Saturday, January 31, 2015

World Top 20 December 2014 (Special Edition)

"I'm Coming to Get'ya, Leaf!"

Models - Leaf Had To Sweat

With a massive 37.000 plug-ins sold in December, the global market for electric cars continues to grow at a healthy rate, ending the year with some 315.0000 units, with record sales from several models, like the Tesla Model S (5.498 units!), Renault Zoe (2.556 units), BYD Qin (1.819 units), with a couple of chinese models delivering completely unexpected results, like the BAIC E200 EV (2.615 units!), or the BYD e6 (1.129 units, a new personal record, after 5 years in the market).

The Nissan Leaf was the Best-Selling model in December, as it is the case during the whole year, but this time it had some real competition, having to perform its second-best-ever-month (5.976 units) in order to outrun the insane performance of the Model S, that fueled with the AWD versions, it was only the third model to reach the 5.000 threshold in one month.

Looking at the full year ranking, the first position was for the Nissan Leaf with a record 61.027 units (But it has lost 4% share regarding 2013...), followed by the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, which ended the year holding the Silver Medal by just 66 units, considering that the #3 Tesla Model S sales will be still subject to small changes in the future, the Outlander might have the #2 still in danger.

Behind them we see  two models (Volt and Prius Plug-In) losing speed, particularly the japanese, that has failed to deliver a four-digit performance for the second consecutive month

In #7 the BYD Qin continues to impress (And improve its personal record month after month), while the Renault Zoe benefited from a record-shattering performance in December to climb one position to #9, we have to go back to 2013 to find the last time that the french hatch was so high in the ranking, while the #3 in the Monthly Ranking won by the Zoe was a first for the french hatch.

Because this is a full year edition, the ranking includes cars from #11 to #20, where we can see some interesting things, like two rising stars coming from China (Zotye E20 and BAIC E200 EV), or the VW e-Up! rising in the ranking, but also some major dives, like the Volvo V60 Plug-In (From #7 to #17), the Renault Kangoo ZE (#10 to #18) or the continued fall from the Mitsubishi I-Miev, from #5 in 2012, to #12 the next year and now in #19...The I-Miev needs an urgent replacement, Mitsu.

Looking at the EV Market with the traditional segmentation, let's see who are the Best-Sellers in each Segment:

* Micro-Car - Kandi EV;

* A-Segment - VW e-Up!;

* B-Segment - BMW i3;

* C-Segment - Nissan Leaf;

* D-Segment - Ford Fusion Energi;

* E/F-Segment - Tesla Model S;

* SUV - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV;

* MPV - Ford C-Max Energi;

* Pick-Up - Mitsubishi Minicab Miev;

* Sports Car - BMW i8. Yep, the german dream car has already outsold the Cadillac ELR...



PlWORLDDec.2014%'13Pl
1Nissan Leaf5.97661.027191
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV2.16531.689105
3Tesla Model S5.49831.623104
4Chevrolet Volt (1)1.60821.293112
5Toyota Prius Plug-In91519.01883
6BMW i31.81016.052520
7BYD Qin1.81914.747540
8Ford Fusion Energi80511.71949
9Renault Zoe2.55611.32346
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Kandi EV
Ford C-Max Energi
Chery QQ3 EV
Zotye E20
Smart Fortwo ED
Volkswagen e-Up!
BAIC E150 / E200 EV
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Renault Kangoo ZE
Mitsubishi I-Miev (2)
BYD e6
360
684
50
1.497
812
369
2.615
341
583
262
1.129
10.022
8.705
7.866
7.341
5.824
5.448
5.234
5.149
4.257
3.936
3.611
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
N/A
8
11
N/A
13
19
24
7
10
12
17

TOTAL37.034317.895


The Ambitious Looking BYD Tang

Manufacturers - Mitsubishi #3

In the Manufacturers ranking, we've got Nissan again in #1 with 20% share (It has lost 3% Share), followed from a far by Mitsubishi with 12% share and Tesla, with 10%. 

Below the Podium, there were some last minut changes, with Chevrolet surpassing Ford and reaching #4, while BMW lost not one, but two positions in one month(!), dropping to #9, to the benefit of BYD (#7) and Renault (#8), both with record months in December.

