Thursday, January 17, 2019

Iceland December 2018

Resultado de imagem para 2018 nissan leaf iceland

19% Share in 2019, 32% in December!!!

Sales grew moderately in 2018 (+15%) this year, but because the mainstream market is dropping significantly (16% this year, and 46%(!) last month), the PEV shares are jumping through the roof, with December hitting an amazing 32% PEV share and the 2018 ending at a record 19%, a significant departure from the 14% from 2017, and the 2nd highest share in the world. 

Will PEV share hit 25% this year?

Considering the behavior of the other advanced EV market, Norway, is similar behavior, with moderate PEV growth and a sales drop in the mainstream auto market, we are starting to see a trend, that can be replicated in other markets, as once markets hit some 10% market share, plugin sales slow down to 20-30% growth rates, while at the same time, the mainstream market starts to shrink, as regular buyers come to realize that fossil fueled vehicles are becoming dinosaurs.

Looking at this year Best Sellers in the Models ranking, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV won another title, its 3rd in a row, with a record 999 units, confirming its popularity in this market, while the Nissan Leaf got yet another runner-up spot, its Third in a row. 

In the remaining podium position, the Volvo XC90 PHEV repeated last year Bronze medal, with the 2018 podium replicating exacly the 2017 standing.

Elsewhere, the Best Selling small EV trophy winner, Renault Zoe had a last minute climb, to #13, while the Climber of the Year was the Volvo XC60 PHEV, that jumped from #19 in 2017, to #4 this year.

In the brands ranking, Mitsubishi (29%) won the trophy, its 3rd, with Volvo (17%) ending in Second, while the #3 Volkswagen (12%) had to sweat to keep the Bronze medal away from the #4 Nissan (11%).

Wednesday, January 16, 2019

Denmark December 2018

Resultado de imagem para kia niro PHEV denmark

Kia Niro PHEV #1 in Booming market

The 4.583 units registered last year in Denmark, represented a 261% jump regarding 2017,making it the best year since 2015.

This surge in sales lead to a 2018 PEV share of 2%, slightly lower than the 2.3% of 2015, but a good starting base for this market to go into record levels in 2019. Will it reach 4%? 5%?

Unfortunately, a large part of this growth comes from PHEVs, that shooted +449%, while BEVs  jumped a more reasonable +111%, resulting in a PHEV share of 68% of all plugin sales, a new all-time high, and a stark departure from the 23% that plugin hybrids had in 2017, a strange case of delayed PHEV-addiction, when most markets across Europe are dropping the PHEV addiction.

But enough of complaining, in the middle of this sales boom, the surprise winner was the Kia Niro PHEV, with 1.113 units, easily winning the Models title (a first for Kia) with almost double the sales of the #2 Nissan Leaf, itself also a big surprise, having surged from na almost insignificant 20 registrations in 2017, to 637 in 2018. Not bad…

Finally, the VW Golf GTE benefitted from a great first half of the year to secure a Third Spot, thus making a completely new Podium regarding the previous year, when the Renault Zoe won the title, followed by the VW e-Up! and the Tesla Model X.

Looking at the remaining models ranking, the aforementioned Renault Zoe climbed to 4th in the last month of the year, thanks to a Year Best performance in December (121 deliveries).

In the Manufacturers ranking, Kia (31%) won the Best Seller award, its first, with Volkswagen repeating last years Second Place (15%), and Nissan (14%) winning to Hyundai the race for Bronze, but nevertheless, the fact that Hyundai was so close to the podium, highlights the rising powers that the Koreans are now.

A final note regarding 2019, as this is becoming an unpredictable market and i do not know who will win (Koreans?), i will only mention my forecast for the Tesla Model 3 in Denmark: 350 units

Monday, January 14, 2019

New Zealand December 2018

Resultado de imagem para hyundai kona electric new zealand

Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV wins 5th title in a row, but Hyundai wins Manufacturers

Plugins remain a hot item in New Zealand, last month, 92 units were sold in New Zealand, up 31% YoY, pulling the year result to a record 1,523 units, and placing the final 2018 PEV Share at 1.4%, more than double of last year result (0.6%). Will we see it reach 3% in 2019?

