Thursday, January 14, 2021

France December 2020

 


A future star lands in a record market (19% share!)

If the overall automotive market had a horrible 2020 (-26% YoY), with the 1.7 million units of this year being the lowest result since 1975, plugin sales continue steaming hot, with sales jumping four fold regarding the same month of 2019, with PHEVs (up 5-fold, to 15,168 units) growing faster than BEVs (20,734 units), allowing them to have a 42% share among plugins in December, another impressive result in this traditionally BEV-friendly market, and above the 40% share they ended in the whole year. 

These disruptive numbers are also reflecting on the plugin share, as last month it reached a record 19% (11% BEV), pulling the final 2020 share to 11% (6,7% BEV), a far cry from the 3% of 2019.

Interestingly, the current market disruption is also benefiting HEVs, as they doubled their share this year from 5% to 10% share, so 2020 ended with 21% of the total sales coming from electrified models, up from 8% in the previous year, an amazing progression, while petrol lost 11% share in the last 12 months, from the 58% of 2019, to the current 47%, while diesel lost just 3% share, to the current 31%.

With the 2020 plugin share firm in the two-digit region, expect this market to be disrupted further next year. Let's say...20% by the end of 2021?




Looking at last month Best Sellers, if the winner was the usual Renault Zoe, below it, there was a surprise, with the Peugeot models taking the month off, as the French brand had already complied with the EU's 2020 CO2 rules, the 208 EV runner-up spot was up for grabs, and the taker of it was the VW ID.3, that scored a surprising 2,550 registrations, now, how much of them were self registrations in order to comply with the CO2 rules is anyone's guess, but looking through that angle, the same can be said about a lot of last month record performances...

But the most surprising performance in December belonged to the small Dacia Spring EV, that landed with 1,721 units, a new record, this result gains even more dimension when we realize these first deliveries months are destined to demonstration units and fleets, with regular deliveries to private buyers only expect to happen in Q3 2021...

With the small Dacia said to have an unbeatable price, the Chinese-built EV could be come a big success story in Europe (and Latin America? India? Africa?), as it breaks new ground price-wise, as it is expected to be more than 5,000€ cheaper than the current cheapest EV sold in Europe...  

Speaking of City EVs, it seems this category is the new hot stuff in France, with 3 representatives in the December Top 6, as not only the Dacia Spring EV won the Bronze medal, but the fresh Fiat 500e was 4th, with 1,545 units in only its 2nd month on the market, and the also recent Renault Twingo was 6th, with 1,353 units, a new record for the tiny French EV. And let's not forget the veteran VW e-Up, that scored a record performance in December, with 525 deliveries.

On the PHEV side, the market is less concentrated, so on this category there's only one model with a 4-digit score, with the Renault Captur PHEV registering 1,437 units, but nevertheless, there was plenty to talk about:

- Mercedes continued to push its PHEV models, in particular the SUVs, with all 3 of them hitting record scores (GLA - 596 units; GLC - 712; GLE - 490), as it ran until the last day of the year to comply with the 2020 CO2 rules;

- Same story with the Three-pointed-Star arch-rival, BMW, with the Bavarian maker reaching record results with their SUVs (X1 PHEV - 405 units; X3 PHEV - 660; X5 - 482), while its British affiliate Mini did the same with its Countryman PHEV crossover, that registered a record 414 deliveries. Now, how much of this is actual demand, and how much is CO2 compliance? Mmmm...discuss.

At the bottom of this Top 20, a reference to the record 511 deliveries of the SEAT Leon PHEV, with the spicy Spaniard beating its more corporate minded cousin, the VW Golf PHEV, that ended in #21, with 501 units, that nevertheless is a new record for the German model.

Outside this Top 20, a reference to the 318 registrations of the hatchback desguised as crossover Kia Xceed PHEV, so it seems this crossover between a Crossover and a Hatchback (a CCUV - Crossover Crossover Utility Vehicle?!?) has struck a chord among French PHEV buyers.





Looking at the 2020 ranking, the Renault Zoe continued its winning streak in 2020 (it is the Best Seller in France since 2013...), this time followed by the Peugeot 208 EV, that was somewhat disappointing in 2020, as i expected it to end closer to the Renault rival, but then again, who could tell the Zoe would almost double its 2019 score (18,817 units)?

