Tariffs and the Difference between Chinese BEVs & PHEVs

Comparing the best selling Chinese BEVs’ competitiveness to the local competition, and then doing the same for the best selling Chinese PHEVs, we notice the difference that increased tariffs make and the reason why I think China’s top OEMs will focus on the PHEV market in the near future.

OEMs growth - July 2020

 

If the plugin market as a whole grew 76% in July, in that period, some OEMs grew above average, so this post mentions who was in the fast lane, last month.

Average in July: +76% growth YoY.

Fastest growers:

#1 - PSA (+2.477% YoY);

#2 - Ford Group (628%);

#3 - Volvo Group (360%);

#4 - Daimler (351%);

#5 - VW Group (268%).

For further information, Hyundai-Kia was up 91% YoY and Tesla 49%.

Of course, this simplistic approach is skewed to help smaller OEMs, because if you sold 2 units instead of 1, it means a 100% growth, hence the success of the Top 3 OEMs.

So the best approach is to look at total volume, and here, the OEMs that grew more regarding July 2019, volume wise, are:

#1 - VW Group (24.909);

#2 - Daimler (11.534);

#3 - Tesla (10.816).

If the first spot of the Volkswagen Group can surprise some, if you think about the sales uptick that the German Conglomerate had in the past year, it should come as no surprise, as the sheer scale of the Group means that a couple percent of electrification translates into several thousand units.

The real surprise, including for me, is the second place of the Daimler Group (Mercedes + Smart), that just managed to overcome Tesla, mostly thanks to a surge in sales of the Smart brand, as well as the ramp up of the Mercedes PHEVs and even the EQC has started to be delivered in decent volumes.

Finally, Tesla. And a disclaimer. Because this is the first month of the quarter, one shouldn't read too much into these numbers, as the previous normal quarters (Q4 2019; Q1 2020) saw Tesla increasing the seasonality of sales, with lower than average numbers in the first two months, and then an end of quarter month with higher than usual deliveries, so i wouldn't be surprised if the same happened again this quarter.

Global Sales by Automotive Group - Q1 2019

With the first quarter of the year done, it is time to see how the main PEV Automotive Groups have behaved:


1. BYD Group (71.504, +150%);

2. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

3. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (60.031, +21%);

4. Geely Group (34.746, +109%);

5. BMW Group (29.208, +5%).


As we can see, the top two makers are really in a league of their own, more than doubling their sales. The Alliance (including JMC) is still close to the other two, but its growth rate is smaller.

Regarding 2018, Geely has jumped 3 spots, to 4th, surpassing its Chinese rivals and a stagnating BMW.


Looking just at BEVs, the ranking goes like this:

1. Tesla (63.000, +105%);

2. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance (46.768, +16%);

3. BYD Group (45.758, +758%);

4. BAIC (26.106, +21%);

5. Hyundai-Kia (19.632, +132%).


In the BEV ranking, Tesla is the expected leader, while BYD BEVs are growing exponentially, surely surpassing the Alliance soon, while the #5 Hyundai-Kia are also on the fast lane.

Geneva Auto Show - My Top 5 EV's

After a brief visit to the Geneva Auto Show,  among an ocean of ICE Dinosaurs, these were my Top 5 EV's on the show:

Opel Ampera-e: Euro-flavored version of the Chevrolet Bolt, this car has everything to succeed this side of the ocean, besides the record-setting range, it it's fast, looks nice, right-sized, big on the inside...Speaking of inside, that was the only gripe i had with the car, considering it will still be an expensive car, they could have wasted a some bucks in choosing better materials and bringing a more upmarket feel to it. 

off-topic: Talking with the Opel people, they mentioned that PSA assured development rights over the Ampera-e platform, so i expect somewhere in the future a fully electric Opel Corsa, if not Astra (Not big enough, they said...).

