Tuesday, January 22, 2019

China December 2018

Resultado de imagem para 2018 baic eu series

8% PEV Share!

After a 3 months streak of record-breaking months, plugins in December just kept on pushing forward, by registering over 180,000 units, making it the 4th record month in a row(!), growing 70% YoY, with the 2018 sales ending north of the 1 million units mark. In one year. And to think that 2017 was the first year that plugins reached 1 million sales, GLOBALLY. Woah.

With all this continued growth, and the recent decline of the mainstream market (-16% in December), the PEV share hit yet another all-time best, ending the month with 8% share, while the 2018 share ended at a record 4.2% share, double the share of 2017 (2.1%), with sales expected to continue growing fast throughout 2019, in a year we should be talking about 8% in 2019, and some 15% in December…Amazing isn’t it?

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, and most foreign OEMs only now are starting to tackle the current seismic changes, dragged into electrification by the upcoming PEV quotas, resulting in the foreign brands total share still being stuck at 6%.

Of this (small) cake, 2% belong to BMW, the Best-Selling foreign brand, 1% to Tesla and 1% to Nissan, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In December, the headlining news was the BAIC EU-Series becoming the Best Seller of the Month, with an amazing 12,561 units, being only the second model to surpass 10,000 units in one month in China, after its smaller sibling EC-Series having opened the gates last year.

Here’s November Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Resultado de imagem para BAIC EU SERIES 

#1 – BAIC EU-Series: Beijing Auto’s electric sedan has been evolving throughout the years and now, thanks to a modern design and some solid specs (215 hp; 420 kms / 260 mi NEDC range; $32,500), it is finally making an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having registered a record 12,561 units last month, almost as much as it sold during the whole 2017 year. It seems BAIC found a second Best Seller in its stable, question is how it will deal with it, will it give priority to the most expensive and profitable EU-Series over the EC-Series?

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#2 – BAIC EC-Series: After the record 20,648 units of October, BAIC’s small EV returned has been dropping the number of registrations, with only 8,407 units being registered in the last month of the year, losing the #1 position in December to its sedan sibling EU-Series. Considering the EC-Series still has a waiting list, it seems the maker is prioritizing the sedan production over its smaller EV. The revised design and improved specs (new 30 kWh battery) will allow the EC-Series to remain a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities, also helped by a competitive price ($25,000, before subsidies).

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#3 – BYD e5: BYD’s bread and butter electric sedan, continues to profit from the recent redesign, having registered a record 8,234 units in December, thanks to an attractive design (finally!) and strong specs (61 kWh, 405 kms / 252 mi range NEDC), for a competitive price (USD 32,500). Expect this model to continue shining in 2019, now that the Qin has become a more upscale model, leaving more space between both.

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#4 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, and with a record 8,021 deliveries in December, BYD’s new baby is living up to expectations. Will the Yuan be the fiercest competitor in 2019 to the all-conquering BAIC EC-Series? With a thousands-long waiting list, demand is no problem, I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in large volumes (The Tang/Song/Qin are more profitable…), than actual demand, sitting on a sparsely populated part of the market (small BEV crossovers), and with unrivalled specs (42 kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found in this new model its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup.

Resultado de imagem para 2019 BAIC ex5

#5 – BAIC EX-Series: The third musketeer of BAIC’s latest generation of star players, the EX-Series Crossover registered a record 6,844 registrations in December. Sales should continue strong for BAIC’s model, possibly becoming the third model in the brand lineup to cross the 10,000 units/month mark. As for the EX Series specs, the battery has 62 kWh, originating an interesting 415 kms (259 mi) NEDC range, while on the power department, there’s a decent 215 hp to pull it, all for $41,000.

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2018 ranking

If the 2018 winner wasn’t surprising, with the BAIC EC-Series winning its Second Models trophy with months in advance, below it there were plenty of models shakin’n shining, the biggest of all being the BAIC EU-Series shooting seven spots to…#7, thanks to the aforementioned 12,561 units, with another hot model joining the Top 10 in the last month of the year, as the BYD Yuan EV jumped two positions, to #9, making 5(!) BYD’s in the Top 10. Talk about a strong lineup…

Below the Top 10, there were also some significant changes in the ranking, with the BAIC EX-Series climbing to #11, while the SAIC Baojun E100 was up one spot, to #16, and the Dongfeng Junfeng Skio reached #18, thus jumping two positions.

In such a fast-growing market, it has become the norm that models break their all-time highs all the time, as of this Top 20 ranking, 8 have beaten their personal best last month, 5 of them either belonging to BYD or BAIC.   

Outside the Top 20, there’s much to talk about, the BMW 530e ended the year as the Best-Selling Foreign model, with 13,493 units, while ending the year also as the Best Seller in the Premium Class.

