Tuesday, August 4, 2015

Spain July 2015



Golf GTE lands in the Midst of a LCV Craze

This time we start the monthly roundup with Spain, with 346 units (A new record) sold last month, sales were up 41% regarding the same period last year, with the EV Share up to 0,19%, it is now closer to the 0,23% recorded last year.

In a small volume market like this, usually fleet deals have a big part on the shaping on the ranking and that's i thought happened when suddenly, three out of the four LCV's present (Kangoo ZE, Partner EV, Porter EV) registered record performances, with the french van not only leading this sudden rise, but it ended leading the July ranking with 63 units, a new monthly record for LCV's and the first time that a commercial van reached #1. 

Oh, and despite not beating their personal sales record, the Nissan e-NV200 was #3 in July with 29 units, making it two vans in July's podium, something unheard of until now.

Surprisingly, according to Renault Spain, only 30% of the Kangoo ZE registration were fleet sales, so this must have more to do with the recovery of the local economy (The general auto market growth rate is in the two digits), than fleet sales, so all in all, good news for Spain and also for their EV Market, this looks to be the year that yearly sales finally reaches the 2.000 units.


Outside LCV's, great result for the Golf GTE (34 units) in its first real sales month, allowing it to jump to #11, making it already the best selling plug-in VW.

The Renault Zoe had its best performance of the year, registering 27 units, considering that Renault has a 100-plus waiting list for the R240 version, it won't be surprising if the french sales rises a few notches in the next months.

Another impressive performance from the Audi A3, selling 21 units last month (A new record), promising other strong results in the near future.

On the manufacturers ranking, Nissan continues to lead (It has 29% Share), followed by Renault (22%), and Mitsubishi (13%). After three consecutive titles from Renault, it looks that Nissan is poised to finally win its first Best Selling Manufacturer title in Spain. The fact that the e-NV200 / Evalia are being assembled in Barcelona might have something to do with it....


PlSpainJulyYTD'15%'14Pl
1Nissan Leaf31221181
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV29157133
3
4
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
BMW i3
29
19
140
112
11
9
6
4
5Renault Kangoo ZE6310997
6Renault Twizy e) 158675
7Renault Zoe277762
8
9
Audi A3 e-Tron
Kia Soul EV
21
11
42
41
3
3
N/A
22
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
17
 19
20
21
22
22

24
25
26
26
26
Piaggio Porter EV
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Smart Fortwo ED
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
BMW i8
Volkswagen e-Golf
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Volkswagen e-Up!
Peugeot Partner EV
Tesla Model S
Volvo V60 Plug-In
Mercedes B-Class ED
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Mercedes S500 Plug-In

Porsche 918
BYD e6
Volkswagen XL1
Citröen C-Zero
Mitsubishi I-Miev
18
34
11
9
5
5
1

7
2
3
3



1
1

1

37
36
34
32
25
17
15
10
10
8
7
5
4
4

3
2
1
1
1
3
3
3
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0

0
0
0
0
0
N/A
N/A
8
N/A
10
13
11

18
20
14
9
N/A
14
N/A

22
14
N/A
22
18

TOTAL
346
1.237
100




Source: foro coches electricos







Monday, August 3, 2015

Battery Makers - June 2015

One strength of Build Your Dreams batteries is that they are not limited to passenger cars




BYD Edition 



- No surprises in the leadership, Panasonic is high above thanks to the success of battery-hungry Tesla, and with VAG plug-ins compensating for the Toyota sales drop, it's business as usual for Panasonic;

AESC, the joint venture between NEC and Nissan, continues to lose share (It has lost another 3% regarding last March), with the Leaf sales losing steam and with Nissan outsourcing batteries to LG in the future, the future is bleak for the Joint Venture;

LG Chem has started to recover ground thanks to the recent Renault Zoe sales growth, with the New Gen batteries coming in 2016 and Nissan contracting LG for the Leaf II batteries, it seems the future is once again bright for the South Korean manufacturer;

- If other look into the future for growth prospects, BYD is on a never-ending growth trend, with the Qin propelling sales, BYD batteries continue to win share, from 9% last March to the current 12%, doubling the share it had last year in only six months, BYD counts with the Tang SUV to continue to outrun the market, win even more market share and maybe reach #2 by the end of this year; 

Samsung has a partnership with BMW and FIAT, and with both auto manufacturers plug-in sales improving, Samsung is the leader of the "B" division of battery makers in a comfortable #5 with 6% share. 