And looking at the bright side, it was the first time since 2012 that a Peugeot model ended in the podium (the tiny iOn was 2nd then), so you got to start somewhere, right? 

The last position of the podium changed hands in December, with the Peugeot 3008 PHEV losing the Bronze medal to the Tesla Model 3, thus makig a fully BEV podium, while below them, the rising Renault Captur PHEV jumped to 5th, with the small Renault crossover now being the strongest candidate for the 2021 Best Selling PHEV trophy, which would grant Renault both BEV and PHEV trophies next year...Not bad, eh? 

The Climber of the Month was the VW ID.3, that came from below the Top 20 into #9, in the last stage of the 2020 race, which is a good start for the 2021 race, where the German hatchback will try to beat the Tesla Model 3 and become the Best Selling Foreign model in France. 

On the second half of the table, we have the Citroen C5 PHEV climbing two spots, to #13, while the #22 VW e-Up was the Best Selling City EV in 2020, a title that the veteran model should have for the last time in its possession, considering the slew of new models (Dacia Spring EV, Fiat 500e, Renault Twingo EV...), all with Top 20 ambitions in 2021.

Looking at the 2020 Best Selling Full size model, the honour went to the Porsche Cayenne PHEV, that with 2,157 deliveries, it beat the BMW X5 PHEV (1,867 units), while the category Best Selling BEV was the Audi e-Tron, with 804 registrations. 

Looking at the brands ranking, the leader was, as always, Renault, with 24% (down 1%), with the runner-up Peugeot (17%, down 2%) at a safe distance, while the last place in the podium was disputed by a long list of brands, with Mercedes (5%) taking the Bronze medal in the end.

Tuesday, January 12, 2021

Norway December 2020



Audi e-Tron 2020 Best Seller in 65% PEV market 


BEVs are becoming the norm in Norway, as they were responsible for 67% of the Norwegian market last month, up 301% last month, to 13.718 units, pulling the 2020 BEV share to 54%, while plugin hybrids, in the context of growing sales across Europe, registered 4.192 units, being responsible for 20% share of the overall market in December, which coincidentally, is the same as the 2020 score (20%).

Looking at the fuels breakdown, if plugins were up in December, the rest is falling quickly: HEVs had just 6% share of the market, petrol vehicles were down to just 3% share (it had 15% a year ago), while diesel had only 5%, while in the same month last year, the black fuel had 22% share...At this pace, regular ICE sales will disappear sometime next year!

Looking at December model sales by fuel, the Tesla Model 3 interrupted a streak of VW ID.3 wins, with 4.232 units, the sports sedan best result since March '19.

The surprise in this Top 5 was the Volvo XC40 EV jumping to 3rd in only its second month on the market, so we find ourselves in the need to add another 2021 Best Seller candidate, as the Belgian-Swede has proved it can not only outsell its relative Polestar 2, but also get in the way of the VW Group and Tesla front-runners.

A minor surprise comes from the Nissan Leaf, a model that scored 692 registrations last month, its best score in Norway since 2018.


Pl
Model
Sales  
1
Tesla Model 3
4.232
2
VW ID.3
2.303
3
Volvo XC40 EV
791
4
Nissan Leaf
692
5
Polestar 2
670


Looking at the 2020 ranking, if the Audi e-Tron took the Gold medal without a sweat, while the 2019 Best Seller Tesla Model 3 had to work hard in December to reach Silver, beating the VW ID.3 by just 16 units.

The Nissan Leaf also had a strong year end, climbing to #4, at the expense of the Hyundai Kona EV.

The Polestar 2 past through the unplugged Toyota squad and jumped into #10, thus making a fully pluggable Top 11 in Norway, and of those 11 models, only one, the #9 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV is not a BEV... 

On the second half of the table, the BMW i3 kept the Best Selling small EV title, while a mention is due to the Volvo XC60 PHEV, that thanks to 464 registrations, its best result in 26 months, it jumped 4 spots, to #15, while the Hyundai Ioniq Electric was up to #17. The new Ioniq 5 should be success story here...

We have a new face on the last place of this year Top 20, with the Toyota RAV4 PHEV joining the table in the last stage, with the fresh PHEV version of the Japanese SUV already outselling the respective HEV version...So, next year, another plugless model will be out of this table.

