Markets Roundup - December 2019

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2019:

China

* BAIC EU-Series #1 - First time winner, but in 2020 it will have more competition; 

* 1.2 million units - What a roller coaster, great first half of the year, then after the incentives change, a stark drop, with December ending with a sign of hope. And the Market Share reached 5.5%, above the share of the USA or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Second win for the Californian, but in 2020 the Model Y lands, so...Enjoy it while you can, Model 3;

* 325.000 sales - Poor second half of the year, leading to slight drop, to 2.0% share.

Europe

* Tesla Model 2 #1 - First title for Tesla in Europe, to be repeated in 2020, but in 2021, things should become more interesting;

* 564.000 units - Sales increased the pace, with the PEV share reaching 3.6%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now owning 64% of the market. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 44.000 units - What can i say, sales have (again) dropped and the PEV share has dropped to 0.8%. Disappointing.

Canada

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Canada's darling. At least until the Model y lands...

* 51.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.6%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - A new year, a new win for the Crossover, scoring another all-time record (14.000 units). The Kona EV is the leader in Korea.

* 34.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.9%. A mention to the Hyundai Nexo Fuel Cell, that registered 4,000 units, leading to a 0.2% share, being the only place FCEVs started to become common(ish).

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Tesla Model 3 lands and immediately becomes the Best Seller. PEV share jumped to 2.6% (up from 1.4% in 2018);

Israel - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was #1, market has beaten the 2018 records and reached 1.5% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Australia - Doubling sales (9,000 units), with the Tesla Model 3 stealing the show and winning the Best Seller title. The market share needle is finally starting to move (0.9% PEV share);

Brazil - Volvo XC60 PHEV was the Best Seller, in a year that things finally started to move upwards (1,500 units), although share wise, we are still rock bottom (0.1%);

Mexico - Tesla Model 3 steals the show and pulls the market up (1,400 units in total), but share wise, it is still in its infancy (0.1%);

Colombia - Fast growth is moving up the needle (0.5% share), with the BMW i3 becoming the 2019 Best Seller;

South Africa - Jaguar and Land Rover came into play and together with BMW, they are the only ones pulling the market up, allowing it to reach record heights (300 units...);

Taiwan - Tesla Model 3 disrupts the market, making it grow 5-fold, while the plugin share finally starts to move (0.4% share);

Hong Kong - Although still far from the 2017 record (4,000 units), the 2019 result (2,000 units) allowed it to come alive again and reach some 5% share;

Singapore - A record 1,400 units allowed this market to reach 1.9%, with the 2019 Best Seller being the Hyundai Kona EV; 

Looking for EV's - Hong Kong and Macau

Tesla Model X in the Hong Kong narrow streets

HONG KONG

Crossing the border from Shenzhen into Hong Kong is like leaving the alternate dimension that is the Chinese EV Market, but stepping into another that is still not quite ours, if in the other side of the border, all you saw were BYD cars, e6, Qin, Tang...Now we seemed to have crossed into some Tesla-addict reality, where Teslas were everywhere.

I mean, literally Everywhere. And not just the older Model S, even the recently arrived to HK Model X (P90D for the most part) was pretty common, this surprising landscape made me even increase significantly my estimates for Tesla deliveries in the territory, as not even Oslo has so many Teslas per square kilometer. 

Well, if there are so many Teslas coming from posh Mid-Town to crowd the downtown area, then the BMW i3 will surely be also common, right?

Not really, i only saw three units, which is kind of a paradox, if the hard-to-park Tesla yachts are a common sight in the crowded streets of the Territory, the Ideal-for-the-City-but-Still-Posh BMW i3 is something of a rarity. Go figure peoples tastes, right?

Beyond these two models, there wasn't much more to talk about, i saw a couple of Nissan Leaf and a Renault Fluence ZE(!). Yes, the French-Korean sedan still zooms the local streets which, considering the enormous amount of Teslas around, shouldn't be a surprise, as local buyers seem to have mastered the fine art of parking everywhere, almost on top of each other...  


MACAU

I was expecting to see a similar picture in the former Portuguese concession as in Hong Kong, with plenty of Tesla and a couple of other EV's, just to make the thing a little more interesting.

Not really, despite spotting two EV's, one Nissan Leaf on the road and a Nissan e-Evalia charging at a company parking lot, the main headlines were the complete absence of Teslas.

Considering the amount of Maserati, Bentley and other exotica running around the Casino area, it was a bit disconcerting that you saw no Teslas.

