Global Top 5 - Mid Game Bet (Q1 2019)

Hot. Smokin' hot...

With March numbers still coming in, we can already say that the Tesla Model 3 is the Q1 '19 Best Seller.

2019 Top 5 Models

1. Tesla Model 3 - 51k

2. BYD Yuan EV - 25k

3. Nissan Leaf - 21k

4. BAIC EU-Series - 20k

5. BYD Tang PHEV - 15k

5. BYD e5 - 15k

Manufacturers

As for carmakers, BYD (71k) is still ahead, but Tesla (63k) is closing in. The #3 SAIC (27k) is already far behind, so the top two are really in league of their own.

Ukraine February 2019 & Georgia Q1 2019

Ukraine

With Ukraine being a little known success story in the EV world, in 2018 the PEV share crossed North of the 1% mark in new car sales, while adding used imports to the tally, the score jumps to over 5% of registrations, this country demonstrated a winning formula for the electrification of developing countries: exempting taxes (import tax, road tax, etc), allows that the private sector to import used EVs from markets where electric vehicles are common (California, Japan etc), where old EVs like the Nissan Leaf are cheap, as locals disregard them for having low range and feeling sooo-2013.  

This way, these EVs instead of gaining dust in used dealer lots of developed markets, gain a new life in new countries, where their cheap prices and running costs are a boon for customers avid for electric cars, but that just can't afford for a new car, let alone a new EV.

This year, Ukraine continues on the right track, with the 114 new plugins registered representing a bit more than 1% share of the total new car market.

Of this niche, the Jaguar i-Pace(!) is the 2019 Best Seller, with 21 deliveries, followed by the BMW i3 (12 units), and the Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe cousins, both with 11 registrations.

Adding used imports, the numbers swell to some 6% PEV share, with the Nissan Leaf representing about half of the registrations.

JAC iEV7S in Georgia

Georgia

This Caucasus country is also using the "second hand EV" formula to fast-track their transport electrification plans, if new car plugin sales are only starting to move the needle (0.5% PEV share in 2018), adding used imports, the 2019 share starts to become significant, at 2.1%.

Used Nissan Leafs are also popular here, being the most common EV in this market, but the Chevrolet Volt is a close Second, with more than 100 registrations this year alone, while the Third most registered EV is the BMW i3, with only 16 registrations, so basically this is a Leaf/Volt market.

As for 0 km units, only Hyundai is looking at this market half-seriously, delivering a few Ioniq Electric, along with a larger fleet of Ioniq Hybrid registrations.

This market, although small, could present an opportunity for brands like Nissan (Leaf), Renault (Zoe), or Mitsubishi (Outlander PHEV) to deliver an few additional units of their EVs, and stay ahead of the curve, as the Chinese JAC has been already testing the waters here, with 2 iEV7S Crossover being registered late last year. And other Chinese are coming.

Nissan in particular has a chance to avoid the mistake made in Ukraine, where it took forever to start selling the Leaf officially, when there were already thousands of second hand units zooming around on Ukranian roads...

New Zealand March 2019

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV consolidates #1

Plugins remain a hot item in New Zealand, last month, 149 new PEVs were sold in New Zealand, keeping the year result at a record 1.8% share, a significant improvement over the 1.4% of 2018.

Looking at the models ranking, the leader Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV increased the advantage over the runner-up Hyundai Kona EV, by registering 13 more units (40, to be exact) than the Korean Crossover.

Last month the Tesla Model X profited from the last-month-of-quarter peak, to reach the podium.

Good month for the BMW Group, with the BMW i3 climbing to #7, while the Mini Countryman PHEV joined the ranking, in #8, tied with the Audi A3 e-Tron and Kia Niro EV.

In the Manufacturers ranking, Hyundai started the year as it ended 2018, being the surprise leader, with 27% share, while the seven times Best Selling Manufacturer Mitsubishi is in Second Place (26%), and Tesla (9%, up 1%) is Third. 

Switzerland March 2019

Tesla Model 3 tsunami (Swiss Edition)

The Swiss PEV market smashed the previous sales record (1.341 units) last month, by registering 2.162 units, with the PEV share jumping to 7.5% (6.4% from BEVs, 1.1% PHEVs), pulling the 2019 PEV share to 5.3%, almost doubling last year result.

The Tesla Model 3 deliveries tsunami was the main reason for this brilliant performance, with the sedan having 1.094 registrations, not only an absolute record for a plugin, but also the first time that an electric vehicle is #1, all fuels included.

In the 2019 ranking the Model 3 is #4, well ahead of its direct ICE competition, the Mercedes C-Class is only #9 in the mainstream market, with 1.127 units, but with the #2 VW Golf (1.681 units)not that far away, the Californian can easily reach the runner-up spot, and even aspire to remove the Skoda Octavia (2.361 units) from the leadership.