DS7 PHEV - Said to arrive in 2019, this is the first true DS in Europe and besides the good looks, it will carry a plug, a first for the premium French brand, too bad it will have only 60 kms range...Anything less than 80 kms and it's a missed opportunity to make a difference on the Three Marys.

Kia Niro PHEV - Hot on the heels of the success of the HEV version, Kia did a no-brainer decision and made a PHEV version of the Niro. Expect it to become Kia's best selling plug-in once it lands in the market.

Volvo XC60 PHEV - A sort of one-size-less XC90, Volvo's midsize SUV inherited it's big brother PHEV architecture, so expect the XC90 T8 success to be replicated on a one-size-plus fashion.

Jaguar I-Pace - One word: Wicked!...Two Words: Shaguar... (Can't wait for the production version)

New Models for the Rest of 2015

New Models for the Second Half of the Year

Pure electrics have been resisting quite well to the new wave of PHEV's, mostly thanks to Tesla and the Nissan Leaf, but in the second half of year more Plug-in Hybrids will arrive, and PHEV Share should rebound, not only the refreshed Chevrolet Volt will make its impact, but there's a bundle of new PHEV's coming, particularly SUV's, and only one pure electric to help balance the numbers:

BYD Tang - The manufacturer claims this SUV has even more demand than the Qin, so the chinese  EV leadership should belong to it in the future. Sales target for this year: 15.000.

Chevrolet Volt II - Pushing the plug-in sales boundaries (only) in America, the second generation of the Volt could reach some 10.000 units this year and then step up in 2016.

Tesla Model X - Its production has been pushed back so many times that people wonder if it will land this year, after all there isn't still an official picture of the Real Deal, but having faith that deliveries do start as promised, in September, expect small numbers in the beginning, as Tesla will watch closely how the Falcon Wings Doors behave. Sales target for 2015: 4.000 units.

Volkswagen Passat GTE - There hasn't been many plug-ins in this particular segment, but the recent arrival of the Mercedes C-Class PHEV is just the first of many new players preparing to enter the game, the Passat GTE is another addition, based on the success of the regular Passat and of the Golf GTE, i think this has all the ingredients to replicate their success and reach some 3.000 units.

Hyundai Sonata Plug-In - The Korean automaker has arrived late to the plug-in train, is it ready to pick-up on the lost time? The Sonata PHEV is the first model on which we can evaluate if the Korean brand is going plug-in for real or not. Kia has only sold 1.500 Soul EV this year, so we'd better not expect a lot from these guys...Sales target: 1.500 units

BMW X5 Plug-In - The fourth plug-in of the BMW stable, it will be a strong contender for the Premium SUV PHEV trophy, but the Cayenne has already a big lead for this years trophy. Sales target: 1.500 units.

Volvo XC90 Plug-In - The regular XC90 is having an overwhelming reception and the T8 (PHEV) version waiting list is getting longer and longer...If Volvo can make them fast enough, i would say that some 1.500 units could be registered this year.

Audi Q7 e-Tron - Another addition to the Premium barge large SUV niche, Audi is looking to replicate the plug-in A3 in a XXL format. Sales target: 1.500 units.

BYD Song and Yuan - These smaller plug-in SUV's were shown earlier this year and the question remains: Will they arrive in time to land this year? If so, will they sell in significant numbers? My guess is a December launch, just in time to enter this year ranking.

New Cars for 2015

Here are some plug-ins that will make headlines in 2015:

BYD Tang: Plug-in SUV in China. Mission: To sell in the thousands per month...

The 2nd Gen Chevrolet Volt will be probably the most important launch of the year, volume wise

A rather Teutonic approach to plug-in cars, the Passat GTE intends to appeal to middle managers across Europe 

Tesla Model X: It was already in the 2014 Edition of this article...Will this time be for real?

Volvo XC90 T8: A Viking warship that is also eco-friendly...

