Friday, June 22, 2018

Portugal May 2018

Image result for Renault Zoe Portugal
Renault Zoe: An increasingly common sight in Lisbon

Nissan Leaf goes after #1 in (almost) Record Month

PEV Sales continue on the fast track in Portugal, with May close to register a new record month, with 738 deliveries (3.1% PEV share, up 163% YoY), keeping the 2018 Plug-in Share at a record 2.7%, so there's good reasons to be optimistic and even hope for a 3-4% share by year end.

Looking at the fuels mix, this market is known for its diesel-addiction, due to an unbalanced taxation between gasoline (heavily taxed) and diesel (not so much), but even here, these are historic times, with diesel sales down 9%, with May registering a meagre 51% share for the troubled fuel, while all others increased their sales. At this rate, i wouldn't be surprised if diesel sales would be dead in Portugal by 2024/25... 

Last month brilliant result had a strong tailwind from the Nissan Leaf, as the 220 deliveries became a new all-time monthly record for a single model, as the local delivers the long waiting list for the Japanese hatchback, said to be close to 900 units a few months ago.

With this surge in sales, the Leaf is closing in fast on the leader Renault Zoe, which incidentally, had its worst result of the past 6 months. Will we see the Nissan BEV overcome the French cousin next month?

Moving on, the BMW i3 jumped three positions, to Sixth, thanks to 44 sales, a new record for the German hot hatch, with the particular allure of all units being of the BEV variety.

One importer that seemed to have woken up to plug-ins is Volkswagen, with the Passat GTE delivering a record 30 units, leaping 7 positions to #11, while the Golf GTE also had a record result, with 30 deliveries, allowing it to joint the Top 20, in #18.

Still, Volkswagen only has 6% share in Portugal, far from the 14% it gathers in Europe, so there's a lot of space to grow...

...Speaking of manufacturers, in the respective ranking, BMW (23%) is on top, followed by Renault (18%), in Second Place, while Nissan (15%) is in the last place of the podium, closing in on its French cousin.

Thursday, June 21, 2018

Tesla Model 3 - July 2018

Image result for many Tesla Model 3

With Tesla said to wait for July to hit the 200k registrations mark in the US, one wonders how many Model 3 units Tesla had in stock transit in order to do so, while no one really knows the final numbers, if nothing else, because June hasn't ended yet, one thing is certain, the thousands stocked during June and late May will all be delivered in July, resulting in a historic flood of deliveries that month, but the question i would like to make is:

How many Model 3's will be delivered in July? 



Always an optimistic, i predicted some 35k deliveries...

Our reader Illia said 23k.

And how about you?

Australia December 2017

Image result for Tesla in Australia

Tesla Wins Australia

Yes, you have read it right, this is the full year count of Australia in 2017, with a six months delay, but given the size of the Australian automotive market, it is worthy of notice.

2.424 plug-ins were sold in 2017, up 77% YoY, beating the 2015 record (1,740 units), and placing the PEV Share at 0.2%, a significantly lower level than the neighboring New Zealand.

Looking at the models ranking, the three times Best Seller ('14-'16) Mitsu Outlander PHEV been displaced from the two top spots, leaving the road open for Tesla to make a 1-2 win, with the American brand doubling sales regarding 2016 and the Model X winning the 2017 Best Seller trophy, but failing to beat the all-time sales record, still in the hands of the Outlander PHEV (895 units, back in 1814 2014).

In the remaining Top 5 positions, the Mercedes C350e outsold the BMW i3, thanks to a personal best 212 deliveries.

In the manufacturers ranking, there was really no competition for Tesla, with 54% share, finally winning its first Manufacturers title, after two consecutive Silver medals, followed by the six times winner (2010, '11, '12, '14, '15, '16) Mitsubishi (15%), while BMW (12%) managed to secure the last place of the podium for the third time in a row, thanks to its extensive lineup, beating Mercedes (11%) in the race for the Third position.