Looking at the models ranking, the 2018 Models title remained in the hands wheels of the  Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, that thanks to the arrival of the revised MY 2019 version, scored a record 300 deliveries in 2018, making this year title, its Fifth in a row.

The runner-up spot went again for the Hyundai Ioniq Electric, slightly improving on the 2017 result (221 vs 206), while the last place of the podium has the Tesla Model X winning its first Medal, with 146 deliveries, while its older sibling, the Model S, saw its registrations drop 16% in 2018, ending the year in #6. Is the Tesla Model 3 long shadow also hitting the Model S in New Zealand? More on that later…

Elsewhere, two fresh faces have made an impression, with the Toyota Prius PHEV shooting to #4 in its first year on the market (at the expense of the regular HEV version, that suffered heavy losses this year), while the Hyundai Kona EV ended the year in #7, despite having only landed on the second half of the year. 

In the Manufacturers ranking, Hyundai was the surprise winner, with 25% share, placing three models in the Top 10, while the seven times Best Selling Manufacturer Mitsubishi dropped to Second Place (20%), and Tesla (17%) took the last place of the podium. 

Looking into 2019, the Outlander PHEV will have a hard time to renew its Best Seller title, as the Hyundai Kona EV will build on the current performances and try to replace it on the leadership, while the Tesla Model 3, set to land on the second half of the year, should win enough deliveries to have a shot at #1.

But even if the Japanese SUV wins in 2019, the 2020 Models title should go the Tesla Model 3, as it benefits from its first full deliveries year, possibly reaching some 900 deliveries by that time.

Saturday, January 12, 2019

France December 2018

Resultado de imagem para renault zoe France
Charging up

Leader Renault Zoe pulls market to new heights 

The French PEV passenger car market registered 5,644 registrations in December (+18% YoY), a new all time record, and the result could have been higher, if it weren't the dysmal results of PHEVs, that were down 21%, their sharpest drop since 2016, while all-electric models grew 37% in the same period, helping them to reach a record share of 2.7% in December (3.4%, if we include PHEVs).

This recent sales pick up, pulled the 2018 PEV share North of 2%, ending at record 2.1%, with BEVs alone having 1.7% share. Nevertheless it is a disappointing result, considering  the high level of subsidies associated and the fact that the PEV share only improved 0.4% regarding the 2017 result (1.7%). Better luck in 2019?

More telling of the changing times is the diesel fall from grace in the mainstream market, with the 2018 share shrinking to 39% (35% last November), a significant departure from the 47% of 2017 and a far cry from the 73% of 2012...Will diesel sales be dead by 2023 in one of the most diesel-addicted markets?

Looking at December Best Sellers, the larger amount of available batteries is allowing the Renault Zoe to reach new heights, registering a record 2,558 units in December (+55% YoY), pulling it to #16 in the mainstream market, its highest standing so far, selling at the same level as the Renault ScĂ©nic, with the Zoe selling on a 1-to-4 ratio regarding the market leader, the Renault Clio, its ICE sibling. 

But the real event happened in the Third Spot, with the Smart Fortwo ED scoring a record 339 deliveries, while in #6 we have a fresh face, with the Kia Niro EV, aka e-Niro, delivering 175 units in its first full month on the market, a strong beggining that might indicate the Korean Crossover is set for a Top 5 spot in 2019.

The same can be said about the Hyundai Kona EV, that is  (slowly) ramping up its deliveries, having registered 146 units in December. Will we have two Koreans on the 2019 Top 5? More on that later...  

Renault Zoe
Nissan Leaf
Smart Fortwo ED
BMW i3
Mitsu. Outlander PHEV

In a market known for its stability, it is no surprise to find that the Renault Zoe won the Models trophy, its 6th in a row, with a record 17,038 units, a 12% improvement over the 2017 result, while the Nissan Leaf took another runner-up place, with 4.668 units, almost doubling last year result.