Outside the Top 20, the highlight was the aforementioned thunderous score of the Volvo XC40 EV, with 791 deliveries, while several other SUVs had great performances, like the BMW X1 PHEV (521 units) and X3 PHEV (255), the Jaguar i-Pace registered 517 units, a new record for the Sports SUV, while the quirky Mazda MX-30 continues to impress, by registering 494 units last month.

Looking at the overall manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (14%) won this year title, while below it, Toyota (9%, down 1%) secured Silver, followed by the #3 Audi (7%, down 1%), that managed to keep its podium position, despite BMW and Volvo (both at also 7% share) best efforts to beat Audi.

A step below, we have Mercedes and Tesla, both with 6% share.




Thursday, January 7, 2021

Netherlands December 2020

 


 

VW ID.3 shines in record month (72% Share!)


December had an amazing 30,860 plugin registrations, a 34% increase over the previous all-time record, set at the same month of last year, which itself was beating a 4 year old record.

This amazing result translated into a Norway-like 72% PEV (69% BEV) share last month, pulling the 2020 plugin share to 25% (21% BEV), well above the 15% of 2019 and the 6% of 2018, and this share gains even another dimension when we realise that BEVs represented 82% of registrations in 2020, and 96%(!) in December alone.

Of course, the higher taxation of BEVs in 2021 is the major reason for this December peak, but after the upcoming sales hangover in Q1, something this market is used to, expect things to pick up again around Q2/Q3, ending 2021 with another great result, pulling the plugin share well above the 30% mark.


 

Looking at last month best sellers, and comparing it to the last December peak, we now witness a much more democratic ranking, if in December 2019 the Tesla Model 3 represented over half of the registrations, last month winner, the VW ID.3, had just 20% of all plugin deliveries, and while last year there were only 4 models hitting four-digit scores in December (Tesla Model 3, Audi e-Tron, Nissan Leaf and Renault Zoe), this time there were 7 models, this is another sign of a maturing market, where choice expands at a faster rate than the market itself, leading to lower shares of the leading models and an increased balance between the players in the market.

Looking at last month Best Sellers, we should disclose first that December registrations are not very representative of the market dynamics, having more to do with the OEMs capability to allocate units to this market, than anything else.

Still, we should notice that Volkswagen did its version of a Tesla high tide and not only won the Best Seller title in December, with the ID.3, but also pushed all the available ID.4 units to this market, allowing the new compact crossover to end the month in 4th, ahead of another model from the German conglomerate, as the Audi e-Tron ended the month in #5, thus making 3 VW Group models in the Top 5.

Another surprising performance was the Hyundai Kona EV ending in 2nd last month, registering a record 4,441 units, dropping the Tesla Model 3 to #3, so it seems Hyundai's EV production has finally found room to able to comply with demand peaks. 

Just outside the Top 5, there were two good news for Volvo, with the fresh XC40 EV reaching #6, with 1,765 units in only its 3rd month on the market, while in #7 we have the honorary Volvo Polestar 2, with the Sino-Swede scoring a record 1,468 deliveries.

Funny enough, and truly amazing, is the fact that last month, the Top 7 best selling models in the overall market were all BEV! How long will it take for the yearly ranking to look like this?

Other models showing strong results were the #9 Fiat 500e, with 486 deliveries in its full sales month, while the Peugeot 208 and 2008 siblings both scored record results in December, with the crossover scoring 458 deliveries, while its lower riding relative had 479.

One surprising result were the 383 registrations of the #14 Chinese Aiways U5, while the SEAT e-Mii EV (349 units) and Skoda Citigo EV (302) continue ramping up deliveries, and finally, the #19 Mini Cooper EV also scored a record result, proving that among City EVs, range is not as important as in other categories.

On the PHEV side, we almost didn't had any model to mention, as the Best Selling model was the recent Renault Captur PHEV (289 units, new record), in a low 20th place, this is explained by the makers focus on delivering BEVs before the year end, and also the fact that some OEMs, namely, Volvo, were already complying in December with the EU's CO2 rules, so they decided to keep them an extra month and deploy them in early 2021, so they can already win early points for the 2021 compliance.

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the never ending slow ramp up of the Mercedes EQC, with the midsize SUV delivering a record 239 units in December, so we could have here another contender for a Top 20 position in 2021.





