back in the Dog House (-20% in August), plugin sales continue immune to the surrounding doom and gloom, with PHEVs (up 269%, to 5,266 units) faring better than BEVs, up only 167%, to 5,590 registrations, allowing plugin hybrids to have 49% of the plugin market last month, above this year average (35%), and quite possibly the highest share ever by plugin hybrids, in this traditionally BEV-friendly market. 

Nevertheless, looking at this year French market fuels split, there are are already some disruptive market share changes, with petrol down 9% in share regarding the same period last year, to 50%, diesel is also down, albeit a more moderate 3%, to 31%, to the profit of all electrified categories, starting with HEVs, up 4%, from the 5% of last year, to the current 9%, passing by PHEVs that now have 3.3% of the market (reaching 5.1% last month), and ending with the 6% of BEVs (5.4% in August), allowing the 2020 PEV share to be at a record 9.3% (10.5% last month), which is a whole different level from the 2.8% of 2019. 

Expect the numbers to improve slightly in the remainder of the year, with the 2020 tally possibly even reaching 10%, which would not only be a great achievement, but also the prelude for the #Disruption '21 - French Edition

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the top 2 were the usual local heroes, but below them, we have last month Best Selling Foreigner, the Kia Niro EV, that despite August being the slowest selling month in France, managed to score a record month(!), with 620 deliveries, allowing the Korean crossover to reach its first first monthly medal in France. 

The remaining positions went for the Peugeot 3008 PHEV, #4 with 583 registrations, while the 5th position went for the Hyundai Kona EV, that thanks to the increased availability coming from the Czech production, allowed Hyundai-Kia to place two models in the French Top 5.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Renault Zoe	1,618
2	Peugeot 208 EV	697
3	Kia Niro EV	620
4	Peugeot 3008 PHEV	583
5	Hyundai Kona EV	520

Looking at the 2020 ranking, while the top 2 remain unattainable, the last position in the podium can still change hands, while the 3rd placed Peugeot 3008 PHEV has finally distanced itself, in the PHEV category, from its DS 7 PHEV arch-rival, the #4 Tesla Model 3 can still steal the Bronze medal from the French crossover, with 369 units separating both models, and the Californian expecting to have a high tide next month, we could see it overcome the difference and surpass the high-riding Pug. 

Outside the podium, a mention for the Koreans Hyundai Kona EV and Kia Niro EV, as the Hyundai model is now just 6 units beind the #5 DS 7 PHEV, so it should surpass the French SUV next month, while the Kia also has a shot at surpassing the DS plugin hybrid in September, especially if it continues to score record performances

On the second half of the table we have the only position changes of the month, with the Mercedes GLC300e climbing to #12, switching positions with the now retired Citroen C-Zero dinosaur, while the rising star Volvo XC40 PHEV climbed another position, now staying at #14.

A surprise appearance on the table is the VW Golf GTE, that joined the table at #20, displacing the BMW i3. This is still the Golf VII body, not the new Golf VIII, which means this end-of-career peak could only be possible by fire-sale prices, something we knew Volkswagen had been doing in the past few months with the e-Golf BEV, but apparently that was also the case with Golf GTE, at least in France. 

But this should be a temporary presence, in fact, there are two other models less than 100 units behind the VW hatchback, as the #21 BMW i3 is just 17 units behind, while its British cousin, the Mini Cooper EV, is #22, with 1,025 units, and the Mini hot hatch is on the rise, having scored a record 244 units performance in August.  

Speaking of future new entries to the Top 20, we should mention the #23 Opel Corsa EV, that scored 157 registrations in August, and the #24 Mercedes A250e, that is less than 200 units from the Top 20 and had 260 deliveries last month, highlighting Mercedes good moment, not only the GLC300e is on the rise, but the A250e has also good perspectives to reach the Top 20 soon, not mentioning the strong landings in August of the CLA250e (118 deliveries) and the B250e (81). Amazingly, Mercedes is currently the Best Selling German brand in the French plugin market...

Speaking of which...In the brands ranking, the leader is, as always, Renault (25%), with Peugeot (21%) firm in the 2nd spot, while a sliding DS (5%, down 1%) is in the 3rd spot, just ahead of Tesla (also 5%). 

Germany August 2020

 

Mercedes A250e - A new star is born?

13% share! 