 - In a fast growing market, Lithium Energy Japan (GS Yuasa / Mitsubishi) sales have barely risen, hampered by the limited sales growth of Mitsubishi plug-ins;

- Wanxiang, is the first of a series of small chinese battery makers at the bottom of the ranking, with BPP in #8 (BAIC provider), Epower in #9 and Tianneng in #10 (Chery provider), an interesting fact is that, all of them, BYD included, have already outsold last year deliveries in just six months.

PlBattery Makers
     1H '15 MWh
       2014
MWh
  %15%'14
1Panasonic1.9312.72639
38
2
3
AESC
LG Chem
705
569
1.620
886
14
12
23
12
4
5
BYD
Samsung
519
294
461
314
11
6
6
4
6Mitsubishi/GS Yuasa2414515
6
7Wanxiang157N/A3
N/A
8
9
10

Beijing Pride Power (BPP)
Epower
Tianneng
Others
139
119
84
176
121
N/A
77
N/A
3
2
2
3
2
N/A
1
N/A

TOTAL4.9347.167

Friday, July 31, 2015

World Top 20 June 2015 (Special Edition)

How high will it go?


Models - Tesla Model S #1 for the First Time

With 41.680 plug-ins sold in June, the global market for electric cars almost broke the 42.720 units sold last March, but even so, it is a 37% increase over the same month, which is nothing to be ashamed of, and with 204.256 units sold this year, the 400k sales by the end of the year looks like a given.

An important event this month was the first Monthly Best Seller Title for the Tesla Model S, after two months menacing the Nissan Leaf lead, it has finally achieved the top spot, ending a 18 month streak of consecutive #1's from the Nissan Leaf and marking the first #1 for a Tesla model in six(!) years

There were memorable sales from several models, like the Renault Zoe (2.498 units, year best), BAIC E-Series EV (1.506, year best), VW Golf GTE (1.705, new personal best), Zotye Cloud EV (1.214, new pb) or the BYD Qin, that with 4.015 units sold, not only secured another consecutive sales record (The 18th), but also managed to climb to #3 in June's monthly ranking AND is now menacingly close to the current bronze medalist Mitsu Outlander PHEV. Another impressive stat from the BYD plug-in, twelve months ago the Qin was selling 1.055 units, now it is over 4.000...«

Besides the mentioned Third spot race, there were other points of interest, the R240 fueled Renault Zoe got to climb one position to #6, changing positions with the VW e-Golf, while VW's PHEV had the opposite performance, climbing one position to #8. A curious fact, if we count the two Golf's together, VW's compact becomes the best selling european plug-in, not bad considering they only landed last year...







Comparing this enlarged Top 20 from the first half of this year, with the situations a year ago, we can envision several changes:



- The Nissan Leaf is still Number One, but lost 8% Share (20% then vs 12% now), and has its position now in danger;

- The Model S sales are up 7k, making it a credible contender to the Best Selling EV title;

- Chinese cars continue to evolve, not only the Qin is up several positions, but right now their lineup in the Top 20 has increased from 5 to 7;

- The german models have also increased their presence, if twelve months ago there were two (BMW i3 and VW e-Up!) representatives, the number has now doubled to four (BMW i3, VW e-Golf and Golf GTE, Audi A3 e-Tron;

- The Renault Zoe is experiencing a second coming this year, with sales up 143%, the same can be said about the veteran BYD e6, which has seen its sales double regarding last year. 

-  On the other hand, the two laggards here are two veterans, the Chevy Volt sales are down 33% and the Prius Plug-In does even worse, down 62% and losing 11(!) positions in the ranking.