Hat tip to Stuart, for the help getting the numbers

Wednesday, June 20, 2018

Norway May 2018

Resultado de imagem para 2018 Nissan Leaf Norway

King Leaf

After March's perfect storm of records, the PEV market in Norway slowed down, but still, with 5,515 units (+27% YoY) and 42% share last month, one cannot say that this market is in some kind of trouble.

Due to a less impressive performance last month, where Plug-ins just got 42% share, the fuels mix in May showed gasoline cars in the lead (26% of all sales, vs 28% in May '17), while BEVs were Second, with 22% share (+49% YoY), with PHEVs responsible for 20% of the total market, while on the other hand, diesel-powered cars scored a low 18% share (It was 26% twelve months ago), with the remainder (14%) going to regular HEVs.

At this pace, Diesel will be dead in Norway by 2020/21.

Looking at May Top Sellers, the new Nissan Leaf continues on top, but has saw the VW e-Golf (622 deliveries, best result in 7 months) get closer, nevertheless, the first signs of June are saying that the Leaf will present another big result, so expect the Japanese hatchback to win a fifth consecutive Monthly Best Seller award in June.

The remaining places went for the aforementioned BMW i3, closing the podium, while two PHEV SUVs made up for the rest of the Top 5, with the Mercedes model performing a new record result, with 363 units.

Looking at the YTD ranking, the most important news were the VW e-Golf climbing to Second Place, while the Tesla Model S also rose one position, to Fifth.

But the Climber of the Month was the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, jumping three places, to #6, while two other SUVs had their glory moment, with the aforementioned Mercedes GLC350e climbing to #9, and the BMW X5 PHEV joining the Top 20, in #17, thanks to 174 deliveries, the nameplate best performance ever since it landed, three years ago.

A mention for the Audi A3 e-Tron, registering 137 units, a new year best, which together with other positive performances in other markets, seems to indicate that Audi is pushing once again the production of its compact PHEV. 

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Nissan is in the lead (17%, down 1%), but is closely followed by BMW (15%, up 1%), Volkswagen (14%) and Volvo (13%), so the Japanese hatchback will need to continue to be on top of its game to remain with the Gold Medal.


Models breakdown by Fuel Source

With the PEV share close to 50%, the PEV market continues to merge with the mainstream market, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have a balanced mix, with 3 BEVs, 2 PHEVs, 4 HEVs and one ICE model, Toyota is pushing their hybrids, managing to put 4 models in this Top 10, and the Yaris in Third..

BEVs took the top two places, with the best selling Plug-in hybrid (Mercedes GLC350e) being only Fifth, and the Best Selling ICE (Skoda Octávia) model showing up only in #10

With regular ICE models (close to be) wiped out from the Top 10, will it be possible to for plug-ins to outsell HEVs and make it a 100% plug-in Top 10 in June? 

Tuesday, June 19, 2018

China May 2018 (Updated)

Related image

Beijing Auto goes into Warp Speed

The Chinese PEV market is at full charge, with some 95,000 units registered in May, up 128% YoY, and just 7,000 units less than the current record of 102,000 units, set last December. If sales continue progressing this fast, expect a new all-time record in June.

Consequently, the PEV share hit a record 5% PEV in May, pulling the 2018 share to 3%, well above the 2.1% of 2017, and with sales expected to pick up significantly as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share should end North of the 3% 4% threshold (Maybe 5%?), with December possibly reaching 7%.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented over 50% of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that is sure to increase during 2018.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near future, foreign brands are finally putting an effort, proof of that is that overseas makers now have a record 7% share. Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In May, it was a Titanic race between the resurgent BAIC and the leader BYD, with the EC-Series high above the competition.

Here’s May Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Image result for BJEV EC200 
#1 – BAIC EC-Series: The little EV is back at five-digit performances, with the EC-Series registering 12,624 units in May, tripling sales regarding the same month last year, which may mean that the 2017 Global Best Selling EV is not handing out its crown to the Tesla Model 3 without a fight. In fact, it should be the only model with a real chance to beat Tesla’s new baby in the 2018 race. The little EV continues to disrupt the Chinese market, reaching #37 in the mainstream ranking, and winning 8 of the last 9 Monthly Best-Selling trophies. A cute design helps the EC-Series to be a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities, also helped by a competitive price ($24,500, before subsidies).

