Wednesday, June 9, 2021

France May 2021



 Zoe #1 in May, Model 3 #1 YTD


The French plugin market continues on the fast lane, with May's plugin share reaching 17% last month (8.2% BEV), pulling the YTD share to a record 15% (7.1% BEV), which is a good 4% increase over the 2020 result (11%), with the 20% share i predicted for the whole year looks well on target. 

Interestingly, most of the growth is coming from PHEVs, with plugin hybrids representing 53% of registrations in May, 1% above this year average and a significant jump over the 40% they had in 2020. Maybe it's time to cut subsidies on plugin hybrids?




For the first time this year, in May the Renault Zoe managed to win its domestic Best Seller trophy, thanks to 2,577 units, a new year best, so it looks the French maker has (finally) recovered from the late 2020 registration fever, and is back at its usual self, so expect the Zoe to collect a few more trophies during the next months...

...But not in June, because that one seems destined for the Tesla Model 3, that pulled out a surprising 2,111 registrations score last month, with the sports sedan now set to score a new personal best next month (5,000 units? 6,000?), thus beating the expected 3,000-3,500 June score of the Renault Zoe. 

These are bad news for the Peugeot 208 EV, 4th in May, with 1,199 units, because not only the Top 2 are in good shape, but also because its stablemate Peugeot 3008 PHEV (#3, 1,712 units), thanks to its recent facelift, the crossover is running in high voltage, scoring another near-record score, it means the small Pug should only have a chance at a podium seat in July, time when the Model 3 takes its usual vacances month off.

On the first half of the table, the biggest surprise is the appearance of SAIC's MG eHS PHEV in #7, with 590 deliveries, shattering its previous record, and making an impressive result for the Sino-British SUV, being also the highest standing ever for a SAIC model in France.

Another surprise on the first half of the table is the instant success of the #8 Hyundai Tucson PHEV, that scored 578 units right in its landing month, so expect the popular Korean SUV to continue riding the wave of success, maybe even scoring a few Top 5 positions soon. 

Elsewhere, a mention to the record score of the #19 Audi Q3 PHEV, with 359 units, while its less aspirational relative Volkswagen Tiguan PHEV was #20, with 338 units.

Below the Top 20, a mention to the 331 deliveries of the popular Ford Kuga PHEV, while the Skoda Enyaq had 234 units in only its second month on the market, and keeping with the VW Group compact SUV/Crossover topic, the new Cupra Terminator Formentor PHEV had a record 253 units score last month, so the sporty crossover could be another candidate for a Top 20 presence.




Looking at the 2021 ranking, the Peugeot 208 EV had a steep crash from the leadership, with the Tesla Model 3 (new #1), Peugeot 3008 PHEV (#2) and Renault Zoe (#3) all surpassing the Peugeot EV, in fact this is the first time this year that the Zoe is ahead of its arch rival...

But not all are roses in the Renault team, as the Renault Twingo (only 490 units last month) lost significant ground to its Stellantis rival, with the French EV hanging by a thread (or 13 of them, to be more accurate) to the 6th position, with the Fiat 500e looking set to climb one position next month and beat the local hero in the City car category.
 

The second half of the table had a number of changes, namely the Volvo XC40 PHEV climbing one position, to #12, which was the same number of positions that the Mini Cooper EV climbed, now in #15.

On the last positions of the table, the Renault Megane PHEV jumped two spots, to #18, while the Ford Kuga PHEV joines the table in #20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Peugeot (18%) and Renault (15%) are stable in the top positions, while Tesla (8% share, up 1%) closes the podium, ahead of the rising Mercedes (7%, up 1%) and Volkswagen (6%).




As for OEMs, Stellantis is the major force, with a commanding 30% share, with the Renault-Nissan Alliance far behind, with only 16%, while the best foreign OEM is the Volkswagen Group, with 13% share (up 2%), well ahead of Tesla, BMW Group and Daimler.

It is impressive that Tesla, with only one model, can sell as much as both German Premium OEMs, that have lengthy plugin lineups, isn't it?

Monday, May 31, 2021

Global Top 20 April 2021

 


Models: Wuling Mini EV #1 in April 


Registrations were up for an impressive 249% last month, to some 392,000 units, the 4th best month ever, with BEVs jumping 235%, to some 251,000 units, so we might be seeing the plugin market hit 5 million units this year

These impressive results this year kept the 2021 PEV share to 5.7% (3.7% BEV), which is already significantly above the 4% of last year, and expect it to continue growing throughout the year, to a large single digit number, as Disruption (eg, two digit market shares) on a global level is looking set to happen in the last months of this year, or 2022, the latest.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and on the following economic recovery, but whatever happens, expect plugins to increase significantly its PEV share on the way.




