Israel March 2020 (Draft)

5,8% share!

After a long sleep, the Israeli plugin market woke up last year, reaching 1.5% share, and this year things got even better, with the 2020 PEV share reaching 2,1%, mostly thanks to the outlandish result of March, not only the plugin market reached a record 1.070 units, but it did so in a month where the overall market crashed 36%, due to the COVID pandemic lockdown measures. Now, imagine where it could have gone, if it had been a normal month...

Another positive sign is the fact that this once PHEV-friendly market (the Top 5 in 2018 was 100% PHEV) is getting blue-ish as time goes by, with the BEV share growing from just 7% in 2018, to the current 46%.   

One of the main contributers for the 5.8% share of March was the Audi e-Tron, winning its first Best Seller of the Month trophy this year, thanks to a record 186 registrations, allowing it to jump into the 3rd position.

The current leader is still the surprising MG eZS EV, proving that its formula "lots of car crossover for not a lot of money" is working in markets that are usually far from the spotlight.

But then again, with these kinds of market share (5,8% in March & 2,1% in 2020), the Big Boys are starting to take notice, as proven by the announced Tesla introduction in the country.

the MG crossover is followed by last year leader, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, while outside the podium, the Hyundai Ioniq Electric also makes an appearance, making a majority of BEVs in this Top 5, something unseen since 2014, when a certain Renault Fluence was that year Best Seller...

Markets Roundup - December 2019

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2019:

China

* BAIC EU-Series #1 - First time winner, but in 2020 it will have more competition; 

* 1.2 million units - What a roller coaster, great first half of the year, then after the incentives change, a stark drop, with December ending with a sign of hope. And the Market Share reached 5.5%, above the share of the USA or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Second win for the Californian, but in 2020 the Model Y lands, so...Enjoy it while you can, Model 3;

* 325.000 sales - Poor second half of the year, leading to slight drop, to 2.0% share.

Europe

* Tesla Model 2 #1 - First title for Tesla in Europe, to be repeated in 2020, but in 2021, things should become more interesting;

* 564.000 units - Sales increased the pace, with the PEV share reaching 3.6%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now owning 64% of the market. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 44.000 units - What can i say, sales have (again) dropped and the PEV share has dropped to 0.8%. Disappointing.

Canada

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - Canada's darling. At least until the Model y lands...

* 51.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.6%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - A new year, a new win for the Crossover, scoring another all-time record (14.000 units). The Kona EV is the leader in Korea.

* 34.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.9%. A mention to the Hyundai Nexo Fuel Cell, that registered 4,000 units, leading to a 0.2% share, being the only place FCEVs started to become common(ish).

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Tesla Model 3 lands and immediately becomes the Best Seller. PEV share jumped to 2.6% (up from 1.4% in 2018);

Israel - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV was #1, market has beaten the 2018 records and reached 1.5% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Australia - Doubling sales (9,000 units), with the Tesla Model 3 stealing the show and winning the Best Seller title. The market share needle is finally starting to move (0.9% PEV share);

Brazil - Volvo XC60 PHEV was the Best Seller, in a year that things finally started to move upwards (1,500 units), although share wise, we are still rock bottom (0.1%);

Mexico - Tesla Model 3 steals the show and pulls the market up (1,400 units in total), but share wise, it is still in its infancy (0.1%);

Colombia - Fast growth is moving up the needle (0.5% share), with the BMW i3 becoming the 2019 Best Seller;

South Africa - Jaguar and Land Rover came into play and together with BMW, they are the only ones pulling the market up, allowing it to reach record heights (300 units...);

Taiwan - Tesla Model 3 disrupts the market, making it grow 5-fold, while the plugin share finally starts to move (0.4% share);

Hong Kong - Although still far from the 2017 record (4,000 units), the 2019 result (2,000 units) allowed it to come alive again and reach some 5% share;

Singapore - A record 1,400 units allowed this market to reach 1.9%, with the 2019 Best Seller being the Hyundai Kona EV; 

Israel September 2019

Audi e-Tron shines in Israel

After a long absence, Israel is back at EVS, since then many things have happened, as this once PHEV-heavy market, the Top 5 Best Sellers of 2018 were all plugin hybrids, has become a bit more BEV-friendly, with BEV share growing from just 7% last year, to 17% (32% in September), mostly thanks to the resounding success of the Audi e-Tron, that jumped to the 3rd spot, and could climb higher in the ranking until the end of the year.   

The current PEV share is at 1.4%, which is already a surprisingly good result, but the September share reached an amazing 2.7%, thanks to 471 units, the second best result ever, with the Audi SUV proving to be decisive for this great result, thanks to 129 registrations, the first time a single model reaches three-digits in a single month. A prelude of things to come?