Image result for byd qin phev 
#2 – BYD Qin PHEV: With the second-generation Qin just a few months from landing, the first generation had another surprisingly good performance in May, with 4,496 units (year best), being BYD’s “Model 3” 9th consecutive “3 to 4 thousand units/month” result (Talk about consistency!). Sales are still going strong for BYD’s sports-sedan, and should continue in the 4,000-something level, at least until the new one arrives. As for the new generation, sales above 5,000/month should become the norm, becoming the Best Selling BYD.

Image result for saic baojun e100
#3 – SAIC Baojun E100: Shanghai Auto and General Motors have high hopes for their tiny two-seater, and with the MY2018 version being ramped up, it is starting to make an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having registered 4,310 units last month, a year best. Will it reach the BAIC EC-Series numbers? I wouldn’t rule out that possibility, and even export prospects, as it could be marketed as GM’s Smart-like product outside China. Spec-wise, if power (39 hp) is not amazing, its price (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) is, especially considering its modern design and features.

Image result for zhidou d2 ev
#4 – Zhidou D2 EV: If the EC-Series can be considered “cute”, this bare-basics city vehicle design is as dull as a dishwasher. Nevertheless, they continue to be sold in large quantities (4,262 units in May, year best), due to a combination of bargain-basement prices and big fleet deals, aided by updated specs in 2018. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries, with the following specs: 18 kWh battery, 155 kms range, 100 kms max.speed, all this for some 16,000€.

Image result for bjev ex360 
#5 – BAIC EX-Series: BAIC’s electric compact Crossover landed two years ago, but somehow, it has been overshadowed since, by the remaining lineup, a strange event, considering that it sits on one of the hottest segments around. Nevertheless, its time has come and thanks to revised specs (48kWh battery, 318 kms/199 mi NEDC range) and pricing ($28,500, before subsidies) in 2018, Beijing Auto’s Ugly Duckling is finally spreading its wings, having registered a record 4,034 units. Will the automaker find here the lineup’s second-in-comand aide for the EC-Series?     

Image result for Roewe Ei5
Roewe Ei5: A future Best Seller?

2018 ranking

There weren’t many changes on the top positions, the most important was the BYD Qin PHEV switching places with its Song PHEV stablemate, with the sedan now in Second Place, while the tiny Zhidou D2 EV also took the time to climb one position, to Sixth Place.

But significant changes happened in the lower end of the table, with the BAIC EX-Series storming through to #15, thanks to a record 4,034 deliveries, a new record for the Crossover nameplate.

Speaking of records, there were plenty in this Top 20, six in total: Besides the aforementioned BAIC EX-Series, the #8 Roewe eRX5 PHEV also broke its personal best (3,030), just like the #9 JMC E200 (3,372), or the #20 Hawtai xEV260 (1,559). 

Finally, the Haima Aishang EV jumped three positions, to #16, thanks to a record 3,278 units, while the second newcomer on the Top 20, the #18 Roewe Ei5 EV, registered 2,996 units in only its third month on the market. Has SAIC struck gold with its standalone wagon?

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (18%, down 3%) is losing ground fast, having lost 6% share in the last 2 months, to the profit of the runner-up BAIC (17%, up 2%), that not only has its EC-Series sales champ in full charge, but it also now has the EX-Series helping decisively.

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (11%, up 1%) holds the last place of the podium, with a significant advantage over #4 JAC (6% share), but if we look at SAIC’s global result (Roewe+MG+Baojun+Maxus), the share adds up to 15%, confirming it as one of the Big Three Chinese OEMs in the plug-in market.

e) Estimate

Monday, June 18, 2018

Germany May 2018

Related image

Mercedes E350e Shines 

The German PEV passenger car market cooled off somewhat in May, by growing just 24% YoY, to 4,711 registrations, with PHEVs slowing down significantly (+6%), while BEVs continue growing on a healthy pace (+52%). In 2018, with all-electrics are reaching 1% share, while plug-in hybrids  are dropping their share to 0.9%, making a total PEV share of 1.9%.