There are two new faces on the Top 5, with the VW ID.4 debuting in 4th, with 10,318 units, its first five-digit score, while its (slightly) older brother, the ID.3, makes its first appearance this year, in #5.

In the podium, besides the Wuling Mini EV return to the top position, after a win in January, there an important mark concerning both Teslas, as last month the Tesla Model Y managed to beat the Model 3 for the first time ever, something that i believe will become the norm in a not too distant future.

Just below this Top 5, we have the Li Xiang One showing up in #7, becoming April's Best Selling PHEV, ahead of two Volvos, the XC60 PHEV (5,005 units), and the Volvo XC40 PHEV (4,589), highlighting the good moment of the Swedish maker. 




On the YTD table, everything remained stable on the Top 5, but below it, balance is the word, with less than 4,000 units separating the #6 Nissan Leaf from the #20 Chevrolet Bolt.

But despite this balance, there weren't much position changes to the table, with the most important being the Li Xiang One jumping to 12th, overcoming the BMW 530e/Le, that had a slow month, with the Chinese startup model now joining the full size category podium, while being just 481 units from the runner-up Audi e-Tron, so we might see the Chinese EREV overcome the big Audi soon and have a 1-2 Chinese leadership in the full size category, as the category leader, the #4 BYD Han EV, seems unattainable.

Volkswagen had a great month, with the ID.4 joining the table in #13, thus making 15 BEVs in the Top 20, allowing the crossover to surpass for the first time its ID.3 relative, that despite this, had a positive month, with the German hatchback jumping 3 spots, to #13, with Volkswagen EV in recovery mode, the Nissan Leaf Best Seller status in the compact class is going to be tested soon, as both hatchbacks are now separated by less than 2,000 units.

Outside the Top 20, there are a few interesting developments, the most surprising of all being the rise to #22 of the Toyota Prius PHEV, that thanks to 4,715 units in April, its best score in over 3 years, allowed the Japanese hatchback to be just 1,500 units behind the #20 Chevrolet Bolt, and highlighting Toyota's good month, the RAV4 PHEV had its best score so far, with 3,996 units, so don't rule out Toyota from the 2021 Best Sellers table just yet...

Speaking of records, right now there are two models scoring consecutive record performances, with the BYD Qin Plus PHEV registering 3,603 units last month, it's 3rd record score in a row, while Hozon's Neta V had 3,846 units last month, it's second consecutive record, expect the BYD model to continue ramping up production (up to five-digits?), while one wonders if the startup Hozon has finally struck gold, with its small crossover.





Manufacturers: Volkswagen climbs to #3

In April, Tesla took the monthly trophy, it's third in a row, but the top three brands were close, with only 1,874 units separating the #1 Tesla from the #3 Volkswagen.

Speaking of Volkswagen, the German brand has surpassed BMW in April and joined the podium, in 3rd, thanks to the good performances of the ID.3 and ID.4.

By the look of things, do not expect BMW to hold on to the 4th position for long, as #5 BYD is recovering momentum and might already surpass it in May, leaving the Bavarian brand withing sight of the rising #6 Mercedes, that has won 3% share YoY, while in the same period, BMW dropped from 7% in April 2020, to the current 6%.

Peugeot joined the Top 10, while Kia also climbed one position, in this case to 12th, but with just 2,000 units separating the #10 Peugeot from the #13, anything can happen.

On the lower half of the table, #18 GAC had its best score in 16 months, thanks to the landing of the new Aion Y. 

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 6,062 registrations of Skoda, but the brands closer to join the table are the #21 Xpeng (18,436 units) and #22 Li Xiang (18,118).

By OEM, Tesla (14%, down 2%) is ahead, followed by SAIC (13%), with the Volkswagen Group (13%, up 1%) closing in on both. 

Thursday, May 27, 2021

Europe April 2021



1-2 win for Volkswagen


The European passenger plugin market continues on the rise, having registered over 159,000 units in April, and 616,000 units YTD (+136% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 15% share (7.1% BEV), keeping the 2021 PEV share to 15% (6.7% for BEVs alone).