Looking below the #10 Kandi, we can see two rising powers: Zotye in #13 and BAIC in #15, both of them with Top 10 ambitions in 2014, while Volkswagen has been slowly getting closer to the Top 10, it has ended the year in #11, while down below Volvo is agonizing in #16, down 8 positions regarding last year.


PlWORLDDec.2014%'13Pl
1Nissan6.35463.327201
2Mitsubishi2.50636.670123
3Tesla 5.49831.623105
4Chevrolet1.73922.50972
5Ford1.54222.43677
6Toyota95220.47064
7BYD3.08018.358611
8Renault3.35118.33866
9BMW2.13617.793614
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Kandi
Volkswagen
Chery
Zotye
Smart
BAIC
Volvo
Porsche
Fiat
Cadillac
Kia
981
1.433
466
1.517
812
2.615
341
208
115
121
289
11.307
9.703
8.605
7.542
5.824
5.234
5.182
1.954
1.799
1.354
1.340
4
3
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
0
0
N/A
13
9
23
10
16
8
22
18
29
N/A





(1) - Includes Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera;
(2) - Includes Peugeot iOn and Citröen C-Zero



Forecasting is always a tricky subject, so instead of analyzing model by model, brand by brand, i've decided to have a look at each Automotive Group and their perspectives for 2015:

* Renault-Nissan - As the undisputed leader of the plug-in market, with some 220.000 units sold, making 30% of the market, there is a lot at stake with the competition launching many new models, while the Alliance has...Zero this year. Well, not quite, the renewed Zoe and the further production increase of the e-NV200/Evalia should help things, but there's two important question marks: How much will the Venucia version of the Leaf benefit from China's growth, and how high can the new Zoe go? I'm going for 95K units in 2015, up from 82K last year;

* Mitsubishi - Despite a being a major player in the Plug-In market, truth is that the Japanese carmaker is relatively small in the fishtank of Global Auto Groups, and that is starting to show, now that they finally have a hit on their hands, with the Outlander PHEV, they don't seem to have the ability to get the full profit from it, especially by entering in the largest SUV market in the World, the USA. Without it, their growth perspectives are severely lowered, while the rest of their offerings are starting to get a bit vintage...They need to increase their batteries production. Fast. And significantly. Because of this, i see some 50K units this year.

* Tesla - If Mitsu is small fish, the american brand is a just-out-of-the-shell-baby croc...A baby croc with a rock-star attitude wanting to (someday) swallow Big Whites whole in one piece, that's how ambitious they are. Fact is those large sharks (And everybody in that fishtank) are taking a close eye on it, hoping to smother it before it's too (Gigafactory) late. But enough of analogies, Tesla as the all-important Model X to launch and much relies on its shoulders, with the Model S probably stuck at making 35K this year, it will be up to the SUV to increase dramatically sales for Tesla, in this regard, timing will be essential, in order to know if Tesla reaches 70K or only 50K.


This angry-looking 2nd Gen Volt has a lot to live up to
* General Motors - With a second generation Volt coming, much is expected from it to stop the sales decline it has been experiencing since 2012, after all the american plug-in hybrid is still the second best-selling car ever on this segment, with the stupid controversial decision to euthanize the Opel Ampera, it pretty much depends on the US market to decide on the success of this car. I would go for 7.5K for Gen 1 Volt plus 25K for the Gen 2, with some additional 3K from the rest of the lineup.

* Ford - As it has been evident in the last couple of months, small range PHEV have been hit by the low price of gas, and without any major news coming in 2015, they will have to sell at discount prices if they want to keep sales at the same level of 2014. So, 23K.

* Toyota - Just like Ford, they have been hit with lowering sales, with the additional problem of an ageing car (The Prius has been here since 2010) and the general disinterest from the MotherShip, now with eyes only to its new baby, the Fuel Cell Mirai. I'm thinking 13K for the whole year. 

* BYD - If some seem to be disregarding the market, others are coming with everything they've got. Besides the continuation of the success story Qin (18K for this year), and the upcoming Tang, there are more two SUV's promised, as well as an sucessor to the e6, all in the same year! The brand is known for delaying a bit their launches but all in all, i would go for some 35K this year for BYD.