Were Teslas been hiding, knowing i was in the neighborhood? Was there a Tesla concentration on the other side of the territory that i just missed? Who knows.

One thing is for sure, with so much money being made (Lost?) at the local Casinos, one would expect Tesla would grab some of those millionaires and sold them a couple of units... 

Hong Kong December 2015

Hong Kong and Tesla love affair doesn´t seem to end

Tesla and the Rest

The Hong Kong EV Market ended the year smashing previous records, with an EV Share of 4.84%, the third highest in the world, with the 2.600 units sold throughout this year sinply obliterating the 246 units of 2014...

Tesla has been an undeniable success, leaving the rest of the EV competitors in the dust and earning itself an amazing Third Place in the general ranking.

Looking at the rest of the EV's, the picture isn't so spectacular: The runner-up BMW i3 registered one-tenth of Tesla (225 units), but it was still a 67% improvement YoY. 

Looking at the BEV / PHEV breakdown, Plug-in Hybrids were a minority, with only 6% being of that variety, but in 2014 they represented only 1%...

Pl	Hong Kong	Dec.	YTD	%	'14Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S BMW i3 e)	250 10	2.221 225	82 8	1 2
3 4	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV e) Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	10 2	120 64	4 2	N/A N/A
5	BMW i8		39	1	7
6 7	Nissan Leaf Mitsubishi I-Miev	1	29 1	1 0	3 5
TOTAL		273	2.699	100

e) Estimate

Hong Kong October 2015

Hong Kong and Tesla love affair doesn´t seem to end

Tesla and the Rest

The Hong Kong EV Market continues hot as hot cakes, with an EV Share of 2.53%, the fourth highest in the world, only behind Iceland, Netherlands and Norway, with the current 1.162 units sold this year simply obliterating previous records, as is the EV Share, up five-fold(!) regarding last years 0,46%...

There aren't official numbers, but Tesla has been an undeniable success, leaving the rest of the EV competitors in the dust, with the once promising BMW i3 registering only eight units last month, a far cry from the 30-something average of the first half of the year, but with 206 units to date (A 53% increase YoY), it is a success in its own way. 

In a van-friendly market, the e-NV200 is Third, while the Nissan Leaf might still remove the BMW i8 from #4 until year end.  

But back to Tesla, with the EV market pretty much all to itself, the american car can now focus on their real competitors, the E-Segment luxury sedans from Mercedes, BMW and Audi...

Right now, the Model S is Second, behind the Mercedes E-Class (98 sales in October, 948 YTD) and ahead of the BMW 5-Series (77/636), the prospects for the future will be that it will be hard to remove the E-Class from the leadership (Rich people do love their Mercs here, last month the S-Class sold 88 units!), but a comfortable second is most likely, which is a great sign for future acceptance of EV's in this market.

Pl	Hong Kong	Oct.	YTD	%	'14Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S e) BMW i3	80 8	830 206	71 18	1 2
3	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	3	59	5	N/A
4	BMW i8		39	3	7
5 6	Nissan Leaf Mitsubishi I-Miev	11	27 1	2 0	3 5
TOTAL		102	1.162	100

Source: BSCB

e) Estimate

Hong Kong July 2015

HK has become a big fan of them

Tesla Superstar

The Hong Kong EV Market continues on fire, translated in an EV Share of 2.58%, the third highest in the world, only behind the Netherlands and Norway.

There aren't official numbers, but Tesla has been an undeniable success, being a frequent presence in the general Top 10 (And several monthly E-segment/full-size trophies), thus outselling their german counterparts, while the BMW i3 is also enjoying the taste of success, selling 179 units to date, with perspectives of doubling  sales regarding last year. 

In a van-friendly market, the e-NV200 is also showing itself, preserving its Third spot from the rest of the competition.  

Pl	Hong Kong	July	YTD	%	'14Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S e) BMW i3	90 17	560 179	66 21	1 2
3	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	2	53	6	N/A
4	BMW i8		37	4	7
5 6	Nissan Leaf Mitsubishi I-Miev	1	13 1	2 0	3 5
TOTAL		110	843	100

Source: HKMTA

e) Estimate

Hong Kong May 2015

HK has become a big fan of them

Tesla Superstar

The Hong Kong EV Market continues to amaze, with sales going through the roof and record sales happening almost every month, translated in an EV Share of 2.8%, the third highest in the world, only behind the Netherlands (5.65%) and Norway (21,8%).