But in December the BMW model lost the month Premium Best Seller was the Nio ES8, that thanks to 3,318 deliveries (11,348 in 2018), it has beaten all the foreign competition.

Will Nio be able to do the same during 2019?

With the new ES6 midsize SUV said to start deliveries by mid-2019, the Chinese startup is making the best use of the short time it has to grow and win scale, so let’s wait and see.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (20%) was a comfortable winner, winning its 5th title in a row, while the runner-up BAIC (15%), is finally profiting from a stronger lineup, now that isn’t so dependent from one key player, which could give a chance to run head to head with BYD in 2019.

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (7%) managed to resist Chery (6%) retaining the same medal won in 2017.

Friday, January 18, 2019

Germany December 2018

Resultado de imagem para Renault zoe vs VW e-Golf vs bmw i3

Renault Zoe wins 2018 Models trophy, BMW wins Manufacturers

The German PEV passenger car market ended the year dropping 10% in December, to 5,711 registrations, with BEVs continuing to expand (+12% YoY), while PHEVs aren't finding a way out of the hole (-35% in December), with full electrics now frankly outselling plugin hybrids (67% share for BEVs) in December, and well above the 2018 average (53%).

Because the mainstream market is also down (-8%), the PEV Share climbed to 2.4% in December
, with BEVs alone hitting 1.6%, while the final PEV share for 2018 ended at 2%, a new record.

Looking at December Best Sellers, you can see the good moment of BMW, with the German brand placing 2 models in the Top 5, while the Renault Zoe remained at a near-record level, with 944 registrations, winning another Monthly Best Seller title.

But the surprise of the month was the Audi e-Tron reaching the Fifth Spot, with 528 deliveries, a good start for the German electric SUV. Will we see it here more often? I bet we will...

Renault Zoe
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
Audi e-Tron
BMW 225xe A. Tourer

The German PEV market is known for close races and its changes and surprises, with the 2018 edition being no exception, first of all, the last year winner, the Audi A3 e-Tron, ended 2018 in...#14. Well, that was a fall, wasn't it?

So, we have a new winner, with the Renault Zoe finally winning the Models title, after two consecutive years as Second Best.

The VW e-Golf won the runner-up place, with 5,743 registrations (+90% regarding 2017) repeating this year the highest standing for a Volkswagen, hit in 2015 with the VW Golf GTE.   

The last place of the podium had an interesting race, with two BMW's (i3 and 225xe AT), running for it, with the hot hatch (5,095 units, +18%) finally overcoming its MPV cousin.

Below the top positions, there were some interesting changes, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV went up two spots, ending in #9, while the BMW 530e also climbed two positions, to #12, winning the trophy of Best Selling Luxury Plugin. 

Finally, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric rose to #13, while the Mini Countryman PHEV was up to #17, underlining the good moment that the BMW Group is experiencing.

Outside the Top 20, besides the  aforementioned Audi e-Tron ramp up, we should also mention the 104 units of the Hyundai Kona EV, with the Korean slowly increasing the pace of deliveries. 

Looking sub-categories Best Sellers, the BMW 225xe A. Tourer was the Best Selling PHEV and MPV, while the Outlander PHEV was the highest placed SUV, and the StreetScooter Work (4,214 units, up 8%) continues to rule the electric LCV sector.

In the brands ranking, BMW (19%, +1%) won its 4th manufacturers title, ahead of Volkswagen (16%), while the #3 Smart (10%) won the last place of the podium, resisting the advances of Renault (9%).

The German PEV market is one of the most unpredictable out there, so it's not easy to say what's going to happens this year, but i believe the market should jump North of 3% share, thanks to improved models, like the new BMW i3, that might reach some 6,000 units, or the Renault Zoe (9,000 units?), but mainly due to new additions, like the Audi e-Tron, that should reach some 6,000 deliveries, while the Tesla Model 3 could have some 9,000 deliveries in German lands, allowing it to run with the Zoe for the 2019 title. 

Thursday, January 17, 2019

Iceland December 2018

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19% Share in 2019, 32% in December!!!

Sales grew moderately in 2018 (+15%) this year, but because the mainstream market is dropping significantly (16% this year, and 46%(!) last month), the PEV shares are jumping through the roof, with December hitting an amazing 32% PEV share and the 2018 ending at a record 19%, a significant departure from the 14% from 2017, and the 2nd highest share in the world. 

Will PEV share hit 25% this year?

Considering the behavior of the other advanced EV market, Norway, is similar behavior, with moderate PEV growth and a sales drop in the mainstream auto market, we are starting to see a trend, that can be replicated in other markets, as once markets hit some 10% market share, plugin sales slow down to 20-30% growth rates, while at the same time, the mainstream market starts to shrink, as regular buyers come to realize that fossil fueled vehicles are becoming dinosaurs.