Looking at the 2020 ranking, the up-to-November leader Kia Niro EV had a steep fall, going from First to Fourth in just one month, being surpassed by the VW ID.3, that took the 2021 Best Seller award, but also by the Tesla Model 3, that won the Silver medal, and even by Kia's cousin, the Hyundai Kona EV, that took the Bronze medal from its hands.

Oher models that climbed positions in December were the Audi e-Tron, that jumped 6 positions, up to the 5th spot, while the Polestar 2 jumped 5 positions, to #7, but the Climbers of the Month were the Volvo XC40 EV and the VW ID.4, that came out of nowhere (in the case of the German, literally), and joined the table on the Top 10, with the Volvo EV ending in #9 and the new VW EV in #10.

On the second half of the table, the Peugeot 208 EV was up three positions, to #15, while looking at the 2002 Top 20 we notice another interesting trend: There are only 2 plugin hybrid models on the table, both coming from the Volvo stable...

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen (18%, up 4%) was the Best Selling maker, , followed  by Tesla (10%, up 1%) and Volvo (10%, down 1%).

Tuesday, January 5, 2021

Sweden December 2020

 

VW ID.3 Shines in Record month (49% Share!)


The local plugin market ended the year on fire, jumping 251% YoY, to an amazing 16.929 registrations, its second third 4th record performance in a row, with last month scoring a record 49% share for plugins (19% BEV), ending the 2020 PEV share at 32% (10% BEV), a significant jump over the 11% of 2019, and well above my prediction for this year ("North of 20% share"). 

This time both it was BEVs outpacing PHEVs, with these last ones jumping 222% in December, to 10.337 units, while BEVs (+310%!) had 6.592 registrations, with the plugin split in this year sales ending at 30% for BEVs and 70% PHEVs, with pure electrics dropping 9% regarding 2019, when they had 39% share. 

With plugin hybrids representing over 20% of the total market, maybe now's the time to reduce incentives for PHEVs? Another way, would be to set a minimum electric range for a PHEV to be eligible for subsidies...What do you think?

Looking at the remaining fuel sales in December, HEVs clocked 9% share, versus 5% a year ago, while petrol lost 26% market share(!), now at 24% (it was 50% 12 months ago), while diesel was down 15% in share, to just 18%.  

As such, with PHEVs having 30% of the total sales in December, plugin hybrids were the most popular drivetrain last month, a good sign for the year ahead, which begs the question: At this pace, will diesel will be död by 2022 and petrol in 2023?

Looking at last month Best Sellers, the VW ID.3 stole the show, with an all-time record for a single plugin model of 2.564 registrations in one month, winning not only the PEV Best Seller trophy, but also the leader status in the overall market!

But it wasn't the only BEV to shine, as the Tesla Model 3 ended the month in 3rd, thanks to the expected end-of-quarter high tide

With Volvo enjoying some deserved Jul holidays, after all, it had already complied with the EU's CO2 rules before December, it was time for Kia to shine, with two models in the Top 5, with the Kia Ceed PHEV beating its own record by delivering 636 units, while its stablemate Niro PHEV was #5, with 591 units.


Pl
Model
Sales  
1
VW ID.3 
2.564
2
Volvo XC60 PHEV
818
3
Tesla Model 3
710
4
Kia Ceed PHEV
636
5
Kia Niro PHEV
591


Looking at the 2020 ranking, the top positions remained the same, with Volvo doing a 1-2 win, with the Volvo S/V60 twins winning their first Best Seller title, while their higher riding sibling XC60 PHEV took Silver.

Interestingly, in 2019 the Swedish maker didn't had any model in podium...The 3 times winner (2016/17/18) VW Passat GTE also returned to the podium in 2020, after having dropped to #6 in 2019.

On the other hand, last year Best Seller, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, ended this year race in 9th...Yep, that's disruption happening.

In the last stage of the 2020 race, the Climber of the Month was the VW ID.3, that shooted 12 spots, from #17 to #5, thanks to a Tesla-like peak in December of 2.564 units, allowing it to displace the Tesla Model 3 from the Best Selling BEV throne, something few could predict a month ago.

On the second half of the table we have the BMW 330e climbing two positions, to #13, mostly thanks to the new Touring (station wagon) body, a must if you want to succeed in wagon-loving Sweden, while the Volvo S/V90 PHEV twins recovered the Best Selling full-size trophy in December, after a surprisingly slow month from the Audi e-Tron (has its demand peaked in Sweden?).

