Saturday, July 30, 2016

Batteries June 2016




The Rise and Rise of BYD 

EV Battery sales are growing 81%YoY, which is even more than the plug-in car market (+/- 50%), something that can be explained by the increasing size of the average EV battery. With the longer range BEV's just around the corner, expect Battery sales to grow even faster than today.

No surprises in the leadership, Panasonic is comfortably above, thanks to the continued success of battery-hungry Tesla, but sales to the VW Group have dropped, now that they are more focused on the less battery-heavy PHEV's. Looking at the rest of the year, expect sales to Toyota to restart in a significant way, thanks to the Prius Prime PHEV. So basically, here it's business as usual for Panasonic;

BYD is on a never-ending growing trend, being the only manufacturer to significantly improve share (18% now vs 14% in December '15 and just 6% in 2014!) in the ranking, all while tripling production YoY, thanks not only to the increase in EV production, but also in the average size of their batteries, with the largest being the 80kWh of the 2016 BYD e6

AESC, the joint venture between NEC and Nissan, has benefited from the recent uptick in Leaf sales, to hang on and maintain its market share (11%), while at the same time recovering the Third Place from LG Chem;

LG Chem, with the Volt II not growing to the expected levels, the Korean hasn't been capable to follow the intense market growth, but there shouldn't be much worries here, as the New Gen batteries for the Chevy Bolt and others should pull them back into the Third Place;

 Samsung has a partnership with BMW and with the German car maker plug-in sales improving, Samsung has also seen sales grow, albeit it wasn't enough to win market share, as many of BMW sales belonged to PHEV's. 

BPP is the first of a trio of Chinese battery makers in the second half of the ranking, with Wanxiang (SAIC provider) in #7, and Air Lithium (Kandi provider), with the first two experiencing surging sales and beating in six months what they had sold in the whole of 2015.

In a fast growing market, Lithium Energy Japan (GS Yuasa / Mitsubishi) sales actually have dropped, hampered by the sales drop of the Outlander PHEV and lack of new models by the Japanese car maker, having inclusively been surpassed by the third Korean battery maker, SK Group, now #8, thanks to the continued success of the Kia Soul EV and, most importantly, their venture into the Chinese EV market, having been battery providers for some of BAIC all-electric plug-ins;

- A final mention for the #11 E-Power (151) and #12 Tianneng (119), two other Chinese battery makers that help China to obtain 33% of the batteries market, when in the same period last year, they had only 22%. This 11% share increase in only a year is probably one reason why the Chinese government felt confident enough to open the local batteries market to foreign battery manufacturers, as it feels that it will help develop the domestic EV market without killing local battery makers.



PlBattery Makers
 H1 2016 MWh
(H1)   2015
MWh
  %'16% '15
1Panasonic3.088(1.931)4.552
36
38
2
3
BYD
AESC
1.540
930
(461) 1.652
(705) 1.272
18
11
14
11
4
5
6
LG Chem
BPP - Beijing Pride Power
Samsung
623
460
343
(569) 1.432
(139)    397
(294)    504
7
5
4
12
3
4
7Wanxiang304(157)    268
4
2
8
9
SK Group
Mitsubishi/GS Yuasa
241
236
(N/A)   N/A
(241)    600
3
3
N/A
5
10
Air Lithium (Lyoyang)
164(N/A)   283
2
2

TOTAL8.49212.289

Thursday, July 28, 2016

World Top 20 June 2016 (Special Edition)

BYD Qin: "I'm baaack..."


Models - Tesla Model S Wins June

The global EV market continues to grow at rapid pace, with over 67.000 units delivered in May, representing a 57% growth YoY, with the YTD total up 49%, we are headed for a total sales number this year of over 800.000 units, not the Million a year that everybody was hoping for, but an encouraging number nonetheless.

In the models ranking, the Best Seller of the Month was the Tesla Model S, thanks to the usual last-month-of-the-quarter-peak (5.401 units), winning for the second time this year the Best Seller Of The Month award, with the first time unsurprisingly being in March (You see the pattern, right?), then with 7.777 units. 

Looking below in the ranking, the BYD Qin was up two places to #8, thanks to 2.751 units, a year best, although still far from last last year record (4.030 in July), BYD's 300hp sedan has potential to climb even further in the ranking, possibly even repeating last year position (Fourth Place). 

As this is a Full Year special edition, we dig a little deeper, into the Top 20, where we can see five chinese models (#11 Roewe e550, #12 JAC i EV, #13 Kandi EV, #16 JMC E100, #19 Chery eQ), making it nine models coming from China in the Top 20.

The Tesla Model X it's starting to appear on the radar, in #15, having been #10 in June, expect the Minivan-that-thinks-is-a-Sports-SUV to climb to the Top 10 later in the year. 


