Monday, August 20, 2018

Germany July 2018

Resultado de imagem para Taycan
 Porsche Taycan: Will it be as good as we imagine?

BMW and Porsche shine, Tesla sinks 

The German PEV passenger car market grew 31 in July, to 5,617 registrations, with BEVs growing faster (+39%) than PHEVs (28%). In 2018, all-electrics are reaching 1% share, while plug-in hybrids grew their share to 1%, making a total PEV share of 2%.

But the most interesting story on the fuels mix is the steady drop of diesel vehicle sales, with another 11% drop in July, with diesel now only representing 32% of the market..At this pace, Diesel sales could be tot in this market by 2022-23...

Looking at July Best Sellers, BMW had another win, this time thanks to the 225xe Active Tourer, that with 594 deliveries, scored its second record performance in a row. Who said family-friendly MPVs weren't hip anymore?

The Kia Soul EV and the Smart Fortwo ED returned to the Top 5, but the most surprising news of July regarded the first full deliveries month of the new Porsche Cayenne PHEV, that with 227 deliveries, it was #9 last month, becoming immediately the Best Selling Luxury PEV on the market, with the Second Best in the class being the Porsche Panamera PHEV, with 194 deliveries. These are all good signs for the upcoming Taycan BEV, so if i were Porsche, i would start right away thinking in ways to scale up the Taycan production, if they want to avoid a Herstellung Hölle...

BMW 225xe A. Tourer
Kia Soul EV
BMW i3
Smart Fortwo ED
Renault Zoe

Over the years, the German PEV market became known for its constant changes, but it seems July took a break from that, with few changes in the Top 20, the main news were both the BMW 225xe Active Tourer and VW Golf GTE jumping three positions, to #6 and #7, respectively, with the BMW MPV now becoming the Best Selling PHEV.

The other change happened in #15, with the Mercedes GLC350e surpassing the Tesla Model S

Speaking of Tesla, the Model S had its lowest result (51 deliveries) since January, which could mean that the Model 3 (Taycan too?) long shadow is starting to be felt on this market.

As for the #12 Porsche Panamera PHEV, the Sports Sedan had its best result in over a year, with 194 deliveries, which together with the positive landing of the new Cayenne PHEV (227 units), could mean that Porsche has finally solved the batteries constraint problem. (Well, it would have to do it sooner or later, as the Taycan will be a battery hungry beast…) 

Germany was always going be a tough market to crack for Tesla (A bit like the BMW i3 in the US - "Small luxury car?!?! Is that even a thing?!?!"), but the moment of truth is nearing, as German BEVs are getting closer to production, it will be interesting to see the impact they will make on the Model S and especially on the Model X sales. 

One can say that the Model S will the be most pressured, because besides the foreign competition, it will have to resist the vacum cleaner effect of its Model 3 smaller sibling. 

In July, the Model S deliveries (51) were down 50% YoY, while the Model X (44) was down 43%...Which says a lot, doesn't it?     

In the brands ranking, we have a new leader, with BMW (17%, up 1%) surpassing Volkswagen (16%, down 1%) while the #3 Smart (11%, down 1%) is watching the new Fourth Placed Kia (10%) getting closer. 


Friday, August 17, 2018

China July 2018

Resultado de imagem para BYD Yuan EV360

BYD Yuan EV #1 in July

The Chinese PEV market is in summer-chill mode, with some 75,000 units being registered in July, up only 64%, this slowdown from the three-digit growth rates of previous months is explained by the fact that New Energy subsidies were slashed to vehicles with range lower to 150 kms, in June, so most small City EVs stopped being sold, draining a significant percentage of sales. 

Consequently, the PEV share stayed away from the record 5% of May, ending July with 3.9% share in June, while the 2018 PEV share rose slightly, to 3% share, well above the 2.1% of 2017, and with sales expected to pick up as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share should end North of the 3%4% threshold, with December possibly reaching 7%.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented almost 50% of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that should increase during 2018.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near future, foreign brands are putting an effort, reaching 7% share. Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%. 

In July, the headlining news were the BYD Yuan EVbeing the monthly Best Seller, in only its second month on the market. Has BYD found its “BAIC EC-Series Killer”

Here’s July Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Resultado de imagem para White BYD Yuan EV360
#1 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, what few imagined was that it was going to become the #1 seller right in its second month on the market, with 4,174 deliveries, beating inclusively the BAIC EC-Series, that needed three months to reach #1. Are we witnessing the rise of the 2019 Best Selling model? I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in volume, than actual demand, sitting on the vortex of the two fastest selling segments (Compact Crossovers and EVs), with unrivalled specs (42kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup. 