Because this is a half year edition, the ranking includes cars from #11 to #20, where we can see some interesting facts, like the Audi A3 e-Tron already showing up in #12 (Will we see it in the Top 10 soon?),  #14 Ford Fusion Energi far away from last year performances (It ended in #8 last year), with two newcomers at the bottom in #17 we have the Fiat 500e and in #18 the Roewe 550 PHEV, both models have had a welcoming reception from consumers, let's see if their parent companies really get behind them and make them the sales hits they deserve to be.

Finally, a mention to segments not represented in the Top 20, the small Mitsu Minicab Miev Pick-Up continues to be the sole model in the Pick-up truck segment, with symbolic sales (105 units this year), in the Full-size Luxury (F-Segment), the Porsche Panamera (645 units) is still beating the Merc S-Class by a portion of 2 to 1 units, the BMW i8 (2.209 units) continues to put to shame the Cadillac ELR (614) in the Sports Car class and finally, the LCV's have an interesting race between the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia twins and the Renault Kangoo ZE, if the french vehicle never had real competition until last year, Nissan's van changed all that, the japanese is now ahead by 397 units (2.016 vs 1.619), but the french is on the rebound and in June alone it has shortened the distance by 175 units, so this particular race still has a lot to run until the end of the year.


PlWORLDJune2015%'14Pl
1Nissan Leaf4.71125.068121
2Tesla Model S4.99421.552113
3Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV2.11117.10482
4BYD Qin4.01516.47787
5BMW i31.56410.55456
6Renault Zoe2.4988.52849
7Volkswagen e-Golf1.1807.150421
8Volkswagen Golf GTE1.7056.604333
9Chevrolet Volt (1)1.3896.36234 -4k
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
BAIC E-Series EV
Zotye E20
Audi A3 e-Tron
Ford C-Max Energi
Ford Fusion Energi
Zotye Cloud EV
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Fiat 500e
Roewe 550 PHEV
Chery QQ EV
BYD e6
1.506
776
934
772
742
1.214
643
363
689
510
506
5.803
4.913
4.577
4.508
4.363
4.347
4.196
3.394
3.321
3.208
2.901
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
16
13
36
11
8
N/A
5
25
34
12
20

TOTAL41.680204.265


Manufacturers - BYD on Fire

In the Manufacturers ranking, unsurprisingly, BYD is going from strength to strength, selling 5.037 units, beating again Nissan in June and surpassing Mitsubishi in the YTD ranking, ending the month in #3.

Nissan continues in #1, but the competition is far closer than in June '14, the japanese carmaker lost 7% share since then and is now being closely followed by Tesla (Up one position to #2) and BYD. Mitsubishi, on the other hand, dropped two positions to #4 in just one month and it's better that the restyled Outlander PHEV rebounds their sales soon, or else the #5 Volkswagen could start to have them in its sight.

#7 Renault had a great performance last month, now being less than 1.000 units behind the #6 BMW, if the french manufacturer continues to push on sales, it might give BMW some headaches in the future.

Looking below the usual Top 10, we see some newcomers in the ranking: Audi in #12, Roewe in #15 and especially Mercedes in #17 appear in the Top 20 and promise to rise even further in the ranking, while others became notable absenses, like Volvo (#21) or Smart (#22). Kia is #23, but it has already sold more units in these six months than in the whole of 2014, so expect it to rise to a Top 20 position until year end.


PlWORLDJune2015%'14Pl
1Nissan4.95527.084131
2Tesla4.99421.552113
3BYD5.03720.409107
4Mitsubishi2.57319.39392
5Volkswagen3.17515.402811
6BMW1.99113.12769
7Renault3.39612.25668
8Ford1.6669.71955
9Zotye1.9909.263513
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Chevrolet
BAIC
Audi
Toyota
Geely-Kandi
Roewe
Fiat
Mercedes
Porsche
Chery
JAC
1.627
1.523
950
643
1.074
698
363
1.036
556
986
1.015
8.192
5.892
4.624
4.212
4.097
3.461
3.394
3.382
2.936
2.696
2.591
4
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
4
15
24
6
10
21
18
23
17
12
22





(1) - Includes Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera;


Thursday, July 30, 2015

Japan June 2015

Mitsu Minicab Miev Truck: Best Selling Electric Pick-Up Truck. In the World. Respect.