The 2018 Bronze Medal went for the BMW i3, with 2.415 units (+24%), while the year biggest surprise was the Volvo XC60 PHEV, coming out of of the blue to the 4th position, winning the 2018 Best Selling PHEV title, after a close race with the Mini Countryman PHEV and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV. 

Looking at the second half of the table, we can see two (mostly) intersecting trends, with BEVs and the Koreans rising in December, the Tesla Model S profited from the end-of-quarter push, to jump two positions (#12), while the Tesla Model X had a record breaking month, with 93 registrations, allowing it to end the year in #21.

The runnout-mode Kia Soul EV also jumped two positions, to #14, while both Hyundai Ioniq's, the BEV and PHEV, climbed one position, the first to #17, while the second was up to #19. Korea is rising…

Looking at some sub-categories, the Best-Selling SUV/CUV was the Volvo XC60 PHEV (interesting how PHEVs and SUVs overlap, isn't it?), the BMW 225xe A. Tourer won once again the Best Selling MPV award (lack of competitors tend to do these things…), while the Tesla Model S and Volvo XC90 PHEV renewed their Best Selling Large Car and SUV trophies, respectively.

In the brands ranking, Renault (37%) won its 7th consecutive(!) title, followed at a distance by the #2 Nissan and the #3 BMW, both with 10% share, but with the Japanese managing to keep a 300 units advantage over the German brand.

This was a great return to form by Nissan, after ending in 4th last year, with only 6% share, while BMW dropped one position regarding 2017. 

Finally, a quick mention to the large e-LCV sector in France, the 8,103 units represented a 35% growth regarding 2017, with the Renault Kangoo ZE not giving chances to anyone, almost doubling sales regarding last year, to 4,176 units, far, far ahead of the #2 Nissan e-NV200, that registered 649 units. 

Looking into 2019, if the Renault Zoe has the next Models title already assured, with the French hatchback probably crossing the 20,000 units mark, the Second Place should see an interesting race between the Nissan Leaf and the upcoming Tesla Model 3, with the Californian possibly reaching some 5,500 deliveries in 2019.

Below these, there should be a few models making some 3,000-ish performances, besides the BMW i3, we should see both the Kia Niro EV and Hyundai Kona EV also reaching these heights (assuming the Korean makers can get enough batteries, of course…), while the Peugeot 3008 PHEV, said to land by October of 2019, should make a strong last quarter of the month, becoming not only the 2019 Best Selling PHEV, but also another contender for a Top 5 presence.

But, while the 2019 year sure looks more interesting to see than this past year, i believe the true disruption will only come in 2020, when Peugeot plays its cards, starting to deliver its 208 EV, finally forcing the Renault Zoe to play game and make an effort to keep #1, while the 3008 PHEV will go after the Nissan Leaf and Tesla Model 3 for Third position, thus making the PEV podium a lot more similar to the mainstream one.

Friday, January 11, 2019

Norway December 2018

Resultado de imagem para 2018 nissan Leaf Norway

Nissan wins Model and Manufacturer titles, with PEV share hitting 49% in 2018

Despite an unexpected drop in December, due to the PHEV slump (-44%, 6th time in a row plugin hybrids are down), the truth is that BEVs (+61%) continue to shine, that added to the sales drop (-23%!) on the mainstream market, it lead to large BEV (41%) and PEV (58%) shares, helping the 2018 PEV share to end at an amazing 49%, a full 10% increase over the 2017 PEV share (39%).

In this context, 2019 could see Norway get some 75% PEV share, with peak months possibly reaching 90%. Ambitious? Possibly, but next year we will see the Tesla Model 3 crossing the ocean, a 60kWh Leaf, the Kia Niro EV, a revised Renault Zoe, the Audi e-Tron, etc...Now, it doesn't sound so outlandish, does it? 

