Europe January 2021

PHEVs shine in disrupted market

The European passenger plug-in market registered 112,000 registrations in January (+50% YoY), with PHEVs (+85%) growing faster than BEVs (+18%), with PHEVs starting the year ahead of BEVs  (42% BEVs / 58% PHEVs). 

Last month positive result, added to a crashing overall market (-26% YoY), allowed the 2021 plugin share to start at 14% (5.6% for BEVs alone), already above the final 2020 PEV (11%) and doubling the result of January 2020 (6.6%).

With the plugin share already starting firmly above 10%, disruption is here to stay and the 20% mark for 2021, that i expected a month ago, now not only looks reasonable, but one can even imagine it ending above that score!. 

In January, PHEVs were the stars of the show, not only winning the Best Seller trophy for the first time in years, thanks to the surprising Volvo XC40 PHEV, but also by placing 2 models in the Top 5, for the first time since last August, as the BMW 330e(!) reached the 4th place last month.

And the surprises do not ended there, as the Kia Niro EV won the last place of the podium, although the 3,123 units weren't enough to beat the #2 Renault Zoe, that lost the leadership race by a mere 23 units, while the VW ID.3, said to be the favorite candidate to win the 2021 title, was only 5th.    

In a month where the overall market saw the perennial leader VW Golf drop to 4th(!), behind the #1 Toyota Yaris(!!), #2 Peugeot 208 (!) and #3 Dacia Sandero (!!!), and the usual runner-up Renault Clio starting only in #7, added to the fact that plugins are becoming increasingly mainstream, the European automotive market is definetely into little known waters, although for now we shouldn't read too much into these early results, but i believe by March we should have a clearer view of what's going on, and the if disruption is indeed hurting the previous status quo.   

Also important to know, will be if the possible weakness of the VW Golf and Renault Clio is due to buyers directly flocking to their EV counterparts (ID.3 and Zoe), or are they moving into other options on the market.

Bring on the popcorn, because the next few months will surely be fun to watch!

Looking at the Monthly Models Ranking:

#1 Volvo XC40 PHEV – With electrification high on Volvo's priorities list, the Swedish brand is, along with Porsche, the two most electrified legacy makers in Europe, the PHEV version of the compact SUV hit 3,543 units last month, winning for Volvo its first monthly trophy, highlighting the good growth prospects in 2021 for the brand, especially considering that its BEV sibling (1,027 units last month) is only just starting, with a number of markets still without units delivered. While the XC40 PHEV major market was Germany (573 units), there were several others also helping in significant volumes, like the Netherlands (367), France (357), the UK (350), Belgium (434) and Italy (399).

#2 Renault Zoe– The 3,520 deliveries of January haven't allowed it to start in the lead, but with only 23 units separating if from the leadership, it really doesn't mean anything for future prospects. Back to January, Germany (1,166 units) and France (1,013) pulled the usual heavy lifting, with Italy a distant 3rd, with only 255 registrations.

#3 Kia Niro EV – The Korean crossover scored 3,123 units last month, a 137% surge regarding the same month last year, although this might not mean that the Niro EV will have an outstanding 2021, as it might be just the result of Kia's allocation policy. To be continued... Looking back at January results, the two main markets were the UK (950 units), followed by France (748 units, a new record), with Germany being a distant third (350 registrations).

  

#4 BMW 330e– Now this was a surprise. The German midsizer joined the Top 5 and became the leader in its category, with 3,058 units. With BMW's plugin hybrid profiting from a fortuity of circumstances, like the fact that the Tesla Model 3 was in an off month, and the Mercedes C-Class arch-rival being close to a generational change (the new PHEV version has 100 kms (62 mi) electric range! and CCS!), the BMW plugin hybrid managed to pull off this good result, although one wonders for how long with BMW's model manage to keep this status. Looking at individual countries, the UK (1,100 units) and Germany (763), were its largest markets, with the following being Belgium (263) and Sweden (244).

#5 Volkswagen ID.3– The German model hit a meh 2,978 units last month, which is somewhat disappointing, but with production still ramping up, we should see a very strong March, with the following months being the real test to the VW EV demand and/or production priorities, as the German maker might prioritize the more profitable ID.4 over the ID.3... Regarding January performances, the Volkswagen hatchback registrations were heavily concentrated in Germany (1,799), being followed from a far by Austria (199), and France (142). Interesting that they focussed January deliveries in markets close to the factory, isn't it?