But if the Model 3 is pulling plugins to new heights, the Tesla Model S and X are losing steam, while both ended 2018 in the Top 5, now the highest placed (Model S) is only #8.

Their ICE competitors are also further ahead, while last year the Model S was running at the same pace of its category best sellers, this time the class Best Seller (Mercedes E-Class - 551 units) is selling much more than the Tesla flagship, while things for the Model X are even worse, as last year it managed to feature regularly in the category Top 5, now it is only #12 in the full size SUV class...And only 4 units ahead of the just landed Audi e-Tron.

Looking elsewhere, the Audi e-Tron landed with the right foot, by delivering 93 units in its debut month, jumping immediately to #11, only 4 units behind the Tesla Model X, while two other recent long range BEVs are also shining, with the Hyundai Kona EV in #4 and the Jaguar i-Pace in #9.

On the PHEV side, the leader is the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, in #5, being followed by the Volvo XC60 PHEV, #7 and 48 units behind the Japanese SUV.

Another Swede on the news is the new generation Volvo V60 PHEV, that joined the Top 20, in #16, delivering 31 units last month, the nameplate best performance ever on this market. 

In the manufacturers ranking, Switzerland is now Tesla (42%) turf, with Renault (10%) in a distant 2nd place, followed by BMW (9%), while Volvo (8%) is set to return to the medal positions soon.

Norway March 2019

Tesla Model 3 leads the BEV army in a historic month

Last month, BEVs doubled registrations YoY, pushing the overall market up (+28%), despite every other fuel dropping at least 20%, which lead to a record BEV (58%) and PEV (69%) shares, with the Tesla Model 3 deliveries going through the roof in March, with 5,315 registrations, a new all-time record for any nameplate in Norway, whatever the fuel. 

In this context, the current 61% PEV share in 2019 should grow to some 70% PEV share this year, with peak months possibly reaching 80%. 

The fuels mix is showing BEVs as the standard choice (58%), while every other fuel is falling significantly, like petrol dropping to 12% share (20% a year ago), or diesel being down to 10% (16% last year). The time when diesel sales are in single digits is getting nearer by the day. 

So, this is what disruption looks like…

Looking at last month Top Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 broke all possible records, with 5,315 units, being followed by the #2 VW e-Golf and the #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that is currently the only plug-in hybrid selling in significant volumes, having beaten in March the all-time sales record for PHEVs, with 810 registrations. Maybe because it is one of the few PHEVs that does not have a strong direct competitor on the BEV field? 

Outside the podium, the BMW delivered 784 i3's, being the nameplate best result since November 2016, while the Audi e-Tron jumped to the 5th spot, with 680 deliveries, a new personal best.

Looking at the 2019 ranking, we have a new leader, with the Tesla Model 3 benefiting from the deliveries tsunami to jump to the leadership, with the Californian already doubling registrations of the #2 VW e-Golf. 

I guess Tesla can already start to prepare the Best Seller party on new years eve, as both trophies (model and manufacturer) should go to Palo Alto, California.

Elsewhere, a new wave of BEVs are stealing the show, with several models hitting record numbers, like the Jaguar i-Pace registering 442 units, Kia Niro EV delivering 187 units, the Hyundai Kona EV (331 units), and finally the Audi e-Tron (680), that has jumped 9 spots to…#9. 

In the midst of the BEV takeover (10 BEVs among the Top 11), one of the few PHEVs to escape the doom and gloom of its category was the Volvo V60 PHEV, that joined the Top 20, at #18, thanks to 165 registrations, the nameplate best result since 2017.

Finally, the Tesla Model S rejoined the Top 20, in #16, profiting from the last-month-of-quarter peak, although at the same time last year, the Tesla flagship had delivered 814 units (676 in March)…

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is the new leader (30%), now being followed by the previous leaders Volkswagen and BMW (both with 11%), while Hyundai (9%) is leading a pack of brands (Nissan, Mitsubishi, Volvo…) that is trying to catch up the German makers.

If the 2019 title seems already attributed, in 2020 i guess only Volkswagen will have a shot at displacing Tesla from the lead, and assuming the ID hatchback production ramp up goes smoothly.

Hard times for Tesla's competition…

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

With the PEV share at 69%, the plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have 9 BEVs in the Top 10, with only 1 PHEV (Mitsu Outlander PHEV, in #3), in the Top 10, while the best selling HEV (Toyota Yaris Hybrid, 248 units) was only #12, with this being the first time the Top 10 was made only by pluggable vehicles.

For how long will the Mitsubishi resist the never-ending BEV wave?