Interestingly, if in April the overall market was up 23% YoY, something that would be expected, after all, 12 months ago markets were all being disrupted by the Covid pandemic, if we compare April '21 with April '19, the overall market was down 25%, which says a lot on the current electrification process.

Growth came from both plugin fields, with BEVs recovering slightly in the plugin share (46% of sales in April, vs 45% YTD), mostly thanks to the BEV push from the Volkswagen Group, allowing the namesake brand to celebrate a 1-2 win in April, a first for the German maker.

Last year winner Renault Zoe was only 5th last month, its lowest standing in over 3 years(!), so after the Nissan Leaf (Best Seller in 2018, 7th in 2020, 16th now) and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (3rd in 2019, 12th in 2020, now below the Top 20), the last bastion of success in the Renault-Nissan Alliance is also suffering, so the warning sirens must be ringing in the Renault & Nissan European HQ's...  


Looking at April Top 5 Models:


#Volkswagen ID.4 – Sitting in the vortex of the current hottest trends (Plugins and compact Crossovers/SUVs) much is expected from the new Volkswagen, especially considering that its ID.3 sibling hasn't yet set the market on fire...The ID.4 doesn't have much margin for failure, and so far it hasn't disappointed, after the 5,000 units of March, April saw it reach 7,565 registrations and win its first monthly Best Seller award, but one wonders at which point will it reach the cruise speed, and how high will it be, because the fiercest ID.4 competitor comes from the inside the VW Galaxy and it's not the ID.3...(more on that below), but back at last month performance, the German EV had 3 markets in the four digits, with Norway (1,824 units), Germany (1,446) and Sweden (1,444) all scoring 4-digit performances.

#2 Volkswagen ID.3 – After the end of 2020 registrations rush and subsequent hangover, the German hatchback is slowly returning to form, by having 5,941 deliveries last month, its best score in 2021, allowing it to return to the podium and provide a 1-2 win for Volkswagen. Regarding April, the ID.3 performance was heavily based in its home market, with Germany taking almost 40% (2,264 units) of registratrions, being followed from a far by the United Kingdom (815 units) and Sweden (469).

#3 Ford Kuga PHEV – After a few battery issues last year, the Ford compact crossover, known as Escape in the USA, is back in top form, having been last month best selling plugin hybrid, with 4,300 units, thus ending a 3 month winning streak from the Volvo XC40 PHEV. With Ford now launching the much antecipated Mustang Mach E in Europe, one wonders if the Kuga PHEV will suffer from internal competition in the coming months. In April, Germany was by far the best market for the Ford nameplate, with 1,196 deliveries, followed by the United Kingdom (612 units) and Denmark (630), with the popularity of the Kuga PHEV in the Nordic country being a true case study, as the crossover was already the Best Seller in the overall Danish market in more than one occasion. 

#4 Volvo XC40 PHEV - The smallest of Volvo's PHEV lineup continues its road to success, together with the popularity of the XC40 in the overall European market (compact SUVs/crossovers are all the rage now), with the Swedish carmaker selling their plugin hybrid versions as just another trimline in Europe, the XC40 PHEV has become a hot seller across Europe, and that is visible in the sales distribution, in April, the Belgian-built Volvo scored 4,118 registrations, with several markets scoring similar results, like in Germany (540 units), the United Kingdom (562), Italy (532), France (487) and Belgium (474). Without production constraints and experiencing strong demand, the compact Volvo remains the strongest candidate for the 2021 PHEV Best Seller title. 

#5 Renault Zoe – The 4,083 deliveries show that the French hatchback is yet to recover from the last year end peak effort, and one now wonders if demand will ever recover, and this is especially more worrying when we consider the context of doubling sales in the European BEV market. In any case, the main markets in April were the usual, with Germany (1,268 units) leading, followed by France (1,265), while Italy (721), was a distant 3rd




Looking at the remaining April table, one should highlight the Peugeot 208 EV ending less than 500 units behind its arch rival Renault Zoe, so the Pug could very well win soon the monthly sub-compact/B-segment Best Seller trophy, a first for the small Peugeot and also a mark in the rise of Stellantis as a major force in the market.

Still on the subject of Stellantis, the #6 Peugeot 3008 PHEV and the #10 Fiat 500e had their highest table standings this year last month, thus making 3 Stellantis models in the Top 10, a new record for the Conglomerate.