Waiting for Better Days

Another negative month (The third in a row), with sales in June down 49% YoY, and only 11k sales YTD, you have to go back three years to see such low numbers in this market.

Looking at the YTD models ranking, the positions are stable, with the Leaf once more in #1, with sales down just 34% regarding March '14, while the #2 Outlander PHEV in Japan was down 87%(!), to just 221 units. Mitsu is hoping the restyled plug-in SUV can rebound sales and end a 16 month leadership of the Nissan Leaf. Hopefully the new Outlander can sign the beggining of a recovery soon...    

Looking at the brands ranking, Nissan (50% Share) has a large advantage over Mitsubishi (32%), and is most certain to win the manufacturers title for the fourth time, the third in a row (Nissan won in 2011, 2013 and 2014).

Pl
Japan
June
  2015
     %Pl '14
1Nissan Leaf8935.49148
1
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV2212.92726
2
3Toyota Prius Plug-In e)1259909
3
4BMW i3 e)1006005
6
5Tesla Model S e)253643
7
6
7
8
9
10
10
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Mitsubishi Minicab Miev
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
Mit. Minicab Miev Truck
Honda Accord Plug-In e)
BMW i8 e)
59
51
50
19
5
5
341
294
270
105
30
30
3
3
2
1
0
0
4
5
N/A
8
9
10

TOTAL1.55311.442100

e) Estimate




Source:http://evn.blog.eonet.jp; http://samochodyelektryczne.org/

Tuesday, July 28, 2015

Markets Roundup June 2015

The (Pure) Electric Star


BEV vs PHEV

Many people have asked for a breakdown between plug-in hybrid and pure electric sales, here it is a small report regarding the most representative markets and their evolution since 2012.




2015 2014 2013 2012
Market BEV % PHEV % BEV % PHEV % BEV % PHEV % BEV % PHEV %
World 62 38 62 38 57 43 50 50
USA 63 37 55 45 49 51 27 73
Japan 63 37 53 47 55 45 53 47
France 84 16 94 6 95 5 94 6
Norway 79 21 90 10 94 6 93 7
Germany 55 45 75 25 85 15 86 14
Netherlands 17 83 23 77 15 85 22 78
China 61 39 72 28 90 10 89 11
UK 36 64 54 46 78 22 67 33
Italy 82 18 91 9 89 11 97 3
Canada 73 27 58 42 51 49 30 70
Switzerland 75 25 71 29 88 12 71 29
Sweden 53 47 35 65 48 52 45 55
Belgium 47 53 69 31 75 25 79 21
Denmark 97 3 99 1 99 1 97 3


It is easy to see that for the moment pure electric are resisting quite well to the announced take over from plug-in hybrids, in fact, the rise of Tesla has been a boon for BEV's, just compare the 2012 global numbers with the current ones.

Looking closer to some markets, it is curious to see that the US market and Canada went from Volt PHEV predominant to (Tesla) BEV prevalent.

The other way around ocurred in the UK and Belgium, in 2013 three out of four plug-ins were pure electrics, now PHEV's are the best sellers in these markets.

The PHEV champion continues to be the Netherlands, with plug-in hybrids steady between 75-85% Share, while Denmark is all for pure electrics, with PHEV's only able to grasp 1 to 3% share.












Trends in the G8 


China is continuing to score record performances (12.810 units in June, 0,46% EV share vs 0,25% last year), with new cars showing up almost every month, last month the Chinese EV Market was only 103 units away from setting a new all time global monthly sales record, by the way, for the first time that the asian giant surpassed the US in the YTD sales (54.665 for China vs 54.177 for the USA).


The French market is also growing, it is now firmly above the 1% barrier, while the UK and Germany continue their way up, both with double digit growth rates.

The two EV champs, Netherlands and Norway, also had positive months, with the EV Share (5,94 % and 23,22% respectively), keep on being the envy of everyone else.

