Monday, October 22, 2018

China September 2018

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BYD Tang #1 in Record Month

After a few months threatening to break the all-time record (102,635 units, set last December), the Chinese PEV market finally hit a new high, with some 104,900 units being registered in September, up 66%, in line with the previous months growth rates.

In a falling mainstream market (-12% YoY), the continued growth of the plugin market means that the PEV share hit a new all-time best, ending the month with 5.2%, while the 2018 share rose to 3.3% share, a new record and well above the 2.1% of 2017, with sales expected to continue growing as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share could end North of the 3% 4% threshold, with December possibly reaching 7%.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near future, foreign brands starting to put an effort, although their share is just 6%, due the sharp decrease of Tesla (-84% YoY). Of this (small) cake, 2% still belong to Tesla, and 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In September, the headlining news were the hot BYD Tang PHEV winning its second consecutive monthly Best Seller award, while the BYD Yuan EV climbed to the podium, almost allowing a 1-2 win for the carmaker. Maybe in October?

Here’s September Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

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#1 – BYD Tang PHEV: After five months on the market, the second-generation Tang confirmed its hot selling status, winning its second consecutive Best Seller award, with last month performance beating the nameplate sales record, by registering 6,019 registrations. Sales should continue strong for BYD’s successful flagship, and new record sales could still be achieved this year, at least until the BEV version of the Tang arrives, by December. As for the current Tang PHEV specs, BYD’s Sports SUV saw the battery grow to 24 kWh, originating an increased 100 kms range / 62 mi NEDC (around 70 kms / 44 mi real world), while on the power department, things stayed the same, with some 500 hp and 0-100 kms/h in less than 5 secs. All for CNY 279,800 / $40,816.

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#2 – Chery eQ: Chery was one of the Chinese brands to bet early in plug-ins, having won the models title three times in a row (2011, ’12, ’13), with its tiny QQ3 EV, now the automaker is trying to regain relevance with the eQ, the spiritual (and material) successor to the QQ3, having registered 5,310 units in last month (new year best), allowing it to collect another runner-up position. A vehicle marketed to city dwellers, for USD 24,000 before incentives, you get a funky city EV, with the 22.3kWh battery providing just enough range (200 kms / 125 miles NEDC), to cover the needs of the urban jungle (And the subsidies requirements).

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#3 – BYD Yuan EV: We all knew that BYD’s new Baby Crossover was destined for success, and with 5,008 deliveries in September in only its fourth month on the market, BYD’s new baby is living up to expectations. Are we witnessing the rise of the 2019 Best Selling model? I guess it will depend more on BYD’s ability/willingness to make them in volume (the Tang is more profitable), than actual demand, sitting on the vortex of the two fastest selling segments (Compact Crossovers and EVs), and with unrivalled specs (42 kWh battery, 305 kms/190 mi NEDC range, 174 hp motor), and price (25,000 USD), BYD might have found in this new model its star player, crowning what it is already a strong lineup.

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#4 – Hawtai EV160: The Inner Mongolian automaker bread and butter city EV narrowly escaped the subsidies cut early this Summer, by presenting 5 kms more range (155 kms NEDC) than the subsidy minimum (150 kms), thanks to a 21kWh battery, and sales have reflected this, with its numbers benefitting from the reduced competition, as the little EV hit a record 4,780 units in September. With basic specs (41hp lawnmower motor…) and design, Hawtai bets on a bargain-basement price (CNY 102,800 / $14,812), in order to allure car-sharing and other fleet buying companies.

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#5 – JAC iEV S/E: JAC was one of the EV pioneers in China, selling plug-ins since 2010, and now it’s back at the game, registering 4,621 units last month. With a competitive price of USD 26,000 before incentives, this is a vehicle targeted at trendy urbanites that for some reason can’t reach a BYD Song or Roewe’s eRX5, getting in return a good-looking compact vehicle (Kia Soul-sized), with just enough power and range (114 hp & 251 kms/156 mi) to not to make it look bad. Interestingly, the word on the street is that JAC has export ambitions…

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The Nio ES8

2018 ranking

In a record month, there weren’t significant changes, the most important being the Hawtai EV160 jumping 3 spots to #10, confirming the good moment of the Inner Mongolia brand.

The remaining changes benefitted BYD’s new babies, with the new Tang PHEV climbing to #14, while its smaller sibling, the Yuan EV, is now #16. If the first model has its eyes on a Top 10 spot, the second can also dream of it, which would make 5(!) BYD’s in the Top 10…

Another model shining last month was the #15 BAIC EU-Series, that made its best result in the last 23 months, thanks to 4,138 units.

Outside the Top 20, a lot is going on, on the large sedan class, the BMW 530e registered a record 2,216(!) units, with the Chinese market now being the largest market for the luxury sedan, profiting from the tariff war between China and the USA, that crippled the former class leader, the Tesla Model S. (“Vielen Dank, Donald!” – said an unnamed BMW manager).

The Nio ES8 continues with the gradual production ramp up (1,766 registrations last month) and was once again the Best-Selling Luxury SUV last month, with the Tesla Model X delivering less than 200 units, the new startup model has now a shot at removing Tesla from the yearly category leadership, so it will be interesting to see how this works out.

Another model on the rise is the recently arrived Geely Emgrand GSe EV (1,913 units) compact crossover, that is looking to catch up the class leaders (BYD Song PHEV and Roewe eRX5) next year.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD (19%) is a comfortable leader, thanks to the new Tang and Yuan, while the runner-up BAIC (13%), is waiting impatiently for the EC-Series to its get production in full swing, and in Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (11%) holds the last place of the podium, with a significant advantage over the #4, Chery (6% share).

