Thursday, May 23, 2019

China April 2019

VW Passat and Geely Emgrand shine in a cooling month 

Resultado de imagem para VW Passat PHEV China
Chinese VW Passat GTE PHEV
After a first quarter with surging sales, April saw the Chinese plugin market cool down a little, to some 100,000 registrations, up only 34% YoY, but because the mainstream market is still in the red, the April PEV share reached an amazing 6.2%, pulling the PEV market share to 5.4%, frankly above the 2018 result (4.2%).

At this pace, this market could reach some 7% share by the end of this year, and cross the 10% share in 2020. And that’s when things start to get interesting…

With Chinese brands still tiptoeing on EV exports, with only some token units being sent to Southeast Asia, Europe and Latin America, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, while (some) foreign OEMs are starting to profit from the introduction of their existing/dedicated PEVs in China, but despite this investment, foreign brands total share is still stuck at 8% of the market.

Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Volkswagen, 2% to Tesla, while the remaining manufacturers share the rest. 

In April, the headlining news were the Geely Emgrand EV reaching #2, with a record 5,225 units, while the BYD Yuan returned to the highest place in the podium, with 6,428 deliveries.

Here’s April Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Resultado de imagem para byd yuan ev 500
#1 – BYD Yuan EV: The company Baby Crossovercontinues on the road for success, and with a new 58 kWh version now being delivered, the small Crossover continues to be delivered at a fast pace, with 6,428 units being delivered in April. With a thousands-long waiting list, demand is no problem, depending more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in large volumes (The Tang is more profitable…), than anything else. With unrivalled specs (58 kWh battery, 410 kms/255 mi NEDC range, 163 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), this is shaping up to be this year strongest candidate for the Best Seller title.

#2 – Geely Emgrand EV: The bread and butterelectric sedan had its best month ever in April, with 5,225 units, a good sign for all the new models coming from the ambitious Geely Group stable, like the recently landed Geometry A sedan. The best-selling Chinese brand (and Volvo owner) is milking this model strongpoints, like its quality and technology, to compensate a middle-of-the-road design and price (CNY 218,300 / $31,834)

 Resultado de imagem para baic eu-series
#3 – BAIC EU-Series:After the record 12,983 units of March, allowing it to be that month Best Seller, BAIC’s electric sedan had the expected drop, with 4,738units being delivered last month, which was still enough to beat its BYD e5 nemesis. The revised design and improved specs (215 hp, 416 kms / 260 mi NEDC, US $32,500) allows it to remain a popular choice, so the sedan seems to be Beijing Auto’s main bet for 2019.

 BYD e5
#4 – BYD e5: BYD’s utilitarian electric sedan, a favorite among taxi-drivers, registered 4,602 units in April, resulting in another consistent result for the oak treeof the BYD lineup, that thanks to competitive specs (61 kWh, 405 kms / 253 mi range NEDC, 218 hp), considering the price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600). With a new, attractive design (finally!), the nameplate is continuing its brilliant work as the piano-carrierof an All-Stars-rich BYD lineup. 
 Resultado de imagem para 2019 Chery eQ
#5 – Chery eQ: One of the pioneering EV brands, Chery had won China’s Best Selling EV title three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), and the automaker regained relevance with the small eQ EV, having registered 4,129 units last month, a new year best, allowing it to collect another Top 5 position. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22.3kWh battery providing just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle (And the subsidies requirements).

Resultado de imagem para xpeng g3
Xpeng G3: The next startup EV to reach the Top 20?

2019 ranking

The market is dynamic as ever, with plenty of changes and record results, the most important position change was the BYD e5 switching places with its Tang PHEV sibling, with the sedan now in the 3rdspot, making it a 100% BEV podium.

Both the #6 Chery eQ and the #7 Roewe Ei5 EV (4,003 deliveries, best result in 10 months), climbed one position in the ranking, due to a slow selling month of the Baojun E100, while the JAC iEV E-Series was up one spot, to #10, thanks to a year best 3,002 deliveries.

But the climber of the month was the VW Passat GTE, that jumped 6 positions, to #11, thanks to a record 3,767 units.