The only laggards on this club are the USA (0,64% this year vs 0,73% in '14) and Japan, the asian market is plunging to values of 2012 and there doesn't seem to exist signs of hope in the short term, if Japan was the Third largest EV Market in 2014 (And #1 in 2010), now is just...Seventh.

If the japanese EV sales continue to fall, this G8 could lose a member and change the name again to G7.


Forecasts in the G8

Early this year, i made some forecasts regarding this year, let's see how they stack up against the results in the first half of the year:

USA - 150.000 units/year, Leaf #1; 

Given sales are at 54.000 and the second half of they year has always stronger sales, i think the numbers can end up a tiny bit higher than the 130K, the original number now seems too optimistic. Tesla is #1 for now, but with the manufacturer focusing on getting the Model X just right, the Model S might get a production slowdown, which might mean that the leadership could end up on Nissan Leaf's lap;



China - 120.000 units/year, Qin #1.
Year Two for this market, sales continue to go above expectations, the montlhy numbers are now consistently above the 10K area, with new players coming in, new record sales are expected, so i wouldn't be surprised if sales passed the 130K line by the end of the year. The Best Selling Plug-In in China this year is and will be the Qin, no doubt about it.
Japan - 32.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

The second semester is usually better in the Japanese EV market, but even so, with sales around 12K, it will be hard even to be close of this forecast, the japanese EV market is losing strength and there's no one in the short term capable of lifting it up. As for models, the Leaf is some 2.000 units above the Outlander, so it has a safe margin;



Norway - 25.000 units/year, Leaf #1.
What else can we say about this market? It just keeps on pushing bounderies, year after year, month after month. With 17K sales this year, the original forecast now looks small compared to it, better to update it to some 40K. As for models, big miss here, not only the Leaf if out of the leadership, but it's down to Third, surpassed by the VW e-Golf (Leader) and the Tesla Model S (Runner-up);



France - 19.000 units/year, Zoe #1;

Sales are at 12.000 units, but with the ever-increasing sales upwards trend in France, i believe that the forecast not only will be beaten by a long shot, but the 30K hallmark is possible. Zoe is #1, of course, nothing new here;

Netherlands - 19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

A welcome surprise, with sales at 12.000 units in the first half of the month, i think the 25K area can be achieved with relative ease. The Outlander PHEV was outclassed by the Golf GTE, and it looks the trend won't change in the second half of the year;


Germany - 20.000 units/year, German Car #1;

In this Year Two of the German Electric Car, sales continue to grow at a steady pace (10.000 units this year vs 6.000 in 2014) so the 20K shoud be achievable. A surprise in the models leadership, the Outlander PHEV is leading the pack, followed by three domestic models (VW Golf GTE, BMW i3 and Audi A3 e-Tron), each of them looking to dethrone the auslander;

UK - 20.000 units/year, Outlander PHEV #1.

Another Year Two, sales continue to grow, with numbers already in the 15K area, so i wouldn't be surprised if sales reached  some 30K by the end of the year. The Mitsu Outlander PHEV continues to be the Best Seller by a long shot, doubling sales of the #2 Nissan Leaf.


Global EV Share leaders 

1. Norway - 23,22% (14,49% a year ago)
2. Netherlands - 5,94% (4,58%)
    California - 2.8% (3.2%)
3. Hong Kong - 2,58% (0,46%)
4. Sweden - 2,16% (1,52%)
5. Iceland - 2,04% (2,71%)
6. Switzerland - 1,42% (0,75%)
7. Denmark - 1,24% (0,88%)
8. France - 1,19% (0,91%)
9. UK - 1,01% (0,56%)


Besides these, EV Shares are up in Germany (0.60% vs 0.44%), Belgium (0.73% vs 0.44%), as well as Ireland (0.47% vs 0,27%) and Portugal (0,35% vs 0,25%).

There are also big EV Share dips, besides the aforementioned case of Japan, Estonia is also down sharply, this year it has just 0,35% Share, when last year ended with 1,57%. Does anybody know the reason for this sales freeze in the baltic country?