Peugeot 508 PHEV

Looking at the remaining ranking, BMW and Peugeot impressed, with the German maker placing 4 models in the Top 20, while Peugeot had 3, with one of them, the 3008 PHEV, even scoring a record result (2,680 units), and while BMW Top 20 line-up was all PHEV and SUV-heavy (3 SUVs), Peugeot had had two BEVs, while looking at the broader Stellantis line up, the new conglomerate also placed 4 models to the table, because on top of the 3 Peugeot's, the Opel Corsa EV also managed to find a spot in the table, in #20.

Regarding fresh faces, a mention to the 12th spot of the Mercedes GLE350e/de barge SUV, after a looong production ramp up, it seems to be a tradition now in Mercedes, the long range SUV is finally living up to its specs (31 kWh battery and CCS charging) and being delivered in large numbers. Coincidentally, its BMW arch rival, the X5 PHEV, is also back at the Top 20, which underlines a recent trend, big SUVs are being electrified faster than the rest of the market. 

Outside the Top 20, two recent models deserve a mention, the Toyota RAV4 PHEV continues its deliveries ramp up, clocking an already relevant 1,253 units last month, while the Citroen C4 EV is also ramping up, having registered 536 units in January.

In the manufacturers ranking, BMW profited from strong results from its (long) lineup and started the year in the lead, with 10% share, followed by a pack of competitors, leaded by Volkswagen, Peugeot and Mercedes, all with 7% share each, with Renault and Volvo following immediately, both with 6%.

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan sales started in the low end, with 1,499 deliveries, only 11 less than a year ago, but expect the sports sedan deliveries to jump significantly in March, thus distancing itself from the #2 Mercedes EQC (1,354 units) and Polestar 2 (1,297).

Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, at least until its Model Y sibling lands, as the Polestar 2 is still too expensive to reach higher volumes and the EQC...Well, that one is just happy to keep Silver while it can.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it comes close to the the Mercedes EQC...

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring 2,621 units last month, with its sales growing 16% YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will the growth rates will be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...Maybe when the Q4 e-Tron is presented?

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (1,094 units last month) accelerating its sales, the main interest is now the 3rd spot, where the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (168 units) has managed to beat both flagship Teslas.

2021 will se a lot of action in this category, not only with several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), but with also the flagship Teslas redesign and the Porsche Taycan lineup expansion (RWD, Cross Turismo...), the Audi e-Tron will have a harder time keeping the full size crown.

Europe December 2020

 Open the Gates! (23% share!) 

While the overall automotive market is still in red (-4% YoY), in December, Europe's passenger plugin market had an historic month, having registered a record 281,000 registrations (+264% YoY!), adding an amazing 115,000 units to the previous record, set in the previous month. 

This impressive result shooted December's plugin share to 23% share (14% BEV), helping the 2020 numbers to rise 142% over those of the previous year, to well over 1 million units, and pulling the market into the...Disruption Zone, as the 2020 PEV share ended at 11% share (6.2% for BEVs alone), a significant departure from the 3.6% of 2019 (2.2% BEVs), so we can say with some certainty that part of the fall on the overall market has more to do with the disruption provoked by plugins than Covid-related issues. And so, let the games begin...

...Expect 2021 to continue the disruptive trend, so i expect 15%-plus 20% market share by the end of the year.

In December, BEVs ran fast (168.912 units, +223% YoY), but PHEVs are were even faster (+347%, 112,260 units), so in the final 2020 numbers, while plugin hybrids ended below (46% vs 54% share) fully electrics, they recovered a massive 10% share regarding the previous year.

Last month Best Seller was the VW ID.3, that did a Tesla-like peak in December and has beaten the Tesla Model 3 on a high tide month, the first time any model achieves such a feat.

Last month podium welcomes the fresh Renault Captur PHEV, with Renault placing for the first time two models in the Top 5, while also being the first time that the French brand wins the monthly PHEV Best Seller title. Something to repeat in 2021?...

Looking at December Top 5 Models:

#1 Volkswagen ID.3 - The much antecipated German EV was finally delivered in large volumes, by delivering a massive 28,108 units, which might look that the VW hatchback has finally grown into filling its big shoes, but one wonders how many of these registrations actual deliveries and how many were just self-registrations, on order to avoid the EU's CO2 emission fines...Moving on, the first MEB-platform based EV had its main markets in Germany (7,144 units), the Netherlands (6,083), and the UK (3,200), with Norway (2,303), France (2,550) and Sweden (2,564) also posting four digit scores. Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and Renault Zoe for the monthly Best Seller title. Unless, of course, the new VW ID.4 starts to cast its shadow over its lower riding sibling...

