Tuesday, November 24, 2020

China October 2020


Wuling Mini EV shines in hot market

While the overall Chinese market remained with positive numbers last month (+9% YoY), plugins sales are firmly on the fast lane, growing by 120% YoY in October, to 147,000 units, a new year best, with BEVs growing faster (+128%), than plugin hybrids (+93%), allowing pure electrics to have 82% of all plugin sales last month, slightly above this year average of 79%.

Last month, plugin share reached 7% (5.4% BEV), pulling the 2020 share to 5.4% (4.3% BEV), that although is still below from the 5.5% score of 2019, it is a step in the right direction and it should surpass last year's result already in November.

Looking at October Best Sellers, we have 3 City EVs, confirming the return of small EVs to the spotlight, with the Wuling EV keeping the Best Seller status..

Here’s October Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:


#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

 A big name for a small car, the Wuling EV scored a record 20,631 units last month, a new all-time record for a single model in China, meaning that the production ramp up continues, so expect the tiny four-seater to continue growing until the end of the year. The reason for the overnight success? It is one of the cheapest EVs on the market ($4,200!!!), and yet, it’s not all that bad, as the SAIC-GM-Wuling joint-venture model can seat 4 people in car that is a tad larger (2,917 mm / 114.8 in) than a Smart Fortwo EV. Range is not brilliant (smaller battery version has 9.2 kWh battery, top spec version has a 13.8 kWh battery), just like the motor (27hp), but it has only 665 kg curb weight to carry around and is highway capable, so in order to have the 4,200 USD price, without subsidies, one can’t expect miracles... At this price level, the Wuling EV is in position to be a disruptive force in urban mobility, not only against 4-wheeled private transportation, but also against 2 and 3-wheelers. This EV could be a game changer, and not only in China...


#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility hit 12,143 units last month, with Tesla’s midsizer steady in the 10,000-plus cruise speed. With the recent refresh and new LFP SR+ version added to the year end sales bump right on the corner, will we see it reach some 15,000 units/month in December?


 #3 – Great Wall ORA Black Cat (R1)

Probably inspired by Deng Xiaoping famous quote: "It doesn't matter wether a cat is black or white, as long as it catched mice",  Great Wall decided to create a Cat Pack, transforming its tiny R1 Smart-lookalike into the Black Cat, launching the R2 model (think Scion XB/Toyota Urban Cruiser kind of vehicle) as the White Cat, and to lead the Pack, Great Wall is now preparing the launch of the Good Cat, a chunky (and funky) compact hatchback (VW Golf sized) that kinda looks like a Porsche 356 in the front, a Toyota from the side, and the back...Well, it’s its own thing. But enough of the Good Cat, we are here to talk about the Black Cat, that delivered 6.269 units in October, the City EV highest score ever, so it looks the new name is allowing a second youth to the Ora Black Cat, making it a good cat, because of the many mice sales it gets.

#4 – SAIC Baojun E-Series

Compared with the bare basics Wuling EV, the Baojun E-Series (E100/200/300) are the SGMW more hip and upmarket city models, seeing their demand stay high during the past few months, scoring even a Year Best result last month, thanks to 5,949 units delivered. The access to the current subsidy, added to competitive pricing (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) before subsidies, makes them appealing for young urban drivers, as well as car-sharing companies and other fleets. 

#5 – BYD Han EV

BYD's flagship model was 5th in October, having registered 5,055 units, a new record for the sleek sedan, so it looks the production ramp up is going smoothly and demand is allowing consecutive record performances. One of the most competitive domestic EVs on the market, the Han EV will probably become a regular in this Top 5, thanks to competitive pricing, it's the size of a Model S, and yet it costs only $32,800, less than the cheaper Model 3. But price doesn't tell the whole story, with a cutting edge 77 kWh LFP battery allowing it to reach 605 km (376 miles) NEDC range (think 400 km / 250 miles in real world), the Han EV is a whole package, with good looks, competitive specs and features, with the killer prices being just the icing on the cake.

Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in October, a mention to a few record performances, namely SAIC's Roewe Clever EV, with the Shanghai-based maker banking on the synergies of the SGMW joint-venture in small EVs, it has also created it's own vision of the tiny two-seater theme, with the Clever EV, that clocked 3,054 units last month.

The Welmeister EX5 record month (3,003 units), added to Leapmotor's surprising  score of 1,681 units coming from its small T03 EV, confirms the good moment (and variety, Leapmotor even has a small coupe, the S01) of local EV Startups, while BYD had 3 models with record performances, besides the aforementioned Han EV (5,055 units), the Han PHEV (2,490) evil twin also hit a record score, with the two models clocking 7,545 units if added together, while the compact BYD e2 also reach a record 2,598 units, and even the Tang PHEV had its best score of the last 18 months, with 3,721 units, with these performances confirming the return to form from the Shenzhen maker.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the sucess of Geely’s Geometry C, with 1,189 units, with the Chinese maker succeeding with this hatchback, where its sedan (Geometry A) failed. A mention also to the ramp up of the Great Wall Ora R2/White Cat, that delivered 1,651 units, while the recent SAIC Roewe ER6 EV sedan is also ramping up fast, having reached 1.124 units last month.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, if the Model 3 is the undisputed leader, below it, the Wuling Mini EV is running away from the rest of the pack and has already consolidated its runner-up spot, a nice start for next year's Best Selling EV in China.

This highlights the latest trend in China, City EVs are returning to the spotlight, not only with the Wuling EV, but also the #5 Baojun E-Series, the newly called Great Wall Ora Black Cat in #6, and the Chery eQ that climbed to #7 in October, thus making 4 City EVs in the Top 7   

But it weren’t only City EVs rising in the table, as the local EV startups continue climbing positions, with the Li Xiang One yacht large SUV rising to #9, and becoming the Best Selling PHEV in the table, by switching positions with the BMW 530Le.

The much hyped XPeng P7 had reasons to celebrate, as the sedan joined the table, in #20, while BYD and SAIC also had a positive month, as the BYD Han EV climbed to #18 and the Tang PHEV jumped two spots, to #15, and the Shanghai-based maker saw the small Roewe Clever EV join the Top 20, in #19, and the MG ZS EV crossover going up to #13.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (15%) is in the leadership, followed by the #2 Tesla (12%), and the SGMW joint-venture (10%, up 1% share).

Below the podium, the race is tight, SAIC (7%, up 1% share) is now 4th, overcoming the #5 GAC (6%), while Volkswagen (5%, down 1% share) fell from 4th to 6th in just one month, the German maker needs desperately those ID.4's to start flooding the market, because the remaining line up is already falling behind.

Interestingly, if we were to add the SGMW (10%) tally to the one of SAIC (7%), Shanghai Auto would be the market leader in China, with 17% share...

Friday, November 20, 2020

Germany October 2020


18% share in record month! 

The German plugin market had yet another record month in October, with a little over 48,000 units, and this time it were BEVs to drive the market forward, up 365%(!), to 23,158 units, helping plugins as a whole jump an amazing 303% last month, with the plugin share reaching a record 18% (8.4% BEV), pulling the yearly tally to 11% (5.3% BEV), so this market is now firmly in the two-digits area, also known as...The Disruption Zone.

And in a (sort of) stable market (-4% YoY), petrol (-30%) and diesel (-19%) continue falling, to the benefit of electricity, leaving fossil fuels as deadweights on the shoulders of Legacy OEMs...

Looking at last month Best Sellers, in October the Renault Zoe broke once again all records, by registering 5,010 units, beating the runner-up VW ID.3, that built on the 1,771 units of September to deliver 2,647 units, with Volkswagen placing a 2nd model on the podium, as the Passat GTE broke its record, by delivering 2,053 units, allowing it to reach the 3rd place in October.

Below the podium Top Sellers, the #4 Hyundai Kona EV jumped to #4 in September, benefiting from the increased capacity of the Czech plant, registering a record 1,932 units, in fact in a record month, best ever performances are plenty, in the September Top 20, 15 models had record scores, 7 of them coming from the VW Group stable (VW ID.3, VW Passat GTE, Audi Q5 PHEV, Audi A6 PHEV, Audi e-Tron, Skoda Superb PHEV, VW Golf PHEV), highlighting the production ramp-up of the German conglomerate, while the VW e-Golf had 1,300 registrations, an impressive performance, considering its much improved successor is already established.