The small car category was far less interesting, with the Renault Zoe retaining its hold on the category, despite a significant increase in the number of competitors. 

The Hyundai Kona EV climbed to #18, thanks to a record 368 deliveries, and the
 good news on the BEV side haven't ended there, as the #17 Nissan Leaf registered its best result in 2 years, with 332 units, most of them being of the 62 kWh version, proving once again that deep discounts do help to move metal...

In December we received a fresh face in the table, with the Toyota RAV4 PHEV climbing to #20, thanks to a record 460 deliveries, and one wonders how high will the plugin Toyota rise in 2021. A Top 10 spot seems like a given, but can it go above it?

Outside the Top 20, we should mention the ramp up of Mercedes, with 4 models (E300e/de - 446 units; GLA250e - 106; EQC - 140; GLE350e/de - 246) scoring record deliveries, with the first of them ending the year in #21, while the last two have beaten their personal best by the #4th time in a row...#MercedesIsRising

But it's not only about the German maker, as there were other models shining, like the BMW X3 PHEV (317 units), or the Renault Captur PHEV (182), while the fresh Volvo XC40 EV had 177 deliveries last month.

Another long awaited model is the Skoda Octavia PHEV, that had 259 units in its first full sales month, and should become a strong candidate for a Top 20 spot in 2021, just like its Spaniard cousin, the recent Seat Leon PHEV, that is also running three-digit scores in its first months on the market.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volvo won the title, with 21% share (down 2%), thanks to the success of its PHEV lineup, while the two times winner (2018 & 19) Kia (18%, up 1%) this time had to settle with Silver, and the rising Volkswagen (15%, up 1%) closed the podium, well ahead of Tesla (6%, up 1%).




Thursday, December 31, 2020

Global Top 20 November 2020

 

 Tesla Model Y já tem preços e configurações / 0 aos 100 / Notícias em alta  rotação


Models: Small EVs shine in Record month


After a rough start of the year, the second half of 2020 has become a records fest, after a record September, last month brought another record score, with over 400.000 units, and expect December to perform yet another record, maybe above 500,000 registrations.

With plugin registrations going up 133%, the highest monthly growth rate in over 8 years, with both technologies running hot, with BEVs jumping 125%, to 289.000 units, while PHEVs jumped 155%, to a 125.000 units.

This brilliant result has allowed the YTD numbers increase the growth rate to +32% YoY, a step above the 2019 growth rate (+11%), so it looks 2020 will end up as a recovery year for plugins. 

With the overall automotive market in the red, added to another record month, the November PEV share jumped to a record 5.9% share (4.1% BEV), pulling the 2020 plugin share to 3.8% (2.6% BEV), and with the help of a great December, expect the final 2020 share to end north of 4%, well above the 2.5% of last year.

The future will depend much on the development of the pandemic and the seriousness of the economic crisis, but expect plugins to weather the storm better than the overall market, increasing its share on the way, to some 6-7% in 2021, and in 2022...The Disruption Zone, with two-digit scores. 

The BEV/PHEV breakdown stayed more or less the same, with the current standing at 68% BEV, 32% PHEV. 




The half tide mode Tesla Model 3 won another monthly Best Seller title, with over 39.000 deliveries, its best off-peak score ever, so expect the sports sedan to have a record result in December, while the rising star Wuling Mini EV scored a 33.094 units last month, its 5th record score in a row, with the tiny EV closing in to the leader, and expect the tiny EV to continue ramping up deliveries throughout December.

While the Model Y repeated the monthly Bronze medal, the surprise in this Top 5 is the appearance of the Great Wall Ora Black Cat, with almost 10.000 units, a new record for the City EV, highlighting the current main trend in China, the rise of city EVs. 



On the YTD table, the Wuling Mini EV shined once again, removing the Renault Zoe from the runner-up spot, earning it the Silver medal position, while making the tiny EV the strongest non-Tesla candidate for the 2021 Best Seller title, while the #4 Tesla Model Y will have to work hard in December to beat the French hatchback and reach the podium, as the 20.000 units difference seem almost insurmountable, with just one race to go.

Regarding other position changes, the VW Passat PHEV jumped two positions, to #9, followed by the Baojun E-Series, that was also up, to #10.

On the PHEV side, the favorite for the 2020 Selling trophy is the VW Passat PHEV, that thanks to strong results in both China and Europe, was last month Best Selling PHEV, and only a surprising score by the BMW 530e/Le twins in December will change the current chain of events. 

