Thursday, October 30, 2014

World Top 10 September 2014

Kandi: The Electric Car Of The People?

Models - A Different Dimension

There were some 37.500 plug-ins sold last month, record numbers that double sales regarding the same month last year, and represent a 11.000 units improvement over the previous month, much of this can be attributed to the Kandi Cyclone, with 6.771 units last month (side note: Geely, parent company of Kandi, presented the second addition to the Brand, the 4-seat Cyclone), but even if we excluded Kandi from the picture, we would still have a record! (30.772 units).

The reason for this sales avalanche is that four models of this Top 10 has beaten their personal records at the same time, the aforementioned Kandi, the Leaf, BMW i3 and the ever-improving BYD Qin (ninth consecutive record), all conquered new sales records, with two cars outside of the Top 10 also deserving mention, the Zotye E20 blew away its previous record (780 before vs 1.621 last month), while the Renault Zoe barely missed a new sales record (1.358 in June '13 vs 1.356 in Sept. '14). 

Looking to the models ranking, we can see two new Dimensions appearing:

China is Rising

For the first time this year, the leader Nissan Leaf had to sweat to secure another Monthly Best Seller Trophy, as Kandi only sold 23 units less, this is the first time since 2010(!) that a  chinese model hits the monthly podium, and Kandi is not alone in the monthly Top 10, with the BYD Qin in #6 and Zotye E20 in #7.

Looking at the YTD ranking, Kandi is now #5, we have to go back to 2011 to see a chinese model doing so well (At the time it was the JAC J3 EV in #5), but the BYD Qin is also doing wonders, having climbed one position to #8, and don't forget that in #12 we have the Chery QQ3 EV and in #13 there's another rising star, the Zotye E20... 

The numbers needed to reach the Top positions are increasing

Last month, the #5 (BMW i3) best selling car sold 2.152 units comparing this with what happened twelve months ago, the #5 then (Volvo V60 Plug-In) had sold 877 units...


PlWORLDSeptYTD%'13Pl
1Nissan Leaf6.79444.848201
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV3.91524.304115
3Tesla Model S3.82721.48694
4Chevrolet Volt (1)1.57916.42972
5Kandi EV p)6.77115.8357N/A
6Toyota Prius Plug-In78215.40173
7BMW i32.15211.271520
8BYD Qin1.7009.473440
9Ford Fusion Energi6509.40849
10Ford C-Max Energi6926.64038

TOTAL37.543229.126


Manufacturers - Kandi Surges 

The only real news is the 3 position jump made by Kandi, from #10 to #7, and with Toyota, Chevrolet and even Ford nearby, it won't be difficult for the chinese brand to surpass them until the end of the year.

PlWORLDSeptYTD%'13Pl
1Nissan6.83545.122201
2Mitsubishi4.26727.400123
3Tesla3.82721.48695
4Ford1.82018.08887
5Chevrolet 1.63017.35782
6Toyota90716.37674
7Kandi p)6.77115.8357N/A
8BMW2.30411.646513
9BYD1.90211.520511
10Renault1.89911.04056





(1) - Includes Holden Volt, Opel and Vauxhall Ampera;

p) - Production numbers


Questions for October

1 - Will Kandi continue to amaze everyone? 

2 - Who will improve their sales records?

3 - Can Kandi reach #4 in the models ranking?...

4 - ...And reach Toyota in the manufacturers ranking?

Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Markets Roundup September 2014

The Outlander PHEV is proving to be a Sales Champ


Top 10 EV Shares

Here are the top 10 markets with largest EV Share today:

Country   % '14.....'13.......'12
Norway      14,38.....6,10.....3,12
Netherlands4,07.....5,55.....1,10
Iceland2,14.....0,94.....0,21
Sweden1,67.....0,71.....0,43
Estonia1,49.....0,68.....2,39
Japan0,94.....0,92.....0,77
France0,86.....0,84.....0,66
USA0,70.....0,62.....0,39
Denmark0,67.....0,29.....0,29
Switzerland0,59.....0,44.....0,41

As you can see, although different, there are some common characteristics in these markets: Most (If not all) have fiscal incentives regarding plug-ins, while the majority enjoy high living standards.

Comparing their current EV shares with the one had in the past, there are differences between each market, while Norway, Iceland, Sweden have been growing exponentially in the past years, the USA
 are experiencing a steady climb over the years, something that this year Japan and France are finding harder to achieve.