Outside this Top 20, we have several models in ramp-up mode, like the Volvo XC40 PHEV (620 units), or the 710 registrations of the Mini Cooper EV, while the Mercedes GLE350de continues to ramp up production (655 deliveries) and we welcome the first 72 registrations of the new VW ID.4 SUV, no doubt the first of many. 

Regarding the 2020 table, the podium positions remained the same, with the leader Zoe probably having 2020 title secured, because the 6,830 units of advantage over the #2 VW e-Golf and the 10.383 units over the #3 Tesla Model 3 now seem impossible to beat.

The first position change happened in #5, with the Hyundai Kona EV rising one spot, immediately followed by the Mercedes E300e/de, that was up to #7.

Speaking of Mercedes, the three-pointed-star maker had another model climbing in the table, with the GLC300e/de rising to #16, while their Daimler Group cousin, the Smart Fortwo EV joined the Top 10, in #8. 

Below the tiny hatchback, we have two Audis on the rise, with the e-Tron rising to #10, while the Q5 PHEV was up to #12. 

Highlighting the good moment of the VW Group, the VW ID.3 joined the table, in #18,with the Volkswagen new baby looking to reach a Top 10 position by year end, while on the BMW stable, the i3 climbed one position, to #14.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (14%, down 1%) lead is now being threatened by the rising Mercedes (14%), that thanks to a strong (and long) PHEV lineup, is looking to reach the top spot. The ID.3 (and upcoming ID.4) volume deliveries are coming right on time for the Wolfsburg brand...

The #3 Audi (10%) remains stable, while outside the podium, Renault (8%) stays ahead of BMW (7%).

On a final note, the Volkswagen Group total share is stable at 30% (VW - 14%; Audi - 10%, Skoda - 4%; Porsche - 2%), above the rising Daimler Group, with 18%, with the Renault-Nissan Alliance closing the podium, with 12%.

Thursday, November 19, 2020

France October 2020

Renault Twingo lands in hot market (12% share!)

If the overall automotive market continues in negative ground (-10% in October), plugin sales continue steaming hot (+360%!), with PHEVs (up 388%, to 9,945 units, a new record) in particular, shining above everyone, allowing them to have a 50% share among plugins, an all-time high for the technology in this BEV-friendly market, and well above the 38% share they have in the whole year. 

These disruptive numbers are also reflecting on the plugin share, as last month it reached 12% (6% BEV), pulling the YTD share to 9.7% (6% BEV), so one can say that the bulk of growth comes from PHEVs. 

Expect the numbers to improve in the remainder of the year, with the 2020 tally probably going north of 10% by year end, which will prelude the upcoming #Disruption '21 - French Edition

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the top 2 were the usual local heroes, but below them, we have the two new local players, both playing on the PHEV field, that explain part of the recent sales surge in that technology, with the Renault Captur PHEV jumping to 3rd, thanks to a record 1,693 registrations, while the Citroen C5 Aircross PHEV ramped up deliveries to 926 units, with the double chevron SUV looking to ramp up production fast and beat the small Renault crossover in the last two stages of the 2020 race. 

We have two models tied in #5, with the Kia Niro EV scoring a record 678 registrations, the same number of units that the new Renault Twingo had in its landing month, a promising result for Renault's much anticipated (and delayed...) new baby.

Speaking of fresh models, a reference also to the VW ID.3, that scored 524 units in its second month in France, which is lower than the 616 units of the landing month. Allocation issues, or is it something else?

On the other hand, Mercedes is busy ramping up deliveries of its extensive PHEV lineup, with 3 models hitting relevant (and record) performances last month: the GLC300e/de SUV scored 513 units, the A250e hatchback had 395 units, while the new GLA250e compact SUV is already at 249 deliveries. 

It took them a while to get their show on the road, but the fact is that Mercedes is now well ahead of its arch-rival BMW, that had their only decent performances coming from Mini, with the Cooper EV scoring a record 425 deliveries, while the Countryman PHEV (225 units), outsold every BMW plugin model available...