Looking at this year Best Sellers in the Models ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV won another title, its 3rd in a row, with a record 999 units, confirming its popularity in this market, while the Nissan Leaf got yet another runner-up spot, its Third in a row. 

In the remaining podium position, the Volvo XC90 PHEV repeated last year Bronze medal, with the 2018 podium replicating exacly the 2017 standing.

Elsewhere, the Best Selling small EV trophy winner, Renault Zoe had a last minute climb, to #13, while the Climber of the Year was the Volvo XC60 PHEV, that jumped from #19 in 2017, to #4 this year.

In the brands ranking, Mitsubishi (29%) won the trophy, its 3rd, with Volvo (17%) ending in Second, while the #3 Volkswagen (12%) had to sweat to keep the Bronze medal away from the #4 Nissan (11%).

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Denmark December 2018

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Kia Niro PHEV #1 in Booming market

The 4.583 units registered last year in Denmark, represented a 261% jump regarding 2017,making it the best year since 2015.

This surge in sales lead to a 2018 PEV share of 2%, slightly lower than the 2.3% of 2015, but a good starting base for this market to go into record levels in 2019. Will it reach 4%? 5%?

Unfortunately, a large part of this growth comes from PHEVs, that shooted +449%, while BEVs  jumped a more reasonable +111%, resulting in a PHEV share of 68% of all plugin sales, a new all-time high, and a stark departure from the 23% that plugin hybrids had in 2017, a strange case of delayed PHEV-addiction, when most markets across Europe are dropping the PHEV addiction.

But enough of complaining, in the middle of this sales boom, the surprise winner was the Kia Niro PHEV, with 1.113 units, easily winning the Models title (a first for Kia) with almost double the sales of the #2 Nissan Leaf, itself also a big surprise, having surged from na almost insignificant 20 registrations in 2017, to 637 in 2018. Not bad…

Finally, the VW Golf GTE benefitted from a great first half of the year to secure a Third Spot, thus making a completely new Podium regarding the previous year, when the Renault Zoe won the title, followed by the VW e-Up! and the Tesla Model X.

Looking at the remaining models ranking, the aforementioned Renault Zoe climbed to 4th in the last month of the year, thanks to a Year Best performance in December (121 deliveries).

In the Manufacturers ranking, Kia (31%) won the Best Seller award, its first, with Volkswagen repeating last years Second Place (15%), and Nissan (14%) winning to Hyundai the race for Bronze, but nevertheless, the fact that Hyundai was so close to the podium, highlights the rising powers that the Koreans are now.

A final note regarding 2019, as this is becoming an unpredictable market and i do not know who will win (Koreans?), i will only mention my forecast for the Tesla Model 3 in Denmark: 350 units

Monday, January 14, 2019

New Zealand December 2018

Resultado de imagem para hyundai kona electric new zealand

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV wins 5th title in a row, but Hyundai wins Manufacturers

Plugins remain a hot item in New Zealand, last month, 92 units were sold in New Zealand, up 31% YoY, pulling the year result to a record 1,523 units, and placing the final 2018 PEV Share at 1.4%, more than double of last year result (0.6%). Will we see it reach 3% in 2019?

Looking at the models ranking, the 2018 Models title remained in the hands wheels of the  Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that thanks to the arrival of the revised MY 2019 version, scored a record 300 deliveries in 2018, making this year title, its Fifth in a row.

The runner-up spot went again for the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, slightly improving on the 2017 result (221 vs 206), while the last place of the podium has the Tesla Model X winning its first Medal, with 146 deliveries, while its older sibling, the Model S, saw its registrations drop 16% in 2018, ending the year in #6. Is the Tesla Model 3 long shadow also hitting the Model S in New Zealand? More on that later…

Elsewhere, two fresh faces have made an impression, with the Toyota Prius PHEV shooting to #4 in its first year on the market (at the expense of the regular HEV version, that suffered heavy losses this year), while the Hyundai Kona EV ended the year in #7, despite having only landed on the second half of the year. 

In the Manufacturers ranking, Hyundai was the surprise winner, with 25% share, placing three models in the Top 10, while the seven times Best Selling Manufacturer Mitsubishi dropped to Second Place (20%), and Tesla (17%) took the last place of the podium. 

Looking into 2019, the Outlander PHEV will have a hard time to renew its Best Seller title, as the Hyundai Kona EV will build on the current performances and try to replace it on the leadership, while the Tesla Model 3, set to land on the second half of the year, should win enough deliveries to have a shot at #1.

But even if the Japanese SUV wins in 2019, the 2020 Models title should go the Tesla Model 3, as it benefits from its first full deliveries year, possibly reaching some 900 deliveries by that time.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

France December 2018

Resultado de imagem para renault zoe France
Charging up

Leader Renault Zoe pulls market to new heights 

The French PEV passenger car market registered 5,644 registrations in December (+18% YoY), a new all time record, and the result could have been higher, if it weren't the dysmal results of PHEVs, that were down 21%, their sharpest drop since 2016, while all-electric models grew 37% in the same period, helping them to reach a record share of 2.7% in December (3.4%, if we include PHEVs).

