Friday, August 17, 2018

China July 2018

Resultado de imagem para BYD Yuan EV360

BYD Yuan EV #1 in July

The Chinese PEV market is in summer-chill mode, with some 75,000 units being registered in July, up only 64%, this slowdown from the three-digit growth rates of previous months is explained by the fact that New Energy subsidies were slashed to vehicles with range lower to 150 kms, in June, so most small City EVs stopped being sold, draining a significant percentage of sales. 

Consequently, the PEV share stayed away from the record 5% of May, ending July with 3.9% share in June, while the 2018 PEV share rose slightly, to 3% share, well above the 2.1% of 2017, and with sales expected to pick up as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share should end North of the 3%4% threshold, with December possibly reaching 7%.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented almost 50% of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that should increase during 2018.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near future, foreign brands are putting an effort, reaching 7% share. Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%. 

In July, the headlining news were the BYD Yuan EVbeing the monthly Best Seller, in only its second month on the market. Has BYD found its “BAIC EC-Series Killer”

Here’s July Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Resultado de imagem para White BYD Yuan EV360
#1 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, what few imagined was that it was going to become the #1 seller right in its second month on the market, with 4,174 deliveries, beating inclusively the BAIC EC-Series, that needed three months to reach #1. Are we witnessing the rise of the 2019 Best Selling model? I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in volume, than actual demand, sitting on the vortex of the two fastest selling segments (Compact Crossovers and EVs), with unrivalled specs (42kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup. 

Resultado de imagem para White BYD Qin
#2 – BYD Qin PHEV: With the second-generation Qin just a few weeks from landing, the first generation slowed down a bit, but still, with 4,068 units, BYD’s “Model 3” scored its 11th consecutive “3-4 thousand units/month”result (Talk about consistency!). Sales are still going strong for BYD’s sports-sedan, and should continue at the same level, until the arrival of the new one. As for the new generation, sales above 5,000/month should be the norm, becoming the (Second) Best Selling BYD.

Resultado de imagem para White JAC iEV7S
#3 – JAC iEV S/E: JAC was one of the EV pioneers in China, selling plug-ins since 2010, and now it’s back at the game, registering 3,853 units last month. With a competitive price of USD 26,000 before incentives, this is a vehicle targeted at trendy urbanites that for some reason can’t reach a BYD Song or Roewe’s eRX5, getting in return a good-looking compact vehicle (Kia Soul-sized), with just enough power and range (114 hp & 251 kms/156 mi) to not to make it look bad. Now, about that new BYD Yuan EV…

Resultado de imagem para White Roewe Ei6
#4 – Roewe Ei6: The automaker not so compact sedan, and a favorite among private buyers, this aspirational sedan registered 3,783 unitsin July, its second-best month ever, allowing for its first Top 5 presence. Banking on the model strongpoints, like its design and quality, that compensate some middle-of-the-road specs (9 kWh battery…) and aspirational price (202,000 CNY, or 20,000 Yuan more than the better specced BYD Qin). Now, about the fancy new BYD Qin II…

Resultado de imagem para White Chery eQ
#5 – Chery eQ: Chery was one of the Chinese brands to bet early in plug-ins, having won the models title three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), with its tiny QQ3 EV, now the automaker is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, the spiritual (and material) successor to the QQ3, having registered 3,665 units in July, allowing it to collect a Top 5 position last month. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22kWh battery providing just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle.    

Resultado de imagem para 2018 White BYD Tang
2018 BYD Tang

2018 ranking

There weren’t many changes on the top positions, in fact we have to go down to #9, to see a position change, with three models (BAIC EX-Series, Chery eQ and Geely Emgrand EV) all climbing one position, at the expense of the Zhidou D2 EV, currently crossing a sales drought, due to the removal of incentives. 

Another model hurting from the removal of incentives to short range BEVs is the tiny Baojun E100, down two positions to #15, to the profit of the #13 Roewe Ei5 and #14 Hawtai EV160.

Two other models climbed positions, with the Zotye E200 reaching #16 and the Tesla Model X, #18.  

The BYD Tang rejoined the Top 20, thanks to the new generation, that registered 3,551 units last month, the nameplate best result in 31 months, expect the midsize SUV to climb a few more positions in the coming months.

