Tuesday, July 21, 2015

New Models for the Rest of 2015

New Models for the Second Half of the Year

Pure electrics have been resisting quite well to the new wave of PHEV's, mostly thanks to Tesla and the Nissan Leaf, but in the second half of year more Plug-in Hybrids will arrive, and PHEV Share should rebound, not only the refreshed Chevrolet Volt will make its impact, but there's a bundle of new PHEV's coming, particularly SUV's, and only one pure electric to help balance the numbers:

BYD Tang - The manufacturer claims this SUV has even more demand than the Qin, so the chinese  EV leadership should belong to it in the future. Sales target for this year: 15.000.

Chevrolet Volt II - Pushing the plug-in sales boundaries (only) in America, the second generation of the Volt could reach some 10.000 units this year and then step up in 2016.

Tesla Model X - Its production has been pushed back so many times that people wonder if it will land this year, after all there isn't still an official picture of the Real Deal, but having faith that deliveries do start as promised, in September, expect small numbers in the beginning, as Tesla will watch closely how the Falcon Wings Doors behave. Sales target for 2015: 4.000 units.

Volkswagen Passat GTE - There hasn't been many plug-ins in this particular segment, but the recent arrival of the Mercedes C-Class PHEV is just the first of many new players preparing to enter the game, the Passat GTE is another addition, based on the success of the regular Passat and of the Golf GTE, i think this has all the ingredients to replicate their success and reach some 3.000 units.

Hyundai Sonata Plug-In - The Korean automaker has arrived late to the plug-in train, is it ready to pick-up on the lost time? The Sonata PHEV is the first model on which we can evaluate if the Korean brand is going plug-in for real or not. Kia has only sold 1.500 Soul EV this year, so we'd better not expect a lot from these guys...Sales target: 1.500 units

BMW X5 Plug-In - The fourth plug-in of the BMW stable, it will be a strong contender for the Premium SUV PHEV trophy, but the Cayenne has already a big lead for this years trophy. Sales target: 1.500 units.

Volvo XC90 Plug-In - The regular XC90 is having an overwhelming reception and the T8 (PHEV) version waiting list is getting longer and longer...If Volvo can make them fast enough, i would say that some 1.500 units could be registered this year.

Audi Q7 e-Tron - Another addition to the Premium barge large SUV niche, Audi is looking to replicate the plug-in A3 in a XXL format. Sales target: 1.500 units.

BYD Song and Yuan - These smaller plug-in SUV's were shown earlier this year and the question remains: Will they arrive in time to land this year? If so, will they sell in significant numbers? My guess is a December launch, just in time to enter this year ranking.


  1. AnonymousJuly 22, 2015

    Hello, wonderful job. Just one thing... It is Audi Q7 e-tron not A7.

    1. Ups, now with the correct name. Thanks for the input.

  2. Seeing all the PHEVs coming out from the traditional automakers vs. the one Tesla Model X it reinforces how much the BEV market still depends on Tesla to show the way and push the envelope.

    Btw, I am curious why you think the ramp up will be so slow for the Model X. Is it the slow ramp up for the Model S or the complexity of the X with falcon doors as such?

    1. Complexity of the X with the falcon doors and the fact that Tesla being quality-obsessed, that's why they take so long to lauch their products and ramp up production.

      Of course, the end result pays up for the delay... :-)