#2 Tesla Model 3 - The 2019 Best Selling EV in Europe delivered a record 24,664 units, which in normal times would grant it the Best Seller honour. But in the current disruption period, anything can happen...The sports sedan main markets in December were the UK (5,700 deliveries), Norway (4,232), and Germany (3,293 units), with Switzerland (1,560) and Denmark (1,460) also scoring four digit scores. Expect the Model 3 to continue running for #1 throughout 2021. Unless, of course, the new Tesla Model Y starts to cast its shadow over its lower riding sibling...(Haven't i written this somewhere?)

#3 Renault Zoe – Despite ending only in 3rd, December was another great month for the French EV, with the 16,322 deliveries of the Renault model representing a record score, with the maker profiting from a mature manufacturing capability that allows it to respond almost immediately to demand peaks, thus avoiding those pesky waiting lists, so common in many other OEMs. Last month, the main markets were France (5,978 units) and Germany (5,349), with Italy (1,153 units) a distant 3rd. Expect the Zoe to continue running for the leadership during 2021, unless, of course, the new Renault Captur PHEV starts to cast its shadow over its lower riding sibling...(I am sure i had already written something like this before...) 

#4 Hyundai Kona EV – Speaking about the Rise of the Crossovers, in December we had Hyundai's star EV shooting to its first five-digit score, with the small Crossover hitting a record 11,340 deliveries last month. Is this peak Kona EV? With the upcoming Ioniq 5 (not so) compact crossover said to be a small revolution in the EV World, one wonders if the Kona EV won't suffer from the new internal competition. Unless Hyundai lowers its price...But enough of futurology, and back to last month performance, the Netherlands was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 4,441 deliveries, followed by Germany (2,995 units), with Spain (578) being a distant 3rd.

#5 Renault Captur PHEV – Thanks to competitive pricing, at some 32,000€, it's one of the cheapest PHEVs in Europe, and an attractive design, the small Crossover from Renault has won its first Best Seller trophy in the PHEV field in December, with 6,135 units, with the French model proving to be a massive hit in Italy (2,120 units!), beating even its native France (1,437 units), while the 3rd largest market, at some distance, was Germany, with 806 deliveries. Now, this performance raises a few questions for the future: Will the small Crossover be able to win the 2021 Best Seller title in the PHEV category? Will it be able to replicate the success of the Zoe in Germany? Will it start to eat into the Zoe territory? After all we are living in the Crossover Craze era...

Looking at the remaining December Best Sellers, the Nissan Leaf was #7, with the 5,424 registrations of last month representing the hatchback best performance in 33 months(!), confirming that the current EV Force is so strong that even an old Jedi like the Leaf can pull some tricks from its sword.

In such an outstanding month, 17 models out of this Top 20 hit personal records, like the Audi e-Tron (5,296 units), VW e-Up (3,751) or even the Jaguar i-Pace, that surprised many by scoring a record 4,635 registrations (or were they self-registrations? Mmmm...) last month. 

We also have two important freshmans showing up on the table, with the Fiat 500e jumping to #10 and the VW ID.4 coming literally out of nowhere into #11, expect these two EVs to become familiar faces here, with the Italian set to win the City Car category in 2021, while the German will do its best to beat the Tesla Model Y in the SUV category.  

In the PHEV category, the Mercedes A250e couldn't resist the Renault Captur PHEV peak in December, but these two will have plenty of opportunities during 2021 to run against each other, as no one else seems to be able to run at the same pace of these two. Or is it?...

With the #13 SEAT Leon PHEV (4,353 units) and #14 VW Golf PHEV (4,245) in ramp up mode, and their Czech cousin Skoda Octavia PHEV also starting its production ramp up, not forgetting the BMW X1 PHEV (record 3,788 units), the PHEV title will have plenty of candidates playing in the biggest pool of the European market, the compact category, so the days where the Mitsubishi Outlander owned the PHEV category are now long gone, and all the better for that, the more choices there are on the market, the easier it gets for consumers to make the switch.

And having said that about PHEVs, the same goes for fully electric vehicles! 

A final reference to the #19 Volvo XC40 PHEV, that was one of the few models not to score a record result in December, and the main reason for that is internal competition, as its XC40 EV twin is now fully in ramp up mode (3,269 units), and it seems to be draining its sales...

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 3,246 registrations of the Renault Twingo EV, although one wonders how will the small Renault react to the arrival of its significantly cheaper Romanian cousin, the Dacia Spring, in a few months. The Mazda MX-30 also scored a record 3,238 units, although this is another case where we can imagine many of these registrations were made for compliance purposes.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the Renault Zoe secured its 3rd Best Seller title, after the 2016 and '17 trophies, the French hatchback managed to beat last year winner, the Tesla Model 3, thanks to a deep refresh done in late 2019, that allowed it to more than double its sales in 2020, touching the 100,000 units in one year. 