But looking at the Top 20, the OEM with the most number of models was the VW Group, with 5 models, all BEV, besides the aforementioned ID.3 & 4, the Audi e-Tron was 12th, the VW e-Up was 15th, and in #19 we have the Skoda Enyaq, that joined the table right in its first full sales month, and do not be surprised if the Czech-station-wagon-that-thinks-it's-an-SUV reached the Top 10 in May, as the Skoda EV is currently the most competitive MEB-based model one of the best EVs around, maybe even the best reasonably priced family EV in the market, with competitive pricing, space and practicality, without losing much in premium-ness to its VW counterparts...Actually, i believe the only thing stopping it from having even greater success is the badge itself, had it a more popular/"aspirational" badge and it could become the Best Selling EV in Europe.

Another OEM with a good month was Daimler, with 2 Mercedes and 1 Smart models in the table, with the popular GLC PHEV returning to a Top 10 position, while the Smart Fortwo EV continues to post solid results, despite its underwhelming specs.

Outside the Top 20, a mention to 4 BEVs in the vicinity of a Top 20 position, 2 from Stellantis, the Opel Corsa EV (2,272 units) and the crossover Peugeot 2008 EV (2,122), while the other 2 are from the BMW Group, with the Mini Cooper EV (2,283 units) ahead of the veteran BMW i3 (2,043).

Expect the Opel and Peugeot to reach Top 20 positions during the current months, something that the Mini should also achieve, as for the German EV...Come on, BMW put on a 55 kWh battery in it, the i3 deserves to end its career with a bang, and a new, bigger battery, would the the perfect excuse to do so, after all, its design continues fresh and it is still the best premium small EV around...And a future classic.



Looking at the 2021 ranking, the main news belonged to the ID family, with the Volkswagen ID.3 jumping two spots to the runner-up spot, while the ID.4 joined the table in #8, no doubt a temporary position, as VW's crossover should join the Top 5 in May, and from then on, a podium position shouldn't be that far away.

Now...will it be enough to displace the Model 3 from the leadership? I doubt it, with the Model Y production delayed, demand should remain strong throughout the next two quarters, and with 15,000 units separating it from the #2 ID.3, i just do not see how can either of the ID models reach within shooting range of the Tesla sports sedan. 

A different question is looking at sales by brand or OEM, as currently Tesla in Europe is a one trick pony fighting against brands/OEMs with increasingly longer lineups. But more on that later...

Elsewhere, the Climber of the Month was the Ford Kuga PHEV, that jumped 3 spots, to #9, with the Spanish-made crossover now ambitioning a Top 5 seat.

The Mercedes GLC300e/de also had a good month, climbing to 12th, surpassing the Volvo XC60 PHEV and becoming the new midsize SUV Best Seller.  

Still on the second half of the table, the Audi e-Tron climbed one position, to #18, but the big Audi is below last year performance levels, when it ended in 5th.

Just below the Top 20, we have the #21 Smart Fortwo EV, with 9,846 registrations, so we have three models (#14 VW e-Up; #20 Fiat 500e; #21 Smart Fortwo EV) separated by less than 2,000 units, somthing that should make the city car one of the most exciting races of the year.

Unlike the models ranking, where we already have a clear favorite, in the makers ranking, balance is the word, but Volkswagen (11%, up 1%), managed to earn an important edge over Mercedes and BMW, both with 10% share, with April possibly signaling the departure of the Wolsburg brand for a win in the manufacturer race.

Below these three we have the #4 Volvo, with 8%, while in 5th we have Peugeot (6%), now with a 1,000 units advantage over the #6 Renault (also 6% share), so it looks that in the race between the two French brands, the Lion is gaining momentum at the expense of its rival. 

Looking by Automotive Groups, the Volkswagen Group is far and wide ahead, with 23% share, ahead of Stellantis (14%), Daimler and BMW, both with 12% share.

Do not expect the VW Group to lose their commanding position in Europe anytime soon, as neither Stellantis (not enough firepower in the higher end of the market), nor Daimler or BMW (not enough firepower in the lower end of the market) are in position to challenge the VW galaxy.

As for Tesla, even if the Model Y becomes a resounding hit next year, and the refreshed Model S/X are also met with success, i do not see them go higher than 14%-15% share by 2022, which is significantly more than the current 5%, but even in this optimistic scenario, the VW Group would still have some 18% by the end of next year.



