Wednesday, May 22, 2019

Russia April 2019 (Draft)

Resultado de imagem para Jaguar i-Pace in russia

Porsche and Jaguar Land Rover take over in growing market

The Russian PEV Market started the year smashing records, with 331 units so far this year, sales are up three-fold, and even the PEV Share started to move the needle... to 0.1%. But hey, you've got to start somewhere, right? 

Much of this has to do with local entrepreneurs doing the heavylifting, so a big thumbs up to them, as they are decisive in sparking dormant EV markets

Until last year, Tesla had been leaving the rest of the (few) EV competitors behind and earning the local trophies, but in 2018 things changed, with the Cayenne PHEV winning the Best Seller trophy, while closer to the end of the year, Land Rover landing their PHEV models, while the Jaguar i-Pace delivered its first units in December, so the picture today looks quite different from what we used to see here, with no Tesla in the podium, something unheard of since 2014, while the German Sports SUV continues in front, but this time both Range Rover models are relatively close to the leader, so there might be some changes until the year end.

Looking outside the podium, the Jaguar i-Pace is #4, beating both Tesla models and being the Best Selling BEV this year. 

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, this is a definetely a PHEV-friendly market, with 78% of plugins being plugin hybrid and only 22% BEV.

Porsche Cayenne PHEV
LR Range Rover Sport PHEV
3LR Range Rover PHEV146419N/A
4Jaguar i-Pace1049157

Disclosure: There are estimates on the numbers, so do not take these numbers as carved in stone.

Tuesday, May 21, 2019

Ireland - April 2019

Resultado de imagem para Kona EV ireland

Hyundai takes over in red hot market

The Irish PEV market is known for its love for the Nissan Leaf, a seven times (2011/12/14/15/16/17/18) winner of the Best Seller trophy, but it seems in 2019 the Nissan crown is in danger, with the Hyundai Kona EV leading the pack since the year started, with both models now separated by 44 units. 

This is happening against the backdrop of a hot market, with sales jumping 216%(!) this year, to 2.460 units, leading to a PEV share of 3,4% (4,4% in April), more than doubling the 2018 result.

If the top 2 models are in a race of their own, preparing to shatter the all-time yearly record around summertime, the Kia Niro PHEV, the current Best Selling PHEV, is in the 3rd spot, with 174 units, running ahead of the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (122 unis), Renault Zoe (115), BMW i3 (107) and the heavyweight Range Rover Sport PHEV (106).

Below the top spots, a reference for the VW e-Golf, that registered 30 units in April, winning April's Bronze Medal and allowing it to jump to #8, while the Tesla Model S had a strong start of Q2, with 9 deliveries, allowing it to reach #13, and the recently landed Audi e-Tron joined the ranking, in #20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Hyundai (30%) is also leading, ahead of the previous ruler Nissan, now with only 25% share, while BMW is 3rd (8%), with Kia (7%) not far off.

Saturday, May 18, 2019

Global Top 5 - Mid Game bet - April 2019

1. Tesla Model 3 - 70k

2. BYD Yuan EV - 31k

3. Nissan Leaf - 26k

4. BAIC EU-Series - 24k

5. BYD e5 - 19k

On the manufacturers ranking, BYD (93k) is still ahead of Tesla (87k), but the gap is getting smaller.

Friday, May 17, 2019

Germany April 2019

Resultado de imagem para Mercedes E300de

Porsche, Mercedes and Smart shine

The German PEV passenger car market continues on the right track in April, having registered 7,771 units, with BEVs growing at a faster pace (+50% YoY), than PHEVs (+14%), contributing to an all-electric share in 2019 of 67%, far above the 2018 result (53%). 

With the mainstream market stagnated (-3%), the PEV Share was at
2.5% in April, with BEVs alone hitting 1.5%, leading to a YTD plugin share of 2.5% (1.5% BEV).

Looking at April Best Sellers, the Renault Zoe managed to outsell the Tesla Model 3, that remained in chill mode throughout the month, after a Ludicrous March, the American sedan had to be contented with the 4th spot, losing out to the aforementioned Renault model, as well as the #2 BMW i3 hot hatch and the evergreen #3 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. 

But the surprise of the month came in #9, with the Porsche Panamera PHEV scoring 291 units, a new record for the Porsche nameplate, after the WLTP hiccup, it seems the German Sports Sedan is back on top of its form, something that provides good signs for the career of upcoming Porsche Taycan.