Anyway, the current leader is still the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, followed by another Midsize SUV, the Volvo XC60 PHEV, while outside the podium, the Mercedes E300e plugin hybrid also makes an appearance.

Just below this Top 5, we find the BMW 530e, just 7 units below its arch-rival from Mercedes.

(Quick) Markets Roundup Q1 2019

We now know what is going on in the top markets (China, Europe, USA...), but what about other significant ones?

1. Japan is down 22%, to 14k;

2. Canada is up 33%, to 10k;

3. Same goes for South Korea, up a significant 59%, to to 6k units;

The remaining markets already above 1,000 units are: Malaysia, Australia and Israel, with the Aussies, up an impressive 41%. Are plugins finally moving the needle in Australia?

Markets Roundup December 2018

I. Big Markets

Let's see how the Big EV Markets fared in 2018:

China

* BAIC EC-Series #1 - Once again the winner, but in 2019 it will have more competition; 

* 1.1 million units - At some point i started to expect 1 million units, and as the year came to an end, not only it got there, but actually surpassed it!. And the Market Share reached 4.2%, a bit more than the 2%-something of the USA or Europe. 

USA

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - First win for the Californian, the first of a couple wins that the nameplate will have until the Model Y lands;

* 350.000 sales - Strong second half of the year, leading to a 2.1% share.

Europe

* Nissan Leaf #1 - The Japanese hatchback won its first title since 2013, but it shouldn't repeat the feat in 2019, as that trophy should go for the Tesla Model 3;

* 386.000 units - Sales continue to grow steadily, with the PEV share reaching 2.5%, with plug-in hybrids losing importance, with BEV's now outselling PHEV's. 

Japan

* Nissan Leaf #1 - Despite lack of real competition, the Nissan hatch did its part and won another title;

* 52.000 units - What can i say, sales have dropped 7% and the PEV share has dropped to 1%. Big disappointment.

Canada

* Tesla Model 3 #1 - The new darling in Canada. How could it be otherwise?

* 43.000 units - Strong, steady growth, with the market share ending at a record 2.2%.

South Korea

* Hyundai Kona EV #1 - Veni, vidi, vici. In only 8 months in the market, the Hyundai model surpassed everyone else, scoring even a new all-time record (11.000 units). The Kona EV is the EV Disruptor in Korea.

* 31.000 sales - A hot market, with doubling sales, and the market share now reaching 1.7%. How high will it reach in 2019? 3%? 4%? 5%? 

III. Other markets

A few words on smaller markets:

New Zealand - Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV turf, PEV share above 1% (1.4%);

Israel - Mercedes GLC350e was #1, market has beaten all records in 2018 and reached 1.4% share. Too many PHEVs, though;

Malaysia - BMW is king here, market is stable at around 1.2% share;

Australia - Slow growth, with the Tesla Model S winning the Best Seller title;

Brazil - Symbolic sales (less than 200 units) in such a large market, BYD e5 was the Best Seller;

Russia - Ditto for Russia (less than 300 units), Nissan Leaf stole the 2018 title from Tesla;

Mexico - Nissan Leaf wins again, in a falling market;

UAE - Tesla turf;

South Africa - BMW are the only ones doing something here;

Colombia - Fast growth is starting to move the needle (0.3% share), Renault Twizy is a popular choice, same as the BMW i3;

Taiwan - Stagnating market (less than 200 units), this time the local Luxgen LCS EV won #1;

India - Considering the size of the market, the 2.000 units registered could be considered symbolic. Tata and Mahindra are the only ones on the market, with compliance vehicles;

Thailand - Less than 1.000 units, the 2018 trophy was still for BMW, but Hyundai should steal the 2019 title.

Israel May 2018

Back from the Dead

After a looong absence, Israel is back at EVS, since then a lot has happened, the Better Place project went belly up, and with it the local plug-in market also disappeared (Down from a 0.4% peak in 2012), but in the meantime, regular HEVs surged and became mainstream, with the current leader in the general ranking being the Hyundai Ioniq Hybrid, while the Kia Niro is also a Top 10 presence, with Israel becoming a sort of HEV Holy Land, so are PHEVs also surfing the Hybrid wave?   

The response is a loud "YES!", despite BEVs being still a symbolic presence (Basically a couple of dozen Zoe), plug-in hybrids joined the current Hybrid Fever, mostly thanks to the European Premium brands, allowing the PEV market to reach an impressive 1.3% this year.

The current leader is the Volvo XC60 PHEV, followed by two other Midsize SUVs, the Mercedes GLC350e and the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, while outside the podium, two other Mercedes make the Top 5.