After a record month in August, the German plugin market had its second best month ever in August, with a little over 33,000 units performance, an amazing performance considering August is usually one of the slowest selling months of they year, preluding another record-breaking month in September, but more on that below...

PHEV registrations are going through the roof, up 448%(!), to 17,000 units, helping plugins as a whole jumping an amazing 319% last month, with the plugin share reaching an amazing 13% (6.4% BEV), and pulling the yearly tally to 9.2% (4.3% BEV). 

The incentive changes were the main reason for the recent surge, and with more record months to come (#Super-September), we may have already reached the tipping point in Germany, where disruption is visible and the status quo is changed forever, so we should see this market reach the 10% plugin share already this year (September? October?), which means 2021 would see this market surf the S-Curve like Garret McNamara in Nazare...

Back at last month Best Sellers, in August the Tesla Model 3 surprised everyone, with a record 2,824 registrations (In an off-peak month! How high will it get in #Super-September? 4,000?), winning its first Monthly Best Seller award since March, relegating at the same time the Renault Zoe (2,210 units) to the runner-up spot, but if the rumors of several thousands of orders pouring in to the French EV are true, then we should see it reach record numbers (3,000-plus?) next month (#Super-September).

Below the two Top Sellers, the #3 Mercedes A250e scored yet another record score, with 1,939 deliveries, with usable electric range (65 kms / 40 mi WLTP range), competitive pricing (starts below 40,000€) and even fast-charging(!), expect the compact Mercedes to become a familiar face in this Top 5.

Outside the podium, we have the #4 Ford Kuga PHEV and #5 Hyundai Kona EV, both at near record levels, making this a foreign-heavy Top 5, with only one model (Mercedes A250e) representing the home team. 

Of course, next month we should see the local hero VW ID.3 rise to the occasion and probably  win the Super-September Best Seller award, with say...6,000 units?

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Tesla Model 3	2,824
2	Renault Zoe	2,210
3	Mercedes A250e	1,939
4	Ford Kuga PHEV	1,588
5	VW Passat GTE	1,444

Regarding the 2020 table, there's plenty to talk about, in the podium positions, the Renault Zoe replaced the VW e-Golf in the leadership, and with the German oldtimer soon to move into greener pastures, the French hatchback won't have to worry any more with it, and with the new 3rd placed Tesla Model 3, some 5,000 units behind, the Renault model should have enough margin to keep it on the rear view mirror.

Of course, next month will signal the first official deliveries month for the VW ID.3, with the German prodigy said to land with a bang (6,000 units?), all eyes are on it to see if it can displace the Renault Zoe from the throne, but in order to do so, it will need run against the limited time, by delivering a large number of units in Q4 (some 16,000 units). 

Will VW be able to do it? If i had to bet my money now, i would go with the French hatchback,  winning its 3rd consecutive Best Seller title...

Back to September, why will it be Super? Well, with the estimated 6,000 units of the VW ID.3,  3,000 of the Renault Zoe, and some 4,000 deliveries from the Tesla Model 3, we should have in only three models, 13,000 registrations. Add the rest of the market, with say, 30,000 units, and you get 43,000 units, not only a new record, but also reaching a record 14-15% plugin share!

The PHEV race is also interesting, with the leader VW Passat GTE (1,444 units, new record for the second month in a row), now being threatened by the rising star Mercedes A250e, that jumped 7 spots, to #5, and is now some 1,000 units behind the VW midsizer, so we could see the baby Merc reach the top of the category in a couple of months.

Speaking of Mercedes, the German OEM is ramping up its production, and it shows, not only the A250e hatchback is on fire, but its family siblings have also landed with positive numbers, with the CLA250e sports sedan delivering 410 units in its first month, while the family-friendly B250e MPV delivered 202 units last month. 

Other Mercedes shining were the GLC300e, that delivered 1,047 units, a new record for the Mercedes midsize PHEV, allowing it to be #21 in the YTD table, only 9 units behind the Volvo S/V60 PHEV twins, while the GLE350de registered 100 units last month, the big Mercedes first three-digit score ever in its home market. 

On the other hand, the EQC is still stuck in low numbers (239 units in August), and considering the decent numbers of the midsize EV in other markets, it seems local buyers are just not into the electric SUV.

Still, the three-pointed star maker has more to think about, like the ramp up of the next-in-line models: the GLA250e (60 units in August, surely the first of thousands more this year) and the EQV (23 units last month). 

