2018 New Models

A Segment (City Cars)



Zhidou D3 EV

With the five best selling models in this segment coming from China, overseas legacy OEMs have no chance in succeding in this market on a global level, except on the (Not so) Cheap and Chic niche, where FIAT continues to waste the 500e potential by only offering it in a limited number of markets, so 2018 should continue to see the number of new small EVs increase in China, trying to replicate the BAIC EC-Series success. My bet lies on the Zhidou D3 EV, it won't reach the EC-Series sales numbers, but will probably reach the class podium seat, a year from now.

B Segment (Subcompacts)

Nissan Micra

No major news in this class, except for the promised EV version of the new Nissan Micra which, should it arrive, will face stiff competition, starting with its Renault Zoe and the BMW i3, the Japanese hatch won't be able to reach these two, but it could have a shot at Third Place.

C Segment (Compacts)

2018 Nissan Leaf

The most popular EV in the World, the Nissan Leaf, had a major facelift and will start to be delivered in most markets this year, Nissan has big ambitions for the new version, with a sales target of 150.000 units, possibly earning it the class best seller status and a podium seat in the PEV ranking.

D Segment (Midsize)

Tesla Model 3

The Tesla Model 3, the EV that everyone is talking about, technically landed in 2017, but mass production will only start in 2018, so the Tesla Model 3 will possibly be the major introduction this year, being the main candidate for Best Selling PEV in 2018, with 200k/250k units likely. Another interesting addition is the Honda Clarity PHEV, also technically a 2017 model, will have its full potential shown this year, willing to keep up with the sales of the German midsizers, particularly the increasingly successful BMW 330e.

E Segment (Full Size)

Porsche Mission E

With the German Autobahn-PHEV-bruisers still far from running at the same sales pace of the all-conquering Tesla Model S, the Freemont-made car will only have a serious contender in 2019, when the Porsche Mission E is set to land. Will it outsell the Model S? Doubt it, but will likely make a dent in the Tesla Sport-Sedan sales, the first to do so...

F Segment (Full Size Luxury)

Audi A8 PHEV

If this year the Porsche Panamera PHEV trounced the established players, easily winning the race, the upcoming Audi A8 PHEV will have the same PHEV hardware as the Porsche, but despite this, it will have a harder time to make an impact, i believe Audi would already be pleased if it reached a podium seat...

SUV / CUV

2018 Porsche Cayenne PHEV

With the mainstream auto market suffering from a Crossover fever, the PEV niche is also not immune to it, with the Hyundai Kona BEV, Kia Niro PHEV/BEV and Yuan PHEV/BEV twins making an impact in the class, if the respective brands manage to make enough of them, which isn't a given, these are models that could possibly run for a Top 5 spot in the class.

The new Porsche Cayenne PHEV will try to replicate the success of the 2nd Gen Panamera PHEV in the Full-size Premium SUV class, trying to reach a podium seat in its niche.

Fully electric Premium SUVs will start arriving in 2018, with the Jaguar i-Pace and Audi e-Tron being the first representatives of the so-called Model X killers. If the German model is set to arrive only by the end of the year, and in limited quantities, qualifying it more as a 2019 model, the British model is set to arrive sooner (Summer?), and by the end of this year we should have an idea of how big will be its impact on the market.

A bit of a Dark Horse, with a lot to prove, but also with plenty to win, the NIO ES8 is the first mass-market model from a Chinese startup to arrive. Will it be any good? Will the brand be able to make it in large quantities? More importantly, in the long run, will buyers continue to flock into it by the thousands?

So...Lots of stuff going on in this class.

MPV / Minivans

With two of the class Best Sellers (Ford C-Max Energy and Mercedes B250e) ending their career, and no big novelties in 2018, it's up to the BMW 225xe AT, and the oldtimer BYD e6 the difficult task to sustain the momentum in 2018.

LCV / Vans

Nissan e-NV200

In a segment dominated until 2017 by just two models, the Renault Kangoo ZE and Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia, the delivery ramp up of the StreetScooter Work allowed it to race with the previous two, with the Nissan e-NV200 / Evalia still leading the (small) pack. With the Japanese van set to receive the 40 kWh battery from the new Nissan Leaf soon, expect it to breakaway from the remaining two this year.