The runner-up Tesla Model 3 saw its deliveries dip 8% regarding 2019, from 95,000 units to the current 87,000, and this in a year of disruptive growth, which could raise the question: Is the Tesla Model Y shadow already making itself felt?

The last place of the podium went to the VW ID.3 rise, that jumped 3 spots in the last stage of the race, allowing the German EV to win its first medal, surely the first of many.

A reference also to the Nissan Leaf, that jumped to #7, which was still insufficient to reach the 4th spot it had in 2019.

On the PHEV League, after years and years of domination, it was the Best Seller since 2012, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was finally beaten!

Thanks to a year end peak, the Mercedes A250e managed to surpass the Japanese SUV and the Volvo XC40 PHEV, allowing the Mercedes compact model to win the category 2020 race, while earning the #10 position in the plugin table. For reference, in 2019, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV ended in #3, only behind the Renault Zoe and Tesla Model 3, so we now have a completely BEV Top 9!

Looking at the remaining position changes, the Volvo XC60 PHEV and BMW i3 were up one position, to #15 and #16 respectively, while the Mercedes GLC300e/de joined the table in December, ending the year in #19.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (12% share, up 1%) won the makers title, with the German brand jumping from 5th in 2019 to the leadership! Not Bad for a Year Zero...

The Silver Medal changed hands in the last stage of the race, with Mercedes (9%) beating Renault (also 9%) by just 5,000 units, this is the Three-pointed-star manufacturer first podium position, while Renault repeated the 2019 Bronze medal.

Outside the podium, BMW (8%) managed to beat Tesla and Volvo (both with 7% share), in the race for the 4th position.

Interestingly, if Volkswagen and Mercedes joined the podium, BMW was down from 2nd in 2019 to 4th, while the 2019 Best Seller Tesla was down to #5, with its share dropping from 20% in 2019, to the current 7%.

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan sales ended in another galaxy, although it has seen its sales drop by 8%.

In fact, Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, at least until its Model Y sibling lands, as the Polestar 2 (record 3,188 units last month) seems too niche for the moment, and with expansion plans only set to be enabled by mid-2021, don't expect much more from the Sino-Swede in 2021.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it comes close to the the Mercedes EQC...Which, by the way, has beaten once again its personal best, having delivered 2,979 units last month, so it seems the Mercedes midsize SUV slooow ramp up still hasn't ended, and should continue in the following months.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace profited from the new, cheaper, EV320 version, to suddenly jump its registrations to 4,635 units, the Sports SUV best score ever. Now, how much of these were self-registrations?...  

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring 5,296 units last month, with its sales growing 26% YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will the growth rates will be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...With Audi already discounting its big EV, expect this moment to come soon.

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (2,209 units last month, a new record) accelerating its sales once again, the main interest layed on the 3rd spot, where the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (1,367 units) has managed to beat both flagship Teslas in December.

Still, in the whole of 2020, the Tesla Model X was 3rd, with 6,253 units, but in 2021 there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), that have potential to beat the Porsche Taycan saleswise, making the 2021 race all the more interesting to follow, but should also render the Big Teslas even more irrelevant. Something needs to be done...

Europe November 2020

Record Month! 

Despite having the overall automotive market in the doghouse (-14% YoY), Europe's passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered a record 166,000 registrations in November (+198% YoY), placing last month plugin share at 16% share (8% BEV), helping numbers to rise 123%, to over 1 million units, pulling the market into the...Disruption Zone, as the 2020 PEV share crossed north of 10% mark (5.4% for BEVs alone), so we can say with some certainty that part of the fall on the overall market has more to do with the disruption provoked by plugins than Covid-related issues. So, let the games begin...

...And let's not forget that December should bring also another record month, so we should see some 15%-plus 20% market share in the last month of they year...

Looking back, imagine that in January i was feeling adventurous by predicting 6% plugin share at the end of this year....after all, 2019 ended with 3.6% (2.2% BEV), which was already over 1% above the 2018 market share (2.5% PEV share)...Oh, how times have changed!

So...Will we see the plugin share hit 20% in 2021?

BEVs are running fast (83.512 units, +182% YoY), but PHEVs are going faster (+217%), with these last ones hitting new record month (82,743) for the second time in a row, pulling the BEV/PHEV breakdown to parity between both technologies, although YTD, plugin hybrids are still below (47% vs 53% share) fully electrics.

Last month Best Seller was the Renault Zoe, that managed to beat the VW ID.3, but December should be all about the race between the Tesla Model 3 and the VW new EV, as i believe both models are going to have a deliveries high tide, with Volkswagen trying to out-Tesla the US carmaker.

