South Korea July 2020

 

Tesla Model 3 leads in Korea

The South Korean plugin market is showing positive numbers (+7% YoY), with over 22.000 units, with the PEV share now at 2%.

This good performance is mostly due to the Tesla Model 3, that stole the Hyundai Kona EV leadership last March, being the new Best Selling EV from then on, although since then its market share has decreased from 45% in March, to the current 31%.

Besides being removed from the throne, the Korean crossover saw its sales drop 45% YoY, with the Czech Hyundai factory now making units for Europe, Hyundai now has more space to allocate volume to its domestic market, so if the Kona EV numbers do not increase as the year progresses, it will mean that Hyundai has a demand problem. At home.

Elsewhere, the Kia Niro EV is the new 3rd placed, having surpassed the Chevrolet Bolt. 

Finally, the Tesla sports sedan is not the only foreigner to shine, as the BMW 530e is #5 and is closing in on the #4 Chevy Bolt.

A final mention to the Hyundai Nexo Fuel Cell model, a model that is seeing its registrations jump this year, to 3.312 units, making it a success story in Korea, a unique event for a FCEV, allowing the technology to have 0,31% share of the total market, a world best for Fuel Cells.

Spain July 2020

Record Month

With fresh cash for clunkers incentives, the Spanish automotive market has recovered from the pandemic-related doom and gloom, with the market reaching a 1% growth rate in July, cutting this year sales drop to just 43% YoY. 

But because those incentives are maximized for eco-friendly vehicles, plugin sales have jumped through the roof, hitting a record month in July (3.887 units), usually one of the slowest selling months in the country...But growth wasn't the same between BEVs and PHEVs, because while pure electrics jumped 117% YoY, to 1.608 units, plugin hybrids did even better, shooting 357%, hitting 2.279 units, with the latter winning significant share (59% PHEV vs 41% BEV in July, against 53% PHEV, 47% BEV in 2020), a significant fact in a traditionally BEV-friendly market.

Share-wise, last month plugins reached 3,3% (1,4% BEV), keeping the 2020 PEV share at 3.2% (1.5% BEV).

As for last month best sellers, we had a surprising podium, with the Peugeot 208 EV winning last month Best Seller trophy, thanks to a record 255 registrations, followed by the Kia Niro PHEV (210 units, best result in 2 years), while the popular Ford Kuga PHEV closed the podium, with 191 deliveries, yet another record performance for the Ford SUV. 

In the YTD table, good news also for Ford's Kuga PHEV, that climbed to #3, stealing on the way the Best Selling PHEV and SUV trophies from the #4 Peugeot 3008 PHEV, while the Hyundai Ioniq PHEV jumped three spots, to #6, thanks to a record 174 registrations.  

But the Climber of the Month was the Volvo XC40 PHEV, that was up 5 positions, to #11, thanks to a record 172 deliveries, highlighting a great month for Volvo, that had two other models scoring record performances, with the XC60 PHEV jumping to #15, thanks to 97 units, and the flagship XC90 PHEV scoring a best ever 64 units.

But in a record month, these weren't the only models shining, the #7 Mini Countryman PHEV (139 units) had a Year Best performance, the Seat Mii EV scored a record 149 deliveries, while outside the Top 20, records were plentiful, here's the most significant: Kia Xceed PHEV (111 units), Kia Niro EV (103), Peugeot 2008 EV (99), and Mercedes A250e (84).

A reference also to the landings of the Renault Captur PHEV (152 units!) and Jeep Renegade PHEV (51), two models that should get significant traction in this market, especially the French crossover, a strong candidate to a Top 10 (Top 5?) standing.

On the manufacturers ranking, the top two positions remained stable, with Peugeot (12%) ahead, followed by Renault (9%), while Tesla (5%) lost the Bronze medal to Kia (8%), being also surpassed by Hyundai (7%) and Volvo (6%). 

Belgium July 2020

Record Month in PHEV-friendly market

In normal years, the summer months of July and August signal a slowdown in registrations, as most buyers go on holidays...Only, 2020 is not a normal year, and with the pandemic-related disruption now in the past, the Belgian automotive market (-1% YoY) is back at normal numbers, and plugins resumed the fast lane, having beaten their own sales record for two months in a row (June and July), with last month scoring a best ever score of 3.695 units, a three-fold increase over the same month last year, pulling the YTD registration numbers to 18.219 units.

July's PEV share (8,3%), pulled the 2020 PEV share to 7%, well above the 3,2% share of last year, while this market returned to its PHEV addiction, as they represented 69% of registrations last month (66% in 2020).