Comparing with last year, while some models climbed positions, like the BYD Tang, now #3, or its e6 older brother (#10 now vs #22 in '15), others dropped significantly, none more so than the Volkswagen Golf GTE, #18 now, when last year it ended in #10. Just to have an idea of the dimension of the sales drop, in June '15 it had registered 1.863 units, while last month it had only 717...

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, despite a slow start, BEV's are once again leading the race with 60% share, exactly the same number as when it ended 2015.

PlWORLDJune YTD%'15Pl
1Nissan Leaf4.150 27.15192
2Tesla Model S5.40122.37871
3BYD Tang3.51919.13478
4
5
6
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
Renault Zoe
Chevrolet Volt
1.986
2.439
2.263
15.308
11.982
11.124
5
4
4
3
7
9
7BAIC E-Series EV1.2659.977311
8BYD Qin2.7519.63334
9BMW i31.4329.30335
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
BYD e6
SAIC Roewe e550
JAC i EV 4/5
Kandi EV
Ford Fusion Energi
Tesla Model X
JMC E100
Audi A3 e-Tron
Volkswagen Golf GTE
Chery eQ
Volvo XC90 T8
1.647
2.329
1.349
4.670
1.722
2.166
1.500
840
717
953
844
9.226
8.711
7.862
7.797
7.300
7.025
6.027
5.525
5.666
5.337
5.315
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
22
15
16
N/A
17
69
36
14
10
21
39

TOTAL 67.075
306.823



Geely: The Next Big EV Maker coming from China?

Manufacturers -  Tesla Rises to Second

BYD has set an ambitious goal of doubling sales regarding 2015, and after a slow start, the Chinese brand is pushing hard to reach its own goals, in June it delivered 10,129 units, just short of its best performance ever (Last December, with 10.148 units).

Will BYD beat its own record in July? It all points to that, the question will be by how much, the demand is there, it all will depend on their ability to deliver accordingly.

Looking elsewhere, Tesla went back to Second Place and with the Model X finally without major production constraints, expect the Fremont-based automaker to be a hard cookie to remove from the Silver Medal Place.

As this is a Full Year edition, we dig a littler deeper into the Top 20, where we see Zotye in an unusually low #13, compensated by JAC (#11 now vs #17 in '15) and Roewe (#12 vs #15) brilliant performances, with JMC also impressing.

As for newcomers, the most important is closing the ranking in #20, Geely, owner of Volvo, is finally entering the EV Game for real and has a lot of potential to grow, something that can also be said regarding the Chinese EV industry, if you don't believe it, just look at the numbers...

...In 2014, Chinese automakers had 17% of the World EV Market, in 2015 their share grew to 32% and half year passed into 2016, their share is at 39%.

Not only that, i expect Chinese car makers to have over 50% of the total EV market by December, 31st. Yes, in 2016.

So regardless of what happens outside China (Anti-Tesla & EV lobbying, Trump, Brexit, etc), the EV (R)evolution will happen, the only question is: Will traditional automakers be part of it or will they go the way of Dinosaurs, replaced by new, more evolved kids, like Tesla and the Chinese car makers?

PlWORLDJuneYTD%'15Pl
1BYD10.12943.244141
2Tesla7.56729.403102
3Nissan4.46828.88494
4BMW3.40921.14776
5
6
7
Mitsubishi
Volkswagen
Renault 
2.401
2.810
3.098
17.705
17.030
15.481
6
6
5
3
5
8
8BAIC4.11614.584512
9Chevrolet2.62712.947411
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Ford
JAC
SAIC Roewe
Zotye
Kandi
Volvo
Mercedes
JMC
Chery
Audi
Geely
2.429
1.349
2.545
1.841
4.670
1.117
1.501
1.500
1.004
931
1.334
11.143
9.720
9.231
7.863
7.797
7.477
7.191
6.027
5.990
5.820
3.795
4
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
2
2
1
10
17
15
9
7
18
16
25
13
14
N/A





Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Europe June 2016

The Renault Zoe is now in the driver's seat


Renault Zoe Climbs to Number One 


The European EV market had more than 17.000 registrations last month, representing a 1% increase over June 2015, the slowdown in these last couple of months is due to the fiscal changes in Germany. Nevertheless, the market is set to surpass the 200.000 units by year end, possibly even reaching 250.000 units. Let's look at the Monthly Ranking:


#1 Renault Zoe – Despite dropping 3% YoY to 2.481 units, the French hatchback is finally fulfilling expectations, with Renault actively selling the car, resulting in the Zoe reaching the monthly leadership for the third time this year. With the French auto market going into holiday-season mode for the next two months, Germany, Zoe’s second largest market, will have to make up for the loss. Good thing then that a tidal wave of sales is expected there, now that the incentives just kicked in…   


#2 Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV – The Japanese SUV sales have dropped 12% YoY, to 1.757 units, ending the month in Second. Although growing in important markets, like Norway or Sweden, Mitsubishi hasn’t found a way to replace the average 300-400 units/month it had last year in the Dutch market and to stop the sales slowdown in the UK.