Denmark March 2019

Tesla Model 3 and the Koreans

After a memorable 2018, where PEV sales almost tripled, sales continue going through the roof this year, with 4,289 units so far, placing the 2019 PEV share at 3%, not only a significant jump regarding the 2018 score (2%), but also well above the absolute record (2.3%), set in 2015.

Regarding last year, BEVs recovered significant ground, now being responsible for 47% of plugin sales, much better than the 32% won last year. 

This recent uptick in BEV sales is thanks to the addition of three new models, with the Tesla Model 3 jumping to 2nd place in the 2019 ranking, while being the Best Seller in March, whil the Hyundai Kona EV is #4, with 208 units, and the just-landed Kia Niro EV is now #6, with 119 deliveries.

Despite the Tesla Model 3 thundering arrival, the Kia Niro PHEV is still the leader in the YTD ranking, underlining the an interesting feature of this market, as 5 out of the Top 6 models come from Korea.

In the Manufacturers ranking, last year leader Kia continues to be the Best Selling brand (22%), with Tesla and Hyundai, both with 9% share, filling the remaining podium places.

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

Pl	Model	2019 sales
1	VW Passat	364
2	Tesla Model 3	306
3	Mercedes C-Class	270
4	BMW 3-Series	203
5	Volvo S/V60	200

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now being written, comparing the Model 3 with the competition, its 306 deliveries in March allowed it to beat every competitor in its category.

But looking at the total Q1 registrations, the Tesla Model 3 was 2nd, behind the VW Passat, in the future expect the Model 3 to jump ahead soon, although the new PHEV versions of the Volvo S/V60, VW Passat and BMW 3-Series could boost their sales and race the Californian for the leadership. 

France March 2019

Tesla Model 3 jumps to #2

The French PEV passenger car market registered 6,136 registrations in March, up 14% YoY, with a big portion of this growth coming from the Tesla Model 3, with 1,153 deliveries last month, the best result ever for a nameplate not called "Renault Zoe".

This result kept the 2019 PEV share at 2.6%, with BEVs alone having 1.9% share.

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the Renault Zoe sales dropped 32% last month, to 1,536 units (the Peugeot e-208 shadow is starting to be felt…), while this month main news came in 2nd place, with the Tesla Model 3 reaching 1,153 units, if those not familiar with this market might feel this is not a disruptive result, after all the Californian remained below the leader Zoe, this event in France is like the Audi e-Tron jumping straight into #2 on the US PEV market. 

Elsewhere, the usual silver medalist Nissan Leaf this time had to be contented with the last place of the podium, with 455 units, its best performance in the last 8 months, while the Kia Niro EV was #4, with 299 deliveries, a new personal best. 

Another interesting event was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV reaching the 5th spot, thanks to 258 deliveries, beating the current PHEV Best Seller (Volvo XC60 PHEV, 223 units).   

Pl	Model	Sales
1	Renault Zoe	1,536
2	Tesla Model 3	1,153
3	Nissan Leaf	455
4	Kia Niro EV	299
5	Mitsu. Outlander PHEV	258

In a market known for its stability, this time there were a number of changes in the top positions, with the Tesla Model 3 jumping to the runner-up spot, while the Kia Niro EV was up one position, to #5.

The PHEV race is warming up, as 42 units now separate the #4 Volvo XC60 PHEV, and the #6 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, two midsize SUVs. 

Interestingly, the 7 best selling PHEVs are either SUVs or Crossovers, while on the BEV side, 8 out of the Top 11 models are regular cars.

On the second half of the ranking, both Land Rover yachts SUVs hit record numbers, allowing the Range Rover Sport PHEV toclimb one spot, to #11.

Underlining Kia's good moment in France, the Niro PHEV registered 115 units, its best result in 15 months.

We welcome two new models on the Top 20, although only one of them, the Audi e-Tron, is a fresh face, while the other, the BMW 225xe Active Tourer, is a familiar name in this ranking. 

In the brands ranking, Renault (29%, down 3%), continues in the leading position, but has lost a significant share of the market, while Tesla (12%) jumped to the 2nd spot, dropping  Volvo (9%, down 1%) to #3, and kicking Nissan (8%) out of the podium. 

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

Pl	Model	2019 sales
1	Peugeot 508	2,839
2	Mercedes C-Class	2,118
3	Renault Talisman	1,782
4	Tesla Model 3	1,554
5	Mercedes E-Class	1,378

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home?

The answer is now being written, comparing the Model 3 French deliveries in its second month on the market, the 1,153 deliveries allowed it to beat every competitor in its category, with the #2 Renault Talisman ending the month with 1,020 units.

But looking at the total Q1 registrations, the Tesla Model 3 was only 4th, although a podium place in the next quarters will not only seem possible, but likely. 

Is the handsome Peugeot 508 having its throne in jeopardy?