This podium is also a sign that the plugin market is merging with the major trends of Europe's overall automotive market, as November's Top 2 (ID.3 and Zoe)  are the same as the longtime two Best Sellers in Europe (#1 VW Golf and #2 Renault Clio).

Looking at November Top 5 Models:

#1 Renault Zoe – November was another good month for the French EV, with 9,953 deliveries of the Renault model, with the maker going all in and milking its EV until the last drop, in order to keep five-digit scores until the end of the year and recover the European Best Seller title. Last month, the main market was Germany (4,287 units), followed by France (2,944), with Italy (555 units) and the UK (450) also helping along. In December, expect the Zoe to end in 3rd, behind the high tide Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3, but the 20,000 units advantage that it has collected throughout the year, should be enough to keep the YTD leadership and become the 2020 Best Seller in Europe. 

#2 Volkswagen ID.3 - The much antecipated German EV wasn't able to win the November trophy over the Renault Zoe, delivering just 8,496 registrations, which might look underwhelming, but then again, it could be Volkswagen downplaying in November, in order to have a surprise high tide in December, as i suspect it will happen. The first MEB-platform based EV had its main markets in Germany (2,439), the Netherlands (1,485), Norway (986), and Sweden (773). Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 for the December Best Seller title. 

#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Hyundai's star EV seems to have stabilized at 5,000-plus performances, as the 5,375 deliveries in November can prove. With the upcoming Ioniq 5 BEV  compact crossover said to be a small revolution in the EV World, one wonders if the Kona EV won't suffer from the new internal competition. Unless Hyundai lowers its price...But enough of futurology, and back to last month performance, Germany was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 2,474 deliveries, followed by the Netherlands (529 units), Norway (355) and France (344).

#4 Tesla Model 3 - Last years Best Selling EV in Europe delivered 5,014 units, which while is not a record for a second-month-of-quarter performance, is not too shabby either, meaning that the Tesla midsizer seems to have (finally!) found its cruise speed. The sports sedan main markets in November were Germany (1,617 deliveries), the UK (900 units), France (501) and Switzerland (356). Expect the Model 3 to have another high tide in December and win next month Best Seller title, but it will have to look over its shoulder and check where the VW ID.3 is, as the unassuming hatchback is looking to steal the show from the Californian in the last minute. 

#5 Mercedes A250e – Thanks to competitive pricing (for a Premium brand), usable electric range (64 kms / 40 mi WLTP), and even CCS availability, the compact Mercedes has become the star player in the PHEV field, with November registering 4,517 units, with its biggest markets being Germany (1,612 units), closely followed by the UK, with some 1,200 registrations, while France (443 units, new record) is the 3rd largest market at some distance of the first two. Will this be the 2020 PHEV Best Seller?

Looking at the remaining November Best Sellers, the BMW 330e was #6, with its second record score in a row, in this case 4,229 deliveries, most of them being the new station wagon body, a real no brainer in wagon-loving Europe, that others have already been doing for years (Volvo and Mercedes are just two examples).

In a record month, several models hit their personal bests, like the fresh (now in 8th Generation body) VW Golf PHEV, that scored 3,618 units, beating the nameplate's long running record score, set in December 2015, so expect the compact plugin hybrid to be a strong candidate to the 2021 Best Selling PHEV title, so we might even see Volkswagen collecting both the BEV and PHEV Best Seller titles next year... 

Another known model on the rise is the #12 Smart Fortwo EV, that scored a record 3,371 registrations in November, so despite the underwhelming specs, the tiny EV is growing fast, highlighting the latest trend in Europe: City EVs are rising, besides the Fortwo EV record score, its slightly longer sibling Forfour EV also hit a best ever performance (984 units), like the VW e-Up (3,318), while the new Renault Twingo EV (1,009) and Fiat 500e (1,285) are ramping up deliveries, with the Italian model in particular having potential to be Top 20 material.  

The Smart record performances highlight Daimler's rise to stardom, as the German Group continues to have records galore every month, with 7(!) Mercedes plugin models (B-Class, E-Class, CLA, GLA, GLE, EQC, EQV) hitting record scores. 

A reference also to the #19 Mazda MX-30, despite being imagined like a niche model, the truth is that as Mazda's only available EV, it will have to sell in large numbers, in order to lower the maker CO2-related fines, so the quirky crossover is being registered in surprising volumes, with November representing a new record, with 2,640 units. 

Outside the Top 20, a reference to the 2,212 registrations of the Peugeot 2008 EV, with the French carmaker already having the small 208 EV in cruise speed, now it's time to ramp up the electric crossover production, speaking of compact crossovers, FCA is ramping up the production of the Jeep Compass PHEV, having registered 1,466 units last month, while Volvo has finally launched the BEV version of its XC40 best seller, with 1,311 deliveries in its first month and Land Rover has done the same with the PHEV versions of the posh Range Rover Evoque (1,411 units) and family-friendly Discovery Sport (721).