Renault Zoe
BMW i3
 Mit. Outlander PHEV
Tesla Model 3
 VW e-Golf

The German PEV market is known for close races and constant changes, and last month was no exception, first of all, the Tesla Model 3 is still the leader, but the Renault Zoe is just 43 units behind, so it will be an interesting race to follow in the coming months. 

Also, the BMW 225xe A. Tourer and Hyundai Kona EV were up one spot, to #6 and #7, respectively, while another BMW, the 530e (329 registrations, year best), also won one position, now in #10.

The Daimler Group had a positive month, with the Mercedes E300e/de PHEV jumping to #14, thanks to 284 deliveries, the taxi model best result in 15 months, while both Smart models climbed in the ranking, with the Fortwo EV climbing one place, to #8, thanks to 428 deliveries, while its (slightly) bigger brother Forfour EV  jumped three spots, to #12, thanks to 280 registrations, both scoring Year Best performances in April.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the record 85 deliveries of the Jaguar i-Pace, with the British Sports-Crossover-SUV-Thingy, now in #22, just 24 units from knocking on heaven's door the Top 20.

In the brands ranking, BMW (18%, up 1%) is the leader, with Tesla in the rear view mirror, with 14% share (down 2%), ahead of the #3 Renault (11%, down 1%).

Outside the podium, we have Hyundai and Mitsubishi, both with 7% share.

Tesla Model 3 & the ICE competition

 Mercedes C-Class
Audi A4
BMW 3-Series
Audi A5
BMW 4-Series
Tesla Model 3

One of the question marks around the Model 3 in Europe, regarded the impact that it was going to make on this side of the Atlantic, will it disrupt the PEV and ICE sedan market in the same way that it is doing in the US, or will it be more subdued, because it is playing away from home.

The answer is now being written, comparing the Model 3 full year deliveries against its midsize premium competitors, we can see that the local heroes are still significantly ahead, with only the BMW 4-Series close to be surpassed.

Nevertheless, in a backdrop of falling sales (midzise cars are down 11% YoY), the Tesla nameplate performance is impressive, considering that the car has given a couple of months of advance to the competition in the beggining of the year.

Also interesting to see, not all models are being affected in the same way by the arrival of the Model 3 and the overall category falling sales, while the Audi A4/A5 and BMW 4-Series are experiencing two digit drops, the Mercedes C-Class sales are flat, with the Merc model surpassing the Audi A4 and becoming the class best Seller. 

This confirms what we have seen in other markets, with Mercedes resisting well to the Model 3 landing, while BMW and Audi have been suffering.

Thursday, May 16, 2019

Norway April 2019

Resultado de imagem para Model 3 norway

BEVs up, everything else, down.

Last month, BEVs registrations were up 25% YoY, despite the overall market being down (-20%), with every other fuel source dropping, which lead to a significant BEV (40%) share, a big departure from the 25% of April '18. 

In this context, the current 58% PEV share in 2019 should grow to over 65% PEV share this year, with peak months possibly reaching 75%. 

The fuels mix is showing BEVs as the standard choice (40%), while every other fuel is falling significantly, like petrol dropping to 20% share (26% a year ago), or diesel being down to 18%.  Even PHEVs are down significantly, to half of what they had last year, with their share in April being just 10%.

So, this is what disruption looks like…

Looking at last month Top Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 was in chill mode last month, delivering just 720 units, allowing the VW e-Golf to be April's Best Seller, with 911 registrations, the nameplate best result in the last 6 months.

Outside the podium, the Audi e-Tron stayed in the 5th spot, with 371 deliveries, just ahead of the Jaguar i-Pace (350 units).

Looking at the 2019 ranking, after the seismic changes in the previous month, things were much more quiet this time, with the most important position change happening just in the 7th position, with the Jaguar i-Pace surpassing the Hyundai Ioniq Electric. 

Elsewhere, Volvo had a great month, with 3 out of the 4 models climbing in the ranking, with the XC60 PHEV up one spot, to #11, thanks to 248 registrations, a new year best, while the XC90 PHEV and the new V60 PHEV also climbed in the ranking, to #16 and #17, respectively. 

Finally, the #19 VW e-Up! (105 units, new year best) was up one position, to #18, surpassing the off-peak Tesla Model S, while in #20 we have a new (old) face, with the passenger version of the Nissan van e-NV200 showing up, this being a rare accasion to see this nameplate in the Top 20.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, Tesla is uncontested leader (27%, down 3%), being followed by the previous leaders Volkswagen (12%, up 1%) and BMW (11%), while Hyundai and Nissan, both with 9%, are trying to reach the podium.