This recent sales pick up, pulled the 2018 PEV share North of 2%, ending at record 2.1%, with BEVs alone having 1.7% share. Nevertheless it is a disappointing result, considering  the high level of subsidies associated and the fact that the PEV share only improved 0.4% regarding the 2017 result (1.7%). Better luck in 2019?

More telling of the changing times is the diesel fall from grace in the mainstream market, with the 2018 share shrinking to 39% (35% last November), a significant departure from the 47% of 2017 and a far cry from the 73% of 2012...Will diesel sales be dead by 2023 in one of the most diesel-addicted markets?

Looking at December Best Sellers, the larger amount of available batteries is allowing the Renault Zoe to reach new heights, registering a record 2,558 units in December (+55% YoY), pulling it to #16 in the mainstream market, its highest standing so far, selling at the same level as the Renault ScĂ©nic, with the Zoe selling on a 1-to-4 ratio regarding the market leader, the Renault Clio, its ICE sibling. 

But the real event happened in the Third Spot, with the Smart Fortwo ED scoring a record 339 deliveries, while in #6 we have a fresh face, with the Kia Niro EV, aka e-Niro, delivering 175 units in its first full month on the market, a strong beggining that might indicate the Korean Crossover is set for a Top 5 spot in 2019.

The same can be said about the Hyundai Kona EV, that is  (slowly) ramping up its deliveries, having registered 146 units in December. Will we have two Koreans on the 2019 Top 5? More on that later...  

Renault Zoe
Nissan Leaf
Smart Fortwo ED
BMW i3
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV

In a market known for its stability, it is no surprise to find that the Renault Zoe won the Models trophy, its 6th in a row, with a record 17,038 units, a 12% improvement over the 2017 result, while the Nissan Leaf took another runner-up place, with 4.668 units, almost doubling last year result.

The 2018 Bronze Medal went for the BMW i3, with 2.415 units (+24%), while the year biggest surprise was the Volvo XC60 PHEV, coming out of of the blue to the 4th position, winning the 2018 Best Selling PHEV title, after a close race with the Mini Countryman PHEV and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. 

Looking at the second half of the table, we can see two (mostly) intersecting trends, with BEVs and the Koreans rising in December, the Tesla Model S profited from the end-of-quarter push, to jump two positions (#12), while the Tesla Model X had a record breaking month, with 93 registrations, allowing it to end the year in #21.

The runnout-mode Kia Soul EV also jumped two positions, to #14, while both Hyundai Ioniq's, the BEV and PHEV, climbed one position, the first to #17, while the second was up to #19. Korea is rising…

Looking at some sub-categories, the Best-Selling SUV/CUV was the Volvo XC60 PHEV (interesting how PHEVs and SUVs overlap, isn't it?), the BMW 225xe A. Tourer won once again the Best Selling MPV award (lack of competitors tend to do these things…), while the Tesla Model S and Volvo XC90 PHEV renewed their Best Selling Large Car and SUV trophies, respectively.

In the brands ranking, Renault (37%) won its 7th consecutive(!) title, followed at a distance by the #2 Nissan and the #3 BMW, both with 10% share, but with the Japanese managing to keep a 300 units advantage over the German brand.

This was a great return to form by Nissan, after ending in 4th last year, with only 6% share, while BMW dropped one position regarding 2017. 

Finally, a quick mention to the large e-LCV sector in France, the 8,103 units represented a 35% growth regarding 2017, with the Renault Kangoo ZE not giving chances to anyone, almost doubling sales regarding last year, to 4,176 units, far, far ahead of the #2 Nissan e-NV200, that registered 649 units. 

Looking into 2019, if the Renault Zoe has the next Models title already assured, with the French hatchback probably crossing the 20,000 units mark, the Second Place should see an interesting race between the Nissan Leaf and the upcoming Tesla Model 3, with the Californian possibly reaching some 5,500 deliveries in 2019.

Below these, there should be a few models making some 3,000-ish performances, besides the BMW i3, we should see both the Kia Niro EV and Hyundai Kona EV also reaching these heights (assuming the Korean makers can get enough batteries, of course…), while the Peugeot 3008 PHEV, said to land by October of 2019, should make a strong last quarter of the month, becoming not only the 2019 Best Selling PHEV, but also another contender for a Top 5 presence.

But, while the 2019 year sure looks more interesting to see than this past year, i believe the true disruption will only come in 2020, when Peugeot plays its cards, starting to deliver its 208 EV, finally forcing the Renault Zoe to play game and make an effort to keep #1, while the 3008 PHEV will go after the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3 for Third position, thus making the PEV podium a lot more similar to the mainstream one.