Sports Cars / Convertibles

BMW i8 Spyder

After putting to shame the little competition it had over these last four years, the BMW i8 is almost synonymous with this category, entering in 2018 with upgrades and the long awaited Spyder version, so at least until the arrival of the new Tesla Roadster, the i8 has this market all to itself.

Pick-up Trucks

Tesla Model ????

With the end of the Mitsubishi Minicab Miev Truck, of which were made some 1.000 units over a four year span, this highly profitable class have only competitors from China, with the 2017 Best Selling Electric Pick-up Truck  being the Dongfeng Rich EV selling some 400 units. 

In fact, the largest number of electric pick-ups of a single model still date date back for the Dinosaur Era (Ford Ranger EV, with 1.705 units delivered from 1998 to 2002).

 It seems we all have to wait for Tesla to shake things up with its own Pick-up Truck...

Markets Roundup September 2015

Dieselgate: Early signs on VAG Plug-in models sales

Although still early to see definitive trends, for that we will need to wait for October and November numbers, i tried to spot in the September sales some early signs of any disruption pattern in Volkswagen Group's most significant EV's, namely the e-Golf and e-Up! pure electrics and the Golf GTE and Audi A3 e-Tron plug-in hybrids.

The scandal can work in two ways for these cars, either consumers opt out in any model from VAG, hurting their sales, or buyers switch from a regular VW diesel model to their Plug-in version, as can be the case in the Audi A3 or VW Golf. 

So, let's have a look at last month performance, model by model:


Volkswagen Golf GTE

- Sales drop in Netherlands, with 335 units, worst result in six months and dropping to Third in September, after four consecutive months as Best Seller;

- Worst sales month ever in Belgium, with eight units;

- Personal best in Portugal, with eight units.


Volkswagen e-Golf

- No sales last month in Spain, the first time it has happened since it landed there.


Audi A3 e-Tron

- 76 units were sold in France, its worst result in six months and the first time since February it dropped from the 100 units/month;

- Significant drop in the Netherlands and Norway, worst result since January in both countries;

- Personal best in Spain, with 21 units.


Volkwagen e-Up!

- Worst performance of the year in Norway;

- Only two units in Austria, the lowest sales level in six months;


As it is possible to see, the worst performers in September were the Audi A3 e-Tron and VW Golf GTE, with significant drops in high volume markets, like Netherlands or Norway, wih only two bright spots in secondary, low volume markets.

The pure electric models e-Golf and e-Up! seem to have coped better with the rough times, but truth be told, their general numbers aren't as high as their plug-hybrid relatives, and in the case of the little e-Up! sales have been dropping also for quite a long time.

 






Trends in the G8 

Renault rules in France, BYD does it also in China, while in Japan, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV finally has a real shot at beating the Nissan Leaf for the Best Seller Title, something it has consistently been doing in the UK for the last year.

Tesla manages to keep to itself the leadership in the US, while Volkswagen had significant drops in Norway and Netherlands (See above), and finally in Germany, Volkswagen leads in the manufacturers ranking, but in the models chart, the First Place is very much open to debate, with five(!) models with realistic aspirations to be the Best Seller, with only three months to go!

Looking at Market Share, the only two dark spots are the US (0,6% now vs 0,7% last year), continuing to wait for better days (*cough* Chevrolet Volt II *cough*), and Japan, on a sales dive with no end in sight, but looking at the rest of the pack, things vary between the moderatly optimistic, like France (1,28% vs 0,91%) or Germany (0,63% vs 0,44%) and China's exponential growth (0,71% vs 0,25%), with Norway (22% vs 14%) and Netherlands (6% vs 4%) also growing at a fast pace.

Trends in other Markets 

Looking at other markets, we should mention the extraordinary result of the Outlander PHEV in Spain and Portugal, taking the lead there, as well as the extraordinary results of Tesla in Denmark, Switzerland, Austria and Hong Kong, not only leading the EV ranking in those countries, but also making an impact in its size class, sometimes putting to shame the usual leaders from BMW, Audi and Mercedes.

Belgium buyers continue their love affair with the Porsche Cayenne Plug-in, like Sweden does with the Outlander PHEV and Ireland with the Nissan Leaf, while the Renault Fluence ZE is having a rebirth in South Korea, in the shape of the Samsung SM3 ZE, which is now the leader of the EV market in this high potential market.