Tesla has struck gold here, with more than 400 units sold this year, while the BMW i3 is also enjoying the taste of success, selling 124 units to date and will probably double the number of sales it had last year. 

In a van-friendly market, the e-NV200 is also showing itself, preserving its Third spot from the rest of the competition.  

Pl	Hong Kong	May	YTD	%	'14Pl
1 2	Tesla Model S e) BMW i3	50 39	420 124	66 20	1 2
3	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	14	50	8	N/A
4	BMW i8	2	30	5	7
5 6	Nissan Leaf Mitsubishi I-Miev	2	10 1	2 0	3 5
TOTAL		107	635	100

Source: HKMTA

e) Estimate

Hong Kong February 2015

E-NV200 Superstar - Hong Kong Edition

This small EV market has been on fire lately (The '15 EV Share is at 1.18%, twice as much as last year), with the BMW i3 proving to be an instant hit with consumers, after shattering the YTD record for a single model last year (135 units), this year it continues high above the competition, winning ground to the competition in every passing month.

Well, that was the case until last month, when out of nowhere (Previously it had only two registrations), the Nissan e-NV200 jumped to the Monthly Best Seller position in February, with 19 units, it's first Monthly Trophy anywhere in the World.  

If Nissan's van continues to record such numbers in the near future, both BMW and Tesla (First and Second in the YTD ranking) will have to work hard to keep the e-NV200 at bay and prevent it from being #1. 

The BMW i8 has also impressed last month, selling 10 units and helping the brand to continue sovereign in this market.

Pl	Hong Kong	Feb.	YTD	%	'14Pl
1 2	BMW i3 Tesla Model S e)	13 10	46 25	42 23	1 2
3	Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia	19	21	19	N/A
4	BMW i8	10	12	11	7
5 6	Nissan Leaf Mitsubishi I-Miev	4 0	5 1	5 1	3 5
TOTAL		56	110

Source: HKMTA

e) Estimate

Hong Kong October 2014

- ...Begin...HK...invasion...
- Yes, Master.

What The... Edition

Hong Kong hasn't been much on the radar here on EVS, but it looks things will change, after reporting that in September BMW and Tesla were taking over this little EV market, October came and left us with an unbelievable result from BMW, 69 registrations is by miles away the best result any individual EV had in a single month and it's also the first time that this kind of cars appear on the general ranking radar, these numbers earned the little i3 a #15 place in last month general ranking, being the second best selling BMW in Hong Kong, only outsold the 3-series.

We don't have official numbers from Tesla, but there are signs that their sales are also taking off, so it looks that we will have a sudden awakening of this small market, which is already being translated on the EV Share, now at 0,37%, way higher than the 0,18% recorded a couple of months ago and closer the 0,39% of last year, record that will most likely be shattered this year..  

Further down, there is only one registration, a Mitsu I-Miev was sold, while all sales seem to have been dried out by the new Top Dogs. 

Pl	Hong Kong	Oct.	YTD	%	'13Pl
1 1	BMW i3 Tesla Model S e)	69 20	87 38	53 23	N/A N/A
1	Nissan Leaf		18	11	3
4	Renault Twizy		13	8	7
5 6	Mitsubishi I-Miev Mitsubishi Minicab Miev	1	5 3	3 2	6 5
TOTAL		90	164

Source: HKMTA

e) Estimate

Hong Kong September 2014

Premium Flavor Edition

This small EV market this year has been one of the few markets where plug-ins were down, with the usual major players, Renault and Nissan, selling less than expected.

But two Premium manufacturers are helping the market to turn around (September was the best sales month of the year), and at the same time break the Renault-Nissan Alliance domination, BMW sold ten i3 in Hong Kong last month, the best sales result made by anyone this year, while Tesla pulled its Model S to the YTD leadership, which is currently shared by a troika: Alongside the american Sports Sedan, we have also the BMW i3 and Nissan Leaf, all with 18 units sold.  

Further down, the Renault Twizy is #4 with 13 sales, followed by the Mitsubishi Miev family, with the I-Miev, with 4 units and finally the Minicab Miev in #6 with 3. 

Pl	Hong Kong	Sept.	YTD	%	'13Pl
1 1	BMW i3 Tesla Model S e)	10 5	18 18	24 24	N/A N/A
1	Nissan Leaf	3	18	24	3
4	Renault Twizy		13	18	7
5 6	Mitsubishi I-Miev Mitsubishi Minicab Miev		4 3	6 4	6 5
TOTAL		18	74

Source: HKMTA

e) Estimate