Last month trend in this market were compact SUVs and locally-made models, with the local hero Volvo XC40 PHEV in the intersection of both trends, winning July's Best Seller status, with 374 units, allowing it to close in on the #2 Tesla Model 3, just 13 units ahead, and the current leader BMW X5 PHEV, 255 units away, so we could see the compact Volvo reach #1 soon. 

Speaking of BMW, the recent X1 PHEV was 2nd last month, with a record 248 deliveries, allowing it to jump to #12, but the highest position change happened in #6, where the Audi e-Tron, 3rd in July with a record 182 registrations, climbed 3 positions, reaching Sixth.

Other models on the rise were Skoda Superb PHEV, up to #10, while the Ford Kuga PHEV continues its upwards trend, jumping three spots, to #14, while the Mercedes A250e joined the ranking, in #18, thanks to a record 154 units.   

In a PHEV-friendly market, another trend is also visible, with this market being tilted towards the high end of the market, as we only have one small model in this Top 20, the #4 Renault Zoe, while 70% of the models in this Top 20 belong to the D-Segment (midsize) and above.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to two BEVs that are on track to join this Top 20, with the Hyundai Kona EV scoring a record 129 units, while the Porsche Taycan performed 142 deliveries, its highest result so far.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW (19%) is the clear leader, followed by Volvo (14%), with Tesla (9%) closing the podium, in Third.

The 4th placed is Mercedes (8%), looking to reach a medal position soon.

H1 2020 sales by OEM

Looking at the 2020 sales by Automotive Group, we have:

PHEV+BEV

If we gather plugin sales by Automotive Groups, Tesla is ahead, with 19% share, followed by the rising Volkswagen Group (13%), that increased the distance to the Renault-Nissan Alliance, that lost 2% share regarding the first quarter of this year, but it is still above the 8% of last year. 

Both the #4 BMW Group and the #5 Hyundai-Kia kept their positions and both lost 1% share regarding three months ago, now having 7% share, but the balance is still positive for the Korean OEM, as they ended 2019 with 6% share.

What catches our eyes in this Top 5 is the absence of Chinese OEMs, last year we had two (BYD and BAIC), expect these OEMs to rebound in a big way in the second half of the year.

BEV

Looking only at BEVs, Tesla lost 1% share regarding Q1, but it is still 5% above the 2019 result, while the #2 Renault Nissan Alliance lost a significant amount of share in this second quarter, dropping from 13% in Q1, to the current 10%, and although is it still better than the 2019 final score (8% share), it has seen the Volkswagen Group is getting really close, now less than 1.000 units behind, although the German OEM has also lost 1% share regarding Q1, the current 10% share is double what VW Group had in 2019.

Expect the German OEM to climb to the Second Spot soon, possibly by end of Q3.

BYD is also on the rise, climbing one position to #4, while increasing its QoQ share by 1%, to 7%, but despite this recovery, the Chinese OEM is still behind last year result of 9% share.

Comparing with the BEV+PHEV table, the big defeated is the BMW Group, that due to its heavy reliance on PHEVs, disappears from the Top 5, while comparing with last year Top 5, the Chinese BAIC and SAIC are left out, but expect SAIC to rebound soon, as the Shanghai maker has recently increased its sales (and share).

Global Top 20 June 2020

Tesla Model Y: Welcome to the Top 20!

Models: Tesla Model Y joins the table

Registrations were down 22% in June, which if isolation sounds bad, the truth is that the 230.000 units registered last month represented the 3rd best result in the last 18 months and a new year best, so one can hardly complain, especially considering that the second half of the year has great growth prospects, which might even turn around the YTD numbers, currently down by 16% YoY. 

And the overall automotive market isn't much better either, having dropped by 18% last month, with sales down 28% this year, and because of this, June's PEV share went up to 3,6%, pulling the 2020 plugin share to 2,9%, already above the 2,5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the gravity that the subsequent economic crisis, but whatever happens, expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its PEV share on the way.

In June, BEVs were down (-31%), while plugin hybrids returned to positive numbers (+14%), but despite that, the BEV/PHEV breakdown remained stable at 68% BEV, 32% PHEV. 

With a helping hand of the Chinese EV market, the Tesla Model 3 reigned supreme in June, more than tripling the sales of the runner-up Renault Zoe, with the French hatchback scoring its first five-digit performance, while the Tesla Model Y won its first monthly podium position, thanks to 7.500 deliveries, allowing Tesla's new baby to join the Top 20, in #14, in the coming months expect the Model Y to jump further positions, possibly reaching the podium by September.