Looking at Market Share, if the EV markets in Estonia and Latvia have just imploded, others are the other way around, with Hong Kong rising exponentially to 3% share, up from 0,46% last year, Switzerland is also up significantly to 1,95%, up from 0,75%, while in the Ukraine plug-ins are now at 1% share, up from virtually...Zero last year.

New Models for the Rest of 2015

New Models for the Second Half of the Year

Pure electrics have been resisting quite well to the new wave of PHEV's, mostly thanks to Tesla and the Nissan Leaf, but in the second half of year more Plug-in Hybrids will arrive, and PHEV Share should rebound, not only the refreshed Chevrolet Volt will make its impact, but there's a bundle of new PHEV's coming, particularly SUV's, and only one pure electric to help balance the numbers:

BYD Tang - The manufacturer claims this SUV has even more demand than the Qin, so the chinese  EV leadership should belong to it in the future. Sales target for this year: 15.000.

Chevrolet Volt II - Pushing the plug-in sales boundaries (only) in America, the second generation of the Volt could reach some 10.000 units this year and then step up in 2016.

Tesla Model X - Its production has been pushed back so many times that people wonder if it will land this year, after all there isn't still an official picture of the Real Deal, but having faith that deliveries do start as promised, in September, expect small numbers in the beginning, as Tesla will watch closely how the Falcon Wings Doors behave. Sales target for 2015: 4.000 units.

Volkswagen Passat GTE - There hasn't been many plug-ins in this particular segment, but the recent arrival of the Mercedes C-Class PHEV is just the first of many new players preparing to enter the game, the Passat GTE is another addition, based on the success of the regular Passat and of the Golf GTE, i think this has all the ingredients to replicate their success and reach some 3.000 units.

Hyundai Sonata Plug-In - The Korean automaker has arrived late to the plug-in train, is it ready to pick-up on the lost time? The Sonata PHEV is the first model on which we can evaluate if the Korean brand is going plug-in for real or not. Kia has only sold 1.500 Soul EV this year, so we'd better not expect a lot from these guys...Sales target: 1.500 units

BMW X5 Plug-In - The fourth plug-in of the BMW stable, it will be a strong contender for the Premium SUV PHEV trophy, but the Cayenne has already a big lead for this years trophy. Sales target: 1.500 units.

Volvo XC90 Plug-In - The regular XC90 is having an overwhelming reception and the T8 (PHEV) version waiting list is getting longer and longer...If Volvo can make them fast enough, i would say that some 1.500 units could be registered this year.

Audi Q7 e-Tron - Another addition to the Premium barge large SUV niche, Audi is looking to replicate the plug-in A3 in a XXL format. Sales target: 1.500 units.

BYD Song and Yuan - These smaller plug-in SUV's were shown earlier this year and the question remains: Will they arrive in time to land this year? If so, will they sell in significant numbers? My guess is a December launch, just in time to enter this year ranking.

Markets Roundup January 2015

VW Golf plug-in Twins

The Golf Twins success (Or how Plug-ins are going mainstream)

After ending 2014 with numbers a bit below of what was expected from a manufacturer like Volkswagen (It was #1 only in Norway), the german brand had a great beginning this year, leading several rankings throughout Europe, with #1's in the Netherlands (GTE), Norway (e-Golf) and Germany (GTE), and the GTE leading the Best Selling PHEV ranking in France and Switzerland.

If in Norway this sudden burst in sales is explained by the addition of the Heat Pump and the fact that electric cars are already mainstream (They had 18% share last month), the Golf GTE recent success in Europe is something else, as plug-ins expansion progresses, they are starting to go beyond the early adopters niche and going into mainstream buyers, where expectations regarding cars are a bit more conservative, as they prefer established brands and models (What could be more established than the Best Selling car in Europe?) and without range issues, that's why the e-Golf failed to succeed, early adopters preferred other electric cars to a high priced everyday Golf, while at the same time it didn't appealed to mainstream consumers, as the cheaper ICE Golf had the ability to go everywhere without a sweat.

Here enters the VW Golf GTE, an established car without range issues that can still go 50 kms fully electric, on top of that, it benefits from the special aura that sporty Golf's enjoy (Let's call it the  GTI-Factor), and all for a decent price (+/- 37k €, VW wasn't greedy this time), making it an attractive proposition for anyone buying a car, plug-in or otherwise.