Besides these, there are promises of a number of PHEV versions of regular cars, almost entirely of German origin, like the Merc C-Class, BMW X5 and 3-Series, Audi Q7 and A6, Volvo S60 and even Fiat-Chrysler is preparing a PHEV Minivan!

Finally, a question to our readers: Do you consider Fuel Cell Vehicles (Toyota Mirai, etc) as EV's?

ps - Merry Christmas, everyone!

2013 in Review

2013, or Year Three for the Modern Age of Electric Cars, has been full of new EV launches and landmarks, so let's look at some of them:

Tesla Model S Tops Norway Car Ranking

We knew this would come eventually, but few expected to be so soon, and it wasn´t a freak event, because the Nissan Leaf also topped Norway's chart in October and in November the Outlander PHEV did it in the Netherlands.


Global Sales Continue to Grow

After a shaky start, EV sales have increased greatly in the second half of the year, with global sales expected to arrive near the 200.000 units barrier, 40% more than a year ago.


EV Heaven Starts with an "N"

"N" for Norway and "N" for Netherlands. Both were already ahead of the curve regarding plug-ins, but this year their respective EV Shares grew significantly, with Norway going from 3,12% in 2012 to 5,43% in November '13 and the Netherlands now at 3,50%, up from 1,10% in '12.

Other markets to grow significantly their EV Shares were Iceland (0,21% in '12 Vs 0,88% right now) and Hong Kong (0,42% in '13 Vs 0,21% last year), on the other hand, plug-ins had setbacks in Spain, Ireland  and Israel, if the first two can be attributed to problems in their economies, the case of Israel has to do with the Better Place failure, also one of the events of the year.


Tesla Keeps on Growing

Despite costing twice as more as the average electric car, the California-based manufacturer is among the best-selling brands in the market (20k units this year) AND it still has production constraints, 2014 will be an important chapter in Tesla's history because not only it will finally have a global distribution network, but it will also double production capacity of the Model S and introduce the Model X, a crossover that many has been expecting impatiently...

Outlander PHEV Ups and Downs

This year has been a Roller Coaster Ride for Mitsubishi, after a great start for the Outlander PHEV in the beginning of the year, leading the Japanese EV market in March, the battery problems that came after put it on a several months production drought that could have hurt their career forever.

Fortunately for Mitsubishi, consumers didn't runaway (Also because there aren't other SUV's with a plug) and waited for the production to resume, originating a long reservations list that Mitsu is now delivering and beating sales records.


Volvo V60 Plug-In Hits the Jackpot

Europeans love Station Wagons just like they love diesel engines, so Volvo put 2+2 together and in the end of 2012 came up with the V60 Plug-In Hybrid.

At first it was just another step (Like the C30 Electric was before) in the future electrification of their lineup, but then reservations started to arrive and they didn't stopped pouring in, even when production passed from 1.000 to 5.000 units, then the swedish carmaker realized the hit they had on their hands and started to sell it across Europe with good results.

Now they are talking in 10.000 units for 2014 and a new XC90 Plug-in by the end of the year...

Quo Vadis, Zoe?

Renault had big hopes for its Zoe, wanting to make it a sort of Euro-Taste-Leaf and hoping it would lead plug-in sales in the Old Continent.

Despite a promising first half of the year, as new competition joined the race and sales started to grow in the summer, Zoe's sales started to suffer, in November it was just #5 in Europe, the next months should see the BMW i3 and VW e-Up! gaining traction, and i suspect that the french hatch sales will be on the menu of those two...


The Germans are Coming!

Until recently, German manufacturers had a pretty conservative approach towards Electric Cars and Alternative Fuels in general, with the only production EV being the french-german Smart Fortwo ED, and even this had limited availability.

This year things changed, first Smart increased production of its electric version and actually started to sell it willingly, then Porsche (Panamera S E-Hybrid), BMW (i3) and VW (e-Up!) recently introduced their first production models, and with more to come next year (BMW i8, VW e-Golf, Audi A3 e-tron, MB B-Class ED, Porsche 918...), it looks that german carmakers will catch up other EV makers fast.