In other news, the BYD Qin Pro EV surpassed the BMW 530e/Le, climbing one position, to #5, while the Hyundai Kona EV did the same to the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, with the Korean crossover reaching #7, and the good news for pure electric models haven't ended here, as the two new entries, the #13 Baojun E-Series and #14 Tesla Model Y, displaced two PHEVs from the ranking (Toyota Prius PHEV and Volvo XC60 PHEV), with plugin hybrids now having only 3 models in the Top 20 (#6 BMW 530e/Le, #8 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV and #10 VW Passat PHEV), although one should say that the Swedish SUV should return soon to the table, as it is just 100 units below the #20 Chevrolet Bolt, and has beaten its personal best in June, with 3.277 units, so we should hear from it again soon.

One bright spot on the plugin hybrid side was the VW Passat PHEV climbing one spot, to #10, in no small part thanks to its Chinese sales.

There were more action on the second half of the table, with the Kia Niro EV climbing to #16, thanks to a record 3.015 registrations in June, while the Tesla Model X benefited from the end of quarter high tide to jump 4 positions, to #15.

Outside the Top 20, a reference to two recent plugin hybrids on the rise, the Volvo XC40 PHEV scoring a record 2.975 units, while the Ford Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape) registered a record 3.701 units.

Manufacturers: Volkswagen jumps to #2

With such a high level of sales, June saw 7 brands score five-digit performances, and is Tesla's score isn't surprising, considering past end-of-quarter high tides, there were a few surprising scores, with three record performances: Volkswagen registered 14.829 units, allowing it to reach the runner-up spot, while Renault had 11.499 deliveries, climbing to #6, but the biggest surprise is Volvo, with the Swedish carmaker punching well above its weight, with 10.804 units, jumping in the YTD table to #7, a stark contrast to the #16 spot of last year.  

Having lost the Silver medal to Volkswagen, even the 3rd spot is looking pretty shaky for BMW, as the #4 BYD is shortening the distance (1.401 units separate both makers) to it, so we might see BMW kicked out of the podium soon...

Others makers on the rise are Mercedes, than jumped two positions in one month, to #11, thanks to a record 8.784 units, while Porsche also had a record month, allowing it to climb one spot, to #19. 

We have a new entry in the Top 20, with Ford rejoining the Best Sellers table, after a 4 year absence, thanks to a record 4,516 units (its second best in a row), ironically, Ford has replaced Chevrolet in the table, which could be a sign of the changing dynamics in the (former) Detroit Big 3... 

Outside the Top 20, the only brand close enough to ambition a Top 20 spot is Chery, that leads a number of Chinese brands looking for a place in the Top 20.

Category leaders

Here's a look at the current segment leaders:

A segment / City Cars - SAIC Baojun E-Series (13.673 units). Last year winner is in front again, with a sizeable 4.000 units advantage over the Chery eQ and Great Wall Ora R1;

B segment / Subcompacts - Renault Zoe (37.154 units). With almost 3 times as much sales as the category #2, the Peugeot 208 EV, the French EV is on its way to repeat the category title;

C segment / Compacts - Nissan Leaf (23.867). This year the Leaf will have a hard time to repeat the category title, if the #2 VW e-Golf shouldn't pose a threat in the end, because it is a couple of months of being discontinued, the same can't be said about the upcoming VW ID.3, that running from behind, might be able to steal the trophy in the last days of the year;

D segment / Midsize - Tesla Model 3 (142.346). There isn't even the slightest chance for discussion here, the Californian is just in a different league, regarding the #2 BYD Qin Pro EV.

E/F segments / Fullsize - BMW 530e/Le (20.586). Like last year, the big Bimmer is not giving any chances, doubling the result of the #2 Tesla Model S.

B/C segment SUVs - This is now Korean turf, with the Hyundai Kona EV ahead (19.286 units), now being followed by the Kia Niro EV cousin, that surpassed the SAIC MG eZS EV last month;

D segment SUVs - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (18.531 units). The perennial category winner will finally be removed by the throne this year, by what it looks like it will be another chronic winner, the Tesla Model Y;

E/F segment SUVs - Audi e-Tron (17.592 units). Unless Tesla has a big ace up its sleeve for the October refresh, 2020 will be the year that the Tesla Model X will lose the category trophy for the first time, in this case for the Audi e-Tron.