Add that to the end of the Opel Ampera (Those 15.000 buyers will eventually need to replace their aging plug-ins...), disappearing what it could be it's #1 PHEV rival, and several incentives to plug-in car buyers and you have a perfect storm for the success of the GTE, it might even overcome the Outlander PHEV as the Best Seller in Europe.

Another interesting proposition is the Audi A3 e-Tron, basically the same package, but with a more premium flavor, the regular A3 was #10 in the 2014 European Best Selling Cars ranking, so anything below that position in the EV ranking would be a failure for the german car, especially considering that only cars on the regular Top 10 Euro ranking have a plug-included mass-produced version (Golf, A3 and Clio-based Zoe).


 







Trends in the G8 

In the Top Markets volumes, there were a few surprises, some good (UK, Norway, Netherlands and China continue beat the best expectations), others not so good (The US and Japan demand is softening).

In the models rankings the BMW i3 won its first podium seat in the US, the aforementioned the Golf GTE surprised in several markets, just like the e-Golf in Norway, a market where the Outlander PHEV scored a Third Spot, a first for a plug-in hybrid, in Germany the Kia Soul EV got a surprising #4 (And best-selling foreign car, step by step the korean car is making its way to the top).

In China the cat-with-nine-lives Chery QQ EV started the year in Second, only behind the untouchable BYD Qin.

Chery eQ, basically the QQ EV with a decent battery (200 kms range)

Other Markets 
Looking at other markets, there are some record numbers to report, Ireland scored 138 in the first month of the year (The record 256 units sold in the whole year of 2014 should be blown to pieces this year), while Belgium registered 311 plug-ins, almost three times more than it did twelve months ago...

Regarding EV Share, some markets gave great indications for the rest of the year, with Switzerland joining the 1% Club (1,49% vs 0,75% last year), Ireland jumping from 0,27% to 0,46%, and Hong Kong tripling the EV Share to 1,22%, making it the eighth market to reach 1% barrier, will we see this club reach 10 members by the end of the year? 

Probably, the UK (0,97%) and Belgium (0,78%) will probably be the next in line, but there are other candidates too (Japan, USA, France, Austria, Denmark...).


Sales by Continental Areas 

Looking at sales by Continents, if Europe is well documented here, with the Outlander PHEV and the Golf Twins ahead, the other two continental areas with significant EV Volumes have been largely undocumented as whole markets, so here's an insight on them:

Americas

Pl	Model	Jan.
1	Nissan Leaf	1.202
2	Tesla Model S	1.100
3	BMW i3	704
4	Chevrolet Volt	648
5	Ford Fusion Energi	436

Basically it's the US ranking with Canada added, the top 5 positions remain the same, with Tesla benefiting from a great month in the Northern Neighbor to reach closer to the Leaf, while the Volt also sees a small uptick in sales, thanks to the Canadian appetite for the GM car.


Asia - Pacific

Pl	Model	Jan. '15
1 2	BYD Qin Nissan Leaf	1.911 1.413
3	Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV	915
4	Chery QQ EV	552
5	BYD e6	423
6 7 8 9 10	Zotye E20 Toyota Prius Plug-In Chery eQ Roewe 550 PHEV Tesla Model S	408 400 355 348 215

Here things become more intriguing, with the Top Two markets (China and Japan) taking the shots and with only two models present in both (Tesla Model S and Nissan Leaf / Venucia Morning Wind), this is a mix between both markets, the big news is that unlike what many might think, the Best Selling Plug-in here is not the Nissan Leaf, but a chinese car: The BYD Qin numbers in China are so high, that they are enough to outsell the whole APAC sales of the Leaf!

Also of notice is the fact that the best-selling non-asian car here is Tesla's Model S, only #10 in the ranking.

New Cars for 2014

Here are some plug-ins that will make headlines in 2014:

VW e-Golf: Should they be willing to sell it and it could a hard competitor for Leaf  & others

BYD Qin: Finally on sale, BYD has high hopes for it, waiting to sell some 2.000 units per month

Cadillac ELR: Great looks, but at 70.000$, it's Tesla territory. Model S or this? Uhm...

Audi A3 e-tron: With typical Audi efficiency, the e-tron will be here by mid-'14. 1.000 sales/month?

MB B-Class ED: It's a three-pointed star, it's got a "Tesla Inside" banner, but will it get a success story to go with it?

Tesla Model X: It will  arrive late next year and the question for many is "Will it build on the Model S success?"