Friday, October 19, 2018

Slovenia September 2018

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Nissan Leaf surges

The PEV market continues growing at a good pace (+53% YoY), allowing the respective share to hover at around 1% (1.1% in September, 0.9% YTD).

Slovenia's love for the BMW i3 is fading, with the Renault Zoe outrunning it for a couple of months already, while the Nissan Leaf profited from a record-breaking performance (27 units last month), to surpass the German hatcbach and reach #2.

Elsewhere, despite a slower selling i3, BMW has four models in the Top 4, which highlights the brand popularity in this market.

As mentioned before, BMW (30%) is a popular choice here, leading the manufacturers race, followed by Renault (15%) and Smart (15%), while Hyundai (9%), is just outside the podium.

The BEV/PHEV breakdown shows us that this continues to be a BEV-friendly market, with BEVs owning 65% of Plug-in sales.

Thursday, October 18, 2018

Austria September 2018

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Nissan Leaf #1 in September

Austrian plug-in sales were down 6% in September, but looking at the 2018 numbers, sales are still positive (+15%), with some 6,200 units, placing the PEV Share at 2.3%. 

Due to the previous pre-WLTP sales rush, PHEVs crashed in September (-26% YoY), while BEVs continued their steady growth (+6%), with all-electric cars representing 71% of sales. When governments play the incentives cards right, good things like these (Large BEV share) happen.

Looking at the models ranking, the VW e-Golf is firm in the leadership, with the German hatchback set to win its first Best Seller trophy in this market.

The four times winner (2017; '16; '14; '13) Renault Zoe is in Second Place, with the BMW i3 closing the podium, but the German Hot Hatch has to keep an eye on the #4 Nissan Leaf, that was last month Best Seller, with 135 units (New Personal Best), and is  now just 46 units behind.

In a 100% BEV Top 6, all-electric models are on the rise, with the #5 Hyundai Ioniq Electric having its best month in 8 months, by delivering 66 units, while the Tesla Model X was up two positions to #8.

The Best Selling PHEV is the Porsche Panamera PHEV, in #7, with 197 units, but the #14 BMW 225xe Active Tourer might still have a shot at the PHEV title, considering it is one of the few PHEVs unaffected by the new rules.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen is ahead, with 22% share, followed by BMW (17%), and Renault (14%).

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

Colombia September 2018

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Gaining momentum in Colombia

Record Month

EVs in Colombia are starting to pick up charge, with a record 79 units sold last month, a big jump over the 16 units registered 12 months ago, now that the market has catched the fastlane, the 416 units of this year have already pulverized the previous yearly record, of 278 units, made in 2016, making 2018 the real Year One of the PEV market here.

Regarding the PEV Share, the 2018 result is at 0.2%, while September hit an all time best of 0.4%, so the needle is starting to move in the right direction, and Colombia will likely be the first Latin American market to reach 1% share, confirming itself as the most promising plugin market to the south of the US border.

Looking at the Year Best Sellers, there weren't major changes regarding the June post, with the three times winner (2015, '16 & '17) Renault Twizy in First Place, followed by two BMW's (330e and i3) and the Renault Zoe stablemate just outside the podium.

Looking at the brands ranking, it's all about BMW and Renault, the German maker, winner in 2017, is ahead, with 40% share (down 3%), followed by Renault, with 29% (down 6%), while Kia and Mini are tied in Third, with 8% share. 

Renault Twizy
BMW 330e
Renault Zoe



Tuesday, October 16, 2018

New Zealand September 2018

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Hyundai Kona BEV on the rise

Plugins are a hot item in New Zealand, last month, 167 units were sold in New Zealand, up 86% YoY, and pulling the year result to 1,152 units, placing the 2018 PEV Share at a record 1.5%, while the September share was even better, hitting 1.8%.

Looking at the models ranking, the 2018 leadership is in the hands wheels of the usual Best Seller, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that thanks to the arrival of the revised MY 2019 version, scored its best result ever in this market, with 54 deliveries (And second best performance for a single model, only behind the 83 units achieved by the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, in October '17).

Last month result allowed the Japanese SUV to gain a significant advantage over the #2 Hyundai Ioniq Electric, while the last place of the podium has two Teslas and the VW e-Golf running for it, with the Model X being the new Bronze bearer, after surpassing the German nameplate last month.

But lately, the big news was the landing of the Hyundai Kona BEV, that was #4 last month, with 15 deliveries, while YTD it is already #10, but at this pace it should end at least in Seventh.

Elsewhere, the Audi A3 e-Tron had a good month, delivering 10 units, its best result in 10 months, while we salute a new face here, with the LDV Maxus EV80 electric van reaching the Top 20, in #18. 

In the Manufacturers ranking, Hyundai is the surprise leader, with 24% share, placing three models in the Top 10, while the seven times Best Selling Manufacturer Mitsubishi is in Second Place (20%), and Tesla (18%) is Third, while Volkswagen (9%) is a distant Fourth. 

Monday, October 15, 2018

Global Top 5 - Mid Game Bet

1. Tesla Model 3 - 82k

2. Nissan Leaf - 65k

3. BAIC EC-Series - 51k

4. Tesla Model S - 37k

5. BYD Qin PHEV or Toyota Prius PHEV - 35k