* BMW - Now that they have experimented the taste of plug-in success, they are coming back for more, now in the form of a PHEV SUV, the X5 will surely increase significantly the sales volume, the question will be: "By how much?". I would go for 5K for the X5 PHEV plus 25K for the i-branded cars.


Geely is looking to win some phat profits on the back of this tank SUV

* Geely - Hot on the heels of the Kandi 2-seater EV success, there are insiders saying that four(!) new models are expected this year, even if this doesn't comes into reality, i can see some 20K coming from Kandi. As Volvo is part of Geely, one has also to consider the impact of the new XC90 PHEV on sales, so i would go for 5K for the SUV going together with an additional 5K for the existing V60 Plug-In, making a total of 30K for the Geely Group.

* VW - The Largest of the Large Great Whites in the Auto Industry is still relatively small in the EV Segment, but as the interest slowly rises and their deep pockets are starting to be used here, the lineup is starting to grow significantly, especially on the PHEV formula, i think the Golf GTE will be a (relative) sales success and will probably hit the 10K bar, and with the help of the Passat GTE and the rest of the lineup, sales will probably double and reach 25K. 

* Daimler - While Smart has seen a small but constant uptick in sales, the new Generation Fortwo ED should help sales to increase to some 8K, but the real challenge is Mercedes, after a 2014 (way) below expectations, one wonders how far can they go with their plug-in offerings, with the all important addition of the C-Class PHEV, one can imagine Mercedes getting up to 12K this year.  

Finally, looking at the market as a whole, i would think that the market will continue to grow at a steady rate, reaching some 450K units by the end of this year.

Europe December 2014

Back To The Top

Zoe Steals the Show Edition

With 11.000 units sold last December, some would say that the European EV market was down 40% regarding the same month last year and that would be due to lower gas prices and this would be the sign of a struggling 2015 for plug-ins in Europe.

Yes, numbers can be played that way, but remember that at the time, sales highly were inflated by the Dutch year end rush, if we take that abnormal number (14.197) off, last months result is actually the best EVER in Europe, contributing for a yearly sales jump of 49%, ending at just a smidge over 100K units (100.060, to be more exact, which could be even a bit higher as some markets don't break sales by fuel source). Not bad for a struggling niche, eh?

Looking at the monthly models ranking, the Renault Zoe delivered an astonishing result (2.538 units), performing a new Personal Best and a Year Best for a single model, while at the same time reaching #1 for the first time since June '13.

Tesla also impressed, with 1.477 units, its best result since March, while in #6 we have another Renault, the workhorse Kangoo ZE had its best month since September '13, selling 582 units, underlining a perfect month for the french brand.

PlModelSales  
1
Renault Zoe
2.538
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1.488
3Tesla Model S1.477
4Nissan Leaf1.285
5BMW i3646

On the YTD ranking, the Model S is up one position to #4, relegating the BMW i3 to #5 (And to think that the german hot-hatch was still #3 last October...), but we have to move to the second half of the ranking to see more last minute changes, with the Audi A3 e-Tron rising two positions to #19, while the Kia Soul EV climbed to #23.

Breaking the ranking by segments, PHEV's were totally dominated by the Outlander PHEV (The #2 Plug-in Hybrid was the Volvo V60 Plug-In, only #7 in the ranking!), while the Leaf collected the BEV trophy, the Rock-Steady (7 consecutive months on the 300/400 area) VW e-Up! won the A-Segment, the Zoe was revived just in time to recover the B-Segment title, the Leaf was the best selling C-car, while in the LCV's, the Renault Kangoo ZE revalidated the title, but the Nissan e-NV200 has been giving a fight lately, so we can see interesting developments here in the near future.

Looking on the Manufacturers ranking, Mitsubishi won the Best-Seller Trophy, relegating the previous leader, Renault, for #2, while Nissan ended in #3, only 300 units behind its Alliance sister.

Looking into 2015, i would see a slower growth rate, with total sales reaching probably the 120-something-thousands, while in the models ranking, the top positions will continue without major surprises, with Top Five models continuing their close run, with the Golf GTE possibly surprising the current status-quo at some point.