Looking at other position changes, the Hyundai Kona EV was up 5 spots, to #6, the Ford Kuga PHEV jumped 3 positions, to #11, and should join the Top 10 in the coming months, while the Smart Fortwo EV climbed to #14 and the Skoda Superb PHEV was up to #19.

Outside the Top 20, a reference for the record 720 units of the Audi A6 PHEV and the 402 deliveries of the BMW X5 PHEV, while the Nissan Leaf (yes, it's still on sale) surprised many by delivering 322 units last month, its best score in the last 21 months, and the Polestar 2 landed last month in Germany, with 239 deliveries.

A final note for the VW ID.3, preparing for the next month flood, the German maker registered 388 units in August, no doubt demonstration units, as these units will be an important step in the OEM's Plan to rule the EV World, currently in Year Zero.  

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (15%, down 1%) leads the way and is now being followed by the rising Mercedes (12%, up 1%), that has relegated Audi (10%, down 1%) to the last place of the podium. Interestingly, in just three months, Mercedes jumped from 4th to 2nd... 

Outside the podium, BMW (7%, down 1%) has the #5 Renault (7%, down 1%) breathing on its neck.

On a final note, the Volkswagen Group total share is now of 30% (VW - 15%; Audi - 10%, Skoda - 3%; Porsche - 2%), well above the 15% (up 1%) of the Daimler Group or the 11% (down 1%) of the Renault-Nissan Alliance. And the BMW Group? Well...8%, or almost half of Daimler.

And to think BMW won the previous 4 Manufacturer titles...The Times They Are A-Changin', indeed... 

Australia August 2020 (V2.0)

Tesla leads the EV Revolution in Australia

Close to 4.000 plug-ins were sold this year in Australia, up 6% YoY against a background of a dropping overall market (-20%), with BEVs pulling the market forward (74% of registrations belong to pure EVs) in a previously PHEV-friendly market, placing the PEV Share at 0.7% (1% in August), so 2020 could be the first time that the Australian plugin market ends North of the all-important 1% mark.

The main reason for the good numbers was the arrival of the Tesla Model 3, that is responsible for almost half of plugin registrations, in what was a dormant market before it.

But looking at the models ranking, the BEV takeover isn't limited to Tesla, as only the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV resists to the pure electric wave.

In the remaining Top 5 positions, we have the Hyundai Kona EV in #3 (is the local Hyundai importer still suffering from allocation constraints?), while the Nissan Leaf is #4, with 250 registrations, just above the #5 Hyundai Ioniq Electric (231).

In the manufacturers ranking, there is really no competition for Tesla, with 52% share, with the road open for 2020 to be its 4th consecutive Manufacturers title, while Hyundai (15%) is in #2, followed by the six times winner Mitsubishi (11%), while outside the podium, we have Nissan (7%).

Denmark August 2020

 

Ford Kuga Craze in booming market (20% share!)

Plugin sales are going through the roof this year, with 14,818 units so far (+390%!), and the main culprit is the Ford Kuga PHEV, that in August was for the second time in a row the Best Selling model in the overall market, with 1.509 units!

Does anyone knows why Danes have all of the sudden fallen in love with Ford's crossover?... 

The 4.122 Kuga PHEV registered this year would alone pull the plugin share to new heights, but the truth is that other models are also experiencing record sales, in this Top 10 alone, we have 3 new new highs, with the #7 Hyundai Kona EV registering 150 units last month, its Group sibling Kia Niro EV also scoring a record 141 deliveries, while the Peugeot 3008 PHEV recorded a best ever performance of 185 deliveries in August. 

This group of brilliant results pulled the PEV share in August to 20% share, pulling the 2020 share to 12% last month, although one should notice that plugin hybrids are the majority of sales (65%), if we count only the 5.258 BEV registrations made this year, the EV share is just 4,2%...

It seems PHEVs are replacing diesel models as the company car default choice, hence the sudden rise of plugin hybrids.

Looking at the Best Sellers ranking, the Ford Kuga PHEV is high above anyone else, with this market being by far the most successful for the plugin crossover, while in 2nd we have last year's leader, the Tesla Model 3, that nevertheless, has seen its sales grow 29% YoY, so Tesla doesn't have much to complain about...