If the 2019 title seems already attributed, in 2020 i guess only Volkswagen will have a shot at displacing Tesla from the lead, and that assuming the ID hatchback production ramp up goes smoothly.

Hard times for Tesla's competition.

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

With the PEV share at 50%, the plug-in market is merging with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, we have 8 BEVs in the Top 10 and 1 PHEV (this time the honour goes to the Volvo XC60 PHEV), in the Top 10, with 1 HEV (Toyota RAV4 Hybrid, 247 units) preventing this to be another 100% plugin ranking, but the hybrid in question was relegated to a secondary place, as it was only #9.

I guess the writing is on the wall: Having hybrids (or even plugin hybrids) doesn't cut it anymore, now it is "Go BEV, or go home"

Wednesday, May 15, 2019

Sweden April 2019

Resultado de imagem para tesla model 3 sweden
"After the all the rough and tumble play of March,
 nothing like some fika time in April, to recover the energies…"

Time for fika

In Sweden, the local plug-in market was up 44% YoY, to 3.059 registrations, with BEVs in particular jumping 271%, placing the PEV share at 10%, with BEVs alone having 5% share, dropping slightly the 2019 plugin share to 12%, still a big improvement over the 8% of last year. 

Meanwhile, the mainstream market continues sliding, dropping 12% last month, with the WLTP blues seemingly having no end in sight.

Has Sweden hit peak-ICE? It seems so, at least.

Now about charging infrastructure...It is badly needed, especially for long trips, without it, PHEVs will still be around for a while.

Right now buyers are running away from fossil-fueled vehicles, with diesels at 39% share last month, with a stampede-like movement into plugins, and BEVs in particular, but because BEVs are still model/production constrained, it seems many people prefer to buy a PHEV, or wait in line for a BEV, than to buy/lease another ICE-based vehicle.

This is starting to become a trend, once a market is regularly at over 10%, the mainstream market starts to suffer and decline, as people move away from regular petrol/diesel vehicles.

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the Tesla Model 3 repeated the previous month win, although this time the race was closer, with the #2 Kia Niro PHEV only 144 units behind.

Another Kia, the Optima PHEV, closes the ranking, with 289 registrations, most of them station wagons, proving that Tesla's choice for a sedan body is costing it sales in Europe, and in this particular case, in Sweden, a wagon-friendly market.

Tesla Model 3
Kia Niro PHEV
Kia Optima PHEV
Mit. Outlander PHEV
Renault Zoe

On the 2019 ranking, there is not much to talk about, on the top positions, the Tesla Model 3 is looking to catch the leader Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (maybe it get there in June?), followed by two Kias, with the Niro PHEV in 3rd, and the Optima PHEV in 4th.

The surprise of the month was the Tesla Model S,jumping three spots, to #14, thanks to 90 deliveries, a new year best, that is all more surprising once you realize it was made in the first monh of the quarter, usually a slow month for Tesla. 

In the last places of the Top 20, the #19 VW e-Golf scored 52 deliveries, the model best score this year. It seems the soon-to-be-departed EV still has some tricks up its sleeve.

The Audi e-Tron joined the Top 20, in #20, thanks to 43 deliveries, making it April's best selling full size SUV. And with less than 80 units separating it from the Volvo XC90 PHEV, it should be an interesting race to see who wins the category 2019 title.  

In the manufacturers ranking, Kia is in the lead, with 23% share (down 2%), with Volvo (18%) now in Second, followed by Mitsubishi (14%, down 2%) and Tesla (14%, up 1%), with both discussing the last podium seat.

Tesla Model 3 and the ICE competition

Volvo S/V60
VW Passat
Mercedes C-Class
Tesla Model 3
BMW 3-Series

After a thunderous arrival in March, the Tesla Model 3 also made na impact in the midsize car category, already showing up in #4 on the 2019 category ranking, with the Second Place in its range of possibilities. Of course, the Volvo S/V60 series leadership is out of the equation (quite naturally, i would say, i mean, its a Sweden).

In #5 we have the BMW 3-Series, that needs desperately the 330e version to avoid the sales bleeding…And let's not even mention the Audi A4, the lamest duck of them all.

A bit off-topic, but the 3rd best selling full-size car, the BMW 5-Series, registered 1.419 units this year, while the leader Mercedes E-Class registered 1.810 units, so this is one of those markets where the Model S numbers should grow significantly, as there is plenty of room for it.