Outside this Top 20, a reference to the landing of the SEAT Leon PHEV, with a relevant 184 units, while Jeep's plugin models are starting to gain traction, with the small Renegade PHEV registering 126 units, while the compact Compass PHEV had 125 deliveries.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, while the top 2 remain unattainable, the last position of the podium can changed hands, with the Peugeot 3008 PHEV recovering the 3rd spot (only to lose it next December, the time of the next Tesla high tide on French shores), while below them, the Kia Niro EV surpassed a falling DS 7 PHEV, with the Korean crossover now reaching the 6th position. 

But the Climber of the Month was the Renault Captur PHEV, that shooted 7 positions, into #8, with the small French crossover focused on climbing up the ladder in the final two stages and steal the Best Selling PHEV title from the Peugeot 3008 PHEV. 

On the second half of the table, we have the VW Golf PHEV climbing two spots, to #16, thanks to fresh units coming from the new generation Golf VIII, while below this position, we have four fresh faces in the table:

- The #17 Citroen C5 Aircross PHEV SUV replaced the Jurassic Citroen C-Zero on the table, signaling a new age for the French brand, that i am sure the upcoming C4 EV hatchback will play an important follow up role;

- The Mini Cooper EV joined the table in #18, proving that range isn't everything, especially in the small car category, where price and desirability are also key factors;

- The well rounded Mercedes A250e reached the table, in #19, becoming the second model of the three-pointed-star brand in the Top 20, signaling the rising importance of the German brand on the plugin market;

- Finally, in #20, we have the Opel Corsa EV, the 8th(!) PSA model in the table, with the French conglomerate benefiting from a large collection of brands (Peugeot, Citroen, DS, Opel) to populate the table. 

IF the upcoming PSA-FCA merger manages to successfully integrate the 114 brands it will have under its umbrella, the future Stellantis Group will become a force to be reckoned, as it will have a massive scale and will play relevant roles in several major markets, with the exception being Asia, and most specifically, China, where they lack a competitive local associate.

Looking at the brands ranking, the leader is, as always, Renault (26%, up 1%), with the runner-up Peugeot (19%) at a safe distance, while the last place in the podium is being disputed by a long list of brands (Tesla, Hyundai, Kia, DS), all with 5% share.

As for OEMs, the Renault-Nissan Alliance (30%) has recovered and in now ahead of PSA (28%), while the best foreign OEM is  Hyundai-Kia, with 10% share.

Tuesday, November 17, 2020

Netherlands October 2020


VW ID.3 shines in hot market (29% Share!)

October saw the Dutch EV market saw it return to the fast lane, jumping 228% YoY, to 9,16 units, the market 's best score, if we exclude the December months, that are prone incentive-derived year end rushes. 

So...will next December post a new record performance?

The PEV market share jumped to 29% (23% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 17% (13% BEV), and this time BEVs were the main driver of growth, being responsible for 79% of all plugin sales last month, above the 75% yearly average, mostly thanks to a great result from the VW ID.3, that had 2.789 deliveries last month.

As such, looking at last month sellers, it was all about the deployment of ID.3 units, that represented almost a third of all plugin registrations, allowing it to be the #1 in the overall market, leaving the #2 Kia Niro some 1,600 units behind.

But there was more to talk about than the VW's new baby, as the Kia Niro EV registered a record 752 units, a whole 3 units above the September result, so it seems Kia's production is maxed out for the moment, so expect 2 other 700-something performances in the next couple of months for the Korean crossover, while the Polestar 2 closed the podium, with 472 units. 

Outside the Top 3, it's crossover season, with 3 representatives of the category between 4th and 6th, with the Hyundai Kona EV in 4th, the strong personality of the Mazda MX-30 surprises everyone and reaches #5, with 355 deliveries, while the Volvo XC40 PHEV (322 units) was last month Best Selling PHEV, with a slight difference regarding their S/V60 PHEV siblings (303), with Volvo being the only brand selling plugin hybrids in large numbers, which bodes well for the upcoming Volvo XC40 EV...