Finally, the BYD Yuan EV, despite being only in its second month on the market, it is already #22, on the 2018 ranking, and should join the Top 20 in August, the small Crossover is following the footsteps of the BAIC EC-Series, question is, will BYD be able to make the 10,000-plus units/month that BAIC has already proven to be capable of doing.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%) is now a comfortable leader, thanks to the Yuan EV, while the runner-up BAIC (14%, down 2%), is losing share due to the EC-Series sales drought, with the EX & EU-Series unable to fully compensate this drop. 

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (11%, down 1%) holds the last place of the podium, with a significant advantage over the new #4, Chery (6% share), and with BAIC now only 3% above it, the SAIC brand is now going after the Silver medal. 

Looking at the SAIC Group (Roewe + MG + Maxus + Baojun) as one entity, it is already Second Placed, with 14% of the Chinese plug-in market, so it won’t be surprising to see it running for the #1 OEM soon.

1BAIC EC-Series500404069
2BYD Qin PHEV4068270136
3BYD Song PHEV2408236095
4JAC iEV S/E3853214005
5BYD e53056196784
6SAIC Roewe Ei6 PHEV3783189734
7JMC E2002121160704
8SAIC Roewe eRX5 PHEV2242155863
9BAIC EX-Series3002152023
10Chery eQ3665151803
11Geely Emgrand EV2500137993
12Zhidou D2 EV343127803
13SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV2939127073
14Hawtai EV1603113125683
15SAIC Baojun E100602111272
16Zotye E200191992792
17BAIC EU-Series161891402
18Tesla Model X e)160078692
19Chery eQ1   72382
20BYD Tang PHEV (Gen. I & II)355168352

Thursday, August 16, 2018

World July 2018 - Mid Game Bet

1. Nissan Leaf - 49k

2. Tesla Model 3 - 41k

3. BAIC EC-Series - 40k

4. Toyota Prius PHEV - 29k

5. BYD Qin PHEV - 27k

Wednesday, August 15, 2018

USA July 2018

Resultado de imagem para Tesla Model 3 parking lots
Let the flood begin…

The Tesla Model 3 Flood

A record-shattering 29,000 plug-in units were registered last month in the USA, a 90% increase YoY, leading to a best ever PEV Share of 2.2%, with the 2018 count crossing over 151,000 units, and the 2018 PEV share climbing to over 1.5%, a new record. 

These results were mostly thanks to Tesla opening the dam on the Model 3 deliveries, that hit a record 14,250 units, the first time ANY plug-in hits a five digit monthly result in this market. 

Looking elsewhere, there wasn't much to talk about, with only three position changes in the Top 20, with the Chevy Volt surpassing its all-electric sibling Bolt, that was worryingly down 40% YoY. Are GM's BEV model sales being terminated by the Tesla Model 3?

If so, it isn't the only one, as the Nissan Leaf sales are down 10% YoY, despite a fresh new model, while the BMW i3 sales are down 23%, so there seems to be a Model 3 vacuum cleaner effect on sales of other BEV models on the market, making a sort of sales black hole, where fellow BEVs and midsize ICE cars get sucked into... 

Talking of the other changes, the BMW 530e climbed to #10, at the expense of its i3 sibling, while the Mercedes C350e joined the Top 20, in…#20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla (38%, up 3%) keeps gobbling up share (Will it reach 50% this year?), while Chevrolet (12%) hangs on to Second Place, with Toyota (11%) close to the GM brand, while BMW is holding steady in Fourth, with 9% share.

Source: Inside EVs

Tesla Model 3 & Others

Tesla Model 3 
Mercedes C-Class    
BMW 3-Series
Infiniti Q50
Audi A4

Looking at the midsize car category, the July record result catapulted the Tesla Model 3 for the YTD leadership, being the first time a plug-in becomes the yearly Best Seller in its overall category.

It was also the third time in a row that the Tesla sedan was the category Best Selling nameplate, which begs the question - "Will anyone be able to beat the Model 3?". 

Also important to realize, is the fact that, with the exception of the Audi A4, all other Model 3 competitors are witnessing YoY drops, reinforcing the idea that the Tesla nameplate is stealing sales from the class best sellers.

Another question is if the Model 3 can reach the top places in the mainstream midsize car class,  with the exceptional 14,250 deliveries of July, the Tesla midsizer was Fourth last month, behind the Toyota Camry (26,300), Honda Accord (24,900) and Nissan Altima (16,000), and YTD it jumped to #7, and could surpass in the coming months the #5 Kia Optima and #6 Hyundai Sonata.

But to go head to head against the Top 3, the Tesla Model 3 needs the SR version production to be in full swing, so let's wait for next year to see how high the BEV poster-child can go.