Resultado de imagem para White BYD Qin
#2 – BYD Qin PHEV: With the second-generation Qin just a few weeks from landing, the first generation slowed down a bit, but still, with 4,068 units, BYD’s “Model 3” scored its 11th consecutive “3-4 thousand units/month”result (Talk about consistency!). Sales are still going strong for BYD’s sports-sedan, and should continue at the same level, until the arrival of the new one. As for the new generation, sales above 5,000/month should be the norm, becoming the (Second) Best Selling BYD.

Resultado de imagem para White JAC iEV7S
#3 – JAC iEV S/E: JAC was one of the EV pioneers in China, selling plug-ins since 2010, and now it’s back at the game, registering 3,853 units last month. With a competitive price of USD 26,000 before incentives, this is a vehicle targeted at trendy urbanites that for some reason can’t reach a BYD Song or Roewe’s eRX5, getting in return a good-looking compact vehicle (Kia Soul-sized), with just enough power and range (114 hp & 251 kms/156 mi) to not to make it look bad. Now, about that new BYD Yuan EV…

Resultado de imagem para White Roewe Ei6
#4 – Roewe Ei6: The automaker not so compact sedan, and a favorite among private buyers, this aspirational sedan registered 3,783 unitsin July, its second-best month ever, allowing for its first Top 5 presence. Banking on the model strongpoints, like its design and quality, that compensate some middle-of-the-road specs (9 kWh battery…) and aspirational price (202,000 CNY, or 20,000 Yuan more than the better specced BYD Qin). Now, about the fancy new BYD Qin II…

Resultado de imagem para White Chery eQ
#5 – Chery eQ: Chery was one of the Chinese brands to bet early in plug-ins, having won the models title three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), with its tiny QQ3 EV, now the automaker is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, the spiritual (and material) successor to the QQ3, having registered 3,665 units in July, allowing it to collect a Top 5 position last month. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22kWh battery providing just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle.    

Resultado de imagem para 2018 White BYD Tang
2018 BYD Tang

2018 ranking

There weren’t many changes on the top positions, in fact we have to go down to #9, to see a position change, with three models (BAIC EX-Series, Chery eQ and Geely Emgrand EV) all climbing one position, at the expense of the Zhidou D2 EV, currently crossing a sales drought, due to the removal of incentives. 

Another model hurting from the removal of incentives to short range BEVs is the tiny Baojun E100, down two positions to #15, to the profit of the #13 Roewe Ei5 and #14 Hawtai EV160.

Two other models climbed positions, with the Zotye E200 reaching #16 and the Tesla Model X, #18.  

The BYD Tang rejoined the Top 20, thanks to the new generation, that registered 3,551 units last month, the nameplate best result in 31 months, expect the midsize SUV to climb a few more positions in the coming months.

Finally, the BYD Yuan EV, despite being only in its second month on the market, it is already #22, on the 2018 ranking, and should join the Top 20 in August, the small Crossover is following the footsteps of the BAIC EC-Series, question is, will BYD be able to make the 10,000-plus units/month that BAIC has already proven to be capable of doing.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%) is now a comfortable leader, thanks to the Yuan EV, while the runner-up BAIC (14%, down 2%), is losing share due to the EC-Series sales drought, with the EX & EU-Series unable to fully compensate this drop. 

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (11%, down 1%) holds the last place of the podium, with a significant advantage over the new #4, Chery (6% share), and with BAIC now only 3% above it, the SAIC brand is now going after the Silver medal. 

Looking at the SAIC Group (Roewe + MG + Maxus + Baojun) as one entity, it is already Second Placed, with 14% of the Chinese plug-in market, so it won’t be surprising to see it running for the #1 OEM soon.

1BAIC EC-Series500404069
2BYD Qin PHEV4068270136
3BYD Song PHEV2408236095
4JAC iEV S/E3853214005
5BYD e53056196784
6SAIC Roewe Ei6 PHEV3783189734
7JMC E2002121160704
8SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV2242155863
9BAIC EX-Series3002152023
10Chery eQ3665151803
11Geely Emgrand EV2500137993
12Zhidou D2 EV343127803
13SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV2939127073
14Hawtai EV1603113125683
15SAIC Baojun E100602111272
16Zotye E200191992792
17BAIC EU-Series161891402
18Tesla Model X e)160078692
19Chery eQ1   72382
20BYD Tang PHEV (Gen. I & II)355168352