Another recent addition to the market showing strong results is the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French crossover benefiting from PSA's production ramp up to reach 257 deliveries in October. 

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the Kia Niro EV has recovered the leadership from the Tesla Model 3, but the current 698 units separating them are still not enough to secure the final win, because the Californian is expected to have a strong high tide in December, so this year Best Seller title should only be decided in the last stage of the race.

Buth the Climber of the Month was undoubtedly the VW ID.3, that shooted from #19 in September to the current 3rd spot, already surpassing its e-Golf predecessor, and although the first two are too far to be bothered, the German hatchback will be one of the strongest candidates for the 2021 title.

On the second half of the table, the Audi e-Tron was up one position, to #13, consolidating its position as the Best Selling Luxury model, while the Opel Corsa EV benefited from the PSA production ramp up to increase deliveries and climb to #15.

We have a new face in the table, with the Polestar 2 shooting to #17, while the Mazda MX-30 should join the table soon, which could remove one of the 4 PHEVs in this Top 20.

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia (12%, down 2%) and Tesla (10%, down 2%), were both surpassed by Volkswagen (14%, up 4%), while Volvo (10%) is running for the Bronze medal.

Friday, November 13, 2020

Spain October 2020

Record Month

Despite the Spanish automotive market being in the doldrums, with the overall market dropping 37% this year, the plugin market is better than ever, having scored a record result in October, with the YTD numbers growing 67% YoY, to 25.610 units. 

But growth wasn't the same between BEVs and PHEVs, because while pure electrics are growing 30% YoY, to 11.928 units, plugin hybrid sales are jumping throught the roof, shooting 124%, hitting 13.682 units, with the latter winning significant share (58% PHEV vs 42% BEV in October, against 53% PHEV, 47% BEV in 2020), a significant fact in a traditionally BEV-friendly market.

Share-wise, last month plugins reached 5,9% (2,5% BEV), pulling the 2020 PEV share to 3,8% (1,8% BEV).

As for last month best sellers, we had a surprising winner last month, with the Hyundai Kona EV winning last month Best Seller trophy, thanks to a record 267 registrations, followed by the Renault Zoe (253 units), while the Peugeot 3008 PHEV closed the podium, with 233 deliveries, a new record for the Peugeot SUV. 

These good performances from the Hyundai and Peugeot models allowed them to climb positions in the YTD table, to #5 and #4 respectively, with the French SUV coming closer to the current Best Selling PHEV and SUV trophy holder, the #3 Kia Niro PHEV, now just 15 units ahead, so expect a close race between these two.  

But the Climber of the Month was the Volvo XC40 PHEV, that was up 3 positions, to #9, highlighting the popularity of the most compact Volvo, while behind it, the Nissan Leaf climbed to #10 (discounts always work to move metal...) and the Kia Xceed PHEV jumped two positions, to #16.

Highlighting Peugeot's good moment, besides the 3008 PHEV monthly win, the 508 PHEV was up to #18, thanks to 91 deliveries, the midsizer best performance since January, while the 2008 crossover joined the table, in #20, thanks to a record 137 registrations, but PSA's production ramp up is also benefiting the other brands, as the Citroen C5 Aircross PHEV delivered 127 units in October, while there were 72 deliveries of the Opel Corsa EV.  

But PSA is not the only OEM introducing new models and ramping up production, BMW had its Mini Cooper EV reaching the 119 deliveries, and with the electric hot hatch only 9 units behind the #20 Peugeot 2008 EV, expect the British model to join the table soon.

Mercedes is also ramping up the volumes of its extensive PHEV lineup, with 147 units of the A250e, 144 of the GLA250e, 82 of the GLC300e/de and 76 of the CLA sports sedan, while the Volkswagen Group saw the Seat Leon PHEV reach 109 deliveries last month and the new Golf VIII PHEV land with 55 units, a promising result for the new model, but on the other hand, the Volkswagen new ID.3 had 129 deliveries last month, already down from the 166 units of September's landing month. 

Does this ID.3 drop mean anything? We have to wait a few more months to know if it's an allocation or demand issue, but comparing the Golf PHEV and the ID.3 results, it seems the plugin Golf will continue to be an important player in the market. 