The last place of the podium is now in the hands of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, a late bloomer in Denmark (it was #6 last year), that is experiencing its best moment so far in this market.

Below the podium, we have 3 Kias and 1 Hyundai, confirming the popularity of these brands in the market, while the Peugeot 3008 PHEV makes a surprise appearance in the Top 10, as PSA continues ramp up deliveries, as it tries to empty waiting lists.

Outside the table, a reference to the strong start of the Peugeot 208 EV, with 54 registrations in its landing month, while its French arch-rival, the Renault Zoe, scored 62 registrations, a new Year Best for the Renault nameplate.

In the Manufacturers ranking, Ford (28%) jumped to the leadership, removing the #3 Tesla (13%) from the top spot, while Kia (14%) is the new runner-up, and Volkswagen (9%) is looking to connect to the podium places.

Norway August 2020

 

Skoda Octavia PHEV: Norway's next Success Story?

Polestar 2 lands in 70% share market

The Norwegian automotive market was down 11% YoY last month, but plugins continue on the rise, with BEVs up 21% in August, to 5.704 units, while PHEVs did even bettter, up 56% YoY, to 1.881 units, pure electrics alone represented 53% of the total, and adding plugin hybrids to the tally, we get 70% share, keeping the 2020 PEV share at 69% (48% BEV).

Looking at the fuels breakdown, if plugins are up, the rest is down, and even HEVs are now suffering from the blackhole effect of PEVs, as their sales are down 39% YoY, now having 9% share of the market, but petrol and diesel are even worse, with the first down 42%, to 11% share, while the latter dropped 47%, to just 10%, in the same month last year, diesel had 19% share...Will we see the diesel slutten next year?

Looking at August model sales by fuel, we have once again a 100% BEV Top 5, with the Audi e-Tron leading the pack, followed by the Mercedes EQC, that with its production issues now a thing of the past, is running with the best in this market.

This month surprise was of course the Polestar 2, that came out of nowhere into #3, with 494 units , and should become a regular face in this Top 5 from now on. 

In September, up until the 7th, the Polestar 2 is 3rd, with 188 units, just behind the Tesla Model 3 (269) and the new VW ID.3 (226). 

The remaining Top 5 saw the VW e-Golf win another presence, with 489 units, narrowly missing another podium, while the Hyundai Kona EV was 5th, with 408 deliveries.

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Audi e-Tron	755
2	Mercedes EQC	595
3	Polestar 2	494
4	VW e-Golf	489
5	Hyundai Kona EV	408

Looking at the 2020 ranking, if the podium positions seem secure for now, there is a rising star in the Top 10, with the Mercedes EQC jumping 3 spots last month, to #6, with the midsize Mercedes, possibly rising a couple more positions in the near future.

The Hyundai Ioniq Electric climbed to #12, surpassing its hybrid rival, the Toyota Corolla Hybrid, while the MG ZS EV and Toyota RAV4 Hybrid also did the same to the Volvo XC60 PHEV, with the Sino-British crossover climbing to #14, and the Japanese to #15.

The Peugeot 208 EV was up to #17, thanks to a record 268 deliveries, surpassing its hybrid rival, the Toyota Yaris Hybrid (Do you see a trend here?...).

In the unplugged category, the highest standing is the Skoda Octavia, in #8 (which bodes well for the success of its PHEV version...), with the #11 Toyota C-HR leading the Toyota hybrid pack. 

Interestingly, both the #8 Skoda Octavia and the #15 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid will have PHEV versions soon, so we might see just 3 unplugged models in the Top 20 in the near future.

Outside the Top 20, this month wasn't only about the Polestar 2, as the Peugeot 2008 EV crossover scored a record month, with 239 units, while the Porsche Taycan continues to rise, reaching a record 222 deliveries in August, and the Kia Niro EV scored 151 units, its best performance in the last 17 months, so it seems the recent production ramp up of the Korean maker allowed it to have more units available for this market. Will it get a Top 20 soon?

Looking at the overall manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (12%) is in the leadership, with Audi (10%) in the runner-up spot, with the #3 Toyota (8%, down 1%) suffering from the seismic changes happening (regular hybrids are sooo 2010...).

Outside the podium, Volvo and BMW (both at 7%) are leading a wolf pack of makers (Hyundai, Mercedes, Skoda all have 6% share), all looking to eat Toyota alive reach the Bronze medal.