BEV D-Segment / Midsize category





Tesla's midsize sedan lives in another galaxy, having won a sizeable distance over the competition, highlighting the fact that it won't have significant competition in the next few months, as the Tesla Model Y is delayed and the just arrived Ford Mustang Mach E (123 units in April, no doubt demonstration units) and upcoming Hyundai Ioniq 5 have the small demand -limiting issue that both come from mainstream brands and in Europe, midsize models from mainstream makers simply do not sell as much as premium brands (In the overall Top 10 midsize Best Sellers table, only two models, VW Passat and Skoda Superb, do not come from premium brands).

So yes, they might beat the current #2 Mercedes EQC, but that won't be enough to even get close to Tesla's sports sedan. Then again, in the unlikely event that demand would be over the roof for those two models, both Ford and Hyundai wouldn't have enough production to meet such demand, so...

Speaking of the Mercedes EQC, the electric SUV (1,764 units last month) benefited from Tesla's usual off month (just 1,244 units) to win April's trophy, ending some 300 units ahead of the #2 Polestar 2.

Outside the podium, the expensive Jaguar i-Pace (617 units in April), continues to outsell the BMW iX3 (565 units) that seems stuck at 500-something performances (no wonder BMW is already refreshing it...).




BEV E/F-Segment / Full Size category





The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and the Audi SUV seems destined to win another category title this year, with Tesla basically giving up on the Model S & X for this year, what they will recover towards the end of the year shouldn't be enough to compensate for the current drought, while the #2 model, the Porsche Taycan (1,429 units last month) is too niche to go head to head with the e-Tron in the sales charts.

Regarding the remaining competition, the Audi e-Tron GT (303 units in April) has finally surpassed the Mercedes EQV Luxury Van, thus making a 1-2-3 lead for the VW Group.

But expect Mercedes to rebound in the second half of the year, with the new EQS, and especially in 2022, with the EQE, a model in which Mercedes has high expectations, namely by winning the category title, thus finishing the current Audi e-Tron domination.

Monday, May 24, 2021

China April 2021

 

10% share!

Plugins are a hot item in China, having scored over 175,000 units last month, jumping 173% regarding the same month last year, with BEVs in particular growing an amazing 204% rate. 

April was the second month in a row that the plugin share reached the two-digits mark, by hitting 10% (8.2% BEV), keeping the 2021 share at 10% (8.1% BEV), and considering that Q1 is usually China's weakest quarter, we can now safely assume that the local plugin market share will end North of the two-digits mark this year, and the total tally of the year will exceed 2 million deliveries!

After Europe, #EVDisruption is now reaching China... 

Looking at April's Best Sellers, the biggest news is the 4th spot of the Li Xiang One, with the full size SUV ending just 207 units the #3 BYD Han EV, something that would be a first for the startup maker.

Here’s April Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

  

#1 – Wuling HongGuang Mini EV

With 29,251 units last month, the tiny four seater continues on a roll, allowing it to keep the 3rd spot in the overall market, if the little Wuling continues to go at this pace, a half a million score by the end of the year seems not only feasible, but likely. The Wuling EV is becoming a disruptive force in urban mobility, a true EV for the masses, with the added bonus that the people buying it (mostly females, mostly under 35 year olds) are usually a hard to capture audience. This EV is becoming a game changer, but like in every success story, one wonders what will happen when others start to play in this field...

 

#2 – Tesla Model 3

The poster child for electric mobility had just 6,264 units last month, but fear not, considering that part of the MiC Model 3 production is now being exported to Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, we should start to see it behave in China like it does elsewhere, meaning poor starts of the quarter, so-so mid quarter months and then an end-of-quarter peak, replicating the behavior of the US-made Model 3. Something we will no doubt have the opportunity to check in the next couple of quarters...


#3 – BYD Han EV

The successful career of BYD’s luxury sedan in China has seem to hit cruise speed, by delivering 5,746 units in April, but it was still enough to earn it its first podium presence since last January. The current poster-boy for BYD is expected to continue going at 5-7,000 units/month in the foreseeable future, looking to keep the full size category leadership from the wheels of the...