As for Switzerland and Denmark, something clicked this year, making their EV Share rise faster than in the previous year.

The Netherlands has a different situation from the others, because if we compare with last year result of 5,55%, the Share decrease is significant, but considering that there was a fiscal-changes-derived-rush late last year, it would be better to compare with the 2012 performance, time when the EV Share was at 1,10%, so there is also a sensible progression here.


Finally, Estonia. Thanks to a deal made by the Estonian government back in 2011, Mitsubishi flooded the local market with I-Miev's, pulling the EV Share to a sky-high 2,39% in 2012, making it the second largest Share, only behind Norway. Naturally, when the agreement ended in 2013, the EV Share suffered a drawback, to 0,68%, which it wasn't all too shabby, allowing it still to be the #7 in this parameter. Now sales are doubling and returning to the levels of 2012, only this time it's consumers originating demand instead of governmental sales deals.



 







Trends in the G8 

There were several records broken in the Top Markets, beginning with China and the UK, both shattering their previous sales records (12k instead of 5,7k for China and 3k inst. of 1k in the UK), and France beating expectations and also improving its sales record (Record now at 2,3k), only the Netherlands sold poorly, selling only 1,1k.


Regarding EV Shares, China continues to grow significantly (Now at 0,33%), but there are also other markets growing fast, like the German, where plug-ins continue to climb (0,46% vs 0,38% last month) at a fast pace, while in the UK the EV market jumped yet again from 0,33% to the current 0,42%. With France and Japan back at positive territory, only Holland (4,07%) is behind last year result (5,55%).

Looking at the models ranking of each country, Tesla did great in the US, but it was the Nissan Leaf that took the local Monthly Best Seller trophy, while Kandi left everyone in China (And elsewhere) amazed with their numbers, in Japan the Leaf continues to win over the Outlander PHEV, something that was reversed in the UK, with the japanese SUV breaking the all-time sales record by a fair margin. The Leaf regained the Monthly Best Selling scepter in Norway, just like Smart in Germany, while the Zoe went back to form in France, performing a Year Best.

In the Netherlands the Outlander PHEV continues their rule while the runner-up V60 Plug-In was dethroned this month from the Second Spot by the Model S.


Questions for November

1 - Will the Leaf continue to impress and add more titles to its collection?

2 - Who will be #1 in Norway? And in Germany?

3 - Will the e-Golf start to collect #1's?

Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Warning Lights - How Tesla's Hype is ending





Don't Believe the Hype?

A lot has been said about the hype created by Tesla and the media regarding the past October 9th event, Elon Musk sent the bait and many went after it, making different guesses about what it was, Model S AWD, Model X, Model III? Some other kind of trick?

When the announcement was made, the AWD Model S and a Driving Aid System, many were disappointed with the Next-Big-Deal-That-After-All-It-Was-Not-That-Big.

The same kind of news in a manufacturer like BMW, at best would be just another major AutoShow announcement, among other more important launches.

Sure, Tesla in not any other automaker, it doesn't have a large portfolio and it is scrutinized in the media like no other Auto Brand, but that would be another reason for Tesla to take more attention on the Hype around it.

The recent disinvestment in Tesla made by Daimler and Toyota should be seen in a larger picture, the California-based manufacturer stocks are falling, and many doubts are arising regarding the long-term future of Tesla.


Tesla 2012 - Bright future

When the Model S landed two years ago, one could say that it was years ahead of the competition, not only because it was an electric car like no other, with power and range enough to scare many of the best ICE cars, but the whole concept regarding service, sales, charging stations, among other features, was something completely different.

The competition was caught with the trousers down, still in early stages of development for their electric cars or deciding wether to go full on to plug-ins, and couldn't respond to it, making Infinity even go back at the drawing board with the LE.

When will the X be a reality?

Tesla 2014 - Clouds on the Horizon

Currently Tesla is no longer a North American/Euro curiosity, their sales network is spread across the globe and the Supercharging stations are growing fast across the major markets, with Tesla owners being able to cross continents without any kind of range anxiety.

Sales grew exponentially in two years, with 3.000 units/month now the norm for the automaker, and they are now prepared to jump production two fold, with the help of the upcoming Model X.