Proof of this never ending electric rise are the final 2018 fuel mix numbers, diesel vehicles ended with 18% share (it was 23% in 2017), gasoline also declined (22% vs 25%, a year ago), while regular hybrids (11%) also had a significant decline, confirming the HEV role as a stop gap into full electrification (Hear that, Toyota?)

Models breakdown by Fuel Source

With the PEV share at 58%, the plug-in market continues to merge with the mainstream, breaking down sales by fuel source, all the Top 7 models were plugins, and if it wasn't the exceptional result from the Skoda Octavia (fleet deal? Maybe taxis?), with 365 registrations, we would finally have a 100% PEV Top 10.

Maybe next March? Sooner?

Anyway, looking at December Best Sellers, we see the Tesla Model X winning the monthly title, with 1.037 deliveries, with the VW e-Golf  (870 units) winning Silver and the Nissan Leaf ending at the last place of the podium, its lowest standing since January, with the 719 registrations being its lowest result since May. Has the waiting list backlog ended?

A reference to the runnout-mode Kia Soul EV, that had its best month ever, with 197 units, ending right ahead of its cousin Hyundai Kona EV, that with 196 deliveries (and 842 in 2018), hasn't yet started to fulfill in large volumes the thousands-long waiting list in Norway.

Speaking of recent models, the 2018 Rookie of the Year was the #17 Jaguar i-Pace, with the local importer, despite the Netherlands allocation priority, managing to deliver over 1.000 units, 165 of them in December.

Two important models landed in December, with the Audi e-Tron registering its first 7 units, while the Kia Niro EV (aka e-Niro), had 34 units registered last month.

Looking at the 2018 models ranking, the Nissan Leaf won the trophy after a 3 year drought, adding the 2018 statue to the 2014, '13 and '12 edition, with a record 12,000 deliveries.

Last year winner, the VW e-Golf, ended in Second Place, despite a 9% rise in sales, while in 3rd we have the 2017 runner-up, the BMW i3, that has seen its deliveries rise by 13%. 

Elsewhere, the big surprise is the Volvo XC60 PHEV jump from the #15 of 2017, to the current #7, promising to be one of the competitors for the 2019 Best Selling PHEV title, along with the chronic winner Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (the '18 win was its 3rd in a row) and the upcoming Volvo V60 T8 PHEV.  

Looking at other sub-category prizes, there were no significant news, the small EV Best Seller was once again for the BMW i3, the Best Selling CUV/SUV was the Tesla Model X, for the second time in a row, the Tesla Model S was the Best Selling Luxury Car, while the BMW 225xe A. Tourer was the Best Selling MPV.

In the manufacturers ranking, Nissan (17%, down 2%) ended a four year reign from Volkswagen (14%, down 1%), relegated to Second Place, while BMW (13%) resisted the Tesla (12%, up 1%) sales push, with the German maker winning the Bronze medal, with Volvo (11%) ending in 5th.

Regarding LCVs, sales were up 131%, to 1.761 units (5% share), with the Renault Kangoo ZE (687 units) overcoming the usual winner Nissan e-NV200 (567), while on the FCEV market, 52 units were registered, a 3 units drop(!) regarding 2017, with the Hyundai Nexo (27 units) surpassing the Toyota Mirai (25) in the last month of the year, thus making the 4th consecutive title for Hyundai, the first for the recent Nexo. 

Sharewise, FCEVs profited from the registrations drop (-7%) on the mainstream market, to rise its share from the 0.03% of 2017, to the current...0.04%. At this pace, FCEVs will reach 1% share by the year...2038.  

Finally, looking into 2019, the first spot will most likely go for the Tesla Model 3, with some 15.000 deliveries in Norway, or possibly more, it will depend on wether the Model 3 gets the expected sales from other European countries, if it doesn't, then Tesla will allocate more units to its #1 market in Europe. 

The Nissan Leaf isn't likely to improve significantly on its 2018 sales performance, but it will probably be enough to keep the VW e-Golf and BMW i3 at bay.

Tesla will probably also take the Manufacturers title, as both VW and BMW will be betting in 2020 to go after the #1 spot.