On the second half of the table, two more small Chinese EVs are on the rise, with Great Wall's Ora Black Cat jumping three positions, to #14, while the Chery eQ climbed to #18, and in #19 we now have the much antecipated Volkswagen ID.3, that should jump a few more positions in December, possibly ending the year in #15.

Finally, outside the Top 20, one model deserves a mention, with the rising #21 Li Xiang One (4.646 units in November, new record) looking to join the table in the last stage of the race, but for that to happen, it will not only need to recover the 1.300 units of advance that the #20 Peugeot 208 EV, but also keep a close eye on the high tide of the #22 Tesla Model X, which is some 1.200 units behind it and hope that the BYD Han EV (7.482 units in November, 4th record in a row!) doesn't show up on the rearviewmirror on last minutes of the race, as the flagship BYD is doing everything to join the table already in 2020.


Manufacturers: Chinese makers on the rise 


The mid-tide mode Tesla managed to win another monthly Best Seller title, but has seen the rising SGMW joint-venture cut the distance, wth the small EV maker scoring an amazing 41.793 score last month, allowing it to climb one position in the ranking, to #5, exchanging positions with Mercedes, but don't think the German maker wasn't pushing the pedal to the metal, as the 24.091 units it did in November represented its 5th record in a row(!), but it's just that SGMW is in a different league, and it should jump a few more spots in December, probably ending the year with the Bronze medal.

Back to Mercedes, of the German Three Marys (Audi, BMW, Mercedes), it looks to be the most dynamic in the present days, and with several models to launch in 2021, just BEVs, it will be the EQA, EQB and EQS, expect it to become a Top 5 member next month.

By the way, in a record month, there were record galore, 10 in this Top 20, to be exact, besides the aforementioned, the most relevants came from Volkswagen (27.756 units), that should have secured the runner-up spot for 2020 (Not bad for a Year Zero, not bad at all...), but also Great Wall, that registered 11.649 units, mostly thanks to their Cat Pack, allowing them to climb two positions, to #16, while Chery (re)joined the table, in #20, thanks to a record 7.927 units. 

Highlighting the Chinese brands good moment, SAIC climbed to #11, while  GAC was up to #14, with 7.556 units, a new year best for the brand. 

Interestingly, despite the recent launch (in some markets) of the RAV4 PHEV model, Toyota had the worst score of this Top 20, being inclusively beaten by niche makers, like Porsche and NIO. 

Toyota's potential to thrive in the plugin market is still there, but the window of opportunity is slowly closing down...It kind of reminds those young players that have everything to rise to the top, but then years go by, and they never seem to materialize the promises made in the past...

Looking at the ranking by OEMs, SAIC won in November, with 54.960 registrations, followed by Tesla (54.566 units), while the Volkswagen Group was relegated to 3rd, with little more than 52.000 units.




SGMW: SAIC + GM + Wuling, a joint-venture between Wuling, General Motors and Shanghai Auto, with the last one owning 50,1% of the joint-venture, the American maker having a 44% share, while Wuling has 5,9% of the joint-venture.

Tuesday, December 29, 2020

Europe November 2020



Record Month! 


Despite having the overall automotive market in the doghouse (-14% YoY), Europe's passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered a record 166,000 registrations in November (+198% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 16% share (8% BEV), helping numbers to rise 123%, to over 1 million units, pulling the market into the...Disruption Zone, as the 2020 PEV share crossed north of 10% mark (5.4% for BEVs alone), so we can say with some certainty that part of the fall on the overall market has more to do with the disruption provoked by plugins than Covid-related issues. So, let the games begin...

...And let's not forget that December should bring also another record month, so we should see some 15%-plus 20% market share in the last month of they year...

Looking back, imagine that in January i was feeling adventurous by predicting 6% plugin share at the end of this year....after all, 2019 ended with 3.6% (2.2% BEV), which was already over 1% above the 2018 market share (2.5% PEV share)...Oh, how times have changed!

So...Will we see the plugin share hit 20% in 2021?

BEVs are running fast (83.512 units, +182% YoY), but PHEVs are going faster (+217%), with these last ones hitting new record month (82,743) for the second time in a row, pulling the BEV/PHEV breakdown to parity between both technologies, although YTD, plugin hybrids are still below (47% vs 53% share) fully electrics.