It's here that things start to lose some grip, because the timetable for the Model X is delayed for quite some time now, for a car that it would be on sale late this year, the production-ready car is still to be presented and there are no signs of coming soon, so an optimistic view would see it being revealed in December / early January (Perhaps by the time of the Detroit Auto Show), first demonstration units in February/March and mass volume by April/May, if this timetable comes true, the delay won't be that damaging, but if Tesla delays it more than these 6 months, the SUV segment will start to be crowded by Porsche, Volvo, Mitsubishi, etc

Even the Model S didn't had that much updates during this period, if at the time it was launched it was 5 to 10 years ahead of the competition, the gap is now reduced and the competitors are recovering fast, with rumors that in three years time they will be where the Model S is now. And how will be Model S in 2017? It will be probably redesigned, but with funds going for the development for the Model III, don't expect for a huge leap in the refreshed  Tesla sedan.

My favorite rendering for the Model III...

Tesla Model III - Moment Of Truth

It will be with the Model III, that will come the crucial moment for the long-term survival of an independent Gigafactoried Tesla, if it achieves the ambitious goals set by Elon Musk, the battery-production scale will help it become profitable and win those needed funds to add more models to the lineup and assure the long-term profitability.

But, for that to happen, they will have to market it sooner than later, because others are already pushing their EV's for the same kind of product (300 kms range, price in the 30k's USD) in 2016/7, if they can push the Model III to the market before that timetable, they will have a window of opportunity for success, if not, others will eat Tesla's lunch.

...And the LEAST favorite.


Japan September 2014


Now, That's More Like It! 

To finish a positive month for plug-ins around the world, good news from the japanese market: 3.897 units were sold last month, the second best month of the year, pulling the EV Share to 0,94% (Will we see this market end the year at 1%?), while the top two models also had their second best result of the year, with the Leaf again #1 (1.756 units), probably benefitting from the Outlander PHEV (1.450) production constraints, as such, it looks that the Leaf will be again the Best Seller of the Year.

Good result for the Prius Plug-In, with 358 sales, securing a comfortable Third Spot YTD, while the #6 BMW i3 is looking to pass the Miev duo above it.

Three new models appear on the ranking: Tesla registered its first 8 units in Japan and BMW sold its first i8, and a new model shows up here, despite being on sale since last year: The Accord Plug-In joins the ranking in #8, hoping to pass the Minicab Miev Truck and reach #7.

PlJapanSept  2014     %Pl '13
1Nissan Leaf1.75610.87745 1
2Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV1.4508.36034 2
3Toyota Prius Plug-In 3582.97012 3
4Mitsubishi I-Miev977573 4
5Mitsubishi Minicab Miev1106393 5
6
7
8
9
10
BMW i3 e)
Mitsub. Minicab Miev Truck
Honda Accord Plug-In e)
Tesla Model S
BMW i8
100
6
10
8
1
515
115
97
8
1
2
0
0
0
0
 N/A
6
8
N/A
N/A

TOTAL3.89724.340100

e) Estimate



Source:http://evn.blog.eonet.jp; http://www.samochodyelektryczne.org

Monday, October 27, 2014

Europe September 2014

The current ranking climber looks like this...

Hurra! Edition

With more than 10.000 units sold in September, the European EV market had the best month of the year and the third best ever, only behind last November (10.565) and December (14.197), which were inflated by the fiscal changes in the Netherlands, so if we only consider regular months, this was best best month ever, while the YTD sales are already ahead of last year (69k vs 67k), so plug-ins are actually growing in Europe, despite what some might say...


Looking at the monthly models ranking, the top 5 is full of records and year bests, the leader Outlander PHEV had its best sales month of the year, the runner-up Leaf has made its best score ever, with 1.986 units (Sunderland assembly line  is finally paying off), the #3 Zoe barely missed a personal best (1.343 vs 1.358 in June '13) and the BMW i3 had its third best score ever.

PlModelSales  
1
Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV
2.453
2Nissan Leaf1.986
3Renault Zoe1.343
4BMW i3967
5Tesla Model S748

On the YTD ranking, there's not really much to tell in the front seats, the VW e-Golf had something of an off month, selling just 336 units and being unable to reach the Top 10 yet.

A deserved mention to the BMW i8, #14 in September with 93 units and jumping four positions to #19 YTD, something to be regarded with respect, considering the type of car.