MPVs / Minivans - Chevrolet Bolt (11.496 units). In a contracting segment, the slow selling Chevrolet EV should take away the category award;

LCVs / Vans - Renault Kangoo EV (4.177 units). In a vehicle class where not much used to happen, the French van is going in front to win another trophy, but now it has to keep a close eye on the Korean siblings (Hyundai Porter EV and Kia Bongo EV), as well as a couple of Chinese vans, so we might a surprise here, towards the end of the year;  

Sports cars - BMW i8 (557 units). The eternal class winner, now in its last days on the market, should lose this year trophy to a representative of Chinese EV exotica: the Leapmotor S01, a small coupe that with 556 units already in 2020, should take this year Best Seller Award;  

Pick-ups - Dongfeng Rich-6 EV. With only a few dozens of units registered, the Dongfeng model is doing enough to beat the less than a handful Chinese counterparts and lead this neglected category. Of course, 2021 should be a whole different story... #US Monster Trucks

Europe June 2020

Record Month 

With the overall European market still recovering in June (-24% YoY), the European passenger plug-in market has returned to the fast track, having registered almost 93,000 registrations in June (+95%), a record performance, placing last month plugin share at 8.2% share (4.4% BEV), pulling the 2020 PEV share to 7.9% (4.3% for BEVs alone), more than doubling the 3.6% result of 2019 and getting mighty close to the disruptive 10% mark....

Will we see Europe's plugin market share end 2020 in two digits? Now THAT would be something to write about... 

With its production in full speed mode and orders pouring in like never before, the Renault Zoe was last month Best Seller, with its first 5-digit score, while also profiting from a limited Model 3 high tide, the Californian should only be able to go head to head with the Renault model in the Super-September month...Losing both to the flood of VW ID.3 that will happen then. But more on that later. 

Interestingly, we have two fresh faces in the Top 5, both PHEVs, that highlight the recent uptick of plugin hybrids, that shooted 226% last month, versus the more sedated 44% growth rate of BEVs, allowing PHEVs to now represent 45% of the total market.. 

Looking at June Top 5 Models:

#1 Renault Zoe – The record 10,342 deliveries in June are the result of the recent uptick in orders of the French hatchback, thanks to the recent incentive changes in a number of European markets, that added to the recent production ramp up at the Flins factory, allows the Renault EV to benefit from a perfect storm (> incentives; > orders; > production) and score consistent 5-digit performances in the coming months. Back to June, the main markets were France (record 6,012 units), Germany (record 1,448) and the UK (900, new record). For the coming months, expect the Zoe to win the next 2 Best Seller trophies until September, when a certain VW ID.3 lands... 

#2 Tesla Model 3 – Limited by the production shutdown in April, the high tide this time was limited to just 7,224 deliveries, the lowest end-of-quarter performance for the sports sedan in Europe. Expect the Californian to go back at 5-digit performances (15 to 18,000) in September. Back to June, the UK was once again the best market (by far) for the Tesla nameplate, with 2,517 deliveries, followed by The Netherlands (716 units), France (620) and Norway (527). 

#3 Ford Kuga PHEV - Before the Kuga PHEV (Euro-spec Ford Escape PHEV), Ford was something of a dead duck in Europe, with its plugin sales peak happening in 2015, with 1,308 units in the whole year, 1,230 of them being the Ford C-Max Energi, with the remaining years registering an average of 200 registrations...Not exactly stellar behavior, for what is still one of the major brands in Europe. But the Kuga has PHEV has changed all that, after scoring an impressive 1,629 units in May, June came and the compact crossover scored an amazing 3,684 registrations, earning its second consecutive Best Selling PHEV award and selling more in just one month, than Ford did in the previous 6 years (2013-'19)! The markets where the Dearborn plugin was in high rotation was Germany (807 units), Denmark (730 units!) and the UK (500). With the Kuga PHEV being heavily advertised and still in launch mode in a number of countries, expect it to become a regular feature here. 

#4 VW e-Golf – The evergreen e-Golf scored 3,037 units last month, with the veteran model seemingly immune to the long shadow of the ID.3, as Volkswagen milks everything it can from it, at least until its successor effectively lands, next September. Regarding June, the e-Golf main markets were Germany (1,310 units), Norway (707) and the Netherlands (299).

#5 Volvo XC40 PHEV – The compact Volvo continues to impress, after a looong production ramp up, that took the whole second half of last year (one would almost say that Volvo was playing with the recent CO2 rules...), this year things started to pick up quickly (well, if we exclude the pandemic-related period), with June registering a record 2,962 units. The biggest market for the Swedish (but Belgian-built) SUV was Norway, with 475 units, with Belgium buying 417 units of its home-made model, with the neighboring Netherlands also registering 374 units.

Ford Kuga PHEV: Best Selling PHEV

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the big news were the Renault Zoe consolidating its leadership, earning a 3,342 units advantage over the #2 Tesla Model 3, and with July helping the French model to win a few thousands more, it can have enough margin to sustain September high tide from the Model 3.