Friday, July 24, 2015

Europe June 2015 (Top 30)

A Rising Star?

Zoe Edition

With some 16.100 units, the European EV market had its second best month ever, with an 80% improvement YoY, with the 79k sold in the first half of the year, it looks that last year record result (100k) will be achieved by next August. Not bad, eh?

Looking at the monthly models ranking, the Renault Zoe made a brilliant result, selling 2.487 units (Year Best), almost reaching the #2 Nissan Leaf in the YTD Chart.

As for the rest of the monthly ranking, both the Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf had positive YoY results, making three BEV's in the Top 5, while VAG's plug-in stars continue to impress: Both the Golf GTE and A3 e-Tron hit new personal records (1.705 units for the first, 931 for the second), meaning both will be major threats for the established players in the near future.

Final mention for the good performance of the Renault and Mercedes models, if the Zoe was #1 for the first time this year, both the Twizy and Kangoo ZE also hit year best performances, while on the german side, the B-Class continues its slow but steady sales increase (Record 363 units sold) and the C350e Plug-in Hybrid (363 units, a new record) was just 30 units below the D-Segment leader, the V60 Plug-In, and now looks ready to take on the swedish and become the leader in that niche.

PlModelSales  
1Renault Zoe2.487
2Tesla Model S2.099
3Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1.806
4Volkswagen Golf GTE1.705
5Nissan Leaf1.468

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Golf GTE climbed another step, it is now #5, switching positions with its e-Golf brother, the Renault Kangoo ZE also climbed one position to #11, dropping the VW e-Up! to #12, considering that the german city car already lost six positions regarding last year, it would be a good idea for Volkswagen to reconsider the price and provide a healthy rebate to it.

In the second half of the ranking, the Kia Soul EV jumped four positions to #14, thanks to a record month (373 sales), the Merc B-Class ED also took the time to climb, up two positions to #15, the same number of positions that it's poshier brother C350e climbed, up from #21 to #19....

The Loser of the Month award went to the BMW i8, down four positions from #14 to #18, selling just 111 units, its worst result in 10(!) months...

Looking at the brands ranking, Volkswagen's armada (Five models, the largest lineup) recovered even more ground to the leader Mitsubishi, both brands are separated by just 232 units in the YTD ranking and it looks that July will witness VW conquering Europe's EV Manufacturers Throne.

As for the Third Place, Renault distanced itself from its japanese cousin, Nissan, now a thousand sales away.

We now have an enlarged version of the ranking, covering the 30 best-selling EV's in Europe, allowing us to welcome the Mercedes S500e PHEV in #26, the Ford C-Max Energi in #27, or to salute the return to our radar of the Opel Ampera (Yes, it's still barely alive), in #30. 

PlEuropeJune2015%'14Pl
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1.80613.712171
2Nissan Leaf1.4688.633112
3Renault Zoe2.4878.479113
4Tesla Model S2.0997.38294
5Volkswagen Golf GTE1.7056.604822
6Volkswagen e-Golf 8875.63279
7BMW i37204.73865
8Audi A3 e-Tron9314.554619
9Volvo V60 Plug-In4172.40237
10Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia1841.614212
11Renault Kangoo ZE4151.61128
12Volkswagen e-Up!2741.59526
13
14
15
16
17
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Kia Soul EV
Mercedes B-Class ED
Renault Twizy
Smart Fortwo ED
327
373
363
239
177
1.486
1.294
1.146
1.138
1.132
2
2
1
1
1
28
23
29
11
10
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
BMW i8
Mercedes C350e Plug-In
Peugeot iOn
Bolloré Blue Car
Citröen C-Zero
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Toyota Prius Plug-In
Mercedes S500e Plug-In
Ford C-Max Energi
Goupil
Peugeot Partner EV
Opel Ampera
111
387
149
90
91
53
40
38
44
90
38
26
15
1.116
760
571
477
428
404
324
318
308
224
210
156
150
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
15
N/A
21
13
20
17
18
14
31
N/A
24
25
16

TOTAL16.10078.937