On the manufacturers ranking, the top two positions remained stable, with Peugeot (12%) ahead, followed by Kia (9%), that has displaced Renault (8%) to the 3rd spot.

Outside the podium, we have Hyundai and Volvo, both with 7% share, looking to displace Renault from the Bronze medal. 

Wednesday, November 11, 2020

Estonia October 2020

Nissan Leaf leads hot market

After a long absence, Estonia is back at EV Sales, while 2019 was a year to forget, regarding plugin sales in this market, with PEV registrations falling 27% regarding the previous year, 2020 is witnessing surging sales, with 313 new plugins being registered so far, which means a 304% jump in sales regarding the previous year, pulling the current market share to 1.9% (2.1% in October), and although it is still below the 2.6% record year of 2012, when Estonia was seen like a sort of "Little Norway", it marks the return of the Baltic country to the fast lane, moving the needle up, so in 2021 we should see it break its share record, that currently is the oldest on record.

Speaking of Norway, a common trace between both markets is the popularity of BEVs, this is most definetely a BEV-friendly market, with all electrics having 79% of the plugin market this year, with October scoring a 94%(!) share.

The Nissan Leaf is synonym with "EV" here, having won every Best Seller trophy since 2013...

...But this year's title isn't yet in the bag, because in Second we have the surprising Porsche Taycan(!), that is just 5 units behind, while the #3 Renault Zoe and #4 Tesla Model 3 aren't yet out of action, .

One could argue that counting the Skoda Citigo EV (16 units) together with the VW e-Up (21), these two being basically the same car, then the real Best Sellers here would be the triplets from the VW Group, but...let's not go into technicalities, the 2020 Best Seller will most likely be the Nissan Leaf, so better luck next year, Leaf challengers (Renault Zoe, Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3).  

In the manufacturers ranking, Porsche (16%) is the surprise leader, ahead of the chronic leader Nissan (it has won every Best Selling manufacturer title since 2013), with 11% share while Volkswagen (10%) and Tesla (9%) are with the Japanese maker for the Silver medal. 

Tuesday, November 10, 2020

Switzerland October 2020

 Tesla Model 3 at Zurich Formula E Championship, Switzerland - YouTube

14% Share!

The Swiss plugin market was up 156% in October, with 2.963 registrations and 14% share, pulling the 2020 growth rate to 71%, thanks to 22.063 registrations, with the PEV share now at a record 12% (5,5% last year), helped by the fact that the overall market is falling 27% this year, with BEVs representing 57% of all plugin sales (50% in October).

The leader Tesla Model 3 and the runner-up Renault Zoe can now find space for their 2020 medals, but the Bronze medal is still open for discussion, between the #4 Hyundai Kona EV and a pack of Volvos, with the XC60 PHEV currently holding the 3rd spot and keeping the Hyundai at a safe distance, while the XC40 PHEV and S/V60 PHEV are chasing the Korean crossover.

Speaking of Tesla, the Model X is back at the table, in #16, but the Audi e-Tron came out of nowhere into #9, while another high end BEV also joined the table, with the Porsche Taycan showing up at #18.

Last month, the Climber of the Month was the VW ID.3, that in its second month on the market, it jumped to 10th, with the VW new baby racing to reach a spot on the Top 5 by year end.

Other position changes were the Mini Cooper EV climbing to #15, thanks to a record 79 deliveries, while the BMW X1 PHEV joined the table, in #20.

A mention also for the Nissan Leaf, that with 59 registrations, had its best scores in two years (Ahhhh...Discounts. Always a sure way to increase sales)

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 107 registrations of the Renault Captur PHEV, while the Mazda MX-30 is also being delivered in volume (81 units), the ramp-up of the Toyota RAV4 PHEV continues with 73 registrations, while the VW Golf VIII PHEV (55 units) and Citroen C5 Aircross PHEV (54) have landed with positive scores, so both the German and the French models should have good results in the future.

In the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is in the lead, with 17% share, followed by Volvo (12%) and Renault (11%), while BMW (10%) is looking to return to the podium.