Looking at the 2020 ranking, the podium positions seem already decided, so the big news is the jump to 6th of the VW ID.3, that should climb a few more positions in December, probably ending the year in #4, just in time to surpass its e-Golf antecessor. 

A secondary effect of the ID.3 rise, is that we now have a fully BEV Top 9, followed by 7 PHEV models, which makes the table look like there is an "A" League, made only by the best BEVs, and a "B" League, with the best PHEVs.

On the "B" League, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV managed to keep the category leadership, but it will be hard for the Japanese SUV to keep ahead of its most direct competitors in the last stage of the race, as the #11 Volvo XC40 PHEV (and #13 VW Passat GTE, and #12 Mercedes A250e, and #14 BMW 330e...) are all running at a faster pace than the veteran Japanese, so at least some of them should surpass the Mitsubishi SUV in December, and discuss between themselves the PHEV title in the final days of 2020. Should the Outlander PHEV lose the 2020 title, it will be an historic moment, as it will be the first time since 2012 that the Outlander isn't the Best Selling PHEV in Europe! 

Among them, the one i think will take the PHEV Best Seller title is the Mercedes A250e. Any other bets?

Looking at the remaining position changes, the VW e-Up was up one spot, to #18, while we have a return to the Top 20, with the Smart Fortwo EV showing up in #20.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (11% share, up 1%) has gained precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), that now is more concerned in keeping the 2nd position away from the #3 Mercedes (9%), that profits from its strong (and long) lineup to gain ground over the French brand.

Outside the podium, Tesla, BMW and Volvo, all with 7% share, are looking to join the podium in December, only Tesla has real chances to do so, thanks to the expected end of quarter high tide.

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan sales are in another galaxy, and although it has seen its sales drop a worrying 36% YoY last month, the December high tide should compensate it.

In fact, Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, at least until its Model Y sibling lands, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (1,336 units last month) seems to have already peaked out this year, and with expansion plans only set to be enabled in 2021, don't expect much more from the Sino-Swede.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it sells half of the Mercedes EQC...Which, by the way, has beaten once again its personal best, having delivered 2,343 units last month, so it seems the Mercedes midsize SUV slooow ramp up still hasn't ended, and should continue in the following months.

As for the remaining podium, the Jaguar i-Pace profited from the new, cheaper, EV320 version, to jump its sales to 1,916 units, the Sports SUV best score in 23 months and a 89% jump YoY. It seems the Austrian-built Jaguar still has some tricks (ahem, lowering its outrageous high price to something more palatable...) up its sleeve to fight the newcomers. 

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring 3,459 units last month, with its sales jumping 162% YoY, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will this kind of growth rates will be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...With Audi already discounting its big EV, expect this moment to come soon.

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (2,151 units last month, a new record) accelerating its sales once again, the main interest layed on the 3rd spot, where the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (474 units) has managed to beat both flagship Teslas, with the Model X having 293 deliveries in November and the Model S some 287 units, with the higher riding Tesla witnessing a steep fall of 45% YoY, which should worry Tesla, as steep drops have been the norm for the big Teslas throughout the year, and while this is still a rarefied market, all it took was Mercedes to convert the Passenger version of a Van into electric drive, which basically it's what the EQV is, to beat both the Model S and X.

In 2021 there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), that have potential to beat the Porsche Taycan saleswise, making the 2021 race all the more interesting to follow, but should also render the Big Teslas even more irrelevant. Something needs to be done...

Europe October 2020

VW ID.3 galore...

 

13% share in (almost) record month! 

Despite having the overall automotive market in the doghouse (-27% YoY), Europe's passenger plugin market is on fire, having registered 147,000 registrations in October (+195% YoY), the second best score ever, only behind the 160,000 units of last September, and placing last month plugin share at 13% share (6.5% BEV), helping the YTD numbers to rise 113%, to over 900,000 units, and pulling the 2020 PEV share to 9.5% (5.1% for BEVs alone), so we can say with some certainty that the disruptive 10% mark will already be hit this year! 

And let's not forget that December should bring also another record month, do hear some 15%-plus market share in the last month of they year?

Looking back, imagine that in January i was feeling adventurous by predicting 6% plugin share at the end of this year....after all, 2019 ended with 3.6% (2.2% BEV), which was already over 1% above the 2018 market share (2.5% PEV share)...Oh, how times have changed!

..So if disruption is already starting in 2020, now imagine next year! #Disruption '21!