BYD Qin

China still waiting in the sidelines  

With all the energy and pollution problems that the largest world economy has, one could expect that EV's would be a priority, only high import taxes, little consumer interest and domestic EV offer with limited appeal left the chinese plug-in market pretty much like last year, with sales hovering around 10.000 units/year and the little Chery QQ3 EV as the undisputed leader with half of the market.

The new additions (Roewe E50,  Springo EV) were flops, selling little more than a hundred units, while the promised gamechanger BYD Qin was successively postponed and went on sale just a few days ago. Could 2014 be any different? Let's hope so.


New Gen Hypercars grow a Plug

With the McLaren P1 in Geneva and Porsche 918 in Frankfurt ready for production, a new trend started to emerge in SportsCarLand: Electrification.

Besides the two above, there's also the hybrid Ferrari LaFerrari (Dumb name, awesome looks) and the soon-to-be-released BMW i8, along with others still-in-concept-car-form projects (Honda NSX, etc).

The reason for this? Yes, there is the matter of fuel consumption, but perhaps most importantly, it's a new way to increase power and a technological achievement that puts them ahead of the competition.

EV Business Case Q4 - 2013

Batteries are critical for EV's

Batteries Edition

Just like engines in Formula One cars, batteries are the most important component for plug-ins and the one thing that usually car manufacturers don't build in-house, preferring to buy them/cooperate from established battery makers.

Digging a little deeper and finding out the relationships between EV and battery makers allows us to see a somewhat concentrated market, where three manufacturers dominate 80% of the market: AESC, Panasonic and LG. Let's look at them more closely:

- AESC is a joint venture between NEC and Nissan and they provide batteries for the Nissan Leaf and most of Renault's EV's, thanks to the global success of the Nissan Leaf and with the help of Renault sales, this is the #1 battery manufacturer, grabbing some 33% of the EV market in 2013;

- LG has been cooperating with GM and Ford, providing batteries for their EV's, and on top of that, it also sells batteries to Renault, allowing the South Korean company to have some 24% of the EV batteries market;

- Panasonic is the third musketeer and the one with the most high profile customers: Toyota and Tesla use Panasonic batteries, if the first is leader in hybrid cars and an important player in EV's, the second is currently the main consumer of battery cells thanks to the cell-heavy batteries of the Model S. With talks of Tesla and Toyota cooperating in the future and with Tesla ambitious growth plan, Panasonic should do well in the next few years;

 - Other contenders are Lithium Energy Japan (GS Yuasa / Mitsubishi), providing batteries for Mitsubishi, Siemens has a partnership with Volvo and Deutsche ACCUmotive is the provider for the Smart ED, others develop batteries in-house (BYD, Bolloré), while other battery makers are still on their first stages of EV partnership (Toshiba is teaming up with Honda and there's rumors that Samsung will cooperate with Renault).

My 2013 EV Preview

Opel Ampera

Based on what the media said that this year was going to be like, with one side, known as tree huggers reporting that EV sales would stratospherically climb to record heights, and some manufacturers hoping saying that this was the year of the electric car, while the other side of the spectrum, like Fox News, was classifying this type of vehicle like a fad, forecasting that sooner than later, they would disappear again in the ocean of bad ideas, just like they did by the end of the 90's, early 00's.

Well, with more than 100.000 units sold from January until November, how does it look the EV market?

First fact: Pure electric cars (BEV) like Nissan Leaf aren't growing that much, if at all, range anxiety is a reality, price tags are still on the high side and they suffer the competition from improved gas powered cars and Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles (PHEV), which leads us to...

Second Fact: Until November, Plug-In Hybrids grew by more than 300%! Not only the Volt family removed Nissan Leaf from the #1 spot this year, but also Toyota Prius PHEV got in it's first year the #2 EV spot, leaving the Nissan in a surprising third place. And for the first time, there were more plug-in hybrid sales (55.000) than pure electrics (52.000). This leads me to think that people prefer to have a middle term between gas and electrics vehicles, even if they have to sacrifice the EV range.