PlEuropeDec.2014%'13Pl
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1.48819.980203
2Nissan Leaf1.28515.275151
3Renault Zoe2.53811.231112
4Tesla Model S1.4779.49397
5BMW i36468.810912
6Volkswagen e-Up!3685.450511
7Volvo V60 Plug-In3415.09954
8Renault Kangoo ZE 5824.19745
9Volkswagen e-Golf3353.3283N/A
10Smart Fortwo ED4522.72639
11Renault Twizy1812.346210
12Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia3782.3002N/A
13
14
Bolloré Blue Car
Toyota Prius Plug-In
100
42
1.170
899
1
1
16
8
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
BMW i8
Opel Ampera
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Audi A3 e-Tron
Citröen C-Zero
Peugeot iOn
VW Golf GTE
Kia Soul EV
Goupil
Peugeot Partner EV
Ford Focus Electric
Citröen Berlingo EV
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Mercedes B-Class ED
Renault Fluence ZE
141
51
40
24
103
10
22
198
125
40
11
0
14
56
43
1
885
832
674
636
618
606
594
534
468
451
309
203
187
169
150
105
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
N/A
15
14
21
N/A
12
18
N/A
N/A
17
22
24
N/A
N/A
N/A
19

TOTAL11.108100.060






UK Full Year 2014 (Draft Edition)

Going Up

Outlander PHEV dethrones Leaf Edition

Apart from the Leaf and Outlander PHEV numbers, i don't have accurate data for the UK, but the numbers were so high, that i just had to publish something.

Some 14.000 plug-ins were sold last year in the UK, not only it has shattered the previous yearly record to bits (The previous record was around 4.000 units), but it also rose the UK to the fourth largest EV market in Europe, surpassing Germany(!). As consequence of this, the EV Share made an historic jump to 0,56%, miles above the 0,16% recorded in 2013.

Besides the sudden sales surge, the big news in 2014 was the brilliant and somewhat unexpected career of the Mitsu Outlander PHEV, shooting right to Number One in its debut year, with 5.370 units, outselling the perennial leader (#1 since 2011) Nissan Leaf, which, despite doubling sales, couldn't resist the tidal wave made by the plug-in SUV.

This dutch-like performance of the Outlander made the UK the third largest market for Mitsu's SUV, only behind Japan and Holland, while at the same time made the UK's PHEV share double from 22% in 2013 to 47% now.

Looking at the top positions in general, we can see a majority of new models filling up the top spots, while the two resistants from 2013 saw their sales double, which is a good sign for the upcoming months.

Looking for 2015, the top two will continue to run for #1, while the EV market as a whole will continue to grow, although with slower growth rates. I'm predicting some 19.000 units in the end of 2015, what do you think?

PlUK    2014    2013%'13Pl
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV5.370N/A391
2Nissan Leaf4.0511.81229N/A
3
4
5

BMW i3 e)
Tesla Model S e)
Renault Zoe e)

1.274
658
607

94
N/A
358

9
5
4

12
N/A
4








e) Estimate

Source: smmt.co.uk; samochodyelektryczne.org

Friday, January 30, 2015

Japan December 2014

This one is coming to back-up Nissan's race with Mitsubishi.

Leaf Again

An average month, with 2.513 units sold last month, which is 22% below the previous year, but nevertheless the YTD numbers ended with 32.403 units, a 2.000 units increase over the previous record.

Looking at the YTD models ranking, the Leaf ended again in #1, achieving its Third Best-Seller Title (2011, 2013 and now 2014), with a new yearly record (14.177 units), while the #2 Mitsu Outlander PHEV disappointed, only improving slightly its performance over last year (+456 units to 10.064 units),The rest of the models have small numbers, but the Mitsu Minicab Miev Truck saw its sales dip to just 177 units.