Just below this Top 5, we find the BMW PHEVs and the Audi A3 e-Tron, all above the three digits. 

Markets Roundup December 2013 (Special Edition)

Ford C-Max Energi: Miss

I. A Year Ago - Hits and Misses

In the end of last January, i have made some sales predictions regarding 2013, let's see how they worked out:

USA

* 15.000 sales for the C-Max Energi - Not even half (7.154), miss;

* 6.000 sales for the Fusion Energi - 6.090 units sold, right on target;

* 12.000 sales for Tesla - 17.650 sales, Tesla consistently outpaced predictions, including their owns;

* 90-110.000 sales for the US EV market - 96.034 units, comfortably within the prediction boundaries.

Japan

* 6.000 units for the Outlander PHEV - Some 10.000 sold this year, with production problems. Not  even Mitsu was this expecting such a sales success;

* 29.000 sales for the Japanese EV Market - Around 30.000 units, hit;

France

* 2.000-4.000 sales for the Renault Zoe - 5.511 sales. Looking back, i was surprisingly skeptical of the Zoe, i mean, the french supermini wasn't a sales success, but it also wasn't as bad as i predicted; 

*14-16.000 sales for the French EV Market - 14.905 sales, right in the middle of the prediction boundaries.

Germany

* 10.000 sales for the German EV Market - 6.714 sales, well behind expectations. Miss.

Netherlands

* 2.200 sales for the Prius Plug-In - 2.364 units, saved by the last quarter sales. Hit;

* 3.500 sales for the Opel Ampera - With 2.208 units sold, even the sales from the last quarter weren't enough to reach near the prediction. Big miss; 

* 9.000 units sold in the Dutch EV market - 23.170 sales, 9.311 of them in December. Who would of thought?

Norway

7.000-8.500 sales in Norway - 8.669 sales, slightly above the best expectations. At the time i was speaking of 6% EV Share like something amazing, as it turns out, the EV Share in Norway is now at 6,10%...

Global EV Sales

200.000 units - Still with data coming in, the number already exceeds 208.000, so 2013 was a good year for plug-ins.


II. Engines of Growth

* By EV Share 

Two of them are easy to discover, after all, plug-in performance were profusely documented in Norway (6,10% in '13 vs 3,12 in '12) and the Netherlands (5,55% in '13 vs 1,10% in '12). But the third market is something of a surprise, with the EV Share in Iceland jumping from 0,21% in 2012 to 0,94% in '13! With all the hydro-thermal energy they have and the small distances associated to an island, EV sales in Iceland should continue to grow exponentially and maybe become something like a Second Norway...

* By Volume

EV Share is important, but even more fundamental is the volume increase, and in this case we had the USA as the main contributor, with more 41.084 units sold regarding 2012, the Netherlands, with more 17.587 sales, and...China, even with a miserable 0,08% EV Share, what matters here is volume and 0,08% of 22 million cars is still a lot of cars, and plug-ins sold more 4.851 regarding last year.


III. 2013 vs 2012

Let's compare #1's of this year with the ones of 2012:

Volt - USA (In '12 - Volt); Canada (Volt)

Leaf - Norway (In '12 - Leaf); UK (Leaf); Spain (Twizy); Denmark (Fluence ZE); Australia (I-Miev); Estonia (I-Miev); Iceland (I-Miev)

Outlander PHEV - Japan (In '12 - Prius Plug-In); Netherlands (Opel Ampera);

Zoe - France (In '12 - Kangoo ZE); Switzerland (Twizy); Austria (Twizy)

V60 Plug-In - Belgium (In '12 - Twizy); Sweden (Prius Plug-In); Finland (Prius Plug-In)

Twizy - Italy (In '12 - Twizy); Portugal (Twizy)

Fortwo ED - Germany (In '12 - Twizy)

Fluence ZE - Hong Kong (In '12 - Leaf)

QQ3 EV - China (In '12 - QQ3 EV)

Examining this, we can see North America as a Volt stronghold, the Leaf stealing trophies from the I-Miev, the Outlander and V60 doing the same at the Prius, the Zoe cannibalizing #1's in Central Europe and the Twizy resisting extinction in the south of the continent.


IV. Other Markets

For some reason (Low volumes, rare data, etc) some markets have been left-out, here is a chance to know some of them:

Israel: Renault Fluence ZE - 436 units; Nissan Leaf (24).

Czech Republic: Nissan Leaf - 16 units; Peugeot iOn (8); Citröen C-Zero (6); BMW i3 (3); Opel Ampera (2); Fisker Karma (1); Porsche Panamera Plug-In (1).