#4 – Li Xiang One

...Big SUV from Li Xiang. A sort of Dark Horse among the whole Chinese EV  Startup buzz, the little talked about EREV has already delivered over 55,000 units in just 17 months, an amazing performance, especially when we consider that this is a huge 5-meter, 7-seater, full-size SUV. Using an original strategy when it comes to powertrain, being one of the few Extended Range Electric Vehicles on the market, it adds to the 41 kWh battery with fast-charging capabilities, a 1.2 liter gasoline engine that works as a range enxtender. With production (and demand?) now in cruise speed, one wonders when will this EV startup launch its 2nd album model, after all, their counterparts in the movement (NIO, Xpeng, etc) are already on their 2nd, or even 3rd, new model...


#5 – Tesla Model Y

Tesla's new baby had only 5,407 units last month, and while at first sight it looks like a disappointing result, this is mostly explained by the 2 week shut down in April, expect it to recover soon and maybe resume the records streak by June. Tesla’s midsize crossover future cruise speed in China is a question mark, while traditionally SUVs/Crossovers haven't sold as much as their sedan counterparts, the truth is that the market is leaning towards higher riding bodies, so the Model Y could surf the wave and outsell the Model 3 by some margin. 






Looking at the remaining Best Sellers table in April, a mention to the rise and rise of the #10 Hozon Neta V, a small crossover from Hozon that has delivered 3,846 units last month, the 2nd record performance in a row for the EV startup model, so we might be witnessing the build up of another star in the Chinese EV startup sky.

Another model with surging sales is the new BYD Qin Plus PHEV, 12th last month with a record 3,603 units, its third record score in a row, so it means that the new midsize BYD is still in production ramp up, with the Shenzhen maker hoping to replicate the Han success in the category below. 

The #18 SAIC Roewe RX5 PHEV had 2,499 units last month, the SUV's best score in 34 months, while the #15 BYD e2 hatchback hit a record score of 2,903 units. 

Local startups continue to shine, besides the aforementioned Hozon Neta V, in total we had 7 representatives from 6 different startups in the table, with the highest placed being the #4 Li Xiang One.

Below the Top 20, a reference to the landing of the GAC Aion Y, with a great 2,000 units score, so the compact MPV (Yeay! MPVs rule!), seems to have started off its career on the right foot, after one failure (Aion LX) and one meh! launch (Aion V), this is an important model for GAC, that has been solely living off the success of the Aion S for years and it desperatly needs more successful metal for the company to grow and avoid the one trick pony moniker.

On the VW Group galaxy, the VW ID.4, continues to (slowly) ramp up production, with the SUV having 1,644 units last month (922 from the ID.4X and 722 from the ID.4 Crozz variants), while their Chinese arm SOL (as in, rebadged JAC's) saw the small E10X hit a record score of 2,249 units





Looking at the 2021 ranking, the top positions all remained the same, with the Wuling Mini EV as the undisputed leader, with the runner-up Tesla Model 3 also comfortable, so unless something unexpected occurs, the top two positions are already taken for

Below it, the Tesla Model Y got a little bit closer from the #4 Great Wall Ora Black Cat, that had an off month in April, with Tesla's SUV set to surpass the small Cat in the next couple of months.

The first position change happened in #10, with SAIC's small Clever EV jumping three spots into the top half of the table, while in #12 we have the Hozon Neta V, that also jumped 3 positions, and we should see it climb even higher, given the current records streak that the small crossover is experiencing.

The BYD Han PHEV is also experiencing a success of its own, having climbed to #16 last month, while another EV startup model has joined the Top 20, with the small Leap Motor T03 jumping to #19, being the 7th EV startup model in this Top 20.  

Just outside the Top 20, we have two models on the rise, with the #21 Xpeng G3 just 70 units behind the #20 Ora White Cat, so the crossover might already join the table next month, while the BYD Qin Plus PHEV is some 800 units below the Top 20, and given its current production ramp up process, it wouldn't be that surprising if it joined the table already in May.

Looking at the makers ranking, the SGMW joint-venture (20%, down 1%) is in the leadership, while below it, Tesla (12%, down 2%) is just 2,000 units ahead of BYD (12%, up 1%), but expect the US maker to gain significant ground again, in June.

Below the podium, SAIC (7%) is 4th, followed by the #5 Great Wall (6%) and the #6 NIO (4%, down 1%).

Interestingly, the all-mighty Volkswagen Group, owner of 16% of the overall Chinese passenger car market, currently has only 5% of the plugin market, a number that pales next to the 27% share of the SAIC Group, or even the 12% that both BYD and Tesla have, so a lot needs to be done, if they still want to keep their grip on the market in the long term.