Finally, the Kia Soul EV jumps to #25 YTD (#13 in September with 107 units), which may actually consider that the South Korean automaker is investing for real in Plug-ins and wants to be a major player soon. 

ps - Considering all the new arrivals, this is from now on a Top 30 Edition

PlEuropeSept.2014%'13Pl
1Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV2.45314.670213
2Nissan Leaf1.98611.159161
3BMW i39677.4161112
4Tesla Model S7487.080107
5Renault Zoe 1.3436.08592
6Volkswagen e-Up!3484.242611
7Volvo V60 Plug-In4144.04274
8Renault Kangoo ZE 2992.80245
9Renault Twizy2211.786310
10Smart Fortwo ED2801.74439
11Volkswagen e-Golf3361.6992N/A
12Bolloré Bluecar136888116
13Toyota Prius Plug-In72638115
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
Citröen C-Zero
Porsche Panamera Plug-In
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Opel Ampera
Peugeot iOn
BMW i8
Nissan e-NV200
Goupil G3
Audi A3 e-Tron
Peugeot Partner EV
Ford Focus Electric
Kia Soul EV
Citröen Berlingo EV
VW Golf GTE
Renault Fluence ZE
Chevrolet Volt
BYD e6
45
27
31
33
41
93
41
20
23
25
37
107
11
20
15
2
7
551
537
523
473
439
307
274
268
250
241
198
129
115
96
92
65
43
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
12
21
14
8
18
N/A
N/A
17
N/A
22
24
N/A
N/A
N/A
19
13
N/A

TOTAL10.21669.988



Sunday, October 26, 2014

Estonia - September 2014

The Volkswagen e-Up! had a personal best last month

Back To The Golden Days - Chapter Three

44 electric cars were sold last month, placing the EV Share at an amazing 1.49%, With September beating the month before by two units and marking the fourth consecutive sales growth, will this market reach the 2% share until the end of the year? Fingers crossed... 

The Nissan Leaf is the usual leader, with 33 registrations last month, followed at a distance by Tesla Model S and VW e-Up!, with 4 units, which allowed the german city-car to rise to #4 in the YTD ranking, changing positions with the Renault Zoe.

PlEstoniaSept     YTD%'13Pl
1Nissan Leaf33179751
2Tesla Model S42294
3
4
5
6
6
8
8
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Volkswagen e-Up!
Renault Zoe
Nissan e-NV200
BMW i3
Mia Electric
Citröen C-Zero
2
4

1



15
8
7
4
2
1
1
6
3
3
2
1
1
1
3
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
2
N/A

TOTAL42195100


Source: mnt.ee

Belgium September 2014

Tesla is doing well over here 

Tesla #1 Again Edition

144 ev's were sold last month in Belgium, an average month that actually made the EV Share rise slightly (0,01% to be more accurate) to 0,41%.

Looking at the September models ranking, if Tesla doesn't surprise by being the Best Seller, with 28 units, the second spot from the VW e-Golf, with 23 units, is a sign that actual sales are starting to hit the roads and just not demonstration vehicles.

The BMW i3 sales were below expectations, selling 18 units, having to share the #3 monthly podium with the Nissan Leaf, which had its best performance since last April.

In the second half of the ranking, the Opel Ampera had its best sales month since October '13, selling 5 units, in what it might be a stock clearance from the Belgian importer...

Finally, there's one newcomer to point out, the Kia Soul EV landed and made its first registration. 


PlBelgiumSeptYTD%'13Pl
1Tesla Model S28361242
2BMW i3 *18247167
3Porsche Panamera Plug-In112041312
4Nissan Leaf18147103
5Volvo V60 Plug-In512281
6Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV11121819
7Renault Twizy 88564
8Renault Zoe34835
9Volkswagen e-Up!439314
10BYD e61362N/A
10Smart Fortwo ED23626
12Volkswagen e-Golf23332N/A
13Opel Ampera51018
14
15
16
16
16
16
20
20
20
20
20
20
BMW i8
Mitsubishi I-Miev
Peugeot iOn
Nissan e-NV200
Fisker Karma
Porsche 918
Citröen C-Zero
Toyota Prius Plug-In
McLaren P1
Renault Fluence ZE
Kia Soul EV
Mia Electric
3


1
1
1




1

9
3
2
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
N/A
10
14
N/A
9
N/A
N/A
14
N/A
11
N/A
13

TOTAL1441.515100

Source: febiac.be



* - 11 Bev + 7 Rex