Poland: Nissan Leaf - 15 units; Opel Ampera (5); Tesla Model S (4); BMW i3 (4); Renault Zoe (2); Renault Twizy (2); Smart Fortwo ED (1).

Romania: Renault Fluence ZE - 28 units; Citröen C-Zero (2); Nissan Leaf (1); Toyota Prius Plug-In (1); Tesla Model S (1).

Bulgaria: Renault Twizy - 14 units.

Russia: Mitsubishi I-Miev - 70 units.

Morocco: Renault Twizy - 7 units.

Mexico: Nissan Leaf - 73 units.


V. Predictions for the G7

USA - 110-130.000 units/year, Leaf #1;

Japan - 36-39.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

France - 15-18.000 units/year, Zoe #1;

Netherlands - 15-19.000 units/year, Outlander #1;

Germany - 10.000 units/year, German Car #1;

China - 23.000-28.000 units/year, Qin #1.

Markets Roundup Full Year 2012

Fisker Karma in Monaco

With most of 2012 data in, it's time for a roundup on some EV markets:

- The three countries with highest EV share are Norway (No surprises here) with 3,09%, followed by Estonia (Thanks to Mitsubishi) at 2,35% and finally in third there's the Netherlands with 0,98%;

- The Renault Twizy was #1 in eight countries, hitting a sweet spot in Central and Southern Europe;

- Renault sold some 600 units of the Fluence ZE in Israel, included in the Better Place battery swapping project and at 0,37% share it was not a bad start, but the question is if in 2013 they will resist the black hole that is becoming the Better Place deal;

- Nissan has sold 89 units of the Nissan Leaf in Hong Kong, meaning that Nissan sold more Leaf's there than in the whole of China;

- Where else in the world other than Monaco would the Fisker Karma be a best seller? That's right, the Cadillac Escalade of the  Plug-In market was the second best selling electric vehicle in Monaco, just behind the Renault Twizy. With this in mind, i'm assuming that Tesla will be the best seller this year;

- As proof that the EV market is a fast changing market, Finland had three different leaders in the last three years, starting with the Think City in 2010, followed in '11 by the Citröen C-Zero and the Nissan Leaf last year;

- The I-Miev family has a thing for finding new markets for electric cars and losing them for others in the following years, for example the Mitsubishi I-Miev started the EV market in 2009 in it's home market, being the best selling electric model that year and in 2010, before losing the crown to the Leaf in 2011.  The same thing happened in Germany (#1 in 2010 and 2011, #3 in 2012), Spain (#1 in 2011, #9 in 2012), Switzerland (#1 in 2010 and 2011, #4 in 2012), Monaco (#1 in 2011, #6 in 2012) and Ireland (#1 in 2010, #4 in 2011 and 2012). In 2012 the I-Miev family started to sell cars in new markets like  the Czech Republic (78 units), Iceland (9), Poland (13) and Colombia (28). It remains to be seen in 2013 how many of these will still crown a I-Miev member as best seller...

Other Markets November 2012

This post highlights some curious facts about other EV markets:

- This year it has been sold more EV's (106.000) than in all previous years together (80.000);

- The markets with smaller or negative growth rates are Denmark (+29%), Japan (+4%) and Portugal (-54%). The portuguese negative growth is justified by the end of the 5.000€ government incentive given to EV's;

- Despite government interest and incentives in this kind of cars, EV's represent just 0,018% of the auto market in China, only in Australia there's a lower market share (0,008%) for electric cars;

- The UK market is fragmented, with the top three makers separated by only 23 units (Renault - 563 units, Nissan - 547, Vauxhall - 540);

- Chevrolet Volt has a whopping 73% share of all electric cars in Canada, with 1.168 units;

- Israel, Hong Kong and Estonia EV market are represented by only one model, respectably the Renault Fluence ZE (Included in the Better Place deal), Nissan Leaf and the Mitsubishi I-Miev (Bought by the Estonian government);

- The Volt family has the top spot in three countries (USA, Netherlands, Canada);

-  Renault's Twizy quadricycle is #1 in six countries (Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Austria, Belgium, Portugal), just like the LCV Kangoo ZE in its home market (France) and the Fluence ZE in Denmark and Ireland;

- The Nissan Leaf is number one in three markets (Norway, Australia, Finland);

- The BYD E6 insures a number one spot in its home market (China);

- Finally, the Prius Plug-In wins at home (Japan) and in Sweden;

- Splitting sales by regional areas, GM dominates the Americas with almost half of the market, just like Toyota does in Asia and Europe is Renault's turf, with a 42% market share, thanks mostly to the Twizy, the best selling vehicle there, where one in four electric vehicles is a Twizy.