Looking at the brands ranking, Nissan (44%) won over Mitsubishi (37%), and with the addition of the e-NV200 coming soon, things can only get better for Nissan.
Pl
Japan
Dec.
  2014
     %Pl '13
1Nissan Leaf1.19514.17744
 1
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV60810.06431
 2
3Toyota Prius Plug-In e)5004.97815
 3
4Mitsubishi I-Miev711.0223
 4
5Mitsubishi Minicab Miev578653
 5
6
7
8
9
10
BMW i3 e)
Tesla Model S e)
Mit. Minicab Miev Truck
Honda Accord Plug-In e)
BMW i8 e)
100
50
22
5
5
815
192
177
112
16
3
1
1
0
0
 N/A
N/A
6
8
N/A

TOTAL2.51332.418100

e) Estimate



Source:http://evn.blog.eonet.jp; http://www.samochodyelektryczne.org

Portugal December 2014


"Oh Sunny Day...."

BMW i3 Triumphs in Record Year Edition

There were 39 EV's sold last December, mounting the full year sales numbers to 362 units, a 39% improvement over the previous record, placing the EV Share at 0,25%, not that far away from last year performance (0,23%), but this apparent inconsistency is explained by the two digit growth of the general market.

Looking at the models ranking, the BMW i3 is the new Sales Darling, succeding two Renault-Nissan Alliance cars (Leaf in 2010 & 2011, Twizy in 2012 and 2013) on the Top Spot, this is a remarkable performance, considering that the BMW i-Line is only sold in two dealerships (Lisbon and Porto), which makes me think that they appeal to urban consumers, that wish the latest cool stuff. Yes, electric cars are beggining to be cool and not just some weird thing that only tech nerds and tree huggers love...

The Nissan Leaf dropped to the YTD Second Place, with 60 units, with the Renault Twizy in Third, while in #4 we have a surprise, with the Mitsu Outlander PHEV registering an impressive performance, the best ever for a Plug-In Hybrid, with 39 units and 11% share. This year PHEV's have grown significantly in Portugal, with their share now at 25%, when in the previous year they had only 9%.

Looking at LCV's, the Nissan e-NV200 managed to tie with the chronical leader Renault Kangoo ZE, both with 12 units. With Nissan actively promoting the Evalia / e-NV200, Renault will have to react if it wants to keep the leadership in this market niche.

In the manufacturers ranking, Renault (25% Share) revalidated the Best-Seller title, just edging out BMW (24%) in Second, while Nissan stayed in #3, although not too far behind the top two, with 20% Share.

PlPortugal
Dec.
2014
%
Pl '13
1BMW i347220
7
2Nissan Leaf46017
3
3
4
Renault Twizy
Mit. Outlander PHEV 
3
5
44
39
12
11
1
N/A
5Renault Zoe7349
5
6
7
8
8
8
11
12
13
14
15
15
15
18
18
20
20
20
Smart Fortwo ED
BMW i8
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Nissan e-NV200
Renault Kangoo ZE
Volkswagen e-Up!
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Volkswagen e-Golf
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Porsche 918
Opel Ampera
Peugeot Partner EV
Citroen Berlingo EV
Peugeot iOn
Kia Soul EV

1


3
4

4
1
2

1




17
13
12
12
12
10
9
7
5
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
5
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
6
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
9
N/A
8
N/A
N/A
2
N/A

TOTAL39362100

Source: ACAP

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

South Korea December 2014 (Draft Edition)



Kia Edition

There were 856 electric cars sold in SK last year, a new record, pulling the EV Share slightly up from 0,05% to 0,06%.

Looking at the possible YTD ranking, Kia wins by a long shot, with 57% share, with the Soul EV succeeding to overcome the thought dead #2 Samsung SM3 EV and earn the Best Seller Trophy, with the BMW i3 winning a rather surprising #4, while the other Kia model (Ray EV) ends in #3 its last year on the market.

A final mention for the Nissan Leaf, registering 30 units in December, will the japanese car gain traction in South Korea and become a relevant player?

Pl
South Korea
December  2014     %Pl '13
1Kia Soul EV3031136
N/A
2Samsung SM3 ZE2020324
 1
3
4
Kia Ray EV
BMW i3
15
10
183
83
21
10
2
N/A
5
6
Chevrolet Spark EV
Nissan Leaf
5
30
46
30
5

3
N/A

TOTAL115856100