This time BEVs (73.257 units, +192% YoY), grew at the same pace as PHEVs, whose sales continue jumping through the roof (+198%), allowing these last ones to hit a new record month (73,349), pulling the BEV/PHEV breakdown to parity between both technologies, although YTD, plugin hybrids are still below (47% vs 53% share) fully electrics.

Last month Best Seller was the VW ID.3, that managed to beat the Renault Zoe in October, and benefited from the first-month-of-quarter low tide of the Tesla Model 3.

This podium is also a sign that the plugin market is merging with the major trends of Europe's overall automotive market, as October's Top 2 (ID.3 and Zoe)  in the plugin market are in the same order as the longtime two Best Sellers in Europe (#1 VW Golf and #2 Renault Clio).

Looking at September Top 5 Models:

#1 Volkswagen ID.3 - Veni, vidi, vici. After years of anticipation, the 2021 Best Selling EV in Europe has finally landed, and in only its second month on the market, the new German hatchback has hit its first five-digit score, with 10,584 registrations, surely the first of several monthly wins for VW's new baby. The first  MEB-platform based EV had its main markets in October in Norway (2,475 units), Germany (2,647) and the Netherlands (2,789), with France (524) being a distant 4th. Expect VW's new baby to become a familiar face in the medal positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and Renault Zoe for the monthly Best Seller titles. 

#2 Renault Zoe – October brought a another good month for the French EV, with 9,890 deliveries to the Renault model, with the maker going all in and milking its EV until the last drop, in order to keep five-digit scores until the end of the year and recover the European Best Seller title. Last month, the main market was Germany (5,010 units, new record and #7 in the local overall market!), followed by France (2,507), with the UK (500 units) and Italy (306) also helping along. For the coming months, expect the Zoe to continue on the top positions, running with the Tesla Model 3 and VW ID.3 for the leadership. 

#3 Hyundai Kona EV – Chronically limited by production constraints, Hyundai has finally opened the flood gates, thanks to the Czech plant production, and after scoring consecutive record months, the model seems to be stabilizing at 5,000-plus performances, as the 5,441 deliveries in October seem to signal.  Back to last month performance, the Germany was the best market for the Hyundai nameplate, with a record 1,932 deliveries, followed by France (627 units) and Norway (519). 

#4 Mercedes A250e – Thanks to competitive pricing (for a Premium brand), usable electric range (64 kms / 40 mi WLTP), and even CCS availability, the compact Mercedes has become the maker star player and the most recent Best Seller in the PHEV field, with October registering 4,272 units, with the biggest market its home Germany (1,547 units), closely followed by the UK, with some 1,200 registrations, while France (395 units, new record) is the 3rd largest market at some distance of the first two. Will this be the 2020 PHEV Best Seller?

#5 Kia Niro EV - After years of production constraints, Kia has finally found enough batteries to comply with the large demand of its more family-friendly version of the successful (and not so long ago, also battery-constrained) Hyundai Kona EV, having delivered 3,938 units. Kia's current star player main markets in October were the UK (800 units), Netherlands (752) and France (678), with Germany (421) not far off. In fact, unlike other makers, that focus deliveries in a couple of countries, starving the rest, Kia is allocating deliveries in a more democratic manner, with 8 countries having 3-digit performances in October. 

Looking at the remaining October Best Sellers, the BMW 330e jumped to #7, and with a record score, in this case 3,895 deliveries, most of them being from the new station wagon body, a real no brainer in wagon-loving Europe, that others have already been doing for years (Volvo and Mercedes are just two examples), but BMW only now has started to deliver its midsize PHEV in SW body.

In a record month, several models hit their personal bests, in the 5 VW Group models in this Top 20, 3 (VW ID.3, VW Passat GTE, Audi Q5 PHEV) hit record deliveries, while the fresh (now in 8th Generation body) VW Golf PHEV scored 2,986 units in its landing month, the nameplate's best score since December 2015. 

Another recent addition is the Renault Captur PHEV, that thanks to a swift ramp up, has already registered 2,893 units last month, helping Renault to broaden its lineup, that so far only lived from the Zoe's fortunes.

On the BEV side, we also have models shining, like the Mini Cooper EV, that hit a record 2,477 registrations last month, while the Smart Fortwo EV had its best performance ever, with 2,847 units, highlighting Daimler's rise to stardom, as the German Group had records galore last month, with both Smart EVs scoring record results (the Forfour EV had 891 registrations), and 7(!) Mercedes plugin models (B-Class, C-Class, CLA, GLA, GLE, EQC, EQV) hitting record scores, and the Mercedes E300e/de (2,164 units) having a year best performance. Sure, most are PHEVs, but the 1,884 EQCs delivered in October allowed it to be  that month best Selling midsize BEV, ahead of the Tesla Model 3, Polestar 2, BMW i...Oh, right...The iX3 still hasn't landed yet...  