Last month Best Seller was the Renault Zoe, that managed to beat the VW ID.3, but December should be all about the race between the Tesla Model 3 and the VW new EV, as i believe both models are going to have a deliveries high tide, with Volkswagen trying to out-Tesla the US carmaker.

This podium is also a sign that the plugin market is merging with the major trends of Europe's overall automotive market, as November's Top 2 (ID.3 and Zoe)  are the same as the longtime two Best Sellers in Europe (#1 VW Golf and #2 Renault Clio).

Looking at November Top 5 Models:


#1 Renault Zoe – November was another good month for the French EV, with 9,953 deliveries of the Renault model, with the maker going all in and milking its EV until the last drop, in order to keep five-digit scores until the end of the year and recover the European Best Seller title. Last month, the main market was Germany (4,287 units), followed by France (2,944), with Italy (555 units) and the UK (450) also helping along. In December, expect the Zoe to end in 3rd, behind the high tide Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3, but the 20,000 units advantage that it has collected throughout the year, should be enough to keep the YTD leadership and become the 2020 Best Seller in Europe. 


#2 Volkswagen ID.3 - The much antecipated German EV wasn't able to win the November trophy over the Renault Zoe, delivering just 8,496 registrations, which might look underwhelming, but then again, it could be Volkswagen downplaying in November, in order to have a surprise high tide in December, as i suspect it will happen. The first MEB-platform based EV had its main markets in Germany (2,439), the Netherlands (1,485), Norway (986), and Sweden (773). Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 for the December Best Seller title. 


#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Hyundai's star EV seems to have stabilized at 5,000-plus performances, as the 5,375 deliveries in November can prove. With the upcoming Ioniq 5 BEV  compact crossover said to be a small revolution in the EV World, one wonders if the Kona EV won't suffer from the new internal competition. Unless Hyundai lowers its price...But enough of futurology, and back to last month performance, Germany was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 2,474 deliveries, followed by the Netherlands (529 units), Norway (355) and France (344).


#4 Tesla Model 3 - Last years Best Selling EV in Europe delivered 5,014 units, which while is not a record for a second-month-of-quarter performance, is not too shabby either, meaning that the Tesla midsizer seems to have (finally!) found its cruise speed. The sports sedan main markets in November were Germany (1,617 deliveries), the UK (900 units), France (501) and Switzerland (356). Expect the Model 3 to have another high tide in December and win next month Best Seller title, but it will have to look over its shoulder and check where the VW ID.3 is, as the unassuming hatchback is looking to steal the show from the Californian in the last minute. 


#5 Mercedes A250e – Thanks to competitive pricing (for a Premium brand), usable electric range (64 kms / 40 mi WLTP), and even CCS availability, the compact Mercedes has become the star player in the PHEV field, with November registering 4,517 units, with its biggest markets being Germany (1,612 units), closely followed by the UK, with some 1,200 registrations, while France (443 units, new record) is the 3rd largest market at some distance of the first two. Will this be the 2020 PHEV Best Seller?




Looking at the remaining November Best Sellers, the BMW 330e was #6, with its second record score in a row, in this case 4,229 deliveries, most of them being the new station wagon body, a real no brainer in wagon-loving Europe, that others have already been doing for years (Volvo and Mercedes are just two examples).

In a record month, several models hit their personal bests, like the fresh (now in 8th Generation body) VW Golf PHEV, that scored 3,618 units, beating the nameplate's long running record score, set in December 2015, so expect the compact plugin hybrid to be a strong candidate to the 2021 Best Selling PHEV title, so we might even see Volkswagen collecting both the BEV and PHEV Best Seller titles next year... 

Another known model on the rise is the #12 Smart Fortwo EV, that scored a record 3,371 registrations in November, so despite the underwhelming specs, the tiny EV is growing fast, highlighting the latest trend in Europe: City EVs are rising, besides the Fortwo EV record score, its slightly longer sibling Forfour EV also hit a best ever performance (984 units), like the VW e-Up (3,318), while the new Renault Twingo EV (1,009) and Fiat 500e (1,285) are ramping up deliveries, with the Italian model in particular having potential to be Top 20 material.  

The Smart record performances highlight Daimler's rise to stardom, as the German Group continues to have records galore every month, with 7(!) Mercedes plugin models (B-Class, E-Class, CLA, GLA, GLE, EQC, EQV) hitting record scores. 