The other foreigner in the ranking, the Tesla Model 3, was also up, to #15, and should climb a few positions more in the coming months, maybe up until #12. It seems the race for best selling foreigner nameplate will be interesting to follow…

The Nio ES8 is back at the Top 20, in #19, keeping the best-selling full-size nameplate lead, although the Chinese SUV could have some competition soon, as the BMW 530Le scored 2,615 deliveries last month, being already #23, only 316 units behind the Nio. Interestingly, we have 2 models coming from Chinese startups in the last places of the ranking, and with XPeng accelerating the output of its G3 EV (2,200 units last month), we could have 3 Chinese startup models in the ranking soon.

Another entry in the ranking is the Roewe Ei6 PHEV, with the SAIC model returning here, at #16, thanks to 2,819 units, a new year best.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (23%, down 1%) is leading, thanks to the success of the Yuan and e5, while below it, SAIC (9%, up 1%) is ahead on the 2ndspot race, closely followed of BAIC (8%), and Geely (7%, up 1%). 

1BYD Yuan EV6428308748
2BAIC EU-Series4738240817
3BYD e54602191295
4BYD Tang PHEV3833187205
5Geely Emgrand EV5225159024
6Chery eQ4129134994
7SAIC Roewe Ei5 EV4003125903
8SAIC Baojun E1001488117723
9Great Wall Ora R1 EV3505109933
10JAC iEV E-Series300296153
11VW Passat GTE376788462
12JMC E20051077942
13BYD Qin PHEV116476842
14Great Wall Ora iQ5 EV110976172
15Tesla Model 3 e)300067382
16SAIC Roewe Ei6 PHEV281964092
17Changan Eado EV64760542
18Geely Emgrand GSE EV17755372
19Nio ES8150853211
20Weltmeister EX5 EV137753031

Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Russia April 2019 (Draft)

Resultado de imagem para Jaguar i-Pace in russia

Porsche and Jaguar Land Rover take over in growing market

The Russian PEV Market started the year smashing records, with 331 units so far this year, sales are up three-fold, and even the PEV Share started to move the needle... to 0.1%. But hey, you've got to start somewhere, right? 

Much of this has to do with local entrepreneurs doing the heavylifting, so a big thumbs up to them, as they are decisive in sparking dormant EV markets

Until last year, Tesla had been leaving the rest of the (few) EV competitors behind and earning the local trophies, but in 2018 things changed, with the Cayenne PHEV winning the Best Seller trophy, while closer to the end of the year, Land Rover landing their PHEV models, while the Jaguar i-Pace delivered its first units in December, so the picture today looks quite different from what we used to see here, with no Tesla in the podium, something unheard of since 2014, while the German Sports SUV continues in front, but this time both Range Rover models are relatively close to the leader, so there might be some changes until the year end.

Looking outside the podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is #4, beating both Tesla models and being the Best Selling BEV this year. 

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, this is a definetely a PHEV-friendly market, with 78% of plugins being plugin hybrid and only 22% BEV.

Porsche Cayenne PHEV
LR Range Rover Sport PHEV
3LR Range Rover PHEV146419N/A
4Jaguar i-Pace1049157

Disclosure: There are estimates on the numbers, so do not take these numbers as carved in stone.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Ireland - April 2019

Resultado de imagem para Kona EV ireland

Hyundai takes over in red hot market

The Irish PEV market is known for its love for the Nissan Leaf, a seven times (2011/12/14/15/16/17/18) winner of the Best Seller trophy, but it seems in 2019 the Nissan crown is in danger, with the Hyundai Kona EV leading the pack since the year started, with both models now separated by 44 units. 

This is happening against the backdrop of a hot market, with sales jumping 216%(!) this year, to 2.460 units, leading to a PEV share of 3,4% (4,4% in April), more than doubling the 2018 result.

If the top 2 models are in a race of their own, preparing to shatter the all-time yearly record around summertime, the Kia Niro PHEV, the current Best Selling PHEV, is in the 3rd spot, with 174 units, running ahead of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (122 unis), Renault Zoe (115), BMW i3 (107) and the heavyweight Range Rover Sport PHEV (106).