But the most interesting story on the fuels mix is the Titanic-like drop of diesel vehicles sales, in May sales sank  27%(!), to the benefit of all other kinds of fuels, with diesel now only representing 31% of sales...At this pace, Diesel sales could be dead in this market by 2021...Inconceivable? Well, i thought 27% drops in diesel sales were also unthinkable, and yet…

Looking at May Best Sellers, the Renault Zoe won another Best Seller trophy, but the news of the month were the Mercedes E350e reaching Second Place, with a record 479 units (vs 62 units in May'17), putting that result into context, this number represented 13% of all Merc E-Class sales, which is the category Best Seller, and in May the E350e version outsold the total sales of the Mercedes CLS (343 units). It seems fleet buyers are ditching the classic Mercedes diesel buy, for a PHEV setup with a crappy electric range, now imagine how sales would be if it had a decent range...

Just outside the Top 5, we find the Audi A3 e-Tron, with 228 units, scoring its best performance this year, will this mean that the 2017 Best Seller has got its mojo back?

Renault Zoe
Mercedes E350e
VW e-Golf
BMW i3
Kia Soul EV

In a market known for its constant changes, May delivered plenty to talk about, with several plots and sub-plots, firstly the last month leader Smart Fortwo ED dropped two positions, to Third, to the benefit of the new leader VW e-Golf and runner-up Renault Zoe, both up one position.

But the changes in the front group didn't ended there, the BMW i3 surpassed the Kia Soul EV and is now the new Fourth Placed, but with only 372 units separating the 5 front-runners, there's still a lot to expect from this race until December, almost reminding the best races in Formula E

In the second group, where most models race for the PHEV trophy, big winner was the aforementioned Mercedes E350e, jumping four positions to #6, but with the VW GTE siblings not far off (Passat is just 13 units behing and the Golf, 43 units), it promises also to be an entertaining race to follow. Especially if the recovery-mode (Up 3 positions, to #15)Audi A3 e-Tron joins this group…

But the fun stuff hasn't ended yet, we should also mention that the Nissan Leaf and Kia Niro PHEV both climbed one position, to #12 and #13, respectively, while the Hyundai Ioniq Electric stepped up one position in the ranking, now being #19.

As for Tesla, the only fact worthy of mention were the 88 Model X deliveries, the nameplate best off-peak performance in a year, but far behind the category Best Sellers, like the Mercedes GLE (1,027 units), BMW X5 (731) or even the Volvo XC90 (566).

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (18%, down 1%) continues in the lead, but BMW (16%) is dangerously close, while the Third Placed Smart (12%, down 1%) is running from Mercedes (11%) and Kia (10%), as it tries to keep its podium place. 


Friday, June 15, 2018

Israel May 2018

Image result for Volvo XC60 PHEV Israel

Back from the Dead

After a looong absence, Israel is back at EVS, since then a lot has happened, the Better Place project went belly up, and with it the local plug-in market also disappeared (Down from a 0.4% peak in 2012), but in the meantime, regular HEVs surged and became mainstream, with the current leader in the general ranking being the Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid, while the Kia Niro is also a Top 10 presence, with Israel becoming a sort of HEV Holy Land, so are PHEVs also surfing the Hybrid wave?   

The response is a loud "YES!", despite BEVs being still a symbolic presence (Basically a couple of dozen Zoe), plug-in hybrids joined the current Hybrid Fever, mostly thanks to the European Premium brands, allowing the PEV market to reach an impressive 1.3% this year.

The current leader is the Volvo XC60 PHEV, followed by two other Midsize SUVs, the Mercedes GLC350e and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, while outside the podium, two other Mercedes make the Top 5.

Just below this Top 5, we find the BMW PHEVs and the Audi A3 e-Tron, all above the three digits.