Deep down, both ends of the spectrum were wrong, people didn't started to buy EV's just because they existed, but the electric thing isn't going away anytime soon, as sales keep growing in a steady pace, reaching more and more countries and next year there will be new manufacturers joining the party, with the existing ones reinforcing the investments, contributing for the EV market to grow from the 120.000 units of 2012 to some 180-220.000 by the end of next year.

Let's see some of these new models:

Cadillac ELR - Well, hello gorgeous! One of the most handsome cars to be launched this year and certainly the first Cadillac that doesn't remind of J.R. Ewing of Dallas or rap music celebrities, this is the real entry of the storied marque in the XXI century, too bad it will cost some 60.000$...

GM Springo - It's design didn't came from the future like a Fisker Karma, but being derived from a conventional car can be a quality, especially a popular one like the Chevrolet Sail, because it assures that it can be sold cheaper and in this case, "cheap" is an important asset. Although without a Chevrolet badge, this EV is part of GM's worldwide strategy and was made with the chinese market in mind. If it can crack that market, there's a open road to make it a major EV seller. But that is a big "if".

Renault Zoe - The fourth musketeer in Renault's charge in the electric market, this is the car that will decide if Carlos Ghosn push into BEV was visionary or not. A handsome B segment with 210 kms range for just 21.000 € (plus a monthly battery fee), apparently the Zoe as it all to become the best selling EV in Europe.

Ford C-Max Plug-In - This was launched just a couple of months ago and it's already making an impact on the US market, previewing a great 2013 for Ford on the EV front. Along with the Fusion Plug-in, these two cars will put the Blue Oval as challenger in the US market, preparing the way for a worldwide distribution and become Ford an EV global player.

Tesla Model S - If there is a poster car for the electric revolution, this is it. Great looks on the outside, spacious on the inside, powerful, and above all, with an unparalleled electric range, this is a car intended to be the best car in the world. It's not going to top ranking sales, but it will do wonders for EV visibility.For some reason Toyota and Daimler-Mercedes have agreed collaborations with start-up Tesla...

BYD Qin - Same goal as the Springo, different approach. Instead of a conventional design borrowed from a conventional  gas powered car, this is one stands out (especially the back) and has a Plug-In Hybrid powerplant instead of a pure electric approach. Visually appealing for chinese standards, the Qin has 315 hp in Hybrid mode, making it 2 seconds (0-62 in 6.9s) faster than the Chevrolet Volt. All things considered, it has a real chance to be successful outside its home market. Will it sell more more than its predecessor (F3 DM) in China? Probably, the question is how much.

Roewe E50 - Finally someone other than BYD playing the Plug-In game in China. Despite a low-profile launch last December, this funky little hatch delivered a good starting month at 238 cars, so BYD could have  a worthy contender here.

BMW i3 - The first true electric car from the bavarian maker, when it arrives to the market it will satisfy the ones who look for sporty DNA and the latest in technology (Built with carbon-fiber plastic), but don't mind to pay more for that. The question is how much more urbanites are willing to pay for it.

Volkswagen e-Up! - VW is coming late to the electric party, but it hopes to make an entrance with a splash and one of the first models will be this, an electrified version of the tiny Up!. With a promised price tag of 24.000 €, the e-Up! will help EV's popularity in Europe and especially in Germany, EU's largest market.

Volvo V60 Plug-In Hybrid - One of the favorite combos in Europe are station wagons with a diesel engine, so it isn't rocket science to think that adding electricity to that combination can be a sales success, so Volvo went for it and the first 1.000 units were sold even before the first car was delivered. The carmaker expects to sell 5.000 units in 2013, but i think that in this case actual sales will be stronger than the manufacturer's forecasts.