In the meantime, in (Super) September, the VW ID.3, should land with a bang, with the famous 30,000 1st Edition deliveries, that added to some 11,000 Zoe's and 17,000 Model 3's, it should provide 58,000 registrations for September in just 3 models! Add some 70,000 units from the remaining market, and we should have close to 130,000 units being delivered in one month! And some 11-12% market share! 

But back at the front runners race, with VW said to produce only 60,000 ID.3 this year, the best that the new German EV can aspire is this year Bronze medal, with Gold being discussed until the end by the two front runners, as both will be close in September, then the Zoe will win some edge in October, November should see both players keep their positions, and in December the Tesla Model 3 will profit from the high tide to go after #1.

If i had to bet my money, i would still go for the Model 3 as this year Best Seller, but the fact that it will have to run hard until the last days of the year was simply unimaginable just 6 months ago. 

In other news, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV recovered the 4th spot from the Audi e-Tron, with the German SUV now being threatened by the rising Peugeot 208 EV, now in #6, and just 272 units behind the big Audi.

But the Climber of the Month was the Volvo XC60 PHEV, that jumped 5 positions, to #9, thanks to a record 2,682 score in June, a new personal best for the midsize SUV, highlighting a very positive month for the Swedish maker, as it had several models shining, the S/V60 PHEV twins were up to #11, thanks to 2,010 deliveries, the midsizers best score since December 1813 2013, while the XC40 PHEV joined the table in #17, with a record 2,962 registrations, and even the XC90 PHEV barge flagship had its first four-digit score this year...

...And they were not the only ones hitting best ever performances, in a record month, personal bests were plentiful, like the Hyundai Kona EV reaching 2,745 units, thanks in no small part to the Czech-made units, its cousin Kia Niro EV also hit a record 2,342 units, and even the VW e-Up made had its moment, by delivering a record 1,850 units, while another Volkswagen Group veteran, the Audi A3 PHEV, had its best score (1,514 units) since December 2015!

Besides the aforementioned Volvo XC40 PHEV, we have another new face in the table, with the Ford Kuga PHEV jumping to #16, thanks to a record 3,684 deliveries, being the first Ford plugin to join the Top 20 Best Sellers table in Europe.   

Outside the Top 20, the ramp up of several models is starting to gain relevance, like the Mercedes A250e, with the German PHEV registering a record 1,471 units, or the Audi Q5 PHEV, that delivered 1,386 units, while on the BEV side, we have the Opel Corsa EV reaching a record 1,140 units, and on the other side of the scale, the Porsche Taycan had its best score yet, with 1,054 units. 

In the brands ranking, we have the most balanced race in the history of this ranking, with none other than 4 brands with 9% share (Tesla, BMW, Renault, Volkswagen), with Tesla hanging on to the throne by a thread (well, 489 threads...which are the number of units that separate Tesla from the #2 BMW), with only 1,155 units separating the #1 Tesla from the #4 Volkswagen, while Volvo (8%, up 1%) is rising, so we currently have five manufacturers running for #1...

...So if the models race is hard to predict, the brands trophy is casino gambling!

Finally, looking at the plugin rates of these brands, there are some interesting numbers, if Tesla is of course easy to see, 100%, the others show different pictures: BMW (13%) and Renault (10%) show moderate electrification rates, Volkswagen (6%) is below average, so the ID.3 is badly needed, while Volvo is the progressive force among these Legacy OEMs, with a 25% plugin rate, but there are other established makers with higher electrification rates, like Porsche (31%) or the French Luxury brand, DS (33%), with both profiting from the advantages of being small companies and therefore agile, proving once again what the Dinosaur theory says:

"In stable times, it's good to be big, because of scale, in disruptive times, it's good to be small, because you can change faster." 

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsizer sales are in another galaxy, and despite a slight fall in deliveries (-12% YoY) it won't have significant competition until next year, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (first 23 units in June) will remain a niche player and once the BMW iX3 lands, the German maker will be happy if it gets a third of sales of the current Model 3.

The real competition will only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it will also outsell it, so...Enjoy the throne while you can, Model 3.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is still #2, but has seen its sales drop by 44% YoY (its high price is hurting the British Sports SUV), while the #3 Mercedes EQC is slowly ramping up, having already beaten the i-Pace in June (694 units vs 647), but Mercedes needs to ramp up production even further, if it wants to beat the Jaguar and reach Silver.

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable, and while Tesla prepares the Model S & X  refresh (October?), the Porsche Taycan continues to ramp up deliveries, having delivered almost as much units in June (1,054), as the Model S & X did...counted together! (1,096) 

The Model S sales in 2020 are down 43%, while for the same period, the e-Tron sales jumped 103%, which says a lot...