A reference also to the #19 Mazda MX-30, despite being imagined like a niche model, the truth is that as Mazda's only available EV, it will have to sell in large numbers, in order to lower the maker CO2-related fines, so the quirky crossover is being registered in surprising volumes, with November representing a new record, with 2,640 units. 

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 2,212 registrations of the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French carmaker already having the small 208 EV in cruise speed, now it's time to ramp up the electric crossover production, speaking of compact crossovers, FCA is ramping up the production of the Jeep Compass PHEV, having registered 1,466 units last month, while Volvo has finally launched the BEV version of its XC40 best seller, with 1,311 deliveries in its first month and Land Rover has done the same with the PHEV versions of the posh Range Rover Evoque (1,411 units) and family-friendly Discovery Sport (721).






Looking at the 2020 ranking, the podium positions seem already decided, so the big news is the jump to 6th of the VW ID.3, that should climb a few more positions in December, probably ending the year in #4, just in time to surpass its e-Golf antecessor. 

A secondary effect of the ID.3 rise, is that we now have a fully BEV Top 9, followed by 7 PHEV models, which makes the table look like there is an "A" League, made only by the best BEVs, and a "B" League, with the best PHEVs.

On the "B" League, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV managed to keep the category leadership, but it will be hard for the Japanese SUV to keep ahead of its most direct competitors in the last stage of the race, as the #11 Volvo XC40 PHEV (and #13 VW Passat GTE, and #12 Mercedes A250e, and #14 BMW 330e...) are all running at a faster pace than the veteran Japanese, so at least some of them should surpass the Mitsubishi SUV in December, and discuss between themselves the PHEV title in the final days of 2020. Should the Outlander PHEV lose the 2020 title, it will be an historic moment, as it will be the first time since 2012 that the Outlander isn't the Best Selling PHEV in Europe

Among them, the one i think will take the PHEV Best Seller title is the Mercedes A250e. Any other bets?

Looking at the remaining position changes, the VW e-Up was up one spot, to #18, while we have a return to the Top 20, with the Smart Fortwo EV showing up in #20.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (11% share, up 1%) has gained precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), that now is more concerned in keeping the 2nd position away from the #3 Mercedes (9%), that profits from its strong (and long) lineup to gain ground over the French brand.

Outside the podium, Tesla, BMW and Volvo, all with 7% share, are looking to join the podium in December, only Tesla has real chances to do so, thanks to the expected end of quarter high tide.







BEV D-Segment / Midsize category





Tesla's midsize sedan sales are in another galaxy, and although it has seen its sales drop a worrying 36% YoY last month, the December high tide should compensate it.

In fact, Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, at least until its Model Y sibling lands, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (1,336 units last month) seems to have already peaked out this year, and with expansion plans only set to be enabled in 2021, don't expect much more from the Sino-Swede.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it sells half of the Mercedes EQC...Which, by the way, has beaten once again its personal best, having delivered 2,343 units last month, so it seems the Mercedes midsize SUV slooow ramp up still hasn't ended, and should continue in the following months.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace profited from the new, cheaper, EV320 version, to jump its sales to 1,916 units, the Sports SUV best score in 23 months and a 89% jump YoY. It seems the Austrian-built Jaguar still has some tricks (ahem, lowering its outrageous high price to something more palatable...) up its sleeve to fight the newcomers. 



BEV E-Segment / Full size category





The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring 3,459 units last month, with its sales jumping 162% YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will this kind of growth rates will be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...With Audi already discounting its big EV, expect this moment to come soon.

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (2,151 units last month, a new record) accelerating its sales once again, the main interest layed on the 3rd spot, where the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (474 units) has managed to beat both flagship Teslas, with the Model X having 293 deliveries in November and the Model S some 287 units, with the higher riding Tesla witnessing a steep fall of 45% YoY, which should worry Tesla, as steep drops have been the norm for the big Teslas throughout the year, and while this is still a rarefied market, all it took was Mercedes to convert the Passenger version of a Van into electric drive, which basically it's what the EQV is, to beat both the Model S and X.

In 2021 there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), that have potential to beat the Porsche Taycan saleswise, making the 2021 race all the more interesting to follow, but should also render the Big Teslas even more irrelevant. Something needs to be done...