Below the top spots, a reference for the VW e-Golf, that registered 30 units in April, winning April's Bronze Medal and allowing it to jump to #8, while the Tesla Model S had a strong start of Q2, with 9 deliveries, allowing it to reach #13, and the recently landed Audi e-Tron joined the ranking, in #20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Hyundai (30%) is also leading, ahead of the previous ruler Nissan, now with only 25% share, while BMW is 3rd (8%), with Kia (7%) not far off.

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Global Top 5 - Mid Game bet - April 2019

1. Tesla Model 3 - 70k

2. BYD Yuan EV - 31k

3. Nissan Leaf - 26k

4. BAIC EU-Series - 24k

5. BYD e5 - 19k

On the manufacturers ranking, BYD (93k) is still ahead of Tesla (87k), but the gap is getting smaller.

Friday, May 17, 2019

Germany April 2019

Resultado de imagem para Mercedes E300de

Porsche, Mercedes and Smart shine

The German PEV passenger car market continues on the right track in April, having registered 7,771 units, with BEVs growing at a faster pace (+50% YoY), than PHEVs (+14%), contributing to an all-electric share in 2019 of 67%, far above the 2018 result (53%). 

With the mainstream market stagnated (-3%), the PEV Share was at
2.5% in April, with BEVs alone hitting 1.5%, leading to a YTD plugin share of 2.5% (1.5% BEV).

Looking at April Best Sellers, the Renault Zoe managed to outsell the Tesla Model 3, that remained in chill mode throughout the month, after a Ludicrous March, the American sedan had to be contented with the 4th spot, losing out to the aforementioned Renault model, as well as the #2 BMW i3 hot hatch and the evergreen #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. 

But the surprise of the month came in #9, with the Porsche Panamera PHEV scoring 291 units, a new record for the Porsche nameplate, after the WLTP hiccup, it seems the German Sports Sedan is back on top of its form, something that provides good signs for the career of upcoming Porsche Taycan.

Renault Zoe
BMW i3
 Mit. Outlander PHEV
Tesla Model 3
 VW e-Golf

The German PEV market is known for close races and constant changes, and last month was no exception, first of all, the Tesla Model 3 is still the leader, but the Renault Zoe is just 43 units behind, so it will be an interesting race to follow in the coming months. 

Also, the BMW 225xe A. Tourer and Hyundai Kona EV were up one spot, to #6 and #7, respectively, while another BMW, the 530e (329 registrations, year best), also won one position, now in #10.

The Daimler Group had a positive month, with the Mercedes E300e/de PHEV jumping to #14, thanks to 284 deliveries, the taxi model best result in 15 months, while both Smart models climbed in the ranking, with the Fortwo EV climbing one place, to #8, thanks to 428 deliveries, while its (slightly) bigger brother Forfour EV  jumped three spots, to #12, thanks to 280 registrations, both scoring Year Best performances in April.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the record 85 deliveries of the Jaguar i-Pace, with the British Sports-Crossover-SUV-Thingy, now in #22, just 24 units from knocking on heaven's door the Top 20.

In the brands ranking, BMW (18%, up 1%) is the leader, with Tesla in the rear view mirror, with 14% share (down 2%), ahead of the #3 Renault (11%, down 1%).

Outside the podium, we have Hyundai and Mitsubishi, both with 7% share.

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

 Mercedes C-Class
Audi A4
BMW 3-Series
Audi A5
BMW 4-Series
Tesla Model 3

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home.

The answer is now being written, comparing the Model 3 full year deliveries against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that the local heroes are still significantly ahead, with only the BMW 4-Series close to be surpassed.

Nevertheless, in a backdrop of falling sales (midzise cars are down 11% YoY), the Tesla nameplate performance is impressive, considering that the car has given a couple of months of advance to the competition in the beggining of the year.

Also interesting to see, not all models are being affected in the same way by the arrival of the Model 3 and the overall category falling sales, while the Audi A4/A5 and BMW 4-Series are experiencing two digit drops, the Mercedes C-Class sales are flat, with the Merc model surpassing the Audi A4 and becoming the class best Seller. 

This confirms what we have seen in other markets, with Mercedes resisting well to the Model 3 landing, while BMW and Audi have been suffering.