Outside this Top 20, a reference to the 1,881 deliveries of the new Mazda MX-30, with the Japanese carmaker promoting (as in, hard discounting, with 6,000€ already being taken off the initial pricing...) as much as it can its uniquely-designed electric crossover, in order to comply with this year's EU CO2 emission rules, while on the PSA field, it's time to ramp up Citroen's first PHEV, with the C5 Aircross PHEV registering 1,925 units, while Peugeot is ramping up its 2008 EV, with the crossover reaching 1,943 units in October.

Looking at the 2020 ranking, there were several position changes in the Top 10, with the most important being the Hyundai Kona EV taking over the 3rd spot from the sunset-mode VW e-Golf, while the troubled Ford Kuga PHEV fell from #6 to #10, to the benefit of the Peugeot 208 EV, up one spot, to #6, and the Kia Niro EV, that jumped from 10th to 7th, thus making a fully BEV Top 8!

And next month it should be a fully BEV Top 9, as the rising star VW ID.3 joined the table in #12 and should jump to 6th(ish) in November.

On the PHEV field, if the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV recovered the category leadership, this shouldn't be for long, as the #11 Volvo XC40 PHEV (and #13 VW Passat GTE, and #14 Mercedes A250e...) are running at a faster pace than the veteran Japanese, so at least some of them should surpass the Mitsubishi SUV in the last two stages of the race, and discuss between themselves the PHEV title in the final days of 2020. Should the Outlander PHEV lose the 2020 title, it will be an historic moment, as it will be the first time since 2012 that the Outlander isn't the Best Selling PHEV in Europe! 

Looking at other position changes, the BMW 3303 is now the top selling BMW, in #16, having surpassed the veteran BMW i3, while the Volvo XC60 PHEV, fell from #12 to #15, despite having a record score (2,719 units) in October. In a surging market, sometimes doing your best just isn't enough to stay afloat...

Besides the aforementioned VW ID.3, we have another new face in the Top 20, with the Audi Q5 PHEV SUV joining the table in #20, being the 6th VW Group model in this Top 20.

In the brands ranking, Volkswagen (10% share) is keeping precious ground over the runner-up Renault (9%), while Tesla (7%, down 2% share) lost the 3rd spot to Mercedes (9%, up 1%) strong (and long) lineup.

Outside the podium, BMW (7% down 1%), and Volvo (7%, down 1%) are running for #5, as it will be unlikely they will be able to keep up with Tesla's upcoming end of quarter high tide.

BEV D-Segment / Midsize category

Tesla's midsize sedan sales are in another galaxy, and although it has seen its sales drop a worrying 47% YoY last month, the December high tide should compensate it.

In fact, Tesla's midsizer won't have significant competition in the near future, as the recently arrived Polestar 2 (1,564 units last month) seems to have already peaked out this year, and with expansion plans only set to be enabled in 2021,  don't expect much more from the Sino-Swede.

The upcoming Ford Mustang Mach-E production levels are still a question mark, and as for the BMW iX3, i believe the Bavarian maker will already be happy if it sells  half of the Mercedes EQC...

The real competition should only come when the Tesla Model Y lands, not only it will drain the Model 3 sales, but it should also outsell it.

As for the remaining podium, the Mercedes EQC has increased its lead over the Jaguar i-Pace, profiting from the sales decline of the British sports SUV (-17% YoY, to 891 units), with the slow ramp up of the Mercedes electric SUV already starting to reach significant volumes (1,884 units in October), allowing the electric Merc to be October's Best Selling midsize BEV.

BEV E-Segment / Full size category

The e-Tron domination is unquestionable and continues to grow, with the Big Audi scoring  3,451 units last month, doubling the numbers of 12 months ago, considering the already significant sales volumes of the Belgian-made Audi, one wonders for how long will this kind of growth rates be sustained, and when will the peak e-Tron moment arrive...With Audi already discounting its big EV, expect this moment to come soon.

With the #2 Porsche Taycan (1,381 units last month) in cruise speed, both flagship Tesla deliveries were low, with the Model X having 310 units in October and the Model S some 238 units, but interestingly, the higher riding Tesla saw a 6% YoY increase in deliveries, while the lower riding nameplate deliveries remained stable.

This is still a rarefied market, as the only other model with significant registrations last month was the luxury van with windows Mercedes EQV (131 units), but in the next few months there will be several models landing (Audi e-Tron GT, Mercedes EQS, BMW iNext...), so the 2021 race should be more interesting to follow.