#3 Nissan Leaf – Sales of the Japanese hatch were up 7% in May, to 1.572 units, not that far from the Outlander PHEV, and it has to thank to France and Norway for that, where it sells more than half of its volume. The question is: Can it keep up? The Leaf is getting a bit old now, and 250 kms range are not enough to fight longer range BEV’s (New BMW i3, 2017 Chevrolet Bolt Opel Ampera-e…) coming soon, so unless something happens, the most common EV in the world will have a hard time in Europe in the next year or so.


#4 Tesla Model S – The (not so) surprise of the month, Tesla’s Sports-Sedan-that’s-actually-a-Liftback offered the usual last month of the quarter peak performance, reaching #4, with 1.484 units, a somewhat disappointing result, considering that in the last sales peak (March ’16), it had 2.380 units and in June 2015, 2.104 deliveries. Is the Model S becoming passé, now that the Model X is arriving to European shores?


#5 VW Passat GTE – Thanks to Sweden and Norway, where, combined, it sold 686 units, Volkswagen’s midsize offering reached the Fifth Position in June, with 1.117 units, its best score this year. With the right mix of space, practicality, low carbon emissions and power, the Passat GTE is destined for success as company car for middle managers across Europe, something that could only be potentiated by the new incentives in Germany. Will we see it reach the podium this summer?



YTD Ranking

Looking at the YTD ranking, the Renault Zoe has finally risen to the leadership, dropping the Outlander PHEV to the Second Position, but not all are bad news for the Japanese SUV, despite the #3 Nissan Leaf being only 249 units behind, there are no short term prospects for the Nissan hatch to outrun it, unless, of course, there is some unexpected wizardry coming from Nissan in the final months of the year… (wink, wink

If the podium positions are open to discussion, the apparent race for #6 will no longer exist in the coming months, with BMW presumably delivering a tsunami of i3’s soon, enough to recover the #6 and even put pressure on the underperforming #5 VW Golf GTE, affected by its Passat GTE sibling success.

While the revised i3 hasn't yet arrived, BMW has already its hands full with their most recent PHEV’s. The 330e has risen to #13, thanks to 497 units sold in June, while the 225xe Active Tourer joined the Top 20 in #14, thanks to a personal record of 484 units, expect these two to continue rising in the ranking it the second half of the year.

For some models to climb, others have to come down and we are giving a few lines on them. If regarding 2015, the Volvo V60 Plug-in dropping eight places to #17, falls into the logic of things, given the increase of competition (BMW 330e, Mercedes C350e, VW Passat GTE…), with more or less the same going for the six positions drop of the #10 VW e-Golf (Nissan Leaf 30 kWh, upcoming Tesla Model 3, confusingly named Opel Ampera-e…), the four positions drop of the #11 Audi A3 e-Tron is harder to understand, as it hasn’t got any direct new rival this year.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, the trophy bearer Volkswagen (16%), has lost some advantage over Renault (15%, up 1%), while the increasingly menacing BMW (13%) has risen to Third, dropping Nissan (12%, down 1%) to Fourth.

With the 33 kWh BMW i3 coming soon, expect the Bavarian brand to continue winning market share and even possibly becoming the Best Selling plug-in automaker in Europe.

Article also published on CleanTechnica and EV Obsession.



Pl
Europe
June
2016
%
'15Pl
1
Renault Zoe
2.418
11.872
12
2
2
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
1.757
11.176
11
1
3
Nissan Leaf
1.572
10.927
11
5
4
Tesla Model S
1.484
6.834
7
4
5
Volkswagen Golf GTE
724
5.694
6
3
6
Volvo XC90 T8
768
4.995
5
18
7
BMW i3
573
4.886
5
6
8
Volkswagen Passat GTE
1.117
4.635
5
12
9
10
11
Mercedes C350e
Volkswagen e-Golf
Audi A3 e-Tron
808
516
451
4.305
3.904
3.360
4
4
3
11
4
7
12
13
14
BMW X5 40e
BMW 330e
BMW 225xe Active Tourer
415
497
484
2.572
2.333
2.012
3
2
2
22
37
32
15
Renault Kangoo ZE
413
1.950
2
13
16
Kia Soul EV
385
1.888
2
10
17
Volvo V60 Plug-In
273
1.614
2
9
18
19
20
Mercedes B250e
Porsche Cayenne Plug-In
Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia
304
222
268
1.587
1.439
1.416
2
1
1
17
14
15
TOTAL
17.259
98.788