Thursday, May 20, 2021

Germany April 2021


1-2 win for Volkswagen 

The German plugin market scored over 50,000 units last month, with both technologies rising fast (+413% for BEVs and +380% YoY for PHEVs), with last month plugin share ending at 22% (10% BEV), in line with the yearly tally of 22% (10% BEV), so this market is firmly in The Disruption Zone.





Looking at last month Best Sellers, Volkswagen leads the way, with a 1-2 win, with the ID.4 e-Up and ID.3 taking the top spots, with the little e-Up earning its third win in a row, a surprising performance for the veteran model, that was supposed to have a limited shelf life, but due to an unexpected turn of events (the ID.3 is not selling as well as expected...), it is now VW's bread and butter in its home market. Now, if they only could sell them at a profit... 

In the 3rd spot we have a(nother) surprise, with the Mercedes GLC PHEV jumping to the 3rd spot, becoming last month's best selling PHEV, 300 units ahead of its stablemate Mercedes A250e and over 400 above the VW Golf PHEV. Is the Three-pointed-star SUV getting ready to run with the VW hatchback for the title of most popular plugin hybrid?

Below the podium, the 4th place went the Smart Fortwo EV, that despite its wrinkles, is still selling in large numbers, staying ahead of models like the Hyundai Kona EV (April's Best Selling foreigner) and the recent VW ID.4, that jumped last month to #6, thanks to (a still disappointing) 1,446 units.

Interestingly, on the Top 8 models, only two are PHEVs, which would lead to think that BEVs outsold plugin hybrids, but actually that wasn't the case, as PHEVs represented 53% of plugin registrations in April. Once again, the reason is the wider choice among PHEVs, while on the pure electric side, sales are more concentrated in a limited number of models.

On the second half of the table, a reference to the Opel Corsa EV jumping to #12, while its Stellantis platform partner, the Peugeot 208 EV, joined the table, in #20, thanks to a record 806 deliveries, a small feat for the French brand, that seems to benefit from the sales slowdown of the Renault Zoe.

But the highlight on the last places of the table was the Skoda Enyaq, landing straight into the 19th spot, with 845 deliveries, a promising sign for the Czech EV, that should reach the top half of the table in the months to come.

Outside this Top 20, a mention to another MEB-based model, with the Audi Q4 e-tron delivering its first 130 units, while still on the VW Group galaxy, the sporty crossover Cupra Formentor PHEV continues to ramp up production, with April signaling a record 443 registrations.

Oh, and a final note to the first Toyota BEV deliveries in Germany...No, it's not yet the bZ4X (why, oh why, didn't they made a simpler codename?), but the Proace Verso EV, a Toyota badge-engineered version of the Stellantis Group midsize van-with-windows, known elsewhere as Citroen e-Spacetourer, Peugeot e-Traveller or Opel Zafira Life EV...Well, "they had to start somewhere, so they started...there" .

Let's hope these are the first of many, and Toyota doesn't take forever to create a full line up of EVs, and not just what they can buy from Stellantis. (Toyota buying technology from Stellantis...Makes you wonder, doesn't it?) 
  




Regarding the 2021 table, the small VW e-Up gained significant ground over the competition, so the little EV is currently the favorite for the Best Seller ceptre (assuming VW doesn't limit production...), while behind it, the VW ID.3, Hyundai Kona EV and VW Golf PHEV all benefited from the off month of the Tesla Model 3 and climbed a position each, which they will likely lose again in the next couple of months.

Another model on the rise was the Smart Fortwo EV, climbing to 6th, at the expense of the VW Passat PHEV down to 7th.

On the second half of the table, there's more to talk about, BMW had a good month, with the midsize 3-Series PHEV and the small i3 both going up one spot, to #11 and #13, respectively. 

But the Climber of the Month was the Mercedes A250e, jumping 4 positions to #12, and the compact Mercedes might reach a Top 10 position soon.

The Opel Corsa EV is back again at the table, now in #17, and the BEV team should increase in the next couple of months, as the VW ID.4 and the Peugeot 208 EV are less than 300 units from the #20 Skoda Octavia PHEV.  

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (18%) is clearly leading its home market, followed by Mercedes (10%, down 1%) and BMW (9%), while #4 Audi (7%) is not too far away.

Further behind, Hyundai and Renault, both with 5% share, seem unable to threaten the grip that the local heroes have on the German plugin market. 

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

Netherlands April 2021



Skoda Enyaq lands in hot market (21% share!)

The Dutch PEV market continues on the fast lane, with 5,090 plugin registrations, placing last month PEV Share at 21% (10% BEV), pushing the year to date PEV share to 17% (6.6% BEV), which is still down on last year result (25%), but already above with the 2019 score (15%), and expect this year result to continue growing throughout the year, as term of comparison, in April 2020, the YTD share was at 12%, which could mean that if witness this year another strong end of year peak, we should see the plugin share end North of the 30%...Not bad, eh?

Breaking down registrations between each plugin powertrain, BEVs continue to recover ground, having 47% of April's registrations, and YTD, they are now responsible for 40% of plugin sales, a 3% recovery regarding March, but they are still far from the 82% share of 2020, expect pure electrics to continue recovering ground throughout the year, but one thing looks certain, with BEVs gradually losing their fiscal incentives year after year, plugin hybrids are recovering their space in the market, highlighting just how sensitive to incentives the plugin market still is.

In April, the leader was the Kia Niro EV, scoring its first win since last July, this time with 359 units, but the true sensation of the month was the Skoda Enyaq landing with a bang, with its first 353 registrations in the Netherlands, allowing it to climb immediately to the runner-up spot in April, just 6 units behind the Korean crossover, while on the overall ranking, the Czech station-wagon-in-desguise was 11th. Not bad for a landing month...

The truth is that the new Skoda model so far seems like the most competitive MEB-based EV (sorry, ID.3 and ID.4...), with competitive pricing, more space and practicality than its VW relatives, it's no surprise that there rumours saying that Skoda is looking to increase the 70,000 production mark for 2021, in order to cope with demand.

"The Force is strong with you, young Enyaq" - Said Master Yoda...

Just outside the podium, in 4th place we have the Ford Kuga PHEV in peak form (304 units, new record), while for once Mitsubishi had reasons to celebrate, with the new Eclipse Cross PHEV showing up in #9, in its first full sales month, while the veteran Outlander PHEV was #13.

Interestingly, and a sign of where the market is heading, all Top 9 Best Sellers are either crossovers or SUVs, with the best positioned "car" (Peugeot 208 EV) only showing up in #10.

And looking below, there are only three other "cars" in this Top 20, the #13 Volvo S/V60 PHEV, the #17 Polestar 2 and the #20 BMW i3, thus making 4 cars vs 16 crossover / SUVs.

Now, let that sink in...

Speaking of the second half of the table, we had a few surprises there, like the #19 spot of the Mercedes EQA, in only its second month on the market, while the BMW i3 came back from a long absence, into #20, which could mean that we might see an interesting duel between these two compact EVs. 

Outside the Top 20, April witnessed the arrival of two very different models, with Ford celebrating the landing of its much antecipated Mustang Mach-E (58 units), while after many months (years) of promises, we finally witness the landing in Europe of Geely's post-modern (ahem * hipster * ahem...) brand, Lynk & Co, with the first 66 registrations of its plugin hybrid SUV, the 01




Looking at the 2021 ranking, if the leader Volvo XC40 PHEV remains untouchable, for now at least, below it there is much to talk about, with the Kia Niro EV benefiting from a strong April to jump 7 spots, into the 2nd place, reafirming its podium pretensions, while the Ford Kuga PHEV climbed to 3rd, and the Volvo XC40 EV was up 5 spots, to #6, and with the #2 Kia Niro EV just 207 units ahead, we might even see a 1-2 lead from Volvo here...

And don't forget the #8 Tesla Model 3 peak performances, so we still have several candidates to the top positions, and once again, only one of them (Tesla Model 3) is not a crossover or SUV, which speaks volumes of the current market trends, and of course, of the tremendous potential that the Tesla Model Y has in Europe. 

On the second half of the table, a mention to the Skoda Enyaq joining the table in #14 right in its landing month, so the Czech EV seems destined to higher grounds (Top 5?), while the BMW iX3 was also on the rise, having climbed to #16, up two spots from its previous standing, in March.

Another BEV set to join the table soon is the #21 Peugeot 208 EV (271 units), although it might be at the expense of its French arch rival, the #20 Renault Zoe...     

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo (16%, down 1%) is the Number One brand, with BMW (14%) in the runner-up position, while a distant Volkswagen (6%, up 1%) closes the podium, ahead of Kia (5%, up 1%).